I understand what your saying. But I've watched this Colorado team for the last few weeks..And they look thoroughly confused on offense. And I'm not sure their defense alone can get it done against an A&M team who is starting to get things together on offense.. As for LSU-Tulane, I've seen a few that are on Tulane. But this is another case where I think something isn't right with Tulane..By all rights they should have beaten or at the very least stayed close to Rice last week. And they couldn't get it done..I think injuries have taken their toll on this team. They've dropped their last 3 games.
Army-Air Force (OVER 40) **
We have two option offenses. In the last 5 games Air Force has averaged scoring 28 points a game. And Army has averaged scoring 23. In the last 5 years Air Force has averaged scoring 32 points a game against Army. And Army has averaged 14. In both scenerios it comes out to the Over 40. Under a new coaching staff, Army is finding the endzone more this season than in previous seasons... And as a young team they are really starting to come together. Army has been good on defense. But much of their success has come against some very inept offenses. The only good offense they played in the last month was Buffalo. And they scored 27 on Army. I expect AF to do about the same..AF has already played one option attack this year when playing Navy..AF gave up 33 points at home to Navy in that game. I expect them to give up at least 17 to 21 here on the road..But at any rate, when the total is set below 45, it doesn't always take both teams scoring to reach that total..As a rule, the over is usually a good play with these two teams. And I feel like it's set too low this year..Taking the Over 40...
We have two option offenses. In the last 5 games Air Force has averaged scoring 28 points a game. And Army has averaged scoring 23. In the last 5 years Air Force has averaged scoring 32 points a game against Army. And Army has averaged 14. In both scenerios it comes out to the Over 40. Under a new coaching staff, Army is finding the endzone more this season than in previous seasons... And as a young team they are really starting to come together. Army has been good on defense. But much of their success has come against some very inept offenses. The only good offense they played in the last month was Buffalo. And they scored 27 on Army. I expect AF to do about the same..AF has already played one option attack this year when playing Navy..AF gave up 33 points at home to Navy in that game. I expect them to give up at least 17 to 21 here on the road..But at any rate, when the total is set below 45, it doesn't always take both teams scoring to reach that total..As a rule, the over is usually a good play with these two teams. And I feel like it's set too low this year..Taking the Over 40...
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For what it's worth, i have Texas A&M rated 11 points stronger on a neutral field than Colorado. So, at home this looks like a strong value play. A good portion of the time, my ratings project value on the side opposite of what most other people believe is the correct side. This is simply not one of those cases, and i could give two shits about which side the public is on. At the end of the day, it is my power ratings vs. the Vegas oddsmaker power ratings. All this bullshit about trap lines and everyone is on this side so it can't be right is pure garbage. Don't worry about it. If you like a line, take it and stop getting spooked about "traps". Traps don't exist. All the oddsmaker is doing is taking the differential in their power ratings between two teams and putting a line out there. They don't sit around and think of sinister things and decide how to screw everyone over. They have so many sports to track that they simply don't have the time to mess with all this nonsense.
The particular line is just wrong. Vegas oddsmakers are often times very slow to move their ratings to account for what is happening on the field. In the NFL, i believe they are correct to do that because the talent level is pretty well balanced across the board. Once you reach the professional level, you don't get much worse or much better from week to week, and most blowouts are flukes. In college, you have to be able to make drastic changes to your ratings quickly to be accurate. At the beginning of the season, i'm sure they had Colorado rated ahead of A&M. But they clearly don't have Texas A&M rated properly and are not adjusting quickly enough to the terriffic job that Coach Sherman is doing here. A&M has been a covering machine lately and Colorado is a complete bust.
The particular line is just wrong. Vegas oddsmakers are often times very slow to move their ratings to account for what is happening on the field. In the NFL, i believe they are correct to do that because the talent level is pretty well balanced across the board. Once you reach the professional level, you don't get much worse or much better from week to week, and most blowouts are flukes. In college, you have to be able to make drastic changes to your ratings quickly to be accurate. At the beginning of the season, i'm sure they had Colorado rated ahead of A&M. But they clearly don't have Texas A&M rated properly and are not adjusting quickly enough to the terriffic job that Coach Sherman is doing here. A&M has been a covering machine lately and Colorado is a complete bust.
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CU has lost around 5 OL, 3 starters and 2 backups, their QB is not playing well, and they have been rotating Hawkins with a True Freshman QB.
Darrel Scott the Freshman beast has been hurt all year, and A&M is getting better and better. They looked terrible early in the year, but Sherman is getting them back to good football.
Darrel Scott the Freshman beast has been hurt all year, and A&M is getting better and better. They looked terrible early in the year, but Sherman is getting them back to good football.
ND and Murphy....For what it's worth, my power ratings have Texas A&M winning by 8. And what makes this rating a solid 8 is the way these two teams are playing at the moment. They look like two ships passing in the night..Texas A&M is starting to pick it up, and Colorado looks like their trip is over. My mind was made up and this game was capped well before the tout services or public was on it..In all honesty, although it bothers me when everybody is on the same side, how could anybody possibly back a Colorado team who is totally lost offensively? And it's not like this is an outright public play like Oregon State is this week..It's only gone up 1 point from the original line..So somebody is playing Colorado.
not to be an ass but why is everyone in love w/ dr. bob
i heard he lost his ass last year! i know he has had some really good years, but who hasnt had their ups and downs! i guarantee everyone on this forum that i am hotter this year then dr. bob has ever been! but i know reality is coming in just a matter of time! i love texas tech tom.
everyone has giving me grief on here but it wouldnt surprise me if they win the game convincely! i am not so sure they whole big 12 isnt a little overrated this year! texas beat ou.... well ou only beat my hawks by 2 td at home and this ku team is 3 tds worse than last year! osu has one quality win and it was vs. missouri. missouri is a joke! that win doesnt look that good anymore! texas only beat osu by 4!
i think tech is gona prove they are the best team in texas! then ou will dominate them in norman as usual!
i thought i would never say that in my life!
i heard he lost his ass last year! i know he has had some really good years, but who hasnt had their ups and downs! i guarantee everyone on this forum that i am hotter this year then dr. bob has ever been! but i know reality is coming in just a matter of time! i love texas tech tom.
everyone has giving me grief on here but it wouldnt surprise me if they win the game convincely! i am not so sure they whole big 12 isnt a little overrated this year! texas beat ou.... well ou only beat my hawks by 2 td at home and this ku team is 3 tds worse than last year! osu has one quality win and it was vs. missouri. missouri is a joke! that win doesnt look that good anymore! texas only beat osu by 4!
i think tech is gona prove they are the best team in texas! then ou will dominate them in norman as usual!
i thought i would never say that in my life!
Exactly, and they are moving their numbers on these teams about as fast as they will ever do. Last week Colo was a "12" and A&M was a "22" (lower is better). This week, Colo is up to 17 and A&M is down to 18, hence the opening number around 2 (CU one point better, with A&M getting 3 points for HFA).
In other words, Colorado would have been favored by 7 in CS if this game had been played last Saturday. Hard to believe, and now the oddsmakers are trying to catch up, but they're not quite there yet the way most of us see things.
Rowdy...I hope you have a great time..I've been to plenty of OU-Neb games in the past. And have gotten to meet and sit next to a lot of Husker fans..And I can say without a doubt that Nebrakska has by far the best fans in the country. And it's not even close for second. I've always considered Nebraska-OU to be the Sooners number one rivalry game over Texas. These teams were mirror images of each other for many years, and they played some of the most memorable games that I've ever seen. The 1971 Game Of The Century comes to mind first..And I'll think you'll enjoy the halftime ceremony for the game which will introduce the players from that 71 game..It should be fun.
My numbers for this game were so close to the line that I decided not to play it. If I had to play it I would probably go with Kansas State. Mainly because their starting to find a little bit of a running game. And Kansas has been struggling a little running the ball. But I just hate betting on a Ron Prince coached team. I think this guy is the worst by far in the Big 12.
Plays so far:
South Florida (-2.5) over Cincy ** (Loss)
Texas A&M (-3) over Colorado **
OU (-22) over Nebraska **
OSU (-30.5) over Iowa State **
Iowa (+3) over Illinois **
Temple-Navy (UNDER 45) **
Kentucky (+2.5) over Miss. State **
Texas-Texas Tech (UNDER 75.5) **
Utah State (+7) over Hawaii **
LSU (-26.5) over Tulane **
Army-Air Force (OVER 40) **
South Florida (-2.5) over Cincy ** (Loss)
Texas A&M (-3) over Colorado **
OU (-22) over Nebraska **
OSU (-30.5) over Iowa State **
Iowa (+3) over Illinois **
Temple-Navy (UNDER 45) **
Kentucky (+2.5) over Miss. State **
Texas-Texas Tech (UNDER 75.5) **
Utah State (+7) over Hawaii **
LSU (-26.5) over Tulane **
Army-Air Force (OVER 40) **
I'll vouch for that. Nebraksa fans on a whole are class acts. They support their team passionately, but they're friendly and polite fo visiting fans. They're the polar opposite of Ohio State fans, which get my vote for the most classless, ugliest-acting around. The state of Ohio and the university ought to be ashamed of the way so many of their fans behave.
While wearing a Texas shirt I've had beers bought for me by Husker backers, and I felt happy to return the favor and send a round their way later. I felt lucky not to get shanked in OSU crowds.
The worst fans that I've ever seen are Oklahoma State fans. Their fairly quite when they visit Norman because they know their fixin to get an ass whoppin..But everytime I go to Stillwater I'm never able to leave that place without some tobacco chewin' redneck OSU fan talking shit all the way to the parking lots. And this is after they lose. I hate to see what they di when they win.. I had the privelege of being invited by a friend to the clubhouse of Boone Pickens stadium for a game. An OU game was being televised in the clubhouse before the game started. And you wouldn't believe how these people cheer against OU. I don't care who their playing. They absolutely hate the Sooners and their fans with a passion.. That's why it's tough this year. Because OSU has a hell of a team that is better than OU right now. And the Sooners have to go to Stillwater..They could give me a free $200 seat in the clubhouse and I still wouldn't go to that game.
I would go with OSU. Call me crazy, but I think this game will be OSU's biggest beatdown of the season coming off that close loss to Texas... Many people are still not aware just how good this OSU team is. Last week wasn't a fluke..I expect OSU to score in the 50's or 60's in this game.IF You had to put a top 3 with the picks you have so far what would it Be ? Thanx and GL
