Exbookie School On My Line For The Nfl Doing It On Paper!!!!

[jasmine]

on paper I round it...on the spreadsheet that will kick in after week 2....its not round off.....on paper I like to put two team together and look at them side by side....

Thanks Ace, so you have a spreadsheet for myline and you still do it on paper too?

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

Thanks Ace, so you have a spreadsheet for myline and you still do it on paper too?

yes....always good to balance...or check system check.

 

[pickempete]

Here is what I came up with for preseason wk.3 & 4 averages

L/O Time Pent T/O
Arizona 7.5 1.6 39 2
Atlanta 5.5 .8 31 2
Baltimore 3.5 -.8 53 2
Buffalo 9 2.5 77 1
Carolina -2.5 -.2 38 1
Chicago -7 -3.3 18 2
Cincinnati -11.5 2.4 111 2
Cleveland -.5 .7 43 3
Dallas -3 -1.3 62 1
Denver 7.8 2.2 64 3
Detroit 2.8 -2 64 2
Green Bay 15.5 5.4 33 1
Houston 1 4.2 48 1
Indianapolis -13.5 -4.2 73 2
Jacksonville 2 3.6 56 1
Kansas City -.5 -2.1 44 2
Miami -8.5 .1 59 2
Minnesota 4.8 .7 43 3
New England -4.5 -8.7 52 1
New Orleans 8.5 -1.2 92 1
New York Giants -5 -.1 31 1
New York Jets -2.5 .4 55 4
Oakland -3 1.5 85 0
Philadelphia -3 -3.6 29 2
Pittsburgh -5 1.5 72 2
San Diego -6 -.4 43 3
San Francisco 3 1.4 83 2
Seattle -3 -6.7 79 1
St.Louis 6 9.6 75 1
Tampa Bay 3.5 -6 55 1
Tennessee -5 1.3 70 2
Washington 2.5 -1.8 80 1

 

[pickempete]

I hope everyone can read this, it did not come out like i wanted it to.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Here is what I came up with for preseason wk.3 & 4 averages

L/O Time Pent T/O
Arizona 7.5 1.6 39 2
Atlanta 5.5 .8 31 2
Baltimore 3.5 -.8 53 2
Buffalo 9 2.5 77 1
Carolina -2.5 -.2 38 1
Chicago -7 -3.3 18 2
Cincinnati -11.5 2.4 111 2
Cleveland -.5 .7 43 3
Dallas -3 -1.3 62 1
Denver 7.8 2.2 64 3
Detroit 2.8 -2 64 2
Green Bay 15.5 5.4 33 1
Houston 1 4.2 48 1
Indianapolis -13.5 -4.2 73 2
Jacksonville 2 3.6 56 1
Kansas City -.5 -2.1 44 2
Miami -8.5 .1 59 2
Minnesota 4.8 .7 43 3
New England -4.5 -8.7 52 1
New Orleans 8.5 -1.2 92 1
New York Giants -5 -.1 31 1
New York Jets -2.5 .4 55 4
Oakland -3 1.5 85 0
Philadelphia -3 -3.6 29 2
Pittsburgh -5 1.5 72 2
San Diego -6 -.4 43 3
San Francisco 3 1.4 83 2
Seattle -3 -6.7 79 1
St.Louis 6 9.6 75 1
Tampa Bay 3.5 -6 55 1
Tennessee -5 1.3 70 2
Washington 2.5 -1.8 80 1

I have look at 12 of them and they are right on.....good job

 

[zebguy]

Here is what I came up with for preseason wk.3 & 4 averages

L/O Time Pent T/O
Arizona 7.5 1.6 39 2
Atlanta 5.5 .8 31 2
Baltimore 3.5 -.8 53 2
Buffalo 9 2.5 77 1
Carolina -2.5 -.2 38 1
Chicago -7 -3.3 18 2
Cincinnati -11.5 2.4 111 2
Cleveland -.5 .7 43 3
Dallas -3 -1.3 62 1
Denver 7.8 2.2 64 3
Detroit 2.8 -2 64 2
Green Bay 15.5 5.4 33 1
Houston 1 4.2 48 1
Indianapolis -13.5 -4.2 73 2
Jacksonville 2 3.6 56 1
Kansas City -.5 -2.1 44 2
Miami -8.5 .1 59 2
Minnesota 4.8 .7 43 3
New England -4.5 -8.7 52 1
New Orleans 8.5 -1.2 92 1
New York Giants -5 -.1 31 1
New York Jets -2.5 .4 55 4
Oakland -3 1.5 85 0
Philadelphia -3 -3.6 29 2
Pittsburgh -5 1.5 72 2
San Diego -6 -.4 43 3
San Francisco 3 1.4 83 2
Seattle -3 -6.7 79 1
St.Louis 6 9.6 75 1
Tampa Bay 3.5 -6 55 1
Tennessee -5 1.3 70 2
Washington 2.5 -1.8 80 1

These numbers compute the averages, but I noticed earlier in this thread that some have calculated these pre-season averages by taking 70% of week 3 and 30% of week 4. These numbers above are 50/50, right ? Which is better ? Thanks !

 

[pickempete]

zebguy, them numbers are 50/50 the avg of wks 3 and 4
hope it helps you out and good luck this year

 

[ACE-ACE]

zebguy, them numbers are 50/50 the avg of wks 3 and 4
hope it helps you out and good luck this year

not right...I use to do 70% of the stats on week 3 and only 30 % on week 4

now its 75%-25%

with a stop point for Lineoff/....no more than -10 or +10 to start the season

...................................................l/o........t..........p........t/o
if you did it my way ind would be -10......-5........94........2

 

[jasmine]

not right...I use to do 70% of the stats on week 3 and only 30 % on week 4

now its 75%-25%

with a stop point for Lineoff/....no more than -10 or +10 to start the season

...................................................l/o........t..........p........t/o
if you did it my way ind would be -10......-5........94........2

Ace do you do 75% week 3 and 25% week 4 do you do it for line or just time-----penalty yards-----TO total or do you do 75% and 25% right across all 7 headings, also from week 3 75% to week 4 25% is this cumulative succession?

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace do you do 75% week 3 and 25% week 4 do you do it for line or just time-----penalty yards-----TO total or do you do 75% and 25% right across all 7 headings, also from week 3 75% to week 4 25% is this cumulative succession?

yes...and you do the 75% for the 3rd week with all 4 stats...than do week 4..than add them together

 

[pickempete]

Ace, is it alright to use the average of preseason wk.3 and wk.4 to start the season or should I use wk.3 75% and wk.4 25%
Will it make any difference. Thanks for all your help.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace, is it alright to use the average of preseason wk.3 and wk.4 to start the season or should I use wk.3 75% and wk.4 25%
Will it make any difference. Thanks for all your help.

more of the starts are in week 3...thats why 75% goes on week 3...make sure you dont put more than +10 or -10 in lineoff

 

[Bruno2]

Ace,

Where can I get lines from Pre Season weeks 3 and 4? I am trying to get my sheets started.

Thanks for everything.

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

Ace,

Where can I get lines from Pre Season weeks 3 and 4? I am trying to get my sheets started.

Thanks for everything.

http://scores.covers.com/football-scores-matchups.aspx?t=0

those are closing lines

You can change the week from the drop down menu then hit refresh. from this page you can go all the way back to 06-07.



The next question that everyone is going to ask is, "what Vegas line do we use" ?

answer, " its a floating scale just the actual line is"....rather it be opening , closing , or any where in between.

At any point that you find a plus 6 value , you have found the edge that this tool was made for.

 

[zebguy]

not right...I use to do 70% of the stats on week 3 and only 30 % on week 4

now its 75%-25%

with a stop point for Lineoff/....no more than -10 or +10 to start the season

...................................................l/o........t..........p........t/o
if you did it my way ind would be -10......-5........94........2

Ace or QOH - I am doing my own calcs here also, and I get -10 ..... -5.7 ..... 94.5 .... 3 .... I would like to know why my calc for time and turnovers is off ... am I doing something wrong ... Indy had 4 turnovers in game 3 of preseason and 0 turnovers in game 4. 75% of 4 plus 25% of 0 is 3. Is that right ? Thank you !

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

Ace or QOH - I am doing my own calcs here also, and I get -10 ..... -5.7 ..... 94.5 .... 3 .... I would like to know why my calc for time and turnovers is off ... am I doing something wrong ... Indy had 4 turnovers in game 3 of preseason and 0 turnovers in game 4. 75% of 4 plus 25% of 0 is 3. Is that right ? Thank you !

your turn overs are correct . ....it appears to me that your -5.7 is for week 3 only ...add week 4 to it and you should get rounded down to 5 . that was quick math ...im outy for the day .

 

[zebguy]

your turn overs are correct . ....it appears to me that your -5.7 is for week 3 only ...add week 4 to it and you should get rounded down to 5 . that was quick math ...im outy for the day .

Thanks QOH. For time, I have -7.13 week 3 and -1.22 week 4. .75*7.13+.25*1.22 = 5.65 (all negative).

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace or QOH - I am doing my own calcs here also, and I get -10 ..... -5.7 ..... 94.5 .... 3 .... I would like to know why my calc for time and turnovers is off ... am I doing something wrong ... Indy had 4 turnovers in game 3 of preseason and 0 turnovers in game 4. 75% of 4 plus 25% of 0 is 3. Is that right ? Thank you !

my mistake...I got 3 t/o for Ind

time the 3rd week game was -7 times75=-5.5 week 4 it was +1 times 25% +.25...so -5.5 +.25 =-5

 

[zebguy]

my mistake...I got 3 t/o for Ind

time the 3rd week game was -7 times75=-5.5 week 4 it was +1 times 25% +.25...so -5.5 +.25 =-5

Thanks Ace - NFL.com shows time for Indy at -1 for week 4, so I was using -1. I will look on another site to make sure. Thanks again for your help.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Thanks Ace - NFL.com shows time for Indy at -1 for week 4, so I was using -1. I will look on another site to make sure. Thanks again for your help.

espn alway has it right