well 0-3 BATE, 0-2 Cluj are surprise ht results....i don't give the eastern euro teams much credit outside of teams like donestk and some russia clubs. I'm not watching braga but i wonder if cluj is for real or are they rusty....2-2 ft wouldn't shock me but i don't see 3-2 braga.
an early goal in the burton match 2nd half would help and make it a winning day.....but 1-1 ht scores are so hard to break in england it seems...
ps chelsea's oscar with some sweet goals.
an early goal in the burton match 2nd half would help and make it a winning day.....but 1-1 ht scores are so hard to break in england it seems...
ps chelsea's oscar with some sweet goals.
looks like my leans (man utd -1.5 and benfica -0.25) would have lost so glad i stuck with just 3 plays - just glad it is a winning day. No bet Thursday for me - i might post europa leans but definitely not betting anything.
gl with football this weekend - i should be back with friday posts.
gl with football this weekend - i should be back with friday posts.
NP varkey always happy to help a fellow over bettor ....
I feel a little silly posting plays when i don't bet them myself but i did look at some EUROPA tomorrow and i do like a few...might be a last second bet to cure boredom but i doubt it and certainly nowhere near my normal size bets.....i'd fade myself with europa plays but that doesn't seem to work either....
Thursday Sept 19th
EUROPA
Copenhagen v Molde
Copenhagen -0.75 -125 -1.25 to win 1 unit
i think copenhagen is a great european type team with plenty of experience..they struggled a bit in the group stage last year winning just 1 of 3 but hannover and standard were tough opponents. Cope did beat Lille at home in the CL qualifier losing at in extras in the 2nd leg. Cope are coming off a 2-1 home win vs a fairly hot and last year's winners Nordsjalland. Molde are impressive knocking out Heerenveen and almost beating Basel in the CL. They are just 4-2-5 on the road in norway and norway teams struggle against danish sides. In fact Denmark sides are W6 D1 L3 at home vs Norway sides. Much more experienced and probably a touch better home side....to me Copenhagen wins the home match and proabably loses/draws the road one.
Twente v Hannover
over 2.5, 3.0 goals -125 -1.25 to win 1 unit
hannover are coming off europa qualifiers were they beat slask 5-1 and 5-3, and they beat st patricks 3-0 on the road. Twente in their qualifiers 3-1 and 1-3 vs bursaspor. Twente 15 goals in 5 Dutch matches and although german football is a step above it's not that much of a gap and certainly dutch sides will esp want to beat a german club. Hannover - 3 overs in 3 league matches so far....Twente played 2 over in 3 home matches in last year group phase. Hannover 4 overs in 6 group stages last season and 5 of their 6 knockout round matches were overs losing out to a madrid. I though Dutch sides v German produced overs but looking back seems 50-50 - i might be thinking summer friendlies yield overs. In any case both sides are domestic over teams that seem to carry it on for the group stage.
Tottenham v Lazio
Lazio +0.5 +1.0 -126 -1.26 to win 1 unit
there is no reason to belive tottenham will take this seriously...just AVB will want results to prove he's worth something and taking porto to glory in the EUROPA is on his resume. I do think it is laughible that Spurs are talking about turning their season around based on a match vs Reading...AVB still yet to prove he's a EPL worthy manager. And Spurs have to be pretty pissed off to miss out on the CL and showed last year that they had little respect for this cup. Finding a way to qualify for next years CL game will be the priority. I could be way off since it is a new manager but i don't see them putting in the effort even at home. And let us not forget the crazy England v Italy stats in favour of english sides (didn't work for chelski today though) However Lazio has shown to be a very good italian side - winning all 5 matches and in good fashion. With Maribor and Panath. in the group i think both these clubs will consider tough but winnable...which could mean a couple of h2h draws. I would love to wait for lineups and morning team news but i'll be fairly busy all day so just going by the way english sides (other than birmingham) treat the EUROPA.....1/2 money back with a 1 goal spur win isn't too bad....and why would you want to cheer for the spurs anway?????
as i said no official plays and posting strickly for the guys that love action....6-1-1 last two days and god knows my overall EUROPA/UEFA Cup record is 5-189 so maybe fading all three is smart...or not playing at all. But if you were leaning with any of these maybe the post will help....
GL - it will be hard for me not to bet the Hannover over as i really like that one.
I feel a little silly posting plays when i don't bet them myself but i did look at some EUROPA tomorrow and i do like a few...might be a last second bet to cure boredom but i doubt it and certainly nowhere near my normal size bets.....i'd fade myself with europa plays but that doesn't seem to work either....
Thursday Sept 19th
EUROPA
Copenhagen v Molde
Copenhagen -0.75 -125 -1.25 to win 1 unit
i think copenhagen is a great european type team with plenty of experience..they struggled a bit in the group stage last year winning just 1 of 3 but hannover and standard were tough opponents. Cope did beat Lille at home in the CL qualifier losing at in extras in the 2nd leg. Cope are coming off a 2-1 home win vs a fairly hot and last year's winners Nordsjalland. Molde are impressive knocking out Heerenveen and almost beating Basel in the CL. They are just 4-2-5 on the road in norway and norway teams struggle against danish sides. In fact Denmark sides are W6 D1 L3 at home vs Norway sides. Much more experienced and probably a touch better home side....to me Copenhagen wins the home match and proabably loses/draws the road one.
Twente v Hannover
over 2.5, 3.0 goals -125 -1.25 to win 1 unit
hannover are coming off europa qualifiers were they beat slask 5-1 and 5-3, and they beat st patricks 3-0 on the road. Twente in their qualifiers 3-1 and 1-3 vs bursaspor. Twente 15 goals in 5 Dutch matches and although german football is a step above it's not that much of a gap and certainly dutch sides will esp want to beat a german club. Hannover - 3 overs in 3 league matches so far....Twente played 2 over in 3 home matches in last year group phase. Hannover 4 overs in 6 group stages last season and 5 of their 6 knockout round matches were overs losing out to a madrid. I though Dutch sides v German produced overs but looking back seems 50-50 - i might be thinking summer friendlies yield overs. In any case both sides are domestic over teams that seem to carry it on for the group stage.
Tottenham v Lazio
Lazio +0.5 +1.0 -126 -1.26 to win 1 unit
there is no reason to belive tottenham will take this seriously...just AVB will want results to prove he's worth something and taking porto to glory in the EUROPA is on his resume. I do think it is laughible that Spurs are talking about turning their season around based on a match vs Reading...AVB still yet to prove he's a EPL worthy manager. And Spurs have to be pretty pissed off to miss out on the CL and showed last year that they had little respect for this cup. Finding a way to qualify for next years CL game will be the priority. I could be way off since it is a new manager but i don't see them putting in the effort even at home. And let us not forget the crazy England v Italy stats in favour of english sides (didn't work for chelski today though) However Lazio has shown to be a very good italian side - winning all 5 matches and in good fashion. With Maribor and Panath. in the group i think both these clubs will consider tough but winnable...which could mean a couple of h2h draws. I would love to wait for lineups and morning team news but i'll be fairly busy all day so just going by the way english sides (other than birmingham) treat the EUROPA.....1/2 money back with a 1 goal spur win isn't too bad....and why would you want to cheer for the spurs anway?????
as i said no official plays and posting strickly for the guys that love action....6-1-1 last two days and god knows my overall EUROPA/UEFA Cup record is 5-189 so maybe fading all three is smart...or not playing at all. But if you were leaning with any of these maybe the post will help....
GL - it will be hard for me not to bet the Hannover over as i really like that one.
in the end i took a wager on the hannover over but at the 2.5 goaline....so i still like all three as well as the over in the fenerbahce match but just one official play for me.
EUROPA
Twente v Hannover
over 2.5 goals -133 -1.33 to win 1 unit
for reasons posted above....
gl
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Overall:
75-67-9 +3.31 units
September 24-24-6 -1.13 units
August 46-36-2 8.14 units
EUROPA
Twente v Hannover
over 2.5 goals -133 -1.33 to win 1 unit
for reasons posted above....
gl
-------
Overall:
75-67-9 +3.31 units
September 24-24-6 -1.13 units
August 46-36-2 8.14 units
9-2-1 in my last 12 plays before that 2-9-1 believe it or not....so nice run but like my record to date it's been a win some lose some year. .... hopefully this weekend can get the year off the 0-5 unit mark....
Overall:
76-67-9 +4.31 units
September 25-24-6 -0.13 units
August 46-36-2 8.14 units
Friday September 21st
German Bundesliga II
Aalen v Aue
under 2.5 goals -128 -1.28 to win 1 unit
aalen have two overs in two home matches but i don't think this one will be high scoring. Aalen beat a terrible road team Ingolstadt 3-0 and lost to a promotional candidate Braunschweig 0-3. Aue is a team that defends on the road and struggles to score. So far in two road matches zero goals and only 2 goals scored in 5 matches. Cottbus beat Aue 3-0 but i do think cottbus will be an over team by season end. Both clubs should think they can win this one - Aalen might have the edge being at home and Aue with a pretty poor start. A goalfest is alway possible with any two german II clubs but i think we will see a fairly tight match with little of goal scoring chances...1-0 0-1 perhaps 1-1
as for the other two matches - cologne is a shock to me as i thought they were still going to be good enough to compete in II after their relegation and selling off players like superstar best EPLer... Podolski. It should be matter of time they get results and union are just as bad this year. I think Koln pk at +136 is worth a small wager but until they get results i won't be betting them.
St Pauli is another side that had a slow start and FSV bit of a surprise start...they will probably start losing but more likely near xmas. I could see them win this one but any result is possible and no bet.
German 3 Liga
Wehen vs. Heidenheim
over 2.5 goals +103 - 0.97 to win 1 unit
i am not sure german III is available in all books but i think at plus even there is value on the over. Heidenheim 7 overs in 9 matches this year .. .2 overs in 4 road matches. The two unders for Heindenheim had 2 goals and came against two clubs that have just 3 overs in 9 matches. Wehen crazy draw run worries me as 2-2 isn't too realistic but i think heidenheim win. Wehen a 50-50 O-U club but at over 1.5 have 7 overs in 9 matches. The over 2, 2.5 goaline is probably a much wiser wager. 6 draws in 9 matches and certainly a draw here would be a good result for Wehen but promotion is on Heidenheim's mind. All three H2h matches in Wehen have been overs....1-1 HT and 1-2 1-3 FT
Denmark Superligaen
AGF v SonderjyskE
over 2.5 goals -134 -1.34 to win 1 unit
5 of the last 6 h2h in Aarhus have been overs and 5 straight Friday matches have been overs. (6 of 9 for the year). Being the only match perhaps the players try to put on a show if that match is shown throughout Denmark.....or it is just a co-incidence. 6 overs in 9 matches for AGF but just 2 overs in 5 home matches. Sonder 2 overs in 3 road matches. AGF have 14 goals in their last 6 and Sonder have given up 14....AGF is playing better right now but i am convinced they will win. Sonder could knick it in the end but most likely a 1-2 2-3 type match.
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i might take the german I or engish champ. match but going to check out the early ones first. I haven't looked at them and would hate a 1-4 0-5 type day to ruin my weekend. GL
Overall:
76-67-9 +4.31 units
September 25-24-6 -0.13 units
August 46-36-2 8.14 units
Friday September 21st
German Bundesliga II
Aalen v Aue
under 2.5 goals -128 -1.28 to win 1 unit
aalen have two overs in two home matches but i don't think this one will be high scoring. Aalen beat a terrible road team Ingolstadt 3-0 and lost to a promotional candidate Braunschweig 0-3. Aue is a team that defends on the road and struggles to score. So far in two road matches zero goals and only 2 goals scored in 5 matches. Cottbus beat Aue 3-0 but i do think cottbus will be an over team by season end. Both clubs should think they can win this one - Aalen might have the edge being at home and Aue with a pretty poor start. A goalfest is alway possible with any two german II clubs but i think we will see a fairly tight match with little of goal scoring chances...1-0 0-1 perhaps 1-1
as for the other two matches - cologne is a shock to me as i thought they were still going to be good enough to compete in II after their relegation and selling off players like superstar best EPLer... Podolski. It should be matter of time they get results and union are just as bad this year. I think Koln pk at +136 is worth a small wager but until they get results i won't be betting them.
St Pauli is another side that had a slow start and FSV bit of a surprise start...they will probably start losing but more likely near xmas. I could see them win this one but any result is possible and no bet.
German 3 Liga
Wehen vs. Heidenheim
over 2.5 goals +103 - 0.97 to win 1 unit
i am not sure german III is available in all books but i think at plus even there is value on the over. Heidenheim 7 overs in 9 matches this year .. .2 overs in 4 road matches. The two unders for Heindenheim had 2 goals and came against two clubs that have just 3 overs in 9 matches. Wehen crazy draw run worries me as 2-2 isn't too realistic but i think heidenheim win. Wehen a 50-50 O-U club but at over 1.5 have 7 overs in 9 matches. The over 2, 2.5 goaline is probably a much wiser wager. 6 draws in 9 matches and certainly a draw here would be a good result for Wehen but promotion is on Heidenheim's mind. All three H2h matches in Wehen have been overs....1-1 HT and 1-2 1-3 FT
Denmark Superligaen
AGF v SonderjyskE
over 2.5 goals -134 -1.34 to win 1 unit
5 of the last 6 h2h in Aarhus have been overs and 5 straight Friday matches have been overs. (6 of 9 for the year). Being the only match perhaps the players try to put on a show if that match is shown throughout Denmark.....or it is just a co-incidence. 6 overs in 9 matches for AGF but just 2 overs in 5 home matches. Sonder 2 overs in 3 road matches. AGF have 14 goals in their last 6 and Sonder have given up 14....AGF is playing better right now but i am convinced they will win. Sonder could knick it in the end but most likely a 1-2 2-3 type match.
----
i might take the german I or engish champ. match but going to check out the early ones first. I haven't looked at them and would hate a 1-4 0-5 type day to ruin my weekend. GL
not sure anyone is kicking around today but anyone like the over in blackburn match:? Hard not to take blackburn overs with their play and Jordon Rhodes is good for a goal. M'boro 4 overs in 6 matches this year and it is a mini-battle of the promotional hopefully. 1-1 is such a worry though and odds around -138 might be less attractive. Considering over 3 and hope for a crazy friday match. 4 out of 6 have been overs h2h in blackburn but the last two 1-1 scores and they haven't met since 2008. I'm on the fence and haven't checked team news but if the early games are going well i'm probably taking blackburn over and nurnberg straight win
i will assume german III lost but hitting the other 2 I will post 2 more plays....sorry no write up but games kickoff soon and took awhile to get that 3rd goal in the aarhus match...
England Championship
Blackburn v Middlesborough
over 3 goals +125 -0.80 to win 1 unit
German Bundesliga I
Nurnberg v Eintracht Frankfurt
Nurnberg +118 - 0.84 to win 1 unit
hopefully 1 out of 2 at least.....gl
England Championship
Blackburn v Middlesborough
over 3 goals +125 -0.80 to win 1 unit
German Bundesliga I
Nurnberg v Eintracht Frankfurt
Nurnberg +118 - 0.84 to win 1 unit
hopefully 1 out of 2 at least.....gl
Jahn Regensburg vs. Cottbus
Saturday September 22nd
German Bundesliga II
Kaiserlautern v Hertha Berlin
over 2.5 goals -117 - 1.17 to win 1 unit
usually I pass when h2h don't h elp but just one match since 2006 is kaiserlautern which ended 1-1. Had i been on that over i would have been upset it was 1-1 after 14 mins. So far both clubs have 4 overs in 5 matches - Hertha's two road matches ended 1-2 and 3-1....Kaiser 2 overs in 3 home matches and 2-1 winners to Duisburg last round. Big battle of promotion candidates and realistically both sides first test of the year. I think Hertha will like their chances here and with Braun off to a great start I think both sides will not be playing for the draw....i watch a lot of hertha matches over the years and i do like their approach to road games where they go for goals. Even though they were relegated they did score 19 goals on the road last season which was 1 behind M'gladbach. Id take a stab at hertha but i don't trust them enough...1-1 is possible but i think this one will be wide open.
Paderborn v Sandhausen
Paderborn -114 - 1.14 to win 1 unit
surprised a bit at the odds but sandhausen with a surprise start to the year. I think the fact 3 of their first 5 matches were at home plays a part in their good start. On the road they drew to Koln which is proving to be less impressive and lost to St. Pauli. Paderborn to me are top 3 material esp with their home play. Last year 9-2 with 6 draws at home. Paderborn with a slow start but drew hertha on the road and
Braun. lost was always going to be tough. The home lost to Ingolstadt was a huge surprise but matches like that will happen throughout the year. Nice bounce back game beating Aue 0-1 on the road. Most promotional sides struggle on the road - Aalen is doing well 2-0-1 but Jahn 0-3 and Sandhausen 0-1-1 so far. If Paderborn is a real promotional candidate they need to win games agianst teams like this.
Jahn Regensburg vs. Cottbus
over 2, 2.5 goals -106 -1.06 to win 1 unit
after two straight unders i jumped off the cottbus over wagon and they drew frankfurt 2-2. Cottbus appears to be playing back into their over ways that had success over the years (except last season)....Cottbus 3 wins and 2 draws so far and although at first glance they should beat Jahn I don't like betting agianst newly promoted sides early in the season. Jahn 0-3 on the road scoring 1 goal but 1-1 at home scoring 2 and giving up 1. Just 1 over in 5 matches for Jahn so Cottbus might have to do the scoring (or conceeding). The over 2.5 pays nicely but i am much more comfortable with the 2.25 line. Cottbus probably wins in the end but hopefully Jahn can score.
English Premier League
Southampton v Aston Villa
Southampton pk -134 - 1.34 to win 1 unit
Posting this early because i think odds could shift towards Soton and the pick line for me is a must bet. i think Southampton deserve a win - the schedule wasn't too kind for them playing both Manchester and Arsenal in the first 4 matches. I would take them to beat poor villa but i though Wigan were even worst and they won 2-0. Villa with a couple of recent results but they still are a fairly weak side. Perhaps Southampton don't win outright but i think at least 1 point tomorrow ... if not all 3. Hard to judge this time still because they played tough vs the two Manchesters but layed down vs Arsenal with a very poor game plan. Hopefully the players wil respond to the stupid media talk about jobs being in jeopardy...do the media look at opponents or just the fact 0 points in 4 matches? Being at home and Villa poor (lost to promotion West Ham already on the road) I like Soton to win or at least draw.
more to come tomorrow i imagine...0-3 in german II might change my mind though......gl.
Saturday September 22nd
German Bundesliga II
Kaiserlautern v Hertha Berlin
over 2.5 goals -117 - 1.17 to win 1 unit
usually I pass when h2h don't h elp but just one match since 2006 is kaiserlautern which ended 1-1. Had i been on that over i would have been upset it was 1-1 after 14 mins. So far both clubs have 4 overs in 5 matches - Hertha's two road matches ended 1-2 and 3-1....Kaiser 2 overs in 3 home matches and 2-1 winners to Duisburg last round. Big battle of promotion candidates and realistically both sides first test of the year. I think Hertha will like their chances here and with Braun off to a great start I think both sides will not be playing for the draw....i watch a lot of hertha matches over the years and i do like their approach to road games where they go for goals. Even though they were relegated they did score 19 goals on the road last season which was 1 behind M'gladbach. Id take a stab at hertha but i don't trust them enough...1-1 is possible but i think this one will be wide open.
Paderborn v Sandhausen
Paderborn -114 - 1.14 to win 1 unit
surprised a bit at the odds but sandhausen with a surprise start to the year. I think the fact 3 of their first 5 matches were at home plays a part in their good start. On the road they drew to Koln which is proving to be less impressive and lost to St. Pauli. Paderborn to me are top 3 material esp with their home play. Last year 9-2 with 6 draws at home. Paderborn with a slow start but drew hertha on the road and
Braun. lost was always going to be tough. The home lost to Ingolstadt was a huge surprise but matches like that will happen throughout the year. Nice bounce back game beating Aue 0-1 on the road. Most promotional sides struggle on the road - Aalen is doing well 2-0-1 but Jahn 0-3 and Sandhausen 0-1-1 so far. If Paderborn is a real promotional candidate they need to win games agianst teams like this.
Jahn Regensburg vs. Cottbus
over 2, 2.5 goals -106 -1.06 to win 1 unit
after two straight unders i jumped off the cottbus over wagon and they drew frankfurt 2-2. Cottbus appears to be playing back into their over ways that had success over the years (except last season)....Cottbus 3 wins and 2 draws so far and although at first glance they should beat Jahn I don't like betting agianst newly promoted sides early in the season. Jahn 0-3 on the road scoring 1 goal but 1-1 at home scoring 2 and giving up 1. Just 1 over in 5 matches for Jahn so Cottbus might have to do the scoring (or conceeding). The over 2.5 pays nicely but i am much more comfortable with the 2.25 line. Cottbus probably wins in the end but hopefully Jahn can score.
English Premier League
Southampton v Aston Villa
Southampton pk -134 - 1.34 to win 1 unit
Posting this early because i think odds could shift towards Soton and the pick line for me is a must bet. i think Southampton deserve a win - the schedule wasn't too kind for them playing both Manchester and Arsenal in the first 4 matches. I would take them to beat poor villa but i though Wigan were even worst and they won 2-0. Villa with a couple of recent results but they still are a fairly weak side. Perhaps Southampton don't win outright but i think at least 1 point tomorrow ... if not all 3. Hard to judge this time still because they played tough vs the two Manchesters but layed down vs Arsenal with a very poor game plan. Hopefully the players wil respond to the stupid media talk about jobs being in jeopardy...do the media look at opponents or just the fact 0 points in 4 matches? Being at home and Villa poor (lost to promotion West Ham already on the road) I like Soton to win or at least draw.
more to come tomorrow i imagine...0-3 in german II might change my mind though......gl.
Southampton v Aston Villa
Agree with you that the English press going after Adkins is in poor taste and nonsense. What he did for his team and how he has improved the career of many of his players and basically changed their lives for the better tells me they have great respect for him in the locker room. I think this will unite the team and that will show on the pitch today. Thats just my $0.02 on this BS and others may not agree. I looked at this match and also felt that this is a good spot for them to turn things around against Villa.
Was leaning on the under 2.5 goals, as I think this will be a closely played match with little or no goals. I think you may have a winner Dial. BOL.
Agree with you that the English press going after Adkins is in poor taste and nonsense. What he did for his team and how he has improved the career of many of his players and basically changed their lives for the better tells me they have great respect for him in the locker room. I think this will unite the team and that will show on the pitch today. Thats just my $0.02 on this BS and others may not agree. I looked at this match and also felt that this is a good spot for them to turn things around against Villa.
Was leaning on the under 2.5 goals, as I think this will be a closely played match with little or no goals. I think you may have a winner Dial. BOL.
not much to say about the cottbus game 0-1 after 4 mins and needed just 1 goal for 1/2 loser and nothing. Balls cleared at the line - some nice saves.....wow....those early road goals can kill off games a lot of the times. Jahn really did deserve a goal I thought. Once Hertha made it 1-1 you know the game was finished...no chance for a third. 1-2 in German II.
1 more bet to make it 5 and need to hit soton and this one for profit.....
EPL
West Ham v Sunderland
Sunderland pk +210 - 0.47 to win 1 unit
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dortmund -1 seems a bit too obvious for me so i didnt take it and skipping the over in the p'boro game because they might struggle to score and wolves 0-1 0-2 very possible. GL -
midweek....
1 more bet to make it 5 and need to hit soton and this one for profit.....
EPL
West Ham v Sunderland
Sunderland pk +210 - 0.47 to win 1 unit
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dortmund -1 seems a bit too obvious for me so i didnt take it and skipping the over in the p'boro game because they might struggle to score and wolves 0-1 0-2 very possible. GL -
midweek....
thank aruk - if the media would realize all the other bottom dwellers have to play man city, utd and arsenal they'd be less critical. Do they really think Wigan, West Ham etc...are going to get results? And they easily could have got points out of Man U and City but there is a reason they win and soton don't...pretty sad but i do fear Adkins will be gone soon if they don't start getting points.
thanks varkey - greed cost me again...sunder +0.5 -108 was the smart play but i went with the long shot and 3rd min of stoppage time West Ham ties it to push the bet....much deserved goal as sunderland tried to hold onto the lead the entire 2nd half ala EPL teams and cost them....thought it was a winning day but now 2-2-1....nice win for soton though..0-1 at HT.
so no goals in 86 mins and 1 goal in stoppage ruined the day...no more plays for me today. GL in football this weekend
so no goals in 86 mins and 1 goal in stoppage ruined the day...no more plays for me today. GL in football this weekend
