Ok ICE..... Thanks so far, but let me give you some hypotheticals then you can explain to me if you move on the game or not and to which side.
Hypothetical #1
** OVERNIGHT LINE on say PITT is -14.5
** Line jumps to Pitt -15.5 about 1PM & game is at 4PM. (Do you jump on this or wait?)
** At 3:30 PM line falls back to Pitt -15 and closes at this.
DID THIS GAME GET STEAMED AND WAS IT A PLAY?
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Hypothetical #2
** 2nd half line of Duke game is Duke -4 and 72.
** Line quickly goes to Duke -5 then jumps again to Duke -5.5.
DO YOU PLAY IT STILL AT 5.5? ASSUMING YOUR TAKING DUKE, right?
Same situation, but lets say Duke-4 goes to -130.........Do you jump on Duke -4 at another book for -110 or is this a pass or do you play the opponent +4?
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Also, when does the steam usually happen in NCAABB? At 2PM or at 6:30PM? If a line bounces at 2PM and you wait until after 6PM to play how are you getting the bad line then as most if not all books have already adjusted.
After 6PM when the tout plays are relased, I think it would be too hard to tell what plays are being steamed and what plays are being hit by squares buying tout services. PLaying the amount of games you do is very dangerous if somehow this system goes in the tank, no? I know for CFB Phil Steeles play moved lines by 3 or 4 points in some instances. When a line moves that much I'd have to think the value was with the other team....I know this would be a prime play for a "middler"
What site do you guys use to get these numbers of how many people are on which side? I know cover s, wager line, sportsbook, etc.... all have numbers but I dont feel they are an accurate representation as to what is going on......especially FOR FREE!
Hypothetical #1
** OVERNIGHT LINE on say PITT is -14.5
** Line jumps to Pitt -15.5 about 1PM & game is at 4PM. (Do you jump on this or wait?)
** At 3:30 PM line falls back to Pitt -15 and closes at this.
DID THIS GAME GET STEAMED AND WAS IT A PLAY?
____________________________________________
Hypothetical #2
** 2nd half line of Duke game is Duke -4 and 72.
** Line quickly goes to Duke -5 then jumps again to Duke -5.5.
DO YOU PLAY IT STILL AT 5.5? ASSUMING YOUR TAKING DUKE, right?
Same situation, but lets say Duke-4 goes to -130.........Do you jump on Duke -4 at another book for -110 or is this a pass or do you play the opponent +4?
_____________________________________________
Also, when does the steam usually happen in NCAABB? At 2PM or at 6:30PM? If a line bounces at 2PM and you wait until after 6PM to play how are you getting the bad line then as most if not all books have already adjusted.
After 6PM when the tout plays are relased, I think it would be too hard to tell what plays are being steamed and what plays are being hit by squares buying tout services. PLaying the amount of games you do is very dangerous if somehow this system goes in the tank, no? I know for CFB Phil Steeles play moved lines by 3 or 4 points in some instances. When a line moves that much I'd have to think the value was with the other team....I know this would be a prime play for a "middler"
What site do you guys use to get these numbers of how many people are on which side? I know cover s, wager line, sportsbook, etc.... all have numbers but I dont feel they are an accurate representation as to what is going on......especially FOR FREE!
Iceman said:
You explained it so I can understand it. It would take practive and effort too...lots of it.
Fezzik handicapps football in the NFL and does well. I do not think this works for NFL, a different animal. SO he does and can handicapp. Cutter on the other hand could not handicapp very much at all.
well said.Tom Brady#1 said:
Ice i think is trying to play like cutter and say its easy money. Its not .
First problem, you already touched on, how to get these numbers after they already moved? Anybody dealing stale numbers now, you have to worry about getting paid and how long they will be in bussines.
you say steam plays are the strongest plays and you also say .5 pt edge on dogs is enough to make a WINNERIceman said:
I have a very CBB good database, nearly 3 years
I have over 1700 underdogs that were steam plays(STRONGEST dog plays) that were posted on DB
877-696 ats vs steam line
811-776 ats vs closing line
833-742 ats vs closing line+.5
867-711 ats vs closing line+1
do the math
closing line +.5 53%
closing line +1 55%
steam 56%
thanks my point exactly. Thanks for the info.
a -120 line is between a half point and a point edge and my trigger point. Not trying to get too complicated for others so I said half point which will breakeven if this is the absolute worse you do so lets call it a .75 point if that makes you happy. This works in all sports a -120 line, a scalpable line with pinny wins. Most people don't undertsand the whole -120 Pinny thing, The thread was how much steam has won in CBB. Thanks needed the extra confidence and you data proved how valuable betting steam can be.
closing line +1 55%
steam 56%
thanks my point exactly. Thanks for the info.
a -120 line is between a half point and a point edge and my trigger point. Not trying to get too complicated for others so I said half point which will breakeven if this is the absolute worse you do so lets call it a .75 point if that makes you happy. This works in all sports a -120 line, a scalpable line with pinny wins. Most people don't undertsand the whole -120 Pinny thing, The thread was how much steam has won in CBB. Thanks needed the extra confidence and you data proved how valuable betting steam can be.
Iceman said:
Sorry kid, I have bad news
You still dont get it
53% ~only 17 units
17 units of betting the strongest plays with only .5pt over 3 years. Do you think you can live off that?
Thats the result of the STRONGEST dog plays(steam plays) over three years
You wont last offshore if you keep betting these plays
also, dont forget I gave you the strongest plays
Now, if you bet every CBB dog with ONLY .5pt edge, every dog thats not steam then
your record would be 4123-3863 ats...What do you think now??
with 1pt edge it would be 4272-3681 ats
Do the math?
I usually dont like to post useful info here but you are a good kid
ACE IN THE HOLE said:
hypothetical #1 - a toughie must be Sats game. If it is a steam move and it is if it is moving 1 point at a time then yes I take -14.5 and hope it don't go back towards 15 but it happens. Won't happen as much if it is a 6pm est game. Still a breakeven typ bet and it won't kill you long run but this is still an ok play and the rule you must follow. It is a steam play.
hypo #2- Duke -4 is the anwwer. if it goes to -4-130 then Duke -4.5 is okay also but rememeber the key is to get these at a book that are offering them at -110. DO NOT BET -4 -130. -4 -110 is the bet so is -4.5 -110 if it is -4 -130 at Pinny.
Steam is easiet to find/watch at a line service when screen turns all the same color or how ever they choose to show it.
Damn this thread has exploded....thanks for fucking up my gold mine ICE:lol:
I'd like to add a few points:
1) I have found that moves of 1.5-3 points are best. I'd guess 75% of those are hitting. When a team moves from a FAV to A DOG are gold. Happened few days ago with Villanova...went from +1 to -1 and they crushed em.
2) Moves of 1 point cash too, provided the public is not heavily on the team that the line is moving towards. If 80% of peeps are on UCLA and line has gone from -4 to -5 it's likely the pub $$ moving the line. Thespread.com excellent and accurate tool showing public $ percentages.
3) Line moves of less than 1 point are usually meaningless.
4) Make sure there is not a significant injury causingt the line to move.
5. I use the Rx's own live line screen and it works FANTASTIC for this...I look at it all day long:
http://lines.therx.com/livelines/odds/lines.jsp?sport=nba&period=0
I'd like to add a few points:
1) I have found that moves of 1.5-3 points are best. I'd guess 75% of those are hitting. When a team moves from a FAV to A DOG are gold. Happened few days ago with Villanova...went from +1 to -1 and they crushed em.
2) Moves of 1 point cash too, provided the public is not heavily on the team that the line is moving towards. If 80% of peeps are on UCLA and line has gone from -4 to -5 it's likely the pub $$ moving the line. Thespread.com excellent and accurate tool showing public $ percentages.
3) Line moves of less than 1 point are usually meaningless.
4) Make sure there is not a significant injury causingt the line to move.
5. I use the Rx's own live line screen and it works FANTASTIC for this...I look at it all day long:
http://lines.therx.com/livelines/odds/lines.jsp?sport=nba&period=0
Scorpion63 said:
FORGET the half point thing it was to help people that didn't understand a scalpable line was and I am not sure you know what one is. It equates to .75. Hitting 55% of alot of plays will make someone rich REALLY fast!! Faster than almost any form of investing out there. You will hard pressed to find 1 capper win at 55%.
than explain my 55% win pct on using this. Take it or leave it. I will say it again BET THE BAD SIDE OF A SCALPABLE LINE OR THE BAD SIDE OF A MIDDLE and you will win and win big.
If I was wrong than why do they boot guys ot for beating books to line moves? Please answer
Research the Pinny lean and why everyone that uses it WINS? Please answer
Why have all scalpers/middlers I know beat square books and lost there ass to PINNY (the sharp book)? Please answer
Why is does anyone that has a clue ALWAYS beat SQUARE books like one of the sponsors here and most guys are kicked out of there? Please answer
Would love to hear your answers. You are the one with the info and steam wins and wins BIG in CBB and once again thanks for supporting my statement about that.
One more thing, and more importantly. I have found it is very difficult to get on these moves, cause the books are watching the DB screen too....but even when I'm late the the picks usually cash.
A syndicate is betting $25K because they think it's a strong play...couple points normally don't matter
A syndicate is betting $25K because they think it's a strong play...couple points normally don't matter
thejdog said:
something I learned a LONG time ago is most people will not work hard enough to do this. I have had a few guys ask me to help them with this and most don't have the work ethic of sitting for hours nightly in front of the computer doing this. It is work. People think they can get on the computer for 5 minutes, make a few bets and bingo watch the money roll in. There is no reason to worry 99% of the people don't have the time, patience, energy and money to see this thru for more than a few days.
