PyRo CaPPer said:
If I had to make an educated guess.....I was home all day and followed the lines....these all moved prior to tip:
UMASS got hit prior to tip.....WINNER
KENTUCKY got hit prioor to tip...WINNER
LSU got hit prior to tip......WINNER
WVU UNDER got hit prior to tip....WINNER
S ALABAMA OVER ...WINNER
LSU OVER.....loser
G TECH OVER....loser
Duke UNDER....loser
UCLA OVER ....WINNER
FF...............WINNER
Not sure what is steam and what isnt but 7-3 isnt bad
I think its more than just moving a half point...I would say at least a full point swing, as well as the volume of wagers...LSU, DUKE, UCLA, those games all got about 300,00 wagers that ive seen, compared to the small games that i posted which got less than 8,000 plays wagers....
PYRO:
I had Fairfield (ot got steammed) and N.Texas
if you have a line service you will see a game get hit at the same time that is the defintion of steam. You went a little in depth. Just compare the number you can get to what Pinny and a few of the top books have curretnly. If you can't get the bad numnber (and most likely you can't if you wait to long) than bet it at the sqaure out.
GOLD64:
no don't be fooled by the vig. adjust it and find the right number at the normal juice. Your examle is a no play. Other sharp books Cris, cascade, Greek, etc... Whatever the consenus number is what you can use.
ACE IN THE HOLE:
UCLA total was a true steam play and wat I was explaining to the newer posters/bettors on what to bet if they could find. I bet that seconds after it steammed. Mon-Fri I have a pattern. I will start looking at the lines around 2pm EST and look at some square books for off numbers esp in 1st halfs as the books maybe sleeping on some of these numbers, I only for about 20 minutes or so.
95% of my bets are made for 6pm est and on and what I would advise most to do. 2 ways to bet. 1) follow fast moving steam against locals or slow moving books, you must be quick and have a line service, expirence helps also and 2) find some dogs or just overall wagers that are half point off and 1 point or more off totals or favorites. There are a ton of examples of this and it is work but just compare lines from Pinny to sqaure book looking for discrepancies/value. I came across this when scalping/middling and realizing that I was beating the bad books all the time and losing to Pinny alot more than beating them. Why give back and make bad bets with zero edge at Pinny. Works well at halftimes also but don't forget it is alot of screen watching.
my point of the thread was to just follow steam for a beginner it is probably easiest way to learn and with CBB hoops the best.
I had Fairfield (ot got steammed) and N.Texas
if you have a line service you will see a game get hit at the same time that is the defintion of steam. You went a little in depth. Just compare the number you can get to what Pinny and a few of the top books have curretnly. If you can't get the bad numnber (and most likely you can't if you wait to long) than bet it at the sqaure out.
GOLD64:
no don't be fooled by the vig. adjust it and find the right number at the normal juice. Your examle is a no play. Other sharp books Cris, cascade, Greek, etc... Whatever the consenus number is what you can use.
ACE IN THE HOLE:
UCLA total was a true steam play and wat I was explaining to the newer posters/bettors on what to bet if they could find. I bet that seconds after it steammed. Mon-Fri I have a pattern. I will start looking at the lines around 2pm EST and look at some square books for off numbers esp in 1st halfs as the books maybe sleeping on some of these numbers, I only for about 20 minutes or so.
95% of my bets are made for 6pm est and on and what I would advise most to do. 2 ways to bet. 1) follow fast moving steam against locals or slow moving books, you must be quick and have a line service, expirence helps also and 2) find some dogs or just overall wagers that are half point off and 1 point or more off totals or favorites. There are a ton of examples of this and it is work but just compare lines from Pinny to sqaure book looking for discrepancies/value. I came across this when scalping/middling and realizing that I was beating the bad books all the time and losing to Pinny alot more than beating them. Why give back and make bad bets with zero edge at Pinny. Works well at halftimes also but don't forget it is alot of screen watching.
my point of the thread was to just follow steam for a beginner it is probably easiest way to learn and with CBB hoops the best.
Tom Brady#1 said:
I will state like I did before. I did this back in December and went 14-6 it is in a thread. I have no problem doing this but what point does it prove. I could go 20-30 or 30-20 still will prove NOTHING. Just ask anyone else that does this. If you want to learn attempt to middle/scalp with yourself and you will see where you are winning at. It is VERY time consuming. Halftimes are the BIGGEST goldmines probably of them all and who wants to post them every minute. I am not selling anything. Just trying to help. this is the 2 problems with it:
1) people question where and when you made the play. When I tell you I bet a game with a local or an obscure book that was slow to move I do not feel like arguring with anyone. I sure don't feel like running over to a thread every 3 minutes to post a play then to have someone question it which is always bound to happen. At with halftimes this would be a huge pain in the ass. The bets are not hard to find.
2) anyone 2 people can literally do this and come up with alot of non-steam plays that are not the same. Some games can and do offer 2 great bets on the OPPOSITE side. Not alot but can happen. I will tell you the same thing I tell my buddy. I am not a capper anymore I am a bettor and I honestly barely care if my bets win or lose indiviaully. The big picture is all I care about and if I make good solid wagers I should win.
For example here is what I played today: not sure if this helps:
under 208.5 Phoenix
Depaul +5.5 (2X)
San Antonio -4 2nd half
under 99.5 SA 2nd half
Stanford +5 (1.5X)
Kentucky -8
over 124.5 stanford (2x)
under 145 Georgia Tech
Fairfield pk
N.Texas +6.5
under 97.5 SA 1st half
over 102 Milwaukee 1st half
under 101 Boston 1st half
LA Clippers +2.5
this was a very sloewday because of the total games and I chose to not bet 2nd half in NBA. The best way to prove this is too try and middle and scalp, It will cost you nothing and will prove the point or go back and look at the steam playf from Gand J line service and see what there record is.
Saturday bets:
Arkansas +5
Wisc Gb +2
Drexel -3
New Orleans +4
Pittsburgh -14.5
Miss -12.5
Wake +14
Colorado +27 (2X)
Indiana St +14.5 (2x)
GW -1.5
under 151 Wash (2X)
under 152 ND
George Mason -10.5
Loyola -1.5
AF +2.5
UNLV -12.5
Sjsu +7.5 and +8
Drake +2.5
Memphis -3.5
Witchtia St pk (2X)
WM -7
Temple -4.5
WKY -9
once again chose to say away from 2nd halves pissed off gf
Arkansas +5
Wisc Gb +2
Drexel -3
New Orleans +4
Pittsburgh -14.5
Miss -12.5
Wake +14
Colorado +27 (2X)
Indiana St +14.5 (2x)
GW -1.5
under 151 Wash (2X)
under 152 ND
George Mason -10.5
Loyola -1.5
AF +2.5
UNLV -12.5
Sjsu +7.5 and +8
Drake +2.5
Memphis -3.5
Witchtia St pk (2X)
WM -7
Temple -4.5
WKY -9
once again chose to say away from 2nd halves pissed off gf
Iceman said:
First of all sorry for the inconvenience. After reading above I have a zillion questions. Many of them might be my fault. There is no way you clarified everything you say and it is vague and ambiguous at best. Not saying it is not true but not all black and white for sure. How does middling and scalping as you suggest have to do with steam? How does halftimes relate to this steam? I do not know that line service or have one. you say "anyone 2 people can literally do this and come up with alot of non-steam plays that are not the same"...huh? I have no clue what you are talking about. It could be me but no way is above clear and concise by 5 miles. Who else does this? WHen I have seen steam bettors in the past they all have not done that well or much better than anyone else. I do not remember anyone at FP talking like this either. THanks.
PyRo CaPPer said:
I use the cheap version of Don Best. May go to G and J but scared of change. THIS IS THE KEY: YOU MUST HAVE YOUR MONEY IN SLOWER MOVING BOOKS. Without them may struggle this is why halftimes are so much easier. Use Pinny dynamic lines feature also, red screen is huge. Fiind a local and you beat him but fly under the radar.
Tom Brady#1 said:
this is exactly where I learned this from. The fezzdaq is just that. Beat ROUGE numbers. That is all he does. Cutter preaches just that. Beat the closing line. Now how you get there is your choice, find value or follow steam but beat the closing line. Fezziks says the best way to win is to bet into non widely availbile numbers.
When the numer you bet at a square book is the same as a Pinny number that is listed at -120 then you are getting a 10 cent edge on your bet. Do you follow? Pinny show +8 -120 so they most likely are +7.5 -110 and you find a +8-110 at square book then bet it at square book. You have a 10 cent edge.
I am saying when you scalp/middle a game you will generally bet a team at sharp book and the opposite bet/team at the slower book.
When you get booted from a book it is for beating them too line moves. That tells you line moves win.
Ask Fish who is professional scalper and he says he has lost around 100k lifetime on the pinnacle side when scalping. Why bet the Pinny side if you are losing to that side.
Why do guys beat SIA all the time because they are slow to move and have rouge type numbers.
50% of the favs win versus the closing number and 50% f the dogs win and now you are getting a extra point by beating them to number on most of your bets than your win pct will go way up.
You are not an inconvience at all. Not trying to sound like a know it all. Just giving you the best examples that I learned from and made the most sense to me. Hope this helps.
Tom Brady#1 said:
It depends on the half point and by using Pinny you can tell which way it is going. What you want to do is get a -120 line with Pinny drop down on the same number You in essence are getting 10 cents value.
I don't want to get to complicated so I put half point but it is actually between a half point and a point and that is how I find it. If is SCALPABLE with Pinny number it is a good bet.
You have the same edge as the bookie has on his clients. 10 cents. In other words when you bet Minnesota +7 at SIA and +7 on the drop down at Piny is -120 you are getting a -120 pinny wager for -110 at square book on the same number. That wins. Hope I am explaining this good. Not what this thread was meant to be about.
Yea, i would say a 1 point minimum is the key, and then hit the soft numbers....Half point moves occur all the time, can be influenced by the public, etc...I have a soft local that I can take advantage of as well..
Do you think that using SportsInsights movements, such as showing Pinny;s opening number, and where pinny closes at is the right way to look at this? Also, being that it is on a delay, it should not matter, because that is the spread the game is going out on right?
Do you think that using SportsInsights movements, such as showing Pinny;s opening number, and where pinny closes at is the right way to look at this? Also, being that it is on a delay, it should not matter, because that is the spread the game is going out on right?
Iceman said:
This makes more sense. Unfortuneately it is not easy getting non widely available numbers at this point for sure without a lot if risk if you know what I mean. Yes, if the line closes and you have better numbers from square or slow books then yes you will win at 55% or so. Makes total sense. Just when I start to learn on scalping and middling it is much harder to do. I think what I have seen (and why I am skeptical) is that if you bet the line moves at Pinny, you will not win...you need to get better numbers at other books (what you are saying). There are people that can handicapp too and win but that is not what this is about here. I get you. I am totally just learning on this aspect..probably too late but you never now in thefuture. What about the line service? What does that show you and how? Thanks.
