Dial Square's 2012-13 Thread

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news keep getting worse for cocktail as city drew aston villa in the capitol one aka carling cup...i know how much he loves that cup. United drew Newcastle which i imagine sir alex will play team b and probably lose out...chelsea drew wolves and liverpool drew (already losers to) WBA. And the good news is Arsenal drew Coventry....

between group stage and this cup - if we had a full team this would be a great day....it's a shame hearts didn't at least force extra vs liverpool both for sunday and for pure satisifaction that liverpool cannot beat Hearts in a two-leg affair....oh well....

gl this weekend - hopefully better than the last one for me...ps don't bet arsenal to win but i suspect we might get 1 vs liverpool
 

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well i just typed my write up for the 3 matches today and clicked submit only to have the internet down and lost everything ... so i'll do it again but probably less of a write up then usually....i really should type it in word first

Overall Record: 48-42-3 +2.59 units
August: 43-35-2 +6.29 units

Friday August 31st
German Bundesliga II
1860 Munich v MSV Duisburg
1860 Munich -1 +100 - 1.00 to win 1 unit
i will warn the forum that this will be a very popular play but for me until Duisburg show signs they belong in German II i'll fade them every game. Duisburg 0-3 so far losing to two promotion 3 liga sides including a home match vs Aalen and a tougher loss on the road to Dresden. But losing 4-1 to Aalen and 2-0 to Jahn Regensburg are brutal results. The only positive result for Duisburg was a 1-0 cup win vs 3 liga side Halle. 1860 with postive start to the year despite just 1 win in 3 matches. 1860 won their only home match 1-0 to Jahn Regensburg and draws on the road to Dresden and Kaiserlautern are decent. 1860 Munich definitely have promotion desires finishing just 5 points out of a promotion playoff spot last season. Duisburg, at the start of the year, appeared to be one of favourties for relegation and so far that is holding true. H2H in Munich, 1860 4 wins and 2 draws in 6 match since 2004. Last season they won both matches vs Duisburg 2-1 and 0-3.

Dresden v Kaiserslautern
over 2.5 goals -118 - 1.18 to win 1 unit
Dresden at home was a big reason i did so well in the German Bundesliga II. Dresden 11 overs in 17 home matches and you probably know i like german II overs. ;) So far this year Dresden 3 over in 3 league matches (4 for 4 if you count the cup) and drew 1860 Munich 2-2 in their only home match of the year. 2-2 seems like a logical scoreline for this one. Kaiserlautern are coming off a 0-0 match (i think it was raining buckets for the match but i might be wrong) - prior to that Kaiser played 2 overs including a 1-2 win on the road vs Aalen. (their only road match). Counting their cup match, Kaiser 3 overs in the first 4 matches. It is easy to be inspired to score in front of Dresden fans and it will be hard to keep a clean sheet against them for Kaiser,.... in the end perhaps Kaiser is just one step ahead of them and take the match 1-2 but i do like this will be a very entertaining 2-2 score.

 

Cologne v Cottbus
over 2.5 goals -115 - 1.15 to win 1 unit
Cottbus played an under last round but it was more about St Pauli then Cottbus - 2-0 home win and a fairly wide open game even up 2-0...St Pauli had multiple chances in the 2nd half and just couldn't finish. Koln with a very slow start by their standards and do have promotional desires. Koln with just 1 goal in 3 matches but it appears both Sandhausen and Braunschweig are going to be tough matches at the start and Aue is tough to break down at home. So slow start but not all surprising ... replacing Podolski is a tough ask even if he is 0-2 as a Gunner. I do think Cottbus will continue their open play style because it has been successful this year and years ago - last year they nearly were relegated because they thought playing defense might work....glad to see the offense is back and certainly Sanogo is in form early on scoring 3 goals in 3 matches. In the end i do think Cologne get their first win of the year as Cottbus open play might cost them but no clean sheet....perhaps 2-1 but hopefully another wide open crazy II match.

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so far just 5-5 in German II

short comments about 2 of the 'bigger matches' ... Furth will be confident today vs Mainz and Friday can produce underdog winners...Furth certainly looked good vs Bayern but that was always going to be a tough task. Mainz 1-1 vs Freiburg and certainly ended last season in poor form. Furth +0.5 +110 would be my play and might be but going to wait for the 3 II before i bet more....

 

the UEFA Super Cup will be hard not to bet for me - i would caution betting chelsea for the simple reason that the EUROPA/UEFA Cup champs play very tough and by no means is it a CL slam dunk. Barca needed extras to beat Shakthar, Zenit beat Man U, and A Madrid beat Inter in the last 4 years. Only last seasons 2-0 Barca over Porto has the CL team won in 90 mins vs EUROPA champs. Certainly Chelski playing well and both clubs don't have to worry about a quick league match so it should be full squads. I watched a madrid on the weekend and they look great....pinny have both to score at -130 and Falcao to score anytime at +157...those would be my two plays but i know USA books usually don't offer props like that. Maybe no bet but i see all three (home/Draw/visitors) happening so good one to skip for me.

GL today and this weekend....may the transfer deadline be kind to you and your club.
 

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i've been betting football enough to know duisburg to score next goal is a play of the year pick.....not betting it nor recommending it but in german footy scoring early and playing for 1-0 bites you in the ass around the 68th min...i was watching dresden so i don't know is duisburg has shown interest. Hopefully some early 2nd half goals or another long weekend ahead.
 

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probably 2-1 day.......good enough for one more bets in my head... - mainz home record last season against teams in furth spot worries me too much to take furth +0.5....i tend to bet things because they seem important to the non-football world which is probably not wise but i will take a stab at the Super Cup.

UEFA Super Cup
Chelsea v Athetico Madrid
both teams to score -133 - 1.33 to win 1 unit
i don't think it is offered in USA so maybe the over 2.5 and hope for a winner is good....for me though 1-1 would win it. Funny both team totals are set at a 1.25 mark so it kinda looks like the bookies expect both to score. No Terry for Chelski should help falcao and co. and certainly chelsea will be looking for an early trophy....i think this game ends in 90 mins with a 1-2 2-1 winner...1-1 HT and work on the 3rd would be nice.

GL...not sure what's wrong with Koln....big surprise for me that they just cannot score.
 

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tweet of the year "DEADLINE DAY: Arsenal have confirmed the signing of Korean forward Foo Kin No Wan"......

chelsea should have went after Flacao and maybe they had a chance today - Messi, C Rinaldo, Falcao...that has to be top 3 right now in my books.
 

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Saturday September 1st
German Bundesliga II
Aalen vs. Braunschweig
under 2.5 goals -133 -1.33 to win 1 unit
you won't see too many german II unders by me and certainly the unders have been poor of late 0-3 to be exact. Aalen has played 2 overs in 3 matches but scoring against dismal duisburg isn't too tough and kaiserlautern do play more open style football with overs. Aalen are coming off a 0-1 road win vs bochum. Braunsweig played an over last round vs paderborn (2-1 winners) and two 1-0 wins. Their only road match was a 0-1 win over union berlin. Last season Braunschweig played just 6 overs in 17 road matches and 10 of their last 11 domestic road matches have been unders. Aalen just had 7 overs at home in the 3 liga and Braunschweig is a very hard team to break down....i don't know braunschweig true desires in the league - i suspect promotion isn't in the works but games like this it is important to win and braun win by playing a defensive style on the road. To me 0-1 home side but perhaps 0-0 1-1.

i like st pauli in the other match but i will wait for them to start winning before i would back them...sandhausen might be playing better then they really are but st pauli yet to win vs sandhausen yet to lose....and you'd need st pauli to win by 2+ ... can't do it...but i would not take +1 because st pauli will break out soon enough...and probably saturday

Germany 3 Liga:
Offenbach vs. Burghausen
over 2.5 goals -104 -1.04 to win 1 unit
Offenbach 3 overs in 3 home matches - Wacker Burghausen 3 overs in 3 road matches. H2H in Offenbach have seen 5 overs in 7 matches in all competition. Last season match ended 2-2 in Offenbach and 2-3 in Burghausen. Offenbach have played 5 overs in 7 league matches this season and 4 straight overs. Unders h2h have been 2-0 scores so plenty of goals in these matches.

England Premier League
West Ham v Fulham
both teams to score: YES -138 - 1.38 to win 1 unit
sorry about another prop bet USA books might not have but i could see a 1-1 score as fulham is settling with their players. The stat that stands out to me is in West Ham H2H vs Fulham 7 straight matches were both teams scores...two 1-1 scorelines so maybe the over instead of both to score might be a tough wager....i see over 2.25 at -134 which i would probably take if BTTS isn't available. 4 out of 6 h2h in Fulham side of London have seen both teams score. 9 out of the last 12 home matches seem both teams score. Fulham lost 3-2 to man utd in their 1 road match this season and crazy enough played 8 road matches prior to that were both teams didn't score.....

England Leauge One
Crawley v Leyton Orinet
Crawley -0.75 -120 -1.20 to win 1 unit
since promotion to league one, crawley have won 2 out of 3 league matches and have 2 cup wins against championship sides Millwall and bolton. Very impressive...the lose came on the road vs swindon - a team that was promoted along with them, finsihed higher in league two and won last years fixture by the same 3-0 scoreline. The two league 2 wins came against championship relegation side Doncaster and Scunthrope (a team that finished 2 points of leyton last season and another relegation potential. Leyton finished one spot clear of relegation and so far look likes they may drop down the league two by season's end. So far 0-2 in league one and coming off a cup trashing from everton ... leyton have lost 8 of their last 9 road matches and the 1 road game they played this year. Add the small fact that leyton had to play wednesday in the cup while crawley played tuesday. Form, at home, and much more rested Crawley really should take care of business.

MK Dons v Carlisle
over 2.5 goals -114 - 1.14 to win 1 unit
mk dons 3 unders so far this year and although i don't agree with the 'due factor' i do think it is time mk dons plays a high scoring game. MK Dons have players returning and should be riding high beating blackburn in the cup match 2-1. Carlisle scored 4 against pompey and defeated ipswich in the cup. 2 overs in 3 matches for carlisle with a 1-1 score being the only under..H2h in Milton Keynes have seen 4 overs in 4 matches with 3 having 3+ goals in them. In Carlisle all 4 h2h were overs as well....so h2h 8 matches all seen 3+ goals and actually 7 of the 8 had 4+ so maybe over 3.5 might be a good big odd bet....I don't necessarily think MK are due for an over since the first 3 were unders and they are a more over friendly side but i do think Carlisle has shown they have goals in them and certianly history is on our side...add the return to some MK Dons players and Carlisle missing a defender and we should have 3+ goals
---
i'm suppose to be away all morning/afternoon so i don't think i'll be playing anything else...but still waiting for a phone call so maybe i will.

GL
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Overall Record:
51-43-3 +4.44 units
September: 0-0-0 0 units
August 46-36-2 +8.14 units
 

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1/2 a winner...so this week 1-0, 5-1, 0-3, 3-1 and 1-4...10-9 ---- crazy swings...i guess i should fade myself. I missed every match (so much for a good deed doesn't go unpunished). Fulham 3-0 suprised me a bit and i still can't hit an under. I care year-to-year more than day-to-day but this week just has been weird for me.

guess i should go 3-0 4-1 tomorrow if the patterns hold true. Sorry for anyone that followed today --- brutal. And Arsenal says returning players from injuries are the reason we didn't dip into the transfer market...hmm....it's not like sagna, wilshire and diaby get hurt often...except they always get hurt.

Don't get it....gl tomorrow...i need a drink
 

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news keep getting worse for cocktail as city drew aston villa in the capitol one aka carling cup...i know how much he loves that cup. United drew Newcastle which i imagine sir alex will play team b and probably lose out...chelsea drew wolves and liverpool drew (already losers to) WBA. And the good news is Arsenal drew Coventry....

between group stage and this cup - if we had a full team this would be a great day....it's a shame hearts didn't at least force extra vs liverpool both for sunday and for pure satisifaction that liverpool cannot beat Hearts in a two-leg affair....oh well....

gl this weekend - hopefully better than the last one for me...ps don't bet arsenal to win but i suspect we might get 1 vs liverpool

i couldn't tell if you were being cheeky or not with the bad news aspect of the ol' carling cup draw.....albeit the cl draw was dregs...but like roll said...sooner or later as we move on in years the draw will be more polite to us..but drawing villa(a team i picked to be relegated this year w/$backing that statement up)is not anything i will get my panties in a bunch about...me, 5 of my brothers, you(if you play) and 4 others could rip villa a new one...and send them down to the championship in the wink of an eye...let them go way of pompei..the 2nd division beckons...cheers
 

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if city wasn't so deep perhaps villa would be tougher....a full squad vs an EPL team B would still be tricky....except Man City Team B is better than everyones Team A so yeah - i don't see any problems. City could have caught a CL break in Pot D but drawing Dortmund was a bit unlucky...but it true Madrid/Barca were tough to avoid since EPL sides dominate the pot. If Arsenal do qualifying to the knockout round (which i think we will with an easy draw) it was justify all that is happening...we almost need a 7th place finish, knocked out of the group stage and lose to conventry and our first FA Cup to get changes...

if we lose to liverpool it'll really sting because they really are dreadful..........and i fear we will be them for 3-4 years.
 

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if the trend for the week continues i should do well on sunday but there is no reason to think it will be automatic. Starting with early morning matches - i am nearly convinced on newcastle but every match they have 3-4 key players listed as probable so i have to wait for lineups....a poor early morning and i'll probably pass the whole day.

Sunday September 2nd
German Bundesliga II
Paderborn v Ingolstadt
Paderborn -105 -1.05 to win 1 unit
Ingolstadt continues to get too much repect from bookies imho on road matches...just 2 road wins last season and 4 the year before. Their 1 road match they did manage a draw vs St Pauli but St Pauli have started very poor by their standards. Ingolstadt are coming off a 2-0 home lost to a poor travelling team FSV Frankfurt. Paderborn won their only home match 4-0 vs Bochum, drawing hertha and losing to Braunschweig are not terrible road matches. Padeborn won this fixture last year 4-1 and were an impressive 9-2 with 6 draws at home last year. Paderborn might have promotional thoughts but i think will come up short but should beat up on teams like ingolstadt at home...

i still like fsv frankfurt to keep getting results but never as a favourite and more likely as a pick and +0.5...no value and aue is a tricky side. I havent followed Jahn enough to suggest a bet in that one.

Scotland Premier Leauge
Hearts v Dundee
Hearts -1 -1.27 - 1.27 to win 1 unit
hearts might be a bit tired after a hard faught matches vs liverpool but i think the last match will bring more positives then anything. Hearts must think they can compete vs anyone in the SPL and perhaps grab the 2nd place spot this year since rangers are playing in the 4th division. After the 1st match vs Liverpool I took Aberdeen pk vs hearts and a got a push with a 0-0 score...but it was a road match and Aberdeen is a potential middle of the table side....this match is at home and vs a promoted side Dundee that is likely to be in a battle for SPL survival all year. So far Dundee 1 draw and 3 losses and are yet to score in 4 matches and St Mirren, Ross and Kilmarnock are three sides that are not anything special. Dundee Utd did beat them 3-0 which is a side Hearts will be in competition for a Europe Spot. Dundee actually finished 24 points behind promotion last season in the 1st division but were promoted along with Ross because of the demotion of Rangers. Dundee played a cup match the day before Hearts' EUROPA match so Dundee not all that rested compared to Hearts. That cup match was a loser to 3rd divison Queens Park.. Hearts with just 1 win and 3 draws this year but they won 1 home match and drew 2-2 in the other on a 90 +4 mins of stoppage time goal from inverness...i think EUROPA effected their league play a bit and now that it is over they can start on their full SPL campaign. Dundee are the perfect team to get back going....seems to be draw round in the SPL with all 4 matches ending the draws so far so hopefully a winner tomorrow.
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there is a decent chance of the over hitting in the liverpool v arsenal match..arsenal yet to score in 2 matches but liverpool defense and keeper have been gifting goals to other teams...certainly h2h have seen goals and this could be a big battle to see who finishes 5th so both teams will want to win outright...a lot of people are giving the match to arsenal but they probably haven't watch the same team i do...i don't bet Gunner matches so nothing for me.
Newcastle -0.75 or -1 will proabably be my 3rd morning bet but waiting for news.
 

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forgot to add record....and the bad sept start:
Overall Record:
52-47-3 +0.05 units
September: 1-4-0 -4.39 units
August 46-36-2 +8.14 units
 

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ingolstadt scores two goals on basically two chances and were gifted the 2nd one...paderborn should have 3 or 4 goals if they could hit the net from 7 feet away...frustrating game to watch .. if they keep getting chances i could see a 2-2 final but hard to find 3 goals and if they do press Ingolsadt probably gets the third....still might take newcastle but before that:

German Bundesliga I
Wolfsburg v Hannover
over 2.5 goals -135 - 1.35 to win 1 unit
if you only have the 2.75 or 3 i'd still take it but you may 1/2 a winner/push it. Wolfsburg started the year with a 1-0 win over Stuttgart but had 23 overs in 34 league matches last season and 12 overs in 17 home matches. Hannover just 8 over in 17 road matches last season but 12 of 17 had at least 2 goals. Despite a Northern Derby we see plenty of overs h2h - 6 of the last 7 have been overs in wolfsburg (2-0 home win the under). 5 of the last 8 in Hannover have gone over but the last 3 were unders. Hannover 2-2 in their first match and destroyed Slask Wroclaw winning both matches 5-3 5-1...certainly wolfsburg will be tougher but they typically can score vs anyone but i think home side takes...2-1 or 3-1 if we get lucky
 

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haha....dundee yet to score in 4 matches....1 min in and a penalty and a Dundee goal...not my day for sure....not my year to be honest...
Newcastle full lineup pretty much but line is a bit fishy and i am in no mood to bet anymore soccer so skipping it.
 

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was hoping for gunners 4-0 just so i could see the scousers in a relegation spot. would've been my new avatar :)
 

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haha....dundee yet to score in 4 matches....1 min in and a penalty and a Dundee goal....
and now just missed a penalty of their own in 26th. ugh
 

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haha - liverpool looks like the arsenal of old with the bad goaltending and brutal defense...nice pass gerard. Yeah i was hoping for more - Giroud needs to score soon or he might Torres himself out of here....but now 3 clean sheets in 3 matches looks really good. You gotta wonder what's going on with Hearts - perhaps being knocked out with such drama is effecting them but yeah giving up a PK and then not scoring from one is brutal

2-1 hearts is just a +400 so i have hope but i don't think scottish sides outside of celtic overturn HT scores very often...maybe 1-1 .... at least Hannover showed up for me to make it 1-2 or with some luck 1-1-1....

VfB Stuttgart Team Total -0.5 -134 was quite tempting for me but only if it was a positive day for me - stuttgart 7 out of 8 matches h2h in munich with a goal .. last year was the only time they didn't score and certainly munich is a shutout master. But i liked it. No play though.

GL rest of the day - i do hope newcastle wins for the board...and of course Southampton wins for the laughs..j/k...
 

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C Rinaldo 'The people know the reasons why I didn't celebrate the goals. I don't do so when I am feeling sadness' --- had he lost a family member i'd understand but he's said it was professionally motivated....i know people think footy players are soft but WTF...you don't celebrate goals vs your old club - i like that - but to not celebrate because of an internal reason pretty pathetic...

Maybe i'll put Falcao ahead of C Rinaldo now. Anyone catch the liverpool match? ;)
 

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Overall: 53-49-3 -1.27 units
September: 2-6-0 -5.71 units
August 46-36-2 +8.14 units

all that i gained in august gone in 2 days in septemeber.....new week so hopefully more consistent winning....

Monday September 3rd
Sweden Superettan
Degerfors vs. Falkenberg
over 3 goals -110 - 1.10 to win 1 unit
needed 4 is always tough but degerfors 7 over 3.5 goals in 10 home matches and 9 over 2.5 goals in 10 home matches. Falkenberg 6 overs in 10 road matches and 14 overs in 21 total matches. Degerfors with 11 overs in 15 home matches last season including a 1-3 lost to falkenberg. In fact h2h in Degerfors - 3 straight matches over 2.5 goals and two matches with 4 goals. Degerfors 9 overs in their last 12 but are coming off a 0-0 match. (on the road). Degerfors only under at home was a 2-0 home win vs landskrona. Falkenberg 6 straight over 2.5 goals with plenty of 4+ scores. And 6 of the 7 last road matches for Falkenberg have been overs.

Finland Veikkausliiga
Inter Turku v Vaasa
under 3 goals -143 - 1.43 to win 1 unit
i've been brtual on unders lately but sticking with it and -143 is about the highest i'll go with the juice. If you have under 3 around -150 -163 i'd probably take the under 2.75 but to be honest under 3 is a must line for me. I would never take the under 2.5 even with a decent pay out. I think both sides would settle for a 1-1 type scoreline and although Inter are atop the standings and great at home, Vaasa are the best road side and a -175 is a bit silly to me. Strong push chance as Inter played 7 overs (2.5 goals) in 13 home matches and 4 straight home matches. Vaasa just 3 over 2.5 goals in 12 road matches (although 2 straight road overs). 2 of Vaasa's 3 overs were in matches they won and i don't see them winning this one. The reason i like the under 3 is when you look at the under 3.5 stats....Inter with 6 under 3.5 goals in 9 home matches - Vaasa have only played 2 matches with more than 3 goals in 23 league matches and just 1 in 12 road matches. (3-3 vs HJK)...the 3 Inter over 3.5 matches came against three sides at the bottom of the standings. There are far too many 2-1 home wins for Inter to trust the under 2.5 here and certainly recent matches lends itself to goals here. But i think Vaasa will treat this match much like they have the other top teams (minus HJK) - 1-0 losses to TPS and Mypa and 0-0 vs Mariehamn..they seem to struggle to score against the top sides but keep the match very tight. To me 1-0 2-0 home side but 2-1 wouldn't surprise me.

Norway Tippeligaen
Stabaek v Rosenberg
over 3 goals -143 -1.43 to win 1 unit
Another high juice play and 3.25 isn't so bad. I think the hard faught match for rosenberg in the europa will effect rosenberg today. Rosenberg were trailing 0-1 to Legia and scored twice in the 69th and 87th min to advance 3-2 on aggregate. Certainly a day to celebrate and then back to league play. Stabaek are desperate for points as they sit dead last and 10 points from safety. The last 10 Stabaek matches have seen at least 3 goals and they have scored at least 1 goal in their last 10 matches. Rosenberg have drawn 10 times in 20 matches and certainly their Europe campaign have effected their league play but now that the group stages are coming up they should be able to get back to league action. I do think Rosenberg but tired legs and a desperate Stabaek should score. A lot of 2-1 1-2 matches H2H so perhaps this pushes but Stabaek playing 1-3 1-4 matches and Rosenberg will be looking to win and move 1 point away from a CL spot. 1-3 seems to be the right score here.

I like Hertha and Sligo (Ireland) to cover their spreads but not going to bet it yet. GL and hopefully everyone has the day off today
 

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1-1-1 with a chance for better if we can get 1 goal in the sweden match....definitely not assuming that because it happens too often for 0 goals in the 2nd half...just nice to end the under streak i was on....norway bet is pretty much toast....quick rosenberg goal could result in a push

German Bundesliga II
Union Berlin v Hertha Berlin
over 2.5 goals -129 - 1.29 to win 1 unit

i like Hertha to win but Union is a very good home side and no question this is the match they'll want to win. Derby matches tend to be tight but both sides cannot be happy at their current position and should not be looking for a 1-1 type draw here. (like in 2010). Hertha 3 overs in 3 league matches and the win vs Jahn should restore confidence after the FSV and Worms matches. Union started nicely with a 3-3 draw to Kaiserlautern but two straight defeats see them with 1 point after 3 matches. Hertha's defense still a question mark and fans should be pretty wild...not a #1 derby at least for Union and they simply haven't played enough...perhaps a rival derby in the makings but nothing like Arsenal v Tottenham or Columbus v Toronto (hahaha) so derby rules (if they actually exist) not a factor imho.

Ireland
Sligo v Bohemians
Sligo -1 -142 - 1.42 to win 1 unit
big juice keeps coming today and maybe -1.25 is the better play but under my odds personal rule so i took it...anything above -150 i'd take the -1.25. Sligo just 1 lost this year and 7 wins 4 draws at home. Draws Cork, Bray, St Patricks and Derry - 2 tough teams, Cork in the middle of their Europe attempt and bad draw vs Bray. Last two home matches 3-0 UCD and 4-1 to 2nd place Drogheda United. Bohem 3-7 with 1 draw on the road - 3 straight losses to Drogheda United, St Paticks and Derry - all 3 top 5 sides.

id write more but noticed german II matches starts in 15 min.......gl and hopefully an early 4th goal in sweden
 

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