I think these would qualify:
James Madison/Towson St 1H U63.5 -122 (Pinny)
James Madison/Towson St 1H U63.5 -110 (WSEX)
Princeton/Seton Hall 1H U54 -120 (Pinny)
Princeton/Seton Hall 1H U54 -110 (WSEX)
Ice, can you confirm that these (JM/T U63.5 -110 at WSEX and P/SH U54 -110 at WSEX) are plays based on your system (or whatever you want to call it)? I hope so, as I played both.
Also, how much do you play these for (percent of bankroll) and what do you think the max % of bankroll should be for these plays (I know you said you're somewhat over-cautious with your bankroll).
Also, Pinny has Seton Hall -4.5 -108 and WSEX has Seton Hall -4 -110. Is this a play as well?
EDIT: Wow! Seton Hall 1H now -4.5 -117 at Pinny. Jumped all over -4 -110 at WSEX.
James Madison/Towson St 1H U63.5 -122 (Pinny)
James Madison/Towson St 1H U63.5 -110 (WSEX)
Princeton/Seton Hall 1H U54 -120 (Pinny)
Princeton/Seton Hall 1H U54 -110 (WSEX)
Ice, can you confirm that these (JM/T U63.5 -110 at WSEX and P/SH U54 -110 at WSEX) are plays based on your system (or whatever you want to call it)? I hope so, as I played both.
Also, how much do you play these for (percent of bankroll) and what do you think the max % of bankroll should be for these plays (I know you said you're somewhat over-cautious with your bankroll).
Also, Pinny has Seton Hall -4.5 -108 and WSEX has Seton Hall -4 -110. Is this a play as well?
EDIT: Wow! Seton Hall 1H now -4.5 -117 at Pinny. Jumped all over -4 -110 at WSEX.
Ice, one thing I also wanted to ask you that I'm unclear on:
Does something like this qualify?
Team A -5 -108 @ Pinny
Team B -4.5 -110 @ Book 2
I'm not sure because of the -108. If Pinny had -5 -110 then it clearly would, but the -5 -108 would be the equivalent to -4.5 -118 wouldn't it? Thus making it not a play as it is only 8 cents different, not the necessary 10.
Wondering this based on the Seton Hall 1H I posted above. I ended up playing it obviously as it moved to -117 and then -123, but had it stayed at -108 with a half point difference, would it have been a play? Thanks for all your help!
Does something like this qualify?
Team A -5 -108 @ Pinny
Team B -4.5 -110 @ Book 2
I'm not sure because of the -108. If Pinny had -5 -110 then it clearly would, but the -5 -108 would be the equivalent to -4.5 -118 wouldn't it? Thus making it not a play as it is only 8 cents different, not the necessary 10.
Wondering this based on the Seton Hall 1H I posted above. I ended up playing it obviously as it moved to -117 and then -123, but had it stayed at -108 with a half point difference, would it have been a play? Thanks for all your help!
Johnny B said:
the way to learn this the best is to use the pinny drop down screen and see if they are charging -120 or more on the same number if so bet it. I would say with you example that they would be -4.5 probably -118 or so . So to answer your question I would say no edge but close. A -120 line at pinny if you can get at square book for -110 (10 cent edge) then bet it.
Interesting Thread
Last year I knew someone who beat Millenium and one other with scalps in CBB and NBA, and a local. Was new to this sort of thing and was thinking he was going to win evenly all around but clearly it was everyone but Pinnacle that he was beating. He made $$$ for 3 months and I was going to piggyback with him this year but prior to NFL 2006 he was booted from local, Millenium closed shop, and was put on bet watch at 3rd place.
Bottom line: I can see how this was a money maker, and my friend was able to make $$$ with plays on both sides moving Pinnacle line to + status with the drop downs but he made too much $$$ and so that option is now gone. Now without Pinnacle he has stopped doing this, and I don't know if I should give it a try.
A question: With Pinny out of the US do you still think their moves can be trusted? I know high rollers still find a way to place wagers with them, but some of the sharps may have moved on, and the total wagered at Pinny has to be much lower. It may be interesting to see if they lose some of their edge by leaving the US market and people beat them?
Thanks.
Last year I knew someone who beat Millenium and one other with scalps in CBB and NBA, and a local. Was new to this sort of thing and was thinking he was going to win evenly all around but clearly it was everyone but Pinnacle that he was beating. He made $$$ for 3 months and I was going to piggyback with him this year but prior to NFL 2006 he was booted from local, Millenium closed shop, and was put on bet watch at 3rd place.
Bottom line: I can see how this was a money maker, and my friend was able to make $$$ with plays on both sides moving Pinnacle line to + status with the drop downs but he made too much $$$ and so that option is now gone. Now without Pinnacle he has stopped doing this, and I don't know if I should give it a try.
A question: With Pinny out of the US do you still think their moves can be trusted? I know high rollers still find a way to place wagers with them, but some of the sharps may have moved on, and the total wagered at Pinny has to be much lower. It may be interesting to see if they lose some of their edge by leaving the US market and people beat them?
Thanks.
Johnny B said:
than add about 9 cents or so for a half point. They do on totals. I did not see this game. REMEMBER you must beat the closing line if you do not beat the clsoing line than this bet is worthless (IMO) something you must keep your eyes on at all times. Totals are 5X easier than sides in halftimes.
Iceman said:
OK
Iceman said:
Wait. So if the line closes at WSEX at -5 -110 and -5 -122 at Pinny, even though you have a 12 cent edge, it is worthless because you got the closing line?
Or do you simply mean if Pinny has -122 in the above example for awhile while WSEX has -110, if Pinny moves from -122 to -115 and ends up closing at -115, that bet is worthless, even though it looked profitable for awhile?
Johnny B said:
right on your second part. The key is timing the market. Some of them are going to move back to -115 and you live with it but you will get good enough for feel. Sometimes it is smart to wait a few extra seconds too get a feel where the number is heading. This is the #1 reason that having your money at square books is the most important thing in here.
Iceman said:
OK, thanks Ice, that's what I figured.
If I could only have 1 book (I'm somewhat embarrassed to admit that i don't have a big enough bankroll to spread between 5+ shops) what should it be? SIA would be my guess. Do you or anyone know if I can do book to book from WSEX to SIA or how should I transfer the money now that Neteller is down and I don't feel comfortable transferring straight from my checking account to a book at this point with the current offshore situation.
Also, wht % of your bankroll do you put on these games and since you have said in the past that you're very conservative, what would you say is the highest percentage of bankroll one should put on each game (probably higher than what you put on each of yours)?
Thanks again Ice, always apprecaite the help, looking forward to tomorrow night since you said you'd be on.
Johnny B said:OK, thanks Ice, that's what I figured.
If I could only have 1 book (I'm somewhat embarrassed to admit that i don't have a big enough bankroll to spread between 5+ shops) what should it be? SIA would be my guess. Do you or anyone know if I can do book to book from WSEX to SIA or how should I transfer the money now that Neteller is down and I don't feel comfortable transferring straight from my checking account to a book at this point with the current offshore situation.
Also, wht % of your bankroll do you put on these games and since you have said in the past that you're very conservative, what would you say is the highest percentage of bankroll one should put on each game (probably higher than what you put on each of yours)?
Thanks again Ice, always apprecaite the help, looking forward to tomorrow night since you said you'd be on.
SIA would be first choice for you. I am not in there right now. In my heyday ( a month ago) I was in 12+ books at a time. Will be hard to do with just 1 book but if it is going to be 1 than SIA would be choice.
I beleieve in ton of plays at small amounts. I was betting .5% of bankroll ($100 out of 20k) but 30 plays a nite. This gives me 200 units. I don't like to sweat and I haven't in 1 year and no reaon to when betting less than 1% of bankroll. If each bet has an edge than you will win and the luck factor slowly goes out the window. My advice to bet steam the rest of this year and slowly worry about picking up the rest of this on how to do this later espicially when the offshore industry is a little more stable. Good uck!!!
