Dial Square's 2012-13 Thread

[DialSquares]

when you can't cap a -333 you know it is still a bad run...still 27 mins but i expected 2-0 by now...who knows what a madrid will do to.

i like some champions league plays and actually doing well in the compo so i'll keep grinding but this is getting pretty frustrating.

ps sorry to anyone following me these last few days.......it's one of the big reason i could never be a tout - if i got paid for this i'd be giving everyone their money back.

 

[varkeyboy]

Just keep at it brotha. Good luck!

 

[DialSquares]

i figured if i whined like a school girl during a game it would turn my way....haha...nice to have the second one go so easy. Malmo took 87 mins but eventually won. Not out of the slump but it makes posting CL plays a little easier...gl tomorrow...i read college football starts soon so that must be nice for some people

 

[DialSquares]

i did the Capitol One Cup 'research' last night and should look at CL shortly ... so far 5-2 in the Capitol One and 9-4 in the CL so hopefully winning continues....

Tuesday August 28th
England Capitol One Cup - some books might still call in Carling Cup
-reminds me that pinny still calls EUROPA the UEFA Cup..haha..

Aston Villa v Tranmere
Aston Villa -1 -118 -1.18 to win 1 unit
i'm buying into the hype from manager Paul Lambert about fielding a strong team and looking to avoid an embarassing loss to middle of the table League One side. (at least by season's end.) Certainly Tranmere off to a decent start winning 2 and drawing one but they did need extras to beat league two side Chesterfield in round one. Villa 0-2 to start the EPL campaign - Everton was always going to be tough and West Ham first home game returning to the EPL so maybe 0-2 is less concerning them some think. Villa last three opening rounds have been win vs Hereford, win in round 3 vs Blackburn and win vs Cardiff. (2 out of 3 wins by 2+) As for Tranmere, they always seem to lose to the Champ/EPL sides losing out to Doncaster, Swansea, and Bolton. (2 out of 3 losses by 2+). Backing EPL sides at this stage is a bit risky and certainly Villa not doing well in the EPL but i do think it is a bit of an overeaction and if they do field a strong side I think they should take care of Tranmere...2-0 3-0....

Burnley + Leicester double -133 -1.33 to win 1 unit
after saying a rare double yesterday already another one today.....i think both Championship sides win but i just don't trust either with the handicap...

Plymouth won their first round one cup match since 2007-08 beating a pompey team that, at the time, was a non-team. (i am sure an assitant manager played in the match for portsmouth). Plymouth survived relegation from league two by 2 points last year and so far 1 point in 3 matches, the draw being against equally poor dag and red. Burnley is well known for the cup runs and giant killers beating teams like chelsea, arsenal, fulham, and have reached the 3rd round (and further) every year since 2006-07. Burnely won their lone home match in the championship 2-0 and lost two road matches. They already beat Port Vale away which is a much stronger league two club. A few extra time needed for burnley early in the competitions over the years so tough to take them to win by 2+ by very strong chance to win imho....cl

I backed Leicester last round and i think this team is poised to make a big cup run and perhaps semi-finals if the draw goes their way. Impressive enough 1st round win for Burton but you have to think Sheffield's priority is staying in the Championship. Burton lost 3-0 on the road vs Rotherham and are coming off a 0-1 home loss to Fleetwood town. (promoted Conference National side). Leicester have two players returning Sean St Ledger and Zak Whitbread and a bunch of players eager to prove themselves. St ledger played 28 matches last season and Zak 18 for EPL side Norwich..both defenders so that should strengthen the defense. 2 straight Championship losses for Leicester both on the road and 1 against relegated EPL side Blackburn and League One promotion Charlton first home match returning to the championship...always going to be tough matches. They cruised past league two side Torquay in round one and beat P'boro 2-0 in the championship.

So 2 Championship vs 2 league two (which both finished near bottom last season). Hopefully two easy enough victories.

Doncaster v Hull
Doncaster pk +110 - 0.90 to win 1 unit
taking hull to be bounced out has been profitable over the years...even this year you probably could have got Rotherham +0.5 and won as hull needed extras to beat them. League Two relegated side Macclesfield beat Hull 2-0 in round one last year, league one Brentford beat Hull 2-1 in round 2 two years ago (hull 1st round bye), three years ago Hull beat Southend in round two (at home) and lost 4-0 to everton in round three on the road, and four years ago Hull lost 2-1 to Swansea (i think was a league one side at the time.). So in 4 years Hull won 2 cup matches - one this year in extra and one vs Southend at home.

Doncaster themselves haven't faired very well in the cup either - wins vs Notts and they needed extras to beat league two York in the first round. Hull just 1 win in 3 Championship matches and are coming off a 0-0 draw to League One promotion side Charlton. Doncaster, relegated from the Championship side last season, have two wins in League one losing 0-1 in the 87th min. vs Crawley. Doncaster h2h record vs hull since 1997 - 4 wins and 5 draws (including 3 friendlies.) I definitely could see a draw here but i like the odds for a home win and certainly hull has proven that the cup isn't a big focus for them over the years.

GL today - Champions League might have better plays

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Nice record in the Capitol One.

Any of these get streamed? Curious to see a match.

 

[rolltide]

forest match and coventry match streaming for sure but others unlikely

 

[DialSquares]

yeah if you have a bet365 account you can watch the two matches rolltide says...i think clubs don't want TV so fans are forced to go watch because cup attendance is usually pretty poor. Games are on the same time as CL...eventually these cup matches get on tv though. Once Man City, Utd, Arsenal..etc...start playing

 

[DialSquares]

well my leans in CL were Anderlecht -1 and overs in the braga and maribor games. I am not taking the opposite of ARUK/Magica and not fully convinced on the overs...1-1 for both matches quite possible....2 more plays though...

German 3. liga
Heidenheim v Chemnitz
over 2.5 goals +107 - 0.93 to win 1 unit
Heidneheim 5 overs in 6 matches and 3 overs in 3 home matches. The lone under being a 1-1 draw after 51 mins last round vs Munster. (munster just 5 overs in 19 home matches last season). Chemnitz started off with 2 unders but since then 3 overs in 4 league matches (4 in 5 with a cup match). Last years fixtures ended 3-2 in Heidenheim and 3-0 for chemnitz at home.

Capitol One Cup
Yeovil v WBA
WBA -138 -1.38 to win 1 unit
since 2004-05 WBA have won their first one matches every year except one...I went back as far as 03-04 and Yeovil has never made it past the 2nd round. WBA many decent cup runs and the last 2 years in round two beat League One sides Bournemouth 4-1 and 2-0 vs Leyton. Yeovil will be full of confidence winning 3 and drawing 1 in their first 4 league one matches. It should be noted that the 4 clubs they've played have a grand total of 1 win so far between them. So, although impressive start, i do wonder if it is the competition more than the start for yeovil. Yeovil's been a 14th-18th place team every year since losing out to blackpool in the 06-07 promotional match vs blackpool. WBA will be equally (if not more) full of confidence with their start to the year....beating Liverpool 3-0 and drawing 1-1 to Tottenahm makes them one of my favourite sides this year and reading team news appears this is top priority cup for them. I really hope Markus Rosenberg starts along with James Morrison...waiting for lineups probably smart but line is moving away from WBA and could be -150ish by kickoff...a good start to league one compared to a start in EPL are two different things. WBA finished 10th in the EPL last season and i doubt have a relegation worry and i equally doubt Europe is in their sites so Carling/FA Cup is something that they can fully concentrate on.

 

[DialSquares]

well i don't take very many live in play but i watched most of the first half in the Stuttgart match and they look like they are going to score...dinamo have no choice but to open it up if they want a chance at the group stages. If Stuttgart scores early enough (or Dinamo too) it should make this even more wide open and imo that first half was very open. Good chances in the first half from both sides and perhaps a penalty non-call. 1 goal would be 1/2 a loser which i think is worth the risk...

UEFA EUROPA
Dinamo v Stuttgart (at HT 0-0)
over 1.25 goals -114 - 1.14 to win 1 unit.
-------
Overall Record 2012-13:
43-38-3 +2.42 units.
August: 38-31-2 +6.12 units

 

[rolltide]

sunderland, stoke, swansea, qpr all strong teams tonight

fulham over looking good. villa not best squad and burnley's nothing but subs so i'm avoiding them. same with WBA with only 1 starter from last weekend playing tonight

 

[rolltide]

looking at Soton's lineup tonight i'll say Stevenage gets the EPL scalp from L1....

 

[DialSquares]

i actually like villa's and burnley's lineup ... WBA lineup is shockingly poor...James Morrison talks up the game and isnt even in the lineup. Decent bench and i think Rosenberg/Long duo is so much better than Reid/Hayter but hopefully they make quick subs if the game is tied 2nd half. But certainly WBA not looking like the care so much about this cup. (knocks my ass i say to their website) But I don't believe in internet posting 10-20 mins before kickoff so i take my chances with lineups....i can't see the point of posting with 3-5 mins before kickoff - i realize it is the smart way to bet but generally the lineups don't surprise me. But it does perhaps cost a few plays a year .. hopefully Rosenberg nets a couple

 

[DialSquares]

i saw too many punters on stevenage so i stayed away..but i agree of all the EPLs team to go down it might be them...maybe wigan

 

[rolltide]

shocker in stoke. this lineup down 2-0 HT against Div 1? yikes (i would make a Gunners mention but will just leave it alone since it's your thread...ha)

crazy really with regular defense + pennant, whitehead, cameron, jerome, jones, kightly? i figured easy 2-0 3-0 home win

 

[DialSquares]

leicester still favoured to win despite 1-0 down...i just hope they can win it 90 mins. But yeah stoke losing big surprise..and thanks for not kicking me while i am down with the arsenal remark. Arsene says we aren't done buying so maybe he can get messi, xavi, gomez and huntelaar before the window closes.

need an early leicester goal and doncaster might as well score again...

 

[rolltide]

rough fn beats for me today. AEL concedes in final minute and the HC push becomes a loss

Bate score on final kick in match to get the draw and push my Shmona pk

f**k

 

[DialSquares]

i was watching the Anderlecht match and AEL time wasting was getting so annoying...i was glad anderlecht scored thinking at least you guys would push but definitely didn't like the 2nd....anderlecht deserved the win imo but yeah not by 2+. I did lose 2 today but fortunately for me it was leicester and burnley (89th min penalty for Plymouth). But a red card probably helped the Doncaster win. 5-1 day if you count the live in play...i'll take it

sorry for your beats....try and think back for a lucky late breaks...i can never remeber any 2 days after it happens but i know it happens

 

[DialSquares]

i dont think i would change my mind over night and i'm convinced team news is accurate....leaning celtic to win even being up 2-0 and not needing a win and borussia +0.5 a little tempting. As for Carling - Everton clearly should win but i would never take an EPL team to win by 3+ in a cup match...not even city v a conference national.

Wednesday August 28th
UEFA Champions League
CFR Cluj v Basel
Basel pk +100 -1.00 to win 1 unit
over 2.5 goals -133 -1.33 to win 1 unit
i think basel will overturn the 2-1 deficit despite being on the road and qualify to the group stages. There is a vast diffence between Swiss and Romania footy esp between Basel and Cluj. Last year Basel was the top road team in Switzerland losing just twice in 17 road matches. Basel did lose on the weekend on the road but with this match in their minds it is easy to understand. In the group stages last season they manage road draw vs Benfica and the mighty Manchester United. Basel drew 1-1 to molde at home and went to norway and won 1-0. Cluj proves they can score and have played 6 straight overs in romanian and in the cl. Basel have played 14 straight matches where they have scored at least 1 goal, cluj have played 20 straight matches scoring at least 1. both to score pays around -175 which is just a little short for me. I think Basel was the better team but watching highlights i think basel let cluj hang around. And by trying to force a 2-0 lead gave up two quick goals. I don't think they fear a deficit in Romania to be honest. Basel are experienced group stage team going through the qualifying process twice in the last 4 years. Cluj have played in group stages over the years but with the automatic entry from winning their domestic league. Final score 1-2 and extras very possible but i think we might see a 1-3 type game and basel goes through...i would lean the over instead of the side as 2-1 with more counter attack goals possible.

i might take celtic as a third play but going to wait for that.

gl

 

[DialSquares]

woke up to news the Gunners might be losing Walcott....that would be the end of any CL dreams for next season...there are many games even with RVP where Walcott was the best player - we don't have a midfielder like him - Alex in 5 years maybe - so if we sell him i'm convinced the owners just want the money and perhaps after 16 years time to move on...i doubt it but it is getting harder and harder to see the profits like 75 million pounds in 2011 but not enough money to buy players.

As for today's matches - i'm more tempted to back Barca pk then the over today - for me i'm waiting for the first 3 plays i have before i play more...

1 play to go with the basel and the over in cluj...

Norway Adeccoligaen
Tromsdalen UIL vs Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger
in norway I road sides have only won 32% on matches so tricky...interestingly enough road sides have won/drawn 56% of the match so a push/win percentage is in our favour. Tromsdalen is a very typical nordic promoted side - early start was promising and have since tailed off as the season progresses. Trom won 3 of their first 6 league matches and just 1 loss in their first 5 home matches. Since then 2 wins in the last 11 matches and 6 straight losses. Kongsvinger had a 4 game unbeaten streak end last round losing 2-0 at home to Mjondalen (who are 4th in the league). Kong just 3-2-4 on the road. 3 of the 4 road losses came against Mjondalen (4th), Ranheim (5th) and Sandefjord (3rd). Only a loss to 10th place Strommen would be a road match they probably should have won/drew. I don't know if Kongsvinger has realistic promotion desires but a win would put them within 2 points of a playoff spot. Form is certainly on the visitors side - i wouldn't take them outright but certainly the draw no bet line is tempting enough for me.

german 3 liga looks very tough today so no plays there. I think Hodd win easy enough but you have to go back 8 games to find a win by more than 1 goal so the AH not very attractive.

GL today - my CL leans were
Celtic -1
over in fenerbahce
borussia +0.5
but only playing the two in the basel match.

 

[DialSquares]

i guess the bet should read:

Norway Adeccoligaen
Tromsdalen UIL vs Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger pk -117 -1.17 to win 1 unit

record should be updated when i come home....it helps me so shouldn't be too many complaints