Exbookie School On My Line For The Nfl Doing It On Paper!!!!

[rfb]

:toast:

so should I be using the opening pointspread as opposed to the closing pointspread?

as long as you figure all line offs the same way you should be alright ... i tend to take the middle of the week line...but i'll do my own numbers 1st chance i get during the week...longer i wait things happen and then i have to make the time to get my calculations...and selections

figure your version of myline as soon as you can after adding new calculations into prior weeks totals...and you can do your value calculations whenever you want

once you get into it you'll see why ace is so busy

 

[jasmine]

jasmine, i sent you a PM, check it out.

pickempete, you have a PM sent to you, thanks!!!!!!

 

[SaintsFan1977]

I found this for those that want a check on Line off. I am sure they will run this every week.

http://www.cleanuphitter.com/nfl/stats/chart_ats_margins.php

View attachment 10781

 

[Stabler12]

These are the lines I came up with, adding one point for home field edge-------------

CLE 1 kc
GB 4.5 buf
bal 2.5 CIN
TEN 1.5 pit
phi pk DET
DAL 1 chi
tb 3.5 CAR
ATL 2.5 arz
mia 4.5 MIN
stl 2 OAK
sea 1.5 DEN
WAS 2.5 hou
SD 2 jax
ne 4.5 NYJ
nyg 2 IND
no 3.5 SF

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

These are the lines I came up with, adding one point for home field edge-------------

CLE 1 kc
GB 4.5 buf
bal 2.5 CIN
TEN 1.5 pit
phi pk DET
DAL 1 chi
tb 3.5 CAR
ATL 2.5 arz
mia 4.5 MIN
stl 2 OAK
sea 1.5 DEN
WAS 2.5 hou
SD 2 jax
ne 4.5 NYJ
nyg 2 IND
no 3.5 SF

Hmmm you look familiar . You are a good guy right ? Im assuming that you are ...you know why I ask . Its all good . nothing wrong with being skeptical . This forum has turned many haters into lovers. Ace could start a thread on "haters turned lovers check in "....I believe it would surpass 2 pages in no time at all.



are you using reg season only to get those nubers?
Yes Stabler 12....MY LINE is very much in full force just as it was in 2006. That is just when he offered it to the forum . He was using it long before then . His motto , " To live or die by his system" . Its just a starting point ...but a dam good one.

Its very nice to see you here on this side of forumland.

 

[rfb]

These are the lines I came up with, adding one point for home field edge-------------

CLE 1 kc
GB 4.5 buf
bal 2.5 CIN
TEN 1.5 pit
phi pk DET
DAL 1 chi
tb 3.5 CAR
ATL 2.5 arz
mia 4.5 MIN
stl 2 OAK
sea 1.5 DEN
WAS 2.5 hou
SD 2 jax
ne 4.5 NYJ
nyg 2 IND
no 3.5 SF

believe it is too early to pull myline out of the drawer and use as a tool...system is only as good as the information that goes into it...since i do not use pre-season i like to have at least 4 weeks of data compiled prior to using myline and my own version of myline....

the 99 system that ace also uses...i believe has factors/data included that are not game related...just a guess on my part as i have no idea what makes up that system...

reason myline would not work after 2 weeks of preseason data and 1 regular season game is that the information gathered may not be any indication of the strength of a team...even though myline has several built in check points such as taking the difference in line-off and dividing by 10 or 20 depending on the difference between the teams or time of possession by 5 or 10 depending on the actual differences...you simply do not have enough data...

take the sea/sf game...if that game were to be played again today, at san fran. line-off would show a difference of 56 which would be divided by 20 giving sea a 2.8 advantage vs lineoff....a turnover advantage of .33, and a penalty advantage of .25 while giving sf a 1.1 edge in time of possession and a 1 point home field advantage so we would say the line would be sea-1 to -1.5 ....that after being a 3.5 dog at home last week...

if this game were played 5 or 6 weeks from now with more data to look at and calculate with...and sf was favored by 6 or 7 points...you could very well have a play on sea as long as the myline stats said the same as they do now...i would have no confidence in the myline value if that game were played this weekend

i'll take a look at a few lines you posted and see what i come up with based on 1 week of stats

 

[Stabler12]

Hmmm you look familiar . You are a good guy right ? Im assuming that you are ...you know why I ask . Its all good . nothing wrong with being skeptical . This forum has turned many haters into lovers. Ace could start a thread on "haters turned lovers check in "....I believe it would surpass 2 pages in no time at all.



are you using reg season only to get those nubers?
Yes Stabler 12....MY LINE is very much in full force just as it was in 2006. That is just when he offered it to the forum . He was using it long before then . His motto , " To live or die by his system" . Its just a starting point ...but a dam good one.

Its very nice to see you here on this side of forumland.

Thanks for the info, Queen. I go by Munson at other forums, Stabler and he were my favorites growing up in the 70's, so I use those names. I am not what you'd call a skeptic, I asked several questions of Ace last season across the street, and he was very cordial. I would like to know how much data is necessary to validate the figures, as I don't use NFLX stats. Thanks for all you do, Queenie.:toast:

 

[Stabler12]

believe it is too early to pull myline out of the drawer and use as a tool...system is only as good as the information that goes into it...since i do not use pre-season i like to have at least 4 weeks of data compiled prior to using myline and my own version of myline....

the 99 system that ace also uses...i believe has factors/data included that are not game related...just a guess on my part as i have no idea what makes up that system...

reason myline would not work after 2 weeks of preseason data and 1 regular season game is that the information gathered may not be any indication of the strength of a team...even though myline has several built in check points such as taking the difference in line-off and dividing by 10 or 20 depending on the difference between the teams or time of possession by 5 or 10 depending on the actual differences...you simply do not have enough data...

take the sea/sf game...if that game were to be played again today, at san fran. line-off would show a difference of 56 which would be divided by 20 giving sea a 2.8 advantage vs lineoff....a turnover advantage of .33, and a penalty advantage of .25 while giving sf a 1.1 edge in time of possession and a 1 point home field advantage so we would say the line would be sea-1 to -1.5 ....that after being a 3.5 dog at home last week...

if this game were played 5 or 6 weeks from now with more data to look at and calculate with...and sf was favored by 6 or 7 points...you could very well have a play on sea as long as the myline stats said the same as they do now...i would have no confidence in the myline value if that game were played this weekend

i'll take a look at a few lines you posted and see what i come up with based on 1 week of stats

I agree that NFLX stats are bogus, and that one week is not enough data, so the question for Ace would be, how long before we have enough numbers to use "MY LINE" as a tool?

 

[ACE-ACE]

I agree that NFLX stats are bogus, and that one week is not enough data, so the question for Ace would be, how long before we have enough numbers to use "MY LINE" as a tool?

I'm using it this week...50%
after week two stats are in 75%
than after week 3 its 100%

I'm use it this week with the other tools but I wt it only 50%

 

[rfb]

I agree that NFLX stats are bogus, and that one week is not enough data, so the question for Ace would be, how long before we have enough numbers to use "MY LINE" as a tool?

stabler;

i see ace has answered that question....i like 4 weeks...the only reason i say 4 is i like to see each team play a game or two at home and on the road...this does not always happen but not many clubs open up with 4 straight road games...

by the way...i did the 1st six or so games and come up very similar to your numbers....i don't like home field advantage unless their actually is one...that gets determined in my eyes as the season progresses...

i see those 1st six as
clev E
gb 2
balt 2
tenn 1
det e
dal 1

in the event we had enough data to actually use these numbers...the difference between your numbers and mine would not effect whether or not a game would be a play or not under the system....

so anyone who does their own numbers can see that each week we all can have slight differences in our numbers based on what line we used or how we rounded offf....but they should not effect a play

 

[aichdee]

Here is what I came up with after week 1 (no pre-season and no points for homefield).

 

[parlay100]

Ok guys please bear with me I know how frustrating it is when the new guy jumps in. But can some one please let me know I am on the right track?? I just used the first week, no preseason.
I did Minny vs. Miami.

Line off
Miami 2
Minny -.05

2-(-0.5)=1.5/100=.15


Time
Miami 37:00:00
Minny 26:00:00
+7-(-4)=3/5=.6

Penalties
Miami 15
Minny 60
60-15=45/100=.45


Turnovers
Miami 0
Minny 1
0-1=1/3=.33

Line off---.15
Time---.6
Penalties--.45
T/O--.33


.15+.6+.45+.33=1.53

I get 1.53. Now who gets that green bay or Miami?
Should i add anything for homefield?
Am I even in the ball park??

Thanks guys.

 

[SaintsFan1977]

Ok guys please bear with me I know how frustrating it is when the new guy jumps in. But can some one please let me know I am on the right track?? I just used the first week, no preseason.
I did Minny vs. Miami.

Line off
Miami 2
Minny -.05

2-(-0.5)=1.5/100=.15


Time
Miami 37:00:00
Minny 26:00:00
+7-(-4)=3/5=.6

Penalties
Miami 15
Minny 60
60-15=45/100=.45


Turnovers
Miami 0
Minny 1
0-1=1/3=.33

Line off---.15
Time---.6
Penalties--.45
T/O--.33


.15+.6+.45+.33=1.53

I get 1.53. Now who gets that green bay or Miami?
Should i add anything for homefield?
Am I even in the ball park??

Thanks guys.

I didn't check your numbers but they look good.

As you can see the edge is Miami.

Line off=.15 which is basically 0 but Miami was already on the plus side to begin with. Plus side is better

Time= 0.6 Miami/ more time is better

Penalties=.45 Miami had 15yds and Minny had 60, Less is better so edge -Miami

Turn Overs=.33 Miami had 0, Minny had 1, Less is better

 

[aichdee]

Ok guys please bear with me I know how frustrating it is when the new guy jumps in. But can some one please let me know I am on the right track?? I just used the first week, no preseason.
I did Minny vs. Miami.

Line off
Miami 2
Minny -.05

2-(-0.5)=1.5/100=.15


Time
Miami 37:00:00
Minny 26:00:00
+7-(-4)=3/5=.6

Penalties
Miami 15
Minny 60
60-15=45/100=.45


Turnovers
Miami 0
Minny 1
0-1=1/3=.33

Line off---.15
Time---.6
Penalties--.45
T/O--.33


.15+.6+.45+.33=1.53

I get 1.53. Now who gets that green bay or Miami?
Should i add anything for homefield?
Am I even in the ball park??

Thanks guys.

I think your time is wrong.

Miami 37:00:00
Minny 26:00:00
+7-(-4) = 11/5=2.2

 

[parlay100]

Thank you aichdee. You are right my math obviously sucks. Once we get these numbers what do you do with them?
So with your math correction,it would be 3.13. I know i read something about having a value of 6 or more.
Thanks again guys for the hand holding.

 

[aichdee]

Thank you aichdee. You are right my math obviously sucks. Once we get these numbers what do you do with them?
So with your math correction,it would be 3.13. I know i read something about having a value of 6 or more.
Thanks again guys for the hand holding.

First, just to be clear, you week 3 or 4 weeks of data before you start using myline.

So I will use the Miami game above as an example. After calculating the myline, you come up with Miami as a 3.13 favorite. Now the actual line for the game is Miami +5.5. There is a difference of 8.63 between the actual line and myline. If this was after week 3 or 4, you would want to look more into this game because the difference in the lines is greater than 6.

 

[aichdee]

I created a spreadsheet for the 2010 season. The data will load automatically (although it relies on my updating a website each week at this point).

I am looking for someone to test the spreadsheet. The spreadsheet will only work with Excel 2007. Post here or pm me if you want to test for me.

 

[VegasVixen]

I have a question re: comparing 2 negative #"s:
Comparing Time; team A = -3, team B = -15... subtracting -15 from -3 gives me -12. (Or should I use 12?). Then divide -12 by 5 = -2.4. So team A is favored by -2.4 which actually subtracts from their side when comparing the 4 numbers?

 

[rfb]

I have a question re: comparing 2 negative #"s:
Comparing Time; team A = -3, team B = -15... subtracting -15 from -3 gives me -12. (Or should I use 12?). Then divide -12 by 5 = -2.4. So team A is favored by -2.4 which actually subtracts from their side when comparing the 4 numbers?

team A is 12 better timewise than team B...no matter what way you cut it...in this example more time is better so team A gets the 2.4. also, math is actually =-3-(-15) = 12

 

[VegasVixen]

Thank you, makes total sense, just wanted to be sure. Also, in reading through the older posts I found 2 more "rules" mentioned that I didn't see the 1st time through:
1- I saw it mentioned that the lowest "lineoff" he uses going into week one is -10? For example, for for PITT I have pre 3 lineoff -18, pre 4 lineoff 9.5 which using the 75/25 i averaged to -11 for preseason. Should I have adjusted this up to -10?

2- I know that when comparing TIME you divide by 5; however I just saw it mentioned that if over 25 you divide by 10?

Please confirm at your convenience. I know many of you have used the lineoff tool for years, this is my 1st season with it; just want to make sure it's entirely accurate before putting it into action.

Maybe someone here who has pre 3/4 at 75/25, and weeks 1&2 done tomorrow can post their lineoff #'s for comparison? I'll be happy to share mine after tonite's game.

Thanks again for your help guys! @)