well i just typed my write up for the 3 matches today and clicked submit only to have the internet down and lost everything ... so i'll do it again but probably less of a write up then usually....i really should type it in word first
Overall Record: 48-42-3 +2.59 units
August: 43-35-2 +6.29 units
Friday August 31st
German Bundesliga II
1860 Munich v MSV Duisburg
1860 Munich -1 +100 - 1.00 to win 1 unit
i will warn the forum that this will be a very popular play but for me until Duisburg show signs they belong in German II i'll fade them every game. Duisburg 0-3 so far losing to two promotion 3 liga sides including a home match vs Aalen and a tougher loss on the road to Dresden. But losing 4-1 to Aalen and 2-0 to Jahn Regensburg are brutal results. The only positive result for Duisburg was a 1-0 cup win vs 3 liga side Halle. 1860 with postive start to the year despite just 1 win in 3 matches. 1860 won their only home match 1-0 to Jahn Regensburg and draws on the road to Dresden and Kaiserlautern are decent. 1860 Munich definitely have promotion desires finishing just 5 points out of a promotion playoff spot last season. Duisburg, at the start of the year, appeared to be one of favourties for relegation and so far that is holding true. H2H in Munich, 1860 4 wins and 2 draws in 6 match since 2004. Last season they won both matches vs Duisburg 2-1 and 0-3.
Dresden v Kaiserslautern
over 2.5 goals -118 - 1.18 to win 1 unit
Dresden at home was a big reason i did so well in the German Bundesliga II. Dresden 11 overs in 17 home matches and you probably know i like german II overs.
So far this year Dresden 3 over in 3 league matches (4 for 4 if you count the cup) and drew 1860 Munich 2-2 in their only home match of the year. 2-2 seems like a logical scoreline for this one. Kaiserlautern are coming off a 0-0 match (i think it was raining buckets for the match but i might be wrong) - prior to that Kaiser played 2 overs including a 1-2 win on the road vs Aalen. (their only road match). Counting their cup match, Kaiser 3 overs in the first 4 matches. It is easy to be inspired to score in front of Dresden fans and it will be hard to keep a clean sheet against them for Kaiser,.... in the end perhaps Kaiser is just one step ahead of them and take the match 1-2 but i do like this will be a very entertaining 2-2 score.
Cologne v Cottbus
over 2.5 goals -115 - 1.15 to win 1 unit
Cottbus played an under last round but it was more about St Pauli then Cottbus - 2-0 home win and a fairly wide open game even up 2-0...St Pauli had multiple chances in the 2nd half and just couldn't finish. Koln with a very slow start by their standards and do have promotional desires. Koln with just 1 goal in 3 matches but it appears both Sandhausen and Braunschweig are going to be tough matches at the start and Aue is tough to break down at home. So slow start but not all surprising ... replacing Podolski is a tough ask even if he is 0-2 as a Gunner. I do think Cottbus will continue their open play style because it has been successful this year and years ago - last year they nearly were relegated because they thought playing defense might work....glad to see the offense is back and certainly Sanogo is in form early on scoring 3 goals in 3 matches. In the end i do think Cologne get their first win of the year as Cottbus open play might cost them but no clean sheet....perhaps 2-1 but hopefully another wide open crazy II match.
----
so far just 5-5 in German II
short comments about 2 of the 'bigger matches' ... Furth will be confident today vs Mainz and Friday can produce underdog winners...Furth certainly looked good vs Bayern but that was always going to be a tough task. Mainz 1-1 vs Freiburg and certainly ended last season in poor form. Furth +0.5 +110 would be my play and might be but going to wait for the 3 II before i bet more....
the UEFA Super Cup will be hard not to bet for me - i would caution betting chelsea for the simple reason that the EUROPA/UEFA Cup champs play very tough and by no means is it a CL slam dunk. Barca needed extras to beat Shakthar, Zenit beat Man U, and A Madrid beat Inter in the last 4 years. Only last seasons 2-0 Barca over Porto has the CL team won in 90 mins vs EUROPA champs. Certainly Chelski playing well and both clubs don't have to worry about a quick league match so it should be full squads. I watched a madrid on the weekend and they look great....pinny have both to score at -130 and Falcao to score anytime at +157...those would be my two plays but i know USA books usually don't offer props like that. Maybe no bet but i see all three (home/Draw/visitors) happening so good one to skip for me.
GL today and this weekend....may the transfer deadline be kind to you and your club.