Air Force (+4) over Houston **
This looks like an obvious revenge game for Houston. But the Cougars lost to Air Force the first time around for a reason. AF was the better team. Air Force was up 31-7 in that game before letting off the gas and killing some time off the clock with their running game. Houston then went into desperation mode to get themselves back in the game. The bottom line here is Air Force has the better running game. But more importantly they have the better defense. Houston gave up nearly 38 ppg on defense this year. And these teams as a rule do not not do very well in these bowl games as favorites. Especially when facing better defensive teams. Air Force has allowed over 30 points just 4 times this season. And 3 of those games were against some very good offensive teams from a much better conference. Houston is one of those sexy high octane offensive teams that the public loves to bet. But they had 56 points scored on them by Rice in their last game for a reason. They stink on defense. And we all know that as a rule, defense wins or covers these kinds of games. Taking the running dogs with the better defense.
This looks like an obvious revenge game for Houston. But the Cougars lost to Air Force the first time around for a reason. AF was the better team. Air Force was up 31-7 in that game before letting off the gas and killing some time off the clock with their running game. Houston then went into desperation mode to get themselves back in the game. The bottom line here is Air Force has the better running game. But more importantly they have the better defense. Houston gave up nearly 38 ppg on defense this year. And these teams as a rule do not not do very well in these bowl games as favorites. Especially when facing better defensive teams. Air Force has allowed over 30 points just 4 times this season. And 3 of those games were against some very good offensive teams from a much better conference. Houston is one of those sexy high octane offensive teams that the public loves to bet. But they had 56 points scored on them by Rice in their last game for a reason. They stink on defense. And we all know that as a rule, defense wins or covers these kinds of games. Taking the running dogs with the better defense.
arty:Pittsburg (+1.5) over Oregon State **
Pitt has the better run numbers by a very small margin (+0.1). But I think with Quizz Rogers out of the game or not 100% for OSU that Pitt and LeShean McCoy will probably win the rushing battle today. I'm not crazy about the coaching mismatch. But Pitt has been playing their best ball at the end of the season despite Wannstadt. And it's come against some very physical Big East teams in conference. So I'm pretty confident that they match up well against OSU. Especially Pitt's defense vs OSU's banged up offense. Probably the biggest reason I have for playing Pitt is OSU's very disappointing loss at the end of the season that knocked them from a BCS Rose Bowl bid to the Sun Bowl in cold El Paso. I can't buy that this won't be a huge letdown for this team. Especially with how they lost their last game. Pitt on the other hand won 4 out of their last 5 games, and are very battle hardened. And they should be excited here since they haven't been to a bowl game in 4 years. This is also the first under Wannstadt. And with only 7 senior starters on this team, I look for them to make a good showing here to give them momentum going into next season.
Pitt has the better run numbers by a very small margin (+0.1). But I think with Quizz Rogers out of the game or not 100% for OSU that Pitt and LeShean McCoy will probably win the rushing battle today. I'm not crazy about the coaching mismatch. But Pitt has been playing their best ball at the end of the season despite Wannstadt. And it's come against some very physical Big East teams in conference. So I'm pretty confident that they match up well against OSU. Especially Pitt's defense vs OSU's banged up offense. Probably the biggest reason I have for playing Pitt is OSU's very disappointing loss at the end of the season that knocked them from a BCS Rose Bowl bid to the Sun Bowl in cold El Paso. I can't buy that this won't be a huge letdown for this team. Especially with how they lost their last game. Pitt on the other hand won 4 out of their last 5 games, and are very battle hardened. And they should be excited here since they haven't been to a bowl game in 4 years. This is also the first under Wannstadt. And with only 7 senior starters on this team, I look for them to make a good showing here to give them momentum going into next season.
Minnesota (+9) over Kansas **
Kansas is another team that is moving way down in bowl class from last seasons BCS Orange Bowl game. More often than not I've found this to be a huge disappointment for these kinds of teams. But the BIG reason I don't like Kansas in this spot is their defense. They have given up a ton of points in the second half of the year. And this is never good. Especially when giving almost double digits in a bowl game. I don't care who their competetion is. Or how good their offense is perceived to be. Northwestern/Missouri was a good example of this the other night. I actually thought Missouri's defense was a little stronger than Kansas. They cartainly had given up less points over the season as the Jayhawks. But the bottom line there was what had Missouri done lately on defense? And they had given up 62 and 40 in their last 2 games. So despite Northwesterns mediocre offense, they were able to have success moving the ball against Missouri. Kansas is in much the same boat. They have given up 45, 35 & 37 points in ther last 3 games. And are now installed as big favorites in a game they couldn't be THAT excited about. Minnesota on the other hand is getting killed by the media and the line here because of one bad game they played at the end of the season against Iowa. But this was a team that started out 7-1, and was very competetive in almost every single game this season, including that same NW team that gave Missouri a hard time. And they also played Ohio State tough. They also fired their offensive coordinator at the end of the season. And my bet is they will be doing some things on offense that Kansas hasn't seen in game film. I guarantee you these Big 12 North teams aren't all that their cut out to be. And it's because they don't play defense. Just keep in mind that Kansas has given up over 40 ppg in their last 6 games, and lay the money on the Gophers, who I guarantee you are happy to be here.
Kansas is another team that is moving way down in bowl class from last seasons BCS Orange Bowl game. More often than not I've found this to be a huge disappointment for these kinds of teams. But the BIG reason I don't like Kansas in this spot is their defense. They have given up a ton of points in the second half of the year. And this is never good. Especially when giving almost double digits in a bowl game. I don't care who their competetion is. Or how good their offense is perceived to be. Northwestern/Missouri was a good example of this the other night. I actually thought Missouri's defense was a little stronger than Kansas. They cartainly had given up less points over the season as the Jayhawks. But the bottom line there was what had Missouri done lately on defense? And they had given up 62 and 40 in their last 2 games. So despite Northwesterns mediocre offense, they were able to have success moving the ball against Missouri. Kansas is in much the same boat. They have given up 45, 35 & 37 points in ther last 3 games. And are now installed as big favorites in a game they couldn't be THAT excited about. Minnesota on the other hand is getting killed by the media and the line here because of one bad game they played at the end of the season against Iowa. But this was a team that started out 7-1, and was very competetive in almost every single game this season, including that same NW team that gave Missouri a hard time. And they also played Ohio State tough. They also fired their offensive coordinator at the end of the season. And my bet is they will be doing some things on offense that Kansas hasn't seen in game film. I guarantee you these Big 12 North teams aren't all that their cut out to be. And it's because they don't play defense. Just keep in mind that Kansas has given up over 40 ppg in their last 6 games, and lay the money on the Gophers, who I guarantee you are happy to be here.
Ga Tech (-3) over LSU **
I bought a full point here because I just don't feel that comfortable with the 4 point line. I like everything else about this game and Ga Tech. They have the much better run numbers (+0.9). And the better defense. Along with the better coach. And the better turnover margin (+5) to LSU's (-3). So if there is going to be a team to kill themselves with mistakes tonight, it's probably going to be the much more unstable offense of the Tigers. This is another game where a team like LSU is taking a big bowl drop in class from last year's BCS title game. Which I've always considered a negative. Especially if the team is having a very subpar season like the Tigers. Ga Tech and Johnson are very happy to be here in his first year at GT. Miles is going to have a hell of a time motivating this team after losing 3 out of 4 of their last games, and barely getting by Troy in that span. These SEC teams don't bother Ga Tech. They've already knocked off Georgia between the hedges. I think they'll do it again here in the Georgia Dome.
I bought a full point here because I just don't feel that comfortable with the 4 point line. I like everything else about this game and Ga Tech. They have the much better run numbers (+0.9). And the better defense. Along with the better coach. And the better turnover margin (+5) to LSU's (-3). So if there is going to be a team to kill themselves with mistakes tonight, it's probably going to be the much more unstable offense of the Tigers. This is another game where a team like LSU is taking a big bowl drop in class from last year's BCS title game. Which I've always considered a negative. Especially if the team is having a very subpar season like the Tigers. Ga Tech and Johnson are very happy to be here in his first year at GT. Miles is going to have a hell of a time motivating this team after losing 3 out of 4 of their last games, and barely getting by Troy in that span. These SEC teams don't bother Ga Tech. They've already knocked off Georgia between the hedges. I think they'll do it again here in the Georgia Dome.
Vanderbilt (+6) over Boston College **
I took +5.5 and bought the half point (Bodog). In what I think will be a very low scoring game, I like the points here. I also like the coaching matchup with cagey vet Bobby Johnson vs Jagodzinski. And I like the situation with Boston College coming off a disappointing loss in the ACC Championship game. And Vandy has to be excited to be here after a 26 year bowl drought. And then getting to play in front of their home crowd. BC owns most of the stats here. Their both pretty close in the passing defense and rushing offense. BC owns the rushing defense and passing offense stats. But I question how good their offensive stats are going to be with backup QB Davis. And Vandy is a team that is very good at taking advantage of other team's mistakes (+6 turnover margin). That's a big reason why they won their first 5 games. A couple of interceptions or a fumble here or there could make this game very close. And it wouldn't surprise me at all if Vandy followed much the same gameplan as Virginia Tech did against BC and take away their run game and make Davis beat them with his arm.. VT's offense was also not much better than Vandy's. Nothing to write home about. It wouldn't surprise me at all if 10-14 points scored by Vandy covers this spread. There's nothing about BC that's going to scare this team after Vandy has faced teams like Ole Miss, Georgia and Florida this year. I can see BC being a 3 point favorite in this game. But not 6. I'll take my chances with the line and the home team. It wouldn't even surprise me if Vandy wins this one outright.
I took +5.5 and bought the half point (Bodog). In what I think will be a very low scoring game, I like the points here. I also like the coaching matchup with cagey vet Bobby Johnson vs Jagodzinski. And I like the situation with Boston College coming off a disappointing loss in the ACC Championship game. And Vandy has to be excited to be here after a 26 year bowl drought. And then getting to play in front of their home crowd. BC owns most of the stats here. Their both pretty close in the passing defense and rushing offense. BC owns the rushing defense and passing offense stats. But I question how good their offensive stats are going to be with backup QB Davis. And Vandy is a team that is very good at taking advantage of other team's mistakes (+6 turnover margin). That's a big reason why they won their first 5 games. A couple of interceptions or a fumble here or there could make this game very close. And it wouldn't surprise me at all if Vandy followed much the same gameplan as Virginia Tech did against BC and take away their run game and make Davis beat them with his arm.. VT's offense was also not much better than Vandy's. Nothing to write home about. It wouldn't surprise me at all if 10-14 points scored by Vandy covers this spread. There's nothing about BC that's going to scare this team after Vandy has faced teams like Ole Miss, Georgia and Florida this year. I can see BC being a 3 point favorite in this game. But not 6. I'll take my chances with the line and the home team. It wouldn't even surprise me if Vandy wins this one outright.
