I would have a slight lean to Central Michigan if it was under a TD.. But the only problem in giving points in a game like this is historically bad defensive teams don't do well in covering spreads of a touchdown or more on a neutral field. Believe it or not, the over might still be the best play to make in this game. I think CM could score 40 points by themselves. I just don't know if they can hold a very experienced FAU team at 7 point distance. Even with the injuries to the OL. Not a great game to bet. But I might take a stab at it before kickoff. On the games tomorrow, I kind of like all three dogs. But I also hate to go against my best running team numbers in two of those games. And that would be Cal and WV. The problem with WV isn't their running numbers. But the intangibles surrounding the game favor NC having the better coach. And probably better conference. And the game being played for all practical purposes at home. Very tough call on that game. That's why I'm also looking at the totals for a few of these games. I'm also having a few problems with Miami/Cal. I had no problem when Cal was at -7. But at -8.5 it makes it a bit more difficult. Miami may not be as bad a team as people think. They caught a couple hot teams on the road their last two games. But people forget they were on a 5 game winning streak before that. Including a win over conference champ Virginia Tech.
I'm having a few problems with this game. The intangibles such as coaching and a home field/state advantage favor NC. But I'm wondering if NC might not have peaked and are on the downslide a little. They haven't really looked good in their last 3 games. And the best player on the field will be Pat White, who has yet to lose a bowl game. Plus WV has the numbers advantage on offense, and a very good defense. Plus I think it's probably helped WV that they've been in some very competetive games in 3 out of their last 4 games of the season. So their pretty battle tested coming into this game. Tough call because I really like Butch Davis. I'm just not sure though if he might not be another year away yet from having the kind of team he wants.
Central Michigan (-7) over Florida Atlantic **
I'm going against my running dogs system for this game. Some of it has to do with the FAU suspensions. Most of it has to do with the intangibles and CM strength of schedule. I also like CM's more experienced OL and better overall QB play, which I think could be the difference in this game. I'm also thinking the Chips will be looking to get the bad taste out of their mouth from their last game loss to Eastern Michigan. I think that loss came directly as a result of CM losing the week before to Ball State with all the marbles on the line, and then a natural letdown the next week in a meaningless game... They should come into this game much sharper in front of their home crowd. The more I look at this game, the more I think the CM's defense could step up a bit for this game. If you throw their last game out against EM, the most points that they've given up in regulation against a non-BCS team is Ball State with 31. They are giving up about 25 ppg in conference play. They are facing a good QB in Rusty Smith. But I would lay odds that Smith isn't any better than Nate Davis of Ball State. So in my opinion, unless this is an absolute CM blowout and FAU gets some points in junk time, I think CM can probably hold FAU to 31 points or less. Especially with FAU's OL problems. The question is how many points can CM score? And I think against a FAU defense that gives up over 400 ypg in a weak conference that CM can get into the high 30's or 40's, Much like what they scored against Western Michigan and Indiana. Teams with comparable defenses to FAU. CM's defense is nothing to write home about. And if the line was any higher I wouldn't consider them. But I think FAU's suspensions could hurt them a little more than they should since they were very recent suspensions.. I think with the new blockers it could take away their running game, which noramlly would have given them the edge here..Liking CM in a high scoring game.
Central Michigan 42
Florida Atlantic 31
I'm going against my running dogs system for this game. Some of it has to do with the FAU suspensions. Most of it has to do with the intangibles and CM strength of schedule. I also like CM's more experienced OL and better overall QB play, which I think could be the difference in this game. I'm also thinking the Chips will be looking to get the bad taste out of their mouth from their last game loss to Eastern Michigan. I think that loss came directly as a result of CM losing the week before to Ball State with all the marbles on the line, and then a natural letdown the next week in a meaningless game... They should come into this game much sharper in front of their home crowd. The more I look at this game, the more I think the CM's defense could step up a bit for this game. If you throw their last game out against EM, the most points that they've given up in regulation against a non-BCS team is Ball State with 31. They are giving up about 25 ppg in conference play. They are facing a good QB in Rusty Smith. But I would lay odds that Smith isn't any better than Nate Davis of Ball State. So in my opinion, unless this is an absolute CM blowout and FAU gets some points in junk time, I think CM can probably hold FAU to 31 points or less. Especially with FAU's OL problems. The question is how many points can CM score? And I think against a FAU defense that gives up over 400 ypg in a weak conference that CM can get into the high 30's or 40's, Much like what they scored against Western Michigan and Indiana. Teams with comparable defenses to FAU. CM's defense is nothing to write home about. And if the line was any higher I wouldn't consider them. But I think FAU's suspensions could hurt them a little more than they should since they were very recent suspensions.. I think with the new blockers it could take away their running game, which noramlly would have given them the edge here..Liking CM in a high scoring game.
Central Michigan 42
Florida Atlantic 31
Wisconsin (+6) over Florida State **
Wisky falls under my running dog system. And I see no reason not to take them here. Statistically they have the better running game. And the defenses are almost dead even. I also give Sherer and Everidge the edge at QB over FSU's Ponder. Statistically they are better. They have better PE's. And better int/td ratio than Ponder. And overall, Wisky has a ton more experience than FSU. FSU's offense has been erratic at best this season. And I'm still not sure if they've figured out if they want to be a run team or a pass team. At any rate they're only averaging about 330 ypg of total offense. Wisky has seen better offenses this year. And I think they have the defense to keep FSU in check. And the offense to keep the chains moving and keep this game interesting. And possibly even win it outright. The public seems to be all over FSU in this game. But i really haven't heard a legit reason why they are head and shoulders above Wisky. I'll take my 6 points.
West Virginia (ML) over North Carolina **
I'm not fond of giving points in what could be a close game. But if it's as close as I think it's going to be, I favor WV just based on the close battles that they've had recently against the better teams in the Big East. WV is one of my better running teams. Much better than UNC. And I also think WV has the better defense. They'll have the best player on the field with Pat White. And the big game bowl experience over UNC. It's true that UNC is a team on the way up, and WV is probably a team on the way down. But I don't think it will be until next season. UNC is still in the learning process. And WV has been there before. Pat White still has a purpose in winning this game to be the first QB to win 4 straight bowl games. I know that UNC is the media darlings here. And Butch Davis is still one of my favorite coaches. There will be a coaching advantage for UNC. But beyond that, I really don't see enough of an advantage to take UNC in this spot.
Miami (+10) over CAL **
I liked Cal before this line got over 7 points. That's when i had to lean to Miami in this game. In my opinion the Cal offense is a little overrated. And the Miami offense is a little underrated. It's true that Cal is one of my running teams. But they aren't a running dog. And they're now double digit favorites. Big difference. Miami has been erratic offensively this year. But they are still averaging 28 ppg in a good defensive league. They are also one of the best red zone offenses in the country having scored 41 of 44 times inside the red zone. Plus they have one of the best FG kickers in the country with Bosher. This gives this team a fighting chance. It's true that they've given up quite a few rushing yards the last two games. But they've also played the two hottest teams in the ACC vs Ga Tech and a red hot NCST. As we all know, the GT triple option is a much harder offense to defend than the more straight ahead Cal. And NCST had success on Miami because of their great QB play by Russell Wilson. Cal's QB play has also been erratic this season with Tedford going back and forth with both QB's.. So in my opinion, this Cal offense is a step down from the last two offenses that Miami has faced. Miami is also good at getting pressure on the QB. And I can definitely see them putting some pressure on the Cal passing game. I look for Miami to stack the box and make the QB beat them. They might and might not. But I do know that Miami has a top 50 defense. And Cal is only averaging scoring 22 ppg against top 50 defenses. So in what i think will be a low scoring game, I like the 10 points. Miami has only been a dog of more than 3 points just once this season. And that was against Florida. A game the Gators barely covered. And Cal is no Florida.
Wisky falls under my running dog system. And I see no reason not to take them here. Statistically they have the better running game. And the defenses are almost dead even. I also give Sherer and Everidge the edge at QB over FSU's Ponder. Statistically they are better. They have better PE's. And better int/td ratio than Ponder. And overall, Wisky has a ton more experience than FSU. FSU's offense has been erratic at best this season. And I'm still not sure if they've figured out if they want to be a run team or a pass team. At any rate they're only averaging about 330 ypg of total offense. Wisky has seen better offenses this year. And I think they have the defense to keep FSU in check. And the offense to keep the chains moving and keep this game interesting. And possibly even win it outright. The public seems to be all over FSU in this game. But i really haven't heard a legit reason why they are head and shoulders above Wisky. I'll take my 6 points.
West Virginia (ML) over North Carolina **
I'm not fond of giving points in what could be a close game. But if it's as close as I think it's going to be, I favor WV just based on the close battles that they've had recently against the better teams in the Big East. WV is one of my better running teams. Much better than UNC. And I also think WV has the better defense. They'll have the best player on the field with Pat White. And the big game bowl experience over UNC. It's true that UNC is a team on the way up, and WV is probably a team on the way down. But I don't think it will be until next season. UNC is still in the learning process. And WV has been there before. Pat White still has a purpose in winning this game to be the first QB to win 4 straight bowl games. I know that UNC is the media darlings here. And Butch Davis is still one of my favorite coaches. There will be a coaching advantage for UNC. But beyond that, I really don't see enough of an advantage to take UNC in this spot.
Miami (+10) over CAL **
I liked Cal before this line got over 7 points. That's when i had to lean to Miami in this game. In my opinion the Cal offense is a little overrated. And the Miami offense is a little underrated. It's true that Cal is one of my running teams. But they aren't a running dog. And they're now double digit favorites. Big difference. Miami has been erratic offensively this year. But they are still averaging 28 ppg in a good defensive league. They are also one of the best red zone offenses in the country having scored 41 of 44 times inside the red zone. Plus they have one of the best FG kickers in the country with Bosher. This gives this team a fighting chance. It's true that they've given up quite a few rushing yards the last two games. But they've also played the two hottest teams in the ACC vs Ga Tech and a red hot NCST. As we all know, the GT triple option is a much harder offense to defend than the more straight ahead Cal. And NCST had success on Miami because of their great QB play by Russell Wilson. Cal's QB play has also been erratic this season with Tedford going back and forth with both QB's.. So in my opinion, this Cal offense is a step down from the last two offenses that Miami has faced. Miami is also good at getting pressure on the QB. And I can definitely see them putting some pressure on the Cal passing game. I look for Miami to stack the box and make the QB beat them. They might and might not. But I do know that Miami has a top 50 defense. And Cal is only averaging scoring 22 ppg against top 50 defenses. So in what i think will be a low scoring game, I like the 10 points. Miami has only been a dog of more than 3 points just once this season. And that was against Florida. A game the Gators barely covered. And Cal is no Florida.
Bowl plays:
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona ** (Loss)
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) ** (Win)
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno ** (Win)
Troy (-4) over Southern Miss ** (Loss)
TCU (-3) over Boise State ** (Loss)
Notre Dame (ML) over Hawaii ** (Win)
CMU (-7) over Florida Atlantic ** (Loss)
Wisconsin (+6) over Florida St. **
West Virginia (ML) over North Carolina **
Miami (+10) over Cal **
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona ** (Loss)
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) ** (Win)
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno ** (Win)
Troy (-4) over Southern Miss ** (Loss)
TCU (-3) over Boise State ** (Loss)
Notre Dame (ML) over Hawaii ** (Win)
CMU (-7) over Florida Atlantic ** (Loss)
Wisconsin (+6) over Florida St. **
West Virginia (ML) over North Carolina **
Miami (+10) over Cal **
My original thought was the under in the UNC/WV game. But WV's offense can be very hard to prepare for in these bowls. So it makes it a little more iffy. But most of my formulas come out to the under. I also like the under in the Cal/Miami game as well. But when the line got up to 10 I decided to take a stab at Miami. I don't have a lot of faith in a young Miami team and their coach. But I have a little less confidence in giving double digits with Cal. If the line was still at 7 I would have taken da Bears. Good luck in the bowls Jimmy.:toast:
With you and Dr. Bob on WV it seems that's the right play, expecially w/ the public on UNC. BOL GS.
BTW, how 'bout that Jamarcus McFarland recruiting saga? I think we haven't seen the beginning of this can of worms. When a momma accuses schools of improper behavior, she might've just opened up something that will cause a lot of stink. People at Texas aren't worried one bit either, in fact they've already turned in hundreds of pages of documented paperwork on his recruitment to the NCAA. This will be looked at I can assure you. Let's hit these games tomorrow!
BTW, how 'bout that Jamarcus McFarland recruiting saga? I think we haven't seen the beginning of this can of worms. When a momma accuses schools of improper behavior, she might've just opened up something that will cause a lot of stink. People at Texas aren't worried one bit either, in fact they've already turned in hundreds of pages of documented paperwork on his recruitment to the NCAA. This will be looked at I can assure you. Let's hit these games tomorrow!
I just want to touch on the coaching advantage in the WVU game. I do agree with you that Butch is a better coach than Stewart but at the same time you would have said the same thing last year with Stoops over Stewart. Coaching advantage or not WVU always brings it in bowl games. I don't know if it is the coaches being able to get them ready to play or not but it just seems early in every bowl game WVU comes out with much more intensity then whoever they play. I think the trend stays the same today with WVU, i think they come out with big time emotion and get an early lead on UNC like they have the past few years against Oklahoma and Georgia and ride that lead out. BOL Keep up the good work.
The coaching is still my biggest concern for this game. I've seen Stewart do a couple bonehead coaching moves in game. Specifically at Colorado. The big difference between Stewart last year vs Stoops and Stewart this year vs Davis is last year it was still basically coach Rodriguez team. This year it's Stewart's team. HUGE difference. My hope is that he has enough experienced players to get it done today. This is the one place WV has the advantage, along with the runninhg numbers and defense. But the intangibles favor NC in this game. That's why this was just a small play for me.
