I get over these bowl games pretty quick because there's so damn many of them. But some of these bonehead decisions by the coaches in these games is what makes me pull my hair out more than anything. I'm glad both of us could cash in this game. It looks like FSU's most dangerous offensive weapon is their punter...Ouch!
Trent...I almost got the +10.5 yesterday. But I didn't want to pay the extra juice at Bodog. Either way, I think we have a decent chance to cover. Cal is just not that good on offense. And their QB play is inconsistent at best. That's when you want to get the points in games like this. I also think the under has a good chance at hitting. Much of how this game goes depends on how clean of a game the Miami offense plays. If they don't turn it over, I think they can cover. Pac-10 people will probably disagree, but I don't think this is that big of a coaching mismatch...BOL:toast:
Well your right, I disagree. Tedford after taking over a perennial dog of a team in CAL has guided the Bears to a 58-30 record. He is also a proven bowl coach with a 4-1 record.
Shannon is a career .500 coach with zero bowl victories. At this point in his career, Shannon doesn't hold a candle to Tedford.
IMO Tedford's biggest weakness in betting his teams is that with big leads he has a tendency to get too conservative allowing for the backdoor. So that may work in your favor tonight. But, I've noticed that since he gave up playcalling it hasn't been as prevalent.
A concern that I would have for Miami is Harris. I think he brings a lot to the table in terms of potential but this CAL defense is very fast and the 3-4 will put those speedy linebackers into passing lanes. I am thinking there will be at least a few picks.
I have been considering middling this one with the line move but decided to stick. There is a way we can both win so best of luck tonight bud!
Ducks...I agree about Harris. He can make things happen. Naturally I'm concerned about him and this very young team making mistakes. And Miami losing their long snapper also doesn't help in the special teams area.. My bet is Miami will come into this game with a nothing to lose, us against the world attitude. So they may pull out all the stops in this game. As for the coaching part, I believe what Shannon is doing is getting rid of all of the dead weight troublemakers and the kids who don't want to dedicate themselves into playing for him. It's led to some negative articles that I've read about this team. But I believe in the long run this is much more than a positive than a negative. I also think Shannon has a very good assistant coaching staff. Don't get me wrong about Tedford. I think he's done very some good things at Cal in raising their program. But I also think they have been perennial underacheivers for the last few years when people expect the most from them. And to me, this has more to do with coaching than anything else. I also don't like the way he's handled his QB situation the last couple of years. As for this line, I would have taken Cal at -7. But no matter how good they look, very few double digit pre-January bowls get covered by the favorite. If there was a situation where it should, it would be here because of the proximity to their home field.. But when I look at these two teams, I don't see an athletic advantage for Cal. Just an experience edge. This isn't a big play for me. But I thought I would give it a stab at +10.. Good luck if you decide to middle it. Personally, I think it's a good opportunity for you considering that 7 out of these 9 bowls have fallen within 7 points or less of the closing lines. BOL:toast:
The "Running Dogs" record so far:
Navy +1.21 (Loss)
Colorado State +.01 (Win)
BYU +.05 (Loss)
FAU +.76 (Win)
Wisconsin +.73 (Loss)
La Tech +1.44
WMU +.90
Air Force +.68
Nebraska +1.12
Mississippi +.97
Kentucky +.11
Tulsa +.12
Strange day for the running dog Wisconsin. If you had told me before the game that Wisky would outrush FSU 201-134 I would have taken Wisky all day to cover or win. When a team outrushes the other almost 2 to 1 they very seldom lose a cover. But other aspects of the game killed us. The early backward pass that was fumbled by Wisky as they were going to go in and score totally changed the momentum of that game. Along with a couple questionable calls. Bottom line is Wisky had 3 TO's to FSU's 0. And FSU's special teams won them the game. Phenomenal punting and 155 return yards to Wisky's 3 made the difference in the game. Hopefully the next running dog La Tech will come through for us tomorrow.
Navy +1.21 (Loss)
Colorado State +.01 (Win)
BYU +.05 (Loss)
FAU +.76 (Win)
Wisconsin +.73 (Loss)
La Tech +1.44
WMU +.90
Air Force +.68
Nebraska +1.12
Mississippi +.97
Kentucky +.11
Tulsa +.12
Strange day for the running dog Wisconsin. If you had told me before the game that Wisky would outrush FSU 201-134 I would have taken Wisky all day to cover or win. When a team outrushes the other almost 2 to 1 they very seldom lose a cover. But other aspects of the game killed us. The early backward pass that was fumbled by Wisky as they were going to go in and score totally changed the momentum of that game. Along with a couple questionable calls. Bottom line is Wisky had 3 TO's to FSU's 0. And FSU's special teams won them the game. Phenomenal punting and 155 return yards to Wisky's 3 made the difference in the game. Hopefully the next running dog La Tech will come through for us tomorrow.
Bowl plays:
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona ** (Loss)
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) ** (Win)
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno ** (Win)
Troy (-4) over Southern Miss ** (Loss)
TCU (-3) over Boise State ** (Loss)
Notre Dame (ML) over Hawaii ** (Win)
CMU (-7) over Florida Atlantic ** (Loss)
Wisconsin (+6) over Florida St. ** (Loss)
West Virginia (ML) over North Carolina ** (Win)
Miami (+10) over California ** (Win)
Miami/Cal (UNDER 25) First Half Play ** (Win)
Overall a great day going 3-1. I'll have a writeup for the La Tech/NIU game later...BOL
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona ** (Loss)
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) ** (Win)
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno ** (Win)
Troy (-4) over Southern Miss ** (Loss)
TCU (-3) over Boise State ** (Loss)
Notre Dame (ML) over Hawaii ** (Win)
CMU (-7) over Florida Atlantic ** (Loss)
Wisconsin (+6) over Florida St. ** (Loss)
West Virginia (ML) over North Carolina ** (Win)
Miami (+10) over California ** (Win)
Miami/Cal (UNDER 25) First Half Play ** (Win)
Overall a great day going 3-1. I'll have a writeup for the La Tech/NIU game later...BOL
Damn I been playing all your picks. I didnt notice you had WVu as a ML play and i missed your total on the Miami game.
Like a freaking idiot i take WVU -1.5 and DIDNT BUY DOWN the point. I always buy it down.. I guess thats what happens when you have 12 coronas in you! Go SOONERS you had WVU as a ML pick the whole time?
La Tech (ML) over Northern Illinois **
When this line got over pickem I decided to play it on the moneyline just to be on the safe side. I'm not real comfortable taking La Tech when they've gone from a 2 point dog to a 3 point favorite in some places. But I think they are the right side or a no play. I started taking notice of this team's improvement when they went to San Jose back on Nov.8th and won 21-0 as 7 point dogs. And although some might question the quality of their opponents the last few games, it's really not much different than the quality of their division 1 opponents in their first 6 games. They've gone from 2-4 to start the season to 4-1 their last 5. And they've improved in the rushing department. On the season LT averages 190 yards rushing. The last 5 games they're averaging 221 ypg. And that's against a couple teams with good rushing defenses like San Jose and Nevada. Nevada only allows 81 yards rushing per game. And LT lit them up for 185 yards in their last game. Northern Illinois has made a marked improvement under first year coach Kill from 2-10 to 6-6. However NIU doesn't have a quality win over a winning program on their resume. I know they've come close to beating a couple winning programs. But this team can't seem to get over the hump and learn to win a big game. NIU has also somewhat regressed on offense from their season average to their last 5 games. They are averaging 333 ypg on the season. But only 313 their last 5 games. Where they've gone downhill the most is in passing yards per game where they've gone from 170 for the season to 147 ypg. And I think it's going to hurt them here if they can't pass against a weak La Tech pass defense. La Tech is very good against the run. And if NIU can't pass the ball, I don't see how they win this game. On the other side, although they don't have an offense to write home about, I think La Tech can have enough success running the ball in front of their home crowd to get the job done. Having seen NIU's offense in their last game against Navy, it's pretty obvious they have a ways to go. I think they are still a work in progress under first year coach Kill. I feel that La Tech is a little bit more establised a program under second year coach and up and comer Dooley. Both defenses are fairly even. With NIU having a slight advantage. Both of these conferences look to be fairly even this year. I think the two things La Tech has going for them here is an offense that isn't struggling quite as bad as NIU. And the home field proximity advantage. But my numbers have NIU winning this by 4. And this probably has more to do with their schedule than anything else. But at any rate, I'm keeping my bet light on this game because of my numbers. But because I don't feel NIU can exploit La Tech's weaknesses here, it doesn't look like a good matchup for NIU. Plus La Tech was one of my running dogs (+1.55) before this line move. So i still think they have a very good chance to outrush NIU in this spot and get the win....BOL
When this line got over pickem I decided to play it on the moneyline just to be on the safe side. I'm not real comfortable taking La Tech when they've gone from a 2 point dog to a 3 point favorite in some places. But I think they are the right side or a no play. I started taking notice of this team's improvement when they went to San Jose back on Nov.8th and won 21-0 as 7 point dogs. And although some might question the quality of their opponents the last few games, it's really not much different than the quality of their division 1 opponents in their first 6 games. They've gone from 2-4 to start the season to 4-1 their last 5. And they've improved in the rushing department. On the season LT averages 190 yards rushing. The last 5 games they're averaging 221 ypg. And that's against a couple teams with good rushing defenses like San Jose and Nevada. Nevada only allows 81 yards rushing per game. And LT lit them up for 185 yards in their last game. Northern Illinois has made a marked improvement under first year coach Kill from 2-10 to 6-6. However NIU doesn't have a quality win over a winning program on their resume. I know they've come close to beating a couple winning programs. But this team can't seem to get over the hump and learn to win a big game. NIU has also somewhat regressed on offense from their season average to their last 5 games. They are averaging 333 ypg on the season. But only 313 their last 5 games. Where they've gone downhill the most is in passing yards per game where they've gone from 170 for the season to 147 ypg. And I think it's going to hurt them here if they can't pass against a weak La Tech pass defense. La Tech is very good against the run. And if NIU can't pass the ball, I don't see how they win this game. On the other side, although they don't have an offense to write home about, I think La Tech can have enough success running the ball in front of their home crowd to get the job done. Having seen NIU's offense in their last game against Navy, it's pretty obvious they have a ways to go. I think they are still a work in progress under first year coach Kill. I feel that La Tech is a little bit more establised a program under second year coach and up and comer Dooley. Both defenses are fairly even. With NIU having a slight advantage. Both of these conferences look to be fairly even this year. I think the two things La Tech has going for them here is an offense that isn't struggling quite as bad as NIU. And the home field proximity advantage. But my numbers have NIU winning this by 4. And this probably has more to do with their schedule than anything else. But at any rate, I'm keeping my bet light on this game because of my numbers. But because I don't feel NIU can exploit La Tech's weaknesses here, it doesn't look like a good matchup for NIU. Plus La Tech was one of my running dogs (+1.55) before this line move. So i still think they have a very good chance to outrush NIU in this spot and get the win....BOL
I think you did the right thing by not betting the moneyline or buying down. These games usually don't fall this close to the line. We just happened to have two of them already with TCU and WV. I lost the TCU game because I had the -3. So being a little paranoid I bet the WV game on the ML. I also bet the game tonight on the ML because I expect a close low scoring game. And again the paranoid factor comes into play. But in the long run it's really not a good idea to buy points like this and spend all that money on the juice. It's nice as long as your winning. Just don't lose.
Bowl plays:
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona ** (Loss)
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) ** (Win)
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno ** (Win)
Troy (-4) over Southern Miss ** (Loss)
TCU (-3) over Boise State ** (Loss)
Notre Dame (ML) over Hawaii ** (Win)
CMU (-7) over Florida Atlantic ** (Loss)
Wisconsin (+6) over Florida St. ** (Loss)
West Virginia (ML) over North Carolina ** (Win)
Miami (+10) over California ** (Win)
Miami/Cal (UNDER 25) First Half Play ** (Win)
La Tech (ML) over Northern Illinois ** (Win)
Things are looking up. I'm working on the Mizzou/Northwestern game. And I hope to have a play on it tomorrow.
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona ** (Loss)
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) ** (Win)
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno ** (Win)
Troy (-4) over Southern Miss ** (Loss)
TCU (-3) over Boise State ** (Loss)
Notre Dame (ML) over Hawaii ** (Win)
CMU (-7) over Florida Atlantic ** (Loss)
Wisconsin (+6) over Florida St. ** (Loss)
West Virginia (ML) over North Carolina ** (Win)
Miami (+10) over California ** (Win)
Miami/Cal (UNDER 25) First Half Play ** (Win)
La Tech (ML) over Northern Illinois ** (Win)
Things are looking up. I'm working on the Mizzou/Northwestern game. And I hope to have a play on it tomorrow.
I wouldn't play NC State at +6.5...This line is now back down to where it started. I just happened to catch it at Bodog when it got up to +9. I think Rutgers is very capable of winning this game by a TD. Even though they started the season out bad, they have compiled a 7-5 record with a very tough schedule. Having to play at West Virginia, Cincy, Pitt and USF on the road is as tough as it gets in the Big East. So this is a pretty battled hardened team who's players have been to a bowl game before, and playing a team who hasn't been there in 3 years. The intangibles favor Rutgers. I'm just hoping that UNC can stay within 9. I liked the over play when the total was at 53. But where it is at 56 makes it a much more iffy bet. I've even thought about taking a stab at the middle here. If I see a 6 somewhere I may try it....BOL
