Follow steam in CBB and win- best sport for "smart money"

[Iceman]

If there was anything to this why give it away. You just shoot
yourself in the foot, besides all the spots lost while spending
hours talking.

Unless you've moved onto something different & more lucrative.
No need to watch the screen all day when one can simply
follow Rx sharps.

read my above post. i have been posting about this for months and not seen 1% of change in the market capping. They talk about this on alot of other forums and it is work, peorid plain and simple. You have to be quick, have a decent sized bankroll and be in alot of books(not sure that is safe right now) but no reason we can't all beat up our locals doing this. Don't think they wouldn't screw us over.

My best advice to someone attempting this is to bet steam but only if you get the right number.

Just trying to give back and help a few guys win. Going to bed. good luck to everyone and remeber get a good number, it means EVERYTHING!!!

 

[Iceman]

Kid,
Like I said .5pt is not enough
I proved that to you using solid data


chao

thanks for taking the time to answer all my questions.:toast: Have a good nite.

 

[Brooklynbomber]

You're right J-man. Doesn't work well in the NFL or NBA because there is so much money down it is hard for anyboby to move the lines. Small team CBB and CFB is best...especially full cards.

 

[Betallsports]

My 2 cents.................

I have DB Premium Odds ( DBS2K ) which you can set-up All the Books you want to watch all the Action, and it's LIVE for no delays.
But no need to watch all day and find the Steam plays, because you get Automatic & customizable notification of all major line moves via audio & visual alerts. So they tell you Every Steam play !
But They Don't always work out !

 

[TomBrady#1]

FORGET the half point thing it was to help people that didn't understand a scalpable line was and I am not sure you know what one is. It equates to .75. Hitting 55% of alot of plays will make someone rich REALLY fast!! Faster than almost any form of investing out there. You will hard pressed to find 1 capper win at 55%.

than explain my 55% win pct on using this. Take it or leave it. I will say it again BET THE BAD SIDE OF A SCALPABLE LINE OR THE BAD SIDE OF A MIDDLE and you will win and win big.

If I was wrong than why do they boot guys ot for beating books to line moves? Please answer


Research the Pinny lean and why everyone that uses it WINS? Please answer

Why have all scalpers/middlers I know beat square books and lost there ass to PINNY (the sharp book)? Please answer

Why is does anyone that has a clue ALWAYS beat SQUARE books like one of the sponsors here and most guys are kicked out of there? Please answer

Would love to hear your answers. You are the one with the info and steam wins and wins BIG in CBB and once again thanks for supporting my statement about that.

Thanks Ice. At least I now understand exactly what this all means. I really did not before but am starting now. Good day.

 

[Iceman]

Thanks Ice. At least I now understand exactly what this all means. I really did not before but am starting now. Good day.

your welcome. Sorry I didn't get a chance to answer every post. Like I said earlier, the last thing I am trying to do is come across as a know it all.

You have always been a decent capper which is something I admire( and can't really do). Maybe you can add some of things I have said to your arsenal to make you better. We all have our own style. That is first and formost. Do what fits you best and then go from there.

Just another way too look at this.:toast:

 

[TheWolf]

BetAll Sports.......True theyalways dont work.........they just have to work better than 52% of the time!:toast:



ICE--- Could you please explain two things......

#1...How has this worked for 1st half and halftimes? I know it is CRUCIAL to get that 1/2 or 1 point on the halftime lines.

#2... Could you please explain the Pinny factor for me? Thanks

 

[BetIt]

no Iceman...but I know what he's talking about with 2nd half lines.

1. you need a real slow moving book here..SIA comes to mind and I'm sure there are a few other ones who a) don't bother moving 2nd half lines or b) real slow in doing it.....

2. Let's take an over/under 96 for the 2nd half....if it gets pounded hard you see 96 go to -120, -130 etc...at Pinny pretty fast while at SIA they are still holding a flat 96 (-110)....therefore you are getting a value of 10-30 cents on the halftime line vs pinny.....

that is the pinny lean that you are getting at full value

 

[TheWolf]

Please clarify....

Ice--- I am trying to understand what you do but I still cannot b/c I read a different thread you wrote that contradicts what you are saying here.....

It was something like this......Dallas opened at -7 then jumped to -9.5, so you played Indiana + 9.5. Dallas clearly was steamed so your play shouldve been Dallas -7 if you were getting the rogue line, not Indiana +9.5........now youve confused me as to what it is you are doing. I understand middling, but this particulat thread wasnt in reference to a middle.


Also, to anyone else who would like to chime in on this......Several NCABB lines have jumped a full point from their opening lines this afternoon. Clearly, they arent tout plays as they have not been released yet.......so, who is moving these lines? Lots of squares or a few sharps? How do you know?

Ice says 90% of his plays are made after 6PM....which makes sense for the late steam plays........however, there is no way to get the value from the early line moves throughout the day unless your bookie is a complete idiot and uses the opening number still. Are the early line moves of 1 -2 points still a play even if you dont get the better number?

 

[PyRoCaPPer]

I think that it is mainly the public moving these lines throughout the day..Sharps may pounce on them right when they come out, only to go over the top and bet the other team right before tip to get the best # possible, or even a chance for middling opportunities...IMO

 

[TheWolf]

I think that it is mainly the public moving these lines throughout the day..Sharps may pounce on them right when they come out, only to go over the top and bet the other team right before tip to get the best # possible, or even a chance for middling opportunities...IMO

Agreed, but how do you know if the sharps are moving the late lines or the people playing the touts/service plays?

 

[juice]

has anyone thought of building an application that monitors whatever sites you guys are looking at and sending notifications if it's determined a line is being steamed?
Sounds like that sort of thing would be pretty useful

 

[Iceman]

jus got home. Try to answer some of this.

The thread with the Dallas thing is something I call "public money" and most likely right now something you don't need to worry about. If the public moves the number a few points from it established opener(with out an injury involved) than it creates value but like I said forgot about that right now. It will only confuse you. We will get back to that later.

The post by Betit sums it up perfect. Haltimes are by far the easiet to do this with as some books are slow and they are easy to find (esp totals). I only do NBA hoops for HT's.

1st halves at some books are notoriuos for this and you can find them (mostly totals).

Don't worry at all about smart money and touts and that mess. In cbb most steam is smart becasue how long is someone going to play this game at a high level unless they have a big bankroll. Follow steam and bet -120 lines at square books for -110 and you will win.

 

[TheWolf]

jus got home. Try to answer some of this.

The thread with the Dallas thing is something I call "public money" and most likely right now something you don't need to worry about. If the public moves the number a few points from it established opener(with out an injury involved) than it creates value but like I said forgot about that right now. It will only confuse you. We will get back to that later.

The post by Betit sums it up perfect. Haltimes are by far the easiet to do this with as some books are slow and they are easy to find (esp totals). I only do NBA hoops for HT's.

1st halves at some books are notoriuos for this and you can find them (mostly totals).

Don't worry at all about smart money and touts and that mess. In cbb most steam is smart becasue how long is someone going to play this game at a high level unless they have a big bankroll. Follow steam and bet -120 lines at square books for -110 and you will win.

Thanks Ice.....Hope I'm not being a pain.....I've done this before in CFB like I said and I am just trying to pick your brain on the NCAABB side of things...How do you handle all ofthe afternoon line moves?

 

[Iceman]

Thanks Ice.....Hope I'm not being a pain.....I've done this before in CFB like I said and I am just trying to pick your brain on the NCAABB side of things...How do you handle all ofthe afternoon line moves?

no pain at all. afternoon, I haven't even looked at a game today. depends on my mood. I am going back to work so I cna get home at 5;30 or so and then I start doing this full bore till 11pm or so. Before 5:30 if I am bored. Just is alot risker ealry in the day.

 

[Bluemyboy]

have not used donbest..... but sportsinsights has in the last couple months put on some software for I believe just what you are talking about. And it is far less then DB. current features:

smart money - Offer book by book smart money or can look at it while looking at all the books at the same time. Contarian tool

Line watcher- This feature allows you to set your line movement parameters according to your preferences and, consequently, receive notifications of subsequent line changes. both e-mail and pop-up

Steam moves- Steam Moves are defined as sudden line movement across the entire sports betting marketplace. We record these dramatic moves and which sportsbook "initiated" or "triggered" the steam move. Undoubtedly there are sportsbook that set the market and sportsbook that follow the market. We display the results of "Bet Line Before Move". In this column we use the same odds as the person or syndicate group that caused the market to move. We display the results for "Bet Line After Move". In this column we use the odds after the dust settles. Finally we display "Bet Line Against Move". In this column we track the results of betting against the Steam Move.

The "First to Move" feature is related to "Steam Moves". In effect, "First to Move" breaks down Steam Moves according to which sportsbook moves first. This feature is designed to help our Members determine if certain books are "better" indicators in terms of Steam Moves. Should you follow Steam Moves at Sportsbook A? Fade their Steam Moves? Our Premium Pro members have this information at their fingertips.

surebets- all this is, is for scalping

middle oppertunities- self explanitory




I have never really used these features as I dont have the time all day to sit and wait, and on top of that you can do most of these by yourself just looking at the lines. SI also has live odds for the following sportsbooks including their opening and closing numbers all archived as well: PIN, CRIS, WWTS, BETUS, CASC, SIA, 5D, WSEX, OLY, ABC, SportsBook, CANBET, sportsbet, OASIS, GRANDE, BODOG, and they very recently just add MATCHBOOK to the list.

I have no affiliation with SI, other then I use their services, however if this over the line just erase it.

 

[BetIt]

Ice: how is matchbook for these?

I imagine some people leave some lines (that get steamed) up there come close to gametime?

 

[TheWolf]

no pain at all. afternoon, I haven't even looked at a game today. depends on my mood. I am going back to work so I cna get home at 5;30 or so and then I start doing this full bore till 11pm or so. Before 5:30 if I am bored. Just is alot risker ealry in the day.

So to sum this whole thing up then you just hit the games where the line moves sharply after 6PM on through Midnigh?

 

[TheWolf]

ICE--

Please list what the criteria is that determines what games are "play ons" for you. What specifically do you look for. Thanks.

 

[Iceman]

ICE--

Please list what the criteria is that determines what games are "play ons" for you. What specifically do you look for. Thanks.

any games with -120 lines. NBA dogs have been my best bets but hardest to find. Favs have been a struggle. Totals seem to have won at a high rate but bottom line beat the bad line. Grab any edge you can find. The more the merrier.