Dial Square's 2012-13 Thread

[DialSquares]

np aruk - you can really tell if the players are with the manager when games like this happen....if they hated him they would have layed down for this one....

Sunday September 23rd
German Bundesliga II
1860 Munich v Braunschweig
1860 pk -141 -1.41 to win 1 unit
probably this first play is strickly for me because above -143 i would not recommend. The -0.25 could be a play but certianly a draw chance. This bet isn't just about the fact that it seems impossible for Braun to start 6-0 but also outside of Paderborn at home, Braun haven't been tested yet. Wins against Koln and Union Berlin seemed like great wins for Braun at the start but less impressive as those two teams struggle. 1860 2-3-0 to start the year with 2-0 at home and 3 away draws - 2 home wins were against Jahn and Duisburg so they haven't been tested either. But draws against Kaiserslautern, Dresden and Bochum are decent results. 1860 won this fixture last season 3-0 and i do wonder if Braun is truly a promotional side - we should find out a lot about them tomorrow. 1860 10-5 at home while Braun did only win 4 matches on the road. Brauns certainly improved and this has a high draw possibility but I think 1860 is the more likely promotion side and a very good home side. Tight low scoring match is most likely - i wouldn't bet the under though as i think both could score and look for a winner....2-1 1-0 home side.

Dresden v Ingolstadt
over 2.5 goals -111 -1.11 to win 1 unit
Ingolstadt are a very poor road team but seem to be good for a goal esp against teams like Dresden that tend to play high scoring matches. Ingolstadt scored a road goal vs St Pauli and 3 vs Paderborn. A better start to the year then normal but probably a relegation battle as normal. So far 3 overs in 5 matches for Ingolstadt - Dresden 4 overs in 5 matches and 2 overs in 2 home matches. 21 overs in 34 matches last season for dresden and so far the same trend this year. Ingolstadt might have a bit confidence they can win here so hopefully both sides go for goals (Dresden will at home...)...seems like anyone can win --- i like dresden play so i'll root for them..2-1.....

the third match in german II is just about the toughest match to predict...bochum and duisburg are very unpredictible this year and h2h is a coin toss. Really wouldn't even want to venture a guess.....

England Premier League
Liverpool v Manchester United
over 2.5 goals +104 -0.96 to win 1 unit
perhaps i am a sucker for just hoping this is a classic match featuring two historic sides but i like goals here....h2h in EPL in Liverpool 2 of the last 3 have been overs (3 of the last 5 including FA Cup match last season). But the truth is this is generally a low scoring match (over friendly in Manchester though). I think both score (books have it at -138) but with liverpool rather desperate for something positive for Steve Rodgers and Man Utd already losing in liverpool (to everton) I do feel this will be a 1-1 type draw. Both sides coming off europe wins at home and Liverpool rested their main players so fatigue will not be an issue. No doubt both sides have goals in them - more so for Man Utd - Liverpool looked flat vs Arsenal but if i remember right really should have beaten Citeh at home giving up some poor goals. Hopefully some more gifts come both teams ways tomorrow...if you like the under there is no reason to let me influence you agianst it.....part of me likes the above even odds where the line should really be -111 -118ish and most of me just likes early morning goal fests...in the end i still think liverpool is a 7-9th place side and lose here....and liverpool will be officially in the relegation zone....
-----------

as for the arsenal match - it would be hard to bet against Citeh----Arsenal have proven they are worthy of top 3 consideration but it is still a transition team - podolski and Cazorla are really carrying the club and city have the big players that can contain. Our defense has been great - 2 goals all year conceeded - 1 a goalie flop and 1 penalty in the CL. But these guys are due for boner plays....i think city win if i can be honest about it but it should be tougher than most think. I wouldn't bet it even if I wasn't a Gooner but i do think city win...3-0 wouldn't really surprise me either...but i'll be rooting against you if you do bet it.

gl

 

[DialSquares]

1-1-1 with the plays and juice lost...seems even for 3 days in a row so 1 more play to truly figure out how i did this weekend...kinda an obvious pick i imagine but i like a double

Spain La liga
Atletico Madrid + Real Madrid
double pays -125 -1.25 to win 1 unit
A Madrid vs a promotion side that already lost to bilbao 2-0 on the road and coming off a betis home lost. A Madrid appears to be the real deal and could compete with the top two for awhile in the standings. Long trip to Israel but an easy enough won there. Hopefully plenty of rest and ready for valla. Real Madrid coming off a hard faught win over City (2 game losing streak????) so that is a bit of a worry but 0-2 on the road seems crazy to believe they could start 0-3...and Real with 7 wins H2h in 8 matches in Vallencano. Home side drew Sevilla and perhaps the city match will effect them today with a draw but good chance both Madrid sides win ... C Rinaldo looked pretty happy scoring so maybe he is less sad then before...and maybe his agent has news Real plan of paying him more money if he keeps scoring.....or dump him..

gl today - hopefully the obvious in spain can come through....and liverpool can tie it.

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Nice call on the Liverpool v Man U match.

I can't believe how aggressive both sides played and I thought Liverpool were going to draw another Red Card with the way they were tackling. Rodgers really wanted to win and rather then sit on the draw with 10 men he kept pushing. That mentality of going for it helped with the over.

I think RM should win and even though Rayo have given them fits in the past they will notice the reduction in talent on the field and take advantage. BOL.

 

[rolltide]

damn i love seeing liverpool and qpr sitting in relegation zone

 

[DialSquares]

i am sure rodgers won't make it pass xmas...unless management like him. Not because today - it was a tough Pk call if you ask me...but we all know Man Utd get all those calls....hahaha....if wigan can join those two for the 3 relegation i would partly like it....although i don't think i'd take all that much joy in liverpool relegated...maybe for 5-8 months..haha....not going to happen of course. Nice deserved result for arsenal.....i have no idea why teams in the EPL defend 1 goal leads - a couple of counters but not near enough to finish the gunners off. i guess a small win with the madrids as real postponed i see....haven't checked why yet but i will....love winning -275 hahaha

 

[DialSquares]

just found out why the madrid match was cancelled. .. sabotage of the lights....so bet is still alive at my book - maybe not when i wake up tomorrow morning...but since the game happens tomorrow win or lose i`ll count it towards ye ol`record.

 

[rolltide]

nothing harsh about the penalty at all...two hand shove after tracking back 50 yards when Valencia took ball from him. easy decision

united were 2nd best team for sure....just not playing very well right now but will always take 5 straight wins without Rooney. Liverpool better at least show this week they are interested in league cup or manager won't make halloween

united/spurs on saturday...you all know what to do

 

[DialSquares]

i could see being late and tied a ref not calling it....maybe against swansea or west brom....hahaha...just kidding. Won my bet so i'm happy.

Very busy day for me so passing on soccer......might actually be passing all week - i hope not.....anyone watching the liverpool tv docu-series....so funny with all the belief in Rodgers and the team - i wonder if the show gets cancelled if they have 2 point by mid-october? Funny enough us amateur punters called the hiring a joke before a friendly was played....i wonder why it was so clear to us but not managment? ahh...who cares keep losing and arsenal keep getting results and even no silverware it would be a good season.

madrid bet still on for me - odds moved in favour of real probably for that 1 day extra rest...must have been a real supporter with the lights.

 

[DialSquares]

looking at some capitol one cup matches tomorrow...most likely i wont be around close to kick off time so in the end i might not bet but i have thoughts if anyone is thinking of betting..

leeds v everton
looks like a lot of injury concerns of leeds...if everton fields a strong enough side they should really win. If Becchio doesn't play and as i said everton is strong i would take them

chelsea v wolves
appears to be battle of team Bs...if you heard of Marko Marin, Lucas Piazon and Cesar Azpilicueta for chelsea congrats for you. Moses should start and show how rich clubs spend money on nothing but a full squad wolves could maybe surprise but not a team b. I guess chelski win but anything can happen - no doubt arsenal match is the important game this week/

man city v aston
city looks like a great side to use in a double or treble. City will make changes but unlike any other team in the EPL their changes are different....perhaps tevez or bartoli start which i think would be a huge positive. City owns villa in league and cup and at times villa was a good club...pretty sure city going for silverware at all places will win this one.

mk dons v sunderland
i think sunderlands wants to field a strong side but might not be able to because of knocks....mk dons beat blackburn and sunderland not all that much better. I am think over might be a good option if sunderland is strong...west ham really should have scored a few on the weekend. 1-2 2-1

west ham v wigan
wigan resting 7-8 players means the soccer punters at rx could win this one....maybe a weak west ham will be just as bad but i think they will win at thome.

i might stick to german football and everton but if i am around near kickoff i might post some capitol one cup picks.

 

[DialSquares]

i need to update the record - the units will be roughly the same +/- the juice...i'm moving which those who do know time is rough.....i wish i could be around for the lineups to like the plays a bit more or less but not going to happen so:

England Capitol One Cup
Leeds v Everton
Everton -0.5 -1.00 -125 - 1.25 to win 1 unit
seems like a cup everton can win - leeds will be missing a few and maybe their star striker...if Becchio doesn't start and everton looks half decent i'd definitely bet them. I did already and just have to hope the lineups are good - really should be though.

Southampton v Shieffeld
over 3 goals -114 - 1.14 to win 1 unit

Man City v Villa
Man city -1.50 +100 -1.00 to win 1 unit
certainly man city's team B is better than almost every team's A side - villa appears to be resting players and i like the idea City players playing for starting roles like Super Mario and no longer in the doghouse Tevez...might be a 1 goal win but worth the risk....3-0

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Dial what do you feel the chances are of the Leeds v Everton match going over the total of 3 goals?

I was looking at this match up and may post an over for it.

 

[roundrobin11]

I backed Sunderland to win at +120... Martin O'Neill takes the League Cup very seriously. He has a great record in this tournament and is fielding a very strong squad today to take on MK Dons. At this price, hard not to back the visitors and O'Neill to continue his cup success.

Sunderland for me... Also put some on City -1.5, Bradford to win and Sheffield/Southampton over 3.

 

[DialSquares]

i guess everton over 3 is good since they need to score 2 for me -- haha...1-0 after 4 mins i see...hope on city and maybe a push in soton....i see one shot on net for everton - i guess they really do think they are top 4 EPL material...haha....i think coventry will lose tomorrow....just a gut feeling.

 

[DialSquares]

well that sucked.....just too busy to really look at games and I am heading to the big city of North Bay Ontario at least for the winter in the next couple of weeks so i might be a no-show for awhile....i might still try and cap/bet some matches but we will see.

 

[roundrobin11]

well that sucked.....just too busy to really look at games and I am heading to the big city of North Bay Ontario at least for the winter in the next couple of weeks so i might be a no-show for awhile....i might still try and cap/bet some matches but we will see.

Hopefully you can stick around in the mean time! But best of luck with the move, go GUNNERS!

 

[DialSquares]

thanks roundrobin - i had to take a break so last night i spent time looking at german II matches....two ultra-favs and a german II under so who knows:

German Bundesliga II
Braunschweig vs. Duisburg
Braunschweig -1 -109 -1.09 to win 1 unit
i find it hard to believe - even midweek - braun will waste such a great start to the year and not beat lowly Duisburg.....I think they are already printing letterheads that say 'German 3 liga" Duisburg 1 point in 6 matches which came last round against a very tough to predict bochum side known for laying eggs. Two promotional ready clubs 1860 Munich and Kaiserlauten beat Duisburg and even Jahn won at home 2-0 vs Duisburg. Braun drawing 1860 on the road was a great result and 5 wins 1 draw in 6 is fantastic. All 3 home matches were wins but all by 1 goal - it is tough to get 2+ goal wins but so far not against Duisburg...h2h record not all that great but i don't think brauns been this confident and a win would put them back atop the league.

Hertha v Dresden
Hertha -1 +102 - 0.98 to win 1 unit
i'd hate to take both favourite but i watched dresden and they had nothing - a couple of chances if i remember correctly but losing to ingolstadt at home is almost a crime. Hertha can move into a tie for the promotional playoff spot and although it is far too early to really care it would be a nice boost going into the next round of the cup. Dresden might be slightly looking ahead in the cup vs Hannover and perhaps beating a I German side but probably not. Hertha got knocked out so no worries for them. Hertha really should be promoted at season's end (unless Braun keeps winning) and Dresden is a very tough team and no doubt will try and forget the Ingolstadt match. Home side with a quick turnaround of games I think Hertha take it. Hopefully by 2+ goals.

Aue v Union Berlin
under 2.5 goals -124 -1.24 to win 1 unit
going to continue to ride aue unders for a bit....Union with 3 straight overs (2-1 1-2 matches) but Koln and Hertha should be near the top for overs and ingolstadt was a stoppage time goal. Aue with just 1 over in 6 matches this year - Cottbus beat them round 2 3-0 at home. If Union is allowed to control the play it could go over but Aue tend to play such tight boring games and in the past Union matches have been 1-1 0-0 0-1. Both in relegation so a win would be big for one side but that could make for a nervous start....

----
i like goals in hoffenheim match in german I but that was the only game i looked at. I might take a break and watch these german II matches while capping the later games. If i do i will post my thoughts whether i bet them or not. I will say as for as Capitol One - if United field a weaken side like they have in the pass I could see newcastle win outight but esp the +1 or +0.75 would be a great bet. Man U really have little depth I think at least for a supposed big club...maybe hernandez wins it for them though and newcastle certainly always has injury concerns.

I think the gunners will cruise but we sometimes can't play down to teams and draw/1 goal win and certainly if Arshavin and Chamakh play we could be in trouble...i'd love for those guys to start and play great but history tells us otherwise. QPR odds look good and i wonder if tottenham will everton themselves out of the cup to concentrate on the league and top 4.

so afternoon leans
over in hoffenheim German I
Newcastle +1 or +0.75
QPR

but just the german II bets for now....back to work.

 

[DialSquares]

i guess we cannot be too upset over hertha not scoring the 2nd when union scored so early and braun took awhile to score...2-0 with a push. I'm skipping england but i do think QPR is a good bet. I won't be around for the lineups in the man utd so no bet....i guess is Man U is weak and Newcastle is strong i'd take the +0.75 or +0.5 but i think Man utd will field a strong enough side.

One more play:
German Bundesliga I
Stuttgart v Hoffenheim
over 3 goals -125 -1.25 to win 1 unit

the way the odds are set up I think we will get a three goal push....

 

[DialSquares]

Capped games for tomorrow waiting around so i am going to post tonight because i probably won't have much time tomorrow.....i will comment about the german II match - Bochum is still getting funny results for me. 2-2-2 record makes sense because that's the type of team they will be all year. Kaiser should be favoured - but they might have one eye on the cup match vs Bayern Munich. Sure Kaiser will want to be promoted but players are human and a trip to the Allianz Arena is always a thrill. I think Bochum might surprise some and take this one but i wouldn't want to trust this time to win.

Sweden Allsvenskan
Hacken vs. Helsingborg
over 2.5 goals -143 - 1.43 to win 1 unit
right at the limit of my juice ... i like the over 2.75 but the numbers don't look so good at the over 3 line. Last season in Hacken the match ended 1-1 but prior to that 7 straight h2h matches have been overs. Hacken 10 overs in 11 home matches - and 10 of the last 11 matches have been overs. I think the CL qualifiers and now EUROPA is catching up to Helsingborg - they are still scoring but not getting league results. 7 of helsingborg's last 8 have been overs - 1-1 last round vs malmo but that was days after their europa lost to levante. Helsingborg can still get into the european race for next year but they will need to win matches like this - but hacken has a great record vs helsingborg and would take over 1st with a win. I think both score - but it doesn't look like a tie match...1-2 2-1...maybe 4 goals on a good day.

Sweden Superettan
Umeaa vs. Trelleborg
over 2.5 goals -136 - 1.36 to win 1 unit
Umea 9 overs in 12 home matches - Trelleborg 8 overs in 12 road matches. 4 of trell`s last 5 road matches have been overs and 4 of 5 home matches of umea`s matches have been over. With both clubs deep in relegation zone I dont think a draw here would be such a good result for either side. Sometimes poor clubs are over friendly because they dont score but conceed 3-4 goals per game. But in this case both sides do score and i think will score. 1-1 wouldn`t be a good result -
Umea with 4 home wins in their last 5 so perhaps they should have a slight edge....3-1 2-1 makes sense.

Swiss Super League
Thun v Young Boys Bern
draw +250 -0.40 to win 1 unit
my posting draws hasn't gone so well but good draw chance here - last 4 h2h have been draws and 9 of the last 11 have been draws. 2 draws in 4 road matches for young boys. Not much else as draws are crap shoot - but that h2h draw record is hard to ignore.

Gl tomorrow.....very nice result for arsenal...not the score but the fact Giroud scored...i imagine Arsene started him knowing a goal might be coming....now he can get a few EPL goals. Arshavin scoring is good too but he always does well against weaker sides....he just has to show up when we play city or barca or utd....

 

[DialSquares]

if matches lasted 88 mins it would have been a sweep....in fact if matches lasted 80 mins i'd be up 1 million dollars lifetime betting....although the late goals would sink me in the 79th min......

Friday Sept 28th
i think at -125ish schalke has some good value...Dusseldorf was a very strong road side in german II but this is the bundesliga and schalke are a serious 1st place threat team this year. Dussel yet to lose though and certainly would take a 3rd draw in 3 home matches. First real test I think - Borussia was a test but Borussia were coming off a Champions League match days before in Kiev. Schalke will be much more prepared and rested and already beat promotional side Furth on the road. Tough match and maybe better to skip but if the first few games go my way i might bet it.....

German Bundesliga II
Paderborn v Koln
over 2.5 goals -112 -1.12 to win 1 unit
Paderborn 6 overs in 7 matches this season - Koln with just 2 but both overs came in the last two rounds and they are starting to score. Paderborn only under came against the kings of unders Aue on the road. I watched Koln recently and they seem to be improving and really need to start winning. Might be tough vs Paderborn but i think they will be going for it and not sitting back. Paderborn isn't a team to stop at 1 goal either so a little desperate road side vs a team that can pile on goals at home I think we will see a 2-1 3-1 type score...Koln winning would definitely not surprise me though but i think more work needs to be done before they can win on the road in Paderborn.

Aalen v Frankfurt
over 2, 2.5 -119 - 1.19 to win 1 unit
surprise the odds have moved towards the under. Aalen being so favoured is a bit bizarre too but it is hard to trust Frankfurt on the road despite the great start to the year. Allen 3 home matches 2-0 win to Aue (under giants), and lost 1-2 to kaiser and 0-3 to braun. Both those clubs are early promotion candidates...if Frankfurt really was one they would win here but i doubt it. Yet they have proven they can score - scoring in all 4 road matches. At the over 1.5 goaline aalen 3 over in 3 home matches and frankfurt 4 overs in 4 road matches...so 1/2 loser 1/2 void is definitely a strong possibility. I think both score because Aalen have given up goals and Frankfurt defense is always a question - but frankfurt do not draw very often on the road - just 4 draws last year and the year before and 3 draws three years ago. 2-1 1-2 makes a lot of sense - i took the over 2.25 becuase 1-1 is always possibility but if the over 2.5 is only available i would still take it.

--- st pauli just not winning enough to trust them but damn +137 is mighty tempting - Jahn is very poor but st pauli are coming off a home lose to aalen. That could be a motivational factor and I think not winning here would pretty much write off St Pauli's chances of promotion so perhaps a very desperate side could finally produce a great game...but until results start happening i will not be tempted by the great odds...i see 0-2 0-3 road win but odds this good usually lose...so no bet.

French Ligue II
Clermont v Laval
over 2 goals -132 - 1.32 to win 1 unit
the lure of the over 2 french 2 caught me today - first time i've actually looked into french ii and noticed over 1.5 goals is hitting at a 72% rate. But I think at least a push is very likely and then hope for a 3rd goal and a winner. At the 1.5 goaling Clermont have 3 overs in 3 home matches and Laval 4 overs in 4 road matches. H2h in Clermont 6 of the last 8 h2h had at least 2 goals with plenty of 3+ goal matches...last two h2h Clermont won 2-0. (clermont foot 8 overs at the 1.5 goal mark in 8 matches) At the over 2.5 goaline - Clermont 2 overs in 2 home matches with laval playing 3 overs in 4 road matches. Good over stats last year for both sides as well.....getting the third goal will tough and hopefully usa books have french over 2 at a good odds - i wouldn't touch the over 2.5 unless you really want to gamble today.

gl - i really like sigma -1 in czech, and schalke in german I so if the first few do well i'll be taking those....

 

[DialSquares]

i was hoping to get the third goal in the aalen match but not looking good..1-2 afternoon i think but still a chance to push in france.....the czech match i was leaning is now sigma -1 -146 which is just a bit too much juice...so no bet. I wouldn't take a czech side to win by 2+

so German Bundesliga I
Fortuna Dusseldorf v FC Schalke 04
Schalke 04 -109 - 1.09 to win 1 unit
certainly a risk because fortuna is proving themselves - i would debate it is more likely the teams they are playing rather than any proof they can compete...we do see a II get promoted and make a run for top 3-4. I am hoping Schalke gives a good old fashion welcome to the Bundesliga I with a 0-2 0-3 win....a bit of a risky play..

gl - sorry short reasoning ... Aruk has the draw so i wonder if anyone well take Fortuna straight winner...haha..0-1 schalke and we will both be happy....

ps haha...gotta love 86 min goals.....only took a day to go from hating them to loving them....thanks Aalen and frankfurt for showing your true colours today.

pps saink pauli are horrible eh? Wow - i imagine they will hold off relegation but i didn't see top 9-13 this year