There were a couple running dogs last season who had a high rating and lost. But they were few and far between. This running ypc gap was a big concern for me in this game. I was hoping that Wake would be more motivated for this game and jump out to a lead. When Navy has a lead in a game they are so good at shortening a game. Which makes it about impossible for teams to come back and cover on them.
Here are the numbers I came up with for the running dogs. A little different than the numbers GoSooners friend sent him. I removed all opponents(formerly known as 1AA) from all teams schedules and all their opponents schedules.
Navy 1.20.......loss
Fresno .50......71% main group 54% subset from last season
South Florida 1.28.....71% main group 84% subset BIG PLAY!!!!!
Arizona .02...............71% main group 84% subset BIG PLAY!!!!
Navy 1.20.......loss
Fresno .50......71% main group 54% subset from last season
South Florida 1.28.....71% main group 84% subset BIG PLAY!!!!!
Arizona .02...............71% main group 84% subset BIG PLAY!!!!
Bowl plays:
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona **
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) **
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno **
Off to a good (lucky) start. Let's go CSU.
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona **
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) **
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno **
Off to a good (lucky) start. Let's go CSU.
The only reason I can think of why my stats are different than yours is the source of the stats. Some internet sources, etc. are a little different from each other with the numbers. But in the case of BYU/Arizona and Fresno/CSU the running gap is so small that the advantage could go to either team. In CSU's case, the way they are running the ball under Johnson, and the way Fresno's scoring has fallen off in the last month without their leading RB, it makes me lean towards CSU. BYU/Arizona in my opinion is a virtual tossup. But in a case like that, I would rather be getting the points than giving them.
Bowl plays:
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona **
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) **
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno **
Off to a good (lucky) start. Let's go CSU.
Undefeated going into the BYU game.. well done sir. Just hope the law of averages does not come into play as BYU is my biggest play early in this Bowl Season.
Nice job GS, what is your opinion on Mike Stoops? I haven't been able to watch him much because of the lack of exposure that U of A gets but I don't think he is really one of those guys that is cracked up to be a head coach. He has called one of the worst games I have seen in a long time. I thin U of A should be blowing out BYU. Mike Stoops kinda reminds me of Wade Phillips, outstanding DC but awful head coach. If I am not mistaken, OU hasn't had nearly as good of defenses since he left.
I think he was a much better defensive coordinator that he is a head coach. The main reason his team is doing better this year is because of the people he has around him. But 8-4 is probably the best that he can ever hope for in the Pac-10. BYU's mistakes and missed field goals have really killed their momentum tonight. I really thought the coaching mismatch might have got us the cover against Zona. But with a couple minutes left and another missed FG it doesn't look good for BYU.
Great day GoSooners!! I flip-flopped 20 times trying to decide if I would tail you or stick to the running dogs #'s that my stats showed. Unfortunately I went with the numbers hoping worst case scenario I get the split.....sure enough, you nail the first two games....LOL
These are my running dogs #'s and may not be the same as GoSooners #'s...
Plays thus far
Navy.......loss
Fresno.....loss
SouthFlorida........WIN.....BIG PLAY
ARIZONA.............WIN.....BIG PLAY
Troy/S.Miss
Troy 1.17 Advantage....Troy falls into our 71% main group from last season and a subset group that hit 54% last season but is 0-2 thus far this season. Hopefully this is where the subset group starts to get on track. Troy does not qualify as a BIG PLAY.
These are my running dogs #'s and may not be the same as GoSooners #'s...
Plays thus far
Navy.......loss
Fresno.....loss
SouthFlorida........WIN.....BIG PLAY
ARIZONA.............WIN.....BIG PLAY
Troy/S.Miss
Troy 1.17 Advantage....Troy falls into our 71% main group from last season and a subset group that hit 54% last season but is 0-2 thus far this season. Hopefully this is where the subset group starts to get on track. Troy does not qualify as a BIG PLAY.
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I'll have to go back and look at my numbers on Troy. But I'm pretty sure mine are pretty close to yours. At any rate, anything over 1 is a big gap. I wouldn't hold too much weight with the running dogs today. If you remember, I said the running dogs don't do nearly as well when they have to go up in conference class and are getting less than a TD. As in Navy today. They might have had a big rushing gap. But they were also taking a big class jump. Plus Navy is always going to be the running dogs because they are an exclusinve running team. But Navy actually got outrushed by Wake today 239-221. Goes to show you what a class jump can sometimes do to a team. As for Fresno, your numbers were different than mine. I had CSU as the running dogs. And even if CSU hadn't been the running dogs in that game, you had to consider that Johnson had been running very well for CSU this year, and Fresno's main RB was out. Along with some key players on their defense. This all lead to Johnson rushing for almost 300 yards against Fresno. I haven't seen the box results of Zona/BYU. But Zona did a very good job of stopping the run. Something I thought they would have trouble doing against the mismatch in size of their lines. But that's the way it goes. Zona was very motivated tonight. And this is the key to winning these bowl games.
