yeah i watch the whole first half and turned it off...the curious nature in me and most sports fans I had to click and saw 4-2 around the 70th...so i stuck with it. I would have been floored seeing 7-5 had I not gone back. But the Arshavin run that lead to the winning goal was something we've seen from him before. I just wish he could do that always - but this piss poor passes and wild shots in the 1st half is why he isn't a first team player. I think he has value coming off the bench if we need a goal and the opposite side if letting us control play but to be in charge of creating chances from the midfield in - little value. I think Liverpool Team B could lose today but i will await lineups.
i do plan on posting captiol one now ... i gots leans.....but waiting for lineups
i did a german cup two teamer - not sure if the over 3 is available to usa punters...if wolsburgh is over 3.5 or 3.25 i'd pass myself.
German Cup
Hannover + Wolfsburg/Frankfurt over 3 +130 - 0.76 to win 1 unit
hannover certainly is taking this years europa seriously so i imagine with a slow start to the year they will look at the cup as a way to play next year as well. I am sure they would like to qualify by the league but cup run is always good and german clubs take it seriously. Dresden is struggling in II divison and should bounce out.
I don't rate wolsburgh all that high and -400 is the biggest joke of the day...that being said FSV Frankfurt is still a poor away side even with a decent start to II division. In the end Wolfsburg probably takes it - like Bochum last night - but I am thinking 3-1 with a couple late goals. Maybe FSV scores first and early and this can sail over.....
should be back with england cup in an hour........
i did a german cup two teamer - not sure if the over 3 is available to usa punters...if wolsburgh is over 3.5 or 3.25 i'd pass myself.
German Cup
Hannover + Wolfsburg/Frankfurt over 3 +130 - 0.76 to win 1 unit
hannover certainly is taking this years europa seriously so i imagine with a slow start to the year they will look at the cup as a way to play next year as well. I am sure they would like to qualify by the league but cup run is always good and german clubs take it seriously. Dresden is struggling in II divison and should bounce out.
I don't rate wolsburgh all that high and -400 is the biggest joke of the day...that being said FSV Frankfurt is still a poor away side even with a decent start to II division. In the end Wolfsburg probably takes it - like Bochum last night - but I am thinking 3-1 with a couple late goals. Maybe FSV scores first and early and this can sail over.....
should be back with england cup in an hour........
says 10 out of 11 changed for united with rafael the only player starting that played on the weekend starting.....so far lineups from twitterland
spurs - Lloris, Walker, Dawson, Caulker, Naughton, Livermore, Carroll, Falque, Sigurdsson, Bale and Dempsey
norwich - Bunn, Whittaker, Turner, Snodgrass, Howson, Surman, Fox, Morison, Butterfield, Tierney & R. Bennett
chelski Cech (c); Azpili, Cahill, D Luiz, Bert; Rom, Mik; Moses, Mata, Piazon; Sturr. - subs: Hil, Fer, Saville, Ram, Oscar, Haz, Marin
man utd - lindegaard, rafael, keane, wooton, buttner, nani, fletcher, anderson, giggs, hernandex, welbeck
no stars on the bench..chelsea looks stronger and i think we might see 3 goals with these guys but i don't know....lots of nobodies....i like chelsea to win though with mata being the difference.
liverpool - Jones, Robinson, Coates, Carragher, Henderson, Shelvey, Allen, Cole, Assaidi, Yesil, Downing
Swansea Tremmel, Tiendalli, Williams (c), Chico, Richards, Britton, de Guzman, Ki, Dyer, Hernandez, Michu
gerard and cry baby saurez on the bench so they could rescue it late but hard to pick a side in the liverpoool match. Spurs look pretty good but i would never trust them - CL is there only goal i think. Chelsea - yeah Mata is in but better in the back then the front ... under 3 looks good but man utd lineup wasn't out yet
spurs - Lloris, Walker, Dawson, Caulker, Naughton, Livermore, Carroll, Falque, Sigurdsson, Bale and Dempsey
norwich - Bunn, Whittaker, Turner, Snodgrass, Howson, Surman, Fox, Morison, Butterfield, Tierney & R. Bennett
chelski Cech (c); Azpili, Cahill, D Luiz, Bert; Rom, Mik; Moses, Mata, Piazon; Sturr. - subs: Hil, Fer, Saville, Ram, Oscar, Haz, Marin
man utd - lindegaard, rafael, keane, wooton, buttner, nani, fletcher, anderson, giggs, hernandex, welbeck
no stars on the bench..chelsea looks stronger and i think we might see 3 goals with these guys but i don't know....lots of nobodies....i like chelsea to win though with mata being the difference.
liverpool - Jones, Robinson, Coates, Carragher, Henderson, Shelvey, Allen, Cole, Assaidi, Yesil, Downing
Swansea Tremmel, Tiendalli, Williams (c), Chico, Richards, Britton, de Guzman, Ki, Dyer, Hernandez, Michu
gerard and cry baby saurez on the bench so they could rescue it late but hard to pick a side in the liverpoool match. Spurs look pretty good but i would never trust them - CL is there only goal i think. Chelsea - yeah Mata is in but better in the back then the front ... under 3 looks good but man utd lineup wasn't out yet
liverpools lineup is trash - gerard and saurez might come off the bench to rescue the match but i don't see this swansea side losing by 2+ - line has already shifted so hopefully it stays put. I think spurs with their linup wins but i don't bet them very often and hard to know actual plans with the cup. I went with goals in the united clash because i think there are still strikers out there and so many overs between the two sides this season and 2-3 on the weekend. Kinda like el classico - you wonder after why you didnt bet the over.....i think chelsea is stronger and at home so 2-1 and a push or 3-1 3-2....so:
Liverpool v Swansea
Swansea +1 -125 - 1.25 to win 1 unit
Chelski v Manchester United
over 3 goals -117 -1.17 to win 1 unit
with the german double listed above....gl if you play...and go Norwich!
Liverpool v Swansea
Swansea +1 -125 - 1.25 to win 1 unit
Chelski v Manchester United
over 3 goals -117 -1.17 to win 1 unit
with the german double listed above....gl if you play...and go Norwich!
i don't really bet arsenal matches - if i take the over i'd have to cheer for united goals....3-0 arsenal just doesn't sound right. I wonder how midweek will effect both sides....i like the over and probably would recommend it but no bet for me there..yeah over 9.5 goals might be a tough bet....haha.....damn saurez just scored...norwich winning and i thought swansea cruise....with the gunners win and chelsea losing i thought this was going to be a fantastic carling round.
waiting around all day and snowing so i thought i'd check out some soccer matches....
Swden Allsvenskan
Mjallby v Elfsborg
Elfsborg -111 - 1.11 to win 1 unit
i know I lose these types of bets now and then but I just can't help betting these types. With just 2 matches left (1 for most) Mjallby is safe from the relegation zone. With Malmo nearly guaranteed to win (-700 today) Elfsborg need a win to stay tied in points with them for 1st and the only CL spot available in Sweden. Malmo will be in tough vs AIK next round where AIK could be fighting for a EUROPA spot...so realistically Elfsborg win here they have a decent shot at winning the title. A draw here with a Malmo loss in the final match would put them through but they are tied in goal difference so I guess Elsborg could technically pull ahead if they can beat Mjallby by more than whatever Malmo beat Orebro (already relegated). There are plenty of reasons not to take Elsborg - they play artifical turf and Mjallby on grass, pressure of Elfsborg can effect the way they play (playing for 'nothing' can produce results as we see in baseball and other North American sports) and Mjallby have won the last 2 h2h meetings at home. But for me Elsborg havent won the title since 2006 and with such a tough match for Malmo next round and an easy enough home game for Elfsborg I just think they will have too much for Mjallby - a team that lost at home against AIK, Hacken, Helsingborg and Norrkoping (teams ranked 3rd-6th). Only good home result a draw vs Malmo but very early in the season.
Hacken v AIK
Over 2.5 and 3 -124 - 1.24 to win 1 unit
game of the day - if it wasn't in sweden - but Hacken sit in 3rd and 2 points clear of AIK in the final EUROPA spot for next year. AIK play Malmo at home which as i pointed out above could decide both Europa and the Championship/CL. Hacken travel to Sundsvall in the last round which probably not but could decide Sundsvall relegation fate. Trying to win against teams fighting for their elite division lives on the road is always a tough battle. So Hacken, no doubt, will try and wrap up 3rd today. Because of their insane goal difference a draw would be good enough for hacken but that would be a dangerous attitude and i think a typical home game will be played. Hacken 13 overs in 14 home matches - one 1-1 draw vs Djurgarden early in the season. AIK with just 1 over in 5 league matches and EUROPA play has effected them - but a few 1-1 scores. I could see 1-1 i guess but with so much riding on this one I think both score and AIK forced to try and win it could be caught. AI think Hacken wins it in the end - they will be more match fit because they don't play midweek matches. But it really is a crap shoot on the side --- hopefully a 3-1 1-3 type score...early goal for either side would blow this one wide open i think.
before you take Malmo -2 because of the idea of goal difference potential deciding the champioship, Orebro since being relegated have been very tough to beat. In their last 18 matches just AIK could beat them by more than 1 goal. That includes Elfborg 1-0, Helsingborg 1-1 and Hacken 2-1. Certainly Malmo should win and probably by a couple of goals but not worth the gamble imo....no bet there. And the 4th swedish match is tough call.....
going to try and find a third match either in the spanish cup or *gulp* Italy Serie A but just two for now...be back soon...gl
Swden Allsvenskan
Mjallby v Elfsborg
Elfsborg -111 - 1.11 to win 1 unit
i know I lose these types of bets now and then but I just can't help betting these types. With just 2 matches left (1 for most) Mjallby is safe from the relegation zone. With Malmo nearly guaranteed to win (-700 today) Elfsborg need a win to stay tied in points with them for 1st and the only CL spot available in Sweden. Malmo will be in tough vs AIK next round where AIK could be fighting for a EUROPA spot...so realistically Elfsborg win here they have a decent shot at winning the title. A draw here with a Malmo loss in the final match would put them through but they are tied in goal difference so I guess Elsborg could technically pull ahead if they can beat Mjallby by more than whatever Malmo beat Orebro (already relegated). There are plenty of reasons not to take Elsborg - they play artifical turf and Mjallby on grass, pressure of Elfsborg can effect the way they play (playing for 'nothing' can produce results as we see in baseball and other North American sports) and Mjallby have won the last 2 h2h meetings at home. But for me Elsborg havent won the title since 2006 and with such a tough match for Malmo next round and an easy enough home game for Elfsborg I just think they will have too much for Mjallby - a team that lost at home against AIK, Hacken, Helsingborg and Norrkoping (teams ranked 3rd-6th). Only good home result a draw vs Malmo but very early in the season.
Hacken v AIK
Over 2.5 and 3 -124 - 1.24 to win 1 unit
game of the day - if it wasn't in sweden - but Hacken sit in 3rd and 2 points clear of AIK in the final EUROPA spot for next year. AIK play Malmo at home which as i pointed out above could decide both Europa and the Championship/CL. Hacken travel to Sundsvall in the last round which probably not but could decide Sundsvall relegation fate. Trying to win against teams fighting for their elite division lives on the road is always a tough battle. So Hacken, no doubt, will try and wrap up 3rd today. Because of their insane goal difference a draw would be good enough for hacken but that would be a dangerous attitude and i think a typical home game will be played. Hacken 13 overs in 14 home matches - one 1-1 draw vs Djurgarden early in the season. AIK with just 1 over in 5 league matches and EUROPA play has effected them - but a few 1-1 scores. I could see 1-1 i guess but with so much riding on this one I think both score and AIK forced to try and win it could be caught. AI think Hacken wins it in the end - they will be more match fit because they don't play midweek matches. But it really is a crap shoot on the side --- hopefully a 3-1 1-3 type score...early goal for either side would blow this one wide open i think.
before you take Malmo -2 because of the idea of goal difference potential deciding the champioship, Orebro since being relegated have been very tough to beat. In their last 18 matches just AIK could beat them by more than 1 goal. That includes Elfborg 1-0, Helsingborg 1-1 and Hacken 2-1. Certainly Malmo should win and probably by a couple of goals but not worth the gamble imo....no bet there. And the 4th swedish match is tough call.....
going to try and find a third match either in the spanish cup or *gulp* Italy Serie A but just two for now...be back soon...gl
regarding your Mjallby match i have a swedish tipster friend that was keeping track of Elfsborg games away on real grass and they have like 1 win since mid 2011. no idea what turf mjallby uses (real grass or artificial) but if it's grass that'd be a big concern for me
here you go...
The away win would be a very safe bet if it wasn’t for one thing. Elfsborg has a terrible record on real, natural grass. They are almost unbeatable on the artificial grass of their own home arena and they often win away against other teams that play on synthetic grass. But they have only one win on real grass since the summer of 2011. This is remarkable for a top team, especially since more than half of the teams in Allsvenskan play on real grass. (This season Elfsborg and six other teams play on synthetic grass). Not only don’t they win, they often fail even to claim one point on real grass. The only exception is when they beat GAIS away, but GAIS is the by far worst team in the league and Elfsborg didn’t score 2-1 until the 94th minute.
The away win would be a very safe bet if it wasn’t for one thing. Elfsborg has a terrible record on real, natural grass. They are almost unbeatable on the artificial grass of their own home arena and they often win away against other teams that play on synthetic grass. But they have only one win on real grass since the summer of 2011. This is remarkable for a top team, especially since more than half of the teams in Allsvenskan play on real grass. (This season Elfsborg and six other teams play on synthetic grass). Not only don’t they win, they often fail even to claim one point on real grass. The only exception is when they beat GAIS away, but GAIS is the by far worst team in the league and Elfsborg didn’t score 2-1 until the 94th minute.
I realize two matches hardly break a streak like that but after the late winner vs GAIS they did draw 1-1 vs AIK who play on grass. Certainly a good result and AIK is far above Mjallby. The recent road loss to Norrkoping was on the turf so last two grass results 1 win and 1 draw. The poor grass results haven't changed simply because of two matches but with everything i wrote about Mjallby losing to top clubs and the importance of a road win I thought it was good enough to not keep me away. Time will tell of course......
good to bring up other thoughts and opinions about matches though..benifits the forum more than guys that blindly play and then bitch you out when it loses......god i hate those people. GL this weekend .... of course i only mean the bets and not the EPL match.
good to bring up other thoughts and opinions about matches though..benifits the forum more than guys that blindly play and then bitch you out when it loses......god i hate those people. GL this weekend .... of course i only mean the bets and not the EPL match.
so many chances for hacken....i guess the hacken player was offside with the disallowed goal but the angle made it hard to tell...i think AIK decided at HT to take their chances on the next round because they hardly tried to score....not how i thought the 2nd half was going to go that's for sure...i really wish i went with the orebro +2 too.....oh well...1-1 so adding a play
Copa Sudamericana
Independiente v U of Catolica
Independiente -123 -1.23 to win 1 unit
u of catolic have made it to the 1/8th round but not by their road play. They lost 3-1 to both Atletico Goianiense and Tolima and drew Blooming 1-1. In the case of Tolima and Athetico GO they had 2-0 leads so they could afford a road loss but still not very good to barely qualify with those scores. Independiente drew Boca 0-0 at home but beat Liverpool 2-1 at home. Independiente struggle in the league but 5 straight wins and won this cup in 2010. Perhaps U of Catolica take the tie but i think Independiente take the 1st leg 2-1 sounds good.
gl
Copa Sudamericana
Independiente v U of Catolica
Independiente -123 -1.23 to win 1 unit
u of catolic have made it to the 1/8th round but not by their road play. They lost 3-1 to both Atletico Goianiense and Tolima and drew Blooming 1-1. In the case of Tolima and Athetico GO they had 2-0 leads so they could afford a road loss but still not very good to barely qualify with those scores. Independiente drew Boca 0-0 at home but beat Liverpool 2-1 at home. Independiente struggle in the league but 5 straight wins and won this cup in 2010. Perhaps U of Catolica take the tie but i think Independiente take the 1st leg 2-1 sounds good.
gl
whenever i add night games it bites me....i thought we had it when it became 2-1....
German Bundesliga II
Jahn v Paderborn
Paderborn pk -122 -1.22 to win 1 unit
i suspect a popular play but Paderborn need to catch back up to the rest for promotion and Jahn is 2-3rd worst side. Jahn have 3 wins this year - last place Duisburg, 3rd last Sandhausen and St Pauli in a mess. Koln, Cottbus and Bochum all win on the road vs Jahn. Paderborn's 4 game winless streak ended on the road vs a much tougher Union Berlin. On the road just Cottbus and Bruanschweig have managed wins - both were out of the cup so no worries about being tired. I could see a draw but i do think Jahn will struggle to get any points the rest of the year.
Hertha Berlin should win but i don't like betting against clubs with good form and Ingolstadt just 1 loss in 8 matches including road wins vs Paderborn and a home draw vs Kaierlautern. To me Hertha will be far too strong and probably win quite easy in the end but no bet. And Braunschweig should cruise too but i rarely take -1.5 -2.0 in german II....the double hertha/Braunschweig was tempting as well but better bets for me elsewhere...
German Bundesliga I
E. Franfurt v Furth
E. Frankfurt -1 +104 -0.96 to win 1 unit
two teams promoted last year but started the I season much different...Furth two straight draws vs Bremen and Hoffenheim are good results but still 1-3-5 scoring just 6 goals. E Frankfurt 6-1-2 this year and 4 wins and 1 draw in 5 home matches and drawing Dortmund. Wins vs Hannover, Frieburg, Hamburg and Leverkusen....some really good sides. German I is known for teams to rise very quickly and it does appear E. Frankfurt is one of those clubs. And E. Frankfurt is a tradition german I team that just spent one year in the II whereas Furth spent many years in the 2nd division. Second goal to win the bet will be tough but i do like E. Frankfurt a lot to win....
Norway Tippeligaen
Fredrikstad v Odd Grenland
under 3 goals -116 - 1.16 to win 1 unit
dangerous to bet unders in Norway but it must be just as cold there as it is here...and odd with just 3 over 3.5 goals in 13 road matches this year. In the last 6 matches for odd just 6 goals scored and 4 goals against. Fredrikstad must win and could be a very tight start...Odd was a big over side in the 2nd division but not so much in the first division esp at the over 3.5 mark. Push a strong possibility but i think 1-1 maybe 1-0 home win.....
gl today
German Bundesliga II
Jahn v Paderborn
Paderborn pk -122 -1.22 to win 1 unit
i suspect a popular play but Paderborn need to catch back up to the rest for promotion and Jahn is 2-3rd worst side. Jahn have 3 wins this year - last place Duisburg, 3rd last Sandhausen and St Pauli in a mess. Koln, Cottbus and Bochum all win on the road vs Jahn. Paderborn's 4 game winless streak ended on the road vs a much tougher Union Berlin. On the road just Cottbus and Bruanschweig have managed wins - both were out of the cup so no worries about being tired. I could see a draw but i do think Jahn will struggle to get any points the rest of the year.
Hertha Berlin should win but i don't like betting against clubs with good form and Ingolstadt just 1 loss in 8 matches including road wins vs Paderborn and a home draw vs Kaierlautern. To me Hertha will be far too strong and probably win quite easy in the end but no bet. And Braunschweig should cruise too but i rarely take -1.5 -2.0 in german II....the double hertha/Braunschweig was tempting as well but better bets for me elsewhere...
German Bundesliga I
E. Franfurt v Furth
E. Frankfurt -1 +104 -0.96 to win 1 unit
two teams promoted last year but started the I season much different...Furth two straight draws vs Bremen and Hoffenheim are good results but still 1-3-5 scoring just 6 goals. E Frankfurt 6-1-2 this year and 4 wins and 1 draw in 5 home matches and drawing Dortmund. Wins vs Hannover, Frieburg, Hamburg and Leverkusen....some really good sides. German I is known for teams to rise very quickly and it does appear E. Frankfurt is one of those clubs. And E. Frankfurt is a tradition german I team that just spent one year in the II whereas Furth spent many years in the 2nd division. Second goal to win the bet will be tough but i do like E. Frankfurt a lot to win....
Norway Tippeligaen
Fredrikstad v Odd Grenland
under 3 goals -116 - 1.16 to win 1 unit
dangerous to bet unders in Norway but it must be just as cold there as it is here...and odd with just 3 over 3.5 goals in 13 road matches this year. In the last 6 matches for odd just 6 goals scored and 4 goals against. Fredrikstad must win and could be a very tight start...Odd was a big over side in the 2nd division but not so much in the first division esp at the over 3.5 mark. Push a strong possibility but i think 1-1 maybe 1-0 home win.....
gl today
thought we were finally posting a clean sheet...nope
never seen a united team miss this many penalties in a year let alone miss this many by nov 3. getting fn sick of it
gunners have some serious issues...cazorla non-existent for 94:14 (other than his spiking down a cross) and giroud was, yikes. arshavin obviously needs a scenery change and walcott again doesn't start (and not even sure he touched ball in 40' on pitch). if wenger wasn't still living off the invincibles he'd be collecting unemployment
never seen a united team miss this many penalties in a year let alone miss this many by nov 3. getting fn sick of it
gunners have some serious issues...cazorla non-existent for 94:14 (other than his spiking down a cross) and giroud was, yikes. arshavin obviously needs a scenery change and walcott again doesn't start (and not even sure he touched ball in 40' on pitch). if wenger wasn't still living off the invincibles he'd be collecting unemployment
even i am getting tired of the 'getting out of the group stages of the cl' run arsenal is in with arsene....top 4 and a knockout round is all good and really the goal to start the year but no trophies and really poor signings is getting old. Last 5 matches have been brutal...giroud and podolski must be caught up in the london nightlife because they have been a non-factor for at least a month....out of the group stages and 6-7th would see arsene gone. Arsene knows how to manage a side but not one were players leave so early in their careers. If he had RVP, Fabergas etc....we'd probably be alright but he just can't sign players that are suppose to be in their prime. And that's how EPL football is now and time for him to go.....still a great run i think despite no trophies for a long time.
Arsenal should have paid RVP.................WHATEVER HE WANTED!!!
ARSENAL = CHEAP PRICKS
Arsenal executives and management are an embarassment to their supporters, the EPL and all football pundants world wide. Today's display was catastrophic.
The Gunner fans must me going ape-shit when they see their Dutchie scoring every match and the French-Schnitzel Connection looks like they lost their way home on the pitch.
They have no offense and now that every team has caught on (shut down Carzola's space) it will get worst before it gets better. November should be very rocky for the Goons.
ARSENAL = CHEAP PRICKS
Arsenal executives and management are an embarassment to their supporters, the EPL and all football pundants world wide. Today's display was catastrophic.
The Gunner fans must me going ape-shit when they see their Dutchie scoring every match and the French-Schnitzel Connection looks like they lost their way home on the pitch.
They have no offense and now that every team has caught on (shut down Carzola's space) it will get worst before it gets better. November should be very rocky for the Goons.
you can't go against a philosophy when it comes with paying players...once you do it for one guy the rest will be looking for it....I guess Arsenal believes that the system is broken and instead of playing ball just go down with the other clubs that cannot spend that money. The only difference is we could spend more. For me i'm in favour of not paying RVP his price but the issue was why give it to our biggest rival over the years. Why Juve or Madrid didn't work out i don't know....probably waited to long to deal. But for me I'd rather the Arsenal approach to winning than the Chelsea and Man City version....even if it is making the Arsenal (and me) look like a fool. Too bad players like Nasri, Fabergas, Clicky, Toure, RVP etc....don't see it that way because you add those players back onto Arsenal and dump Gervinho, Podolski, Santos, Arshavin etc.....we'd be right up there. So blame Arsenal for not playing the EPL game or go down with the club until some kind of salary restriction gets put into place....in the year 2085. (same year goal line technology will be used)
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English Premier League
WBA v Southampton
over 3 +107 - 0.93 to win 1 unit
I think WBA will win but odds are a bit short and i don't see them winning by 2+. But it is very hard not to bet overs featuring Soton and WBA 3 straight overs. All 4 Soton's road matches have seen at least 4 goals. I don't usually look at other matches to predict another match but two games do stand out. West Ham managed a 4-1 road win vs Soton and WBA beat QPR 3-2 at home. WBA and West ham similar records and exact Gf:Ga and QPR and Soton both both dwellers with 4 points. Like I said not usually a motive for betting but Soton and overs working all year.
German Bundesliga II
Kaiserlautern v Aue
Kaiserlautern -1 -106 - 1.06 to win 1 unit
Kaiser drawing far too much to be fully confident but Aue have struggled on the road - 0-1-4 drawing 1860 and only 1 home team failed to win by more then 1 goal. Kaiser two home wins have come against bottom table clubs Sandhausen and Duisburg. 3 of the 4 draws for Kaiser at home have come against strong sides: Hertha, Union and Braunschweig. So although to gain promotion Kaiser need to win, drawing those teams isn't all that bad. They really should have too much for Aue today.
Norway - Tippeligaen,
Sogndal v Valerenga
Sogndal -0.25 -132 - 1.32 to win 1 unit
the straight win pays more but i like the draw cover. I think if Valerenga hadn't beaten Fredristad (who are in a similar position as Sogndal) I would take the straight win. It is this time in the season where relegation zone teams fight a little bit harder esp at home against clubs that cannot qualify for europe or do not fear relegation. Sognal sit one point clear of a playoff relegation spot and 2 points clear of relegation itself. Their last 4 home matches 2 wins and 2 draws - wins vs 4th Tromso and a draw vs 2nd. Valerenga just 5-7 on the road and 11 points behind a EUROPA spot. Just 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 road matches and losing to Aalesund and Haugesund are not good results. The fear is Valerenga have been beating the other relegation zone sides so the bet is mainly on the motivation and good home run for Sognadal. I'd be much more confident on the pk line but odds too short. Home sides like this situation win often enough and hopefully today as well.
gl today
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English Premier League
WBA v Southampton
over 3 +107 - 0.93 to win 1 unit
I think WBA will win but odds are a bit short and i don't see them winning by 2+. But it is very hard not to bet overs featuring Soton and WBA 3 straight overs. All 4 Soton's road matches have seen at least 4 goals. I don't usually look at other matches to predict another match but two games do stand out. West Ham managed a 4-1 road win vs Soton and WBA beat QPR 3-2 at home. WBA and West ham similar records and exact Gf:Ga and QPR and Soton both both dwellers with 4 points. Like I said not usually a motive for betting but Soton and overs working all year.
German Bundesliga II
Kaiserlautern v Aue
Kaiserlautern -1 -106 - 1.06 to win 1 unit
Kaiser drawing far too much to be fully confident but Aue have struggled on the road - 0-1-4 drawing 1860 and only 1 home team failed to win by more then 1 goal. Kaiser two home wins have come against bottom table clubs Sandhausen and Duisburg. 3 of the 4 draws for Kaiser at home have come against strong sides: Hertha, Union and Braunschweig. So although to gain promotion Kaiser need to win, drawing those teams isn't all that bad. They really should have too much for Aue today.
Norway - Tippeligaen,
Sogndal v Valerenga
Sogndal -0.25 -132 - 1.32 to win 1 unit
the straight win pays more but i like the draw cover. I think if Valerenga hadn't beaten Fredristad (who are in a similar position as Sogndal) I would take the straight win. It is this time in the season where relegation zone teams fight a little bit harder esp at home against clubs that cannot qualify for europe or do not fear relegation. Sognal sit one point clear of a playoff relegation spot and 2 points clear of relegation itself. Their last 4 home matches 2 wins and 2 draws - wins vs 4th Tromso and a draw vs 2nd. Valerenga just 5-7 on the road and 11 points behind a EUROPA spot. Just 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 road matches and losing to Aalesund and Haugesund are not good results. The fear is Valerenga have been beating the other relegation zone sides so the bet is mainly on the motivation and good home run for Sognadal. I'd be much more confident on the pk line but odds too short. Home sides like this situation win often enough and hopefully today as well.
gl today
5 plays today - i will comment of Crystal Palace - everything but the odds leans towards C Palace - great form, higher standings, at home etc...but near even odds. Being midweek and at even that is a big sucker bet. C Palace might still win but i'm tired of losing these type of bets.
UEFA Champions League
Andrelecht v Zenit
over 2.5 goals -101 - 1.01 to win 1 unit
No Hulk for Zenit has to be a positive sign for Zenit today - despite the amount they paid he just hasn't clicked with the other players. And if you watched/remember his display last round i can see why. I see a much more positive Zenit display and much like 2010 win both home/away matches vs Andrelecht. Two weeks ago I took the over 2 only to lose after a first 10 min goal followed by nothing. I think andrelecht at home will have a few more goal scoring chances and will be in a much better environment. Both to score seems like a good chance - zenit gave up 3 vs Malaga and only 2 of 6 road matches has zenit kept a clean sheet (one match 0-3). Andrelecht yet to score in the group stages and lost 0-3 to malaga at home. 0-0 in milan was a great start to the group stage but since then very poor. Last chance for them for any EUROPA action and i think a forward moving andrelecht side....1-2 zenit in the end i think.
PSG v Zagreb
PSG -2 -113 - 1.13 to win 1 unit
although it will be tough i think Porto"PSG win in Kiev so far PSG it might come down to goals score if they can beat Porto at home in the final round. There is no doubt winning the group is key so you can avoid the big teams like Real, Barca, City..haha...United, BATE...etc...so beating up on the worst team in the CL group stages should be a high priority. PSG last round in Zagreb won 2-0 and i think it should be a similar scoreline but hopefully 3-0 4-0....PSG did beat Kiev 4-1 at home in their only home match. Zlatan to score anytime would be a play of the year but -350 it is tough...if you have him to score first might be an option. Three 2-0 defeats for Zagreb including two at home and really look outclassed in evey match..2-0 here cetainly possible but i really do think PSG will want to score as much as they can to try and secure a tiebreaker in case they are level on points with Porto.
no idea about arsenal - certainly their form suggests a schalke win but i would never bet that - goals could flow but only if schalke have own goals against them ... i wouldn't touch this one....
no more reasoning...
England Championship
Burnley v Leeds
over 2.5, 3.0 goals -115 -1.15 to win 1 unit
leeds 6 overs in 7 road matches and burnley certainly play many overs with 4 of their last 6 overs...lots of 4+ goals. Leeds 4 under match streak was finally snapped last round - 3 of the 4 were home matches. Pretty key match early on for both teams if they have promotion desires....
England League One
Coventry v Crawley
Crawley pk -101 -1.01 to win 1 unit
England - League 2
Exeter City v AFC Wimbeldon
Wimbeldon +0.5 -110 - 1.10 to win 1 unit
UEFA Champions League
Andrelecht v Zenit
over 2.5 goals -101 - 1.01 to win 1 unit
No Hulk for Zenit has to be a positive sign for Zenit today - despite the amount they paid he just hasn't clicked with the other players. And if you watched/remember his display last round i can see why. I see a much more positive Zenit display and much like 2010 win both home/away matches vs Andrelecht. Two weeks ago I took the over 2 only to lose after a first 10 min goal followed by nothing. I think andrelecht at home will have a few more goal scoring chances and will be in a much better environment. Both to score seems like a good chance - zenit gave up 3 vs Malaga and only 2 of 6 road matches has zenit kept a clean sheet (one match 0-3). Andrelecht yet to score in the group stages and lost 0-3 to malaga at home. 0-0 in milan was a great start to the group stage but since then very poor. Last chance for them for any EUROPA action and i think a forward moving andrelecht side....1-2 zenit in the end i think.
PSG v Zagreb
PSG -2 -113 - 1.13 to win 1 unit
although it will be tough i think Porto"PSG win in Kiev so far PSG it might come down to goals score if they can beat Porto at home in the final round. There is no doubt winning the group is key so you can avoid the big teams like Real, Barca, City..haha...United, BATE...etc...so beating up on the worst team in the CL group stages should be a high priority. PSG last round in Zagreb won 2-0 and i think it should be a similar scoreline but hopefully 3-0 4-0....PSG did beat Kiev 4-1 at home in their only home match. Zlatan to score anytime would be a play of the year but -350 it is tough...if you have him to score first might be an option. Three 2-0 defeats for Zagreb including two at home and really look outclassed in evey match..2-0 here cetainly possible but i really do think PSG will want to score as much as they can to try and secure a tiebreaker in case they are level on points with Porto.
no idea about arsenal - certainly their form suggests a schalke win but i would never bet that - goals could flow but only if schalke have own goals against them ... i wouldn't touch this one....
no more reasoning...
England Championship
Burnley v Leeds
over 2.5, 3.0 goals -115 -1.15 to win 1 unit
leeds 6 overs in 7 road matches and burnley certainly play many overs with 4 of their last 6 overs...lots of 4+ goals. Leeds 4 under match streak was finally snapped last round - 3 of the 4 were home matches. Pretty key match early on for both teams if they have promotion desires....
England League One
Coventry v Crawley
Crawley pk -101 -1.01 to win 1 unit
England - League 2
Exeter City v AFC Wimbeldon
Wimbeldon +0.5 -110 - 1.10 to win 1 unit
sometimes i read posts like varkeys and i am almost glad i lost today - i'll get the money back but knowing chumps like this guy lose a bit of money brings a small chuckle to me. Maybe i am even busted you on zenit over...that would be nice .... this forum is for the birds ... I don't know why i bother come here most days.
