thanks pocket - i do hope you do well in the parlays - i just cannot bet those - perhaps it will work out in the long run but it is just not for me....
once i finally move i will updating my record with the year - i hate the thought of being one of those guys that creates new records every 2-3 months....i am definitely down for the year. Since the new bets i am 5-6 -1.66 units. 1-4 saturday will take time to get back. So far 0-2 on totals and if that keeps up perhaps I will drop those. Too early to tell..2 plays today.
Spain Segunda
Real Madrid II v Rec Huevla
over 3 goals +106 - 0.94 to win 1 unit
Form and home/away combine - Real Madrid II 10 overs in 12 matches and 6 overs in 6 home matches. 7 of Real II 8 matches have been overs. Huevla 7 overs in 12 matches with 4 overs in 6 road matches. After starting the year with 2 road unders - 4 straight overs.
H2h - 2 matches both went over but no matches since 2005-06.
Recent/Upcoming game - same amount of matches play recent and just regular match next week.
Motivation: I don't think we can give an edge for one team over the other and betting the total anyway. Real Madrid II cannot be promoted so i guess Huevla could have more motivation to stay in the top of the league - but real madrid II players always playing for 1st team spots.
Team News: Chuli is Huevla's top goal scorer and he is out - 5 goals but Jonathan has scored 2 goals in the last two matches and Szymanowski 3 goals scored in the last 4. Couldn't find team news for madrid...
Weather - nice and sunny in madrid
Odds: near even for over 3 is pretty normal...2 of Huevla's 4 overs had just 3 goals
Recap: hard to go against the over when the Castilla are playing and Huevla's over record esp recent road matches. Huevla played Barca's B club recently and won 2-3...pretty similar records, goal difference etc....so i certainly could see another 2-3.
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French II
Lens v Caen
Caen pk -121 - 1.21 to win 1 unit
Form - Lens form isn't so bad - 3-1-2 with 1-1-1 at home. Caen is the hottest team in ligue deux 4-2 in their last six winning all 3 road matches. Lens 4 straight match without a loss but the highest ranked team they have played was Clermont and they drew 2-2.
Home/Away - Lens 2-3-2 at home, Caen just 1 road loss going 4-2-1. After a slow start on the road (loss and draw to bottom table clubs) Caen 4 wins and 1 draw ... drawing Sedan isn't a good result but they did beat teams close to Lens in the standings Nimes and laval and 3rd place Istres.
h2h - lens won last year's fixture 2-0 and drew in Caen (Caen did win in the cup). H2h is a worry but not enough recent matches to keep me away.
Recent/Upcoming Games: Lens has 3 days more rest but Caen hasn't played since the 5th so no problem..both have weekend cup matches vs lesser sides so no looking ahead either.
Motivation - French II is so tight taking 3 points whenever you can it is important so i don't think motivation plays a role. Caen can tie the top 2 clubs for a 3 way tie for first with a win. (2 goal win would put then in 1st of goal difference). But i don't think motivation is a factor today.
Team News - looking for Caen news but hard to find. I'm not going to pretend to know the importance of French II clubs and I never think missing in lower league matter but Lens are missing some players. Pierre Ducasse (12 appearances), Yoann Touzghar (9 appearances, 1 goal), Zakarya Bergdich (6 appearance) and Alaeddine Yahia (13 appearances - 1 goal). Certainly Ducasse/Yahia playing all or almost all matches they will be missed. Funny enough Bergadich was the only player with his pic. at soccerway and does play for Morocco's national side. I am looking for Caen news too but their website has nothing i can find.
Weather - nice and sunny in Lens.
Odds: Lens deserves to be favoured as they is only a small difference between top clubs to the bottom in french ii.
Recap: Certainly Lens current form is good - but i think it is the teams they are playing rather than the abilities. They barely managed to stay in the ligue last season and lost 4-0 to 2nd nantes, 0-4 to 1st Monaco, 1-3 to 5th Angers. and dres 7th and 8th place sides. So if Caen really is a top 5 club they will need the same results. Great form for Caen - the only worry is they do seem to put up a poor game a few times and i have no team news. Draw = money back looks good to me.
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just 2 today...gl.
ps old me would have grabbed st pauli -0.75 .. bochum sucks is the main reason. St Pauli starting to get results winning two and drawing two in 4. Bochum lost 6-1 to Aue of all teams last road match.....who knows if this is the true st pauli side we expected but i will wait for more wins before i back them as such a favourite.