Dial Square's 2012-13 Thread

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GO VIKINGS!
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Thanks for that last post Aruk, really get me down about the Gunners why don't you... haha!

Dial, days like this happen to all of us. I've been cold as hell for the last few weeks in Serie A. Just important to remember not to change how we cap games, it'll turn around shortly.
 
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Malaga was such a buzz killer... I had it for 3 units and also, I lost 3 4 team parlays just because of Malaga
 

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yeah malaga and toulouse both could have moved tied or pass the elite clubs of their leagues and both lost to bottom dwellers...i know pressure players put on stuff like that can cost teams....something to consider in the future i guess..

you can't help but look at last year ... RVP scores that penalty kick 100% of the time..it was such a shit shot and the fact that a semi-offensive midfielder is taking the penalties is pretty sad. although in brazil the keeper kicks then all the time...haha....for me it is all about silly cups and the CL. If we fail to qualify for the CL next year so be it...runs end. But if we can make it to the knockout stage and maybe get a nice draw who knows...and carling cup is a good chance...one time to celebrate lifting a trophy before Arsene leaves....that's my goal. I still in the end it will be top 4 place to lose....tottenham still pretending to be a club so top 4, knockout round and a cup win....i'm sure that is asking too much.

came home to see 0-1 west ham.....i left it was 2-0 west ham so something weird happened....gotta watch the highlights...2-1 day is enough for me....5-6 now - i could hype myself and say 2 out of 3 winning days but no one is paying me so no need....hahaha.....

I hope everyone honoured or honored the troops in their own ways today - it's snowy, windy, slushy but a lot of Timmins people came out to the ceremonies....I hate the war in Afghanistan but one thing it definitely did is renew the proud in the soldiers....gl rest of the day.
 

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thanks pocket - i do hope you do well in the parlays - i just cannot bet those - perhaps it will work out in the long run but it is just not for me....

once i finally move i will updating my record with the year - i hate the thought of being one of those guys that creates new records every 2-3 months....i am definitely down for the year. Since the new bets i am 5-6 -1.66 units. 1-4 saturday will take time to get back. So far 0-2 on totals and if that keeps up perhaps I will drop those. Too early to tell..2 plays today.

Spain Segunda
Real Madrid II v Rec Huevla
over 3 goals +106 - 0.94 to win 1 unit

Form and home/away combine - Real Madrid II 10 overs in 12 matches and 6 overs in 6 home matches. 7 of Real II 8 matches have been overs. Huevla 7 overs in 12 matches with 4 overs in 6 road matches. After starting the year with 2 road unders - 4 straight overs.
H2h - 2 matches both went over but no matches since 2005-06.
Recent/Upcoming game - same amount of matches play recent and just regular match next week.
Motivation: I don't think we can give an edge for one team over the other and betting the total anyway. Real Madrid II cannot be promoted so i guess Huevla could have more motivation to stay in the top of the league - but real madrid II players always playing for 1st team spots.
Team News: Chuli is Huevla's top goal scorer and he is out - 5 goals but Jonathan has scored 2 goals in the last two matches and Szymanowski 3 goals scored in the last 4. Couldn't find team news for madrid...
Weather - nice and sunny in madrid
Odds: near even for over 3 is pretty normal...2 of Huevla's 4 overs had just 3 goals

Recap: hard to go against the over when the Castilla are playing and Huevla's over record esp recent road matches. Huevla played Barca's B club recently and won 2-3...pretty similar records, goal difference etc....so i certainly could see another 2-3.
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French II
Lens v Caen
Caen pk -121 - 1.21 to win 1 unit

Form - Lens form isn't so bad - 3-1-2 with 1-1-1 at home. Caen is the hottest team in ligue deux 4-2 in their last six winning all 3 road matches. Lens 4 straight match without a loss but the highest ranked team they have played was Clermont and they drew 2-2.
Home/Away - Lens 2-3-2 at home, Caen just 1 road loss going 4-2-1. After a slow start on the road (loss and draw to bottom table clubs) Caen 4 wins and 1 draw ... drawing Sedan isn't a good result but they did beat teams close to Lens in the standings Nimes and laval and 3rd place Istres.
h2h - lens won last year's fixture 2-0 and drew in Caen (Caen did win in the cup). H2h is a worry but not enough recent matches to keep me away.
Recent/Upcoming Games: Lens has 3 days more rest but Caen hasn't played since the 5th so no problem..both have weekend cup matches vs lesser sides so no looking ahead either.
Motivation - French II is so tight taking 3 points whenever you can it is important so i don't think motivation plays a role. Caen can tie the top 2 clubs for a 3 way tie for first with a win. (2 goal win would put then in 1st of goal difference). But i don't think motivation is a factor today.
Team News - looking for Caen news but hard to find. I'm not going to pretend to know the importance of French II clubs and I never think missing in lower league matter but Lens are missing some players. Pierre Ducasse (12 appearances), Yoann Touzghar (9 appearances, 1 goal), Zakarya Bergdich (6 appearance) and Alaeddine Yahia (13 appearances - 1 goal). Certainly Ducasse/Yahia playing all or almost all matches they will be missed. Funny enough Bergadich was the only player with his pic. at soccerway and does play for Morocco's national side. I am looking for Caen news too but their website has nothing i can find.
Weather - nice and sunny in Lens.
Odds: Lens deserves to be favoured as they is only a small difference between top clubs to the bottom in french ii.

Recap: Certainly Lens current form is good - but i think it is the teams they are playing rather than the abilities. They barely managed to stay in the ligue last season and lost 4-0 to 2nd nantes, 0-4 to 1st Monaco, 1-3 to 5th Angers. and dres 7th and 8th place sides. So if Caen really is a top 5 club they will need the same results. Great form for Caen - the only worry is they do seem to put up a poor game a few times and i have no team news. Draw = money back looks good to me.
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just 2 today...gl.
ps old me would have grabbed st pauli -0.75 .. bochum sucks is the main reason. St Pauli starting to get results winning two and drawing two in 4. Bochum lost 6-1 to Aue of all teams last road match.....who knows if this is the true st pauli side we expected but i will wait for more wins before i back them as such a favourite.
 

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officially moved and not much time these days - i looked at CL games and just betting with the normal ways....

rotherham in league two fits the system except for h2h so no bet for me but they should win easy enough and cover the -1 line.


UEFA Champions League

Galatasaray v Man Utd
Galatasaray -0.25 - 1.24 to win 1 unit
i am buying into this Man Utd Young team doing nothing in such a harsh environment - perhaps man utd get a draw so betting the -0.25 for half money back. But i've seen this team B in action and they are pretty poor. Gala can maintain 2nd with a win esp if braga can get a result in cluj. Man U have beaten Besiktas and Bursaspor in Turkey but i think with a better squad.....a lot of people jumped on the gala wagon today so who knows.

Juve v Chelsea
over 2.5 goals -135 -1.35 to win 1 unit
i think juve pretty much has to win in order to qualify for the knockout round - Shakhtar probably beats up on Nords. and that means in juve fail to me could set 2 points behind chelsea and 3 behind shakhtar. With Juve's final match in the Ukraine and Chelsea playing Nords - a draw in the ukraine would be enough and it is very hard to win in the ukraine. So Juve knows a win here and maybe a result in the Ukraine will be enough. So I don't expect a tight lay back style game but much more open and aggressive. I wish i watched the WBA game but all 4 CL matches have been overs including 2-2 vs Juve in London. Juve 2 overs and 2 1-1 scores....the 1-1 line worries me but i think the need to win should produce at least a third goal...either a juve win or a chelski counter. 2-1 1-2...

Nordsjaelland v Shakhtar Donetsk
over 3 goals -104 -1.04 to win 1 unit
nords only scored 1 goal so far but it did come last home game in a 1-1 draw wih juve. I though if they ever managed a result it would be in this match. But Shakhtar seem to be set in the CL very well and shouldn't slip up like Juve did. But I think another goal for nords today at home. Juve scored 1 and Chelsea 3 and although Nords is not as offensively gifted they still proven they can score at home. Just 4 times they failed to score at home in 25 matches - and one was 0-4 chelsea. I really think Shakhtar will score early and often and perhaps conceed a meaningless type goal ... 1-3 0-3...the -2 AH was tempting but 1-2 wouldn't surprise me as shakhtar just needs results to qualify.

i kinda liked Celtic +1, Braga and Valencia +0.5 but just the three for today....gl
 

GO VIKINGS!
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I like your picks, staying away from United match as they still have quality with Anderson, Young, Welbeck, etc. But I do think Galatasaray can win.

How about Saturday's match? Gunners ran riot over AVB and Spurs. Loved it. Giroud is finally starting to score consistently, Cazorla has been by far one of the top signings in all of the EPL, Podolski starting to develop chemistry and what a fantastic header by Mertesacker!

Good luck today Dial
 

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doubt united can get anything tonight but not exactly lacking quality. Rafael/jones/Carrick/Buttner is likely defense, Anderson/Fletcher holding mid, Cleverley/Powell/Wellbeck with Chicharito up front. 7 of these 11 started in Chelsea in the league cup blowing that 3-2 lead with 94th minute penalty...6/11 started the Newcastle league cup match won 2-1.

when i think gala i think very weak defense. just 1 clean sheet in 11 matches and clearly this united club is not too defensively sound but can score. so i'd bet on over goals before a side personally (but i'm also very biased)
 

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I missed the arsenal match but saw the score and other scores and a great weekend for us. As long as WBA aren't for real I think top 4 is very much in our grasp again...time to believe again I guess...crazy couple of years.....

well i had just typed a boatload but click on an advertisment (elsewhere) and lost it all....i have no energy to retype so just picks today.....i really have to type it out on a word document first.....

Champions leauge
Zenit St. Petersburg v Malaga - 12:00 EST
Zenit St. Petersburg -129 -1.29 to win 1 unit

Schalke v Olympiakos 2:45 EST
Schalke -1 -131 - 1.31 to win 1 unit

Manchester City v Real Madrid
over 3 goals -122 -1.22 to win 1 unit

part of the over 3 in the city match is just hopping for another classic match like the first but both teams do score and conceed goals. Hard to know what city side will show up though...

as for the other matches you could 2 team Schalke with the Arsenal...i don't see us losing but i wouldn't bet them myself. Milan is too unpredictible to bet for me and Kiev v PSG is very tough one to call. I hate the idea that PSG just needs a draw because that could result in two totally different matches. Ajax +0.5 is also tempting but no bet

gl today
 

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Dial,

I am new to soccer, so this may be a dumb question. Please bear with me....
Why is Zenit favored in the match today versus Malaga?
Is it because Malaga has the top spot locked up in group C and they are resting players? Hard to imagine a team of professionals not caring about losing a match, but that may be the nature of soccer.

Or is Zenit just a better team? I know records don't tell the "whole" story of a club/team, but Zenit has a 1-3 record....

Thanks in advance for any education!
-D
 

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must-win match for zenit for either qualification or uefa cup while malaga are already through to the KO stage. so, like man u yesterday no reason to play anything but B team and malaga are not a big la liga club which means their B team is quite weak. also weather diff as st petersburg is cold (39 degrees) while malaga is beach town still 70 degrees

playing B team is good for me though as it allows Gooch to see some time in a CL match in central defense :) love the gooch! btw, this is only his 2nd appearance all season for malaga

 

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thesheriff - rolltide summed it up nicely. I do wish i didn't lose my writeup because i wrote a lot of that..including the fact that Malaga needs Rogue Santa Cruz to score. But it is just like Man Utd - Gala were favoured to beat a EPL Giant which even on the road never happens. So seeing that really should have jumped out at bettors. Zenit had a nice form going into this game too...


that being said - bet is already a loser.....i guess a ton of time left but i don't see a team like zenit coming back...wow....need the last 2

ps only -225 for malaga to win so still hope..haha..
 

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i would like to know why someone can't go 3-0 and follow it up by a good day...zenit played well enough to win but started so bad by the time they tied it up it was too late...kerzakov (spelled wrong) really should have had 4+ goals................man city really played like shite all game but esp. when they were up a man...wow...CL life on the line and up a man and they play like that.......all the EPL championships are meaningless as long as you can't do anything in europe....terrible performance.

of course - nice Arsneal win....podolski's goal was the first time a gunner reminded me of RVP......but a couple of winners were in my grasp but just not meant to be. GL in EUROPA if you play it...no bets for me....see you friday....
 

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you'll be top 4 for sure if this happens.... @):mad:

Manager Arsene Wenger has not ruled out bringing Arsenal legend Thierry Henry back for a third spell with the club.
The 35-year-old has been training at his former side's Hertfordshire base to maintain fitness following the end of the Major League Soccer season with New York Red Bulls.Henry, who joined Barcelona in the summer of 2006, returned to Arsenal on loan last year, making four appearances and extending his club record goal tally to 228.
 

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henry scored some pretty big goals for us last time he came back....we were
lacking strikers the last time so this time makes no sense (in Podolski and
Giroud can keep this up of course). I saw the next 4-5 matches and we avoid the top 3 but play a few teams in the top 4 hunt. By mid decemember we will know if this time is for real.
 

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don't really agree. he scored 2x...once in 7-1 win vs relegated blackburn and the other vs sunderland. he is at this point barely an above-average mls striker, a terribly selfish player, and certainly someone who's skills are more suited to Eng 1 or championship, at best. you don't need to sell tickets you need to win games and bringing henry in isn't going to help you do that

he was invisible in the 2 leg playoffs except for jumping into the area and having a Red Bulls penalty called off which cost them advancement.

yes he was a great player but at this point just an overpaid, old shell of a former striker. epl defenders will basically take the day off if he's ever starting for the gunners again
 

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well that goal vs sunderland was a stoppage time winner and he did score in an FA cup win 1-0 vs leeds...late goal there too. So I agree with everything about him as a current player he did some great things when he played last time. Personally i hope it is just media talk but even let him play in the cups and run out games again i'd been fine with it. But we gooners will always have a special spot for Henry....
 

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probably will have very little time for the massive writeups for awhile....

German Bundesliga I
Fortuna v Hamburg
Hamburg pk -131 -1.31 to win 1 unit
a little dangerous as Fortuna is bound to win a home match and the classic friday 1 gamer is a killer for betting the obvious. But tales of two teams as far as form and confidence. Hamburg can leapfrog a few teams and make a serious claim for a europe spot which would be huge for a poor cashless side like hamburg. And perhaps be able to keep a couple of players for next year. Home win wouldn't shock me and the straight bet on Hamburg is risky for sure....vegan taking hamburg - 15 years down the drain.

Spain La Liga
Real Sociedad v Osasuna
under 2.5 goals -120 -1.20 to win 1 unit

Denmark - Superliga
Randers v AaB
over 2.5 goals -119 -1.19 to win 1 unit

gl today
 

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looking at england/german i soon - i think goals in the sunderland v qpr match might be an option but i haven't read team news. No bet on the other EPL match.

German Bundesliga II
Bochum v FSV Frankfurt
over 2.5 goals -117 -1.17 to win 1 unit

1860 Munchen v Paderborn
Paderborn +0.5 -128 -128 to win 1 unit

Kaiserslautern v Jahn Regensburg
Kaiserslautern -1.5 -104 -1.04 to win 1 unit

-perhaps skipping the last one is a good idea....it really should be a home crushing but being midweek strange results can happen. Perhaps Kaiser with a second
 

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