Thanks Pags. I thought we had a real shot at 4-0 yesterday. That BYU TD from the Arizona fumble in the first quarter that mysteriously got called back could have changed the whole complexion of the game. But that's the way it goes in these bowls. I also think Arizona's speed kind of took BYU by surprise in that game.
Guys...I'm going to be on Troy or nothing tonight. Right now I'm shopping around and hoping it comes back to -4 before I play it. Troy has a +1.07 run advantage plus a better defense, which was a deadly duo with our bowl teams last year. And when these run teams fall into the trifecta (better run numbers, better defense, better SOS) I advise you to jump on it. The triple threat is just about unbeatable in these bowls. So far the triple threats are 1-0 in the bowls with USF winning yesterday. The next team to come up who is a triple threat is TCU -1.5. So you can guess who I'll be on in that game. Good luck
Troy (-4) over Southern Miss **
I found this number at Bookmaker a few minutes ago. I wouldn't play it over 4 since these are two of the most unpredictable conferences in Division 1 football. But Troy does have a sizeable run margin in this game (+1.07). And the better defense, which is a good combination to have in these bowls. Another reason that it would be advisable to play this game small is the improved defensive play of Southern Miss coming down the stretch. But I'm not sure if their improved defensive play had more to do with playing some very inept offenses or it was actually their defense. This game may look pretty even on paper. But in my opinion Troy has played the tougher schedule. They've had to play at Ohio State, OSU and LSU out of conference. And out of their 12 games, 8 were played on the road. Yet they were still able to win their conference title with just one in-conference loss by one point on the road. I believe the Southern Miss defense is a little better on paper than they actually are. They didn't have to play teams like OSU or LSU that can skew their defensive numbers. Plus they didn't have to play the two most prolific offensive teams in conference Tulsa and Houston. Basically the only two good offensive teams that they played this year were Rice (scored 45), UTEP (40) and Boise (24) at home. I believe when they go up against a good balanced team like Troy, they're going to have some problems. Especially since Troy QB Levi Brown has been hot down the stretch and is hitting 63% of his passes this season. I just think this Troy team is a little more battle hardened, and will play a full 60 minute game here. Troy broke through and got their first bowl win a couple years ago in this same New Orleans Bowl. And after missing out last year, should be ready to come back and get another win. I also give the coaching advantage to 18 year coach Blakeney over first year Southern Miss coach Fedora, who is just happy for his team to be here. I like Troy...But I'm keeping it small.
I found this number at Bookmaker a few minutes ago. I wouldn't play it over 4 since these are two of the most unpredictable conferences in Division 1 football. But Troy does have a sizeable run margin in this game (+1.07). And the better defense, which is a good combination to have in these bowls. Another reason that it would be advisable to play this game small is the improved defensive play of Southern Miss coming down the stretch. But I'm not sure if their improved defensive play had more to do with playing some very inept offenses or it was actually their defense. This game may look pretty even on paper. But in my opinion Troy has played the tougher schedule. They've had to play at Ohio State, OSU and LSU out of conference. And out of their 12 games, 8 were played on the road. Yet they were still able to win their conference title with just one in-conference loss by one point on the road. I believe the Southern Miss defense is a little better on paper than they actually are. They didn't have to play teams like OSU or LSU that can skew their defensive numbers. Plus they didn't have to play the two most prolific offensive teams in conference Tulsa and Houston. Basically the only two good offensive teams that they played this year were Rice (scored 45), UTEP (40) and Boise (24) at home. I believe when they go up against a good balanced team like Troy, they're going to have some problems. Especially since Troy QB Levi Brown has been hot down the stretch and is hitting 63% of his passes this season. I just think this Troy team is a little more battle hardened, and will play a full 60 minute game here. Troy broke through and got their first bowl win a couple years ago in this same New Orleans Bowl. And after missing out last year, should be ready to come back and get another win. I also give the coaching advantage to 18 year coach Blakeney over first year Southern Miss coach Fedora, who is just happy for his team to be here. I like Troy...But I'm keeping it small.
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No, I would actually lean to the over. I almost played the over instead of the line. Both of these teams like to spread the game out on offense. And I think Troy is going to have some problems matching up with the big Southern Miss TE Nelson. And Southern Miss is going to have problems with Troy QB Brown and the running game. It should be a fun game to watch. But like I said, I've only got a very small wager on this game based on Troy's much better run numbers and defense.. I look for Troy to win it. I just hope they can cover the 4 points. It will probably fall close to this number.
Bowl plays:
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona ** (Loss)
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) ** (Win)
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno ** (Win)
Troy (-4) over Southern Miss ** (Loss)
Man that Troy game was a frustrating one to watch. Lots of bad playcalling by the Troy coaches in that game. Out of the 5 bowl games that have been played so far, the final scores in 4 of the 5 have fallen a TD or less within the final spread. And if that RB for Wake hadn't broke that last minute run on Navy, that game would have fallen right on the spread.. So these lines are set pretty tight so far..
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona ** (Loss)
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) ** (Win)
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno ** (Win)
Troy (-4) over Southern Miss ** (Loss)
Man that Troy game was a frustrating one to watch. Lots of bad playcalling by the Troy coaches in that game. Out of the 5 bowl games that have been played so far, the final scores in 4 of the 5 have fallen a TD or less within the final spread. And if that RB for Wake hadn't broke that last minute run on Navy, that game would have fallen right on the spread.. So these lines are set pretty tight so far..
Hey GoSooners!
Thanks for all the hard work this season, I always look at your and Pags11´s threads, both of you are great cappers. Will you be on Notre Dame and TCU?
I really like both of them! Also wondering how you feel about Georgia Tech? I like that one also but it seems EVERYBODY will be on them, scary...
Bad break with the Troy game, If we would have gotten that first down I really think we would have a winner, why would he go backwards after picking up the first down!?
Thanks for all the hard work this season, I always look at your and Pags11´s threads, both of you are great cappers. Will you be on Notre Dame and TCU?
I really like both of them! Also wondering how you feel about Georgia Tech? I like that one also but it seems EVERYBODY will be on them, scary...
Bad break with the Troy game, If we would have gotten that first down I really think we would have a winner, why would he go backwards after picking up the first down!?
Yeah, the Troy player taking a step backwards could very well have cost us the game. It completely took away their momentum in that game. But i also thought that some of the conservative playcalling by the Troy coaches when their team was up by 10 points is what really hurt them, and us. The number one lesson that should have been learned is you don't play conservative in bowl games. Southern Miss sure didn't. They were going for it on fourth down all over the field. Plain and simple, an 18 year coach got outcoached by a first year coach. Fedora kept his players motivated and hungry. Even when they were 10 points down with 7 minutes left. That's a sign of good coaching.
As for TCU and Notre Dame, I still haven't decided 100% on those games, even though this running system strongly favors both teams. Notre Dame will more than likely be a play for me. But as an OU fan you can probably see why i'm a little hesitatant betting against Boise. They are the kind of team who will play the same kind of game that Southern Miss team did last night. They'll take chances in this game. And TCU's defense may have to stop them for 4 and outs instead of 3 and outs. Personally, I think it's going to be a close game. I've even thought if I'm going to take TCU, I might take them on the Moneyline instead of giving any points. I think it could be that close. As for Ga Tech, I have a slight lean to GT. I think the inexperience at QB for LSU matched up against GT's excellent defense could be the difference in that game. In the last game of the season it took a big game by Stafford to keep Georgia in the game with GT. LSU doesn't have that kind of QB. With 4 weeks to prepare for the option, LSU will probably be able to defense it better than Georgia did. But I have my doubts they can completely stop it.
Everything in my database points to TCU, but i have a funny feeling about this one. I don't like fading Boise.
Boise, for the most part, is an untested team. They played Oregon when the Ducks were really banged up and the WAC offered zero resistance as usual. Coming in to the season, Boise only returned 12 starters, so i was kind of surprised to see them decimate their competition like they did. I thought they may be a little weaker this season, so they could be good fade material in this game.
Boise, for the most part, is an untested team. They played Oregon when the Ducks were really banged up and the WAC offered zero resistance as usual. Coming in to the season, Boise only returned 12 starters, so i was kind of surprised to see them decimate their competition like they did. I thought they may be a little weaker this season, so they could be good fade material in this game.
hno:
