GoSooners Bowl Season Thread With "Running Dogs"!

[GoSooners]

Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
WM is one of my "running dogs". And I really like this play. Although Rice has had a good year, I consider the CUSA this year to be one of the weakest conferences in football. There is simply no defense played in this league. And Rice's lack of defense has shown time and time again this year. Even going out of conference they looked terrible on defense in giving up 38 points to Vandy (their season high). And 31 to Army ( their second best season high to Tulane, another CUSA team). You get the idea. They don't play defense in this league. And second tier CUSA teams like Rice don't normally do good in bowl games. The bottom line here is WM has a QB that is the equal of Chase Clement with Tiller. And I also think he has some better skill players around him, along with more importantly a better defense that gives up 24 points a game to Rice's 35. Plus against arguably better competetion. WM has had probably the toughest schedule inthe MAC in having to travel to Nebraska, and then in league play having to go on the road against the 3 best teams Ball State, Central Michigan, and Buffalo. And they beat Illinois on a nuetral site game. Something that i don't believe Rice could have done. I believe that overall the MAC was a better conference than the CUSA this year. And I look for Western Michigan, who is the most experienced team in the country, to get a win here. I'm keeping all of my plays even for bowl season. But if I was playing this during the season, this would be at least a 3 star play. I really like WM in this spot.

 

[GoSooners]

You got a better # than Dr. Bobby! :lol:

Yeah, like I told Dirtydog above, I got it at Bodog at +9 this morning. Dr. Bob needs to start reading my posts earlier..LOL

 

[GoSooners]

Bowl plays:


Wake Forest (-3) over Navy **
BYU (+3) over Arizona **
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **

 

[jblonghorn]

GS, have you heard anything about Iglesias or Gresham being injured in practice? There's another thread floating around stating this.....

 

[GoSooners]

GS, have you heard anything about Iglesias or Gresham being injured in practice? There's another thread floating around stating this.....

They are both fine and ready to go. There's no injuries on the OU team besides Murray and Granger.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

let's do it this weekend gosooners...

 

[GoSooners]

let's do it this weekend gosooners...

Thanks Pags...Hopefully we'll get the weekend started good in these bowls. I'll be talking to you later today...BOL

 

[BETNHI]

Thanks for the insight GS, and good luck.

 

[GoSooners]

South Florida-Memphis (OVER 53) **
This is another game where I like the total much more than I do the spread. USF's offensive numbers have gone down the last 4 games because they have played statistically the best defenses in the Big East this last month. Before that this team was averaging 35 points per game. These past few games they've played defenses who average giving up just 320 total yards per game. Memphis gives up about 360 ypg in a weak conference. And their stats are a little skewed because they haven't had to face either Tulsa or Houston, the two most prolific offensive teams in the league. They got lit up for 41 and 35 points (Ole Miss, Louisville) when they played a couple BCS teams with a pulse. Memphis is averaging scoring 28 points a game. And some of this was without their QB Hall, who went down for 3 games this season when he got hurt in the East Carolina game. Memphis should be at full strength offensively for this game. And I think they can have some success against USF, who has given up their share of points against good passing teams (Rutgers 49, Kansas 34). Playing in a controlled enviornment indoors I expect both teams to put up the points. I expect USF to at least get to their 35 average. And I think Memphis has a very good chance to get to 21 here..I like the over.

 

[GoSooners]

Thanks for the insight GS, and good luck.

Thanks BETNHI...BOL this bowl season.:toast:

 

[GoSooners]

Bowl plays:


Wake Forest (-3) over Navy **
BYU (+3) over Arizona **
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) **

 

[CLefty]

Bowl plays:


Wake Forest (-3) over Navy **
BYU (+3) over Arizona **
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) **

Are these weighted the same (2 Stars?). Best of luck!

 

[GoSooners]

Are these weighted the same (2 Stars?). Best of luck!

All my plays are going to be the same this bowl season. Right now, I think my strongest two plays are Western Michigan and the over in the USF/Memphis game...Good luck.:toast:

 

[GoSooners]

Fellas....I may possibly have a play on the CSU-Fresno game since CSU is one of my running dogs. I'm still looking at it to decide if I want to play the Rams. I hate betting games where the defenses of both teams are giving up more yards than their offenses are gaining. But this game might still be worth a shot.

Something I was talking to a fellow capper about today pertaining to these bowl spreads. I also brought this up last year in my bowl thread. Teams who are dogs of 7 points or more covered a high percentage of the time in these bowls games. And favorites of 6.5 points or less also covered a good percentage of the time. A friend told me that in the 2005-06 season that no double digit bowl favorite covered that season. And dogs of 7 or more were 10-1 vs the spread with 7 outright winners!

 

[CoolBreeze22]

Running Dog #'s for Wake Forest/Navy

Navy 1.20 Advantage

Navy qualifies as a running dog play falling into the main grouping that cashed at a 71% clip and a subset group that qualified at 54%.

a few nuggets...

Wake Forest was 0-3 SU this season when Riley Skinner threw an Interception. 7-2 SU when he didn't throw an interception. Wake Forest had 6 turnovers in their 24-17 home loss earlier this season to Navy. Navy's "small" defensive line completely dominated Wake Forest's run game holding them to 43 yards on 31 carries, needless to say Wake was facing 2nd and 3rd and long all day long. Skinner was picked 4 times and Wake Forest also lost 2 fumbles. Navy lost 2 fumbles, giving Navy a +4 turnover edge that day yet Navy was only able to come away with a 7 point victory. Can Wake avoid the turnovers?? Can they run on Navy, or at least try to move the ball with short passes throwing on first down? Just a few things to consider.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

Something I was talking to a fellow capper about today pertaining to these bowl spreads. I also brought this up last year in my bowl thread. Teams who are dogs of 7 points or more covered a high percentage of the time in these bowls games. And favorites of 6.5 points or less also covered a good percentage of the time. A friend told me that in the 2005-06 season that no double digit bowl favorite covered that season. And dogs of 7 or more were 10-1 vs the spread with 7 outright winners!

That'a a great angle to look at in the December bowls, not so much for the ones in January. Over the last 10 year December dogs of 6 or more have gone something like 49-23 ATS, 5-1 last year. Those early bowls often have such a disparity in the motivation of the teams playing.

Here's a link to a fast scan of December dog history:
http://tinyurl.com/4qjhtw

This is one of my favorite angles to look at.

 

[GoSooners]

That'a a great angle to look at in the December bowls, not so much for the ones in January. Over the last 10 year December dogs of 6 or more have gone something like 49-23 ATS, 5-1 last year. Those early bowls often have such a disparity in the motivation of the teams playing.

Here's a link to a fast scan of December dog history:
http://tinyurl.com/4qjhtw

This is one of my favorite angles to look at.

I was mainly referring to the the pre-January bowls. But 2005 was a great year for dogs. Including your Horns who were 7 point dogs to USC in the NCG. I think one big reason why the dogs don't cover as well in Janauary is because we normally don't get many big spreads of 7 points or more in January. This year is kind of an exception to the rule with all of these double digit BCS games. My bet is they won't all be covered this year.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

I was mainly referring to the the pre-January bowls. But 2005 was a great year for dogs. Including your Horns who were 7 point dogs to USC in the NCG. I think one big reason why the dogs don't cover as well in Janauary is because we normally don't get many big spreads of 7 points or more in January. This year is kind of an exception to the rule with all of these double digit BCS games. My bet is they won't all be covered this year.

Definitely. The January bowls for the most part match up pretty good teams on a talent level pretty close to each other.

There's also less of a factor of teams being disappointed with their bowls in January. Now that a couple of crap bowls are trying to horn in on the January action -- GMAC and International bowl, please move to late December where you ought to be.

I still haven't taken a close look at the DD and near-DD BCS matchups. Those will be tough ones to figure.

 

[Ketch]

I'm pretty much going to follow the same formula as I did last year. We had an outstanding bowl season with the running dogs. The better running teams in general were 22-10 SU and 23-9 ATS last year. But keep in mind that they aren't going to hit this well every year. In the 2006 bowl season the better running teams were 20-12 SU but only 18-14 ATS. So we have to be careful as we go, and to just remember that none of these Running Dogs are set in granite. The underdogs who had the better run numbers were 10-4 ATS last year. And 7-3 (71%) the season before. So that's why you really need to think hard before you go against a running dog. But at times we did last year. Remember the Arkansas/Missouri game. Arkansas had the much better run numbers and were the dogs in that game. But because of the other strong angles surrounding the game that went against Arkansas, I was on Missouri. So there will be exceptions to the rule. And I've already seen a couple running dogs that I will in all likihood be playing against. Here is the list of running dogs for this year:


Navy
Colorado St.
BYU
Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic
Wisconsin (HUGE)
La Tech
Western Michigan
Oregon (HUGE-Better defense too)
Air Force
Nebraska
Ole Miss
Kentucky
Tulsa

After crunching the numbers I'm having to go back and rethink some of these games. Especially Oregon/OSU, since my first impressions were OSU huge. But I'm a big believer in this system. And if neither of these teams give me a good enough reason to think otherwise, I will probably end up being on Oregon.


I just wanted to say one more thing concerning the BCS title game. First, anything that comes out of mouth is probably going to be through crimson and cream colored glasses for this game. So it's probably better I keep my mouth shut concerning this game Personally I think OU has just as many arguments why they should win this game as Florida. I won't be betting this game because I've already got a preseason prop bet on OU to win the BCS title at +800. So in a roundabout way I've already bet on it. At any rate, until Stoops comes through and actually wins a BCS game, I just can't put a lot of money on the Sooners. We can have a thousand arguments as to one side, so let's not clog up the thread on who is the better team. Let's just hope it is a great BCS title game for once. Probably the single biggest thing that I've used in helping to determin the winner of this game is the conference bowl records, and who has the best coming in. The winner of the BCS title games since 2000 has had at least as good if not a better conference bowl record as their opponent. So whichever conference, the SEC or Big 12, has the better bowl record coming into this game, this is the way I lean. You can't always go by one teams stats. Especially if they came from an inferior conference. Ohio State/Florida was a good example in the 2006 title game. Ohio State had some phenomenal numbers especially on defense. And they outscored their opponents by an average score of 36-10. But the problem was it was in a weak conference who went 2-5 in the bowl games compared to the SEC going 6-3. Big difference. And it showed in the final score. Here's how the conference win/loss bowl records break down since 2000:


2000 OU beats Florida St. 13-2
Big 12 4-3
ACC 1-4

2001 Miami beat Nebraska 37-14
Big East 4-0
Big 12 3-5

2002 Ohio State beat Miami 31-24
Big 10 5-2
Big East 2-2

2003 LSU beat OU 21-14
SEC: 5-2
Big 12: 2-6

2004 USC beat OU 55-19
Pac-10 3-2
Big 12 4-3

2005 Texas beat USC 41-38
Big 12 5-3
Pac-10 3-2

2006 Florida beat Ohio State 41-14
SEC 6-3
Big 10 2-5

2007 LSU beat Ohio State 38-24
SEC 7-2
Big 10 3-5

As you can see that aside from the 2004 season where the Pac-10 and Big 12 finshed about even, in the modern era of football the best conference in these bowls usually take care of business in the BCS title game. So whoever has the best record between the SEC and Big 12, that is the way I'll probably be leaning. I'll be putting in a couple bowl plays this weekend. I'm still putting a few things together.


Good luck!

Started thread looking for this thanks for bumping

 

[whiskeybent]

Whiskey, could you post the SOS list on here like you did last year it really helped in choosing games, I hope Sooners doesnt mind, thanx in advance!

Sorry for the delay:
SOS
Wake +10.4
Col St +2
S. Florida +8.4
Zona +7.3

S. Miss +5.2

Did we post the official rushing number yet?