GoSooners Big 12 Plays Of The Week For 11-1

jblonghorn · Oct 29, 2008

GoSooners said:
Do you know this for a fact as a qualification for Big 12 Championship game, because I really haven't heard anything on this subject. In that case the only two teams out of this bunch who probably control their own desitiny is Texas and Texas Tech. As far as BCS standings go, it's still a little tricky if all of these teams start beating up on each other..If Tech beats Texas, but loses to OU will they then be rated below Texas? If Texas loses and OSU wins out over Texas Tech and OU will they be rated higher than Texas? I think this is the million dollar question..In many people's minds OSU could have won that game at Texas, and probably think they could beat them on a neutral field. So OSU could get the nod in the voting if it comes down to that.

He's correct. Believe me, us Longhorns have had to have this discussion year after year; about "how can we get into the Big 12 Championship game", due to our losing ways in the Big 12. But he is correct. The highest ranked team (south) will get into the Big 12 Championship IF all teams have 1 loss and Tech beats Texas and OSU beats Tech. I personally believe VERY STRONGLY that Tech will lose AT LEAST 2 out of their next 3, and they could very well lose all 3. Tech hasn't played anyone worth a squat yet this year, and they're about to get hit in the mouth HARD by 3 very good teams. They aren't physically made up right to go through the schedule they're about to have play, much less have enough talent on the 2 deep to survive these next 3 teams. I've sat in the stands and watched each of these 3 teams (OSU, OU, Texas) the last 3 weeks, and I firmly believe each of them can play with any team in the country right now. OSU is stout. Just my 2 cents.

And I do believe that sooner (no pun intended) or later, Texas and OU will meet again in a given season, but in the Nat'l Championship game. God that will be fun.

soonerfanjames · Oct 29, 2008

GoSooners said:
Do you know this for a fact as a qualification for Big 12 Championship game, because I really haven't heard anything on this subject. In that case the only two teams out of this bunch who probably control their own desitiny is Texas and Texas Tech. As far as BCS standings go, it's still a little tricky if all of these teams start beating up on each other..If Tech beats Texas, but loses to OU will they then be rated below Texas? If Texas loses and OSU wins out over Texas Tech and OU will they be rated higher than Texas? I think this is the million dollar question..In many people's minds OSU could have won that game at Texas, and probably think they could beat them on a neutral field. So OSU could get the nod in the voting if it comes down to that.

If tech beats UT and Loses to OU-- OU ranked higher..

Ou Plays OSU --OU will be ranked higher if they win.

GoSooners · Oct 29, 2008

Boxslayer said:
I agree with all of that.

I see some ping pong happening. I have seen Tech play a lot of games this year and I think they look like they are for real and I always come away impressed with them.

I think Tech's defense is underrated. People think their defense is horrible and I think it is a decent unit - certainly not world beaters. But good enough to keep them in a game like this and make a handful of stops, which is all they may need. Tech's defense is holding OPP to 19 PPG at home.

The main factor I am trying to figure out is this: Tech's offense #2 in the country for least sacks given up, while the strength of the Longhorns is their pass rush #2 sacking the QB. What gives here is the answer to the game. Harrell hasn't been touched this year, he has all day in the pocket in some games, and if he is allowed to do that in this game, Tech may blow Texas right out of this game. If Harrell is getting flustered, getting hit often, and is on his back, Tech's offense will sputter big time and Texas will blow Tech out.

I really don't see a close game here either way unless the pressure on Harrell is very inconsistent because I think both teams are going to see something they havnt seen yet this year - for Tech they may see a pass rush that throws their whole offense out of rhythm. Texas may see an near unstoppable offense and a ridiculous environment against them - the likes of which they havnt seen this year either.

I agree that momentum could take over and make this game get a little out of hand. I'm also considering taking the over play, as high as it is. These two teams combined for 102 points last year. So 75 is definitely reachable if we can get a big momentum swing to one team. Like say a 45-31 type of game. It's going to be very hard for Texas to keep TT out of the 30's here, whether it's a blowout or not...And vice versa. Something that helps Harrell in not getting sacked this year is quick passes and experienced physical receivers who can get open. So much of Harrell's success is going to be if Crabtree and company can shake off some of those redshirt freshman defensive backs. And I think he can just like OU and their talented receivers did. If OU can score 35 on this defense, I'm convinced TT can do it too on their home field.

jblonghorn · Oct 29, 2008

Boxslayer said:
I agree with all of that.

I see some ping pong happening. I have seen Tech play a lot of games this year and I think they look like they are for real and I always come away impressed with them.

I think Tech's defense is underrated. People think their defense is horrible and I think it is a decent unit - certainly not world beaters. But good enough to keep them in a game like this and make a handful of stops, which is all they may need. Tech's defense is holding OPP to 19 PPG at home.

The main factor I am trying to figure out is this: Tech's offense #2 in the country for least sacks given up, while the strength of the Longhorns is their pass rush #2 sacking the QB. What gives here is the answer to the game. Harrell hasn't been touched this year, he has all day in the pocket in some games, and if he is allowed to do that in this game, Tech may blow Texas right out of this game. If Harrell is getting flustered, getting hit often, and is on his back, Tech's offense will sputter big time and Texas will blow Tech out.

I really don't see a close game here either way unless the pressure on Harrell is very inconsistent because I think both teams are going to see something they havnt seen yet this year - for Tech they may see a pass rush that throws their whole offense out of rhythm. Texas may see an near unstoppable offense and a ridiculous environment against them - the likes of which they havnt seen this year either.

Let me give you my 2 cents on this game too. Muschamp's 1st coaching job was at the same school where Leach's offensive system was invented (sorry but I can't think of the name of the school, it's SMALL). Muschamp had to look at the system that Leach now runs day in and day out for 2 years. Thus you saw his answer to this offense against Mizzou. Muschamp showed 2 weeks ago what he can do against these offenses that Tech and Mizzouri roll out on the field. And his answer to these offenses is to roll the Defensive End into the tackle position and turn 'em loose (along with some other small nuances). With the huge O-line splits, it's physically impossible for the offensive linemen to block these truly faster defensive ends, thus creating havoc for Daniel, and hopefully Harrell. No matter how bad UT's secondary is (and you can't look too much at last weekend's Ok St game, because Chykie Brown, our #1 corner was out, and he's back at 100% now), it won't matter because Muschamp WILL NOT let Harrell sit back and have time. No matter what. Texas' true freshman safeties are growing up before our eyes each week, thus making the secondary that much better each week. I will tell you that the Red Raiders and Lubbock hate Texas and Texas fans with a passion, and that stadium and town wil be rocking unlike anything that town has ever seen before, EVER. This is also Tech's chance to win their 500th game in the program's history. Texas will be walking into a stadium that wants their blood. That to me is the only part that makes me nervous about the game. Believe it or not Texas is an extremely young team, and they might come out a little shellshocked at what they're seeing around them. However, Brown's record in true road games is absolutely astounding, as I believe it's the best in the country the last 4 or 5 years. Whatever he does, he has his guys focused and ready to play each and every road game. Every person in the Texas football program knows this is the final game in a stretch that has never been seen in modern day college football, and they have a chance to come out of it 4-0. In the end I believe this is the same outcome as the Missouri game. It's setting up eerily similar, as GoSooners stated above. Texas 48 Tech 24. GL all this weekend.

Boxslayer · Oct 29, 2008

good stuff there JB.

also remember one of the most successful defenses against Florida's spread was an Auburn coached Muschamp defense. He had that defense ready to blitz Tebow last year and Florida couldnt mount any offense on the road to an upset loss at the Swamp when UF was ranked and Auburn was unranked.

jblonghorn · Oct 29, 2008

GoSooners said:
I agree that momentum could take over and make this game get a little out of hand. I'm also considering taking the over play, as high as it is. These two teams combined for 102 points last year. So 75 is definitely reachable if we can get a big momentum swing to one team. Like say a 45-31 type of game. It's going to be very hard for Texas to keep TT out of the 30's here, whether it's a blowout or not...And vice versa. Something that helps Harrell in not getting sacked this year is quick passes and experienced physical receivers who can get open. So much of Harrell's success is going to be if Crabtree and company can shake off some of those redshirt freshman defensive backs. And I think he can just like OU and their talented receivers did. If OU can score 35 on this defense, I'm convinced TT can do it too on their home field.

OU's offense is MUCH more balanced than Tech's, which I'm sure you know. Balanced offenses give Texas MANY more fits than the Missouris and Techs of the world. Ok State had an extremely balanced offense, and they gave Texas fits. I think this fits my argument perfectly re; how the Texas defense is getting better week after week. Had Texas played Oklahoma State the week they played OU, I believe Texas would've lost because they simply wouldn't have been ready for such a great offense. Oklahoma State's offense I believe is one of the 3 best offenses in the country (not to take anything away from OU, but I believe OSU's offense is better). A side note: Missouri had a 1st team All Big 12 tight end that Texas had to cover, and Tech uses tight ends extremely rarely. That gives Muschamp one more person to turn loose after Harrell. GL.

GoSooners · Oct 30, 2008

This should be a concern if your on Texas:

Tuesday, October 28, 2008<MCC STORY>
AUSTIN, Texas — Texas defensive tackle Roy Miller said he felt "relieved" after a tough win against Oklahoma State. Quarterback Colt McCoy's left hand — he throws right — was bruised and scratched.
As a group, the Longhorns' defensive backs are nicked up and sore.
  


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After three consecutive wins against teams ranked 11th or higher and another big game coming at No. 6 Texas Tech, the top-ranked Longhorns are finding it harder to stay healthy and sharp in the middle of a brutal schedule.
The tough games mean extra time in the training room getting treatment for those bumps and bruises and grabbing a few extra minutes of sleep at night.
It's about this time in the season when a lot of teams start feeling weary, coach Mack Brown said Monday.
"We're telling our guys to get in bed, get off your feet ... we're trying our best to make sure they can handle this stretch physically and emotionally," Brown said. "These kids are enjoying playing and what they've accomplished and they're having fun. That really helps."
Texas (8-0) has little time to rest. Come Saturday night, the defense will be running all over the field chasing Tech's tricky offense. The Red Raiders (8-0) keep teams on edge mentally and physically with a passing scheme that can score on any play.
The Longhorns say they will be ready.
"Everybody is good, rehabbing right now, icing their bodies and ready to go," defensive end Brian Orakpo said. "We know how big of a game it's going to be."
McCoy, who set a school record last week with 38 completions, is returning to the site of one of his biggest wins. In 2006, Tech jumped to a 21-0 lead before McCoy, then a freshman, helped Texas rally to a 35-31 win with four touchdown passes.
McCoy said the scratches on his nonthrowing hand came during the game against Oklahoma State and won't be a problem against Texas Tech. He didn't have the hand wrapped when he met with reporters Monday.
Against Oklahoma State, Texas had its worst tackling game of the season with 12 missed tackles that led to 125 yards. The Cowboys pounded out 217 yards on the ground, and Texas defenders bounced off big tight end Brandon Pettigrew all game.
Tackling will be a premium against the Red Raiders, who like to get the ball to receivers in space looking for one-on-one matchups.
"Miss a tackle against Tech and it could cost you 15, 20 or 30 yards every time," linebacker Roddrick Muckelroy said.
It would seem to be a week where the Longhorns would do extra tackling drills in practice, but defensive coordinator Will Muschamp said they have to be careful about avoiding injury.
The secondary will be put to the ultimate test at a time when some players already are hobbling. Cornerback Ryan Palmer has struggled with a sore elbow but played against Oklahoma State. Cornerback Chykie Brown sat out the last game with a sore ankle.
Chykie Brown's injury forced Texas to start Curtis Brown, who is finally recovered from a preseason hamstring pull. Although the Longhorns hope Chykie Brown returns this week, Curtis Brown played well against Oklahoma State and adds depth where it's needed most.
The last time Texas lost in Lubbock, in 2002, the Red Raiders' speedy receivers picked apart a secondary riddled by injuries.

jblonghorn · Oct 30, 2008

GS, do you not L-O-V-E Missouri -20 @ Baylor? I guess it could be one of those so-called "trap lines", but man, what am I missing? It seems that line should be somewhere closer to 30? Missouri absolutely cannot take a week off if their goal is getting to the Big 12 Championship, which is certainly well within their sites. I think they lay the wood. You?

GoSooners · Oct 30, 2008

jblonghorn said:
OU's offense is MUCH more balanced than Tech's, which I'm sure you know. Balanced offenses give Texas MANY more fits than the Missouris and Techs of the world. Ok State had an extremely balanced offense, and they gave Texas fits. I think this fits my argument perfectly re; how the Texas defense is getting better week after week. Had Texas played Oklahoma State the week they played OU, I believe Texas would've lost because they simply wouldn't have been ready for such a great offense. Oklahoma State's offense I believe is one of the 3 best offenses in the country (not to take anything away from OU, but I believe OSU's offense is better). A side note: Missouri had a 1st team All Big 12 tight end that Texas had to cover, and Tech uses tight ends extremely rarely. That gives Muschamp one more person to turn loose after Harrell. GL.

jb...You put up a good argument. That's why I haven't pulled the trigger on this game. The question is if Texas has enough left in their tank to chase the TT receivers around for a full game.

YourAllAmerican · Oct 30, 2008

Dang, GS, I had no idea you feel so strong about online degrees, and their being hot...

I'll tell you the one thing that's keeping me from betting the Over in this game: The most natural thing in the world to expect from this game is a high-scoring shootout finishing at something like 45-42. But in these really big games it seems like the only thing you can count on is that what you expect to happen, won't.

I think I've got enough invested in this game emotionally. I'm keeping my wallet closed.

By the way, I love the angle of a pucker factor working against Tech in the game. This is far and away the most attention they've ever had paid to them, they're truly taking a turn in the spotlight for the first time. I'm hoping they're so tight that a chunk of coal stuck in their rear would come out a diamond.

whormoan · Oct 30, 2008

Can TT make a meaningful FG if need be? Something to consider

GoSooners · Oct 30, 2008

jblonghorn said:
GS, do you not L-O-V-E Missouri -20 @ Baylor? I guess it could be one of those so-called "trap lines", but man, what am I missing? It seems that line should be somewhere closer to 30? Missouri absolutely cannot take a week off if their goal is getting to the Big 12 Championship, which is certainly well within their sites. I think they lay the wood. You?

jb...I'm considering playing Mizzou..But I've had a standing rule of not giving double digits to Big 12 teams on the road..But I agree, Mizzou should be able to easily cover this.

GoSooners · Oct 30, 2008

YourAllAmerican said:
Dang, GS, I had no idea you feel so strong about online degrees, and their being hot...

I'll tell you the one thing that's keeping me from betting the Over in this game: The most natural thing in the world to expect from this game is a high-scoring shootout finishing at something like 45-42. But in these really big games it seems like the only thing you can count on is that what you expect to happen, won't.

I think I've got enough invested in this game emotionally. I'm keeping my wallet closed.

By the way, I love the angle of a pucker factor working against Tech in the game. This is far and away the most attention they've ever had paid to them, they're truly taking a turn in the spotlight for the first time. I'm hoping they're so tight that a chunk of coal stuck in their rear would come out a diamond.

He he he...I didn't edit because I figured an online degreed brain is a terrible thing to waste. I agree that with ESPN Gameday being in Lubbock for the first time ever, with all of the attention it could be too much for Leach's pirate crew to handle. Im not trying to kid anybody here, this is a tough game to cap. Especially now that the point spread has narrowed. Do you take the fresh team who's had the easy schedule, or the team who has so far survived a brutal schedule. But is now hitting the road. You could have a point about the total..I'm curious to see how the noise factor affects McCoy..This will be a very hostile house. They'll be throwing tortillias at players and everything. It's going to be crazy...I don't blame you for closing your wallet on this one..i may possibly do the same.

GoSooners · Oct 30, 2008

whormoan said:
Can TT make a meaningful FG if need be? Something to consider

This extra point kicker they grabbed out of the stands has done well. And now Leach is considering him for FG tries. If they ask this kid to try and kick a winning field goal on primetime TV against the number one team, the asshole pucker factor will go through the roof. He probably won't even be able to make contact with the ball. It's much different kicking extra points at Kansas while up 50 than kicking with the game on the line.

YourAllAmerican · Oct 30, 2008

I'm not worried much about how McCoy will react to that environment. The crowd was UGLY there in his freshman season of 2006 and he brought the Horns back from a big deficit to win the game. I don't think he has the kind of temperament that gets rattled. Hasn't shown any signs of that, at least.

jblonghorn · Oct 30, 2008

YourAllAmerican said:
Dang, GS, I had no idea you feel so strong about online degrees, and their being hot...

I'll tell you the one thing that's keeping me from betting the Over in this game: The most natural thing in the world to expect from this game is a high-scoring shootout finishing at something like 45-42. But in these really big games it seems like the only thing you can count on is that what you expect to happen, won't.

I think I've got enough invested in this game emotionally. I'm keeping my wallet closed.

By the way, I love the angle of a pucker factor working against Tech in the game. This is far and away the most attention they've ever had paid to them, they're truly taking a turn in the spotlight for the first time. I'm hoping they're so tight that a chunk of coal stuck in their rear would come out a diamond.

Really great points All American. I'm loving how Leach has already closed all his practices and is pretty much clamming his team up this week, asking them not to talk to the media. As you said, they might not quite know how to deal with all this attention, Gameday on site, etc. This might as well be another game for Texas, especially after these last 3 weeks (2 ESPN Gamedays alone out of the last 3). My other main concern if I were a Tech backer, is really, who has Tech played this year? Kansas, fine, but, really, how good is Kansas? It seems year in and year out, growing up in the Southwest Conference/ Central Texas area and following the Baylor's, A&M's, Tech's, TCU's, Texas', etc., it seems that Tech is ALMOST ALWAYS in this position (undefeated or 1 loss) when it comes to the Texas game, and 3 weeks later, almost every year, Tech has 3 losses at the end of November. Again, this could very well be their Cinderella year, and Leach hasn't been afraid to publicly admit that. That scares me. But, if you keep it all related to X's and O's, Texas should win going away. Again, that's a big if though.

ShortBusDriver7 · Oct 30, 2008

the aforementioned small college is Valdosta State. Leach was OC for four seasons and Muschamp was DC in 2000.

AlwaysKeen · Oct 30, 2008

great thread as usual gosooners...thanks for the time today...GL this week my friend...

homedawg · Oct 30, 2008

jblonghorn said:
Let me give you my 2 cents on this game too. Muschamp's 1st coaching job was at the same school where Leach's offensive system was invented (sorry but I can't think of the name of the school, it's SMALL). Muschamp had to look at the system that Leach now runs day in and day out for 2 years. Thus you saw his answer to this offense against Mizzou. Muschamp showed 2 weeks ago what he can do against these offenses that Tech and Mizzouri roll out on the field. And his answer to these offenses is to roll the Defensive End into the tackle position and turn 'em loose (along with some other small nuances). With the huge O-line splits, it's physically impossible for the offensive linemen to block these truly faster defensive ends, thus creating havoc for Daniel, and hopefully Harrell. No matter how bad UT's secondary is (and you can't look too much at last weekend's Ok St game, because Chykie Brown, our #1 corner was out, and he's back at 100% now), it won't matter because Muschamp WILL NOT let Harrell sit back and have time. No matter what. Texas' true freshman safeties are growing up before our eyes each week, thus making the secondary that much better each week. I will tell you that the Red Raiders and Lubbock hate Texas and Texas fans with a passion, and that stadium and town wil be rocking unlike anything that town has ever seen before, EVER. This is also Tech's chance to win their 500th game in the program's history. Texas will be walking into a stadium that wants their blood. That to me is the only part that makes me nervous about the game. Believe it or not Texas is an extremely young team, and they might come out a little shellshocked at what they're seeing around them. However, Brown's record in true road games is absolutely astounding, as I believe it's the best in the country the last 4 or 5 years. Whatever he does, he has his guys focused and ready to play each and every road game. Every person in the Texas football program knows this is the final game in a stretch that has never been seen in modern day college football, and they have a chance to come out of it 4-0. In the end I believe this is the same outcome as the Missouri game. It's setting up eerily similar, as GoSooners stated above. Texas 48 Tech 24. GL all this weekend.

But the question here is that the evil genius Mike Leach is well aware of what Muschamp has been doing to slow up these spread offenses. Does he have enough pride to tweak his offense and make enough adjustments to counter this? I mean if the people posting on this forum knows what Muschamp is doing to slow down the spread offenses you have to bet Mike Leach is well aware.
In the long run I don't think it will matter. The speed of Texas D-Line will be too much for the massive Texas Tech O-line. The ONLY factor that can slow down these spread offenses is pressure on the quarterback, and that's pressure cause by non-blitzing. If you blitz you don't want to leave receivers such as Crabtree with 1 on 1 coverage. Therefore if the Texas D line can pressure Harrel like I think they can without throwing to many blitz schemes at him Texas should be successful.
The other factor that complicates this matter is the perception of the Texas Tech defense. It is a VERY underrated defense. I feel it is the best defense Leach has had at Tech. They just get labeled as a poor defense b/c the style of their games. IMO it is much like Oklahoma States defense and will be able to slow the Texas offense down. Ok St could have easily won that game if they hadn't fumbled going in on the 10 in the first half. That turned the momentum of the game over completely. IMO the Tech defense could come up huge and turn this into a relatively low scoring game. I mean real low scoring like 24-21 Texas.

GoSooners · Oct 30, 2008

Iowa State at Oklahoma St....This was the first game that I looked at this week that I knew I was going to play. The linesmakers were pretty smart in setting this line at 31. It keeps people from jumping all over OSU, because face it, OSU still isn't considered a national power. But this is my opinion of the Pokes: After watching all of the teams around the country this year, I think the 3 best teams in the country are 1.Texas 2.OSU 3.Penn State. Personally, I don't think either Florida, Bama or USC could have gone into Columbia and beaten Mizzou in primetime.. And then went to Texas and did everything but win that game. They stood toe to toe with the best team in the country. And if it hadn't been for a couple bad breaks late in the game with a penalty and a turnover could very well have won that game. OSU is the most balanced and solid team on both sides of the ball that I've seen this season. Now their facing the worst team in the Big 12 in Iowa State..I look around and see alot of people jumping on Iowa State because they figure this is a sandwich/letdown game. And there's no way OSU covers this. But let me say that OSU is disappointed in losing to Texas last week. But they aren't down at all. They know their still very much alive in the BCS hunt. And that every game means something for here on out. Also, in order for this to be a good sandwich spot, you have to have a team who is capable offensively of covering the spread..And ISU just isn't. This is a terrible team. Especially on offense. I wouldn't hold the 35 they scored against Texas A&M in too high of regard. Texas A&M has the second worst defense in the Big 12. ISU has been terrible on the road. They managed to score only 6 on Baylor. I watched that game, and they could do nothing offensively in that game. And I don't see them doing anything against this OSU defense, who has come together in the last month and playing some of the best football in the nation. Plus we have the Boone Picken's factor of Gundy getting his team to cover everything at home in front of the biggest university donar in NCAA history. Believe me, this means something. OSU played a Baylor team a couple weeks ago, and OSU played what Gundy said was their worst game of the year. And they still covered by 32 because of their defense. Believe me ISU is even worse than Baylor. And for those of you who have ISU +31, I have a feeling that your asses are going to start puckering when you find your team down 28 in the 3rd quarter, and they haven't been able to sniff the endzone. In order to be a good sandwich game, your dog has to be able to score, and then show some semblence of defense. ISU has given up 35 and 49 at home the last 2 weeks. What do you think OSU is going to do? There's no letting up here..OSU wins this easily. I'm thinking something like 56-10...Taking OSU (-30.5) over Iowa State **