Exbookie School On My Line For The Nfl Doing It On Paper!!!!

[tigerwho83]

QOH or ACE ACE Please grade my first team of the MYLINE system Thanks. This 2010 Pre-Season

St. Luis Rams Pre-Season weeks 3 & 4

Wk. Line Line Off Total line off Time TotalTime Pen Running TO's Running Score ATS w/l
Pw#3 +8 +9 +9 +14 +14 79 1 stl 36-35 w
Pw#4 -3 +3 +12 +5 +19 70(149) 1(2) stl 27-21 w

Now I will Avg the 2 weeks together using 75% week 3 & 25% week 4

w#3 @ 75% 6.75 10.75 59.25 .75
w#4 @ 25% .75 1.25 17.50 .25
Add together = 7.5 11.75 76.75 1

FINAL Stats +7.5 +12 77yds 1

Line Off = +7.5
Time = +12
Penalty = 77yds
Turn O = 1

Does this look correct to you? I think got it right on!

 

[ACE-ACE]

Team............lineoff.....time.....pent.....to

arizona...........8...........1.2..........44.......1
atlanta..........8.4.........-2...........24....... 2
baltimore.......6.5.........1.5..........59.......1
buffalo..........10..........-.5..........67.......1
carolina.........1.5.........+.5.........25.......1
chicago..........-8...........-2..........16.......2
cincinnati......-10..........2.9.........116.....2
cleveland......-2.5.........-1.9.........44......3
dallas...........-7............-3.4.........40......2
denver...........10............+.4..........66......3
detroit..........4.............1.3..........63.......1
green bay.......10............6.3..........29.......1
houston.........6.............4.9..........55.......1
indianapolis...-10..........-5.6.........95.......3
jacksonville...2.5..........6.4..........59.......2
kansas city....-.5...........-1.2.........44......2
miami..............-10..........1.6..........67.......1
minnesota......5.5...........3.9..........43.......3
new england...-7...........-11.2.........62......1
new orleans...2..............0............91.......1
new giants.....-7.5..........-2...........33.......1
new york jets..-6.5.........2............50.......4
oakland...........-4............-.9..........77.......0
philadelphia....-1............-1.6.........30.......1
pittsburgh......-10..........1.5...........82.......2
san diego........10...........-.8...........34........3
san francisco..4............2.4...........83.......1
seattle............-4.5........-6.9.........63........1
st.louis...........7.5.........11.7..........77.......1
tampa bay.........0...........-7.5..........53.......1
tennessee.........-5............0............39.......3
washington......6.5.........-.7...........64........1

hope this works for the start of the season

Your numbers are better than my numbers...I round up or down....great job

 

[phantom888]

For week 1 just using the preseason numbers, here is what I have.
Don't think they mean to much, but have to have something to go on.

Minnesota..........+.94
Carolina.............+1.48
Buffalo..............+1.58
Atlanta.............+1.72
Detroit..............+1.72
Cincinnati..........+1.65
Cleveland..........+.63
Jacksonville........+.85
Houston............+4.76
Tennessee.........+.54
Green Bay..........+2.69
San Francisco.....+2.51
St.Louis.............+1.72
Washington........+1.98
Baltimore...........+2.11
San Diego..........+.9

Match these up with the lines and see what kind of value you get.
Right now I have Carolina value 8.5 Detroit value 8
Cincinnati value 6.5 houston value 7 St.Louis value 6

Good luck everybody

Excellent work Mr. Pete!!!

goodluck!!

 

[Bruno2]

Ace,

If you have a team that is line off 1st week -14 and Line off 2nd +6 would that be a Total Line off of -8? Or do I put the stop of -10/+10 on week 1 then +6 = -4?

Question 2 : Am I supposed to take 75% of week 3 line Off and add to 25% week 4?

Thanks for your help.

 

[ACE-ACE]

[QUOTE=Bruno

If you have a team that is line off 1st week -14 and Line off 2nd +6 would that be a Total Line off of -8?.......THIS IS THE WAY

Question 2 : Am I supposed to take 75% of week 3 line Off and add to 25% week 4?....YES

 

[Riv34]

does anyone have an excel sheet setup? Doing it all on paper is rough lol

tia.riv

 

[mike52683]

does anyone have an excel sheet setup? Doing it all on paper is rough lol

tia.riv

An Excel sheet would be great! I tried on my own but didn't have much success! Thanks all for sharing

 

[Bruno2]

Got IT! Thanks

 

[jasmine]

Team............lineoff.....time.....pent.....to

arizona...........8...........1.2..........44.......1
atlanta..........8.4.........-2...........24....... 2
baltimore.......6.5.........1.5..........59.......1
buffalo..........10..........-.5..........67.......1
carolina.........1.5.........+.5.........25.......1
chicago..........-8...........-2..........16.......2
cincinnati......-10..........2.9.........116.....2
cleveland......-2.5.........-1.9.........44......3
dallas...........-7............-3.4.........40......2
denver...........10............+.4..........66......3
detroit..........4.............1.3..........63.......1
green bay.......10............6.3..........29.......1
houston.........6.............4.9..........55.......1
indianapolis...-10..........-5.6.........95.......3
jacksonville...2.5..........6.4..........59.......2
kansas city....-.5...........-1.2.........44......2
miami..............-10..........1.6..........67.......1
minnesota......5.5...........3.9..........43.......3
new england...-7...........-11.2.........62......1
new orleans...2..............0............91.......1
new giants.....-7.5..........-2...........33.......1
new york jets..-6.5.........2............50.......4
oakland...........-4............-.9..........77.......0
philadelphia....-1............-1.6.........30.......1
pittsburgh......-10..........1.5...........82.......2
san diego........10...........-.8...........34........3
san francisco..4............2.4...........83.......1
seattle............-4.5........-6.9.........63........1
st.louis...........7.5.........11.7..........77.......1
tampa bay.........0...........-7.5..........53.......1
tennessee.........-5............0............39.......3
washington......6.5.........-.7...........64........1

hope this works for the start of the season

Hello Pete, where do you get your stats from?, my numbers are very close with the exception of a few that are very different depending what line is used opening or closing etc what site is used for stats some will vary on that I think on average everyone doing my line numbers will be close to each other and not all of them will be matched number for number, what's your input QOH........ in preseason I recall a team opened as an underdog and ended up being the favorite by game time Thx

 

[tigerwho83]

My First Team done by hand. Is this correct?

QOH or ACE ACE Please grade my first team of the MYLINE system Thanks. This 2010 Pre-Season

St. Luis Rams Pre-Season weeks 3 & 4

Wk. Line Line Off Total line off Time Tl time Pen Run TO's Run Score & ATS w/l
Pw#3..+8........+9............ +9........+14.....+14.........79...........1........stl 36-35 w
Pw#4..-3.........+3............+12.......+5.......+19......70(149)......1(2)....stl 27-21 w

Now I will Avg the 2 weeks together using 75% week 3 & 25% week 4

w#3 @ 75%.{6.75}...................{10.75}............{59.25}......**.75}
w#4 @ 25%,,,,,.75........................1.25................17.50..........25
Add together = 7.5......................11.75................76.75...........1

FINAL Stats....+7.5.......................+12..................77yds..........1

Line Off = +7.5
Time = +12
Penalty = 77yds
Turn O = 1

Does this look correct to you? I think got it right on!

 

[pickempete]

Hello Pete, where do you get your stats from?, my numbers are very close with the exception of a few that are very different depending what line is used opening or closing etc what site is used for stats some will vary on that I think on average everyone doing my line numbers will be close to each other and not all of them will be matched number for number, what's your input QOH........ in preseason I recall a team opened as an underdog and ended up being the favorite by game time Thx

jasmine, I got my stats from espn sports. I get my lines from Pinnacle. Go to their site or use donbest.com. I have been using the lines a day before the game. The only stat i round off to the nearest tenth is the time of possession. If a team has time of 32:26 I would take the 26 and divide by 60 and that would be .43 then the time would be +2.4 for that team. Hope this helps you out.

 

[EaglesFan+]

I ran this on sportsdatabase.com , using the past 5 games as the data...

(((tS(ats margin,N=5)-oS(ats margin,N=5))/-10-(tS(time of possession,N=5)-oS(time of possession,N=5)+(tS(penalties,N=5)-oS(penalties,N=5)/100)+(tS(turnovers,N=5)-oS(turnovers,N=5))/3)))<(line-20)

that was the SDQL query, if anyone else knows the site or queries they can double check me

these were the results

you can change the # of previous games it gathers from by replacing N=5 with N=X where X = #s of back games to gather data from...

no comments by anyone?

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

no comments by anyone?

Yes, SDQL is the bomb... Been real busy but I have your post on my radar. Nice work! Have not had time to play with it yet but I will.

 

[TheSheriff]

FOR THOSE THAT WANT TO KNOW HOW "MY LINE" WORKS
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->ITS BASE ON FOUR THING
1..LINE-OFF
2..TIME
3..PENALTIES
4..TURN OVER ONLY BY THE TEAM

LINE-OFF
THE DIFF BETWEEN WHAT THE ODDS MAKER GIVE AND WHAT REALLY HAPPENS

LET'S TAKE(LAST WEEK GAME BETWEEN GB AND ATL....

THE LINE WAS ATL-9.....WHAT HAPPEN WAS GB WON BY 8+THE LINE9=17
"THE LINE WAS OFF 17 POINTS
THIS HAPPENS EACH WEEK AND EACH GAME

SO YOU GIVE GB A +17 IN THEIR WEEK AND YOU GIVE ATL -17 IN THEIR WEEK.....YOU DO THIS EVERY WEEK

THIS IS ATL............TOTAL

PRESEASON +10
WK1............+ 6........+16
WK2............-2..........+14
WK3............+10.......+24
WK4............+14.......+38
WK5...........-6...........+32
WK6...........-3...........+29
WK7...........+6...........+35
WK8...........BYE
WK9............+5.........+40
WK10..........-17........+23

GB ....DOING THE SAME THING TO THEM IS A +44

SO YOU FIND THE DIFF/ +44 +23 = 21 FOR GB(HIGHEST NUMBER GETS THE POINTS)....THAN YOU DIV BY 10= 2.1 POINT FOR GB (ONE RULE DIFF....IF ITS OVER 50 POINTS /DIFF YOU DIV IT IN HALF...THAN DIV IT BY 100)

THAT MEAN BASE ONLY ON "LINE-OFF G.B IS FAV BY 2.1 POINTS



TIME

IF ONE TEAM HAS 32 MIN THAT THE O-LINE STAYS ON THE FIELD THEY HAVE A +2.....THE OTHER TEAM HAS A -2

DO THAT EACH WEEK......AS OF WEEK 10 GB IS +6 VS ATL+3=3 FOR GB DIV BY 5=.6 FOR GB

ADD THAT TO LINE-OFF 2.1 + .6 = 2.7 THATS GB IS FAV BY WITH JUST TWO OF THE 4 THING!!!!


PENALTIES

THIS ONE IS EASY

ATL HAS 615 YDS VS GB 618 YDS =3 FOR ATL(LESS IS BETTER HERE)
NOW YOU DIV THAT BY 100 =0 IN THIS CASE(IF IT WAS 150YDS DIFF...IT WOULD MEAN A 1 1/2 FOR ATL....BUT ITS NOT)


TURN OVERS

GB AFTER WEEK 10 HAS 22 VS ATL THAT HAS 15 = 7 FOR ATL(LESS IS BETTER HERE) YOU DIV THAT BY 3 =2.3 FOR ATL

SO

IF THIS GAME WAS PLAYED THIS WEEK (WEEK 11)

YOU WOULD

LINE-OFF G.B 2.1
TIME G.B 0.6
PEN.............EV
T/O.........ATL 2.3

DO THE MATH AND YOU GET GB FAV BY .4.....OR ROUND UP OR DOWN

GB -1/2.....IF THEY PLAY IN GB GB WOULD BE -1......IF THEY PLAY AT ATL IT WOULD BE A PK GAME


THIS IS HOW I GET "MY LINE"......I HAVE WORK ON THIS FOR OVER 15 YEARS....MOST OF THE TIME 80% THE LINE IS RIGHT ON BY 1-2 POINTS.....THE ONES THAT ARE 6 POINTS OR MORE I LOOK AT CLOSER

THIS ONLY TELL YOU WHERE THE MOST VALUE IS....YOU STILL HAVE TO DO THE OTHER CAPPING.....MATCH UP....RY....PY....GIVEWAY...TAKEWAY....D-LINE.... O-LINE....SO ON ...ECT....

SOME OF YOU WANTED TO KNOW HOW I GET IT SO LET THE ????? BEGAIN.....THIS IS NOT THAT HARD!!!!

THE LAST 11YEARS I HAVE DONE THIS I WON 9 YEARS AND LOST 2

1998 I LOST -$35,555.00.....IN 2001 I LOST $14,105.00... THE OTHER WINNING YEARS WAS BETWEEN $6500 TO $56,000
56K WAS IN 2002...

LAST YEAR ONE OF THE POSTER AT THERX,WORK WITH ME TO PUT THIS ON A SPEADSHEET.. IT TOOK A FEW MO'S FOR THIS TO WORK FOR HIM.... DONT ASK THEM FOR ONE!!!! THIS IS ABOUT DOING IT ON PAPER!!!!

MY HOPE IS TO TEACH THIS SO YOU DONT NEED ME ANY MORE....I'M OVER 50 YEARS OLD AND STILL HAVE 30 MORE GOOD YEARS AHEAD OF ME.....


WHY DID YOU DO IT THIS WAY...
THIS DONT WORK WITH "TIME" OR "LINE-OFF"....OR EVEN PENALTIES???

I HAVE ADJUSTED THIS OVER AND OVER TO COME UP WITH FORMULA

THIS THREAD IS ONLY FOR PLAYERS THAT WANT TO KNOW HOW IT WORKS


ACE-ACE
<!-- / message -->

Ace,

Sorry but I have tried to re-cap reading most of these posts. But help me out a little....What do you use the my line for?

Thanks, Doug

 

[jasmine]

my play today will be on Greenbay Packers -3 @) :grandmais

 

[mike52683]

I'm trying to figure out where to go next with my spreadsheet...any input is greatly appreciated

Example:


CIN
Lineoff: -10
Time: 2.9
Penalties: 116
T/O: 2

NE
Lineoff: -7
Time: -11.2
Penalties: 62
T/O: 1

What do from here? I believe my spreadsheet is calculating these number correctly but I just am not following when it comes to the next step.

Thanks.

Mike

 

[ACE-ACE]

I'm in the season now...no time to break every part down...queen of hearts will help when she has time

 

[mike52683]

I completely understand Ace....thanks.

Queen of Hearts, whenever you get time your input is much appreciated...I know you are busy

Thanks.

Mike

 

[ACE-ACE]

the last of the 99 system plays this week

it picks

Dal

 

[OpW]

i almost didnt played Dal because i was checking the ex bookie wants to help thread