The running dogs are the teams who are both able to run the best and able to stop the run the best. In other words the probable running dogs are the ones we expect to outrush their opponet and control the tempo of the game. Take a look in Sunday's paper and look at the box results for the Saturday games. The great majority of the teams who win or cover in their games will also own or come close to having the better rushing stats. I'll be honest with you, the running dogs work much better in the first couple months of the season than they do in November. In November the cream always rises to the top. And many teams who were better running teams at the beginning of the year start getting overtaken by the cream of the crop (the better teams). But during bowl season the running dogs are gold, because most of the time this is the only way to distinguish the true strength of a team when teams from opposing conferences meet. The general rule of thumb I use in November games is "take the team you think is going to win, not the team you think is just going to cover". There are exceptions, but most of the better teams who are on a roll are going to win AND cover in November.
I really think the big favorites like LSU and OSU have an excellent chance to cover this weekend. I always look for very good offensive teams coming off a loss. The coaches usually ride them hard the next week and they bounce back big. And I see no problems with OSU or LSU to make me think they won't win big over a couple struggling teams.
Duke (+8) over Wake Forest **
Duke is living up to it's full potential. When was the last time you saw this team with a winning record 7 games into the season? Wake on the other hand looks like they are on a downhill slide. Since their national television game at the beginning of the season in which they beat a FSU team 12-7, a team that really hadn't got themselves together offensively, this team has not had a significant win. Unless you want to call a now coachless 3-4 Clemson team significant. Wake hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game since Sept.6. And that 17 points came against a weak Navy defense. Otherwise they've only score 12, 12, 0 & 10 in their last 4 games. Now their favored by 8? It's obvious that this team is offensively lost. And with Jim Grobe's misdirection type of offense, there's no in-between with this team. Either their clicking or their not. And at the moment their not. And if your waiting for something to happen and for things to get better, you may be losing out on some good play against bets. I don't think it's going to happen. Duke on the other hand is on the rise. They just came off a big upset win on the road against a Vandy team of similar strength to Wake. Now their going to Wake Forest, where inferior Duke teams have given Wake fits over the last few years. Duke looks like a motivated team who has a good chance to go to a bowl. Wake at the moment does not. The QB edge clearly goes to Duke QB Lewis, who is number 2 in passing in the ACC. And he's played mistake free football. A big key in defeating this Wake team at home. And I think they will. I look for an outright upset here..Two 4-3 teams going different directions..Taking Duke.
Duke is living up to it's full potential. When was the last time you saw this team with a winning record 7 games into the season? Wake on the other hand looks like they are on a downhill slide. Since their national television game at the beginning of the season in which they beat a FSU team 12-7, a team that really hadn't got themselves together offensively, this team has not had a significant win. Unless you want to call a now coachless 3-4 Clemson team significant. Wake hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game since Sept.6. And that 17 points came against a weak Navy defense. Otherwise they've only score 12, 12, 0 & 10 in their last 4 games. Now their favored by 8? It's obvious that this team is offensively lost. And with Jim Grobe's misdirection type of offense, there's no in-between with this team. Either their clicking or their not. And at the moment their not. And if your waiting for something to happen and for things to get better, you may be losing out on some good play against bets. I don't think it's going to happen. Duke on the other hand is on the rise. They just came off a big upset win on the road against a Vandy team of similar strength to Wake. Now their going to Wake Forest, where inferior Duke teams have given Wake fits over the last few years. Duke looks like a motivated team who has a good chance to go to a bowl. Wake at the moment does not. The QB edge clearly goes to Duke QB Lewis, who is number 2 in passing in the ACC. And he's played mistake free football. A big key in defeating this Wake team at home. And I think they will. I look for an outright upset here..Two 4-3 teams going different directions..Taking Duke.
South Florida (-2.5) over Cincy ** (Loss)
Texas A&M (-3) over Colorado **
OU (-22) over Nebraska **
OSU (-30.5) over Iowa State **
Iowa (+3) over Illinois **
Temple-Navy (UNDER 45) **
Kentucky (+2.5) over Miss. State **
Texas-Texas Tech (UNDER 75.5) **
Utah State (+7) over Hawaii **
LSU (-26.5) over Tulane **
Army-Air Force (OVER 40) **
Duke (+8) over Wake Forest **
Texas A&M (-3) over Colorado **
OU (-22) over Nebraska **
OSU (-30.5) over Iowa State **
Iowa (+3) over Illinois **
Temple-Navy (UNDER 45) **
Kentucky (+2.5) over Miss. State **
Texas-Texas Tech (UNDER 75.5) **
Utah State (+7) over Hawaii **
LSU (-26.5) over Tulane **
Army-Air Force (OVER 40) **
Duke (+8) over Wake Forest **
Delta....The OU-Neb play is probably my weakest play. It may be asking too much for OU's sputtering defense to hold down Nebraska enough to cover this spread..Word I'm hearing out of Norman is OU is going to buckle down and concentrate on playing defense in this game. So we'll see....With OU trying to establish their running game again, I look for the game to be a little lower scoring than OU's last few games..BOL this weekend.
Great card this week bro. Nebraska will try to chew up as much clock as possible to keep the Sooners offense off the field, however I don't think they will have as much success as they have the last couple weeks and although the husker D is playing much better Oklahoma should have no problem scoring at will. It's a no play for me although I think Oklahoma is the pick here. Good luck!
Thanks for the nice comments on Nebraska fans guys, we take pride in being classy fans regardless of how good or bad we are and where we're playing. I'd agree that Ohio State fans are worthless. I was at the Fiesta Bowl when they beat Miami for the title, what a bunch of scum bags, completely rude and they acted like they've never won before. I realize it was 40 + years since they had won a title, but give me a break, no need to act like that..Mizzou fans are a bunch of tools as well, think they are hot shit because they've had some small success the last few years. If you want respect, act like you've been there before.
GL to everyone today!
GL to everyone today!
Ole Miss (-6.5) over Auburn **
Ole Miss is having an excellent year under first year coach Houston Nutt. I had them pegged for a 6 win season at the beginning of the year. And I believe if they can win this game, they can and will make it to 6 wins this year. Ole Miss has improved on both sides of the ball. Especially on offense where they have 4 RB's who are averaging over 4 ypc. Pretty good for facing some of the tougher SEC defenses. It all comes down to run blocking. And Houston Nutt can coach it up as good or better than any coach in the country. Auburn on the other hand looks like a team that is completely lost on offense. They can't decide whether they want to be a power running team, or a spread offense passing team from week to week. And getting rid of your OC in the middle of the season is NEVER a good sign for things to come the rest of the year. After the West Virginia fiasco, it's apparent that this is a team in turmoil, and won't get things straightened out this year. And what is adding to their problems is now the injuries their having on defense with their secondary and LB corps. On the other side of the ball with Kodi Burns under center, this Auburn team lacks the passing attack that they did under a now hurt Chris Todd. And because of this they can't exploit the weakest part of the Ole Miss defense, which is the secondary. And AU will be trying to run into the Ole miss defensive front which is the strength of this defense in giving up just 116 ypg rushing. What it comes down to is whether you think Auburn can trade points with Ole Miss. Auburn couldn't trade with another running team WV a week ago, and ended up losing by 17. I think we're going to see the same thing happen here against a Ole Miss team who not only can run the ball well, their WR corps is starting to come on strong. I don't think Auburn can trade scores with Ole Miss for a full game. I liked this line better earlier in the week before Dr. Bob got a hold of it. But I'm still going to play it at under a TD. Taking the team on the way up over the team on their way down.
Ole Miss is having an excellent year under first year coach Houston Nutt. I had them pegged for a 6 win season at the beginning of the year. And I believe if they can win this game, they can and will make it to 6 wins this year. Ole Miss has improved on both sides of the ball. Especially on offense where they have 4 RB's who are averaging over 4 ypc. Pretty good for facing some of the tougher SEC defenses. It all comes down to run blocking. And Houston Nutt can coach it up as good or better than any coach in the country. Auburn on the other hand looks like a team that is completely lost on offense. They can't decide whether they want to be a power running team, or a spread offense passing team from week to week. And getting rid of your OC in the middle of the season is NEVER a good sign for things to come the rest of the year. After the West Virginia fiasco, it's apparent that this is a team in turmoil, and won't get things straightened out this year. And what is adding to their problems is now the injuries their having on defense with their secondary and LB corps. On the other side of the ball with Kodi Burns under center, this Auburn team lacks the passing attack that they did under a now hurt Chris Todd. And because of this they can't exploit the weakest part of the Ole Miss defense, which is the secondary. And AU will be trying to run into the Ole miss defensive front which is the strength of this defense in giving up just 116 ypg rushing. What it comes down to is whether you think Auburn can trade points with Ole Miss. Auburn couldn't trade with another running team WV a week ago, and ended up losing by 17. I think we're going to see the same thing happen here against a Ole Miss team who not only can run the ball well, their WR corps is starting to come on strong. I don't think Auburn can trade scores with Ole Miss for a full game. I liked this line better earlier in the week before Dr. Bob got a hold of it. But I'm still going to play it at under a TD. Taking the team on the way up over the team on their way down.
South Florida (-2.5) over Cincy ** (Loss)
Texas A&M (-3) over Colorado **
OU (-22) over Nebraska **
OSU (-30.5) over Iowa State **
Iowa (+3) over Illinois **
Temple-Navy (UNDER 45) **
Kentucky (+2.5) over Miss. State **
Texas-Texas Tech (UNDER 75.5) **
Utah State (+7) over Hawaii **
LSU (-26.5) over Tulane **
Army-Air Force (OVER 40) **
Duke (+8) over Wake Forest **
Ole Miss (-6.5) over Auburn **
Texas A&M (-3) over Colorado **
OU (-22) over Nebraska **
OSU (-30.5) over Iowa State **
Iowa (+3) over Illinois **
Temple-Navy (UNDER 45) **
Kentucky (+2.5) over Miss. State **
Texas-Texas Tech (UNDER 75.5) **
Utah State (+7) over Hawaii **
LSU (-26.5) over Tulane **
Army-Air Force (OVER 40) **
Duke (+8) over Wake Forest **
Ole Miss (-6.5) over Auburn **
