I tend to see the same things when I look for strength of schedule. I wish I could give you a good answer to this. I guess every site has different ways to figure SOS. When it comes to SOS, before I read what everybody else has to say, I tend to look at the schedule myself, to just get a general idea. Like for instance FAU vs CMU. I see CMU has played 3 BCS teams on the road. But only one had a winning record. And they've played 7 games on the road and 5 at home. With FAU I see where they've played 3 BCS teams on the road. All bowl teams. So this alone will probably give FAU a tougher overall schedule. Plus the fact that out of the 12 games they've played, 8 have been on the road. Something that SOS doesn't take into account is how well a team has played on the road. Playing good teams and playing well are two different things. You can have the hardest SOS in the country, but if your getting beat by 5 TD's in every game, your SOS really doesn't mean anything. Something else that's kind of off subject: If a team has had a great first half of the season, but is playing terrible in their last 4 or 5 games of the year, I've learned that in MOST cases they are going to continue to play bad in their bowl games. I've learned the hard way not to expect miracles, and for a team to revert back to the way they played at the beginning of the year. Many times at the beginning of the season a team has it's easiest part of their schedule. But in the second half of the year when they start losing, it's because they've gone into the meat of their schedule, and either haven't had the talent to compete, or they break down some on defense, or they just lost their confidence. Or all of the above. A good example of this is LSU this year. They won 5 out of their first 6 games. But when they got into the meat of the schedule they went 2-4 in their last 6 games. And those 2 wins came against non-BCS competetion. This is the stuff I would rather look for when I think of SOS, than anything the internet sites tell me. Face it, there just isn't that much difference between a team who has a #50 schedule and one that has a #70 schedule. The main thing is how they performed against that competetion.
I was very surprised to see how small Navy's defense is. They use a 3 man defensive front and average just 256 pounds a player across the line. And their linebackers barely average over 200 pounds each. Very small. I'm surprised they've held up this long. If they played in a BCS conference they would have broken down by now. Pitt and Notre Dame were able to impose their will on this team because of their size. Wake isn't quite as physical on offense as Notre Dame. Which along with their inexperience on the OL are probably reasons why WF has struggled so bad on offense in ACC play. But against Navy I expect a little more success. As for Hawaii's defense, they are not as big as most BCS conference defenses, but they are definitely bigger than Navy's. This is the strength of their team. But I still think that ND can have some success running on Hawaii. Cincinati only averaged 109 ypg rushing, but ran for 140 on Hawaii. Notre Dame only averages 113 ypg rushing. But that's still more than Cincy averaged. So I expect about a 150 yard rushing game out of ND if they play like their supposed to play.
Bellyputter, in case you've been living under a rock, Sooners and Longhorns HATE one another, thus the jabbing. I enjoy reading GS's capping and have nothing personal against anyone. Obviously I've gotten under your skin. Take a step back and breathe, maybe clean up your trailer for some therapy. Also, I've had a very lucky and privileged life, with no shit getting beat out of me. However I do hate the Oklahoma football program and everything associated with it, so no tears will be shed for Demarco. BOL this bowl season all!
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
The more I look for a side on this game the more complicated it gets for me. Right now I have a slight lean to Clemson. And when we get close to the game I may play a side. But right now there are some things that are telling me that the ACC teams when they go out of conference are going to score over their conference averages in these bowl games. Let's just call it a hunch based on what I've already seen this season. Let's take a few of these games for example:
Virginia Tech..They went out of conference and played Nebraska in Lincoln earlier in the season and scored 35. They haven't score more than 23 points in any conference game the rest of the season.
Georgia Tech..Went out of conference and scored 37 on Miss St. and 45 on Georgia. But only averaged 22 ppg in conference.
North Carolina..Played Notre Dame, Rutgers and UCONN in OOC games and averaged 37 ppg in those 3 games. But only averaged 23 ppg in league play.
Clemson...Went out of league play to play South Carolina in their last game. And scored 31. And their only averaging 20 ppg in league play.
Maryland..Scored 35 on Cal earlier in the year. Haven't scored more than 27 in any ACC game the rest of the year. And in fact has only averaged 16 ppg in league play.
I know these are only a few examples. But I see a little bit of a pattern here. I think the ACC defenses may be a bit underrated this bowl season. And the offenses a little better than they appear. And I think the better teams from this conference are going to score more points when they get out of conference and into these bowls. So until I can get a better feel for the overall strength of this conference and the Big 12, I'm going with the over. I do know one thing, Nebraska is a much different team on offense since they changed some of their schemes around after the Missouri game. And have averaged 38 ppg in their last 7 games.. Probably the best offense that Clemson has seen this year. If the Huskers can even can get within 10 points of this average I think this game will fly over the total.
The more I look for a side on this game the more complicated it gets for me. Right now I have a slight lean to Clemson. And when we get close to the game I may play a side. But right now there are some things that are telling me that the ACC teams when they go out of conference are going to score over their conference averages in these bowl games. Let's just call it a hunch based on what I've already seen this season. Let's take a few of these games for example:
Virginia Tech..They went out of conference and played Nebraska in Lincoln earlier in the season and scored 35. They haven't score more than 23 points in any conference game the rest of the season.
Georgia Tech..Went out of conference and scored 37 on Miss St. and 45 on Georgia. But only averaged 22 ppg in conference.
North Carolina..Played Notre Dame, Rutgers and UCONN in OOC games and averaged 37 ppg in those 3 games. But only averaged 23 ppg in league play.
Clemson...Went out of league play to play South Carolina in their last game. And scored 31. And their only averaging 20 ppg in league play.
Maryland..Scored 35 on Cal earlier in the year. Haven't scored more than 27 in any ACC game the rest of the year. And in fact has only averaged 16 ppg in league play.
I know these are only a few examples. But I see a little bit of a pattern here. I think the ACC defenses may be a bit underrated this bowl season. And the offenses a little better than they appear. And I think the better teams from this conference are going to score more points when they get out of conference and into these bowls. So until I can get a better feel for the overall strength of this conference and the Big 12, I'm going with the over. I do know one thing, Nebraska is a much different team on offense since they changed some of their schemes around after the Missouri game. And have averaged 38 ppg in their last 7 games.. Probably the best offense that Clemson has seen this year. If the Huskers can even can get within 10 points of this average I think this game will fly over the total.
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North Carolina State-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
Unless I really see something that stands out, this will probably be the only other total I play. I'm very tempted to take NCST. But I hate to go against Rutgers. Even at this -8.5 line. Teel and this offense is so hot that they've looked just about unstoppable in the Big East. Even against quality opponents. It's been a tale of two seasons for Rutgers. They started the season out going 1-5. But have won their last 6 games in a row. And have averaged over 500 yards on offense in those games. So I look for them to have some success against a NCST defense who is giving up about 400 ypg. NCST has also gotten on a hot streak in the last month of the season. And have averaged about 450 yards of offense in their last two games. So I expect the offenses to stay hot, and for this to be a game that if you go by the recent form these two teams, will more than likely be played in the high 50's or 60's. At least.
Unless I really see something that stands out, this will probably be the only other total I play. I'm very tempted to take NCST. But I hate to go against Rutgers. Even at this -8.5 line. Teel and this offense is so hot that they've looked just about unstoppable in the Big East. Even against quality opponents. It's been a tale of two seasons for Rutgers. They started the season out going 1-5. But have won their last 6 games in a row. And have averaged over 500 yards on offense in those games. So I look for them to have some success against a NCST defense who is giving up about 400 ypg. NCST has also gotten on a hot streak in the last month of the season. And have averaged about 450 yards of offense in their last two games. So I expect the offenses to stay hot, and for this to be a game that if you go by the recent form these two teams, will more than likely be played in the high 50's or 60's. At least.
arty::wink:
Its practically racist how much TV game announcers always talk about FSU 'speed'. But if there ever was a time to mention it....vs Wisconsin?
Wisconsin fans seem to be willing to stay home this year. Maybe its the lousy economy, bing it probably is. Usually they flock to their games, not this time, they are not coming.
Congrats to them on their 7-5 season in the slow10 and their 2-0 MAC nonconference games record and their 36-35 win over Cal Poly Tech at home in overtime and Cal Poly Tech kicker missed two extra points in regulation and the tying one in overtime.
The little bit of trickeration from FSU running game should drive them absolutely nuts, FSU does not run straight ahead, well OK they do, but also the QB likes to scramble and they like to flip the ball left and right to freshman speedy receivers on reverses.
Phil Steele is a sharp guy and he has a 4 star on them and says FSU by 12.
I do not think Wisconsin is a rushing dog when they average 4.8 yards per rush and FSU averages 4.9 yards per rush and on defense Wisconsin gives up 3.9 per rush and FSU gives up 3.7.
FSU -4.5 for a bet for me. %^_
Wisconsin fans seem to be willing to stay home this year. Maybe its the lousy economy, bing it probably is. Usually they flock to their games, not this time, they are not coming.
Congrats to them on their 7-5 season in the slow10 and their 2-0 MAC nonconference games record and their 36-35 win over Cal Poly Tech at home in overtime and Cal Poly Tech kicker missed two extra points in regulation and the tying one in overtime.
The little bit of trickeration from FSU running game should drive them absolutely nuts, FSU does not run straight ahead, well OK they do, but also the QB likes to scramble and they like to flip the ball left and right to freshman speedy receivers on reverses.
Phil Steele is a sharp guy and he has a 4 star on them and says FSU by 12.
I do not think Wisconsin is a rushing dog when they average 4.8 yards per rush and FSU averages 4.9 yards per rush and on defense Wisconsin gives up 3.9 per rush and FSU gives up 3.7.
FSU -4.5 for a bet for me. %^_
Mr.Smith...Right now I'm undecided on this game. But Wisky is the running dog. And it's by a pretty significant number. Remember, I am an outsider here looking in, with no agenda for either team. I've seen both teams play quite a bit this season. The thing that bothers me with FSU is they are a young inexperienced team with inconsistent QB play laying almost a TD to an experienced team in a bowl game. Wisconsin's weakness this season has been their scoring defense. But statistically they have a better defense than Florida State. And statistically Wisky is also better on offense. So I'm really going to have to see a large motivation factor, or the line going down, or some other angle here before I can play Florida State in this game.
