Texas Tech at Kansas State...Texas Tech comes into this game averaging scoring 46 points per game and KSU is averaging 47. Granted that much of this scoring was against cupcakes...But what should be a concern for KSU is against their last two opponets the defense gave up 500 yards to ULL and 575 to Louisville..This Mildcat defense can't tackle..And I don't see things improving in one week. Texas Tech has had a very soft schedule, which keeps me from playing a side in this game..Plus they didn't do too well either when in their only road game their defense gave up 490 yards to Nevada. And this KSU offense is as good as Nevada's. Especially in Manhattan..Tech has had two weeks to prepare their offense for this game. So I expect them to look sharp here..And between these two QB's there could be some passing records going down on this day..And the 66 looks like a very doable number...Taking the (OVER 66) **
Oklahoma at Baylor...Several things favor Baylor in this game..And as you guys know, I like angles. It's just a matter of getting up the balls to play them. So I'm going to grow a few here....When i get on my OU team's message boards, I'm hearing the same type of score predictions over and over..56-14...63-7...49-7...etc etc...In other words it won't be close..But put yourself in OU's place. They are going down to Waco for an 11:00 am morning game. Which I've found over the years can be hard games to cover when there are big spreads involved. Then the Sooners are going to have to deal with chasing around a mobile QB Griffin. And OU has traditionally had problems with mobile QB's. And everybody else so far has had the same problems with Griffin..He reminds me alot of Pat White. Except I think this kid is a better passer..Griffin was quite a find for Art Briles..If they had started him against Wake in that first game, it might have had a much different outcome..This team has made great strides since their opener..And their offense looked very sharp when they went to UCONN for their first road game the other night..I'm also very impressed with their RB Jay Finley, who is averaging 8 ypc from this misdirection spread offense that reminds me at times of West Virginia's offense. Baylor is also coming off a bye week, and should be that much more polished with their schemes coming into this game..I feel pretty sure they'll throw some new wrinkles at OU that they haven't seen. So I definitely think we'll see some points out of Baylor in this game..This will by far be OU's biggest defensive test this year..I believe this Baylor offense has their stuff together, and will be harder to defend than the TCU, Cincy or Washington offenses OU has faced to this point. Baylor is also the borderline running dogs in this game..OU still hasn't gotten their runnning game together like I would see it heading into the Big 12 conference schedule. They average about 165 a game. While Baylor is averaging 230 rushing per game. And about 400 yards of total offense..And teams who get up around the 400 yard mark or more on offense can be very hard to cover the spread against when playing them at home. But perhaps the biggest reason that I like Baylor is OU has Texas on board next week. And can anybody think of when the Texas-OU game has been bigger the last 10 years? We'll more than likely have two undefeated top 5 teams playing each other this season in the Red River Rivalry. So with this sandwich game between TCU and Texas, I'm betting OU will just not be 100% focused in this morning game..Baylor will be well rested and ready..This is a classic sandwich-lookahead spot.......Taking Baylor (+27) over OU ***
Temple at Miami, Ohio...I hate messing with these MAC games, but this looks like a very good spot for Temple..And I feel the line is way off. For one thing, a Miami team who is averaging only 298 of total offense a game shouldn't be favored by a full TD over anybody, anywhere. Temple is still without their star QB DiMichele. But RS freshman Stewart got christened in rude fashion against Penn State in his first road game. And now he has two full games under his belt..And I expect him to perform much better in his second road start..Especially against a Miami defense who has been less than spectacular this season. Miami's only win this year has come against Division 2 Charleston Southern..They otherwise really haven't been competetive against Division 1 teams..Temple on the other hand has. After beating Army, they took UCONN, Buffalo and Western Michigan right down to the wire in losing by a total of 9 points to those three teams...So the Owls are way overdue for a win. And I think they're going to get it here. And 7 points is alot of points between two teams that are hovering around the 300 yard mark of total offense.. I also believe Temple might be the better defensive team...And they are certainly the running dogs in this spot..Taking Temple (+7) over Miami, Ohio **
Iowa at Michigan State...This should be a good old fashion slobberknocker between two traditional Big 10 offenses. I expect a lot of running the ball, defense and field position being played in this game... So this alone makes this 7.5 spread seem huge. We'll get to see two good RB's in Ringer form MSU and Shonn Green of Iowa. But the yards won't come easy for either RB. Especially Ringer, who is going up against an Iowa defense that is holding teams to only 91 ypg rushing. MSU isn't far behind at 123. I think we're getting good line value on Iowa after losing a 5 turnover game against an undefeated Northwestern team last week. I look for Iowa to play much better today and protect the ball. Unless MSU is playing an extra weak defense, they really don't play the kind of offensive style that blows other teams out..They'll try to grind it out in the trenches with Iowa, with an occasional pass by Hoyer. And if they get a win at all here. It will be a close one..This game is really a no-brainer for me..Iowa is not only the running dogs in this game. They are the running dogs with the best defense..Which makes this an even stronger play.......Taking Iowa (+7.5) over Michigan State ***
Loving both Iowa and Baylor GS =]
I pretty much wrote a similar write up on the Iowa game. Baylor I haven't played with the hope of getting 28 but thats looking pretty dire now.
GS I really Pitt today. Thats my problem though I like Pitt. 14 points is an inflated due mostly to the perception of the past month with the stash struggling against inferior opponents and USF having impressed. Thing is people don't realize Pitt doesn't blow people out but at the same time its hard to blow them out given their style of play/play calling (you know run first conservative approach, run some more with a lead, and play decent enough D). Another way to put it is that the stash (aka Dave) has a tendency to play to the level of their competition. One last thing everybody is talking about Grothe improvements passing the ball while I won't make much of an argument with that perception I think its been overstated a bit given the quality of the opposition. The only worry I have and its a pretty big one is how Pitt's inconsistent OL (an understatement naturally) hold up against USF's formidable DL. Bottom line 14 points is a lot of points in conference play with two of the top 4 teams within the Big East clashing on a televised game. Am I trying to talk myself into playing it I think thats evident by this post.
Your thoughts (for its the main reason I posted this)?
I pretty much wrote a similar write up on the Iowa game. Baylor I haven't played with the hope of getting 28 but thats looking pretty dire now.
GS I really Pitt today. Thats my problem though I like Pitt. 14 points is an inflated due mostly to the perception of the past month with the stash struggling against inferior opponents and USF having impressed. Thing is people don't realize Pitt doesn't blow people out but at the same time its hard to blow them out given their style of play/play calling (you know run first conservative approach, run some more with a lead, and play decent enough D). Another way to put it is that the stash (aka Dave) has a tendency to play to the level of their competition. One last thing everybody is talking about Grothe improvements passing the ball while I won't make much of an argument with that perception I think its been overstated a bit given the quality of the opposition. The only worry I have and its a pretty big one is how Pitt's inconsistent OL (an understatement naturally) hold up against USF's formidable DL. Bottom line 14 points is a lot of points in conference play with two of the top 4 teams within the Big East clashing on a televised game. Am I trying to talk myself into playing it I think thats evident by this post.
Your thoughts (for its the main reason I posted this)?
VR...I have the same reasoning that you do about the Pitt-USF game..But the only reason that I may not play it is the home team system on Thursday night is very strong. And they will cover probably 7 out of 10 times.. If I do decide to play it, it will be just a 1 unit play on Pitt. Or possible the under since both of these teams have quality defenses. The only other reasons why I would hestitate to put any significant amount of money down on Pitt is their strength of schedule isn't as strong as USF's at this point in the season. The QB edge is in favor of USF. As well as the coaching edge...Good luck
