Go Sooners, thanks for the explanation. I have been following your system the last 2 years, so I know it works. TCU is much better then what they put up in points. I am confident these will turn around to our favor sticking to the system. Thanks for the plays and hoping we get one tonight.
I'm bringing up the Keepers Powers Ratings again so we can get some reference. Keepers has't been that far off in these games. Navy was the only one that it missed the boat on. But as we know that game was much closer than the final score. And it had Troy by 2.87 and they lost a game they should have won by 3. It hit TCU just about on the head last night. I should have followed advice and bet TCU on the Moneyline. It's got Notre Dame by 15 tonight. Let's hope it's right.
KCFR Bowl Predictions are from latest team Power Ratings
adjusted with season prediction differential results.
* indicates 3 point home proximity advantage included
DATE FAVORITE ----------- UNDERDOG ----------- LINE
Dec20 Arizona ------------ Brigham Young ------ 12.02
Dec20 Colorado State ----- Fresno State ------- 5.91
Dec20 South Florida *----- Memphis ------------ 9.04
Dec20 Navy --------------- Wake Forest -------- 7.61
Dec21 Troy --------------- Southern Mississippi 2.87
Dec23 Texas Christian ---- Boise State -------- 1.86
Dec24 Notre Dame --------- @ Hawaii ----------- 15.42
Dec26 Central Michigan --- Florida Atlantic --- 8.78
Dec27 California *-------- Miami-Florida ------ 15.27
Dec27 West Virginia ------ North Carolina ----- 0.20
Dec27 Florida State ------ Wisconsin ---------- 3.78
Dec28 Northern Illinois -- Louisiana Tech ----- 4.28
Dec29 Missouri ----------- Northwestern ------- 6.06
Dec29 Rutgers ------------ North Carolina State 8.68
Dec30 Nevada ------------- Maryland ----------- 5.04
Dec30 Oregon ------------- Oklahoma State ----- 1.04
Dec30 Rice *-------------- Western Michigan --- 9.67
Dec31 Vanderbilt *-------- Boston College ----- 2.34
Dec31 Georgia Tech *------ L S U -------------- 9.26
Dec31 Houston ------------ Air Force ---------- 6.66
Dec31 Kansas ------------- Minnesota ---------- 2.64
Dec31 Oregon State ------- Pittsburgh --------- 5.27
Jan01 Cincinnati --------- Virginia Tech ------ 1.68
Jan01 Georgia ------------ Michigan State ----- 3.93
Jan01 Iowa --------------- South Carolina ----- 23.32
Jan01 Nebraska ----------- Clemson ------------ 1.79
Jan01 U S C *------------- Penn State --------- 10.41
Jan02 Alabama ------------ Utah --------------- 8.09
Jan02 East Carolina ------ Kentucky ----------- 7.93
Jan02 Texas Tech --------- Mississippi -------- 0.31
Jan03 Connecticut -------- Buffalo ------------ 1.21
Jan05 Texas -------------- Ohio State --------- 16.56
Jan06 Ball State --------- Tulsa -------------- 1.02
Jan08 Oklahoma ----------- Florida ------------ 2.82
These predictions are based on pass & rush offense vs defense stats
comparisons without adjustment for schedule strength or home field.
DATE LOCATION PREDICTED SCORE
Dec20 Washington DC Navy 21, Wake Forest 16
Dec20 Albuquerque NM Fresno St 31, Colorado St 30
Dec20 St Petersburg FL South Florida 25, Memphis 24
Dec20 Las Vegas NV BYU 32, Arizona 30
Dec21 New Orleans LA Troy 30, Southern Miss 26
Dec23 San Diego CA TCU 23, Boise St 22
Dec24 Honolulu HI Notre Dame 23, Hawaii 22
Dec26 Detroit MI Fla Atlantic 33, Central Michigan 30
Dec27 Charlotte NC West Virginia 21, North Carolina 16
Dec27 Orlando FL Florida St 27, Wisconsin 26
Dec27 San Francisco CA California 28, Miami 24
Dec28 Shreveport LA Northern Ill 23, Louisiana Tech 19
Dec29 Birmingham AL Rutgers 28, NC State 16
Dec29 San Antonio TX Missouri 35, Northwestern 28
Dec30 Boise ID Nevada 32, Maryland 27
Dec30 Houston TX Western Mich 42, Rice 38
Dec30 San Diego CA Oregon 46, Oklahoma St 45
Dec31 Fort Worth TX Houston 41, Air Force 28
Dec31 El Paso TX Oregon St 31, Pittsburgh 26
Dec31 Nashville TN Boston College 20, Vanderbilt 13
Dec31 Tempe AZ Kansas 31, Minnesota 26
Dec31 Atlanta GA Georgia Tech 24, LSU 23
Jan01 Tampa FL Iowa 18, South Carolina 17
Jan01 Orlando FL Georgia 31, Michigan St 21
Jan01 Jacksonville FL Nebraska 30, Clemson 26
Jan01 Pasadena CA USC 25, Penn St 21
Jan01 Miami FL Cincinnati 20, Virginia Tech 16
Jan02 Dallas TX Texas Tech 41, Mississippi 27
Jan02 Memphis TN East Carolina 19, Kentucky 18
Jan02 New Orleans LA Utah 24, Alabama 23
Jan03 Toronto ON Connecticut 28, Buffalo 21
Jan05 Glendale AZ Texas 29, Ohio St 23
Jan06 Mobile AL Tulsa 43, Ball St 39
Jan08 Miami FL Oklahoma 46, Florida 42
KCFR Bowl Predictions are from latest team Power Ratings
adjusted with season prediction differential results.
* indicates 3 point home proximity advantage included
DATE FAVORITE ----------- UNDERDOG ----------- LINE
Dec20 Arizona ------------ Brigham Young ------ 12.02
Dec20 Colorado State ----- Fresno State ------- 5.91
Dec20 South Florida *----- Memphis ------------ 9.04
Dec20 Navy --------------- Wake Forest -------- 7.61
Dec21 Troy --------------- Southern Mississippi 2.87
Dec23 Texas Christian ---- Boise State -------- 1.86
Dec24 Notre Dame --------- @ Hawaii ----------- 15.42
Dec26 Central Michigan --- Florida Atlantic --- 8.78
Dec27 California *-------- Miami-Florida ------ 15.27
Dec27 West Virginia ------ North Carolina ----- 0.20
Dec27 Florida State ------ Wisconsin ---------- 3.78
Dec28 Northern Illinois -- Louisiana Tech ----- 4.28
Dec29 Missouri ----------- Northwestern ------- 6.06
Dec29 Rutgers ------------ North Carolina State 8.68
Dec30 Nevada ------------- Maryland ----------- 5.04
Dec30 Oregon ------------- Oklahoma State ----- 1.04
Dec30 Rice *-------------- Western Michigan --- 9.67
Dec31 Vanderbilt *-------- Boston College ----- 2.34
Dec31 Georgia Tech *------ L S U -------------- 9.26
Dec31 Houston ------------ Air Force ---------- 6.66
Dec31 Kansas ------------- Minnesota ---------- 2.64
Dec31 Oregon State ------- Pittsburgh --------- 5.27
Jan01 Cincinnati --------- Virginia Tech ------ 1.68
Jan01 Georgia ------------ Michigan State ----- 3.93
Jan01 Iowa --------------- South Carolina ----- 23.32
Jan01 Nebraska ----------- Clemson ------------ 1.79
Jan01 U S C *------------- Penn State --------- 10.41
Jan02 Alabama ------------ Utah --------------- 8.09
Jan02 East Carolina ------ Kentucky ----------- 7.93
Jan02 Texas Tech --------- Mississippi -------- 0.31
Jan03 Connecticut -------- Buffalo ------------ 1.21
Jan05 Texas -------------- Ohio State --------- 16.56
Jan06 Ball State --------- Tulsa -------------- 1.02
Jan08 Oklahoma ----------- Florida ------------ 2.82
These predictions are based on pass & rush offense vs defense stats
comparisons without adjustment for schedule strength or home field.
DATE LOCATION PREDICTED SCORE
Dec20 Washington DC Navy 21, Wake Forest 16
Dec20 Albuquerque NM Fresno St 31, Colorado St 30
Dec20 St Petersburg FL South Florida 25, Memphis 24
Dec20 Las Vegas NV BYU 32, Arizona 30
Dec21 New Orleans LA Troy 30, Southern Miss 26
Dec23 San Diego CA TCU 23, Boise St 22
Dec24 Honolulu HI Notre Dame 23, Hawaii 22
Dec26 Detroit MI Fla Atlantic 33, Central Michigan 30
Dec27 Charlotte NC West Virginia 21, North Carolina 16
Dec27 Orlando FL Florida St 27, Wisconsin 26
Dec27 San Francisco CA California 28, Miami 24
Dec28 Shreveport LA Northern Ill 23, Louisiana Tech 19
Dec29 Birmingham AL Rutgers 28, NC State 16
Dec29 San Antonio TX Missouri 35, Northwestern 28
Dec30 Boise ID Nevada 32, Maryland 27
Dec30 Houston TX Western Mich 42, Rice 38
Dec30 San Diego CA Oregon 46, Oklahoma St 45
Dec31 Fort Worth TX Houston 41, Air Force 28
Dec31 El Paso TX Oregon St 31, Pittsburgh 26
Dec31 Nashville TN Boston College 20, Vanderbilt 13
Dec31 Tempe AZ Kansas 31, Minnesota 26
Dec31 Atlanta GA Georgia Tech 24, LSU 23
Jan01 Tampa FL Iowa 18, South Carolina 17
Jan01 Orlando FL Georgia 31, Michigan St 21
Jan01 Jacksonville FL Nebraska 30, Clemson 26
Jan01 Pasadena CA USC 25, Penn St 21
Jan01 Miami FL Cincinnati 20, Virginia Tech 16
Jan02 Dallas TX Texas Tech 41, Mississippi 27
Jan02 Memphis TN East Carolina 19, Kentucky 18
Jan02 New Orleans LA Utah 24, Alabama 23
Jan03 Toronto ON Connecticut 28, Buffalo 21
Jan05 Glendale AZ Texas 29, Ohio St 23
Jan06 Mobile AL Tulsa 43, Ball St 39
Jan08 Miami FL Oklahoma 46, Florida 42
Notre Dame (ML) over Hawaii **
Notre Dame falls under my triple threat teams (better running game, better defense, better SOS). So this is pretty much an automatic selection for me. But after last night, the hell with giving the two points. I'm taking it on the Moneyline, despite the stats being overwhelming in favor of Notre Dame. I think there has been some question on the board on who is the best running team. ND is. But it is by a very slight margin. But the reason why I think ND will have the best of the running numbers in this game is the last game that Hawaii played against Cincy. Cincy averages the same amount of rushing yards per game as ND. And both rush defenses aren't very far apart either. Cincy outrushed Hawaii by about 140-45. So it really wasn't close. Where Hawaii got their yards was in the passing game (275 yards). But Notre Dame has the #28 pass effeciency defense in the country. And it is statistically better than Cincy's. So it tells me that as long as ND is focused in this game, they should be able to shut Hawaii down as well or better than Cincy did. And as we know, Cincy didn't have a whole lot to play for in that game. And if they were focused probably would have taken care of Hawaii much easier than they did. Notre Dame and Weis should have a purpose coming into this game. There is a lot of pressure on Weis from the alumni and media to make this a winning season. And beating Hawaii and going 7-6 looks much better than ending the season losing to a less talented Non-BCS team and going 6-7. Hawaii has improved somewhat on offense in the last few weeks. But this is still an erratic team who makes too many mistakes on offense. And despite the mistakes that Clausen has made this season, it has been against much superior competetion. Hawaii really didn't have a set QB until a month ago. And their running game is still bad (97 ypg rushing) So I give the QB and run edge slightly to ND. I feel that the biggest edge that ND has is on defense. And running and defense should win them the game. The only thing I worry about with ND is the coaching aspect. Weis is like Wannstadt. He's terrible at keeping a team focused. Hence the leads they've blown in their games against Stanford, Pitt, Navy and Syracuse. So I hope they'll be able to close this game out. There should be enough pressure on them and they should be focused enough to get it done. But after last night I feel kind of snakebit. So I'm not taking any chances with this line.
Notre Dame falls under my triple threat teams (better running game, better defense, better SOS). So this is pretty much an automatic selection for me. But after last night, the hell with giving the two points. I'm taking it on the Moneyline, despite the stats being overwhelming in favor of Notre Dame. I think there has been some question on the board on who is the best running team. ND is. But it is by a very slight margin. But the reason why I think ND will have the best of the running numbers in this game is the last game that Hawaii played against Cincy. Cincy averages the same amount of rushing yards per game as ND. And both rush defenses aren't very far apart either. Cincy outrushed Hawaii by about 140-45. So it really wasn't close. Where Hawaii got their yards was in the passing game (275 yards). But Notre Dame has the #28 pass effeciency defense in the country. And it is statistically better than Cincy's. So it tells me that as long as ND is focused in this game, they should be able to shut Hawaii down as well or better than Cincy did. And as we know, Cincy didn't have a whole lot to play for in that game. And if they were focused probably would have taken care of Hawaii much easier than they did. Notre Dame and Weis should have a purpose coming into this game. There is a lot of pressure on Weis from the alumni and media to make this a winning season. And beating Hawaii and going 7-6 looks much better than ending the season losing to a less talented Non-BCS team and going 6-7. Hawaii has improved somewhat on offense in the last few weeks. But this is still an erratic team who makes too many mistakes on offense. And despite the mistakes that Clausen has made this season, it has been against much superior competetion. Hawaii really didn't have a set QB until a month ago. And their running game is still bad (97 ypg rushing) So I give the QB and run edge slightly to ND. I feel that the biggest edge that ND has is on defense. And running and defense should win them the game. The only thing I worry about with ND is the coaching aspect. Weis is like Wannstadt. He's terrible at keeping a team focused. Hence the leads they've blown in their games against Stanford, Pitt, Navy and Syracuse. So I hope they'll be able to close this game out. There should be enough pressure on them and they should be focused enough to get it done. But after last night I feel kind of snakebit. So I'm not taking any chances with this line.
We both had an odd feeling about the TCU/Boise game despite TCU's much better numbers. I should have gone with my first inclination about that game and taken TCU on the ML. But your going to get at least 2 or 3 games like this during bowl season. Probably the weiderst thing about the game was there was over 700 yards of total offense played and only 33 points to show for it. TCU definitely had their opportunities in that game. If they had a better QB they would have easily won by a couple TD's....I'm glad I didn't have a point spread to worry about last night. I think that was the first time that I've bet on Notre Dame all year.
Bowl plays:
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona ** (Loss)
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) ** (Win)
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno ** (Win)
Troy (-4) over Southern Miss ** (Loss)
TCU (-3) over Boise State ** (Loss)
Notre Dame (ML) over Hawaii ** (Win)
Wake Forest (-3) over Navy ** (Win)
BYU (+3) over Arizona ** (Loss)
Nebraska-Clemson (OVER 55.5) **
NCST-Rutgers (OVER 53) **
NCST (+9) over Rutgers **
Western Michigan (+3) over Rice **
Memphis-South Florida (OVER 53) ** (Win)
Colorado St. (+2.5) over Fresno ** (Win)
Troy (-4) over Southern Miss ** (Loss)
TCU (-3) over Boise State ** (Loss)
Notre Dame (ML) over Hawaii ** (Win)
Go Sooners, I wish you the happiest of holidays. I know how hard you work helping the guys here at the RX. We appreciate it. I don't live very far from you and hope someday we could go to lunch. My wife and I live out by Mercy hospital and I believe if I remember right you are up in Edmond. Again Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
BBB:anichamp4
BBB:anichamp4
Thanks Billy...And Happy Holidays to you and your family as well. One of these days I would like to get together with some of the Okies and others on the board. I hope to try and make it to the RX Bash this next year. My schedule has kept me from it the last couple years. But I'm going to try and make it a point to be there this next year.
I'm debating if I want to play tonight's game because of the suspensions to the FAU players. Especially the FAU offensive lineman, which can hurt the overall chemsitry on the offensive line if they don't have the players to back them up. I'm still looking at a few line movements. But I should have some plays up tonight for the tomorrow's games.
