GoSooners Bowl Season Thread With "Running Dogs"!

[GoSooners]

Guys....I'm putting in three more games and then this is it for me for the bowl season. I'm going to give this remaining game a shot tonight, and then the two remaining Big 12 teams in the bowls. Those are the only other games I care about. This bowl season has been very tough to get a handle on. 4 out of the 5 games played were decided by a TD or less within the final line. These kinds of games are very hard to win. And then you add to that the bad beats that have happened on a regular basis, and the game today between PSU/USC that doesn't go anything like their form, and I think it's better to call it a day. Luckily I play the same amount every game during bowl season. And they are all small plays, so I haven't lost my ass. But this has still been a frustrating bowl season.


Cincinnati (-2) over Va Tech **
I've been all over this Cincy team from about midseason on. When this team started beating my running dogs on a regular basis, I knew that they were on a mission this season. After OU beat them in the second game of the season, I remember the interviews from the players and coach Kelly after the game. And all they said was the only thing that meant anything to them this year is the Big East title and BCS bowl bid that they thought they should have won last year. And although they only had 6 players returning from each side of the ball, this is still a very experienced senior oriented team on defense. And with all of the QB troubles they had this season, it was their defense that was the biggest help in getting them the BE title. Their strong point on defense is being able to stop the run. They allow only 109 yards rushing a game. And they held West Virginia to just 98 yards rushing. Running the ball is Va Tech's strength since they only throw for 133 ypg. And when Cincy takes their run away, I don't see any way in hell that Tyrod Taylor can beat them with his arm. And this is the biggest problem for VT. They won't be facing a youthful Boston College team with QB problems. Their young offense will be facing a veteran defense. And a Cincy team with a good QB in Pike who is completing over 60% of his passes. And the most important thing is he doesn't make mistakes. Something VT has lived off of this season. But I don't feel that VT has enough offense to get it done against this team. I can see them having trouble moving the ball and having to resort to the pass. And this is where they'll get in trouble. If it goes like the rest of the bowl season has gone, I can see this being a tight game. But I feel like we're still getting a good line here with Cincy. Possibly because everybody still remembers the lackluster performance they put in against Hawaii in a meaningless last game of the season, in what was basically a vacation for them... But in what should be a low scoring game, I'll give the two points and take the Bearcats and their outstanding coach Kelly.

 

[krh7]

3 more big 12 teams in bowls.

 

[GoSooners]

3 more big 12 teams in bowls.

As I stated on the first page of my thread I won't be betting the OU-Florida game.

 

[GoSooners]

The Keepers Power Ratings Stystem has done pretty well so far in picking the straight up winners of these bowl games. If you had taken all of it's picks SU you would have been 20-7. I've always liked this ratings sytem better than Sagarin. I may follow it a little more closely next bowl season.


KCFR Bowl Predictions are from latest team Power Ratings
adjusted with season prediction differential results.

* indicates 3 point home proximity advantage included

DATE FAVORITE ----------- UNDERDOG ----------- LINE
Dec20 Arizona ------------ Brigham Young ------ 12.02 (win)
Dec20 Colorado State ----- Fresno State ------- 5.91 (win)
Dec20 South Florida *----- Memphis ------------ 9.04 (win)
Dec20 Navy --------------- Wake Forest -------- 7.61 (loss)
Dec21 Troy --------------- Southern Mississippi 2.87 (loss)
Dec23 Texas Christian ---- Boise State -------- 1.86 (win)
Dec24 Notre Dame --------- @ Hawaii ----------- 15.42 (win)
Dec26 Central Michigan --- Florida Atlantic --- 8.78 (loss)
Dec27 California *-------- Miami-Florida ------ 15.27 (win)
Dec27 West Virginia ------ North Carolina ----- 0.20 (win)
Dec27 Florida State ------ Wisconsin ---------- 3.78 (win)
Dec28 Northern Illinois -- Louisiana Tech ----- 4.28 (loss)
Dec29 Missouri ----------- Northwestern ------- 6.06 (win)
Dec29 Rutgers ------------ North Carolina State 8.68 (win)
Dec30 Nevada ------------- Maryland ----------- 5.04 (loss)
Dec30 Oregon ------------- Oklahoma State ----- 1.04 (win)
Dec30 Rice *-------------- Western Michigan --- 9.67 (win)
Dec31 Vanderbilt *-------- Boston College ----- 2.34 (win)
Dec31 Georgia Tech *------ L S U -------------- 9.26 (loss)
Dec31 Houston ------------ Air Force ---------- 6.66 (win)
Dec31 Kansas ------------- Minnesota ---------- 2.64 (win)
Dec31 Oregon State ------- Pittsburgh --------- 5.27 (win)
Jan01 Cincinnati --------- Virginia Tech ------ 1.68 (loss)
Jan01 Georgia ------------ Michigan State ----- 3.93 (win)
Jan01 Iowa --------------- South Carolina ----- 23.32 (win)
Jan01 Nebraska ----------- Clemson ------------ 1.79 (win)
Jan01 U S C *------------- Penn State --------- 10.41 (win)
Jan02 Alabama ------------ Utah --------------- 8.09
Jan02 East Carolina ------ Kentucky ----------- 7.93
Jan02 Texas Tech --------- Mississippi -------- 0.31
Jan03 Connecticut -------- Buffalo ------------ 1.21
Jan05 Texas -------------- Ohio State --------- 16.56
Jan06 Ball State --------- Tulsa -------------- 1.02
Jan08 Oklahoma ----------- Florida ------------ 2.82

 

[GoSooners]

Ole Miss (+5.5) over Texas Tech ** (Bodog)
This looks like it could be one of the better matchups for the bowl season. It's just a matter if Tech comes to play after finishing up the season on a rather lackluster note against Baylor after getting blown out by OU. I don't know if the Raiders can recover or not. But I know Ole Miss will be ready for their first bowl game in five years. I look at the game this way. I feel like we're getting good line value here because in my opinion, the way Ole Miss was playing in the second half of the season and especially down the final 4 game stretch, they were probably the second best team in the SEC. And Texas Tech is no better than the third best team in the Big 12 South. Ole Miss played Florida, Bama and LSU all on the road and won 2 out of 3. With their only loss coming against Bama, who they outyardaged that day and beat them everywhere but the scoreboard. That was a couple weeks after the Rebs knocked off Florida on their home field. Texas Tech has proved very little outside of Lubbock this season. Their best win came against Kansas on the road. But Kansas wasn't competetive against any team from the Big 12 South this year. That leaves Tech's only really significant win being over Texas. A team who was on the last leg of playing top 4 top 10 teams in a row. So in retrospect, that may not have been as good a victory as it seemed. The problem with Tech is they can't get the blue chip defensive players like Texas and OU can. And when they go up against good teams with big physical lines like OU they cave in to the run. And Ole Miss has two of the best lines in the SEC. This is where Tech is probably going to run into trouble. Especially on defense where they are giving up about 150 yards rushing per game. This is a strong part of the Ole Miss offense, who is averaging over 180 yards rushing per game in a good defenesive conference. And I think your going to see Ole Miss do what OU did to them. Run all day and control the time of possession. The key for Ole Miss is stopping the Texas Tech passing game. Or slowing it down. Nobody stops it. OU knew how to play Tech on defense because Stoops is well aware of how their schemes work. Ole Miss I don't know. This is the most difficult part of capping this game. If there is a weakness on this Ole Miss team, it is their pass defense. So how successful they will be will depend on how well they pressure Harrell. I'm not sure what is going to happen there. But I am pretty sure that Ole Miss will be able to move the ball well enough to stay up or stay close to Tech. So I'll take any points I can get here in what could be a high scoring game.

 

[cashflow50]

The Keepers Power Ratings Stystem has done pretty well so far in picking the straight up winners of these bowl games. If you had taken all of it's picks SU you would have been 20-7. I've always liked this ratings sytem better than Sagarin. I may follow it a little more closely next bowl season.


KCFR Bowl Predictions are from latest team Power Ratings
adjusted with season prediction differential results.

* indicates 3 point home proximity advantage included

DATE FAVORITE ----------- UNDERDOG ----------- LINE
Dec20 Arizona ------------ Brigham Young ------ 12.02 (win)
Dec20 Colorado State ----- Fresno State ------- 5.91 (win)
Dec20 South Florida *----- Memphis ------------ 9.04 (win)
Dec20 Navy --------------- Wake Forest -------- 7.61 (loss)
Dec21 Troy --------------- Southern Mississippi 2.87 (loss)
Dec23 Texas Christian ---- Boise State -------- 1.86 (win)
Dec24 Notre Dame --------- @ Hawaii ----------- 15.42 (win)
Dec26 Central Michigan --- Florida Atlantic --- 8.78 (loss)
Dec27 California *-------- Miami-Florida ------ 15.27 (win)
Dec27 West Virginia ------ North Carolina ----- 0.20 (win)
Dec27 Florida State ------ Wisconsin ---------- 3.78 (win)
Dec28 Northern Illinois -- Louisiana Tech ----- 4.28 (loss)
Dec29 Missouri ----------- Northwestern ------- 6.06 (win)
Dec29 Rutgers ------------ North Carolina State 8.68 (win)
Dec30 Nevada ------------- Maryland ----------- 5.04 (loss)
Dec30 Oregon ------------- Oklahoma State ----- 1.04 (win)
Dec30 Rice *-------------- Western Michigan --- 9.67 (win)
Dec31 Vanderbilt *-------- Boston College ----- 2.34 (win)
Dec31 Georgia Tech *------ L S U -------------- 9.26 (loss)
Dec31 Houston ------------ Air Force ---------- 6.66 (win)
Dec31 Kansas ------------- Minnesota ---------- 2.64 (win)
Dec31 Oregon State ------- Pittsburgh --------- 5.27 (win)
Jan01 Cincinnati --------- Virginia Tech ------ 1.68 (loss)
Jan01 Georgia ------------ Michigan State ----- 3.93 (win)
Jan01 Iowa --------------- South Carolina ----- 23.32 (win)
Jan01 Nebraska ----------- Clemson ------------ 1.79 (win)
Jan01 U S C *------------- Penn State --------- 10.41 (win)
Jan02 Alabama ------------ Utah --------------- 8.09
Jan02 East Carolina ------ Kentucky ----------- 7.93
Jan02 Texas Tech --------- Mississippi -------- 0.31
Jan03 Connecticut -------- Buffalo ------------ 1.21
Jan05 Texas -------------- Ohio State --------- 16.56
Jan06 Ball State --------- Tulsa -------------- 1.02
Jan08 Oklahoma ----------- Florida ------------ 2.82

GS..I got a dumb question for you. How does these ratings determine the winner? looks like all teams that are on the favs column?

 

[AlwaysKeen]

I can't by a break the last two days...four, five bad beats...just tryint to keep truckin' though...with you Ole Miss...GL gosooners...

 

[GoSooners]

GS..I got a dumb question for you. How does these ratings determine the winner? looks like all teams that are on the favs column?

It doesn't pick the winner. It was 20-7 SU but only 16-11 ATS. So other things have to go into your capping besides the just having the winner. But I think this Keepers Rating System works pretty well in certain circumstances like picking teams who were dogs or pickems in their games like Nebraska, Oregon or Vandy. If you look at some of his lines, the games where he predicted double digit wins have done well like Notre Dame, Arizona, Iowa and USC. The only one that he's missed so far is Cal. The only double digit winner he has left on the card is Texas....Hmmm

 

[cashflow50]

thanks for the explanation. hmmm interesting. I will try to incorporate it in my system. much appreciated gs. gl to us today as well as the rest of the way, I surely need it.

 

[GoSooners]

thanks for the explanation. hmmm interesting. I will try to incorporate it in my system. much appreciated gs. gl to us today as well as the rest of the way, I surely need it.

Good luck cashflow.:toast:

 

[GoSooners]

I can't by a break the last two days...four, five bad beats...just tryint to keep truckin' though...with you Ole Miss...GL gosooners...

I hear ya brother Pags. There were a couple teams yesterday that simply didn't look the same to me as they did during the season. My ass still hurts from the reaming I got from Penn State and Cincy..Very tough bowl season. hno:

 

[GoSooners]

I'm going to throw in a 2 team teaser on the late games today.

Teaser: *** (Bookmaker)

Kentucky/East Carolina (Game Total OVER 36)
Alabama/Utah (Game Total Over 31)

 

[GoSooners]

2-0 today...I might throw in a another two leg teaser for the game tomorrow if I can come up with something good..BOL

 

[AlwaysKeen]

great work today gosooners...

 

[GoSooners]

Teaser: **


Buffalo (+12.5)
Game Total (UNDER 57)

 

[GoSooners]

Second Half Play:

Buffalo +9.5 *

 

[GoSooners]

Fiesta Bowl:


Texas (-8) over Ohio State ***
Ohio State comes into this game on a 3 game win streak after losing to Penn State. But OSU's wins haven't been quite as impressive as their scores would indicate. OSU struggled on offense through their first 7 games while breaking in Pryor. Then came their 45-7 win over Michigan State. A game in which the Spartans turned the ball over 5 times. Even at that, this was probably OSU's best overall game of the season. But keep in mind that MSU was pretty much a one dimensional team slanted to the run. So OSU pretty much beat them at their own game. Their other big win came against another below average Northwestern offense that had a ton of injuries that day. OSU then went to Illinois, a team with a mobile quarterback and a team who can play some good offense on occasion. And that day Juice Williams and the Illinois offense lit OSU up for 455 yards in a 30-20 loss. And then OSU ended thr year against another poor offensive team Michigan. The problem I have with OSU is not with how they've performed coming down the stretch. But their competition. And it's been pretty obvious by their performance in these bowls and out of conference games this season, that the Big 10 is still down this year.

Texas on the other hand has played the toughest schedule in college football this year. Very few teams have ever had to face 4 top 10 teams in a row in one season. And even fewer have come out undefeated. But the reality is the Horns were just one pass reception and one dropped interception away from playing in the BCS title game. Despite the misleading scores that the best offenses in the Big 12 have put up against them, this defense has been a tough nut to crack. Take a look at Texas first five opponents and you'll see what I mean. They gave up just 11 ppg during that span.. They are just about impossible to run on with any consistency, and they give up just 74 ypg rushing.. The only yards allowed have mainly been from selling out on defense some against the passing game. But keep in mind that they've faced the best passing teams in the nation this season. If OSU had the same schedule they would be allowing the same amount or more yards against these high octane offenses.

Normally I really like teams like Ohio State who are the dogs with good running games and can play defense. But statistically Texas is the better running team in this spot... And in my opinion they are also a bit better on defense. The Horns wildcard is Colt McCoy, who gets the nod over Pryor. McCoy can do it all. And I don't think OSU has seen anybody quite like him this season. He'll make things happen where OSU's other strong opponent this season, Penn State couldn't. In my opinion Texas has a better O-Line and D-Line than Penn State. And this is where the game will be won. I expect Texas outstanding defensive front led by Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller to put pressure on a young Pryor all day like he hasn't felt since they faced USC. And although Ohio State has the motivation of getting their last two BCS title games performances monkey off their backs, I believe Texas has even more motivation here with getting snubbed by the BCS title game, and McCoy getting snubbed for the Heisman. I think the Horns will be playing with a lot of purpose here. They are one of just a 4 football programs who are undefeated in BCS bowl games. And I think they keep the string going here. My numbers have Texas winning this game by 16 points. And this is without the motivation factor and other intangibles added in.

I look for Texas to get a good dose of Beanie Wells in this game. But I believe the Horns can stop or slow him down like Penn State did. They did it with their defensive speed. And speed is what Texas has plenty of on defense. I guarantee you OSU is going to have a rough time on offense given the Horns outstanding defensive coordinator Muschamp's month to prepare for them. And on the other side of the ball, the only opponent that OSU faced this year that averages as many yards on offense as Texas was USC. And we saw what they did to them. Plus the Buckeyes are facing the best QB that they've faced all season. And McCoy is almost sure to have a chip on his shoulder coming into this game. We're talking about two defenses that are fairly even, with possibly a small nod to Texas and the better defensive coordinator. But we're talking about an OSU offense that is averaging only 325 total ypg against Texas 477. This will be the difference in the game. I believe Texas eventually wears this defense down or forces them into mistakes and Texas comes out with a win.

Texas 35
Ohio State 20

 

[born2gamble]

Fiesta Bowl:


Texas (-8) over Ohio State ***

Take a look at Texas first five opponents and you'll see what I mean. They gave up just 11 ppg during that span..

I don't disagree with the play, but this comment is misleading. Texas faced Utep, Rice, Arkansas, Colorado and Florida Atlantic their first 5 games. Those teams skew stats.

 

[GoSooners]

I don't disagree with the play, but this comment is misleading. Texas faced Utep, Rice, Arkansas, Colorado and Florida Atlantic their first 5 games. Those teams skew stats.

Yes, but look at what most of these teams did on offense this year against their other opponents. And then look what they did against Texas.

 

[MightyGinseng]

Very glad to see you on this play GS. All that write up, and no mention about how the Buckeyes fold in bowl games vs real opponents?

My first instinct was a trap on this game, and was a bit surprised to see the line drop from 10 to 8. Maybe there are more Big Ten homers out there than I thought.