Missouri (-12) over Northwestern **
Missouri falls under my triple threat teams (better running numbers, better defense, better SOS). So far these teams are 3-0 (USF, TCU, ND) in these bowls, with our only non-cover coming with TCU. I think we're going to find out the true strength of the Big 12 and the big 10 tonight. Missouri is no better than the 5th best team in the conference. But they have faced some of the best QB's and offenses in the nation. And this skews their passing defense numbers. And the fact that NW hasn't faced these good offenses make their numbers look better than they are. The one speedy team that NW faced was against OSU, and they pretty much got ran out of the stadium. Missouri is better on offense than Ohio State. And has a lot more weapons. It's true that the Tigers have regressed on defense this year. But some of this has to do with the high octane offenses that's they've faced. I think if you want to get a true guage of the better teams in the Big 12, just look what they've done to their out of conference opponents. As for Missouri, they've outscored their OOC competetion by 54-21. And two of those teams are playing in the bowls. NW on the other hand had problems getting past Duke and Ohio. What do you think Missouri would have done to these teams?
I hate to compare competetion. But from what I've seen from these two conferences, the Big 10 is very down this year, and the Big 12 is up. Despite their 9-3 record, the only significant win of any kind on their resume was against a mistake-prone Iowa team. Other than that they really haven't beaten a good well balanced team.. And NW ranks only 67th on offense. I think a big mismatch here is going to be the NW OL that has 3 redshirt freshman against Mizzou's experienced defensive line that is only giving up 133 ypg rushing. The same as NW. But in a better league. The bigger question will be how NW handles the Missouri pass game. And it's my opinion that since they haven't faced an offense of this caliber, their 28th rated pass defense is going to go down a few rankings. Missouri has played on a sloppy natural grass turf in KC for the last two games. You put them on a fast track in the controlled enviornment of the Alamo Dome where they played the Big 12 CG last year, and your going to see a different team. Senior Chase Daniel will be looking to end his career on a good note. And I expect him to have a big night. NW simply hasn't seen a good QB this year. The highest rated one that they faced was 31st ranked Juice Williams. Daniel is much better. And so is his receivers. When NW faced some halfway decent receivers against OSU, they got burned by the long pass play several times that day. And WR Jeremy Machlin can do the same thing to this defense. The big question here will be Mizzou's defense. And whether they can hold them at arms length. If the line was at 14 or over, I probably wouldn't have played Missouri. But I think they have a decent chance to cover this number. At any rate I feel a lot more comfortable taking Missouri in this spot than NW. NW has played in 5 bowls since the 1996 season, and lost all 5. I think their going to lose a 6th one here. Taking Missouri
Missouri falls under my triple threat teams (better running numbers, better defense, better SOS). So far these teams are 3-0 (USF, TCU, ND) in these bowls, with our only non-cover coming with TCU. I think we're going to find out the true strength of the Big 12 and the big 10 tonight. Missouri is no better than the 5th best team in the conference. But they have faced some of the best QB's and offenses in the nation. And this skews their passing defense numbers. And the fact that NW hasn't faced these good offenses make their numbers look better than they are. The one speedy team that NW faced was against OSU, and they pretty much got ran out of the stadium. Missouri is better on offense than Ohio State. And has a lot more weapons. It's true that the Tigers have regressed on defense this year. But some of this has to do with the high octane offenses that's they've faced. I think if you want to get a true guage of the better teams in the Big 12, just look what they've done to their out of conference opponents. As for Missouri, they've outscored their OOC competetion by 54-21. And two of those teams are playing in the bowls. NW on the other hand had problems getting past Duke and Ohio. What do you think Missouri would have done to these teams?
I hate to compare competetion. But from what I've seen from these two conferences, the Big 10 is very down this year, and the Big 12 is up. Despite their 9-3 record, the only significant win of any kind on their resume was against a mistake-prone Iowa team. Other than that they really haven't beaten a good well balanced team.. And NW ranks only 67th on offense. I think a big mismatch here is going to be the NW OL that has 3 redshirt freshman against Mizzou's experienced defensive line that is only giving up 133 ypg rushing. The same as NW. But in a better league. The bigger question will be how NW handles the Missouri pass game. And it's my opinion that since they haven't faced an offense of this caliber, their 28th rated pass defense is going to go down a few rankings. Missouri has played on a sloppy natural grass turf in KC for the last two games. You put them on a fast track in the controlled enviornment of the Alamo Dome where they played the Big 12 CG last year, and your going to see a different team. Senior Chase Daniel will be looking to end his career on a good note. And I expect him to have a big night. NW simply hasn't seen a good QB this year. The highest rated one that they faced was 31st ranked Juice Williams. Daniel is much better. And so is his receivers. When NW faced some halfway decent receivers against OSU, they got burned by the long pass play several times that day. And WR Jeremy Machlin can do the same thing to this defense. The big question here will be Mizzou's defense. And whether they can hold them at arms length. If the line was at 14 or over, I probably wouldn't have played Missouri. But I think they have a decent chance to cover this number. At any rate I feel a lot more comfortable taking Missouri in this spot than NW. NW has played in 5 bowls since the 1996 season, and lost all 5. I think their going to lose a 6th one here. Taking Missouri
The "Running Dogs" record so far:
Navy +1.21 (Loss)
Colorado State +.01 (Win)
BYU +.05 (Loss)
FAU +.76 (Win)
Wisconsin +.73 (Loss)
La Tech +1.44 (Win)
WMU +.90
Air Force +.68
Nebraska +1.12
Mississippi +.97
Kentucky +.11
Tulsa +.12
I just want to update the running dogs list. Note that La Tech started out as a running dog (+2) on my list, but was made the favorite by kickoff.
Navy +1.21 (Loss)
Colorado State +.01 (Win)
BYU +.05 (Loss)
FAU +.76 (Win)
Wisconsin +.73 (Loss)
La Tech +1.44 (Win)
WMU +.90
Air Force +.68
Nebraska +1.12
Mississippi +.97
Kentucky +.11
Tulsa +.12
I just want to update the running dogs list. Note that La Tech started out as a running dog (+2) on my list, but was made the favorite by kickoff.
Bowl plays:
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona ** (Loss)
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) ** (Win)
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno ** (Win)
Troy (-4) over Southern Miss ** (Loss)
TCU (-3) over Boise State ** (Loss)
Notre Dame (ML) over Hawaii ** (Win)
CMU (-7) over Florida Atlantic ** (Loss)
Wisconsin (+6) over Florida St. ** (Loss)
West Virginia (ML) over North Carolina ** (Win)
Miami (+10) over California ** (Win)
Miami/Cal (UNDER 25) First Half Play ** (Win)
La Tech (ML) over Northern Illinois ** (Win)
Missouri (-12) over Northwestern **
I just wanted to update my plays. I played the NCST/Rutgers game last week, which is why I got the good numbers on the totals and spread. I've got a writeup on the game somewhere back in my thread...BOL today
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona ** (Loss)
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) ** (Win)
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno ** (Win)
Troy (-4) over Southern Miss ** (Loss)
TCU (-3) over Boise State ** (Loss)
Notre Dame (ML) over Hawaii ** (Win)
CMU (-7) over Florida Atlantic ** (Loss)
Wisconsin (+6) over Florida St. ** (Loss)
West Virginia (ML) over North Carolina ** (Win)
Miami (+10) over California ** (Win)
Miami/Cal (UNDER 25) First Half Play ** (Win)
La Tech (ML) over Northern Illinois ** (Win)
Missouri (-12) over Northwestern **
I just wanted to update my plays. I played the NCST/Rutgers game last week, which is why I got the good numbers on the totals and spread. I've got a writeup on the game somewhere back in my thread...BOL today
I hear ya. But technically, based on the offenses that Missouri has faced, they are the better defense. Put Northwestern in their place. Could they have done any better defensively against OSU, Texas or OU? Very doubtful since they gave up 45 points at home to Ohio State. And didn't have to play the only other good offensive team in their conference Penn State.
Something else I forgot to mention. Because of the common numbers that college football games usually fall on, the key number for taking this over was 52. And the next key number was 56. If it falls in between these numbers your chances are much better than when it gets to 57. If it comes back to 56, or better yet 55.5 then I would get it. Otherwise I would leave it alone for an over play...BOL
GS-
just a note on totals-
55 is a key number, not 56
56 has really only one combination to end on: 35-21
42-14 is a blowout so is not common
a game can't end on 28-28 so you lose value (for over it makes it the same as 58.5)
thus 55.5 is the same as 56 in that instance for the under
if you are playing overs you're looking for 54.5 (it's not much different than 52.5)
if unders 55.5 is almost like 57.5 (57 needs 5 fgs and 56 has only one significant combo)
52 and 55 are key
just a note-
49 is more of a key number number than 56 (28-21 and 35-14 as oposed to 35-21)
:toast:
