Cnotes NL 2024-2025 Schedule, Best Bets, Opinons, News !

[Udog]

NFL
Week 4

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Trend Report
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Dallas vs NY Giants
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games

LA Rams vs Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
LA Rams is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Minnesota vs Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games on the road
Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Jacksonville vs Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Houston is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Jacksonville

New Orleans vs Atlanta
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games

Cincinnati vs Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Carolina's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Carolina's last 14 games

Pittsburgh vs Indianapolis
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games at home

Denver vs NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Denver's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Jets's last 8 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Jets's last 12 games at home

Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home

Washington vs Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Washington

New England vs San Francisco
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 8 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home

Kansas City vs LA Chargers
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games at home

Cleveland vs Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Cleveland's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games at home

Buffalo vs Baltimore
Buffalo is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Buffalo

Tennessee vs Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tennessee's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tennessee's last 15 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games at home

Seattle vs Detroit
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games


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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 4

Thursday’s game
Cowboys (-4.5) @ Giants
Cowboys (1-2)
Cowboys lost their last two games, giving up 44-28 points.
Cowboys were outrushed 464-119 in those games.
Last three years, Dallas is 11-4 ATS coming off a loss.
Team total: over 3-0
Opponents’ team totalver 2-1

Last 3+ years, Dallas is 11-4 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Prescott is 76-48 as an NFL starter.
Last three years, Dallas is 6-3 ATS in NFC East road games.
Last two games, Cowboys allowed 14.2/12.1 yards/pass attempt.
Over is 3-0 in Dallas games this season.

Giants (1-2)
Giants scored six TD’s on 19 drives while splitting last two games.
Giants gave up two TD’s, 7 FG’s on opponents’ last 20 drives.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1

Giants have been outscored 34-9 in second half of games.
Under Daboll, Giants are 8-5-1 ATS coming off a win.
Since 2018, Giants are 7-11 ATS in NFC East home games.
QB Jones is 24-39-1 as an NFL starter.
Opponents are only 14-38 on third down.

Dallas won seven in row, 13 of last 14 series games.
Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in last seven visits to the Garden State
Under is 4-0 in last four meetings played here.

 

[ozzy44]

Best NFL Week 4 betting trends​

The trend: The Cowboys are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite.​

The trend: Pittsburgh games have an average combined score of just 25.6 points this season.

The trend: The Vikings have gone Under the first half total in 15 of 20 games since the start of last season.

The trend: The Broncos have covered the first quarter spread in 17 of their last 22 games.

The trend: The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after a loss.

The trend: The Saints have gone Under in 18 of their last 24 divisional matchups.

The trend: The Bears have gone Under in 10 of their last 13 games.

The trend: The Eagles are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games in the first half.

The trend: The Bengals have gone Over in seven of their last nine games.

The trend: The 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games

The trend: The Commanders have allowed at least 28 points in nine of their last 12 road games.

The trend: The Chiefs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.

The trend: The Raiders have gone Under their team total in 14 of 20 games since the start of last season.

The trend: Buffalo has gone Over its team total in all three games to open the season

The trend: The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last six games and have gone Under in five straight.

The trend: These teams have combined for 68, 93, and 80 points in their last three games against each other , SEA@DET

 

[ozzy44]

Top NFL Things To Know​

Dog Eat Dog​

Historic Start
Underdogs of 7+ points start the season 4-0 SU — the first time dogs of 7+ are above .500 SU through three weeks since 1956.

Raiders (+9) over Ravens
Patriots (+8) over Bengals
Bucs (+7.5) over Lions
Commanders (+7.5) over Bengals

For the first time in over 70 years, the biggest underdog in each of the 1st 3 weeks all won outright.

Wk 3: Commanders (+7.5) over CIN
Wk 2: Raiders (+9) over BAL
Wk 1: Patriots (+8) over CIN

NFL underdogs of 6+ points are now 8-5 SU and 12-1 ATS through three weeks — covering the spread by 9.3 PPG. The best start ATS for "big dogs" in history.

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Tough Start​

Fade Has Worked
The betting public (51%+ of tickets) is 17-30-1 ATS this season, with a $100 bettor down $1,453 – the 2nd-worst start for the betting public through two weeks since 2003 (ahead of just 2018).

Public by week:
+ Week 3: 6-10 ATS
+ Week 2: 5-10-1 ATS
+ Week 1: 6-10 ATS

Looking overall at how the public fared ATS in the NFL last year, they went 139-115-9 ATS, with a $100 bettor up $1,063 — the best single regular season for the public in the Bet Labs database dating back to 2003.

We already have five teams 0-2 ATS this year when listed as a public side: SF, LAR, LV, HOU, CIN

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Perfectly Flawed​

Undefeated Dogs
We have three 3-0 teams in Week 4 all listed as underdogs: Seahawks, Bills, Vikings

3-0 SU teams who are listed as underdogs in their 4th game have struggled lately, going 2-9 SU, 3-7-1 ATS last decade, including 6-19 SU, 9-15-1 ATS last 20 years.

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La La Land​

Rams Off Emotional Win
Rams are coming off a massive comeback vs. 49ers last week. Their 14-point comeback was their largest since Week 2, 2012 vs Washington, breaking a 59-game losing streak when down 14. In that Week 2 game in 2012, Sean McVay was Washington’s TE coach and Kyle Shanahan was their offensive coordinator.

Rams became the 4th team this season to overcome a 14-pt deficit – Bills, Bears and Dolphins in Week 1.

Teams coming off a 14+ pt comeback in their previous game are 51-68 SU (43%) and 49-70-1 ATS (41.2%), including 70-49-1 (59%) to the under in their next game since 2016.

When that team came back from 14+ down, they are 24-49 SU, 30-44 ATS when playing on the road in their next game over the last decade.

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Double Trouble​

10 Is Key
We've yet to see a double-digit favorite in 2024 — the latest in a season in history with a 10+ pt line. The 49ers in Week 4 vs. Patriots look like the cure.

The Patriots haven’t closed as a double-digit underdog in September since Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning in 2001.

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Rest Up​

Bye On The Horizon
Eagles, Chargers, Titans and Lions are all about to play games with some extra rest (12+ days) on the horizon, with their opponent not in the same spot.

Since 2016, teams with rest on the horizon are 58% SU and 59% ATS in an over 200-game sample size.

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De Vile​

Bet The Bad
Jaguars had the worst loss of Week 3, losing by 37 pts to the Bills. In the last 20 years, teams that lose by 30+ pts and are underdogs of 4 pts or more in their next game are 89-50-3 ATS (64%).

Teams to lose by 35+ pts, are 76-47-6 ATS (62%) in their next game. When those teams are +4 or higher in their next game, they are 50-19-2 ATS (73%).

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
NFL QB’s with most passing yards:
851— Dak Prescott, Dal
842— Brock Purdy, SF
787— Geno Smith, Sea
772— Jalen Hurts, Phil
754— Matthew Stafford, Rams
747— Gardner Minshew, LV

Quote of the Day
“This was one of the easiest [consignments] ever. Ohtani [hits #50] on Thursday, literally Friday we heard from the guy, he contacted Goldin on his own through social media, flew a security guard down to Miami on Monday with a representative from Goldin, met him, flew back Monday.”
Ken Goldin, founder and CEO of Goldin; bidding for Ohtani’s 50th home run baseball is going to start Friday at $500,000.

Thursday’s quiz
50 years ago, Oakland A’s won their third straight World Series; who was their manager that year?

Wednesday’s quiz
Of all the active players in the major leagues, Marcus Semien has played the most games in the Oakland Coliseum.

Tuesday’s quiz
Troy Aikman played college football for Oklahoma, UCLA.

******************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….​

— Last week of baseball’s regular season, teams jockeying for position, but hideous weather in Atlanta caused MLB to postpone Wednesday/Thursday Mets-Braves games to a Monday doubleheader. Mets go to Milwaukee this weekend; the Braves host Kansas City.
The tropical storm pounding Georgia could bring 6-12 inches of rain, with lot of flooding; it figures to cost the Braves a bunch of $$$- the doubleheader Monday won’t be played unless it impacts the Wild Card race.
Whoever gets the Wild Card spot has to play Game 1 of the Wild Card round Tuesday, probably in San Diego, making it even more of a logistical mess.

— Braves’ P Chris Sale splits this season:
Home: 10-0, 2.28 in 14 starts
Away: 8-3, 2.48 in 15 starts
Will the Braves use Sale this weekend, or wait until Monday’s doubleheader?

— 50 years ago, Dodger pitcher Tommy John had this innovative surgery on his left elbow: he was 31 years old, had just gone 16-7/13-3 the previous two years, helping the Dodgers win the NL in 1974 (they lost the World Series to the A’s)
Tommy John didn’t pitch in 1975 because of the surgery, but he came back in 1976, and then he pitched for another 14 years!!! They named the surgery “Tommy John surgery” and since then, 1,247 major leaguers have had that surgery.
Second person to have Tommy John Surgery was Brent Strom, currently pitching coach for Arizona Diamondbacks.

— Pirates’ 1B Rowdy Tellez had a contract with performance incentives; as we speak, Tellez has 421 plate appearances. If he got to 425 PA’s, another $200,000 in his contract would’ve kicked in, but Pittsburgh cut him this week, saving the extra $200,000 expense.
Tellez only hit .243 this year, but he hit .310 from June 1st on; it is a bad look for a team that has had six straight losing seasons, hasn’t made the playoffs since 2015.

— Major League Baseball doesn’t market its sport very well; they’re arrogant people who assume that baseball is still our national pastime (it isn’t). For years, MLB relied on movies to promote the sport; it is time for them to do it themselves.
I have some ideas that would help MLB show people, especially young people, that baseball is a great game, because it is. Sometimes I wonder if Commissioner Manfred believes that

1) MLB needs a Hard Knocks-type show, let people take a look behind the curtain at how teams are run. It would be fascinating:
Spring training
Cutting rosters
Home Run Derby/All-Star game
Hall of Fame inductions
Trade deadline stuff would be exceptional
Take a hard look at how the cheap teams do business.
Lot of opportunities for great TV and excellent exposure for the sport.

2) End TV blackouts; I spend a decent chunk of change every year on the MLB package on YouTube TV, but I can’t watch the New York teams live— have to wait until 90 minutes after the games end. It is nonsensical.
Why is this a good idea? Expose the game to as many people as possible.

3) ESPN or FS1 should run a big-money fantasy baseball league, with famous people owning some of the teams, fantasy experts owning some of the others. The draft would be tremendous; this would create a lot of interest during spring— have the draft early in a week, on two nights when the NCAA basketball tournament isn’t being played.
Imagine Kevin Costner owning a team? Joan Jett? Ludacris? Alex Rodriguez?
It would be very popular.

— Famous birthdays, September 26th:
Kent McCord, 82
Dave Duncan, 79
Lucius Allen, 77
John Roche, 75
Craig Heyward, 58
Jim Caviezel, 56
Serena Williams, 43
Sean Doolittle, 38
Matt Waldron, 28

— Obscure trivia: There was a guy named Mel McGaha, who managed the Kansas City A’s in 1964-65; he was the A’s manager when I became a fan at age 5. The A’s were terrible back then, and he got fired fairly quickly.
McGaha never played in the major leagues, but he did play 51 basketball games for the Knicks in 1949, in the old BAA, a predecessor to the NBA.

— Diamondbacks 8, Giants 2
Zac Gallen struck out 11 guys, allowed one run in 6 IP.
Pavin Smith hit a 3-run homer.
Arizona/Mets are tied for last Wild Card slot, a game ahead of Atlanta.

— Dodgers 4, Padres 3
Dodgers leas NL West by three games, with four left to play.
Shohei Ohtani knocked in the winning run, in the 6th inning.
Padres magic number for clinching NL’s #1 Wild Card slot is at 2.

— Royals 3, Nationals 0
Kansas City gets off the mat by tossing consecutive shutouts.
Royals have scored total of five runs in their last five games.
Royals/Tigers are tied for last two AL playoff slots.

— Tigers 7, Rays 1
Detroit is 29-11 in its last 40 games.
Six Detroit pitchers combined to win this game.

— Phillies 9, Cubs 6
Phillies clinched a first-round bye in playoffs.
Nick Castellanos had three hits, scored three runs.

— If the baseball playoffs started today (they start next week):
NL: Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards- Padres-Mets-Arizona
AL: New York, Guardians, Astros. Wild Cards- Orioles-Royals-Tigers

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Thursday, September 26

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 4

Sunday’s games
Broncos @ Jets (-7.5)
Broncos (1-2)
Denver is 2-0 ATS as a road dog TY; visitor is 3-0 ATS in their games.
Broncos outscored last two opponents 12-3 in second half.
Denver is only 11-43 on third down conversions.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1


Under Payton, Denver is 4-5 ATS as a road underdog (2-0 TY)..
Denver held last two opponents to 251/223 yards.
Rookie QB Nix hasn’t thrown TD pass yet, has four INT’s.
Broncos are 8-16 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
Under is 16-10 in their last 26 road games.


Jets (2-1)
Jets won last two games, giving up 2 TD’s on 19 drives.
Jets have converted 21-37 third down plays.
Jets last two opponents were 7-23 on third down.
Team total: over 2-0-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1


Under Saleh, Jets are 12-15 ATS at home
Since 2021, Jets are 6-11-1 ATS coming off a win.
You’re reading armadillosports.com
Rodgers is 161-86-1 as an NFL starter.
Under is 12-6 in their last 18 home games.


Jets’ OC Hackett was 4-11 as Denver’s coach in ’22, quickly got fired.
Jets won 31-21/16-9 at Denver the last two years.
Broncos are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to the Garden State
Over is 6-4 in last ten series games.

Vikings @ Packers (-2.5)
Vikings (3-0)
Minnesota won first three games, giving up three TD’s on 31 drives.
Vikings have outscored opponents 41-10 in first half.
Last six years, Vikings were 8-10 ATS in NFC North road games.
Team total: over 3-0
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0


QB Darnold is 24-35 as an NFL starter, 3-0 with Vikings.
Vikings are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games coming off a win.
Under O’Connell, Minnesota is 4-4-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Vikings are 13-10-3 ATS in last 26 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Minnesota has two takeaways in all three games (+2 turnovers)


Packers (2-1)
Sounds like QB Love might be back under center this week.
Packers won last two games, giving up 3 TD’s on 19 drives.
Green Bay outscored last two foes 30-7 in first half.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1


First three games, Packers ran ball for 163/261/188 yards.
Green Bay is 21-13-1 ATS in last 35 games as a home favorite.
Last five years, Green Bay was 10-5 in NFC North home games.
Former Boston College HC Hafley is Green Bay’s new DC.
First two games, opponents are 9-32 on third down.


Teams split last eight series games.
Vikings are 3-3-1 SU/3-4 ATS in last seven visits to Lambeau.
Under is 2-0-1 in last three meetings.


Saints @ Falcons (-2.5)
Saints (2-1)
Saints scored 47-44 points in wins, lost 15-12 at home LW.
New Orleans has outscored opponents 68-19 in first half.
Saints are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 games as a road underdog.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0


Last six years, Saints are 12-5-1 ATS in AFC South road games.
First two games, Saints ran ball for 180/190 yards; LW, only 89.
Last five years, New Orleans is 19-12-1 ATS coming off a loss.
QB Carr is 74-89 as an NFL starter.
Under is 16-10 in their last 26 road games.


Falcons (1-2)
Atlanta is 0-2 at home, scoring three TD’s on 18 drives.
Falcons were in red zone last two drives LW, didn’t score on either one.
Falcons are 6-27 on third down, opponents 20-44.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0


Atlanta is 4-14-1 ATS last 19 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 8-11-1 ATS last 20 games coming off a loss.
Last two years, Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in NFC South home games.
New QB Cousins is 78-72-2 as an NFL starter.
Raheem Morris is 22-40 as an NFL head coach.


Saints won nine of last 12 series games.
Falcons covered four of last five meetings.
Saints won five of last six visits to Atlanta.
Over is 4-2 in last six series games.


Eagles (-2.5) @ Buccaneers
Eagles (2-1)
Eagles’ three games were decided by total of nine points.
Eagles didn’t score on first 6 drives LW, scored TD’s on last 2 drives.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1


Philly is 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 7-10-1 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Hurts is 38-21 as an NFL starter.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 16-17-2 ATS coming off a win.
Opponents have converted only 11-33 third down plays.


Buccaneers (2-1)
First three games, Tampa Bay gave up 138-139-136 rushing yards.
Last two games, Bucs were held to 216-223 total yards.
Bucs are 5-21 on third down their last two games.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1


Last three years, Bucs were 1-4 ATS a home underdog.
QB Mayfield is 44-49 as an NFL starter, 12-10 with Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay is 10-8-2 in last 20 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under is 7-3 in last ten Tampa Bay home games.
Bucs are 4-10-2 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.


Tampa Bay (+3) beat Philly 32-9 in playoffs last year.
Buccaneers won five of last six series games.
Eagles are 1-3 SU/ATS in last four visits to Tampa.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.


Bengals (-6) @ Panthers
Bengals (0-2)
Bengals are 0-3, losing by 6-1-5 points.
Bengals scored 25-33 points last two games (6 TD’s on 16 drives).
Team total: over 1-1
Opponents’ team total: under 1-0-1


Bengals are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite.
QB Burrow is 34-27-1 as an NFL starter.
Last 4+ years, Cincinnati is 17-12-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Washington scored on every drive against them last week.
Bengals are 7-2-2 ATS last 11 games vs NFC opponents.


Panthers (1-2)
Carolina scored 36 points LW, scored 10-3 points in weeks 1-2.
Switching to veteran QB Dalton made a huge difference.
Dalton is 84-82-2 as an NFL starter, mostly with Cincinnati.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1


Carolina outgained Las Vegas 437-331 last week.
Panthers are 7-5-2 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog.
Last 3+ years, Carolina is 6-11 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Panthers are 7-34 on third down, opponents 19-40.
Dalton averaged 7.8 yards/pass attempt LW (3.9/2.5 weeks 1-2).


Dalton was 70-65-2 as Cincy’s QB from 2011-19.
Cincinnati is 3-1-1 in last five series games.
Bengals lost two of last three visits to Charlotte.


Jaguars @ Texans (-4.5)
Jaguars (0-3)
Jaguars lost first three games, scoring four TD’s on 29 drives.
In three games, Jaguars are 7-32 on third down.
Last two games, Jaguars were outscored 47-6 in first half.
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1


Jacksonville has been outscored 22-3 in last 2:00 of each half.
First three games, Lawrence averaged only 5.8/5.8/2.9 yards/pass attempt.
QB Lawrence is 21-34 as an NFL starter.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 10-10 ATS as an underdog.
Last two years, Jaguars are 4-2 ATS in AFC South road games.


Texans (2-1)
Last two games, Texans scored two TD’s on 22 drives.
Houston’s two wins were by 2-6 points.
Last two games, Texans ran ball for 75-38 yards.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1


Texans are 4-12 ATS last 16 games as home favorites.
Under Ryans, Houston is 5-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 12-8 as an NFL starter.
Last two years, Texans were 2-4 ATS in AFC South home games.
Houston is 5-12-1 ATS in last 18 games vs NFC opponents.
Last two games, Texas converted 8-28 on third down.


Texans won 10 of last 12 meetings.
Jaguars won 24-21/31-3 in last two visits to Houston.
Road team won last four meetings.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.


Steelers (-2) @ Colts
Steelers (3-0)
Steelers won first three games, allowing two TD’s on 27 drives.
Pittsburgh is +4 in turnovers in its first three games.
All three Steeler games stayed under the total.
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0


Steelers have only three TD’s on 30 drives (10 field goals).
QB Fields is 13-28 as an NFL starter (3-0 with Steelers).
Pittsburgh is 11-6-1 in its last 18 games coming off a win.
Steelers are 14-6-1 ATS in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Last 3+ years, Steelers are 3-1 ATS as a road favorite.


Colts (1-2)
Colts got their first win week LW, after losses by 2-6 points.
First three games, Indy was outgained by 82.7 yards/game.
Indy has averaged 9.5/5.7/7.4 yards per pass attempt.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1


Indy is 16-16 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
2nd-year QB Richardson is 3-4 as an NFL starter.
Under Steichen, Colts are 5-5 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Steichen, Colts are 9-5 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Last two weeks, Colts ran ball for 140-150 yards.


Pittsburgh won eight of last nine series games.
Steelers are 4-1 SU/2-3 ATS in last five visits to Indy.
Last four meetings went over the total.


Rams @ Bears (-1.5)
Rams (1-2)
Rams got first win LW, rallying back from early 14-0 deficit.
Rams have been outscored 48-13 in first half of games.
Under McVay, Rams are 29-35-2 ATS coming off a win.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1


Rams have been outrushed 531-234 in three games.
Rams are 12-35 on third down, opponents 19-43.
LA is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games as a road dog.
Rams are 2-6-2 ATS in last 10 games with spread of 3 or less points.
QB Stafford is 29-20 as Rams’ QB (was 74-93-1 with Detroit).


Bears (1-2)
Bears scored three offensive TD on 32 drives in first three games.
Chicago was outscored 40-13 in first half of those games.
Bears outscored opponents 40-17 in second half of those games.
Team total: under 2-0-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0


Under Eberflus, Bears are 3-3-1 ATS as home favorites.
Chicago converted 9-21 third down plays LW (8-30 first two games).
Bears are 4-8-2 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Rookie QB Williams averaged 3.0/3.0/5.9 yards/pass in his three games.
Bears scored TD’s on pick-6, blocked punt in their only win.


Rams won last three meetings, all by 10+ points.
Rams lost last three visits to Chicago (last visit, 2018)
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.


Commanders @ Cardinals (-5.5)
Commanders (2-1)
Short week/long travel for Commanders after Monday nite win.
Washington won last two games, scoring 21-38 points.
Last two games, Commanders scored 5 TD’s, kicked 8 FG’s on 13 drives.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1


Commanders are 7-3 ATS last ten games as a road underdog.
Washington converted 12 of last 23 third down plays.
Commanders are 17-9-1 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.
Washington OC Kingsbury was Cardinals’ head coach from 2019-22.
Opponents converted 19-31 third down plays.


Cardinals (1-2)
Arizona lost 20-13 LW, after scoring 7 TD’s in first two games.
Cardinals ran ball for 77 yards LW (124-231 first two games).
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1


QB Murray is 29-39-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Last 2+ years, Cardinals are 2-1 ATS as a home favorite.
LW, Arizona converted 1-9 on third down (14-24 first two games).
Arizona is 15-11 ATS in last 26 games coming off a loss.


Washington won three of last four series games.
Commanders lost three of last four visits to Arizona.
Last four meetings stayed under the total.


Patriots @ 49ers (-10.5)
Patriots (1-2)
Patriots have scored only three TD’s on their first 28 drives.
New England has averaged 4.8/4.2/1.8 yards/pass attempt.
Patriots are 30-41 since Brady left town.
Team total: over 1-1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1


New England is 10-13 ATS last 23 games as a road underdog.
New England gave up 23-24 points in losing their last two games.
Patriots were 8-27 on third down in those games.
Patriots are 0-5-1 ATS in last six games vs NFC teams.
Patriots QB Brissett is 19-32 as an NFL starter.


49ers (1-2)
49ers lost their last two games, giving up 23-27 points.
49ers outgained Rams 425-296 LW, but their special teams got riddled.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-0-1


49ers are 9-7 ATS in last sixteen games off a loss.
QB Purdy is 22-7 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is 11-6 ATS last 17 games as a home favorite.
49ers are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC opponents.
49ers have averaged 6.9/7.1/9.3 yards/pass attempt.


Road team won last four meetings.
Patriots won 30-17/30-21 in last two visits here.
Under is 3-2 in last five series games.


Browns @ Raiders (-3)
Browns (1-2)
Cleveland scored 17-18-15 points in its 1-2 start.
Browns are 8-43 on 3rd down so far, 7-11 on 4th down.
Browns have gained 230-297-217 yards in their three games.
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1


Browns won their only road game; visitors are 3-0 ATS in their games.
QB Watson is 38-33 as an NFL starter, 9-6 with Browns.
Cleveland is 11-3-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 6-4 ATS in last 10 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Browns have averaged 2.74.8/3.3 yards/pass attempt. .


Raiders (1-2)
Raiders have given up 22-23-36 points in their 1-2 start.
Las Vegas is 14-18-1 ATS in last 33 games following a loss.
Raiders have converted only 12-37 third down plays.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1


Last 2+ years, Raiders are 9-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Raiders are 10-6-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.
First three games, Las Vegas was outrushed by 72 yards/game.
Las Vegas is 14-18-1 ATS in last 33 games following a loss.
QB Minshew is 16-24 as an NFL starter; Raiders are his 4th team.


This is teams’ first meeting wince 2021.
Raiders won last four meetings (3-1 ATS)
Browns lost three of last four visits to Oakland.
This is Browns’ first visit to Las Vegas.
Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.


Chiefs (-7.5) @ Chargers
Chiefs (3-0)
Chiefs won their first three games, by 7-1-5 points.
Kansas City wis 3-0 despite being minus-4 in turnovers.
Chiefs were down 16-10/14-13 at halftime of last two games.
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1


Last 4+ years, KC is 14-16-1 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Mahomes is 92-25 as an NFL starter.
Chiefs are 9-6 ATS in last 15 AFC West road games.
Last two weeks, Chiefs converted 7-22 third down plays.
Over is 16-10 in their last 26 road games.


Chargers (2-1)
QB Herbert re-injured his ankle last week; check status.
Backup QB Heinicke is 13-15-1 as an NFL starter.
Bolts are 17-25-2 ATS in last 44 games coming off a loss.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1


Last 5+ years, Chargers are 5-7-1 ATS as home underdogs.
Chargers outrushed first three opponents, 456-275.
Chargers are 6-4 ATS in last 10 AFC West home games.
QB Herbert is 32-34 as an NFL starter.
Under is 3-0 in their first three games.


Chiefs won 17 of last 20 series games.
Chiefs are 10-0 SU/8-2 ATS in last ten road series games.


Bills @ Ravens (-2.5)
Bills (3-0)
Bills won their first three games, scoring 34-31-47 points.
Buffalo outscored first three opponents 44-18 in second half.
Bills have scored 13 TD’s on their first 26 drives.
Team total: over 3-0
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1


Buffalo is 9-3-2 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
Bills are 25-18-2 ATS in last 45 games coming off a win
QB Allen is 71-35 as NFL starter.
Bills have scored 65 points despite being 6-18 on third down.
Buffalo outscored first three foes 17-3 in last 2:00 of each half.


Ravens (1-2)
Baltimore’s first three games were decided by total of 13 points.
Ravens have been outscored 53-31 in second half.
Ravens are 17-4 ATS in last 21 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-0


Ravens are 8-14 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite.
Over is 6-1 in Baltimore’s last seven regular season games.
QB Jackson is 61-25 as an NFL starter.
Baltimore is 14-17 ATS in last 31 games coming off a win.
This year, Ravens have run the ball for 185-151-274 yards.


Buffalo won last two meetings, 23-20/17-3
Bills are 1-5 ATS in last six visits to Baltimore.
Under is 5-1 in last six series games.

Monday’s games
Titans @ Dolphins (-1)
Titans (0-3)
Titans have been outscored 48-14 in second half of games.
Tennessee is minus-7 in turnovers, have had two punts blocked.
Titans are 11-10-2 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-0-1


Tennessee is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a road dog.
Titans outgained two of three opponents, led twice at halftime.
Tennessee is 9-11-2 ATS in last 22 games coming off a loss.
QB Levis is 3-9 as an NFL starter.
Tennessee has averaged 5.3/5.3/4.9 yards/pass attempt.


Dolphins (1-2)
Miami has QB injury issues; check status.
Thompson is 1-2 as an NFL starter; Boyle is 0-5 .
Under McDaniel, Miami is 10-6 ATS as home favorites (0-2 TY).
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1


Last two games, Dolphins have one touchdown on 21 drives.
Miami has been outscored 58-20 in first half of games.
Last two games, Dolphins were outscored 14-0 in second half.
Miami is 7-10 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Dolphins were 1-12 on 3rd down LW (15-31 weeks 1-2).


Teams split their last ten meetings.
Titans are 3-2 SU/ATS in last five visits to Miami.
Over is 4-2 in last six series games.


Seahawks @ Lions (-3.5)
Seahawks (3-0)
Seattle won its first three games, by 6-3-21 points.
QB’s they went against: Nix, Brissett, Thompson. Not great.
Seahawks are 13-8 ATS last 21 games as road underdogs.
Team total: over 3-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1


QB Smith is 33-37 as an NFL starter, 21-18 with Seattle.
Seahawks held first three foes to 3.0-4.2-3.7 yards/pass attempt.
Seahawks are 12-19-2 in last 33 games coming off a win.
Opponents have converted 12 of 46 third down plays.
Seattle has allowed three TD’s on 37 drives this year.


Lions (2-1)
Lions have run the ball for 163-139-188 yards so far.
Detroit has converted 19 of 38 third down plays.
Opponents have converted 8 of 31 third down plays.
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0


Lions outgained last two opponents, 836-493.
Goff is 28-25-1 as Detroit’s QB (was 44-30 with Rams)
Under Campbell, Detroit is 14-8 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under is 3-0 in their games this season.
Lions have outscored opponents 17-3 in last 2:00 of each half.


Seattle won last five meetings, covered last four.
Seahawks won/covered last three visits to Detroit.
Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
DAL at NYG	08:15 PM	DAL -5.5 U 45.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

NFL BEST BETS SEPTEMBER !

09/26/2024..............................1 - 1 - 0.............................50.00%.........................- 0.50
09/23/2024..............................2 - 2 - 0.............................50.00%..........................- 1.00
09/22/2024............................11 - 9 - 0..............................55.00%.........................+ 5.50
09/19/2024..............................1 - 1 - 0..............................50.00%.........................- 0.50
09/16/2024..............................1 - 1 - 0..............................50.00%.........................- 0.50
09/15/2024............................15 - 4 - 2...............................78.94%........................+ 53.00
09/12/2024..............................1 - 1 - 0..............................50.00%.........................- 0.50
09/09/2024..............................0 - 2 - 0..............................00.00%.........................- 11.00
09/08/2024.............................5 - 11 - 0.............................31.25%..........................- 41.00
09/06/2024................................0 - 2................................00.00%..........................- 11.00
09/05/2024................................0 - 2.................................00.00%.........................- 11.00

TOTALS..................................37 - 36 - 2............................50.68%..........................- 18.50

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s 6-pack:
Players with most receiving yards in NFL:
338— Nico Collins, Hst
288— Rashee Rice, KC
276— Jauan Jennings, SF
273— Justin Jefferson, Minn
271— Malik Nabers, NJG
262— DK Metcalf, Sea

Quote of the Day
“I want to take a minute to share with all you how privileged and honored I feel to stand on this field……..I want to thank you guys for coming out today to share this moment with the club I’m so proud of. We played our asses off this year…….Let’s go Oakland!!!”
A’s manager Mark Kotsay

Friday’s quiz
What pitcher won the most games at the Oakland Coliseum?

Thursday’s quiz
50 years ago, Oakland A’s won their third straight World Series; Alvin Dark was their manager that year.

Wednesday’s quiz
Of all the active players in the major leagues, Marcus Semien has played the most games in the Oakland Coliseum.

*******************************************

Friday’s Den: NFL notes and some other thoughts…….​

— Cowboys 20, Giants 15
Dallas won eight in row, 14 of last 15 series games.
Cowboys held Giants to 26 rushing yards on 24 attempts.
Dallas overcame 11 penalties for 89 yards.
CeeDee Lamb caught seven passes for 98 yards and a TD.
On their first six drives, Giants kicked five field goals.
On their last two drives, Giants ran 11 plays for 15 yards.
QB Jones is 24-40-1 as an NFL starter.
Rookie WR Nabers caught 12 passes for 115 yards, but left with a concussion.

— Army 42, Temple 14
Army is 4-0, with I-A wins by 17-23-28 points.
Black Knights outgained Temple, 489-219
Army ran the ball 57 times for 417 yards.
Under Drayton, Temple is 10-15 ATS as an underdog.

— A’s 3, Rangers 2
Crowd of 46,889 watched the A’s last-ever game in Oakland.
JT Ginn got 16 outs and his first major league win.
Mason Miller got the last four outs and his 28th save.

— White Sox 7, Angels 0
39-120 White Sox won for the third day in a row.
Angels are paying:
Anthony Rendon $38,571,429
Mike Trout $37,116,667……..that adds up to
$75,688,096……..for two guys.
Oakland’s ENTIRE TEAM makes $63,136,720; the A’s are six games ahead of the Angels.

— Dodgers 7, Padres 2
LA trailed 2-0 after six innings; they scored five runs in 7th inning.
Dodgers win NL West for 11th time in last 12 years.
Dodgers drew over 3,941,000 fans to their home games this season.

— New York 10, Orioles 1
Aaron Judge hit his 58th home run.
New York clinched the AL East.

— Tigers 4, Rays 3
Detroit has won five games in a row.
Tigers’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is xxx.

— Famous birthdays, September 27th:
Mike Schmidt, 75
Monte Towe, 71
Steve Kerr, 59
Rob Moore, 56
Gwyneth Paltrow, 52
Anthony Morrow, 39
Christian Wood, 29
Mitchell Parker, 25

Some notes on how NFL teams do on their first drive of a half:

— Arizona’s first drive of each game:
70 yards, TD
60 yards, TD
70 yards, TD

— Green Bay, on first drive of 3rd quarter:
70 yards, TD
23 yards, field goal
36 yards, TD

— Colts on first drive of each half:
offense- 22 plays, 51 yards, no points.
defense- 48 plays, 223 yards, five field goals.

— Jaguars on first drive of game:
offense- 11 plays, 2 yards, no points.
defense- 33 plays, 192 yards, 14 points.

— Rams on first drive of each half:
offense- 20 plays, 42 yards, no points.
defense- 39 plays, 294 yards, 28 points.

— Chiefs on their first drive of each half:
68 plays, 429 yards, 27 points.

— Raiders on their first drive of each half:
22 plays, 67 yards, no points.

— Saints on first drive of each half:
55 plays, 355 yards, 31 points.

— Ravens’ first drive of each half:
41 plays, 331 yards, 31 points.

— Chargers’ opponents on first drive of games:
nine plays, 20 yards, three punts.

— New England on first drive of each half:
20 plays, 38 yards, no points.

— Jets on first drive of game:
16 plays, 38 yards, no points.
Jets on first drive of second half:
19 plays, 153 yards, 14 points.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
College football teams that are 0-4 against the spread:
— Kansas
— Kent State
— LSU
— Middle Tennessee
— NC State
— TCU
— Wyoming

Quote of the Day
“Obviously, it sucks. We put ourselves in this position early on. We had a bad April. We just never dug ourselves out of that hole. We are where we are because of the way we played, which sucks.”
White Sox P Garrett Crochet, after Chicago’s 121st loss Friday

Saturday’s quiz
What quarterback has thrown the most TD passes against the New Jersey Giants?

Friday’s quiz
Catfish Hunter was the pitcher won the most games at the Oakland Coliseum.

Thursday’s quiz
50 years ago, Oakland A’s won their third straight World Series; Alvin Dark was their manager that year.

*****************************************

Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a fall Friday……..​

— Tigers 4, White Sox 2
Detroit clinched its first playoff spot since 2014.
Tigers are 34-17 in their last 51 games.
44,435 fans celebrated Detroit’s making the playoffs.
Tigers actually dumped four veterans at the trade deadline in July
Detroit manager AJ Hinch was the Astros’ skipper when they won the World Series in 2017, and lost the World Series in 2019. He’s a really good manager.

— White Sox lost their 121st game, the most any team has lost since 1900.

— Orioles 7, Twins 2
Cade Povich tossed 5.2 scoreless IP.
Baltimore wraps up the #1 Wild Card in the AL.
Minnesota is eliminated- they’re 4-10 in their last 14 games.
Twins’ loss puts Kansas City in the playoffs.
Royals are in playoffs for first time since 2015- they were 56-106 last year.

— Braves 3, Royals 0
Max Fried allowed three hits in 8.2 scoreless IP.
Royals were shut out for third time in their last six games.

— Brewers 8, Mets 4
Rhys Hoskins hit a first inning grand slam.

— Padres 5, Diamondbacks 3
Luis Arraez had two doubles and a triple for San Diego.
Padres clinch the #1 Wild Card in the National League.
Braves/Mets/Arizona are now all tied for the last two NL Wild Cards.
Braves/Mets are scheduled to play a doubleheader in Atlanta Monday.

— Cubs 1, Reds 0
Jameson Taillon threw seven shutout IP.
Tough-luck loser Nick Martinez was 4-1, 0.83 in five September starts.

— Last four World Series champs finished in the top 4 in home runs during the regular season.
Top 5 teams in home runs this season:
235- New York (A)
228- Baltimore
227- Los Angeles
208- Atlanta
207- Arizona

— Famous birthdays, September 28th:
Steve Largent, 70
Todd Worrell, 65
Irving Fryar, 62
Johnny Dawkins, 61
Mira Sorvino, 57
José Calderón, 43
Emeka Okafor, 42
Ryan Zimmerman, 40
Riley Greene, 24

— Miami 38, Virginia Tech 34
Miami drove 57 yards, scored game-winning TD with 1:57 left.
Hokies led 24-17 at halftime.
Tech was 9-14 on third down, Miami 10-15
Miami is 5-0; they gained 508 yards, survived three turnovers.

— Rutgers 21, Washington 18
Huskies outgained Rutgers, 521-299.
Rutgers was 7-15 on third down, Washington 2-12
Washington missed a 55-yard FG with 0:03 left.
These schools are in same league, despite being 2,854 miles apart.

— Interesting article on the Interweb about how the Denver Broncos spent this week in West Virginia, after playing in Tampa last week- they play the Jets in New Jersey Sunday.
Broncos stayed at the Greenbrier resort in West Virginia this week. Back in 2012, when he was suspended for Bountygate, Denver coach Sean Payton caddied in a PGA golf tournament at Greenbrier. Saints later had three training camps there.
Trip is costing the Broncos around $2M.
Weather was cruddy Friday and the Greenbrier doesn’t have an indoor practice facility; the Broncos practiced on indoor tennis courts.
Denver is traveling with 36,000 pounds of gear.
Apparently the Broncos get honey from beehives behind their indoor practice facility in Colorado; they brought some of that honey with them to West Virginia.

— Dallas Cowboys hosted the Ravens last week, September 22; they have only one home game between then and November 10th.
Week 4- won 20-15 @ Giants
Week 5- @ Pittsburgh
Week 6- home vs Detroit
Week 7- bye week
Week 8- @ San Francisco
Week 9- @ Atlanta
Week 10- home vs Philadelphia

— Auburn is changing QB’s again this week for their game with Oklahoma; Payton Thorne is back as Auburn’s starter- he got benched after they lost 21-14 to the Cal Bears three weeks ago.

— Big trade in the NBA:
Knicks are acquiring Karl-Anthony Towns from Minnesota.
In return, Timberwolves get:
Julius Randle
Donte DiVincenzo
Detroit Pistons’ 2025 first round pick
Towns will reunite with Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau, whom he played for in Minnesota from 2016-19.