i really needed that goal because it would have been a 1-2 day and down roughly 3.5 units...and the way it went i doubt i would have wanted to bet the rest of the month. Too bad for Everton backers because it was pure robbery out there.....as a Gooner we stay 3rd and that's good and conceeded those two goals perhaps the draw was just in the end..
Thanks for the congrats and on to tomorrow....looks tough in the CL at first glance....
Thanks for the congrats and on to tomorrow....looks tough in the CL at first glance....
I will say a few words about Arsenal today with no bets...Firstly I wouldn't read too much into Arsene making changes from last game...he could put Giroud, Walcott and Ramsay in the starting lineup and call it 3 changes. The fact that you can get Arsenal pk around -136 is crazy to me. Montpellier have struggled without Giroud and the first ever CL Group Match can go horribly wrong and the announcer gets to say 'Welcome to the Champions League....". That being said a draw here with the weak group is a good result since we do have to worry about Man City on the weekend. I love Arsenal at the pk line but a good reason i don't bet them is I generally always like them to win (except when they are losing and i go back on the fence..haha....). I think there are better bets out there as well.....
I don't really like needing 3 overs in one day but i liked all three and don't like taking sides midweek in England....in fact find the 3 biggest dogs in the three lower level of English footy and bet them +0.5 and youa'll probably come up on top.
Tuesday September 18th
England Championship
Peterborough vs. Bristol City
over 2.5, 3.0 -114 -1.14 to win 1 unit
I do love my P'boro home overs....esp when the visitors don't mind the over game. So far P'boro 2 overs in 2 home matches (0-2 on over 3.5 though). Bristol City 3 overs in 5 matches but 0 overs in 2 road matches. P'boro 16 overs in 23 home matches last season - Bristol about a 50-50 O/U on the road last year. Last season P'boro won the home fixture 3-0. Fergie Jr is talking about fixing their defensive woes for today but i don't really buy it...they are an offensive side and cannot change in 1 match. Definitely a winnable (and must win) for P'boro but hard to see this team keeping a clean sheet....perhaps just 3 goals but over 2.5 pays just a touch too high.
Blackburn vs. Barnsley
over 3 goals +110 - 0.90 to win 1 unit
Blackburn without defenders Gael Givet and Markus Olsson which are big blows and could help Barnsely get a goal. But realistically this will be an easy enough win from Blackburn. (if you ignore the midweek comment above
) Wolves beat Barnsley 3-1 and Brighton wins 5-1 at home and certainly blackburn could produce similar result. But as I said, weakened defense and the fact Barnsley scores against teams like Wolves, Blackpool, Middlesbrough and Swansea (cup) so good enough to score. Just 7 overs in 16 road matches last season for Barnsely so Blackburn might need to do most of the scoring but much like Newcastle should have done at the start yesterday, knowing you are weaker at the back, B'burn should really go for goals early and often. Blackburn last few matches 5-3, 3-3, and two 2-1 scores. 2-1 possible and it is midweek but 3-1 4-1 more likely imo.
Blackpool v Middlesborough
over 2.5 goals -137 - 1.37 to win 1 unit
blackpool's two home matches 6-0 win vs Ipswich and 2-1 to leeds...M'boro had a 3 match over streak ended with a 2-0 home win. There is a potential for a lot of returning players for both sides and should bolster both sides. Last season Blackpool had the most overs with 30 in 46 matches but were mostly a road over side...but still 13 overs in 23 home matches. M'boro was one of the top under sides but due to just 5 overs in 23 home matches and had 12 overs in 23 road matches. Last season H2h blackpool won 3-0 at home and drew 2-2 in M'boro. In fact in 4 matches H2H just 1 under a 2-0 B'pool win. This being a potential match between two promotion sides and being early and midweek i could see a 1-1 settle...but Blackpool will fancy a win and really should get at home. 3-0 wouldn't shock me but looks like 2-1...i don't really like the over 3 though so taking the juice hit.
if you are looking for early action there is a strong chance of the over in the Finland match with Marienhamn....i didn't like it enough to bet but i know action is fun so maybe a good bet.
ps i do have CL leans and probably 2 plays..should post them soon. GL
--------
Overall:
69-66-8 -0.84 units
September 18-23-5 -5.2 units
August 46-36-2 8.14 units
I don't really like needing 3 overs in one day but i liked all three and don't like taking sides midweek in England....in fact find the 3 biggest dogs in the three lower level of English footy and bet them +0.5 and youa'll probably come up on top.
Tuesday September 18th
England Championship
Peterborough vs. Bristol City
over 2.5, 3.0 -114 -1.14 to win 1 unit
I do love my P'boro home overs....esp when the visitors don't mind the over game. So far P'boro 2 overs in 2 home matches (0-2 on over 3.5 though). Bristol City 3 overs in 5 matches but 0 overs in 2 road matches. P'boro 16 overs in 23 home matches last season - Bristol about a 50-50 O/U on the road last year. Last season P'boro won the home fixture 3-0. Fergie Jr is talking about fixing their defensive woes for today but i don't really buy it...they are an offensive side and cannot change in 1 match. Definitely a winnable (and must win) for P'boro but hard to see this team keeping a clean sheet....perhaps just 3 goals but over 2.5 pays just a touch too high.
Blackburn vs. Barnsley
over 3 goals +110 - 0.90 to win 1 unit
Blackburn without defenders Gael Givet and Markus Olsson which are big blows and could help Barnsely get a goal. But realistically this will be an easy enough win from Blackburn. (if you ignore the midweek comment above
Blackpool v Middlesborough
over 2.5 goals -137 - 1.37 to win 1 unit
blackpool's two home matches 6-0 win vs Ipswich and 2-1 to leeds...M'boro had a 3 match over streak ended with a 2-0 home win. There is a potential for a lot of returning players for both sides and should bolster both sides. Last season Blackpool had the most overs with 30 in 46 matches but were mostly a road over side...but still 13 overs in 23 home matches. M'boro was one of the top under sides but due to just 5 overs in 23 home matches and had 12 overs in 23 road matches. Last season H2h blackpool won 3-0 at home and drew 2-2 in M'boro. In fact in 4 matches H2H just 1 under a 2-0 B'pool win. This being a potential match between two promotion sides and being early and midweek i could see a 1-1 settle...but Blackpool will fancy a win and really should get at home. 3-0 wouldn't shock me but looks like 2-1...i don't really like the over 3 though so taking the juice hit.
if you are looking for early action there is a strong chance of the over in the Finland match with Marienhamn....i didn't like it enough to bet but i know action is fun so maybe a good bet.
ps i do have CL leans and probably 2 plays..should post them soon. GL
--------
Overall:
69-66-8 -0.84 units
September 18-23-5 -5.2 units
August 46-36-2 8.14 units
good to hear cocktail...gl with City today - i think watching Jose and C Rinaldo pissed off so i'll root for you guys...
UEFA Champions League
PSG v Kiev
PSG -132 -1.32 to win 1 unit
i guess it is my turn to lose money with PSG today but the odds have been dropped down to the point where i just have to take it. I realize it was a poor start of the year but with changes that's going to happen to some teams. Last 2 French matches have been wins and Lille/Toulouse are tough enough clubs....the fact Ibrahimovic have scored 3 goals in 2 matches is huge and outside of maybe Messi and Oliver Giroud I don't know who i'd want in a CL match to score. This PSG team is built for CL and although you don't just win CL matches by buying players..cough cough....i do think at home with a pretty pumped crowd they should win. Kiev has the experience and did beat Borussia Mgladbach on the road but they haven't really down much in europe for awhile. Kiev haven't managed to qualify out of the group stages in at least 7 years..maybe more....always tough to win in Kiev and Kiev do manage road draws but teams like Besitkas and Rubin have home wins in Europe recently. I do think PSG are figuring it out and a in-form Zlatan should net one...1-0 seems about right...love the under but went with PSG....and now i'll wonder how it didn't hit...haha
Dortmund v Ajax
under 3 goals -110 -1.10 to win 1 unit
i watched Dortmund with interest last year in the group stages and at home they really didn't strike me as an over side - the arsenal match was 1-1 with a wonder striker to prevent a 1-0 arsenal win. In 3 home matches 1 over and that was the crazy final day where OM won 2-3 when Dortmund was out of any cup (or soon would be.). Being that these two sides realize a draw would be a poor result it could be a more wide open affair but to me this means it will be very tight as both sides won't want to conceed early. And if a team does score a goal I think they will defend it for as long as they can. Ajax played 1 road 2.5 over with a 3-0 lost to Real Madrid...I don't think Dortmund have 3 goals in them...the odds for Dortmund are a joke...they are not the same team as last year. Ajax scored 17 goals in 5 league matches but 11 came against Breda and Nijmegen. To me this will be much tighter with a few goal scorer chances...neither team will want to draw so it will open up but perhaps in the 2nd half and late...2-0 with a late 2nd goal seems about right but 0-0 0-1 1-0 makes a lot of sense to me. In any case I don't see 4+ goals in the 1st group match...
UEFA Champions League
PSG v Kiev
PSG -132 -1.32 to win 1 unit
i guess it is my turn to lose money with PSG today but the odds have been dropped down to the point where i just have to take it. I realize it was a poor start of the year but with changes that's going to happen to some teams. Last 2 French matches have been wins and Lille/Toulouse are tough enough clubs....the fact Ibrahimovic have scored 3 goals in 2 matches is huge and outside of maybe Messi and Oliver Giroud I don't know who i'd want in a CL match to score. This PSG team is built for CL and although you don't just win CL matches by buying players..cough cough....i do think at home with a pretty pumped crowd they should win. Kiev has the experience and did beat Borussia Mgladbach on the road but they haven't really down much in europe for awhile. Kiev haven't managed to qualify out of the group stages in at least 7 years..maybe more....always tough to win in Kiev and Kiev do manage road draws but teams like Besitkas and Rubin have home wins in Europe recently. I do think PSG are figuring it out and a in-form Zlatan should net one...1-0 seems about right...love the under but went with PSG....and now i'll wonder how it didn't hit...haha
Dortmund v Ajax
under 3 goals -110 -1.10 to win 1 unit
i watched Dortmund with interest last year in the group stages and at home they really didn't strike me as an over side - the arsenal match was 1-1 with a wonder striker to prevent a 1-0 arsenal win. In 3 home matches 1 over and that was the crazy final day where OM won 2-3 when Dortmund was out of any cup (or soon would be.). Being that these two sides realize a draw would be a poor result it could be a more wide open affair but to me this means it will be very tight as both sides won't want to conceed early. And if a team does score a goal I think they will defend it for as long as they can. Ajax played 1 road 2.5 over with a 3-0 lost to Real Madrid...I don't think Dortmund have 3 goals in them...the odds for Dortmund are a joke...they are not the same team as last year. Ajax scored 17 goals in 5 league matches but 11 came against Breda and Nijmegen. To me this will be much tighter with a few goal scorer chances...neither team will want to draw so it will open up but perhaps in the 2nd half and late...2-0 with a late 2nd goal seems about right but 0-0 0-1 1-0 makes a lot of sense to me. In any case I don't see 4+ goals in the 1st group match...
Thank You!
I hate picking and choosing plays (especially when you have 3 OVERs), but I liked your writeup/explanation so much that i went BIG on this over. I was happy to see a 2-1 lead by Blackpool at halftime for an easy winner. I wanted to say THANKS! Great job on the sweep today....i believe you went 4-0-1....i'd take that any day of the week =)....looking fwd to future action, keep rollin!
I hate picking and choosing plays (especially when you have 3 OVERs), but I liked your writeup/explanation so much that i went BIG on this over. I was happy to see a 2-1 lead by Blackpool at halftime for an easy winner. I wanted to say THANKS! Great job on the sweep today....i believe you went 4-0-1....i'd take that any day of the week =)....looking fwd to future action, keep rollin!
thanks guys - i would love a big run to get this year off ---- been at the even for the year spot since i started...a pk very late helped a 1/2 in p'boro match....kinda dissapointed to push blackburn but no real complaints. Blackpool, PSG and the under were easy but still had to sweat for the others and even the gooners winning. I do agree Aruk that a certain read of the game looked like an over bet but being the first match and no one wanting to be out early i thought it would play out much like it did...city v real was an example of how one goal can just explode into a goal fest but dortmund scored it too late for that.
I think Arsenal probably loses to some teams with the 2nd half performance but glad to get the road win....giroud a non-factor again but i thought our defense played well. Going to be interesting how citeh response to the everton like collapse and such a cheap goal in the end (not blaming the keeper as much as the defendor) smells like an over in the EPL match on the weekend ....
I think Arsenal probably loses to some teams with the 2nd half performance but glad to get the road win....giroud a non-factor again but i thought our defense played well. Going to be interesting how citeh response to the everton like collapse and such a cheap goal in the end (not blaming the keeper as much as the defendor) smells like an over in the EPL match on the weekend ....
Tuesday Septemeber 19th
Champions League
Braga v Cluj
Braga -1 -135 -1.35 to win 1 unit
i regret not posting last night as odds have shifted...i would never take the -1.25 or -1.5 here...braga with either man u or donestk might be a good option is -1 isn't available. I underestimed Cluj against Basel but i don't think i am here. Romanian sides seem to be improving and getting to the group stage but not fairing well in the cl proper. Otelul Galati with 0 points last season including losses to Portugual's Benfica....two years ago Cluj lost all 3 road matches in the group phase, and three years ago Unirea U lost 2 out of the 3 road matches (beat Rangers). I realize how other teams do is not a big deal but I will say that Romanian football is still a class below and over the last couple of years Portugal teams have proven themselves in the European circuit. With Man utd and Gala in the group I do think winning at home will be a must for Braga. Braga haven't played since sept 2nd and i think that is a big worry but they will be riding high qualifying in Udinese. Cluj won in both Liberec, and Basel which is very impressive but i am hoping that just let's Braga know to not underestimate them. Braga last year won 2 out of 3 in the EUROPA group phase beating Maribor 4-1 and Birmingham 1-0 ... 2 years ago reached the EUROPA final with some impressive home wins including wins vs Liverpool, Kiev and Benfica. Two years ago they failed the qualify out of the group stage but did beat both Arsenal and Partizan at home 2-0...2-0 seems right here.
I have a couple more plays but odds are drifting on this one so posting early...GL
Champions League
Braga v Cluj
Braga -1 -135 -1.35 to win 1 unit
i regret not posting last night as odds have shifted...i would never take the -1.25 or -1.5 here...braga with either man u or donestk might be a good option is -1 isn't available. I underestimed Cluj against Basel but i don't think i am here. Romanian sides seem to be improving and getting to the group stage but not fairing well in the cl proper. Otelul Galati with 0 points last season including losses to Portugual's Benfica....two years ago Cluj lost all 3 road matches in the group phase, and three years ago Unirea U lost 2 out of the 3 road matches (beat Rangers). I realize how other teams do is not a big deal but I will say that Romanian football is still a class below and over the last couple of years Portugal teams have proven themselves in the European circuit. With Man utd and Gala in the group I do think winning at home will be a must for Braga. Braga haven't played since sept 2nd and i think that is a big worry but they will be riding high qualifying in Udinese. Cluj won in both Liberec, and Basel which is very impressive but i am hoping that just let's Braga know to not underestimate them. Braga last year won 2 out of 3 in the EUROPA group phase beating Maribor 4-1 and Birmingham 1-0 ... 2 years ago reached the EUROPA final with some impressive home wins including wins vs Liverpool, Kiev and Benfica. Two years ago they failed the qualify out of the group stage but did beat both Arsenal and Partizan at home 2-0...2-0 seems right here.
I have a couple more plays but odds are drifting on this one so posting early...GL
going to ride a couple more overs...but nothing else in the Champions League
England Leauge Two
Npower League Two
Burton v York
over 2.5 goals -119 -1.19 to win 1 unit
A couple of old Conference National sides facing each other - no matches since 2008 but last three in Burton have been overs. Burton 4 overs in 6 matches and 2 overs in 3 home matches. York 5 overs in 6 matches with 2 overs in 3 road matches. York have scored 12 goals in 6 matches and York 11 goals. I might be a bit influenced by the 2-4 cup win from burton since i took leicester to win and noticed all those goals scored.
England Championship
Sheffield v Huddersfield
over 2.5 goals -116 -1.16 to win 1 unit
two things stand out for me....Sheffield 5 overs in 5 matches this year and the h2h in Sheffield last year that ended 4-4. Rhodes scored all 4 Hudders goal and he has moved on to Blackburn. Hudders just 1 over but it was their last road match 2-2 - and are 1-1 on O/U on the road. Impressive home wins for Hudders vs Derby and Burnley. Sheffield's two home matches ended with 3-2 wins. Both sides have fit in well early on in the championship ... 1-1 final does worry me but both teams should fancy the win and being midweek perhaps road side wins 1-2.
----
i will say that man utd -1.5 and both Valencia and Juve might win their AH bet. But I would never take an Italian team to beat an English side in England...seems England club come on top a lot. GL today.
England Leauge Two
Npower League Two
Burton v York
over 2.5 goals -119 -1.19 to win 1 unit
A couple of old Conference National sides facing each other - no matches since 2008 but last three in Burton have been overs. Burton 4 overs in 6 matches and 2 overs in 3 home matches. York 5 overs in 6 matches with 2 overs in 3 road matches. York have scored 12 goals in 6 matches and York 11 goals. I might be a bit influenced by the 2-4 cup win from burton since i took leicester to win and noticed all those goals scored.
England Championship
Sheffield v Huddersfield
over 2.5 goals -116 -1.16 to win 1 unit
two things stand out for me....Sheffield 5 overs in 5 matches this year and the h2h in Sheffield last year that ended 4-4. Rhodes scored all 4 Hudders goal and he has moved on to Blackburn. Hudders just 1 over but it was their last road match 2-2 - and are 1-1 on O/U on the road. Impressive home wins for Hudders vs Derby and Burnley. Sheffield's two home matches ended with 3-2 wins. Both sides have fit in well early on in the championship ... 1-1 final does worry me but both teams should fancy the win and being midweek perhaps road side wins 1-2.
----
i will say that man utd -1.5 and both Valencia and Juve might win their AH bet. But I would never take an Italian team to beat an English side in England...seems England club come on top a lot. GL today.
i'm seeing 17-3-2 L22 in CL
http://www.eurocupshistory.com/matc...gland_against_italy_in_uefa_club_competitions
damn rolltide that stat is huge....people will say 'yeah but ...' are explain why juve would win/draw but how many times have people said that in the 22 matches.....it's almost worth taking chelsea pk just based off of that stat alone. It's kinda like the Man City match where it is probably the most appealing of all the matches .. but i'm passing...why you'd want to cheer for chelsea to win is beyond me anyway
gl to you varkey....i wrote this elsewhere but surely someone somewhere has had two good days in a row betting????? haha....
gl to you varkey....i wrote this elsewhere but surely someone somewhere has had two good days in a row betting????? haha....
yeah big stat for sure
surprised to see Gala is 0-3-4 in England. figured it'd been something like 0-1-6. United only 3-2-2 hosting Turkish teams
Not surprisingly russians are now 2-0-10 after yday when visiting spain. could be real ugly for spartak today
had to look up scotland (or more correctly rangers/celtic) vs Portuguese squad...interesting they do ok. 6-4-3 last 13 and that includes away
surprised to see Gala is 0-3-4 in England. figured it'd been something like 0-1-6. United only 3-2-2 hosting Turkish teams
Not surprisingly russians are now 2-0-10 after yday when visiting spain. could be real ugly for spartak today
had to look up scotland (or more correctly rangers/celtic) vs Portuguese squad...interesting they do ok. 6-4-3 last 13 and that includes away
the main reason i didn't take man utd was the recent turkish matches....Bursaspor only lost 1-0 at OT and Besistkas beat Man Utd 0-1 at OT. Man utd could win by 1 and wouldn't care and liverpool on the weekend is the big rival match....i heard rooney might be on the bench but i doubt he'll play a part.
