Vitt my only bias is to the truth but you are just wrong in saying skill isn't a huge element of poker. What don't you understand about the difference between variance/volatility and skill? Daytrading, long-term investing, sports betting, I dunno a million other things all take varying levels of skill to be successful. Just because there are big winners and losers in the short-term based on variance (luck) doesn't make this not so.
Vitt my only bias is to the truth but you are just wrong in saying skill isn't a huge element of poker. What don't you understand about the difference between variance/volatility and skill? Daytrading, long-term investing, sports betting, I dunno a million other things all take varying levels of skill to be successful. Just because there are big winners and losers in the short-term based on variance (luck) doesn't make this not so.
This isn't tough to grasp. I'm not saying there isn't skill involved.....there is. But I don't consider myself extremely skilled but walked away with a ton of money over a short period. Luck is a huge factor....it just is. I don't care that I got lucky....I'm glad but the only true skill is picking up on betting patterns and maximizing profit when you have it and minimizing losses when you don't. It's not rocket science skill that some of these guys think it is.
Do you know how many pros go bust? A lot.....
Do do you know how many stock traders go bust?
Is there no skill in stock trading?
Do you know how many commodity traders go bust?
Is there no skill in commodity trading?
Do you know how many real estate investors go bust?
No skill in that?
So what's your point?
Tourney poker is a high variance game. A lot of people are going to win that should likely stop playing right after doing so, doesn't mean it isn't a skillful game. Also, there is a lot more to it than picking up betting patterns. I mean, if it were easy to just make a boatload of $ playing poker then everyone would do it. The people who do it for a living year in and year out obviously have a lot of skill to create a sustainable edge.
As far as people going bust, that happens in all walks of life for credentialed people and sometimes doesn't have much to do with their craft.
First off, this thread wasn't even about whether poker is a game of skill or luck, not sure how we got here. This conversation is better suited for the DFS thread.
Anyway...
It is impossible to say what % of poker success/failure is luck and what % is skill. It's not a quantifiable ratio, so arguing about it is stupid.
The way I view it is that if you look at a player's profit over time, over a large sample - there will be ups and downs, but you can fit a trendline to it. The ups and downs, the peaks and valleys - that is luck. It is the "noise" that surrounds the overall trend line.
The slope of the trend line is a reflection of the player's skill.
There is no way that a good run of luck will make a bad player's trendline look good over a large sample, and vice versa. Unless you're saying the game is rigged, which I guess was the original discussion.
The sole exception would be someone luckboxing a giant MTT, which is possible and does happen. Doesn't make skill any less of a factor in the game as a whole though.
Anyway...
It is impossible to say what % of poker success/failure is luck and what % is skill. It's not a quantifiable ratio, so arguing about it is stupid.
The way I view it is that if you look at a player's profit over time, over a large sample - there will be ups and downs, but you can fit a trendline to it. The ups and downs, the peaks and valleys - that is luck. It is the "noise" that surrounds the overall trend line.
The slope of the trend line is a reflection of the player's skill.
There is no way that a good run of luck will make a bad player's trendline look good over a large sample, and vice versa. Unless you're saying the game is rigged, which I guess was the original discussion.
The sole exception would be someone luckboxing a giant MTT, which is possible and does happen. Doesn't make skill any less of a factor in the game as a whole though.
Youre making the skill part more than it is. The game takes skill....I've already said this but not as much as some think.
Give me a specific set of skills I'm missing. Trying to pick up patterns and maximizing your profit on big hands and minimizing losses are the main ones as far as I see it. Knowing what to bet to induce calls or get someone to fold ....and walking back hands trying to put your opponent on a hand is another but what else am I missing?
No. No offense but this is a pretty ignorant statement.
Of course a recreational player knows that JJ is flipping against AK. Most probably know that with a flush draw they have 9 outs and about a 36% chance of completing.
But calculating your hand's equity against an opponents entire range of hands, and weighing that against the pot + implied odds to determine if you have the proper equity to call...is a far more complex equation. Especially when you are multi-handed, and when you have to factor in ICM implications during tournament play.
Push/call math also gets fairly complicated.
