Dial Square's 2012-13 Thread

[DialSquares]

torquay match cancelled so adding the pompey -1 play and writeups

England Johnstone's Paint Trophy
RochdaleV Bury
over 2.5, 3.0 -111 -1.11 to win 1 unit
these two clubs know each other playing in league two for many years and in league one last season. In Rochdale h2h 6 overs in 8 matches including a 1-3 Bury Cup Win. Rochdale 2-2 in their first round match and have played 5 overs in their last 6 matches. Much better road over for Rochdale in League Two (just 1 over in 5 at home). Bury is in a mess sitting last place in league one but could certainly score. Last 8 for Bury have had 5 overs and recently managed 2 goals vs Stevenage and 1 against Sheffield. Often teams struggling in the league will bow out of cups but being a local derby and certainly Bury doesn't want to be shown up by a league two side I think we will see a motivated sides. History points to goals and so does recent league form...in the end tought to call a side...1-2 2-1..hopefully a 4th goal for the full winner

MorecambeV Preston North End
over 2.5, 3.0 -112 -1.12 to win 1 unit
i think preston actually will beat up on morecambe and the odds at evens is mighty tempting. But talk of changing up the squad worries me so taking the over. You cant make wholesale changes like you can for other cups so Preston should still field a strong enough side. As well Preston had a nice cup run last year but the first 3 wins all came in extra time. Last year this two teams met in Morecambe and 2-2 was the final. Morecambe have injury concerns esp in the back end and should conceed a couple or a few goals....Preston 8 overs in 11 league matches and 2 overs in 3 cup matches...1-1 being the only under. 6 straight preston matches with at least 4 goals. Preston scores a ton but they also conceed goals. Morecambe 7 overs in 11 league matches but just 1 over in 3 cup matches. Those cup matches were 2-0 winners over Accrington, 2-1 winner over Blackpool and a 2-0 loss to EPL's Sunderland....certainly scoring against sunderland was going to be difficult but two road wins against a Championship side and a tough league two team is impressive. Morecambe might struggle to score but knowing they will be soft in the back they should try to play an open match....in the end preston might get all 3 but hopefully a 1-3 2-3 2-2 type match,

Torquay U.V Yeovil
over 2.5, 3.0 -112 -1.12 to win 1 unit
***********Match POSTPONED

Portsmouth v Wycombe
Portsmouth -1 +102 - 0.98 to win 1 unit
a struggling league two team that will be making changes to their roster. Portsmouth cannot make too many changes because they cannot afford too many players. Wycombe sit 22nd in the league two with just 8 points in 10 matches and 4 losses out of 5 on the road. Their only road result was a win in round one vs a promotion side York and all 4 road losses have come against middle of the table league two sides. The drop from league two to the conference is a big blow and it looks like their manager will do his part in keeping them up in league two by making changes. Even a full squad would probably struggle against cash stricken Pompey. Portsmouth doing a lot better in league one than I thought but manage to sign decent enough players and I think a cup run with the cash would be a huge bonus and the JPT is certainly something they could win....maybe....but against a low league two side they should really win but the odds have shortened so hopefully they can win by 2+. Pompey 2 wins and 1 draw in their last three..certainly a 1-1 road draw vs MK Dons is impressive and wins vs Crawley, Yeovil are great results. The fact they cannot rotate their squad is a huge plus. Certainly staying in league one is the priority but 7000 pounds to win this one and 10000 for the next (40000 for the winner of the JPT) and perhaps more home games a team like Pompey will want to win as much as they can and they don't look like relegation material. Hopefully an easy 3-0 type match but certainly pompey should win.

 

[varkeyboy]

Let's get these OVERs!! Do u by any chance have an updated record? Thanks for all that u do, Dial.

 

[rolltide]

wow pompey...0-2 in 10 min. crazy cups

 

[varkeyboy]

Why did Torquay get postponed?

 

[rolltide]

waterlogged pitch

 

[DialSquares]

at 0-2 so early i thought there is still a chance but not anymore...frustrating that i added the play because i really only liked it for the non-game reason and that's no reason to bet it. they really need to score before ht to have any shot...

as for the other two - rochdale 9th min and morecambe 21th min goals gave me a lot of hope as i really thought both visitors would win but hard to get that second goal....need a nice end to the half or a big early 2nd half. But not looking good...

ps i'll update the record soon - i am sure it should be 0-3 and 3+ units loss since the last time....i saved my spreadsheet to a disk and shipped it with my computer to my new city already but i should be keeping track on my labtop...

 

[rolltide]

hopefully you'll get a late one in rochdale and i get a couple in woking. gave up on nuneaton...hard to believe it's 0-0 55' there

 

[DialSquares]

going to be one of those days were betting over 2.5 and see 2 goals with a boatload of time for a third that just doesn't come............betting can be very frustrating sometimes....pompey made it interesting but a penality ruined that chance. I hate cup/international week..

 

[DialSquares]

S

Overall Record:
93-81-14 +4.39
October: 5-7-2 -2.12 units
September: 42-36-11 +2.07 units

Friday October 12th
World Cup EUROPE
Russia v Portugal
over 2 goals -130 -1.30 to win 1 unit
makes no sense the line is set at 2...weather should not be a factor. Both teams with 2 wins but really this is the matchup to determine first. If the top 2 made it to the WC or some next round i'd say 0-0 draw here and then in portugal but since only the top team makes it i don't see this to me a play tight for the draw type game. Certainly Portugal would play for the draw being on the road but Luxemborg managed a goal..both to score pays even so bookies are giving that a chance. Seems two counter attack type teams with plenty of quality knowing 3 points would give a huge edge to the winner. Since Russia knows it will be very difficult to win/draw in Portugal a draw here would be a big blow..knowing this Portugal could catch them on the counter....2 goals seem certain with perhaps a 2-1 1-2 winner...

Switzerland v Norway
Switzerland -138 - 1.38 to win 1 unit
I've always liked Switzerland esp at home and they really should win this group and beating Norway would go a long way to do that. Swiss 2-0 so far beating Albania and Slovenia 2-0. Norway loss a road match vs a better but still poor Iceland team and needed a 90th min penalty to beat Slovenia 2-1 at home. I know people don't count on friendlies but I certainly do and Norway beats teams like Northern Ireland and Thailand but loss to England, Greece, South Korea and Wales. Switzerland is a real threat to me for a good win not only in the qualifying but in the WC itself.

ran out of time so last bet without reasoning..sorry about that.

Wales v Scotland
Scotland pk -128 - 1.28 to win 1 unit

gl today

 

[DialSquares]

do you ever think this betting hobby just isn't worth it?

1-0 Russia in the 6th min - the bet over 2 goals = loser
Swiss take 79 mins but finally get a goal only to conceed 2 mins later = loser
Scotland 1-0 until the 81st min - tie is a push - Wales scores 2 in 9 mins = loser

i will give the Norway tie because it really looked like a 0-0 game but to not get a 2nd goal in 84 mins and to conceed two goals in 9 to lose outright...

gotta just laugh I guess..sorry if you followed - just some shit luck today i guess

 

[DialSquares]

record should have nearly 4 units less and 3 more losers to it......well time to forget yesterday - 1-0 Russia after 6 mins and miss the over 2....maybe not quite over it yet...

Saturday October 13th
England League One
Colchester v Stevenage
Stevenage pk -124 - 1.24 to win 1 unit
last season stevenage won 6-1 in Colchester and yet to lose in 11 matches this year. Very impressive 4 wins and 1 draw in 5 road matches winning matches against Notts, Oldham, Coventry and Leyton. Not the top sides but still teams better or near Colchester. Colchester 2 wins in 11...their home record is decent 1-3-1 drawing Sheffield and Crawley are good results. The 1 home win came against 2nd last Hartlepool and the other win on the road vs Swindon. I remember that match and Swindon had multiple chances and score did not reflect the match....so a poor side with just 2 wins in 11 vs a team yet to lose, and the ass whipping last season and money back on a draw.....gotta bet those everytime.

Sheffield v Oldham
over 2.5 goals -115 - 1.15 to win 1 unit
sometimes a weird odd gets me to bet them and this is the case. Sheffield with just 2 over in 11 matches and Oldham 2 overs in 10. Between the two clubs 1 over in 9 matches Sheffield home and Oldham away. Perhaps an 18 year old keeper and missing defenders along with a 2-3 match last season is the reason for the over to be favoured. I also think there are signs these two teams will be starting to play more overs and certainly these two teams were more over friendly last year. Maybe a dumb reason to bet but i think sometimes the line is telling you something the stats are not...let's hope so anyway.

England League Two
Gillingham v Aldershot Town
Gillingham -1 -102 -1.02 to 1 unit
Aldershot 2nd last, 4 straight league losses, played midweek in the JPT and have many players struggling for match fitness. Gillingham didn't play midweek so will be well rested and sit atop the standings. Gillingham 3-1-1 at home - last home match was a 1-2 loss to Rochdale but Gill. with a 33rd min red card and still battled. 2 of the 3 home wins were by more than a goal including a 3-1 win vs Bristol who sit 2 points ahead of aldershot. Aldershot 1-1-3 on the road - the two results came against bottom half teams Bristol and Plymouth...3 losses to Accrington, Torquay and Fleetwood. The Fleetwood match leads me to think Gillingham can win by 2+ as they won 4-1. Well rested, in form and at home vs a team in a big mess, played 4 days ago. That second goal for a winner is always tough in lower league but really should be a home win here.

 

[DialSquares]

well I am glad I am not a service because my last 15 picks have been horrible....the friday EUROPE matches were really bad beats and followed up by a red card and a BS called offside call hurt my saturday but in the end 3-12 is very poor. And now back to a losing record for the year....crazy swings for me all year.

Overall
99-91-16 -0.97 unitsOctober: 6-12-2 -7.47 Units
September: 42-36-11 +2.07 units
past 10: 2-8

Clearly waiting for me to turn this around is a wise move...i wouldn't fade outright because I am not a service and no one deserves that kind of talk..haha.....gl this week. I need it ....


Tuesday October 16th
World Cup Europe
Cyprus v Norway
Norway -106 - 1.06 to win 1 unit

Portugal v Northern Ireland
Portugal -2.5 - 121 - 1.21 to win 1 unit

Poland v England
England -102 - 1.02


i was going to take belgium -1.5 but i am thinking my mind is still on friday's collapse so no bet.

As for Canada - I've been through moments like this for Canadian soccer for many years and all signs point to a 2-0 3-0 hondurus win and we go home. Obviously i will be cheering against that but i just think any bet with Canada +0.5 is throwing your money away. We are still below where we need to be because we continue to hire people with no tactical understanding and how to win/draw in harsh environment. The pitch was poor but in a rather friendly Cuba match we barely won and at home vs Hondurus there was no plan..Occean missing is a blow even if he didn't score vs Cuba .... yeah a draw good enough but with no plan i think no chance. 2-0 hondurus...

sorry no write up today

 

[ARUKIDNME]

I am hoping we squeak out a draw.

BOL

 

[Ilovetobet]

bol

 

[DialSquares]

thanks guys ... england cancelled due to waterlogged pitch and super duper rain....funny they have a retractible roof but it doesn't cover the pitch...i read light rain this monring.

Let's count how many time Rickett's makes piss poor errors this game....so far 1

 

[DialSquares]

hondurus ml was probably the play of the year if we weren't canadians......you don't make the WC without players, tactics, coaching, etc....time after time -- I care more about club than country when it comes to soccer so i'm long over it but wow time to scrap anyone that thought putting Rickett's upfront today was the right move. We might see 7 goals today

 

[ARUKIDNME]

hondurus ml was probably the play of the year if we weren't canadians......you don't make the WC without players, tactics, coaching, etc....time after time -- I care more about club than country when it comes to soccer so i'm long over it but wow time to scrap anyone that thought putting Rickett's upfront today was the right move. We might see 7 goals today

Dial read my last post in RR11's thread. This was a fixxed lay down. McKenna is on the take, I watched the PAN/CAN match and it was the same crappy slow to react shit that didn't happen against Cuba. The offense is on the level but Canada has no natural strikers.

We'll see in 3 years when the next round of qualifying happens. PS Ricketts may be a dud but he has a hot girlfriend. Saw her on Friday, real nice, looks Hispanic.

 

[roundrobin11]

hondurus ml was probably the play of the year if we weren't canadians......you don't make the WC without players, tactics, coaching, etc....time after time -- I care more about club than country when it comes to soccer so i'm long over it but wow time to scrap anyone that thought putting Rickett's upfront today was the right move. We might see 7 goals today

I said the same thing to my friend today before the game. We were getting settled in to watch, we both knew what was ahead. Our homerism (if that's a word) obviously made us want to believe, but we knew it wasn't happening. I asked him if he bet on the draw too, he said yes. I looked at him, I'm like you know what man, this is wasted money lol. If we weren't Canadian, we would be pounding Honduras. We know this team too well, we know what's coming. They live to let down the fans. If we could have put our bias aside, we would have made a killing on Honduras. It was close to a sure thing. We laughed it off and just hoped we were wrong. Didn't take more than 10 minutes to realize just how right we really were.

 

[roundrobin11]

Dial read my last post in RR11's thread. This was a fixxed lay down. McKenna is on the take, I watched the PAN/CAN match and it was the same crappy slow to react shit that didn't happen against Cuba. The offense is on the level but Canada has no natural strikers.

We'll see in 3 years when the next round of qualifying happens. PS Ricketts may be a dud but he has a hot girlfriend. Saw her on Friday, real nice, looks Hispanic.

I've seen her around BMO too. Great body. Too bad he has no finish, hopefully he's not the same off the pitch as he is on it LOL...

As for McKenna, I wouldn't doubt it for a second. I was told before the game that he was playing with a cold. That's the perfect set up excuse. He's the second best defender on the pitch (aside from Figueroa) and he looked like the worst one today. He was right out of it. He's so tall yet on that first goal Honduras wins not one but two headers just at the top of the box. That's as fishy as it gets. He never loses those battles in the air.

And I'm not one to question Hart, I have a lot of respect for him. We've spoken on many occasions and I've been to countless press conferences with him, but what is he doing starting Klukowski in place of the "sick" Ante Jazic? Marcel de Jong is in form and a much more talented defender all around, yet Klukowski gets the start? That was a very interesting decision. McKenna, Jazic, Hirschfeld, Julian de Guzman and de Rosario will all be over 35 (or very close to it in JDGs case) when the next qualifying campaign commences. This was their last WC chance with Canada, we'll see a very different looking team when 2018 qualifying is underway in 2015. Shame they had to go out in such embarrassing fashion like this.

 

[DialSquares]

yeah - i can't see Hart surviving this one to be honest....they hyped up our making the hex before the cuba match that a 2-1 defeat might have saved him but 8-1 and a starting lineup that was a joke...Hume did more in his short run than silva..er..rickett's did all game. I definitely would have scored Rickett's first chance...oh well....it doesn't hurt so much getting knocked out of the WC when you knew it was coming after our 0-0 draw to Hondurus.....and to be honest it just would have been an embarrasment in the hex

no bet in the england match today for one reason - england players care more about club than country and now that it is wednesday and a long flight back home it is time for those guys to start thinking about sat/sun matches....if you think they are professional and want to qualify..blah blah blah....it is just not true to these english players. Move on from poland get a draw or worst and get paid to play on saturday.