Costanza's Formula 1 Season 2007 Picks

Costanza · Jun 5, 2007

Pick 27: Safety Car During the Race? YES (1 Unit) @ 1.800

The safety car did not have to come out during the GP of Monaco 2 weeks ago, which makes the bookmakers offer just a little bit more for this race. Montreal is a Street Circuit with a lot of close boarders and not very much space which makes it very easy for cars to block the circuit. All this makes it very probable for the safety car having to come out during the race. Looking at the statistics over the last 9 years, it's the circuit with the most safety car procedures of all ! 66,6 % of the races had at least 1 Safety car (6 out of 9). All together there were 12 Safety car appearances in those 9 races, with 3 times during a first lap of the race.
Just by looking at these facts it's defenatly worth backing at the 1.80 price that skybet is offering us. This would offer us even money if there was a 55,5% chance of happening. Chances are obvious quite a bit higher.

Costanza · Jun 8, 2007

once again, Pinnacle is keeping their qualif and Race Matchups online during the Practice sessions. Ferrari and BMW are expected to come out strong this weekend and if there are some striking results during the first test session, I might take something.

Costanza · Jun 8, 2007

Pick 28: Qualif: Alonso to take the pole (no bet if Hamilton takes the pole) (1 Unit) @ 2.957

Ferrari was expected to come out strong on the Montreal Circuit after they were dominated by Mclaren during the Monaco GP. The 1st practice session allready gave some indication this is not the case and I honestly believe Mclaren have overcome the gap between the cars since the start of the season. Alonso is starting the find his turn in the team after all the hype around his team mate Hamilton at the start of the season and I really favor him to take the pole again for this race. Hamilton was also impressive knowing he didn't have any experiance on this circuit so I'm taking him as a backup.

current prices offered on Betfair are overpriced.
0.821 units on Alonso to take the Pole @ 3.6
0.179 units on Hamilton to take the Pole @ 5.6

makes it 1 unit on Alonso to take the pole and a return of the wager if Hamilton takes the pole @ 2.957

Costanza · Jun 8, 2007

Pick 29: Race H2H Trulli vs Rosberg (1 Unit) @ 1.935

Just done watching the free practice session and Toyata seems to be in a world of trouble. The suspension does not seem to hold on the Montreal Circuit where it's very important to take a lot of curves to be quick. So it's a very good price pinnacle is still offering on Rosberg who has had a very solid season so far to finish ahead of Trulli during the race.

Costanza · Jun 8, 2007

Pick 30: Qualif H2H Kubica vs Heidfeld (1 Unit) @ 1.600

BMW was expected to be strong in Montreal but they had quite some problems during the 1st practice day. Kubica had technical problems and also made a spin. He did not manage to get very much work done on the car setup. Heidfeld did better and ended on his usual 5th place even though the car did not react the way he wanted. I don't see any other result then Heidfeld qualifying ahead of his team mate. Kubica has been dominated by Heidfeld all season long, has less experiance on the circuit and had more problems during the always important test sessions. If things go their usual way, Heidfeld should be able to qualify just behind the mclarens and the ferrari's. The 1.60 odds that Unibet are offering are generous and represent a 62.5% chance of Heidfeld qualifying ahead of Kubica. I see the number more around 78% which offers a nice value.

Costanza · Jun 9, 2007

Pick 30: Qualif Top 10 Place for Mark Webber (1 Unit) @ 1.600

Mark webber is one of the best drivers in the field when it comes down to driving 1 fast lap. In 4 of the 5 grand Prix so far he managed to qualify in the top 10. Only once missing it because of some techical problems. The Red Bull has improved a lot and has shown to be able to be very competitive with the best of the rest. The first parctice session went without any problems and things are looking good for Red Bull Racing. If he can stay out of trouble, he should have no problem getting once again a top 10 place on the grid. Bwin is offering 1.60 odds which are worth taking in my opinion.

Costanza · Jun 9, 2007

Pick 32: Qualif H2H Rosberg/Fisichella over Wurz/Kovalainen (1 Unit) @ 1.570

These 2 matchups should be easy winners without a sweat. Rosberg has dominated Wurz the entire season and there is no doubt that he's the better driver and he should end up way in front of his team mate once again (1.25 odds). Fisichella is feeling good in Montreal and he has proven over the last couple grand prix races that he can handle rookie Kovalainen who has been a huge dissapointment for me this year so far. Kovalainen did not do very good during the practice session crashing his car into the wall. He has not got any experiance on the circuit and missed out on a lot of testing laps. Can't see any other result than Fisico ending in front of him again at the end of the qualif session. (1.25 odds)
odds are available on Nordicbet and are 1.56 combined. If both Rosberg and Fisico can stay out of trouble this should be a winner.

Costanza · Jun 9, 2007

Pick 33: Qualif H2H Sutil vs Albers (1 Unit) @ 1.751

Sutil has made a remarkable progress during the test sessions on a circuit where he has less experiance that his team mate Albers. I believe that Sutil is the better driver of the 2 and put my thrust im him qualifying in a better position than Albers. H2h statistics so far this year in qualif is 4 - 1 in favor of Sutil. He was behind on Albers in the 1st 2 sessions so the bookmakers have the price a bit wrong. Last practice session sutil was way ahead of his team mate and the 1.751 price is still online at pinnacle.

Costanza · Jun 9, 2007

Pick 34: Race Kovalainen classified in the race -> NO (0.5 Units) @ 3.20

Kovalainen is having a very bad weekend, allready crashing twice and starting from last position after getting a 10 place penalty. Things do not look good and his confidence level will be as low as can be with a lot of rumours of Piquet possibly taking his place. He will really have to push things during the GP to be able to get points which is allmost impossible at this moment. It will be a long and hard GP starting from last with a lot higer risk of a collision on a circuit where small errors are fatal. The average number of retirements in the Canada GP are rather high and I would not be surprised if Kova made another rookie mistake during tomorrows race. With many other things that can go wrong the 3.20 odds are defenatly worth risking (Bwin)

Costanza · Jun 9, 2007

Canada Qualif betting results:
Pick 28: Qualif: Alonso to take the pole (No Bet if Hamilton takes the pole) (1 Unit) @ 2.957 --> PUSH (+0.00 units)
Pick 30: Qualif H2H Kubica vs Heidfeld (1 Unit) @ 1.600 --> WON (+0.600 units)
Pick 31: Qualif Top 10 Place for Mark Webber (1 Unit) @ 1.600 --> WON (+0.600 units)
Pick 32: Qualif H2H Rosberg/Fisichella over Wurz/Kovalainen (1 Unit) @ 1.570 --> WON (+0.570 units)
Pick 33: Qualif H2H Sutil vs Albers (1 Unit) @ 1.751 --> WON (+0.751 units)

Allmost a perfect 5 - 0 sweep on the qualif Bets, good thing I took the backup on Hamilton for the Pole.
Heidfeld, Rosberg, Fisichella and Sutil all way ahead of their team mates
Webber qualified solid in 6th Place

updated record:

Picks = 31
Won / No Bet / Lost = 20 / 2 / 9 (69% winners!)
Units Bet = 28.2 units
Units Return = 36.736 unit
Average Stake = 0.90 units
Profit = +8.536 Units
ROI = +30,2 %

Race 06 Canada GP Record: 4 - 0| +2.521 Units (+50% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

Costanza · Jun 9, 2007

Canada Race Bets:
Pick 27: Safety Car During the Race? YES (1 Unit) @ 1.800
Pick 29: Race H2H Trulli vs Rosberg (1 Unit) @ 1.935
Pick 34: Race Kovalainen classified in the race -> NO (0.5 Units) @ 3.20

3 bets so far for the race, still looking into some things hoping to find another bet that's worth taking.

Costanza · Jun 9, 2007

Pick 35: Race H2H Takuma Sato vs Anthony Davidson (1 Unit) @ 1.55

Takuma Sato has put up a nice performance qualifying in 11th place starting 6 places in front of his team mate Davidson. His lap time was a bit less then 1 second better and he's obvious the faster driver of the 2. So far this year, sato is leading the H2H with 4-1. The only time he lost it was when both Super Aguri's retired. Montreal is a circuit which requires a lot of physical effort of the drivers taking a lot of curve and working hard to get the car good on the track. The stronger and bigger drivers have quite some advantage in this spot. Davidson is the shortest pilot of the field with only 1.65M and 56kg which makes this track extra difficult for him. The Super aguri has proven to be a reliable car and the only thing I see getting in the way of winning this bet is some kind of collision. Since Davidson has at least as much chance of retiring, so the 1.55 odds expect are offering are worth taking.

Costanza · Jun 10, 2007

Pick 36: Race Best of the Rest = Rosberg + No Bet if Webber (0.5 Units) @ 3.846

I usually don't take more then 1 bet involving the same driver, but I just can't pass on these odds. Stan James is offering a bet on the driver to end best without counting the 3 biggest teams (Ferrari/Mclaren/BMW)
Fisichella is made huge favorite dispite only starting from 9th position.
Webber starting from 6th (@4.33) and Rosberg from 7th (@5.00) are in my opinion quite a bit overpriced and I will put a small wager on both.

With all the new rules over the last couple years, As a fan, I'm sad to see the always interesting Pit Stop strategies dissapear. Having drivers on a 1stop startegy and others on a 2 stop strategy used to make thing much more interesting. Now the teams have to use both tyre types during the race and allmost everyone is using the same strategy. The only difference is that some pilots have fuel for just a couple more laps. So the starting grid position is very important these days ensure a good result.

Webber in 6th is as told one, if not the best qualif driver in the field. So far he hasn't been able to do well during the races mainly because of some technical problems with the car. Still he should not be underestimated and I take him as backup to win the best of the rest battle.

Rosberg has had a solid season, he is starting from 7th on the clean side of the track. If no unfortunate events happen, he should be able to stay around that place after the start. It will not be easy for fisichella to get in front of him if this happens. 3.846 is a big price and defenatly worth taking. only half a unit because I allready have him in a H2H against Trulli @ 1.935 which dropped to 1.645.

that should be it for this race

Costanza · Jun 10, 2007

Canada Grand Prix Bets
Pick 27: Race Safety Car During the Race? YES (1 Unit) @ 1.800 --> WON (+0.800 units)
Pick 28: Qualif Alonso to take the pole (No Bet if Hamilton takes the pole) (1 Unit) @ 2.957 --> PUSH (+0.00 units)
Pick 29: Race H2H Trulli vs Rosberg (1 Unit) @ 1.935 --> WON (+0.935 units)
Pick 30: Qualif H2H Kubica vs Heidfeld (1 Unit) @ 1.600 --> WON (+0.600 units)
Pick 31: Qualif Top 10 Place for Mark Webber (1 Unit) @ 1.600 --> WON (+0.600 units)
Pick 32: Qualif H2H Rosberg/Fisichella over Wurz/Kovalainen (1 Unit) @ 1.570 --> WON (+0.570 units)
Pick 33: Qualif H2H Sutil vs Albers (1 Unit) @ 1.751 --> WON (+0.751 units)
Pick 34: Race Kovalainen classified in the race -> NO (0.5 Units) @ 3.20 --> LOST (- 0.500 units)
Pick 35: Race H2H Takuma Sato vs Anthony Davidson (1 Unit) @ 1.55 --> WON (+0.550 units)
Pick 36: Race Best of the Rest = Rosberg + No Bet if Webber (0.5 Units) @ 3.846 --> LOST (- 0.500 units)

Very strange and spectacular race with 4 safety car procedures, didn't keep in mind that the safety car rules are completely insane at the moment. Rosberg was in great position but got a penalty without really having much choice. Kubica had a terrible accident that reminded of 1994, I'm glad to hear he only broke his leg because things really looked ugly there. Learned a lot and still made over a unit profit during the race =)

updated record:

Picks = 36 Won / No Bet / Lost = 23 / 2 / 11 (67,6% winners!)
Units Bet = 32.2 units
Units Return = 42.021 unit
Average Stake = 0.90 units
Profit = +9.821 Units
ROI = +30,5 %

Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

I'm allready looking forward to next weeks US GP, got some strong ideas allready and will probably try to get the early odds if they have value.

Costanza · Jun 11, 2007

US Grand Prix in indianapolis is comming up next week and the early odds are being put online just now which gives an nice opportunity to get some great value.

Pick 27: Race H2H Wurz vs Rosberg (1 Unit) @ 1.600

Wurz finishing 3th in one of the strangest grand prix races I have ever seen where the spyker cars coule have even ended in the top 6 clearly has a big influence on the linemakers. Picking Rosberg in this spot is a No Brainer and I defenalty see him having way more then 62.5% chance of ending in font of his team mate. I'm confident to say that only the 'luck' factor can lose this wager. The difference between these 2 drivers has been huge so far this year and the odds will probably go down quite a bit so I'm taking this on early.

RobFunk · Jun 12, 2007

Hamilton is awesome. Hes like all we are going to be hearing about for the next 10 years.

Mclaren is so tuned in. I really am a bit upset Ferrari wasnt more competitive (I am a big Ferrari fan) but it wasnt meant to be.

Kimi sucks.

4 saftey cars, but that had to have been one of the more exciting races in some time.

Costanza · Jun 12, 2007

It bothers me that Kimi doesn't seem to live for his sport that much anymore. Quote from him "I can't do more then do my best". If schumacher was still a driver, he would move heaven and earth to close this gap with the mclarens. I really think they will have a difficult season.

RobFunk · Jun 12, 2007

Costanza said:
It bothers me that Kimi doesn't seem to live for his sport that much anymore. Quote from him "I can't do more then do my best". If schumacher was still a driver, he would move heaven and earth to close this gap with the mclarens. I really think they will have a difficult season.

Yes. I believe you are spot on. Think it was a bit of a mistake to force Schumacher out like that. And maybe put a bit too much stock in Raikkonen's ability.

Was pretty nice to see BMW pick up 2nd. But if Ferrari is going to run behind BMW for the rest of the season, they have big problems.

Costanza · Jun 12, 2007

Pick 38: Race Top 8 Finish for Kubica (or replacement) (1 Unit) @ 1.900

Just a bit overpriced this one, Formula 1 is still a +90% technical sport and the difference between the top 3 teams (Ferrari/Mclaren/BMW) should not be underestimated. BMW even able to beat the Ferrari last weekend should come out strong again in Indianapolis, another circuit that should suit them. Kubica had a terrible crash last sunday but got out ok and should be back driving the car this race. The BMW should be able to get a top 8 place if nothing unexpected happens. 1.90 odds at bet365 are rather generous in my opinion.

Costanza · Jun 13, 2007

Pick 39: Free Practice 1 H2H Hamilton vs Alonso (1 Unit) @ 1.750

So Alonso had a really bad race last weekend in Canada with quite some mistakes (4) in the 1st corner, an unfortunate 10 second penalty and on top Sato who was able to overtake him at the end of the race. He allready stated that he is planning on taking revenge in the US Grand Prix this weekend. I am normally very carefull when it comes down to free practice sessions but some facts just can't be ignored here. Alonso made his Formula 1 Debut in 2001 which gives him quite some years experiance on the circuit of Indianapolis. Hamilton has no real-life experiance on the track (only from simulation) which gives him a huge dissadvantge compared to his team mate and this is something that should not be ignored. Same story for last GP where Alonso was 0.220 seconds faster then his team mate in the 1st practce which is only by the number a lot in formula 1.
I really don't see Hamilton beating Alonso in this spot given the motivation/experiance factor in favor of Alonso. 1.75 is very generous by Bwin and defenatly worth taking.