Exbookie School On My Line For The Nfl Doing It On Paper!!!!

[mike52683]

I'm trying to figure out where to go next with my spreadsheet...any input is greatly appreciated

Example:


CIN
Lineoff: -10
Time: 2.9
Penalties: 116
T/O: 2

NE
Lineoff: -7
Time: -11.2
Penalties: 62
T/O: 1

What do from here? I believe my spreadsheet is calculating these number correctly but I just am not following when it comes to the next step.

Thanks.

Mike

I've read the first page of this thread about 10 times...I THINK I have it now...but please if someone could verify I would appreciate it.

Line off:
CIN: -10...NE: -7: Difference= 3 in favor of NE

3/10= -.3 NE

Time:
CIN: 2.9...NE: -11.2: Difference = 14.1 in favor of CIN

14.1/5 = -2.82 CIN

Penalties:
CIN: 116...NE: 62: Difference= 54 in favor of NE

54/100= -.54 NE

T/O:
CIN: 2...NE: 1: Difference= 1 in favor of NE

1/3= -.33 in favor of NE

My Line for this game:
-.3 NE
-2.82 CIN
-.54 NE
-.33 NE

My line: -1.65 CIN
Actual line: +5 CIN
Value: 6.65 CIN

 

[ACE-ACE]

I've read the first page of this thread about 10 times...I THINK I have it now...but please if someone could verify I would appreciate it.

Line off:
CIN: -10...NE: -7: Difference= 3 in favor of NE

3/10= -.3 NE

Time:
CIN: 2.9...NE: -11.2: Difference = 14.1 in favor of CIN

14.1/5 = -2.82 CIN

Penalties:
CIN: 116...NE: 62: Difference= 54 in favor of NE

54/100= -.54 NE

T/O:
CIN: 2...NE: 1: Difference= 1 in favor of NE

1/3= -.33 in favor of NE

My Line for this game:
-.3 NE
-2.82 CIN
-.54 NE
-.33 NE

My line: -1.65 CIN
Actual line: +5 CIN
Value: 6.65 CIN

also factor 1 point for home team...you got it...now teach others and or help others in this thread...thanks Ace

 

[mike52683]

Will do!

Thanks for your help and sharing Ace!

Mike

 

[rfb]

mike...

myline is a system that tracks those stats that you seem to have a grasp of....now keep the totals for each team in a spreadsheet. you need at least 4 or 5 weeks worth of data. each week add line off, turnovers, time of poss. and penalty yds to past week totals so you get a cummulative total for each category.

ace uses the 3rd and 4th week of pre-season (a percentage of each) so he will have some numbers to work with earlier than me as i do not use the pre season at all. just my own twist on ace's system. i actually take the myline system stats and add those to other stats involving scoring both for and against to come up with my own version of "myline"...

i don't believe you will see any myline numbers until week 3 or 4 when ace will have enough stats to analyze. keep in mind that ace uses these stats as 50% of the work required to either select or eliminate a game from consideration. the other 50% is his own research, experience, knowledge and contacts.

he may for instance get a team with a value of 6 or more vs the actual line...but not include that selection in his plays for the week....i have tracked every game for a couple of years now, regardless if it was a play (greater than value of 6). if myline gave a lean to a team (any value vs the line) ...playing every game with such value would put you at around 50% winners/losers....it is the other 50% that separates the money makers from the losers...

ace is using this 99 system and he seems to favor this system over myline calculations, in my opinion. if a myline number gave a value of 6 ace would rarely if ever go against that team...several times last year, the 99 system put him on a team that was in direct conflict with the myline calculations..since i have no idea of the components of the 99 system, i do not know why he has such faith in it, other than the obvious (excellent record picking winners)....i believe the 99 system takes more of the personal side (other 50%) out of the equation.....just a guess on my part...

so you seem to have the system down...but it will not do anything for you until week 3 or 4...and it is only half of what you need to be a winner...but certainly is a solid foundation

good luck

 

[cains]

I get a timeout when trying this... Maybe im doing it wrong though.. I only have a years experince from sportsdatabase so far. But i think its a pretty interesting way to do it. And helps alot in finding trends and testing them..

I ran this on sportsdatabase.com , using the past 5 games as the data...

(((tS(ats margin,N=5)-oS(ats margin,N=5))/-10-(tS(time of possession,N=5)-oS(time of possession,N=5)+(tS(penalties,N=5)-oS(penalties,N=5)/100)+(tS(turnovers,N=5)-oS(turnovers,N=5))/3)))<(line-20)

that was the SDQL query, if anyone else knows the site or queries they can double check me

these were the results

you can change the # of previous games it gathers from by replacing N=5 with N=X where X = #s of back games to gather data from...

 

[rfb]

just a note to any people keeping their own stats...

you will have different LO, and TP, numbers from one another depending on what line you are using for the line-off numbers, and how you round off the time of possession. on time of possession for instance, 30:30 could be figures as a +.3 however a more accurate reading would be +.5 (for a half minute)...i believe ace uses 33:45 as +3.45.....someone could use it as +3.75....these different styles can add up over the course of a season to either make a game a play or no play....i'm not really sure if it matters or not but 45 seconds is .75 of a minute (for accuracy purposes)...i believe as long as you are consistant with the way you obtain your numbers it may not matter at all in the long run....

as far as the line goes...whether you figure the opening line...closing line...or line at the time you make a play...makes a big difference....if you are measuring actual line difference between your number and the bookmaker's number...may be better to use the opening line and make your plays early...that doesn't help much since most players will do some research and their own calculations before making a play...opening line often changes after it is offered to sharps and money is put down...your figuring should be somewhere between monday and saturday...again just be consistant...you will have games that fall out of the range that you would play...and others that become plays as the week progresses...don't know if there is a right time or not...but being consistant will more than likely serv you better over the long haul...

any thoughts out there would be appreciated and could help anyone who is gathering there own number........

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

rfb!!!

Its very nice to see you in here.

rfb is the man when it comes to MY LINE.

keep his notes. he has some very valid points.

just like ACE says, " we all see those numbers differently".


Thanks for taking over here RFB.

 

[jasmine]

For week 1 just using the preseason numbers, here is what I have.
Don't think they mean to much, but have to have something to go on.

Minnesota..........+.94
Carolina.............+1.48
Buffalo..............+1.58
Atlanta.............+1.72
Detroit..............+1.72
Cincinnati..........+1.65
Cleveland..........+.63
Jacksonville........+.85
Houston............+4.76
Tennessee.........+.54
Green Bay..........+2.69
San Francisco.....+2.51
St.Louis.............+1.72
Washington........+1.98
Baltimore...........+2.11
San Diego..........+.9

Match these up with the lines and see what kind of value you get.
Right now I have Carolina value 8.5 Detroit value 8
Cincinnati value 6.5 houston value 7 St.Louis value 6

Good luck everybody

Hello, Pete you have a PM. Thanks

 

[pickempete]

jasmine, i sent you a PM, check it out.

 

[SaintsFan1977]

PM sent to you Pete. Thanks

 

[jasmine]

just a note to any people keeping their own stats...

you will have different LO, and TP, numbers from one another depending on what line you are using for the line-off numbers, and how you round off the time of possession. on time of possession for instance, 30:30 could be figures as a +.3 however a more accurate reading would be +.5 (for a half minute)...i believe ace uses 33:45 as +3.45.....someone could use it as +3.75....these different styles can add up over the course of a season to either make a game a play or no play....i'm not really sure if it matters or not but 45 seconds is .75 of a minute (for accuracy purposes)...i believe as long as you are consistant with the way you obtain your numbers it may not matter at all in the long run....

as far as the line goes...whether you figure the opening line...closing line...or line at the time you make a play...makes a big difference....if you are measuring actual line difference between your number and the bookmaker's number...may be better to use the opening line and make your plays early...that doesn't help much since most players will do some research and their own calculations before making a play...opening line often changes after it is offered to sharps and money is put down...your figuring should be somewhere between monday and saturday...again just be consistant...you will have games that fall out of the range that you would play...and others that become plays as the week progresses...don't know if there is a right time or not...but being consistant will more than likely serv you better over the long haul...

any thoughts out there would be appreciated and could help anyone who is gathering there own number........

so should I be using the opening pointspread as opposed to the closing pointspread?

 

[Riv34]

anyone put an excel sheet together yet ?

 

[SaintsFan1977]

anyone put an excel sheet together yet ?

I am working on one right now. I am having trouble getting it to calculate LINE OFF. I am trying to figure out how to use the difference in score with the line but the numbers come out wrong as well as the sign. I am not understanding the LINE OFF or something.

Is the LINE OFF = ATS Margin?

 

[SaintsFan1977]

If the line for 49ers is -2.5 the line off should be -27.5 correct? Since the score was 31-6. i think this is right.

 

[mike52683]

I am working on one right now. I am having trouble getting it to calculate LINE OFF. I am trying to figure out how to use the difference in score with the line but the numbers come out wrong as well as the sign. I am not understanding the LINE OFF or something.

Is the LINE OFF = ATS Margin?

This is the way I calculate line off. I'm sure there are a couple different ways to set this up in Excel, but this is how I've done it.

Baltimore (just as an example)- I setup a sheet like this for every team.
Week....Line....Team Score....Opponent Score....Line Off
1..........1........10.................9.........................2

Line off formula:
(Line)-(Opponent Score-Team Score)

I enter the line, the team score (Baltimore in this example) and their opponent's score (NYJ in this example).

Green Bay as another example:
Week....Line....Team Score....Opponent Score....Line Off
1.........-3........27................20.........................4

Line off formula:
(Line)-(Opponent Score-Team Score)

Hope this helps.

Mike

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

I am working on one right now. I am having trouble getting it to calculate LINE OFF. I am trying to figure out how to use the difference in score with the line but the numbers come out wrong as well as the sign. I am not understanding the LINE OFF or something.

Is the LINE OFF = ATS Margin?

YES

actual line = team A +10


team B wins 45-21

line off 14 points


team A-14
team B+14

---------------

actual line = team A -7

team A loses 21-17

line off 11 points

team A -11
team B +11


---------------------

actual line=team A-3

team A wins 35-10

line off 22 points


team A +22
team B-22

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

If the line for 49ers is -2.5 the line off should be -27.5 correct? Since the score was 31-6. i think this is right.

A= 49'rs
B=seahawks


actual line =team A-2.5

team A loses 31-6

line off 27.5

team A -27.5
team b +27.5

....... You got it .

 

[SaintsFan1977]

This is the way I calculate line off. I'm sure there are a couple different ways to set this up in Excel, but this is how I've done it.

Baltimore (just as an example)- I setup a sheet like this for every team.
Week....Line....Team Score....Opponent Score....Line Off
1..........1........10.................9.........................2

Line off formula:
(Line)-(Opponent Score-Team Score)

I enter the line, the team score (Baltimore in this example) and their opponent's score (NYJ in this example).

Green Bay as another example:
Week....Line....Team Score....Opponent Score....Line Off
1.........-3........27................20.........................4

Line off formula:
(Line)-(Opponent Score-Team Score)

Hope this helps.

Mike

A= 49'rs
B=seahawks


actual line =team A-2.5

team A loses 31-6

line off 27.5

team A -27.5
team b +27.5

....... You got it .

OK I got it. Thank yall very much.

 

[Riv34]

good work, let me know when you how the spreadsheet goes !

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

I completely understand Ace....thanks.

Queen of Hearts, whenever you get time your input is much appreciated...I know you are busy

Thanks.

Mike

Mike,
I apologize for not getting back to you on Sunday...
If you only knew how little sleep I had last week ....

I see you have it down down now.

good luck and if you ever need an answer .... dont hesitate to ask .

you will have questions in a few weeks ...rfb is a master of MY LINE. pay attention to him. He has it going on .