I'll be jumping on the under myself. I agree that Vegas' perception as well as the public's will be overly high in regards to the amount of points that will actually be scored. Texas' #1 goal will be time of posession, their #2 and #3 goal will be time of posession, followed by time of posession. For once Leach actually has the hint of a running game (nothing close to OSU or OU), but he knows that he needs to give his defense some rest as well. I really hope the number is above 79. That seems easy.
According to the post practice reports, all is well. Chykie, Texas' #1 corner right now, is practicing at 100%, but we heard that last week too and he didn't see the field. Other than that they're in great shape. Palmer is fine. I mean, after playing the #1, #3 and #5 teams in the country, any team is gonna be sore as hell, so yes, to a small degree I'm worried that they might not be as fresh as before this run, but I do know that they realize they've got 1 more game to get through, then they can chill for about 6 days....and yes, I LOVE Baylor getting tons of points next week in Austin. There is NO way Texas shows up completely for that game, no way.
South Florida at Cincy...This Cincy team doesn't really look anything like the same team that tore through their schedule last season. They still have a decent defense. But they are only a ghost of themselves on offense. Their QB situation is a mess. Their O-Line isn't blocking. Their only averaging 112 yards per game rushing. This was a team who was +18 in turnover margin last season. This won and covered alot of games for them last season..But this year they are -7. Admittably, neither of these two teams are what they were last season. But the difference here is USF's parts are still all in place. Cincy lost alot of talent off of their team. So USF has the best overall talent on both sides of the ball in this game. USF's D-Line is also playing well. Especially DE Selvie, who gave Louisville fits last week. And that was coming against a better O-Line than Cincy's. Whatever QB Cincy uses this week is going to have problems with this quick athletic USF defense. On the other side of the ball, I think USF is going to have problems moving the ball with any consistency with a young O-LIne going up against this stout Cincy defense. But the difference in this game is USF has the experienced QB to make enough plays to get the job done. And Cincy don't. I also like the Under 51 total in this game..But I'm liking the USF side a bit more..I don't see a team with this much overall talent losing two games in a row against what I consider a mid-level Big East team this year. Taking USF (-2.5) over Cincy **
GS, i read your write ups every week....because i honestly believe you have the most college football knowledge in this forum...just wondering how u have been doing with the weeknight games this season overall...a couple weeks ago i was making most of my money before saturday...last two weeks i have been getting burned...
I really haven't played many weeknight games this year. But the ones that I've played I really haven't done very well. This is why I save most of my plays for Saturday. I did play Buffalo earlier this week for a half a unit because they were a borderline running dogs in my system. But I didn't put it in my thread because of the small wager.. Hopefully I can get back on track tonight....Good luck
I want to get the rest of these plays in before Dr. Bob messes my lines up:
Iowa at Illinois...Iowa is one of my running dogs this week..And in my opinion my strongest one. They play some of the best defense in the league. They haven't allowed more than 22 points to any team this year. And the 22 was in the Northwestern game where Iowa made numerous costly mistakes on offense. Their going up against an Illinois team who doesn't play good defense. They are giving up 25 points a game this year in Big 10 play. While Iowa's defense has allowed about 11 points a game on the season. Plus this is Ferenz's best pass defense. Which is Illinois strength. A good running team going up against a run defense that allows 150 ypg. A good pass offense going up against one of the best pass defenses in the country..Iowa has had two weeks to prepare for this game and make a run in the Big 10...I'm taking Iowa (+3) over Illinois **
Temple at Navy...This is actually a very good situational spot for Temple. And even though I'm tempted to take the Owls in this spot, I'm liking the total play alot more. This Temple team is the only team in the country who is returning all 22 starters. And the biggest improvement on this team has been their defense. Which right now is playing great. They've given up an average of just 12 points a game in their last 4 games. And these games have come against some very good MAC offenses. And now their facing a Navy team that they've faced the last couple of years. They held a much better Navy offense to 30 points last season. And they've now had two weeks to prepare for the option. Navy has also had some QB injuries this year which has hampered their usually high output scoring offense. Temple has also seen the option already this year against Army..The trouble with Temple though, is that they can't score. They've only averaged scoring 12 points a game in their last 5 games..They've lived by their defense. Anjd that's what I think is going to happen here. Navy has lived and scored on turnovers this year (+7). But their playing a team that don't beat themselves. So I don't look for either teams points to not come easy..That's why I'm liking the (UNDER 45) **
Kentucky at Miss. State...I don't usually bet on teams that are a little banged up. But with a Kentucky team that is better across the board than a 3-5 MSU team whose only wins have come against a Division 2 team, a crippled Vandy team and MTSU. A game in which they barely squeaked by. Kentucky on the other hand is on the cusp of being bowl eligible. They are getting a few injured players back on defense. They have much better coaching. Along with better special teams..MSU on the other hand can't run the ball. Which is not a good thing when facing this Kentucky defensive front. MSU basically lives off the idea that their defense is going to cause turnovers to make it easier for their below average offense to score..But the problem is Kentuck y is +8 in turnover margin. So i don't think MSU is going to get many free gifts here...MSU is also a terrible chalk team. Their already 0-2 as the chalk this year. And that came against inferior teams. Their fixin to go 0-3...Taking Kentucky (+3) over Miss. State **
Texas at Texas Tech...Alright fellas...I've decided what I'm going to do with this game. All American has pretty much talked me into the under play. I've been studying Tech's defense and their numbers all morning. And I'm convinced that this is a much improved team on D. When did you ever see this team go on the road and win the games like they have this year? I watched the replay of the Kansas game this morning. And I haven't seen anybody do to Kansas on defense that Tech did. OU and Kansas weren't able to stop them. They rolled up 550 yards on OU a couple weeks ago. But could only mange 315 against Tech. And there really wasn't anything flukey about it. Tech's defensive front was able to put pressure on Reesing all day. And their defensive backs were in all the right places. TT's pass defense has been very good this year. Their giving up 243 ypg to Texas 263. And like Texas, TT has played some high powered passing attacks this year. If Tech wins this game Saturday night, I'm convinced it's going to be more because of their defense than their offense. Tech is a very good +8 in turnover margin this year. Which tells me they have an agressive defense. I still think this is a very very tough spot for Texas. And if it affects any part of their team, i think it's going to be their offense. I expect continued good play out of their defense. They won't be able to shut down Harrell as well as I'm hearing on the board from some of the Texas backers. But I think they can slow them down to below their season scoring average. And vice versa...So I'm going with what I think is the safer play...Taking the (UNDER 75.5) **
Hawaii at Utah State...Utah State is another one of my probable running dogs. Not as strong a play as Iowa. But I like the fact that this team is on the improve at this point in the season. Hawaii simply isn't the scoring juggernaut that they've been in the past. And when they've flown back to the mainland, their point production has gone down. With the exception of the Fresno game where Fresno turned the ball over numerous times against Hawaii, this team has scored only 7, 7 and 10 points. Utah State is actually more productive yardage-wise on offense than Hawaii. And only about 30 yards seperate these teams in total defense. So I would say we have a real live dog here..Utah State lost in a heartbreaker last week when Fresno kicked a last second 58 yard FG to win the game..But I believe Utah States good play will carry over to this game..Taking Utah State (+7) over Hawaii **
Iowa at Illinois...Iowa is one of my running dogs this week..And in my opinion my strongest one. They play some of the best defense in the league. They haven't allowed more than 22 points to any team this year. And the 22 was in the Northwestern game where Iowa made numerous costly mistakes on offense. Their going up against an Illinois team who doesn't play good defense. They are giving up 25 points a game this year in Big 10 play. While Iowa's defense has allowed about 11 points a game on the season. Plus this is Ferenz's best pass defense. Which is Illinois strength. A good running team going up against a run defense that allows 150 ypg. A good pass offense going up against one of the best pass defenses in the country..Iowa has had two weeks to prepare for this game and make a run in the Big 10...I'm taking Iowa (+3) over Illinois **
Temple at Navy...This is actually a very good situational spot for Temple. And even though I'm tempted to take the Owls in this spot, I'm liking the total play alot more. This Temple team is the only team in the country who is returning all 22 starters. And the biggest improvement on this team has been their defense. Which right now is playing great. They've given up an average of just 12 points a game in their last 4 games. And these games have come against some very good MAC offenses. And now their facing a Navy team that they've faced the last couple of years. They held a much better Navy offense to 30 points last season. And they've now had two weeks to prepare for the option. Navy has also had some QB injuries this year which has hampered their usually high output scoring offense. Temple has also seen the option already this year against Army..The trouble with Temple though, is that they can't score. They've only averaged scoring 12 points a game in their last 5 games..They've lived by their defense. Anjd that's what I think is going to happen here. Navy has lived and scored on turnovers this year (+7). But their playing a team that don't beat themselves. So I don't look for either teams points to not come easy..That's why I'm liking the (UNDER 45) **
Kentucky at Miss. State...I don't usually bet on teams that are a little banged up. But with a Kentucky team that is better across the board than a 3-5 MSU team whose only wins have come against a Division 2 team, a crippled Vandy team and MTSU. A game in which they barely squeaked by. Kentucky on the other hand is on the cusp of being bowl eligible. They are getting a few injured players back on defense. They have much better coaching. Along with better special teams..MSU on the other hand can't run the ball. Which is not a good thing when facing this Kentucky defensive front. MSU basically lives off the idea that their defense is going to cause turnovers to make it easier for their below average offense to score..But the problem is Kentuck y is +8 in turnover margin. So i don't think MSU is going to get many free gifts here...MSU is also a terrible chalk team. Their already 0-2 as the chalk this year. And that came against inferior teams. Their fixin to go 0-3...Taking Kentucky (+3) over Miss. State **
Texas at Texas Tech...Alright fellas...I've decided what I'm going to do with this game. All American has pretty much talked me into the under play. I've been studying Tech's defense and their numbers all morning. And I'm convinced that this is a much improved team on D. When did you ever see this team go on the road and win the games like they have this year? I watched the replay of the Kansas game this morning. And I haven't seen anybody do to Kansas on defense that Tech did. OU and Kansas weren't able to stop them. They rolled up 550 yards on OU a couple weeks ago. But could only mange 315 against Tech. And there really wasn't anything flukey about it. Tech's defensive front was able to put pressure on Reesing all day. And their defensive backs were in all the right places. TT's pass defense has been very good this year. Their giving up 243 ypg to Texas 263. And like Texas, TT has played some high powered passing attacks this year. If Tech wins this game Saturday night, I'm convinced it's going to be more because of their defense than their offense. Tech is a very good +8 in turnover margin this year. Which tells me they have an agressive defense. I still think this is a very very tough spot for Texas. And if it affects any part of their team, i think it's going to be their offense. I expect continued good play out of their defense. They won't be able to shut down Harrell as well as I'm hearing on the board from some of the Texas backers. But I think they can slow them down to below their season scoring average. And vice versa...So I'm going with what I think is the safer play...Taking the (UNDER 75.5) **
Hawaii at Utah State...Utah State is another one of my probable running dogs. Not as strong a play as Iowa. But I like the fact that this team is on the improve at this point in the season. Hawaii simply isn't the scoring juggernaut that they've been in the past. And when they've flown back to the mainland, their point production has gone down. With the exception of the Fresno game where Fresno turned the ball over numerous times against Hawaii, this team has scored only 7, 7 and 10 points. Utah State is actually more productive yardage-wise on offense than Hawaii. And only about 30 yards seperate these teams in total defense. So I would say we have a real live dog here..Utah State lost in a heartbreaker last week when Fresno kicked a last second 58 yard FG to win the game..But I believe Utah States good play will carry over to this game..Taking Utah State (+7) over Hawaii **
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Plays so far:
South Florida (-2.5) over Cincy ** (Thursday)
Texas A&M (-3) over Colorado **
OU (-22) over Nebraska **
OSU (-30.5) over Iowa State **
Iowa (+3) over Illinois **
Temple-Navy (UNDER 45) **
Kentucky (+2.5) over Miss. State **
Texas-Texas Tech (UNDER 75.5) **
Utah State (+7) over Hawaii **
South Florida (-2.5) over Cincy ** (Thursday)
Texas A&M (-3) over Colorado **
OU (-22) over Nebraska **
OSU (-30.5) over Iowa State **
Iowa (+3) over Illinois **
Temple-Navy (UNDER 45) **
Kentucky (+2.5) over Miss. State **
Texas-Texas Tech (UNDER 75.5) **
Utah State (+7) over Hawaii **
I don't like paying the juice either...As a rule I won't buy the half point if I think it's going to be a mid to high scoring game..But for Iowa-Ill I expect a realtively low scoring game where points could come at a premium. And Iowa has already lost 3 games this season by less than a TD. So it's better to spend the money and be safe here..
It wouldn't surprise me at all. I've also been trying to figure out if he'll make a rare totals recommendation on the Tulsa/Arkansas Under. It seems like he factors in YPPT quite a bit and he likes to come out with at least one seemingly against-the-grain choice. Going Under 77.5 then getting an Over 73 or so could be a very tempting middle.
I haven't looked at the Tulsa-Ark total yet. But it makes since that Tulsa's point production would go down a little on the road when facing an SEC team. And Arkansas hasn't scored more than 28 points in any game all year. This is probably going to be a pretty hard fought game..Arkansas is playing for SEC pride. And knocking off an undefeated team just coming off a national television win would be just what this team needs..Something tells me Petrino will have them sky high.
