You really do man. Like Mob said. Keep it to yourself. We don't need this in here. If you have a problem with a game or something, keep it to yourself.
Obviously you don't follow soccer, that's been made pretty clear and you've even said that before. So how can you say something like "damn these UEFA games, done with these..."
Do you even know what UEFA is? A few weeks ago you asked if teams even try in these UEFA Champions League games. Um, yeah. This is the most prestigious club trophy in the world to win. If you don't follow the sport, don't expect to tail blindly and win 100% of the times. It helps to see others picks and use them as guidelines, make your own judgements on whether or not to play them.
GL to you man, but keep the negativity to yourself. You can't expect to win if you don't know anything about the sport.
thanks guys - going 1-4 is bad enough without any help .... i guess 2-2 before the match would have been okay but hard to take after the start. But home vs Montpellier and in Greece - i think we will be okay. Unlike another england team today .... i might not have anything tomorrow but that will have nothing to do with today. Just waiting for my buddy to give my a car a over before i make the big move south....
in an effort to improve my picks this year i will be making less plays (despite the 3 plays today) and matches have to fit many rules in order to post/play. So hopefully it will make for better picks....i suspect 0-3 1-2 today just because that's how life works in the gamblor world. (it does mean longer but more to the point writeups....sorry for that)
England Championship
mboro v sheff --- 2:45 EST
Middlesboro -117 - 1.17 to win 1 unit
Form: Mboro had a 6 game winning streak ended with a draw last round(one cup win)...but it was midweek so that match can sort of be dismissed. Sheff 2 wins in 13.
Home/away - M'boro 5-1-1 at home matches, Sheff 1-2-4 on the road.
H2H: 4 Straight H2H wins from M'boro but games were in 2010, 2009, 2006 and 2000.
Recent/Upcoming Matches: M'boro with one game extra played with a cup but not a worry. And Mboro next match is a big one vs Cardiff in Wales but that is next Saturday so no factor.
Team News: Mboro do have injury concerns esp with Emnes and Ishmael Miller... but Jonathan Woodgate could start and i imagine Jutkiewicz and Scott McDonald should play.
Motivation - reason for both sides to want to get a result - Mboro working towards promotion back to the EPL while Sheffield need wins to move away from the relegation zone. But too early in the season for either side to consider those issues.
Weather: weather not should be a factor.
Odds: line is a bit suspicious (less today than last night) with it being near even but Sheffield 2-1-1 in their last 4 and nice draw vs Leeds..the two wins came against Pboro and Ipswich both teams below Sheffield.
Recap: So Form, home/away record, h2h all favour Mboro with only the team news a bit of a worry. Signs point to home win.
Spain La Liga
Betis v Granada - 3:30 EST
Betis -129 -1.29 to win 1 unit
Form: Betis form isn`t great 3-1-2 but Granaga much worst losing 4 straight.
H2H: Betas v Granada h2h 2-2-1 in the last 5 ... (2-2 in league play).
Home/Away Betis 3-2 at home, Granada 1-4 on the road. The home lost to Rayo is a poor result (the other loss to A. Madrid). Wins vs Valencia, Sociedad and Espanyol. Granada beat a struggling Mallorca on the road. Real and Barca beat Granada but so did Rayo, Levante and even Zaragoza in the cup.
Recent/Upcoming Matches: Both played cup matches midweek last week so both will have the same amount of rest. And Betis play Sevilla, Granada vs A Madrid so tough opponents for each club next round.
Team News: From what i read team news is no factor for either side.
Motivation: Certainly Granada has motivation to avoid relegation but Betis with such a good start to the year they have to consider this a very winnable match at home vs a pretty poor side.
Weather: Rain morning in Seville but should stop in the afternoon and no problem for kickoff and la liga's pitches won't be effected by early rain.
Odds: moved towards Betis this morning and with Real certainly not top 4-5 but great start so being a small favourite is about right.
Recap: good home wins vs teams similar to Granada. From, and home record certainly in Betis` favour. I think you can't waste a start to the year by slipping up to granada.
German Bundesliga I
Mainz v Nurnberg ---- 2:30 EST
Mainz -117 -1.17 to win 1 unit
Form: Mainz 4-1-1 in their last 6 while Nurnberg 1-1-4 in their last 6...Mainz lost last round 2-1 in Bremen but controlled the match for the most part and probably got an unjust result. Nurnberg did beat Wolfsburg last round but at home and Wolf still a bit of a mess.
H2H: Mainz 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 6 h2h vs Nurnberg...but 6 straight home wins vs nurnberg
Home/Away : Mainz 3-1 at home wins vs Dusseldorf, Augsburg, Hoffenheim, - Nurnberg 2-3 on the road. After winning 2 straight road matches to start the year - 3 straight losses - Hannover, Schalke and Frieburg all won while M`gladbache/Hamburg lost.
Recent/Upcoming Matches: Mainz with 1 extra match on the 30th with a 2-0 cup win vs Aue - can`t see it being a factor. Nurnberg with a big home match vs Munich next round - Mainz travel to Hamburg. Both tough matches and really this match won`t be overlooked.
Team news - Szalai should play and that`s all you need for Mainz - 8 goals this year and 4 in Mainz`s last two.
Motivation: I think Mainz will have an extra bit of motivation to get a result after coming away with a road loss vs Bremen that really should have been a win or at least a draw.
Weather: Nice and sunny in Mainz.
Odds: You never know how the middle/bottom table german I teams will do so being a slight favourite makes sense to me.
Recap: Form, Home record, h2h (esp. at home), in-form player in Szalai all point to a home win.
----i suspect home to win will be a very popular play with the play needing to pass multiple tests...home team win in the long run esp h2h and home/away. I know this works and it really is the way to bet soccer with the most profit...the trick is to be discipline and god knows how i will be able to cap so many saturday matches...i'll probably work from the bigger leagues down and stop when i am exhausted..haha...so some plays will no doubt slip through the cracks but if anyone happens to notice a play that i didn't get please, at any time, feel free to post and i can look at it.
GL this weekend
ps it takes me a long time to cap and make writeups so when i go 0-3 1-4 can we just make every effort to hold your tongue...i don't need praise when i go 3-0 4-1 because that means i made money - but this place has a lot of problems with kicking a capper when they are down. It's pointless and we, amateur punters, just trying to win money and help others along the way.
England Championship
mboro v sheff --- 2:45 EST
Middlesboro -117 - 1.17 to win 1 unit
Form: Mboro had a 6 game winning streak ended with a draw last round(one cup win)...but it was midweek so that match can sort of be dismissed. Sheff 2 wins in 13.
Home/away - M'boro 5-1-1 at home matches, Sheff 1-2-4 on the road.
H2H: 4 Straight H2H wins from M'boro but games were in 2010, 2009, 2006 and 2000.
Recent/Upcoming Matches: M'boro with one game extra played with a cup but not a worry. And Mboro next match is a big one vs Cardiff in Wales but that is next Saturday so no factor.
Team News: Mboro do have injury concerns esp with Emnes and Ishmael Miller... but Jonathan Woodgate could start and i imagine Jutkiewicz and Scott McDonald should play.
Motivation - reason for both sides to want to get a result - Mboro working towards promotion back to the EPL while Sheffield need wins to move away from the relegation zone. But too early in the season for either side to consider those issues.
Weather: weather not should be a factor.
Odds: line is a bit suspicious (less today than last night) with it being near even but Sheffield 2-1-1 in their last 4 and nice draw vs Leeds..the two wins came against Pboro and Ipswich both teams below Sheffield.
Recap: So Form, home/away record, h2h all favour Mboro with only the team news a bit of a worry. Signs point to home win.
Spain La Liga
Betis v Granada - 3:30 EST
Betis -129 -1.29 to win 1 unit
Form: Betis form isn`t great 3-1-2 but Granaga much worst losing 4 straight.
H2H: Betas v Granada h2h 2-2-1 in the last 5 ... (2-2 in league play).
Home/Away Betis 3-2 at home, Granada 1-4 on the road. The home lost to Rayo is a poor result (the other loss to A. Madrid). Wins vs Valencia, Sociedad and Espanyol. Granada beat a struggling Mallorca on the road. Real and Barca beat Granada but so did Rayo, Levante and even Zaragoza in the cup.
Recent/Upcoming Matches: Both played cup matches midweek last week so both will have the same amount of rest. And Betis play Sevilla, Granada vs A Madrid so tough opponents for each club next round.
Team News: From what i read team news is no factor for either side.
Motivation: Certainly Granada has motivation to avoid relegation but Betis with such a good start to the year they have to consider this a very winnable match at home vs a pretty poor side.
Weather: Rain morning in Seville but should stop in the afternoon and no problem for kickoff and la liga's pitches won't be effected by early rain.
Odds: moved towards Betis this morning and with Real certainly not top 4-5 but great start so being a small favourite is about right.
Recap: good home wins vs teams similar to Granada. From, and home record certainly in Betis` favour. I think you can't waste a start to the year by slipping up to granada.
German Bundesliga I
Mainz v Nurnberg ---- 2:30 EST
Mainz -117 -1.17 to win 1 unit
Form: Mainz 4-1-1 in their last 6 while Nurnberg 1-1-4 in their last 6...Mainz lost last round 2-1 in Bremen but controlled the match for the most part and probably got an unjust result. Nurnberg did beat Wolfsburg last round but at home and Wolf still a bit of a mess.
H2H: Mainz 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 6 h2h vs Nurnberg...but 6 straight home wins vs nurnberg
Home/Away : Mainz 3-1 at home wins vs Dusseldorf, Augsburg, Hoffenheim, - Nurnberg 2-3 on the road. After winning 2 straight road matches to start the year - 3 straight losses - Hannover, Schalke and Frieburg all won while M`gladbache/Hamburg lost.
Recent/Upcoming Matches: Mainz with 1 extra match on the 30th with a 2-0 cup win vs Aue - can`t see it being a factor. Nurnberg with a big home match vs Munich next round - Mainz travel to Hamburg. Both tough matches and really this match won`t be overlooked.
Team news - Szalai should play and that`s all you need for Mainz - 8 goals this year and 4 in Mainz`s last two.
Motivation: I think Mainz will have an extra bit of motivation to get a result after coming away with a road loss vs Bremen that really should have been a win or at least a draw.
Weather: Nice and sunny in Mainz.
Odds: You never know how the middle/bottom table german I teams will do so being a slight favourite makes sense to me.
Recap: Form, Home record, h2h (esp. at home), in-form player in Szalai all point to a home win.
----i suspect home to win will be a very popular play with the play needing to pass multiple tests...home team win in the long run esp h2h and home/away. I know this works and it really is the way to bet soccer with the most profit...the trick is to be discipline and god knows how i will be able to cap so many saturday matches...i'll probably work from the bigger leagues down and stop when i am exhausted..haha...so some plays will no doubt slip through the cracks but if anyone happens to notice a play that i didn't get please, at any time, feel free to post and i can look at it.
GL this weekend
ps it takes me a long time to cap and make writeups so when i go 0-3 1-4 can we just make every effort to hold your tongue...i don't need praise when i go 3-0 4-1 because that means i made money - but this place has a lot of problems with kicking a capper when they are down. It's pointless and we, amateur punters, just trying to win money and help others along the way.
just shows how crazy trying to bet the Championship is. nearly top vs bottom and line is -120? that's like Chelsea vs Reading being priced in London at -120. tough league to figure out
big news out of HSV. surely will affect their play tomorrow...
Hamburg sporting director Frank Arnesen says the club must raise funds by selling five first-team players and has revealed those who will face the axe.The Bundesliga outfit splashed out on Rafael van der Vaart, Milan Badelj, Petr Jiracek and Artjoms Rudnevs in the off-season.
But Arnesen has revealed that money must be raised in order to balance the books.
"This is a big challenge. We have invested a lot in the summer," he told Bild.
"We have some big names on the scratch list. We have professionals who we did not want to let go, so it is unfortunate."
Goalkeeper Jaroslav Drobny, defender Slobodan Rajkovic, midfielders Per Skjelbred and Robert Tesche and striker Marcus Berg are the unfortunate five who are now looking for clubs.
"They have all been informed and I have spoken to their consultants," Arnesen said.
"Perhaps it is better for some than others, but I am just glad they will get some first-team action with a new club."
big news out of HSV. surely will affect their play tomorrow...
Hamburg sporting director Frank Arnesen says the club must raise funds by selling five first-team players and has revealed those who will face the axe.The Bundesliga outfit splashed out on Rafael van der Vaart, Milan Badelj, Petr Jiracek and Artjoms Rudnevs in the off-season.
But Arnesen has revealed that money must be raised in order to balance the books.
"This is a big challenge. We have invested a lot in the summer," he told Bild.
"We have some big names on the scratch list. We have professionals who we did not want to let go, so it is unfortunate."
Goalkeeper Jaroslav Drobny, defender Slobodan Rajkovic, midfielders Per Skjelbred and Robert Tesche and striker Marcus Berg are the unfortunate five who are now looking for clubs.
"They have all been informed and I have spoken to their consultants," Arnesen said.
"Perhaps it is better for some than others, but I am just glad they will get some first-team action with a new club."
i think if palace lost/drew ispwich midweek i might have stayed away..but that line was +100 and a 5-0 Palace win. I think odds in lower level of England should all be in this range because so often those -225 -300 team fail to win...why guys take -200 straight up in league two is beyond me...esp when i do it.....
i think hamburg should think about relegation just to ease the money pressure and then rebuild and regroup..it could be the kiss of death of course but we have seen teams in England do this with good results...if they surive Bundesliga I and then sell off those players they will be brutal next season.I don't know if other countries deduct points for going into administration as they say in england... But get relegated - sell the players and rebuild. But why announce this now???? Weird and a very German thing to do i guess....i will certainly consider Hamburg a no bet for me this weekend or just take Freiburg thinking they will be pretty deflated...of course i check line movement 1 min before kickoff..haha...
and thanks mattymatt - hopefully even a 2-1 day to make it all worth it....
i think hamburg should think about relegation just to ease the money pressure and then rebuild and regroup..it could be the kiss of death of course but we have seen teams in England do this with good results...if they surive Bundesliga I and then sell off those players they will be brutal next season.I don't know if other countries deduct points for going into administration as they say in england... But get relegated - sell the players and rebuild. But why announce this now???? Weird and a very German thing to do i guess....i will certainly consider Hamburg a no bet for me this weekend or just take Freiburg thinking they will be pretty deflated...of course i check line movement 1 min before kickoff..haha...
and thanks mattymatt - hopefully even a 2-1 day to make it all worth it....
2-1 with the new `system` I`ll always take 2-1 but when betis tied it up they really looked like they were going to get the winner. But 2-1 days will always be welcomed.
German Bundesliga II
Union Berlin v Aalen
Union -120 -1.20 to win 1 unit
Form: past 6: Union 3-2-1 only lost vs a tough Paderborn side, Aalen 3-1-2 as well. Aalen was 0-1-2 until they beat a very flat Koln team. I watched that match and Koln (much like Friday) were very poor. Home form - Union had 3 straight home wins that was snapped by Paderborn.(75th min goal) Aalen 1 win and 3 losses in 4 road matches - losing to Sandhausen is a bad result - Hertha and Ingolstadt the other two losses. Current form is close but home/away leans Union.
Home/Away - Both are 3-3 home/away - i think there is a difference in the records though. Union 3-1 in their last 5 home matches and the three home losses came against Braunschweig, Hertha and Paderborn - top 2 clubs and a team in good form. Aalen`s road wins - Bochum, Duisburg and St Pauli...all three either at the bottom or in St Pauli`s case at the bottom at game day. And Aalen just 1 win in 4 road matches.
H2H - Union two wins in two matches vs Union but that was in the 2008-09 season.
Recent/Upcoming game: both played a cup match 30-31th of Oct. so no extra rest for one team. And nothing special coming up.
Motivation: I thought Union was a top 3 type team but a slow start put them behind. Aalen are playing well and should be quite happy were they are. Hard to say Union will be more motivated but i think they are playing with confidence and certainly expect to beat a promotional side like Aalen.
Team News: I certainly didn`t read any news from Union to keep me away. Parensen is the only missing that has scored and only played 4 matches. No major injuries/suspensions for aalen.
Weather: Says light rain in Berin but shouldn`t be a factor.
Odds: Aalen sit 4 points clear of Union and can be a tough to break down so I think odds making Union at home a slight favourite is justify.
Recap: past form is close but home/away record and esp form gives Union the edge here. I think Union could look at h2h and have confidence but I read Aalen with 12 changes to the team since then so not sure that will matter. Promotion can still happen but Union really need to win these type of matches the rest of the year.
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the old betting ways certainly would have taken the over in the paderborn v kaiserlautern match. Over at homes for Paderborn but 4 straight unders and a lot of 0-0 h2h. But Paderborn over at home and Kaiser. over in most games recent. Not enough to play for me.
Looking at england and german I and others...I don`t think any EPL matches fit the system but I should find at least 2 more but this one is early so posting now.....gl.
German Bundesliga II
Union Berlin v Aalen
Union -120 -1.20 to win 1 unit
Form: past 6: Union 3-2-1 only lost vs a tough Paderborn side, Aalen 3-1-2 as well. Aalen was 0-1-2 until they beat a very flat Koln team. I watched that match and Koln (much like Friday) were very poor. Home form - Union had 3 straight home wins that was snapped by Paderborn.(75th min goal) Aalen 1 win and 3 losses in 4 road matches - losing to Sandhausen is a bad result - Hertha and Ingolstadt the other two losses. Current form is close but home/away leans Union.
Home/Away - Both are 3-3 home/away - i think there is a difference in the records though. Union 3-1 in their last 5 home matches and the three home losses came against Braunschweig, Hertha and Paderborn - top 2 clubs and a team in good form. Aalen`s road wins - Bochum, Duisburg and St Pauli...all three either at the bottom or in St Pauli`s case at the bottom at game day. And Aalen just 1 win in 4 road matches.
H2H - Union two wins in two matches vs Union but that was in the 2008-09 season.
Recent/Upcoming game: both played a cup match 30-31th of Oct. so no extra rest for one team. And nothing special coming up.
Motivation: I thought Union was a top 3 type team but a slow start put them behind. Aalen are playing well and should be quite happy were they are. Hard to say Union will be more motivated but i think they are playing with confidence and certainly expect to beat a promotional side like Aalen.
Team News: I certainly didn`t read any news from Union to keep me away. Parensen is the only missing that has scored and only played 4 matches. No major injuries/suspensions for aalen.
Weather: Says light rain in Berin but shouldn`t be a factor.
Odds: Aalen sit 4 points clear of Union and can be a tough to break down so I think odds making Union at home a slight favourite is justify.
Recap: past form is close but home/away record and esp form gives Union the edge here. I think Union could look at h2h and have confidence but I read Aalen with 12 changes to the team since then so not sure that will matter. Promotion can still happen but Union really need to win these type of matches the rest of the year.
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the old betting ways certainly would have taken the over in the paderborn v kaiserlautern match. Over at homes for Paderborn but 4 straight unders and a lot of 0-0 h2h. But Paderborn over at home and Kaiser. over in most games recent. Not enough to play for me.
Looking at england and german I and others...I don`t think any EPL matches fit the system but I should find at least 2 more but this one is early so posting now.....gl.
adding two more but that'll be it at least until nooner EST
German Bundesliga I
Dusseldorf v Hoffenheim: 9:30 EST
over 2.5 goals - 109 - 1.09 to win 1 unit
Form: yields a total more than a side....Dusseldorf 4 overs in their last 5 matches Hoffenheim 3 straight overs and 8 out of their last 10 matches have been overs.
Home/Away - Dusseldorf with 3 overs in 5 home matches - and Hoffenheim 4 overs in 5 road matches. 3 straight home matches have been overs for Dusseldorf and the only under on the road for Hoffenheim was a 2-0 loss to Bayern Munich (no one scores vs them at home).
h2h - no matches
Recent and Upcoming matches - Düsseldorf played 1 extra cup match in the last 11 days and both have normal games next round.
Team News: Shahin with 4 goals missing for Dusseldorf - no major missing for Hoffenheim
Weather: looks good to me.
Odds: it is surprising to see just over 2.5 in a german I match esp featuring hoffenheim. I think it makes sense though because Dusseldorf`s overs tend to be because the other team scores 2+ goals and Hoffenheim might not get the goals.
Recap: Dusseldorf were magical at home in the II Bundesliga and Hoffenheim do struggle on the road. 5-3 to Freiburg and 3-0 to Mainz leads me think Dussel can win this one. But they leak goals so 3+ goals should really happen.
England League One
Yeovil v Hartlepool: 10:00 EST
Yeovil -120 -1.20 to win 1 unit
Form: Yeovil 4-2 in the last 6 - 2 wins in 3 home matches. I think form is better than the record because the two losses came against Tranmere and Stevenage...2 of the top 3 teams in the league. Hartlepool 0-2-4 in the last 6 and got smoked 6-1 to a League Two side Chesterfield in the FA Cup.
Home/Away - Yeovil just 3-1-4 at home - Portsmouth was a bad loss but losing to 2nd Sheffield and 3rd Stevenage not too surprising. They did beat Doncaster, Colchester and 3-1 wins vs Bury (Hartlepool the only worst team than Bury). Hartlepool 0-2-6 on the road - two road draws vs teams very similar in the standings to Yeovil. Hartlepool lost to some bottom table clubs like Leyton and Bury.
H2H - well it doesn`t pass this test but it doesn`t have to pass them all just a large majority of them. Hartlepool 4 wins and 2 losses in the last 6 matches h2h including 2 wins in 3 in Yeovil.
Recent/Upcoming matches - both played at home midweek. Big advantage to Yeovil as they didn`t have to travel while Hartlepool plays way up in the North and Yeovil is one of the southern most sides. Yeovil could overlook this one as they play Swindon next round which if they desire promotion would be a big match. But Hartlepool play Coventry which they might look at a winnable match so i think next match cancel each other.
Team News: EPL side Reading loan Gozie Ugwu will return to Yeovil - not sure if he will start (probably not) but he had 3 goals in 3 matches before getting injured Oct 2nd. Upson missing due to a red card. No new injuries/missing for Hartlepool.
Motivation: I doubt motivation is a factor - certainly yeovil can move closer to a playoff promotional spot but Hartlepool desperate for points to try and save the year. Hart. sit 8 points out of relegation zone so even though it is still early - they need wins/draws.
Weather: looks like a rainy day in Yeovil - but not hard and no wind so hopefully no factor.
Odds: hartlepool h2h record and draws vs sides near Yeovil in the standings justify the short odds despite just 8 points for Hartlepool in 16 matches and 2 points in 8 road matches.
Recap: I like the return of Ugwu and even though it might take a few games to get going it is a big boost. I don`t know if Yeovil is a promotional side but winning here could see them jump pass a few sides and very close to a playoff spot. Hartlepool struggling bigtime and 6-1 cup loss cannot help their confidence.
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in the epl - Southampton -0.25 is almost a play for me. Swansea with some good results drawing chelski and beating liverpool in the cup but in the EPL 3 straight road losses. Stoke and Villa are bad losses too. And h2h Soton 2 wins and 1 draw at home vs Swansea. Nice home win vs Villa and drawing Fulham are good results but flat against wigan at home. Southampton just not getting enough results to trust them though but good spot for them to win. Probably fits enough of the system to play it to be honest - but 4 points and 1 win in 10 i cannot bet it.
Some positive signs for arsenal in the CL match despite blowing a 2-0 lead. We pretty much own Fulham at home winning 19 drawing 4 and losing 0 in 23 matches. But we failed to win in the two matches last year drawing at home. With WBA on the road and Tottenham in tough Arsenal with the perfect chance to move pass two sides and back into top 5. I think arsenal -1 is a decent bet but, as i say, i don`t bet my club.
i`ll probably continue to look at matches as i watch some morning soccer...it turns out eliminating games is easier and faster than I though thanks to soccerway.com. GL this weekend......
15 year Vegan Anniversary for me Saturday so that`s pretty exciting.
German Bundesliga I
Dusseldorf v Hoffenheim: 9:30 EST
over 2.5 goals - 109 - 1.09 to win 1 unit
Form: yields a total more than a side....Dusseldorf 4 overs in their last 5 matches Hoffenheim 3 straight overs and 8 out of their last 10 matches have been overs.
Home/Away - Dusseldorf with 3 overs in 5 home matches - and Hoffenheim 4 overs in 5 road matches. 3 straight home matches have been overs for Dusseldorf and the only under on the road for Hoffenheim was a 2-0 loss to Bayern Munich (no one scores vs them at home).
h2h - no matches
Recent and Upcoming matches - Düsseldorf played 1 extra cup match in the last 11 days and both have normal games next round.
Team News: Shahin with 4 goals missing for Dusseldorf - no major missing for Hoffenheim
Weather: looks good to me.
Odds: it is surprising to see just over 2.5 in a german I match esp featuring hoffenheim. I think it makes sense though because Dusseldorf`s overs tend to be because the other team scores 2+ goals and Hoffenheim might not get the goals.
Recap: Dusseldorf were magical at home in the II Bundesliga and Hoffenheim do struggle on the road. 5-3 to Freiburg and 3-0 to Mainz leads me think Dussel can win this one. But they leak goals so 3+ goals should really happen.
England League One
Yeovil v Hartlepool: 10:00 EST
Yeovil -120 -1.20 to win 1 unit
Form: Yeovil 4-2 in the last 6 - 2 wins in 3 home matches. I think form is better than the record because the two losses came against Tranmere and Stevenage...2 of the top 3 teams in the league. Hartlepool 0-2-4 in the last 6 and got smoked 6-1 to a League Two side Chesterfield in the FA Cup.
Home/Away - Yeovil just 3-1-4 at home - Portsmouth was a bad loss but losing to 2nd Sheffield and 3rd Stevenage not too surprising. They did beat Doncaster, Colchester and 3-1 wins vs Bury (Hartlepool the only worst team than Bury). Hartlepool 0-2-6 on the road - two road draws vs teams very similar in the standings to Yeovil. Hartlepool lost to some bottom table clubs like Leyton and Bury.
H2H - well it doesn`t pass this test but it doesn`t have to pass them all just a large majority of them. Hartlepool 4 wins and 2 losses in the last 6 matches h2h including 2 wins in 3 in Yeovil.
Recent/Upcoming matches - both played at home midweek. Big advantage to Yeovil as they didn`t have to travel while Hartlepool plays way up in the North and Yeovil is one of the southern most sides. Yeovil could overlook this one as they play Swindon next round which if they desire promotion would be a big match. But Hartlepool play Coventry which they might look at a winnable match so i think next match cancel each other.
Team News: EPL side Reading loan Gozie Ugwu will return to Yeovil - not sure if he will start (probably not) but he had 3 goals in 3 matches before getting injured Oct 2nd. Upson missing due to a red card. No new injuries/missing for Hartlepool.
Motivation: I doubt motivation is a factor - certainly yeovil can move closer to a playoff promotional spot but Hartlepool desperate for points to try and save the year. Hart. sit 8 points out of relegation zone so even though it is still early - they need wins/draws.
Weather: looks like a rainy day in Yeovil - but not hard and no wind so hopefully no factor.
Odds: hartlepool h2h record and draws vs sides near Yeovil in the standings justify the short odds despite just 8 points for Hartlepool in 16 matches and 2 points in 8 road matches.
Recap: I like the return of Ugwu and even though it might take a few games to get going it is a big boost. I don`t know if Yeovil is a promotional side but winning here could see them jump pass a few sides and very close to a playoff spot. Hartlepool struggling bigtime and 6-1 cup loss cannot help their confidence.
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in the epl - Southampton -0.25 is almost a play for me. Swansea with some good results drawing chelski and beating liverpool in the cup but in the EPL 3 straight road losses. Stoke and Villa are bad losses too. And h2h Soton 2 wins and 1 draw at home vs Swansea. Nice home win vs Villa and drawing Fulham are good results but flat against wigan at home. Southampton just not getting enough results to trust them though but good spot for them to win. Probably fits enough of the system to play it to be honest - but 4 points and 1 win in 10 i cannot bet it.
Some positive signs for arsenal in the CL match despite blowing a 2-0 lead. We pretty much own Fulham at home winning 19 drawing 4 and losing 0 in 23 matches. But we failed to win in the two matches last year drawing at home. With WBA on the road and Tottenham in tough Arsenal with the perfect chance to move pass two sides and back into top 5. I think arsenal -1 is a decent bet but, as i say, i don`t bet my club.
i`ll probably continue to look at matches as i watch some morning soccer...it turns out eliminating games is easier and faster than I though thanks to soccerway.com. GL this weekend......
15 year Vegan Anniversary for me Saturday so that`s pretty exciting.
well 1-2 but i think in a normal day it should have been 3-0...union definitely deserved a penalty - although arsenal shows how you don't soccer Pks..and 1-1 HT with a home side up a man for 40 mins or so...usually that leads to a goal but not when i bet it....3-3 overall...need some luck to get this off though....
Spain La Liga
Malaga v Real Sociedad
Malaga -1 +107 - 0.93 to win 1 unit
Form: Malaga form could be better 2-2-2 in their last 6 matches but 2-1 at home and losing last weekend could be excused because it came before a midweek CL match in Milan. (drew 1-1). Real Soc. 1-1-4 in their last 6 and just a draw in three on the road.
h2h is a bad stat for malaga but Malaga really only came to be a bigger club last year. But since both clubs came to La Liga just 1 win in 4 for malaga vs Real Soc. 0-1-1 at home
Home/Away - Malaga 3-1-1 at home, Soc 0-1-4 on the road. As mentioned the only loss at home for malaga came before a CL match in Milan..no doubt minds were elsewhere as San Siro in the CL is one of those can`t wait for matches. The draw came 3 days after a match vs Panathinakos and after winning a spot in the group stage. Wins at home include Zenit and Milan in the CL and Betis, Vallad/Levant. Real Soc. only draw on the road came against Valladolid..Mallorca, Betis, Levante and even Cordoba in the cup all beat Soc. at home.
Recent/Upcoming games: certainly soc. will be more rested but the fact Malaga managed a draw vs Milan will lift them up. Great result really. No CL game next week so I really don`t think this is a factor.
Motivation: Malaga could jump pass Betis and even Real Madrid with a win. Madrid in tough vs Levante and perhaps a draw so a win could even see Malaga tied after this round. Soc sit in a out of the relegation zone on goal difference and could jump a ton of clubs with a win. Hard to give the edge to Malaga but certainly they will know what a win means today.
Team News: Demichelis and Camacho are out for Malaga - certainly two key players but Malaga with a big squad so i think they will be replaced. Griezmann missing for Soc. is a big blow - he led the team with 3 goals. Bergara certainly will be missed in the midfield too. Malaga`s missing are bigger names but i think they will be replaces easier than Soc. missing.
Weather: Nice and sunny in Malaga.
Odds: being that Malaga had a midweek match and just 2 out of 5 wins have been by 2+ I think odds are set right. Only the super big clubs deserve the -1.5 type spread.
Recap: Malaga at home are great, motivation to pass Real Madrid even for a day could play a role. Malaga really are a top 3-4 club and should be too much for a team most likely to fight the relegation battle all season. 0-1 in spain with betis losing yesterday though.
French Ligue One
Toulouse v AJ Ajaccio
Toulouse -1 +110 - 0.90 to win 1 unit
Form: Toulouse 3-2-1 in their last 6 - 1 wins 2 draws at home in 3. Ajaccio 1-3-2 in their last 6. Drawing 2 and losing one at home. Not a great difference but enough to lean toulouse.
Home/Away - Toulouse yet to lose at home but just 2 win and 3 draws in 5. Ajaccio 1-2-3 on the road. Draws at home for Toulouse include Rennes, Valenciennes and wins Brest, St Etienne. Ajaccio nice road draw vs Bordeaux but losses to Valenciennes, Lyon and Lille shows they are in tough vs top French clubs.
H2H - Toulouse 5 wins in 6 home matches vs Ajaccio, 7-1-4 overall in 12. but they do lose their last match h2h at home.
Recent/Upcoming Games: Toulouse with one more cup match recent but should not matter. Ajaccio could look ahead at what they will feel to be a winnable game at home vs Sochaux. Toulose play Nice next so no worries there.
Motivation - early for relegation talk but Ajaccio just 3 points clear of a relegation spot but I don`t think it will give them more motivation than a normal match. Getting a good result vs a top side might. Toulouse can move into a tie with PSG and Marseille with a win so that should be very important fact and maybe that little extra to secure a home win.
Team News: Toulouse Yago and Serge Aurier missing both defenders should they could be weaker in the defense. Andre, Adrian Mutu and Johan Cavalli all missing for Ajaccio - some key players there but Eduardo is back so he should at least replace some goal chances from mutu and Cavalli. But certainly news hits Ajaccio more than Toulouse.
Weather - light rain in toulouse so i don`t think it will be factor.
Odds : Set just right - hard to win by 2+ in france and ajaccio did get the draw vs bordeaux but lille and marseille both 2-0 winners recently vs Ajaccio.
Recap: I think topping the league (or tied in points) could provide a bit more motivation and a strong home side with a good h2h record vs Ajaccio. Toulouse lost to Bordeuax last round so i quick turnaround will be needed if they want to stay with the big clubs of france. Ajaccio certainly know it will be tough and with a winnable match next weekend could take the loss here...not that they will be happy to do it. Big missing players for Ajaccio too....2-0 makes sense..
Spain La Liga
Malaga v Real Sociedad
Malaga -1 +107 - 0.93 to win 1 unit
Form: Malaga form could be better 2-2-2 in their last 6 matches but 2-1 at home and losing last weekend could be excused because it came before a midweek CL match in Milan. (drew 1-1). Real Soc. 1-1-4 in their last 6 and just a draw in three on the road.
h2h is a bad stat for malaga but Malaga really only came to be a bigger club last year. But since both clubs came to La Liga just 1 win in 4 for malaga vs Real Soc. 0-1-1 at home
Home/Away - Malaga 3-1-1 at home, Soc 0-1-4 on the road. As mentioned the only loss at home for malaga came before a CL match in Milan..no doubt minds were elsewhere as San Siro in the CL is one of those can`t wait for matches. The draw came 3 days after a match vs Panathinakos and after winning a spot in the group stage. Wins at home include Zenit and Milan in the CL and Betis, Vallad/Levant. Real Soc. only draw on the road came against Valladolid..Mallorca, Betis, Levante and even Cordoba in the cup all beat Soc. at home.
Recent/Upcoming games: certainly soc. will be more rested but the fact Malaga managed a draw vs Milan will lift them up. Great result really. No CL game next week so I really don`t think this is a factor.
Motivation: Malaga could jump pass Betis and even Real Madrid with a win. Madrid in tough vs Levante and perhaps a draw so a win could even see Malaga tied after this round. Soc sit in a out of the relegation zone on goal difference and could jump a ton of clubs with a win. Hard to give the edge to Malaga but certainly they will know what a win means today.
Team News: Demichelis and Camacho are out for Malaga - certainly two key players but Malaga with a big squad so i think they will be replaced. Griezmann missing for Soc. is a big blow - he led the team with 3 goals. Bergara certainly will be missed in the midfield too. Malaga`s missing are bigger names but i think they will be replaces easier than Soc. missing.
Weather: Nice and sunny in Malaga.
Odds: being that Malaga had a midweek match and just 2 out of 5 wins have been by 2+ I think odds are set right. Only the super big clubs deserve the -1.5 type spread.
Recap: Malaga at home are great, motivation to pass Real Madrid even for a day could play a role. Malaga really are a top 3-4 club and should be too much for a team most likely to fight the relegation battle all season. 0-1 in spain with betis losing yesterday though.
French Ligue One
Toulouse v AJ Ajaccio
Toulouse -1 +110 - 0.90 to win 1 unit
Form: Toulouse 3-2-1 in their last 6 - 1 wins 2 draws at home in 3. Ajaccio 1-3-2 in their last 6. Drawing 2 and losing one at home. Not a great difference but enough to lean toulouse.
Home/Away - Toulouse yet to lose at home but just 2 win and 3 draws in 5. Ajaccio 1-2-3 on the road. Draws at home for Toulouse include Rennes, Valenciennes and wins Brest, St Etienne. Ajaccio nice road draw vs Bordeaux but losses to Valenciennes, Lyon and Lille shows they are in tough vs top French clubs.
H2H - Toulouse 5 wins in 6 home matches vs Ajaccio, 7-1-4 overall in 12. but they do lose their last match h2h at home.
Recent/Upcoming Games: Toulouse with one more cup match recent but should not matter. Ajaccio could look ahead at what they will feel to be a winnable game at home vs Sochaux. Toulose play Nice next so no worries there.
Motivation - early for relegation talk but Ajaccio just 3 points clear of a relegation spot but I don`t think it will give them more motivation than a normal match. Getting a good result vs a top side might. Toulouse can move into a tie with PSG and Marseille with a win so that should be very important fact and maybe that little extra to secure a home win.
Team News: Toulouse Yago and Serge Aurier missing both defenders should they could be weaker in the defense. Andre, Adrian Mutu and Johan Cavalli all missing for Ajaccio - some key players there but Eduardo is back so he should at least replace some goal chances from mutu and Cavalli. But certainly news hits Ajaccio more than Toulouse.
Weather - light rain in toulouse so i don`t think it will be factor.
Odds : Set just right - hard to win by 2+ in france and ajaccio did get the draw vs bordeaux but lille and marseille both 2-0 winners recently vs Ajaccio.
Recap: I think topping the league (or tied in points) could provide a bit more motivation and a strong home side with a good h2h record vs Ajaccio. Toulouse lost to Bordeuax last round so i quick turnaround will be needed if they want to stay with the big clubs of france. Ajaccio certainly know it will be tough and with a winnable match next weekend could take the loss here...not that they will be happy to do it. Big missing players for Ajaccio too....2-0 makes sense..
not much to say about saturday's picks. Certainly Malaga were flat to start the match but i though turned it on. To be honest I always have to come from behind so i figure it would start like this. I thought about ignoring sunday's plays but 2 german II matches look good so i'll try those and see what happens. So far: 3-5.
I think on weekends I will write shorter writeups...just too much time looking at matches and then trying to type it all out. All the plays passed the vast majority of the same rules that made those wonderful selections today.... Back to normal writeups on Monday (if there are plays).
German Bundesliga II
Ingolstadt v Jahn Regensburg
Ingolstadt -129 -1.29 to win 1 unit
just some quick stats: Jahn 1 win in 5 on the road losing 4. Beating Sandhausen is no big win really. Ingolstadt - i still can't picture them so high in the standings - i think the top clubs will be beating them all year but they have beaten the middle/bottom table clubs. Recent game include draws vs Hertha and Kaiserlautern and wins vs Aalen and Duisburg.
Cottbus v Dresden
Cottbus -114 - 1.14 to win 1 unit
Cottbus with just 1 in the 5 but 3 of those were road matches but a road draw vs aalen and winning at home vs 1860 are good results. Cottbus 4-1-1 at home including wins vs Paderborn, St Pauli and 1860. Dresden 1-2-3 on the road - hertha, st pauli and bochum all won at home. Dresden struggling this year and cottbus is back to its old ways of playing and have a great shot at promotion. Cottbus 2 wins and 1 draw in 3 matches at home vs Dresden.
7 straight h2h matches have gone over in the frankfurt v 1860 match. Just not enough recent overs for me to consider it though. Frankfurt pk actually looks like a strong play but not quite enough to take it for me. There will be a time in the season were frankfurt start losing and 1860 only lost twice on the road - Hertha and Cottbus - certainly at the pick line i'd consider it but no bet.
gl - i need it. I'll be looking at the rest of the plays tomorrow - if it is an 0-2 morning i might just cap them myself and wait til it starts producing winners....that way i can figure out more ways to eliminate picks without costing other people money. A nice 2-0 morning would be nice though,
GL Sunday - someone told me Alabama losing was a big deal today -
ps sorry again to those that followed me today ---- I can make excuses for Union Berlin and Dusseldorf over but nothing for Toulouse and Malaga.
I think on weekends I will write shorter writeups...just too much time looking at matches and then trying to type it all out. All the plays passed the vast majority of the same rules that made those wonderful selections today.... Back to normal writeups on Monday (if there are plays).
German Bundesliga II
Ingolstadt v Jahn Regensburg
Ingolstadt -129 -1.29 to win 1 unit
just some quick stats: Jahn 1 win in 5 on the road losing 4. Beating Sandhausen is no big win really. Ingolstadt - i still can't picture them so high in the standings - i think the top clubs will be beating them all year but they have beaten the middle/bottom table clubs. Recent game include draws vs Hertha and Kaiserlautern and wins vs Aalen and Duisburg.
Cottbus v Dresden
Cottbus -114 - 1.14 to win 1 unit
Cottbus with just 1 in the 5 but 3 of those were road matches but a road draw vs aalen and winning at home vs 1860 are good results. Cottbus 4-1-1 at home including wins vs Paderborn, St Pauli and 1860. Dresden 1-2-3 on the road - hertha, st pauli and bochum all won at home. Dresden struggling this year and cottbus is back to its old ways of playing and have a great shot at promotion. Cottbus 2 wins and 1 draw in 3 matches at home vs Dresden.
7 straight h2h matches have gone over in the frankfurt v 1860 match. Just not enough recent overs for me to consider it though. Frankfurt pk actually looks like a strong play but not quite enough to take it for me. There will be a time in the season were frankfurt start losing and 1860 only lost twice on the road - Hertha and Cottbus - certainly at the pick line i'd consider it but no bet.
gl - i need it. I'll be looking at the rest of the plays tomorrow - if it is an 0-2 morning i might just cap them myself and wait til it starts producing winners....that way i can figure out more ways to eliminate picks without costing other people money. A nice 2-0 morning would be nice though,
GL Sunday - someone told me Alabama losing was a big deal today -
ps sorry again to those that followed me today ---- I can make excuses for Union Berlin and Dusseldorf over but nothing for Toulouse and Malaga.
ngolstadt tried to best to give jahn a draw but i think a poor ref decision led to the red card, penalty and eventually winner....so the union match has already been giving back with ingolstadt. Frankfurt deserved to tie it late but couldn't do it....I suspect Frankfurt will tank right about now and hopefully the bookies wait a few games for us to win money.....
kickoff is in 30 mins and with newcastle always wise to wait for lineups but everything passed the test for me .... so
EPL
Newcastle v West Hammers
over 2.5 goals -125 -1.25 to win 1 unit
not sure i'll be looking at any more matches but you never know.....gl
kickoff is in 30 mins and with newcastle always wise to wait for lineups but everything passed the test for me .... so
EPL
Newcastle v West Hammers
over 2.5 goals -125 -1.25 to win 1 unit
not sure i'll be looking at any more matches but you never know.....gl
This article is very depressing if you are an Arsenal supporter. Devang is really pissed off. But I don't believe he will give up.
An Arsenal Supporter Gives Up
The season is still young. Take solice in the fact that you will probably finish higher than Liverpool.
An Arsenal Supporter Gives Up
The season is still young. Take solice in the fact that you will probably finish higher than Liverpool.
