Costanza's Formula 1 Season 2007 Picks

[Costanza]

Pick 40: Qualif Top10 Place for Mark Webber (1 Unit) @ 1.600

Gonna take this on once again for the same reasons as last Race. Webber probably the best 1 quick lap driver of the entire field being able to qualify 5 out of the last 6 GP's in the top 10 (only once not because of technical problems) Red Bull Car has shown some speed and we are getting exactly the same odds then last GP where it turned out to be an easy winner with around 0.500 seconds ahead of 11th place at the end of the 2nd qualification part. 1.60 is available at Bwin and justifies anything above 62.5% chance of him finishing in the top 10 during the qualif session.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 41: Free Practice 1 H2H Sutil vs Albers (1.5 Units) @ 2.900

WOW ! Are they serious about this price? I'm the first to say that Sutil is the better driver between the 2, but once again the experiance factor can not be ignored here. Albers allready having done a couple hundered laps on this circuit allready gives him some edge in the early stage of the GP weekend. Sutil Got some critic from the team involving the unforced retirements due to some piloting mistakes, so Sutil will defenatly come out driving this 1st free practice without much risk and the main objective to explore the circuit and find a good balance for the car. Here also the same story during the Canada GP, Albers who was familliar with the track was around 0.400 seconds faster then Sutil after the first practice even with albers completeing 8 laps less then his team mate (17 vs 25)
Was hoping on this beïng an even money bet, so 2.900 defenatly has value in my opinion and I'm making this a 1.5 unit bet.

 

[Costanza]

The odds on previous 2 bets have allready dropped a bit (1.70 for Alonso & 2.80 for Sutil) yet again another indication of being on the right side. Both are still worth taking imo.

 

[Costanza]

US GP Free Practice Bets
Pick 39: Free Practice 1 H2H Hamilton vs Alonso (1 Unit) @ 1.750 --> WON (+0.750 units)
Pick 41: Free Practice 1 H2H Sutil vs Albers (1.5 Units) @ 2.900 --> WON (+2.850 units)

2 Big winners to start this GP weekend :thumbsup:

Alonso came out motivated as expected and was by far fastest in the 1st Practice session with a 0.700 second advantage on Hamilton

Albers came trough at the end of the session and was a little less then 0.200 seconds faster then his team mate Sutil. I will defenatly concider making a bet on Sutil in the qualif H2H if I find a valuable price.

updated record:

Picks = 38 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 25 / 11 / 2 (69,4% winners!)
Units Bet = 34.7 units
Units Return = 48.121 unit
Average Stake = 0.92 units
Profit = +13.421 Units
ROI = +38,7 %

Race 07 US GP Record: 2 - 0| +3.600 Units (+144% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

 

[Costanza]

Pick 42: Race to have NO safety Car (1 Unit) @ 2.400

There are a couple of facts that make me believe the value is on the "underdog" here. For starters, last race there were 4 safety car procedures! This fact alone has a massive influence on the odds, just like the fact that the odds on a safety car to be in the canada race were way too high because of the fact that there was no safety car in Monaco.
There is not that much data available on this race because it hasn't been around for that long. The info that I received on the Safety car over the last 6 years shows 2 out of 6 races had a safety car procedure. Without counting the non-michelin car race it's 2 out of 5. Last year there were 2 safety car procedures in 1 race, the year before was the other race with a safety car. Another fact is that the track is only partially dangerous when it comes down to cars blocking the track. Adding up last weeks crash of Kubica which made everyone remember that it's still one of the most dangerous sports. This might be another factor that reduces the way of taking risks with some drivers. Ralf Schumacher allready announced that he doesn't want to crash once again this race and Albers & Sutil got a lot of critic from their team because they made some driving errors resulting in a crash last couple races so they will defenatly have an eye on driving safely. There also haven't been many incidents so far during the 1st race day this weekend. Yet another factor that might not have very much influence is that the safety car caused a lot of problems for the race standings last race. Safety car rules involving pit stops are just insane at the moment and are in some way very unfair. (alonso / rosberg penalty last race) So in case of the race comitte has to descide to take out the safety car or leave him inside they might just lean to leaving him inside to avoid last weeks scenario where it was almost impossible to descide who was on which place. Another important factor that's important when it comes down to safety car betting is also in favor of the bet, No rain is predicted for race day! So a lot of arguments that reduce the chance of the safety car to come on the track and I feel this is around a coin flip 50/50 situation, so the 2.40 odds that Nordicbet are offering are well worth the risk in my opinion.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 43: Qualif Winner = Alonso + No Bet if it's Hamilton (1 Unit) @ 1.974

Exactly the same bet as last week, only at reduced odds which still offer value in my opinion. Mclaren is without much doubt the fastest car at the moment and they have 2 of the best drivers of the field. I would really be surprised if another car would be able to drive the fastest lap during qualif later today. I still favor alonso who dominated the sessions so far and has something to prove. Still I don't rule out Hamilton so I'm taking him as backup once again.
0.71 units on alonso to take the pole @ 2.78
0.29 units on Hamilton to take the pole @ 3.45
odds available at betfair !

 

[Costanza]

US GP Qualification Bets
Pick 40: Qualif Top10 Place for Mark Webber (1 Unit) @ 1.600 --> WON (+0.600 units)
Pick 43: Qualif Winner = Alonso + No Bet if it's Hamilton (1 Unit) @ 1.974 --> PUSH (+0.00 units)

updated record:

Picks = 40 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 26 / 11 / 3 (70,3% winners!!)
Units Bet = 36.7 units
Units Return = 50.721 unit
Average Stake = 0.92 units
Profit = +14.021 Units
ROI = +38,2 %

Race 07 US GP Record: 3 - 0| +4.200 Units (+93% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

 

[chriscol]

hi constanza. thx for sharing the picks..anything for the race??

lookking at pinni's odd are fin it strange that they have

Hamilton to win @ 1.86
Alonso to win @ 2.48

Matchup: Hamilton (1.84) vs. Alonso (2.04)

As hamilton has in both ways basically the same odds, they are saying if he beats alonso in the matchup he wins the race. but they are saying if alonso beats hamilton in matchup it s much more like than winning the race at the same time? dont understand that.

i believe hamilton will win, but at least Mercedes will win.

 

[Costanza]

There are 3 pending bets for the race to be found above.

I always try to stay away as much as possible from outright bets since it's a technical sport and so many things can go wrong. taking that matchup instead of the outright win for 0.02 less is a no brainer.

Be carefull though, it is quite possible that Alonso can overtake Hamilton in the first corner after the start. you should check out the always interesting write-ups at this blog(f1punter.wordpress.com) and read some of the facts on a possible overtaking action from Alonso in the 1st corner.

Good luck for the Race !

 

[Costanza]

US Grand Prix Bets
Pick 37: Race H2H Wurz vs Rosberg (1 Unit) @ 1.600 --> LOST (- 1.000 units)
Pick 38: Race Top 8 Finish for Kubica (or replacement) (1 Unit) @ 1.90 --> WON (+0.900 units)
Pick 42: Race to have NO safety Car (1 Unit) @ 2.400 --> WON (+1.400 units)

Rosberg's retirement in 6th place 4 laps before the end of the GP actually did me a favor winning a bet with higer odds on Vettel finishing 8th. There was never any danger for the safety car to come out during the race.
Defentaly one of the more profitable GP weekends so far !

updated record:

Picks = 43 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 28 / 12 / 3 (70% winners!!)
Units Bet = 39.7 units
Units Return = 55.021 unit
Average Stake = 0.93 units
Profit = +15.321 Units
ROI = +38,6 %

Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

I will be back with more Formula 1 bets in 2 weeks for the France Grand Prix!

 

[RobFunk]

Costanza, nice work!

 

[Costanza]

Thanks RobFunk,

It's going to very difficult to keep things going as they do now though,
+20 units profit is my aim for the season. The Lines will get tighter but still feel confident that there will be enough value to take.

 

[RobFunk]

Costanza, You think this could be Alonzo's week?

Really, the only reason he lost those those two is he makes those ticky-tack errors.

But Hamiltion, he drives so damn perfect.

 

[Costanza]

Hamilton and Alonso are really close at the moment. Hamilton being perfect in the last 2 races on tracks where he did not have experiance on is really impressive. Knowing he allready has experiance on the Magny Cours Circuit makes does not make things easyer for Alonso. Both should be close again and I don't think think the odds have much value.

I've been looking over the odds and they are defenatly getting tighter. Gonna take a closer look into some statistics and weater predictions today before pulling the trigger.

 

[Costanza]

For what I know, they are predicting a 30% chance of rain during the entire weekend. Since this is a factor that has a huge influence, I'm going to wait before making any bets for now.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 44: Race Top 8 Finish for Rosberg (-1/2 in case of retirement) (1 Unit) @ 1.973

Nico Rosberg is in my opinion still an underrated driver. He has shown a great form so far the entire year and I really favor him to get points in this French Grand Prix. Last 2 races he should have finished inside the points without any problems but due to some very unfortunate events he didn't. In the US he had to retire 4 laps before the end of the race because of an extremely small part of his car that caused some techincal problems. At that point he was in 6st place starting from 14th place on the grid with a rare 1 pit stop startegy. In the Canada GP he also had a great position after getting screwed by the safety car pit stop incident which made him get a penalty which resulted in him dropping way back. This race weekend he allready showed a good form in the Free Practice sessions and he was very satisfied with his Williams car. So I really believe that Rosberg will put up another good performance this weekend. Stan James is once again offering a bet on "the best of the rest" without ferrari/mclaren/BMW on Rosberg @ 5.00 odds which looks very tempting to take. I really believe that Rosberg will take points in this race in case nothing unfortunate happens. Also with the rain predictions I'm a bit more carefull so I'm taking:

0.858 units on Rosberg to Finish in the Top 8 @ 2.30 (Bwin)
0.142 units on Rosberg to Retire @ 3.50 (Bet365)

Which makes it a 1 unit bet on him to finish in the points with a return of 1/2 stake in case he's not able to complete 90% of the race @ around 1.973 !

 

[Costanza]

Pick 45: Qualif H2H Sutil+Trulli vs Albers+R.Schumacher (1.50 Units) @ 2.10

Once again WOW !! where can I start here, this one really looks like extremly overpriced odds. To start with the Sutil vs Albers H2H, I allready stated in previous bets that Sutil defenatly has an edge when it comes down to driving 1 fast lap. The Spyker team did not do very good during the 1st race day. Sutil wasn't really that happy with the car and couldn't find a very good balance. Albers damaged his car by hitting the curves and couldn't complete the 2nd practice session. So far in H2H confrontations it's 7 - 1 in favor of Sutil who always was at least a couple 10th of seconds faster even on circuits where he didn't have much experiance. Looking at last years qualif, Albers was faster then his team mate Monteiro in France in a season where he very regulary was able to beat his team mate. I just don't see many reasons why Sutil would not be able to beat Albers once again. In case it would be a rainy session it would also be no problem because Sutil is known to be one of the better driver in wet racing concitions.

On to the Jarno Trulli vs Ralf Schumacher H2H. This one is simple, Trulli is along with Webber one of the best 1 fast Lap drivers in the entire field. He is almost always able to qualify inside the top 10 and has got a perfect 7 - 0 / 100% sweep H2H record so far against his team mate this year ! Looking at his qualification results over the last few years it is obvious he's very much capable on the Magny Cours Circuit with a 4th / 2nd / 5th / 6th place on the grid in the last 4 years. During the 1st practice day there is not much remarkable news from the Toyota team. They were able to test some setups and tyres. Even tough Ralf was faster then Trulli in a typical low ranked toyota practice session I don't see many reasons to believe that Ralf will beat him when it comes down to the real qualif.

Both bets are available @ 1.45 at Interwetten who are offering way better odds the all other Bookies. It gives combined odds of 2.102 which offers quite some extra value compared to most other bookmakers where it's available @ 1.90 or less. When I first saw these odds I wanted to go crazy on it, but since it stays a technical sport where many things can go wrong I'm going to stick with a strong 1.5 unit selection.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 46: Qualif H2H Webber vs Fisichella (No Bet if Web in top 10 behind fisico) (1 Unit) @ 1.967

It's getting late so I'm going to try to keep it short here.
Webber + Qualif has been a good combination, he once again had gearbox problems during practice and wasn't able to complete all his laps which resulted in a 16th place. Coultard in the other RBR car showed that it's got a lot of potentian for this race and I see Webber once again making the top 10 during Qualif. Something he has been doing very concistantly the entire season. Renault had no problems during the practice but weren't really able to clock competative times which doesn't really mean that much but might give some kind of indication. H2H so far between Webber and Fisico is 4 - 3 in favor of Fisico. 1 time Webber had technical problems, but the others were all really close between the 2. Last 2 races the Red Bull car was quite good and able to get the best of it. I'm seeing this matchup between the 2 as a 50/50 coinflip so the 2.310 odds at pinnacle offer some value. In case Webber finishes ahead he'll defenatly be within the top 10, in case he is behind there is still a good chance of him finishing in the top 10 knowing he's got a 6-1 record this year when it comes down to this.

So the best value is to be found betting
0.581 Units on Webber to Reach Qualif session 3 @ 1.72 (Bet365)
0.419 Units on Webber vs Fisichella qualif H2H @ 2.310 (Pinnacle)

Making it 1 unit on Webber finishing ahead of Fisico with a No bet if he's behind but still in the top 10 @ 1.967! I will take the seperate bets in case he finishes ahead outside the top10 which is not very likely to happen

 

[Costanza]

Fench GP Qualif Bets
Pick 45: Qualif H2H Sutil+Trulli vs Albers+R.Schumacher (1.50 Units) @ 2.10 --> LOST (- 1.5 units)
Pick 46: Qualif H2H Webber vs Fisichella (No Bet if Web in top 10 behind fisico) (1 Unit) @ 1.967 --> LOST (- 1 unit)

Not a very lucky Qualif session.
Sutil having technical problems failed to finish his last quick lap that should have placed him above his team mate. Webber and Red Bull Racing were an overall dissapointment.
Rosberg in 6th is looking very good to finish inside the points though

updated record:

Picks = 45 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 28 / 14 / 3 (66,6% winners!!)
Units Bet = 42.2 units
Units Return = 55.021 unit
Average Stake = 0.94 units
Profit = +12.821 Units
ROI = +30,4 %

Race 08 French GP Record: 0 - 2| - 2.500 Units (-100% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)

Might have more in case something interesting is available

 

[Leviathan]

Great work with your thread Costanza.

I was thinking about betting Hamilton not to win the race 1.52, not pulled the trigger yet. Ferraris had been pretty poor starters so the biggest risk is that Hamilton gets the lead at the start but McLaren has had technical problems this weekend and this court is better for Ferrari?, so I think if Hamilton stays behind at the start he stays behind during the whole race. What is your opinion about this?

Good luck for your games.