Many thanks for taking the time to post your info here..I am definitely taking all of these stats into consideration with this game. And I've looked at the game and also TT-KSU in depth tonight.. I think past history with teams like Texas Tech and Mizzou on the road have made me and a few others hesitant to give the points. But this could be a week that I break my own rules and bet a road favorite. The one thing that I probably need to get a grip with is the outstanding QB's and offenses that we have in this league..Teams like Mizzou and TT haven't been able to cover on the road in the past, but we have ask the question: Have either of these two teams ever been this good before, or rated this high? And the answer to that is no. So these could both be statement games. I just don't want to see these lines continue to go up. Especially the TT line.
This could be a good play..Your chances are much better at hitting this if there isn't a complete blowout. Like say 49-7...But like I said here before, I don't see that happening in this game...I can see more of a 45-21 type of game. I just think Baylor has enough offense that if they remain persistant throughout the game, they'll probably also be able to score some junk points after the game has been decided. Right now I'm trying to decide between the over total or a straight play on Baylor..If I play the game at all. But the OVER is definitely the way I would lean here....Good luck
Texas at Colorado...So far the Texas defense under the direction of Will Muschamp has looked very good in giving up only 11 points per game..They are also giving up only 300 ypg and only 53 yards rushing per game. Colorado has also played much better defense this season in giving up only 330 ypg. The Texas offense has also looked good in averaging over 480 ypg. But keep in mind that their defensive opponents have included Arkansas, UTEP, Rice and FAU..Teams that aren't exactly known for their defenses. And all of these games have been played in the state of Texas..I expect the Horns offensive numbers to go down quite a bit in their first true road test against a Big 12 opponent. CU is averaging scoring about 26 points per game against division 1 opponents. But are facing their stiffest test against Texas. So I would expect those numbers to also go down in this game. What adds to my thinking is two of CU's best offensive lineman got hurt in the FSU game and will be out for the season. This is a HUGE blow to the Buffs offense. Especially in trying to establish a run game against a very active and agressive Texas defensive line. CU OL Ryan Miller was a freshman All American offensive lineman last season, and he will be missed. He will be replaced by a redshirt freshman. And they'll be facing a very experienced Texas D-Line. So even if CU should find themselves in the Texas redzone, they may have trouble punching it in if they don't have an adequate rush game behind a makeshift O-Line..My bet is we'll probably see field goals where we could or should have seen TD's. Texas also won't find the scoring as easy in this game. So I can see much more of a defensive game than an offenive game here...I'm taking the (UNDER 57) **
Doesn't both of these teams pass defenses concern you? I know that has been a weekness for the horns since 05 but nobody has been able to expose it this year. Another one if you have time to look at that I like this week is Navy +6 they have won the last 5 in this match up and they are chewing up yards on the ground at a prolific clip this again this year.
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echamp...Colorado's pass defense is very good. They give up just 116 ypg. Texas gives up 251 ypg passing..But keep in mind that they have shut the run down this year and given teams no option but to pass. Plus they've also played a couple good passing teams this year. The thing is, Colorado's strength really isn't their pass game. They only average 182 ypg passing. If you compare Texas to some of the other top defenses around the country, they really aren't that different in stats. OU gives up 233 ypg passing. Bama gives up over 200 ypg passing. As well as the number 1 statistical defense in the country TCU, who gives up 220 ypg. All of these teams have something in common. They're all good at stopping the run. And the run game has been a strength of this Colorado team. But with their O-Line banged up, they'll also probably have to resort to the pass to move the ball. Unless there are a large amount of unforseen turnovers or special teams plays, I don't see this number going over the total. I'll take a look at the Navy game some more tomorrow..I looked at it briefly today, and Navy could be the running dogs.
hey sooners .........wanted to stop by an say hello since week 1 but daaammmmm you have been getting tons of replies on your post an did not want to clutter it up anymore ......( just did )
hope all is well an thanks for your efforts .....your post are a must read for me on a daily basis ........
hope all is well an thanks for your efforts .....your post are a must read for me on a daily basis ........
any thoughts on Rice/Tulsa?
I am about 80% sure I'm going with Rice. And I'm probably going to hit it very hard. It looks to be a bad #. Tulsa has played the WORST defenses, these two match up well, Clement has the experience edge, it's usually a visitor's series. I've seen Rice play in person. They were by far the best team Texas has played, they put up a lot of yards but have no defense. It was a closer game than the score, they had to go for it on 4th downs very early on the game, and there was that 10+ play goal line stand for Texas where Rice got no points, something like 11 plays inside the 5 (penalties kept giving them a new set).
I don't get a whole lot on Tulsa. The only thing I see is Tulsa's advantage in running at Rice, but I don't think that is worth 2 TD's as familiar with each other as they are. They might score into triple digits. Anything you care to add about Tulsa? best of luck this week
I'm also thinking about going small on Mizzou, but the entire free world is on that, the thing is...Chase Daniel should be able to handle the pressure, I just don't know about the Tigers' defense, Nebraska may hang with them in a shootout. I'm with you small on OKST vs ATM, unbelievable how far the Aggies have fallen. I think you have the right side on the UT/COL under, horns should play vanilla before OU, and part of the reason I took the points with Baylor.
I am about 80% sure I'm going with Rice. And I'm probably going to hit it very hard. It looks to be a bad #. Tulsa has played the WORST defenses, these two match up well, Clement has the experience edge, it's usually a visitor's series. I've seen Rice play in person. They were by far the best team Texas has played, they put up a lot of yards but have no defense. It was a closer game than the score, they had to go for it on 4th downs very early on the game, and there was that 10+ play goal line stand for Texas where Rice got no points, something like 11 plays inside the 5 (penalties kept giving them a new set).
I don't get a whole lot on Tulsa. The only thing I see is Tulsa's advantage in running at Rice, but I don't think that is worth 2 TD's as familiar with each other as they are. They might score into triple digits. Anything you care to add about Tulsa? best of luck this week
I'm also thinking about going small on Mizzou, but the entire free world is on that, the thing is...Chase Daniel should be able to handle the pressure, I just don't know about the Tigers' defense, Nebraska may hang with them in a shootout. I'm with you small on OKST vs ATM, unbelievable how far the Aggies have fallen. I think you have the right side on the UT/COL under, horns should play vanilla before OU, and part of the reason I took the points with Baylor.
ATX...I haven't got around to looking at the Tulsa-Rice game in detail. I know this number seems a bit high..But my numbers have Tulsa winning by 21...As for Mizzou, I'm also leaning to the Tigers.. But the line is starting to get close to my number, which is 13.5. If I decide to play it, would just be a small play on Missouri.
I don't see much difference in the 2 defenses. Look at who Tulsa has played. They have played the WORST defenses in NCAA football, not an exaggeration. I'm not doing another writeup here, but I have part of one done across the street, I'm cutting it short to about 5 pages.
This game should hit triple digits, the total is actually too low, they know they will get action on the under at 80.5
I'm just determining how MUCH to put on Rice, it's a bad bad line.
