Logical or not?
That's the problem with "back-fitting" games. You can always find stats and trends to support your pick. Tout services exploit this gimmick on a routine basis. There is usually no logic involved; i.e. Team A wins 90% ATS when the barometric pressure is between 30.10 and 30.30.
That's the problem with "back-fitting" games. You can always find stats and trends to support your pick. Tout services exploit this gimmick on a routine basis. There is usually no logic involved; i.e. Team A wins 90% ATS when the barometric pressure is between 30.10 and 30.30.
I've basically been waiting to see what the public does with this line...But I'm leaning on taking the under. TCU has a very good run defense allowing only 40 ypg on the ground..I realize they really haven't really played anybody..But there are things that lead me to believe they are the real deal on defense..Like for instance Stanford had 113 yards rushing on Arizona St. but they could manage only 71 on TCU. Or New Mexico who had 56 yards rushing on TCU, but 221 on Arizona. I look for TCU to at least try to make OU's offense one-demensional, and put the game more on Bradford's shoulders..And Gary Patterson is also known for throwing new defensive schemes at you that you haven't seen before..So we'll see a little of that too I'm sure. So TCU will try to take away OU's run game while trying to establish their's..Which could possibly make them the running dogs in this spot..Keep in mind that TCU is an excellent +8 in turnover margin already this season. And these kinds of teams scare me because they can make short fields for their offense to travel. So OU has to really take care of the ball against this team. I don't expect TCU to do just a whole lot offensively. But I do expect them to go over the top and pass a bit more in this game than they usually do to open up their ground game.
My numbers have Tulane winning by 25..SMU right now is a bad team. But the only problem I have with the game is Tulane has been a favorite in only 3 games in the last 3 years..And never by more than 5 points..So this big number will be a new role for them. Some teams handle the role well, and some don't. Also keep in mind that Tulane is favored by 18 and haven't scored more than 24 points on offense. Do you feel comfortable laying this many points? I don't. Things tend to tighten up and change when teams get into conference play. If SMU stops turning the ball over (-10 TO margin) they'll probably give somebody a good game. But I hate to predict when this will happen..So I'm going to be staying as far away from this game as I can.
Virginia Tech at Nebraska...This is kind of a hard game to cap because there are a few conflicting angles. At first glance it appears that VT should get the nod here because of the tougher schedule that they've faced. But the numbers kind of tell a different story. For one thing VT on defense is giving up more yards and points per game than they have in years past. And this is understandable with just 4 returning starters. And what is a little troublesome is that with the exception of maybe ECU who scored 27 points on them, I don't think they've played what I call a good or better than good offensive team yet. Neither North Carolina or Ga Tech are great offensive teams. Both of those teams average around 360 total ypg, whereas Nebraska is up there around 460 ypg. Granted that Nebraska's numbers would have gone down a little against better competetion. But against the same competetion that VT has faced, not that much. But the coup de grace for me here is the strong angles that favor Nebraska.
Nebraska has been in their "Comfort Zone" since August 30th. They haven't left home this season. Where VT has had to travel back and forth between conference games the last couple of weeks. And both games were very tough hard fought close games. They are now being asked to go on the road once again and travel farther than they've travelled in the last 22 years to play an ooc team. A Nebraska team who not only has been home for almost two months, but has had two weeks to prepare for this game. A big big advantage in my opinion. Don't underestimate this angle..I think teams who get to stay home for 3 and 4 weeks straight at a time are at an advantage on the point spread. Players can concentrate on studies and social activities without the back and forth rigors of travelling, which can also cut into quality practice time. Another angle here is this will be the signature game for Bo Pelini as a head coach. And everybody will finally be getting to see Nebraska for the first time this season in a prime time game. You can expect 100% effort from a well rested Nebraska team. I can give you a few more numbers that favor Nebraska in this spot. But I think you get the idea how I feel. The only thing that makes it a little iffy is I'm not sure how much difference VT QB Tyrod Taylor will make in this game. He is capable of making things happen. And Nebraska hasn't really seen a mobile QB this season. But like I said, the Huskers have had 2 weeks to prepare for this kid. And I think they'll slow him down at least as much or more than North Carolina did. I still feel like the final score could fall pretty close to the line. So I'm buying a half a point here and getting it off the hard 7...Taking Nebraska (-6.5) over Virginia Tech **
Nebraska has been in their "Comfort Zone" since August 30th. They haven't left home this season. Where VT has had to travel back and forth between conference games the last couple of weeks. And both games were very tough hard fought close games. They are now being asked to go on the road once again and travel farther than they've travelled in the last 22 years to play an ooc team. A Nebraska team who not only has been home for almost two months, but has had two weeks to prepare for this game. A big big advantage in my opinion. Don't underestimate this angle..I think teams who get to stay home for 3 and 4 weeks straight at a time are at an advantage on the point spread. Players can concentrate on studies and social activities without the back and forth rigors of travelling, which can also cut into quality practice time. Another angle here is this will be the signature game for Bo Pelini as a head coach. And everybody will finally be getting to see Nebraska for the first time this season in a prime time game. You can expect 100% effort from a well rested Nebraska team. I can give you a few more numbers that favor Nebraska in this spot. But I think you get the idea how I feel. The only thing that makes it a little iffy is I'm not sure how much difference VT QB Tyrod Taylor will make in this game. He is capable of making things happen. And Nebraska hasn't really seen a mobile QB this season. But like I said, the Huskers have had 2 weeks to prepare for this kid. And I think they'll slow him down at least as much or more than North Carolina did. I still feel like the final score could fall pretty close to the line. So I'm buying a half a point here and getting it off the hard 7...Taking Nebraska (-6.5) over Virginia Tech **
GS-
in their 3 fbs games vtech has been outgained in each...in fact their high offensive output is 268 last week!! i got a chance to watch their game @ unc last night and it's easy to see why-they have no real offensive flow or identity... their lone TD drive was aided by 35 yds in penalties and their next score was set up after a fumble recovery gave them possesion at the unc 20... if not for yates getting injured and 4 unc TO's this easily could have been a DD win for the tar heels.
i played this but i'm not as confident solely based on my limited knowledge of nebraska... but this could be one of those games where we're a little hesitant now but end up with a "rocking chair" game when it's all said and done
:toast:
in their 3 fbs games vtech has been outgained in each...in fact their high offensive output is 268 last week!! i got a chance to watch their game @ unc last night and it's easy to see why-they have no real offensive flow or identity... their lone TD drive was aided by 35 yds in penalties and their next score was set up after a fumble recovery gave them possesion at the unc 20... if not for yates getting injured and 4 unc TO's this easily could have been a DD win for the tar heels.
i played this but i'm not as confident solely based on my limited knowledge of nebraska... but this could be one of those games where we're a little hesitant now but end up with a "rocking chair" game when it's all said and done
:toast:
Trent...We'll get a better idea about Nebraska's defense after this game..My knowledge is as limited as your on this nebraska team because I haven't got to watch them this year..It is the only thing that makes the play a little iffy...VT still has a good OL and RB's. So that is one half of being a good running dog..But I actually question VT's defense. I think Nebraska will be able to move the ball on this team better than VT's last two opponents did. Nebraska's offensive numbers would be even better than they are if they hadn't had so many penalties this year..They had over 100 yards in pnealites against San Jose. And this comes out to alot of plays and yards being called back. They appear to be improving in that department. And with 2 weeks off these things tend to get ironed out under a good coaching staff. Plus the Huskers last game with NMST wasn't even as close as the score. Nebraska missed several scoring opportunities in that game or they probably would have scored 50. And then we might have been seeing a 7.5 or 8 point line instead of a 7.
I've been to every Nebraska game this year and their defense is better but still not great. Western Michigan moved the ball especially in the 2nd half pretty easily on them, but it was the first game and emotions started to wear off (new coaching staff, first game of the year, etc).
That said, the defense has gotten better every game so far with their most complete defensive game last week against a pretty decent New Mexico State spread offense and NFL possible QB.
VaTech will be their first game against a more traditional style offense and Nebraska is excited to run their first true 4-3 defense against them. While they are better on defense, they still aren't great but play with much more enthusiam and much, much more attacking and gambling. Against a spread offense, there is a chance of getting burned higher than a team that likes to pound it like VaTech.
If I were betting on this game, I would take Nebraska but I see a possibly low scoring game so that 7 is a slightly big number. GL
Colorado at Florida State...Colorado is coming off a huge non conference win over WV, and FSU is coming off a disappointing national television debut against Wake. So the question is can FSU bounce back from that crappy performance. I'm not going to kid you, I've gone back and forth on this game this week. There are legitimate arguments for both teams..FSU will more than likely look a little sharper on offense than they did last week..It couldn't have been any worse a start for this team with 7 turnovers and 139 yards in penalties. And although their offense looked like shit, their defense really impressed me in giving up only 275 total yards after their offense turned it over what seemed like every series. So I have no problem with FSU on that side of the ball. And they'll also be getting a few Criminoles off of a 3 games suspension for this game. Which could help the general attitude of the team.. But the problem I have with this game is the line. FSU started the season out scoring 115 points against 2 Sisters Of The Poor schools. But managed just one field goal against Wake..And really didn't get any kind of sniff of the endzone all night..They played 2 QB's and still had no success in any phase of the game. They have no passing game (5 int's last week). Colorado on the other hand held a WV team with a better QB to under 50 yards passing..So how much better is this FSU team going to fare? I would say not much more if any..I look for FSU to keep it on the gound more this week to cut down on mistakes. And I'm sure they'll move the ball on Colorado. But getting it in the endzone is another thing. I won't kid you, it does bother me a little that Colorado is leaving home for the first time. But I really don't expect any kind of letdown from the Buffs, even though they have Texas on board next week. This is a team who is 3-0, and has a chance to knock off WV and FSU back to back and get themselves in the top 25 for the first time. Plus a 4-0 start is cruicial for the Buffs before entering the rugged Big 12 where they'll have to play Texas, at Kansas, at Mizzou, OSU, at Texas A&M and at Nebraska. So Hawkins probably knows that the more wins they can get early the better chance to get to a bowl. If Cody Hawkins can cut down on mistakes by this hard hitting FSU defense and not give them any easy scores, I think Colorado can hang here. With the total at around 40, this has to tell you a low scoring field goal fest is probably expected. And if it's a low scoring FG fest I prefer to be getting the two field goals....Takling Colorado (+6) over Florida State **
USC at Oregon State...The number 1 team is playing two weeks in a row in prime time..So can they repeat what they did last week? Well I think they'll get a win. But asking for a cover off of a home dog on a Thursday night ESPN game might be stretching it a little. And believe me, this angle alone has paid dividends for me the last few years..In 2006 I'm not sure an ESPN home dog failed to cover. So this is a strong trend or angle. OSU has already gotten embarassed once on national television by Penn State. So their going to be looking for a little redemption here. Plus USC always seems to have one or two letdown games every year. But I don't have to tell you that. I would be surprised if there isn't at least some kind of letdown for this game after winning the biggest game of the season last week. And USC might actually be playing the best offense that they've faced so far. At least OSU seems to have gotten things straightened out on offense. More than I can say for Virginia or Ohio State.. And QB Moevao appears to also be on the improve after a shaky start to the season. USC has traditionally been terrible double digit road chalk over the last few years. And this looks like a good spot where this could continue. Plus Oregon State is is 9-2 ATS when coming off a bye week. And Riley always has this OSU team ready when USC or any top 10 team comes to town. The last 3 times that USC came to Corvallis they were 6, 10 and 18 point favorites..USC not only didn't cover those games, they lost two of them outright. And now it's 25. I like that OSU is coming off a decisive win over Hawaii and now has had two more weeks off to tighten up their offense and prepare for USC, who doesn't get a bye week here. Plus these teams are going into conference play now. And as we all know, this can be a whole new ballgame..I expect things to tighten up considerably for USC. Especially when they go on the road. The element of fear simply isn't there when these teams play USC every year. And OSU has certainly showed that they don't care what USC has done..I expect Riley to have his troops ready to give the Trojans a good game. And USC is due for a little bit of a fall. I'm looking for a 35-17 type of game..Taking Oregon State (+25) over USC **
