Like you, I am concerned about the BYU defense. But I have to disagree about the SOS. With having to play 4 bowl teams on the road, I give the edge to BYU. But before we get too carried away with BYU's defnese, remember that Arizona has given up an average of 30 points a game on the road themselves. And with the exception of Oregon, they really haven't faced an offense this good this year. Plus BYU has the advantage of playing in this bowl for the fourth straight year. While this is Zona's first bowl in 10 years. I also think Mendenhall is the better coach. And he's a defensive strategist. So with 3 weeks to prepare I think he'll have a decent gameplan for the Cats. And even though Zona I'm sure is excited to be going to their first bowl game, I still think the motivation factor belongs to BYU based on their last game losss and Zona's big win over their rival ASU. I'm not going to lie. It's close between these two teams. But in a game like this where I htink it's going to be close, I'm more apt to take the points. But I can understand your argument for Zona. Statistically, they have a little better defense. But I think the advantage ends right there.
GoSooners,
I'm running the numbers on the BYU/Arizona game, I've left out all games against non-D1 opponents. I was hoping you could help with the formula that you used last season. I know you went 23-9 on these plays and a subset within that group went 16-3 so if we can come anywhere close to duplicating last season's results there's alot of $$$ to be made. The numbers I'm showing are...
Arizona Offensive yards per carry 4.13 Opponents def. avg. 4.23
BYU Offensive yards per carry 4.24 Opponents def. avg. 4.30
Arizona Defensive yards per carry 4.19 Opponents rushing avg. 4.25
BYU Defensvie yards per carry 3.88 Opponents rushing avg. 3.88
just looking at the stats you would think BYU would be the play because they have a higher rushing avg and they're better at stopping the run. But if you factor in Arizona holding their opponents to .06 ypc less than their season avg. I think you would have a slight play on Arizona by .02
this is the only example I will post in this thread because I know you and your friend want to get down before the line moves. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks
I'm running the numbers on the BYU/Arizona game, I've left out all games against non-D1 opponents. I was hoping you could help with the formula that you used last season. I know you went 23-9 on these plays and a subset within that group went 16-3 so if we can come anywhere close to duplicating last season's results there's alot of $$$ to be made. The numbers I'm showing are...
Arizona Offensive yards per carry 4.13 Opponents def. avg. 4.23
BYU Offensive yards per carry 4.24 Opponents def. avg. 4.30
Arizona Defensive yards per carry 4.19 Opponents rushing avg. 4.25
BYU Defensvie yards per carry 3.88 Opponents rushing avg. 3.88
just looking at the stats you would think BYU would be the play because they have a higher rushing avg and they're better at stopping the run. But if you factor in Arizona holding their opponents to .06 ypc less than their season avg. I think you would have a slight play on Arizona by .02
this is the only example I will post in this thread because I know you and your friend want to get down before the line moves. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks
I've had several people tell me that their numbers are a little different than the one that my friend's math comes to on some of these run dogs. The three games that are very close either way you look at it is Fresno/Colorado State, Hawaii/Notre Dame and BYU/Arizona. What exactly his formula is I don't know. And he prefers not to give it out. There is a basic way of doing this running dogs system. And it is what poster ajreeb posted back in this thread. I believe it is on page 3 or 4. His numbers are close enough for what we are looking for with this system. And he uses the same formula as I do. One thing is important here. You can't use games against division 1A opponents into the equation. Those games are throw out of this formula because it skews the stats. As for betting these games, my friend pulls the trigger long before I do in betting many of these games. Mainly because he knows what he wants. And he wants to get the number early. For instance he told me he got BYU early at +3.5. And I didn't bet it until I put it in my thread at +3. Normally I like to bet these games just a couple days before they play. I like to get a feel for the line movements and other things before I make up my mind on a game. Everybody does it different with these games. But I've found out in college bowl games that getting a better number really isn't much of an advantage in the long run in these bowls. I'm guessing that out of the 34 bowls, we won't see more than 2 or 3 that kill us with a close spread number.
Agreed their are better things to bet out there. Homer might have had a hand in me playing this for 1 unit. I dont mind the bet, but it is not the best thing out there to be playing. I do not see Wisconsin as a rushing dog though, we will disagree there.
I do not think FSU is young and inexperienced though. Not to build them up, they are what they are which is 8-4 but other than the QB whose warts are apparent ( he dont throw so good) and the OL who are very young but playing very well , FSU is a veteran team.
Anyways best of luck, do not mean to hijack thread. If you think Wisky is a play, go for it.
:howdy:
Hello GoSooners...
Thanks for taking the time to post your insights on the various games thru out this entire season, I have throughly enjoyed the reading week in and week out.
I find myself shaking my head with regard to NC State's upcoming Bowl matchup versus Rutgers and the line that has been placed on the affair, depending on where you look the line opened with Rutgers installed as a 6.5 to 7.0 point favorite and is now listed as 8.5 to 9.0...
....I grabbed the Wolfpack this morning at 5Dimes as soon as I saw they moved the line to NC State +9.
...I personally believe that the odds maker has shaded the line wayyyyyy too high based on "Joe Public's" perception that Rutgers is THAT much better than NC State, that notion by the public bettor is mostly due to that blowout win the Knights had on National TV over a Louisville team that simply did not show up.
In my humble opinion these teams are nearly even in talent and both teams have been as hot as the proverbial firecracker coming down the stretch with regard to NC State winning four straight to close out the regular season including wins over bowl-bound Miami, NC, and WF, as a side note this Wolfpack team has covered 9 of their last 10 outings this year and in each case they were installed as doggies...
I am not trying to take anything away from Rutgers as they won 6 straight to close out their regular season and actually covered their final 8 contests ATS...
...but the point of the matter is that the talent gap is virtually nil between these squads and especially at the QB position as Rutgers Teel finished up the regular season with a TD to INT ratio of 20 to 5 coming down the stretch while the Wolfpack QB Wilson did slightly better percentage-wise with a TD to INT ratio of 16 to 1.
These teams are also nearly equal with regard to coaching staffs as Rutgers HC Schianno has been a godsend to that program, however, his adversary in this match up is Tom O'Brien who is certainly no slouch and actually deserves a higher rating than Schianno based on performance and experience.
GS...Thanks again for all of your hard work this year and take care my friend!
Jim
:toast:
Dirtydog....I completely agree about NCST. When the line was around 7 I thought well okay I can possibly see this line, and I already liked the over total.. But when the line went over 8 this became a play for me on NCST. I think the line going up like this is a direct result of the public having the Rutgers/Louisville 63-14 game embedded in their brains in the last game of the year in prime time. And most of the public has seen very little of NCST. So you put these two things together and you get a good betting opportunity. I feel about the same way as you do with these two teams. They are both about even in talent. And NCST has been playing some good defenses. So getting this amount of points definitely leaves the backddor open at the very least. And although I give Rutgers credit for winning their last 4 games big, those teams they played have all been struggling this year. Especially on offense. This won't be the case with NCST, who has been facing some good ACC defenses. I've already got this game locked in for a small bet at +9 from Bodog. But I'm waiting to see if it goes up any more. The public is flat getting carried away with Rutgers. Something else about NCST coach Tom O'Brien is he is a hell of a bowl game coach. He had his old Boston College team on a 7 bowl game winning streak.
North Carolina St. (+9) over Rutgers **
I think we've said quite a bit about this game already. But I think the big reason why this could be a close game is Russell Wilson. This kid is almost flawless passing the ball. He doesn't make mistakes. Which is the big reason why NCST is not only on a winning streak, their losses have also been close. So it should go a long ways here in a neutral site game. I really like Rugers QB Teel too. But I don't think Rutgers is going to enjoy a QB advantage or the coaching advantage in this game like they've had in the last 6 games when this win streak started. It should be a great game between two hot teams that are more evenly matched than people think. NCST coach O'Brien is excellent at getting his teams ready for a bowl. And he was on a 6 game bowl winning streak at BC before he came over to the Wolfpack. So even if they lose, I don't see NCST going easy.
I think we've said quite a bit about this game already. But I think the big reason why this could be a close game is Russell Wilson. This kid is almost flawless passing the ball. He doesn't make mistakes. Which is the big reason why NCST is not only on a winning streak, their losses have also been close. So it should go a long ways here in a neutral site game. I really like Rugers QB Teel too. But I don't think Rutgers is going to enjoy a QB advantage or the coaching advantage in this game like they've had in the last 6 games when this win streak started. It should be a great game between two hot teams that are more evenly matched than people think. NCST coach O'Brien is excellent at getting his teams ready for a bowl. And he was on a 6 game bowl winning streak at BC before he came over to the Wolfpack. So even if they lose, I don't see NCST going easy.
