GS, I have a question for you. I have been coming to this site for a few years, mostly just reading, only this year have I been posting much. It's tough to find a guy to tail, I like winning money as much as the next guy, but I also enjoy capping the game too. How do you break these games down? It's really tough to watch every game and go from there. But my question is, I would assume that you use mostly stats and what you have seen on TV, how often if ever do you go off of gut feel? I ask because I had a guy tell me all week long that his lock of the year was Auburn -3.5 at Vandy. As we all know the Tigers fell on their face and lost SU. But anyways I told him that was a game that I didn't want to be on either side of, we have seen too often how certain situations that any team can lose. I didn't really have a good answer to give him why I didn't like the Tigers but I flat out told him that I didn't like the Tigers. How often do you go on straight up gut feel?
eschamp...I'm just like everybody else. I get gut feelings about teams winning or losing. But I would prefer the numbers to back up my reasoning. When lines come out on Sunday, I very seldom will jump on a spread and play it. No matter how good it looks at first impression. In fact, I pretty much take Sunday's off. I will play an occasional game on Monday like I did last week with OSU over Texas A&M..But I did that because I already had that game capped out this summer..And I had Texas A&M as a huge fade this season..And OSU as an improved team..Nothing about these teams had changed, so I played it.
Early in the week I get on the phone or the net and talk to other cappers about games..And we all pretty much give out our first impressions of a game..But first impressions about a team or a game can change drastically for me from early in the week. Posters used to get mad at me here at the RX because on Sunday or Monday I would say I like this or that team. But at the end of the week when I posted my plays I would be on the other side. That's why I try not to give too many early opinions about games here..When I start breaking down a game, there are things that can change my mind about it. Especially in relation to the Running Dogs system.
When I breakdown games, the first thing I look at is how each teams stats compare to each other. Which is probably what most everybody does..Then I start breaking it down by looking at the matchups such as the offensive and defensive lines, QB's, coaches etc. Then admittably my favorite part of capping, I look for lookahead spots, rivalry games, revenge games, letdown games. And spots where I think a team is due for a good game or bad game..These are the hardest to spot. But many times you can get on a teams website or read the local media publications on the net to get an idea of what's going on with the team. Plus I've studied game results for years. And I can sometimes get that gut feeling when a team is due for a loss or a win against the spread...This is something I highly recommend for people to do..Keep last years results and study it to see how teams go up and down in form over the year..They all do. Very few teams stay on the same level throughout the year. Teams are always in flux because of youth on the team or injuries. And these things can make a difference in the overall confidence of a team during the season..
But having said all of this, don't underestimate your gut feelings about a game..I had 4 strong running dogs last week..But I only played one of them. And that was Iowa. A strong running dog is a running dog with a better defense. The other 3 were UCONN, Stanford and Ohio..I didn't play the three other teams because of a gut feeling..And from watching their games..As good as they looked I didn't play UCONN because I had watched them play Louisville a week ealier, and I didn't like all of the rushing yards they were giving up to Louisville..Otherwise UCONN looked great..But it was against inferior comptetion. So I passed on the NC game thinking that NC could do the same thing to them..And they did..Then I looked at Ohio. They had good numbers. But I didn't like the fact that they were one of the youngest teams in the MAC goiing on the road to play Western Michigan. The most expereinced team in the nation. That alone was enough to get me off of the game..And then I didn't take Stanford, although you could have won that game depending on what kind of line you had. But the thing I didn't like about that game even though Stanford had the better numbers was they were playing a ND team who was on a slight improve after playing 3 Big 10 teams in a row..And the fact that Stanford was having to travel across country through a couple of time zones to play a game...I didn't feel like they were getting quite enough points for me to play them. Otherwise I might have given it a shot...
I could go on forever about the ways I look at with these games..And someday I might list all of the things I do...But I can tell you the best thing you can do when capping games is to use common sense to your advantage..If a game doesn't look quite right to you, DON'T PLAY IT. I can't empasize that enough..There are 50 other games a week out there waiting to be played.
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Great Week
Great week GS!! Another quality week of picking.
I'm anxious to see what you are thinking between your sooners and my Horns. I see where Pinnacle opened it at 7. I'm pretty sure my horns won't be considered the running dog here as their best runner is their QB and haven't shown they can run it at all -- even against the schools of the weak they have played. On paper, this looks like a really high scoring affair. Both teams have shown to give up some yards, but are stingy when it comes to giving up the points. Getting Granger back will be a big help, if he's close to full strength. There are some very interesting match-ups but the one thing in OU's favor is their pass offense against the Texas pass D. Texas' speed on defense looked pretty good against Colorado and seems to be getting better every week -- which is to be expected as they get more and more comfortable w/ Muschamp and what he wants them to do. Still researching but I'm thinking 38 to 30 OU.
That means it will be 13-10, as I'm almost always wrong when I pick the scores!! Good luck and congrats again on the great week!
Great week GS!! Another quality week of picking.
I'm anxious to see what you are thinking between your sooners and my Horns. I see where Pinnacle opened it at 7. I'm pretty sure my horns won't be considered the running dog here as their best runner is their QB and haven't shown they can run it at all -- even against the schools of the weak they have played. On paper, this looks like a really high scoring affair. Both teams have shown to give up some yards, but are stingy when it comes to giving up the points. Getting Granger back will be a big help, if he's close to full strength. There are some very interesting match-ups but the one thing in OU's favor is their pass offense against the Texas pass D. Texas' speed on defense looked pretty good against Colorado and seems to be getting better every week -- which is to be expected as they get more and more comfortable w/ Muschamp and what he wants them to do. Still researching but I'm thinking 38 to 30 OU.
That means it will be 13-10, as I'm almost always wrong when I pick the scores!! Good luck and congrats again on the great week!
How much do you buy into fading line movement? It's kinda strange, as you know I loved Navy last week and they won SU, from looking at the #'s the consensus was on AF yet the line moved over 1.5 points towards NAVY. On the other hand Tennessee had a huge consensus advantage over NIU yet from what I saw, the line only moved a half a point? Do you ever use line movement?
One of the hardest things that I have found capping college compared to the pro is the injury news is downright awful. I know the ACC finally went to the same system as the pros but with everybody else, for the most part its what you can get out of a beat reporter.
I watch the lines..But I'm not an excessive line watcher..If there is a big movement of a line against my play, then I'll look on the internet or call around and see if there might be something that happened with one of the teams or players. Or possibly something i might have missed in capping the game..I had to get off of one play earlier in the season because of a late undisclosed injury to a key player...But it doesn't happen very often...I'll use line movement to make a play if it favors my team. Line movement can also get me off a team I intended to play if the movement doesn't go my way..I will never bet a game blindly just on line movement. I had a similar thing happen with the Maryland-Cal game as happened to the Navy-AF game that you mentioned..It appeared the public was on Cal, but the line kept creeping down through the week..Needless to say I love when this happens. As for injuries, it can sometimes be hard to find out things from certain teams..I know Bob Stoops can be pretty tight lipped when it comes to injuries to his players. But things I look for with injuries to like say O-lineman or D-Lineman is injuries to the lower body..Upper body injuries to lineman aren't nearly as serious..The big uglies can play with hand and some arm injuries..But any injury to the lower body is something you have to take a close look at..Players have to be able to get off the line fast. And any leg or foot injury can severly hamper a big lineman, and put him at a disadvantage..And just a couple injuries to an offensive line can really disrupt the chemistry of the entire line..That's when you really have to be careful with some of these teams. Colorado was a good example of a team who was going through these injuries on the line..I had a one unit play that I put on Colorado..But these injuries kept me from playing it bigger and putting it in my thread. As it turned out, it was a severe hinderence with Colorado trying to move the ball against a very good Texas defensive line..
