That's probably a good play. I've had terrible luck with the overs this season though. So I'm pretty much leaving the totals alone. The only totals that look halfway decent to me the rest of the way is the South Carolina/Iowa Over and the Nebreaska/Clemson over..But like I said the overs have been hard on everybody's wallets so far this bowl season....Man, these first two games with Pitt and AF have been tough. I lost both games by a total of 3.5 points on the spread..These lines are set as tight as a knats ass. Vandy is looking good if they don't screw the pooch in the 4th quarter.
Bowl plays:
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona ** (Loss)
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) ** (Loss)
NCST (+9) over Rutgers ** (Win)
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice ** (Loss)
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) ** (Win)
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno ** (Win)
Troy (-4) over Southern Miss ** (Loss)
TCU (-3) over Boise State ** (Loss)
Notre Dame (ML) over Hawaii ** (Win)
CMU (-7) over Florida Atlantic ** (Loss)
Wisconsin (+6) over Florida St. ** (Loss)
West Virginia (ML) over North Carolina ** (Win)
Miami (+10) over California ** (Win)
Miami/Cal (UNDER 25) First Half Play ** (Win)
La Tech (ML) over Northern Illinois ** (Win)
Missouri (-12) over Northwestern ** (Loss)
Oregon (+1) over OSU ** (Win)
Pitt (+1.5) over Oregon State ** (Loss)
Air Force (-4) over Houston (Loss)
Minnesota (+9) over Kansas ** (Loss)
Ga Tech (-3) over LSU ** (Loss)
Vanderbilt (+6) over Boston College (Win)
Tough day today with two close losses. Hopefully I'll get a little of it back tomorrow.
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona ** (Loss)
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) ** (Loss)
NCST (+9) over Rutgers ** (Win)
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice ** (Loss)
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) ** (Win)
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno ** (Win)
Troy (-4) over Southern Miss ** (Loss)
TCU (-3) over Boise State ** (Loss)
Notre Dame (ML) over Hawaii ** (Win)
CMU (-7) over Florida Atlantic ** (Loss)
Wisconsin (+6) over Florida St. ** (Loss)
West Virginia (ML) over North Carolina ** (Win)
Miami (+10) over California ** (Win)
Miami/Cal (UNDER 25) First Half Play ** (Win)
La Tech (ML) over Northern Illinois ** (Win)
Missouri (-12) over Northwestern ** (Loss)
Oregon (+1) over OSU ** (Win)
Pitt (+1.5) over Oregon State ** (Loss)
Air Force (-4) over Houston (Loss)
Minnesota (+9) over Kansas ** (Loss)
Ga Tech (-3) over LSU ** (Loss)
Vanderbilt (+6) over Boston College (Win)
Tough day today with two close losses. Hopefully I'll get a little of it back tomorrow.
Iowa-South Carolina (OVER 42.5) **
This is the last and best totals play opportunity that I've seen so far this bowl season. This isn't a game you would expect to see a lot of points scored. But when given time between the end of the season and the bowls, the old ball coach has a way bringing in some new schemes to his offenses. In his last two bowls his South Carolina teams have scored 44 and 31 points. And neither of those teams would be what I would call prolific offenses. Also when you look back, more times than not SEC teams tend to score more points when they go out of their defensively top heavy conference. On the other side of the ball, Iowa has a much more balanced offense this season. And they are playing well down the stretch averaging almost 35 ppg on offense in their last 6 games. South Carolina on the other hand has pretty close to a top 10 defense. But much of their stats have been accumulated from facing less than impressive offensive teams. When they've played teams who are statistically in the category of Iowa they are giving up an average of about 26 ppg. And I'm not counting the 56 point game that Florida put up on them. Even against below average teams they've given up a fair amount of points. Kentucky scored 17. Arkansas scored 21, and Vandy scored 24... Much of SC's numbers were padded by teams like Wofford, Tennessee, UAB and NCST, who in the first game of the year hadn't yet caught fire. So with the way Iowa is playing right now, I feel like if they can score 24 on Penn State, they can score this much or more in a bowl against South Carolina. And I believe this is all we may need in what I anticipate to be a close game of a TD or less.
This is the last and best totals play opportunity that I've seen so far this bowl season. This isn't a game you would expect to see a lot of points scored. But when given time between the end of the season and the bowls, the old ball coach has a way bringing in some new schemes to his offenses. In his last two bowls his South Carolina teams have scored 44 and 31 points. And neither of those teams would be what I would call prolific offenses. Also when you look back, more times than not SEC teams tend to score more points when they go out of their defensively top heavy conference. On the other side of the ball, Iowa has a much more balanced offense this season. And they are playing well down the stretch averaging almost 35 ppg on offense in their last 6 games. South Carolina on the other hand has pretty close to a top 10 defense. But much of their stats have been accumulated from facing less than impressive offensive teams. When they've played teams who are statistically in the category of Iowa they are giving up an average of about 26 ppg. And I'm not counting the 56 point game that Florida put up on them. Even against below average teams they've given up a fair amount of points. Kentucky scored 17. Arkansas scored 21, and Vandy scored 24... Much of SC's numbers were padded by teams like Wofford, Tennessee, UAB and NCST, who in the first game of the year hadn't yet caught fire. So with the way Iowa is playing right now, I feel like if they can score 24 on Penn State, they can score this much or more in a bowl against South Carolina. And I believe this is all we may need in what I anticipate to be a close game of a TD or less.
I like that Clemson pick. It's a really tough game to cap. On one hand, Nebraska has put up stronger numbers in a much better league, outgaining Big 12 foes 477-365 ypg. On the other hand, we have a very talented Clemson squad that underachieved this year, but has been elevating their power rating here down the stretch closer to where i would have expected it to be.
Bottom line is that you have picked up considerable line value on Clemson as the year has gone along. At the end of last season, i had Clemson rated 12 points higher than Nebraska on a neutral field. With so many returning starters for Clemson, it's just hard for me to believe that Nebraska is the better team now that CU is playing up to their potential. I am not going to play this game, but to me, it is one of the most fascinating games of the bowl season to see how it plays out.
I don't blame you for playing Penn State. It's a solid team getting a lot of points. I love the athleticism of USC and will be laying the wood here, but a Penn State cover would not shock me. Last year, I had my chalk play of the bowl season on SC in the Rose Bowl and I would have been stunned if Illinois would have covered. This year, the Big Ten is sending a much more competent representative, although Ohio State i think was probably the best team in the league at then end of the day, and they were no match at all for USC.
ND...The Clemson/Nebraska play was one of the hardest plays of the bowl season. And I've gone round and round with a couple cappers here who have different views of this game. My take on it is Nebraska probably doesn't have a good enough defense to win the game. They gave up an average of 35 ppg in their last 5 games. Including 31 to Colorado in their last game. And Colorado was a horrible offensive team. Not a great sign. And it took a 57 yard FG by Nebraksa to win that game. Also if you go back and look at their non conference games, Western Michigan scored 24 on their defense. And Virginia Tech scored their season high total 35 on the Huskers. In Lincoln! And now their playing a team who may not have the big offensive numbers. But it's obvious that they are on the uptick since changing coaches. It's still unclear exactly how strong the ACC is. Especially after their showing yesterday. But Clemson is the team in that conference who has the best athletes and were picked to win that conference. And they do still have some very good offensive weapons. I just prefer the team who comes from a conference who is more top heavy in defensive teams than the Big 12 North is. But this isn't an easy game. Clemson's offense will have to show up to win this game. I'm just playing it because I'm a Big 12 guy. And I want to have some action on all of the games involving the teams in my conference.
As for Penn State. I like them for several reasons. One is the coaching aspect of the game. USC has done very well in these Rose Bowls for the last 5 years or so. But the two Big 10 coaches that they've played in this period have been Ron Zook, and Lloyd Carr twice. Carr is no longer coaching for a reason. And Zook's team fell off the map this year. Paterno and his staff are miles better. And Paterno is pretty much a genius in getting his teams ready for bowl games. I read somewhere where he is 9-2 SU in his last 11 bowls. And out of the 34 bowls that his teams have played in, only 5 of those games were decided by more than a TD. And I would wager that those 5 teams weren't nearly as good as this one. The truth is, USC is playing a team that came just one point away from playing in the BCS title game. PSU is a damn good football team who is flying a little bit under the radar here and not getting the respect they deserve... I know USC has the great 5 star athelets on their team. But these teams aren't athletically as far apart as this forum would lead you to believe. Penn State has plenty of speed to go around. And they are by far the most blanced team that USC has faced this year. I also think that losing OC Sarkisian hurts the USC offense in preparation. Whenever you lose your OC, however bad or good you perceive him to be, it hurts the general chemstry of the offense and the in-game playcalling. I'm curious to see what happens if USC gets tested and should find themselves behind in this game. Penn State has been road tested at Iowa and Ohio State and will keep coming at you. USC didn't respond very well when they were tested at Oregon State. And I guarantee you PSU is a lot better than OSU. They already proved it earlier in the season. As far as the numbers go with these teams, USC does have the slightly better numbers. But the gap is very small in all aspects of the game. And I also think that USC's numbers have been somewhat padded because they've gotten to play teams like Washington and Wash. State on their schedule. If PSU had USC's schedule I would bet they would have the same numbers at the end of the season. Look, I know USC is tough at home in the Rose Bowl. But they are way overdue for somebody to come in there and give them a game. And PSU is the best Big 10 team that I've seen come in there in the last 20 years. USC could very well cover this if they bring their A+ game and everything bounces their way. But I'm just betting that we're going to see a great game today.
Don't be blinded by a couple of teams. The ACC is every bit as tough as the Big 12 and is certainly tougher than the Big 12 North. Just look at their ATS in bowl games. Until yesterday (Vandy) they were perfect.
Clemson played eight bowl teams this year, including Alabama, going 3-5 in those games. They haven't faced a passing offense like Nebraska's and despite their overall ranking, their pass defense is really fairly ordinary. I agree that this is a tough game to cap and I am going to stay clear, although I have been on the over for weeks.
BOL
