Exbookie School On My Line For The Nfl Doing It On Paper!!!!

[Bruno2]

QOH,

Week 3 the colts were a 4 point dog and lost by 31 points, is the line off for this game -35? If so the next week colts are +6.5 and only lose by 2 = +4.5 add these two together -30.5 Total line off reduced to -10 (which is the stop Ace uses on Total Line off)? This 10 stop is only used to get started in week 1, correct? As we go along our numbers will be allowed to go past the 10 number?

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

QOH,

Week 3 the colts were a 4 point dog and lost by 31 points, is the line off for this game -35? If so the next week colts are +6.5 and only lose by 2 = +4.5 add these two together -30.5 Total line off reduced to -10 (which is the stop Ace uses on Total Line off)? This 10 stop is only used to get started in week 1, correct? As we go along our numbers will be allowed to go past the 10 number?

BINGO ....very sharp work for day 1 . you got it .

the only exception to all the rules after week 1 is this ( in red ):

LINE-OFF
THE DIFF BETWEEN WHAT THE ODDS MAKER GIVE AND WHAT REALLY HAPPENS

LET'S TAKE(LAST WEEK GAME BETWEEN GB AND ATL....

THE LINE WAS ATL-9.....WHAT HAPPEN WAS GB WON BY 8+THE LINE9=17
"THE LINE WAS OFF 17 POINTS
THIS HAPPENS EACH WEEK AND EACH GAME

SO YOU GIVE GB A +17 IN THEIR WEEK AND YOU GIVE ATL -17 IN THEIR WEEK.....YOU DO THIS EVERY WEEK

THIS IS ATL............TOTAL

PRESEASON +10
WK1............+ 6........+16
WK2............-2..........+14
WK3............+10.......+24
WK4............+14.......+38
WK5...........-6...........+32
WK6...........-3...........+29
WK7...........+6...........+35
WK8...........BYE
WK9............+5.........+40
WK10..........-17........+23

GB ....DOING THE SAME THING TO THEM IS A +44

SO YOU FIND THE DIFF/ +44 +23 = 21 FOR GB(HIGHEST NUMBER GETS THE POINTS)....THAN YOU DIV BY 10= 2.1 POINT FOR GB (ONE RULE DIFF....IF ITS OVER 50 POINTS /DIFF YOU DIV IT IN HALF...THAN DIV IT BY 10)


refer to post # 225 & 227 right around there talks about this and in post 1 -25 ...

your doing good .

looking forward to seeing who is still doing this by week 4 ...


**Ill tell you something to think about while doing your sheets:

I swear to all of you that this is what really got me started into ACE ACE ...

if you really are a true football minded person , while doing all of these #'s with MY LINE .....you will have a whole new look at the game . Its not just the final numbers each week of MY LINE ....its a whole lot more about reading between the lines. .... its hardto explain ...i think its just something you have in your gut or heart ....something that just can not be explained.

You probably wonder why I am into all of this ...well that is a long story for another place and time. I have been into the game since I was pretty young . I learned from watching lots of men lose week in/ week out .....sad but true ... In 13years of the night life , I only met 1 man who was a consistant winner out of literally thousands . I am still in contact with that man today and YES....he reads "ACE ACE Exbookie" everyday during the NFL. Betwen that man and ACE , there is no telling how far I can go in this game. I am in this for life and as long as ACE keeps me around ..I aint going no where . ACE has me spoiled rotten but I will give back to this forum just like I have taken from it. It really does feel better to give than recieve.

 

[Bruno2]

Thank you! I plan on finishing all 32 sheets by tomorrow.

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

Thank you! I plan on finishing all 32 sheets by tomorrow.

Your very welcome Bruno 2.

pay attention to what i said about reading between the lines ...there is a whole different story and picture of each team in the NFL ...once you get MY LINE down ..you will see what im talking about in time . remeber its not just about the final number ..make those numbers talk to you .....MY LINE is only the first part of capping a game ..but a dam good place to start .

Dont stay up all night long !!!

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

1 more thing then Im out for the night .

Im not talking about preseason #'s .....im talking about weeks 4-17 .....they will talk to you .

 

[jasmine]

why do you divide by 2?

Because Ace said to take the average of week #3 and week #4 I will use Indianapolis for an example of what I did:

INDIANAPOLIS

..wk..line..line/off..tot/line/offf..time..tot/time..pen/yds..tot/TO...score

stats
...3..+6...////////..//////////////..-7....//////////...116.....4.......24-59

...4..+6.5../////...//////////////..-1....//////////...30.......0........28-30

now #3 @ 75% and #4 @ 25% of the above stats

3...+4.5...-21.75../////////////...-5.25..///////.....87.......3......18-44

4...+1.6...+1.126.../////////.....+0.25..//////......7.5......0......7-7.5

now I add up weeks 3 and 4

tot...+6.1...-20.62...////////.......-5.0..../////.......94.5.....3.....//////

now I divided the above total by 2 to get the weeks #3 and #4 preseason average


......+3.05...-10.31..-10.31.......-2.5....-2.5........47.5....1.5...//////

and this is what I have for Indianapolis going into week 1, are you saying that I should not divide by 2 to get the average? I hope this clears it up I read to average weeks 3 and 4 ?am I doing something wrong???

 

[jasmine]

Because Ace said to take the average of week #3 and week #4 I will use Indianapolis for an example of what I did:

INDIANAPOLIS

..wk..line..line/off..tot/line/offf..time..tot/time..pen/yds..tot/TO...score

stats
...3..+6...////////..//////////////..-7....//////////...116.....4.......24-59

...4..+6.5../////...//////////////..-1....//////////...30.......0........28-30

now #3 @ 75% and #4 @ 25% of the above stats

3...+4.5...-21.75../////////////...-5.25..///////.....87.......3......18-44

4...+1.6...+1.126.../////////.....+0.25..//////......7.5......0......7-7.5

now I add up weeks 3 and 4

tot...+6.1...-20.62...////////.......-5.0..../////.......94.5.....3.....//////

now I divided the above total by 2 to get the weeks #3 and #4 preseason average


......+3.05...-10.31..-10.31.......-2.5....-2.5........47.5....1.5...//////

and this is what I have for Indianapolis going into week 1, are you saying that I should not divide by 2 to get the average? I hope this clears it up I read to average weeks 3 and 4 ?am I doing something wrong???

also I was told to do week 3 at 75% and week 4 at 25% for all stats and that what I did in week 3 first offense played 3/4 of the game (75%) so the score needs to reflect 3/4 of the score and so on that's what I did

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

also I was told to do week 3 at 75% and week 4 at 25% for all stats and that what I did in week 3 first offense played 3/4 of the game (75%) so the score needs to reflect 3/4 of the score and so on that's what I did

lol...th efirst words that read today...let me wake up and ill get you straigt.....I always started with week 1 .

I never used preseason 75% and and 25%. ACE says it makes very little difference either way.

Obviously this wek 3 and week 4 preseason 75/25 % is really confusing people.


ill be back shortly....Ill try and explain in simple terms. I understand where your coming from now ...but I think your looking too deep .


*** NOTE***
remember this , preseason is exactly that ( preseason). In my mind preseason does not mean jack squat diddlyperiod.

ACE uses pre3 and pre4 to get a starting point and to have the sheet up and running for regular week 3.

probably a good idea to use his method to try and match his numbers along the way.


You will see a few veteran MY LINE posters from the past come in here pretty soon who only use regular season.

I am spoiled , i have the spreadsheet and i do not run MY LINE this season. I have my hands tied with the 99S until that spreadsheet kicks in. That takes more time than you could possibly imagine.

since you are trying very hard , I will make sure that you are completely clear on this divide by 2 part. Honestly confusing me a little bit ....just a little bit . just hang tight . I never did this 75/25 thing before ..i always started week #1.

The important thing is that all of you guys do have the fundamental part down ...which you see is very simple and easy....dont think too deep about it and dont get frustrated!!! its only preseason!!!! regular season numbers are what really counts and you dont have to divide by 2 or 75/25 stuff...

 

[jasmine]

Because Ace said to take the average of week #3 and week #4 I will use Indianapolis for an example of what I did:

INDIANAPOLIS

..wk..line..line/off..tot/line/offf..time..tot/time..pen/yds..tot/TO...score

stats
...3..+6...////////..//////////////..-7....//////////...116.....4.......24-59

...4..+6.5../////...//////////////..-1....//////////...30.......0........28-30

now #3 @ 75% and #4 @ 25% of the above stats

3...+4.5...-21.75../////////////...-5.25..///////.....87.......3......18-44

4...+1.6...+1.126.../////////.....+0.25..//////......7.5......0......7-7.5

now I add up weeks 3 and 4

tot...+6.1...-20.62...////////.......-5.0..../////.......94.5.....3.....//////

now I divided the above total by 2 to get the weeks #3 and #4 preseason average


......+3.05...-10.31..-10.31.......-2.5....-2.5........47.5....1.5...//////

and this is what I have for Indianapolis going into week 1, are you saying that I should not divide by 2 to get the average? I hope this clears it up I read to average weeks 3 and 4 ?am I doing something wrong???[/QUOT



week..line..L/off...TOT/Loff...time...tot/time...pen/yds...TO/total....score

pre...+3.05..-10....-10........-2.5.....-2.5.........47.5.........1.5.......//////
#1
#2
#3


or should it be done like this

pre-s...+6.1....-10.0..-10.0....-5.0......-5.0.........94.5.........3.......///////

wk 1
2
3
4
5

 

[jasmine]

Because Ace said to take the average of week #3 and week #4 I will use Indianapolis for an example of what I did:

INDIANAPOLIS

..wk..line..line/off..tot/line/offf..time..tot/time..pen/yds..tot/TO...score

stats
...3..+6...////////..//////////////..-7....//////////...116.....4.......24-59

...4..+6.5../////...//////////////..-1....//////////...30.......0........28-30

now #3 @ 75% and #4 @ 25% of the above stats

3...+4.5...-21.75../////////////...-5.25..///////.....87.......3......18-44

4...+1.6...+1.126.../////////.....+0.25..//////......7.5......0......7-7.5

now I add up weeks 3 and 4

tot...+6.1...-20.62...////////.......-5.0..../////.......94.5.....3.....//////

now I divided the above total by 2 to get the weeks #3 and #4 preseason average


......+3.05...-10.31..-10.31.......-2.5....-2.5........47.5....1.5...//////

and this is what I have for Indianapolis going into week 1, are you saying that I should not divide by 2 to get the average? I hope this clears it up I read to average weeks 3 and 4 ?am I doing something wrong???[/QUOT



week..line..L/off...TOT/Loff...time...tot/time...pen/yds...TO/total....score

pre...+3.05..-10....-10........-2.5.....-2.5.........47.5.........1.5.......//////
#1
#2
#3


or should it be done like this

pre-s...+6.1....-10.0..-10.0....-5.0......-5.0.........94.5.........3.......///////

wk 1
2
3
4
5

or should it be done like this


wk..line..L/off..Tot/L/off..time..Tot/time..pen/yds..TO/tot..score


pre.+6.1..-10....-10.......-5........-5...........94.5......3........//////
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

I see and know exactly why your doing that /2 now.....hang on .....that is confusing . ....Ill have your answer in a bit ...

this is what is confusing you ...right ?


post #271

"yes...and you do the 75% for the 3rd week with all 4 stats...than do week 4..than add them together "

post #229
"
I DO THE LAST TWO WEEKS AVG....IF DET GET T/O OF 3 IN WEEK 3 AND 5 IN WEEK 4...I WOULD PUT DOWN 4....A AVG
SAME FOR LINEOFF
SAME FOR TIME
SAME FOR PENALTIES

IT WILL GET YOU UP BY THE 3RD WEK OF THE REG/SEASON

ACE-ACE "

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

Ill get him in here to answer this in his words.... Im pretty sure that

"or should it be done like this

pre-s...+6.1....-10.0..-10.0....-5.0......-5.0.........94.5.........3......./////// "

is what you are looking for .


remember ..this is not rocket science...I know the numbers should be the same for 100 people out of 100 people ...but sometimes when you round off things get different ..you know what im saying .

ONCE AGAIN .......YOU CAN START FRESH WITH WEEK #1 ( MUCH EASIER ) !!!! JUST USE THAT PRESEASON AS PRACTICE FOR THE MATH ....HONESTLY ....THAT IS THE WAY I WOULD DO IT . YOU DEFINITELY HAVE THE IMPORTANT FORMULAS DOWN.


dont get frustrated ...you have come way to far now.


all of this will be cleared up today !!! I promise you.


we are already knee deep into week #2 ..... but , ill get you fixed up Jasmine .....

 

[jasmine]

Ill get him in here to answer this in his words.... Im pretty sure that

"or should it be done like this

pre-s...+6.1....-10.0..-10.0....-5.0......-5.0.........94.5.........3......./////// "

is what you are looking for .


remember ..this is not rocket science...I know the numbers should be the same for 100 people out of 100 people ...but sometimes when you round off things get different ..you know what im saying .

ONCE AGAIN .......YOU CAN START FRESH WITH WEEK #1 ( MUCH EASIER ) !!!! JUST USE THAT PRESEASON AS PRACTICE FOR THE MATH ....HONESTLY ....THAT IS THE WAY I WOULD DO IT . YOU DEFINITELY HAVE THE IMPORTANT FORMULAS DOWN.


dont get frustrated ...you have come way to far now.


all of this will be cleared up today !!! I promise you.


we are already knee deep into week #2 ..... but , ill get you fixed up Jasmine .....

QOH, thanks for getting back, so you say week 3 at 75% and week 4 at 25% (on the 4 stats ) and just add them together and (TO NOT DIVIDE BY 2) for preseason final number going into week 1?

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

QOH, thanks for getting back, so you say week 3 at 75% and week 4 at 25% (on the 4 stats ) and just add them together and (TO NOT DIVIDE BY 2) for preseason final number going into week 1?

I am 99.999999999% sure that is correct!!! LOL way too funny !!

you brought up some very good points jasmine ( both ways make sense to me ) ..ACE is like super busy right now , like I said , we are knee deep into week #2 already. I slipped the question to him just now ...he will either come in here or answer me soon enough .

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

ACE answered....

I am 100% positive now.

take those numbers and move directly into week #1 . Do not divide by 2.

 

[jasmine]

QOH, thanks for getting back, so you say week 3 at 75% and week 4 at 25% (on the 4 stats ) and just add them together and (TO NOT DIVIDE BY 2) for preseason final number going into week 1?

so this is the correct way? now I can start and do all 32 teams now the correct way a lot of work ahead of me, QOH thanks for your help and say thanks to Ace for me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[jasmine]

or should it be done like this


wk..line..L/off..Tot/L/off..time..Tot/time..pen/yds..TO/tot..score


pre.+6.1..-10....-10.......-5........-5...........94.5......3........//////
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

sorry like this!!!!!!!!!!!!! just add week 3 @ (75%) and add week 4 @ 25%) toghether and that is my final preseason numbers going into week 1, and not divide by 2!!!!!!!

 

[pickempete]

This is what i have for wk.3 75% and wk.4 25% and add both weeks.
It seems i can't get this to work in excel

 

[pickempete]

Team............lineoff.....time.....pent.....to

arizona...........8...........1.2..........44.......1
atlanta..........8.4.........-2...........24....... 2
baltimore.......6.5.........1.5..........59.......1
buffalo..........10..........-.5..........67.......1
carolina.........1.5.........+.5.........25.......1
chicago..........-8...........-2..........16.......2
cincinnati......-10..........2.9.........116.....2
cleveland......-2.5.........-1.9.........44......3
dallas...........-7............-3.4.........40......2
denver...........10............+.4..........66......3
detroit..........4.............1.3..........63.......1
green bay.......10............6.3..........29.......1
houston.........6.............4.9..........55.......1
indianapolis...-10..........-5.6.........95.......3
jacksonville...2.5..........6.4..........59.......2
kansas city....-.5...........-1.2.........44......2
miami..............-10..........1.6..........67.......1
minnesota......5.5...........3.9..........43.......3
new england...-7...........-11.2.........62......1
new orleans...2..............0............91.......1
new giants.....-7.5..........-2...........33.......1
new york jets..-6.5.........2............50.......4
oakland...........-4............-.9..........77.......0
philadelphia....-1............-1.6.........30.......1
pittsburgh......-10..........1.5...........82.......2
san diego........10...........-.8...........34........3
san francisco..4............2.4...........83.......1
seattle............-4.5........-6.9.........63........1
st.louis...........7.5.........11.7..........77.......1
tampa bay.........0...........-7.5..........53.......1
tennessee.........-5............0............39.......3
washington......6.5.........-.7...........64........1

hope this works for the start of the season

 

[pickempete]

For week 1 just using the preseason numbers, here is what I have.
Don't think they mean to much, but have to have something to go on.

Minnesota..........+.94
Carolina.............+1.48
Buffalo..............+1.58
Atlanta.............+1.72
Detroit..............+1.72
Cincinnati..........+1.65
Cleveland..........+.63
Jacksonville........+.85
Houston............+4.76
Tennessee.........+.54
Green Bay..........+2.69
San Francisco.....+2.51
St.Louis.............+1.72
Washington........+1.98
Baltimore...........+2.11
San Diego..........+.9

Match these up with the lines and see what kind of value you get.
Right now I have Carolina value 8.5 Detroit value 8
Cincinnati value 6.5 houston value 7 St.Louis value 6

Good luck everybody