Cnotes NL 2024-2025 Schedule, Best Bets, Opinons, News !

[CNOTES]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting Week 5 spreads in the NFL:
— Buccaneers @ Atlanta (-1.5)
— Jets vs Vikings (-2.5) (@ London)
— Ravens (-2.5) @ Cincinnati
— Colts @ Jaguars (-3)
— Dolphins (-1) @ New England
— Browns @ Washington (-3)

Quote of the Day
“I don’t know (what the plan is), but I’d say there’s a number of issues there. One is (they) can’t move the ball and can’t score.”
Bill Belichick, talking about the Patriots

Tuesday’s quiz
Cubs won World Series over Cleveland in 2016; who was the Cubs’ starting pitcher in Game 7?

Monday’s quiz
Anthony Lynn was the Chargers’ coach, last time they won a playoff game.

Sunday’s quiz
Mark Sanchez was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game, in 2010

*************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..​

— Mets 8-0, Braves 7-3
Teams split their twinbill, both make the playoffs.
Rough day for the Diamondbacks, who get nosed out of the playoffs.
September 22, Arizona led 8-0 in 3rd inning in Milwaukee, lost 10-9. That one will sting all winter long.
Mets’ 8-7 win in Game 1 Monday was an epic ballgame, fun to watch.

— Neither team that played in last year’s World Series made the playoffs this year.

— Titans 31, Dolphins 12
Titans’ backup QB Rudolph was 9-17/85 passing, with NO TURNOVERS.
Pollard carried ball 22 times for 88 yards and a TD.
Both teams were 2-12 on third down.
Titans are 1-3, but outgained three of four opponents, led 3 games at halftime.
Miami has already played four different QB’s in five games.
Miami has been outscored 67-23 in first half of games.
Last two weeks, Dolphins were 3-24 on third down.
Last three games, Dolphins have two touchdowns on 33 drives.

Lions 42, Seahawks 27
Detroit scored six touchdowns on ten drives.
Goff was 18-18 passing, averaging 12.4 yards/attempt.
Goff also caught a 7-yard TD pass from WR St Brown.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 15-8 ATS in games coming off a win.
Smith was 38-56/395 passing, career highs.
Detroit led 21-7 at halftime.
Seahawks in first half: 31 plays, 172 yards, 7 points.
Seattle has gone over its team total in all four games.

— Purdue’s football team is 1-3, losing its three I-A games by a combined 132-38, so they fired the offensive coordinator Graham Harrell, who is making $950,000 this year and was going to make $1M next year. Purdue is heading towards its 10th losing season in 13 years; they did well in 2021-22 under Jeff Brohm, but then he bolted to Louisville.

— Miami Marlins/manager Skip Schumaker parted ways, which was expected. Schumaker was last year’s Manager of the Year when the Marlins went 84-78 and the playoffs, but the GM from last year quit during the off-season when the new owners inserted someone above her in the team hierarchy. Schumaker will be a coveted free agent this winter.

— Tough few days for celebrities: Kris Kristofferson, Dikembe Mutombo, Pete Rose all passed away in the last few days. RIP, guys.

— You hear Pete Rose’s name and you think Hall of Fame; I’ve got a name of someone who needs to be inducted into Cooperstown.
Dr Frank Jobe was the first doctor to perform Tommy John Surgery on pitchers’ elbows; who has contributed more to baseball than he has?
They put Marvin Miller in the Hall of Fame; he made players a lot wealthier but screwed the small market teams- what value did he provide the game?
Frank Jobe definitely belongs in the Hall of Fame.

— Famous birthdays, October 1st:
Rod Carew, 79
Mark McGwire, 61
Zach Galifianakis, 55
Matt Cain, 40
Brie Larson, 35
Robbie Ray, 33
Xander Bogaerts, 32
Cedric Mullins, 30
Jordan Whittington, 24

— College basketball season starts in five weeks; Gonzaga-Baylor will play on on Opening Night, November 4 in Spokane, the first of a 3-year series between the two teams.

— Random trivia: Only two players ever have appeared in all 162 games of a baseball season, being the team’s DH in every game:
Rusty Staub, 1978 with Detroit
Willie Horton, 1979 with Seattle

— Forgot to mention this last week; it was pretty cool that before the A’s last game in Oakland Thursday, Barry Zito sang the national anthem. Zito was a really good pitcher; he was 102-63 in eight years with the A’s during the Moneyball era, later pitched seven more years with the Giants.

— This was the first baseball season in ten years where no team won 100+ games.

— Padres’ 1B Luis Arraez won his third consecutive batting title, playing for a different team all three years.

— Some early season college football conference trends:
AAC- Favorites are 5-1 ATS in conference games.
ACC- Non-conference home favorites are 3-10 ATS.
Big X- Favorites were 2-4-1 ATS in conference games this past week.
Big 18- Home teams are 6-9 ATS in conference games.
C-USA- Non-conference road underdogs are 5-8 ATS.
MAC- MAC teams are 13-21 ATS in non-conference games.
Mountain West- 7-4 ATS in non-conference home games.
SEC- Conference home favorites are 0-6 ATS, home dogs are 3-2.
Sun Belt- Non-conference road underdogs are 10-6 ATS

— Imagine what a day Sunday was for Charlie Blackmon; after 14 years in the major leagues, four All-Star teams, 1,805 hits and $138M in career earnings, Sunday was the last day in his career, all of which was spent with the Rockies.
When the Rockies took the field for the start of the game Sunday, Blackmon ran out, but his teammates stayed in the dugout, while Blackmon stood in the outfield and got a huge ovation from the home crowd. Pretty cool.

 

[Udog]

WEEK 5

Thursday, October 3

Sunday, October 6

Monday, October 7

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

 

[Udog]

NFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tampa Bay vs Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Atlanta's last 12 games when playing Tampa Bay

NY Jets vs Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
NY Jets is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing NY Jets

Carolina vs Chicago
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Buffalo vs Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Houston
Buffalo is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Baltimore vs Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore

Indianapolis vs Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Indianapolis's last 23 games
Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

Miami vs New England
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
New England is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 9 games

Cleveland vs Washington
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Cleveland's last 12 games on the road
Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games at home

Arizona vs San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home

Las Vegas vs Denver
Las Vegas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Las Vegas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver's last 9 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 15 games when playing Las Vegas

Green Bay vs LA Rams
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Green Bay is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Rams
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

NY Giants vs Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Giants
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Giants

Dallas vs Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

New Orleans vs Kansas City
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 5

Thursday’s game
Buccaneers @ Falcons (-1.5)
Buccaneers (3-1)
Tampa Bay (+7) upset Detroit 2016 in its only road game.
Bucs scored 37-20-33 points in wins; they lost 26-7 to Denver.
Bucs are 6-3 ATS in last nine NFC South road games.
Team total: under 2-2
Opponents’ team total: over 2-2


Bucs are 8-1 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
QB Mayfield is 45-49 as an NFL starter, 13-10 with Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay is 11-8-2 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under is 17-9 in last 26 Tampa Bay road games.
Bucs are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.


Falcons (2-2)
Atlanta’s two wins are by 1-2 points.
Falcons scored 22-26 points in wins, 10-17 in losses.
Falcons are 10-38 on third down, opponents 27-57.
Team total: under 2-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1


Atlanta is 4-15-1 ATS last 20 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 1-7 ATS last eight games coming off a win.
Last 2+ years, Atlanta is 4-3 ATS in NFC South home games.
New QB Cousins is 79-72-2 as an NFL starter.
Under is 3-1 in their games this year.
Raheem Morris is 23-40 as NFL head coach; he was coach of the Buccaneers from 2009-11.


Tampa Bay won seven of last nine series games.
Buccaneers are 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in last five visits to Atlanta.

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting Week 5 spreads in the NFL:
— Bills (-1) @ Houston
— Panthers @ Chicago (-4)
— Raiders @ Denver (-3)
— Cardinals @ 49ers (-7.5)
— Giants @ Seattle (-6)
— Cowboys @ Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Quote of the Day
“Let me say it the best way I can say it: If anyone wants to blame anyone for Jordan Montgomery being a Diamondback, you’re talking to the guy who should be blamed. Because I brought it to their attention. I pushed for it. They agreed to it.”
Arizona Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick

Wednesday’s quiz
Who was the last pitcher to win 25+ games in a season?

Tuesday’s quiz
Cubs won World Series over Cleveland in 2016; Kyle Hendricks was the Cubs’ starting pitcher in Game 7.

Monday’s quiz
Anthony Lynn was the Chargers’ coach, last time they won a playoff game.

************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….​

— Tigers 3, Astros 1
Tarik Skubal tossed six shutout IP in his playoff debut.
Detroit scored three runs in 2nd inning; that was enough.
Loss ends Astros’ 10-game win streak in playoff series openers.
— Detroit had 41 games this season where their starting pitcher threw 3 or fewer innings, which is highly unusual for a playoff team.

— Royals 1, Orioles 0
Cole Ragans allowed four baserunners in six shutout IP.
Bobby Witt knocked in only run with a 6th-inning single.
Baltimore is 33-34 since the All-Stsr break.

— Mets 8, Brewers 4
Mets scored five runs in fifth inning to break game open.
Mark Vientos was 2-4 with two runs scored, two RBI
Milwaukee has lost 10 of its last 11 playoff games.

— Last Friday in Toronto, Marlins SS Xavier Edwards hit three triples in Miami’s 15-5 win over the Blue Jays. He is the first player to hit three triples in a game since Yasiel Puig in 2014.

— Imagine having CJ Abrams as the shortstop on your fantasy team? Season is coming to an end, Abrams was hot (8 for his last 17) but then on September 20, five hours before a day game at Wrigley Field, Abrams was spotted in a casino very late at night before the day game.
Washington front office didn’t take this well; they sent Abrams to the minor leagues, ending his season, costing him $30,000 in salary, and totally screwing people who had him on their fantasy squads (I wasn’t one of them).

— Famous birthdays, October 2
Dick Barnett, 88
Bob Robertson, 78
Gordon Sumner, 73 (Sting)
Lorraine Bracco, 70
Dave Beard, 65
Mark Rypien, 62
Aaron McKie, 52
Joe Ingles, 37
Aaron Hicks, 35
Missed this one yesterday; President Jimmy Carter turned 100 on Monday.

— NFL games were 10-6 to the over in Week 4; under is 33-31 for the season.
Team totals were 18-14 over; under is 68-57-3 this season.

— People are fickle; best to stay off social media after your favorite team loses, since every nitwit on Twitter thinks he knows more than the team’s coach/GM.

— Gonzaga is jumping to the Pac-12 starting in 2026-27, which helps the Pac-12 more than it will help Gonzaga. We preach about this every year; best to be a very big fish in a small pond.
Think back to UNLV in the Tarkanian days in the late 80’s; they dominated the Big West, were a national power, just like Gonzaga is now, but then they moved up to the Mountain West and haven’t been the same since.
Gonzaga isn’t a football school; the Pac-12 has to add a football school to get to eight teams and will probably also add either Grand Canyon or Saint Mary’s to giver them a 10-team basketball league.

— Texas-El Paso is jumping to the Mountain West two years from now; Miners bolted from the WAC to Conference USA in 2005, now they’re moving again.
UNLV/Air Force are staying in the Mountain West.

— Must be nice to be really, really rich; Tom Gores, owner of the Detroit Pistons, is buying a 27% stake in the LA Chargers, who are valued at being worth $5.1B (#20 in NFL).
Gores is buying out the part of the Chargers owned by one of the four Spanos siblings, who was at odds with her three siblings.

— San Francisco Giants fired president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi, replaced him with Buster Posey, the great Giants catcher who retired as a player three years ago.
Giants went 107-55 three years ago, in Zaidi’s third season in charge, but lost to the Dodgers 3-2 in a five-game playoff series; since then, they’ve gone 81-81/79-83/80-82, and Zaidi was told to take a hike. Bob Melvin is expected to stay on as San Francisco’s manager.

 

[ozzy44]

Best NFL Week 5 betting trends​

The trend: Since the start of the 2020 season, the Atlanta Falcons have gone 6-18-1 ATS in games after a win

The trend: The Vikings are 4-0 SU and ATS this season… for the full-game, first half, and first quarter… while also going Over their team total in each game

The trend: The Browns have gone Under their team total in every game this season

The trend: The Bengals have gone Over in eight of their last 10 games

The trend: The Bills have gone Under in 14 of their last 18 road games

The trend: The Colts are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against the Jaguars and 0-8 ATS in their last eight games in Jacksonville

The trend: The Bears have won seven straight games at home

The trend: The Dolphins have covered the spread in seven straight games against the Patriots

The trend: These teams are a combined 6-2 to the Over this season ARZ vs SF

The trend: The Broncos have covered the first quarter spread in 18 of their last 23 games

The trend: The Packers have gone Over in 10 of their last 13 games, the Rams have gone Over in nine of their last 12 games

The trend: The Giants have gone Under in every game this season

The trend: Only three of the Steelers' last 22 home games have surpassed 44 total points scored

The trend: Patrick Mahomes has thrown an interception in every game this season while the Saints are third in the NFL with six picks

 

[ozzy44]

Top NFL Things To Know​

Unexpected Treasure​

Darnold, Vikings Become Contenders
The Minnesota Vikings are the story of the NFL through four weeks. They are 4-0 SU/ATS full game. 4-0 SU/ATS in first half, 4-0 SU/ATS in the 1st quarter and their team totals are 4-0 to the over.

In the last 20 years, the Vikings are the 3rd team to start 4-0 SU/ATS, including 4-0 1H ATS with the 2008 Titans and the 2007 Patriots.

Not only is it a great start, but an unexpected one. Minnesota had a preseason win total of 6.5. The only teams since 1990 to start 4-0 SU with a win total below 7 are the 2024 Vikings, 2009 Broncos, 1999 Rams and 1995 Rams.

The 2009 Broncos and 1995 Rams finished the season a combined 7-17 SU, both missing the playoffs. While the 1999 Rams went 9-3 the rest of the way and won the Super Bowl.

---

Foot Long​

Big Underdogs Start Quick
NFL underdogs of 6+ points are now 9-8 SU and 14-2-1 ATS (87.5%) through four weeks — covering the spread by 7.3 PPG.

In the last 20 years, 65% ATS for 6+ pt dogs is the closest any season has been to this mark through four weeks.

If we go back to 1960, here are the best seasons through four weeks for 6+ pt dogs:
2024: 14-2-1 ATS (87.5%)
1982: 3-1 ATS (75%)
1978: 18-6-1 ATS (75%)

Dogs of 6+ are 9-8 SU through four weeks. For comparison, dogs of 6+ were 3-14 SU through four weeks last year and were 20-87-1 SU (18.7%) between 2019-23 through the first four weeks of the season. Dogs of 6+ haven’t been above .500 SU through four weeks since 1983.

---

Ice Cold​

Public Bettors Struggle
The betting public (51%+ of tickets) are 22-38-2 ATS this season, with a $100 bettor down $1,795 – the worst start for the betting public through four weeks in the last 20 years.

Public by week:
+ Week 4: 5-8-1 ATS
+ Week 3: 6-10 ATS
+ Week 2: 5-10-1 ATS
+ Week 1: 6-10 ATS

Looking overall at how the public fared ATS in the NFL last year, they went 139-115-9 ATS, with a $100 bettor up $1,063 — the best single regular season for the public in the Bet Labs database dating back to 2003.

---

Tight Lines​

Small Spread Early Season
The average point spread for an NFL favorite through four weeks is sitting around -4.2 PPG this season.

That is the lowest mark for any season through the first four weeks since 1982, when there was an NFL strike where Weeks 3-10 were missed, so the data for Weeks 1, 2, 11, 12 was 3.99.

Prior to that, this is the lowest mark through 4 weeks since 1960.

---

No. 1 Stunner​

Caleb Can Join Eli
Caleb Williams has started his NFL career 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS, including 2-0 SU/ATS as a favorite.

Since the merger in 1970, only 1 of 33 QBs taken 1st overall has won and covered their first three starts as a favorite: Eli Manning.

---

A Different Game​

Big Passing Days
So far during 2024, we’ve had just 15 QBs throw for 300+ passing yards. Those 15 QBs are 6-9 SU and just 3-11-1 ATS.

Through two NFL weeks, we had five QBs throw for 300+ yds. None of those teams had covered the spread (0-4-1 ATS). The 1st time since 1980 no team w/300+ pass yds has covered in the 1st two weeks.

 

[ozzy44]

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 56-14 SU and 46-22-2 ATS (67.6%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-5.5 vs. NO)

NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3 points or more, going 8-20-2 SU but 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) in their last 30 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+7 at SF)

NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 18-7 SU and 21-4 ATS (84%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+3 vs. MIN)

Atlanta has 13 straight Unders in Primetime games (including 7 straight on Thursday Night Football)
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TB-ATL (o/u at 44)

Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 53-21-2 ATS since 2013, 71.6%, +29.9 Units, 40.4% ROI, Grade 73)
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1 at NE)

Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 29-8 SU and 26-10-1 ATS (72.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (-4 vs. CAR), WASHINGTON (-3 vs. CLE), DENVER (-2.5 vs. LVR)

GREEN BAY is 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS in the last 10 vs. LA Rams
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-3 a LAR)

Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites in their first seasons with new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 79-64 SU but just 44-88-11 ATS, for 33.3%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs. TB), WASHINGTON (-3 vs. CLE)

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the MAKINEN BETTORS RATINGS projections: HOUSTON +1 vs BUF (+6.4 difference)

 

[ozzy44]

BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS
NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3 points or more, going 8-20-2 SU but 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) in their last 30 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+7 at SF)

CRAZY LOW SCORING GAMES COMMAND ATTENTION
NFL teams that have won a game despite scoring less than 12 points in the victory have carried the momentum through the next game with a 18-12 SU and 20-9-1 ATS (69%) record.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-2.5 vs. LVR)

Alternatively to #11 above, NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 18-7 SU and 21-4 ATS (84%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): NY JETS (+3 vs. MIN)

Top Team Situational NFL Betting Trends​

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* ARIZONA is 9-17 ATS (34.6%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* ARIZONA is 26-19 ATS (57.8%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 24-17 ATS (58.5%) as an underdog since 2021
Systems Match: 2 PLAYs, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+7 at SF)

* ATLANTA is 17-33 ATS (34%) at home since 2018
* ATLANTA is 31-56 ATS (35.6%) as a favorite since 2014
Systems Match: FADE ATLANTA (-1.5 vs. TB)

* BALTIMORE is 48-56 ATS (46.2%) as a favorite since 2015
* BALTIMORE is 39-20 ATS (66.1%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of BALTIMORE (-2.5 at CIN)

* BUFFALO is 35-27 ATS (56.4%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO is 26-20 ATS (56.5%) in road/neutral games since 2019
Systems Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-1 at HOU)

* CAROLINA is 17-30 ATS (36.2%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
System Match: FADE CAROLINA (+4 at CHI)

* CHICAGO is 29-40 ATS (42%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (-4 vs. CAR)

* CINCINNATI is 24-13 ATS (64.9%) as an underdog since 2020
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+2.5 vs. BAL)

* CLEVELAND is 12-7 ATS (63.2%) vs. non-conference foes since 2020
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+3 at WAS)

* DALLAS is 12-5 ATS (70.6%) when coming off SU loss since 2021
* DALLAS is 18-12 ATS (60%) in road/neutral games since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY DALLAS (+2.5 at PIT)

* DENVER is 16-33 ATS (32.7%) as a favorite since 2017
* DENVER is 94-58 UNDER the total (61.8%) since 2015
Systems Match: FADE DENVER (-2.5 vs LVR), also PLAY UNDER in LVR-DEN (o/u at 36)

* GREEN BAY is 21-13 ATS (61.8%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-3 at LAR)

* JACKSONVILLE is 25-39 ATS (39.1%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 18-26 ATS (40.9%) as a favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE is 34-22 UNDER the total (60.7%) since 2021
Systems Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (-3 vs. IND), also PLAY UNDER in IND-JAX (o/u at 46)

* KANSAS CITY is 11-5 ATS (68.8%) vs. non-conference foes since 2021
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-5.5 vs NO)

* LA RAMS are 22-13 ATS (62.9%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* LA RAMS are 42-34 UNDER the total (55.3%) since 2020
Systems Match: PLAY LA RAMS (+3 vs GB), also PLAY UNDER in GB-LAR (o/u at 48.5)

* LAS VEGAS is 23-13 ATS (63.9%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
* LAS VEGAS is 33-46 ATS (41.8%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LAS VEGAS (+2.5 at DEN)

* MIAMI is 33-21 ATS (61.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
* MIAMI is 48-35 ATS (57.8%) as an underdog since 2014
Systems Match: PLAY MIAMI (+1 at NE)

* MINNESOTA is 21-24 ATS (46.7%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* MINNESOTA is 30-16 ATS (65.2%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* MINNESOTA is 51-38 OVER the total (57.3%) since 2019
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (-3 vs. NYJ), also PLAY OVER in NYJ-MIN (o/u at 40.5)

* NEW ORLEANS is 26-17 ATS (60.5%) when coming off SU loss since 2018
* NEW ORLEANS is 35-18 ATS (66%) in road/neutral games since 2018
Systems Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (+5.5 at KC)

* NY GIANTS are 48-22 UNDER the total (68.6%) since 2020
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NYG-SEA (o/u at 43.5)

* NY JETS are 12-26 ATS (31.6%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* NY JETS are 19-40 ATS (32.2%) in road/neutral games since 2017
Systems Match: FADE NY JETS (+3 vs. MIN)

* PITTSBURGH is 20-28 ATS (41.7%) as a favorite since 2018
* PITTSBURGH is 95-62 UNDER the total (60.5%) since 2015
Systems Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-2.5 vs. DAL), also PLAY UNDER in DAL-PIT (o/u at 44)

* SAN FRANCISCO is 36-25 ATS (59%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* SAN FRANCISCO is 19-13 ATS (59.4%) vs. divisional opponents since 2019
Systems Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-7 vs. ARI)

* SEATTLE is 33-20 ATS (62.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-6 vs. NYG)

* WASHINGTON is 19-9 ATS (67.9%) when coming off SU win since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 39-30 UNDER the total (56.5%) since 2020
Systems Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (-3 vs. CLE), also PLAY UNDER in CLE-WAS (o/u at 44.5)

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
Interesting Week 5 spreads in college football:
— Syracuse @ UNLV (-6.5)
— Ole Miss (-9) @ South Carolina
— Michigan @ Washington (-2.5)
— USC (-8) @ Minnesota
— Tennessee (-13) @ Arkansas
— Central Florida (-2.5) @ Florida

Quote of the Day
“Gotta be aggressive out of the gate. I’m going to have to play damn near perfect. That’s how I’m preparing.”
Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow

Thursday’s quiz
Who was manager of the Baltimore Orioles, last time they won a playoff game?

Wednesday’s quiz
Bob Welch was the last pitcher to win 25+ games in a season; he went 27-6 for the A’s in 1990.

Tuesday’s quiz
Cubs won World Series over Cleveland in 2016; Kyle Hendricks was the Cubs’ starting pitcher in Game 7.

**********************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..​

So much for home field advantage in the AL playoffs; road team was 4-0 in the AL Wild Card games, with home teams scoring four runs in the four games.

— Tigers 5, Astros 2
Andy Ibanez hit a bases-loaded double in 8th inning.
Detroit used seven pitchers are they continue a 33-13 run.
Astros won’t play in ALCS for first time in seven years.

— Tigers’ payroll this year is just over $103M, over $32M of which is to guys who aren’t on the Tigers’ roster right now.

— Royals 2, Orioles 1
Baltimore scored one run in losing two games in this series.
Orioles were 33-35 after the All-Star break.
Baltimore has lost its last ten playoff games.

— Mets 3, Brewers 5
Garrett Mitchell, who entered game as a pinch-runner, hit the game-winning HR.
Jackson Chourio/Mitchell both homered in 8th inning.
Game 3 is Thursday.
MLB had to breathe a big sigh of relief when Milwaukee won; Game 3’s in this round get the bigger TV ratings, winner-take-all games.

— Padres 5, Braves 4
Padres scored five runs in second inning, hung on for dear life.
San Diego advances to play the Dodgers in the next round.

— The remote control on my TV died at 3:30 in the morning the other night, so while I wait for Amazon to deliver my new remote, I don’t have access to YouTubeTV on my main television; I’ve been watching the baseball playoff games on my laptop.
Yesterday, just laid on the couch and listened to the Royals-Orioles game on ESPN radio on my phone; it was a throwback to being a kid. Way back when, I listened to a lot of baseball on the radio, before I controlled the remote control in our house.
It was fun, in an odd way, though I am looking forward to getting the new remote today,

— Famous birthdays, October 3rd
Lindsey Buckingham, 75
Dave Winfield, 73
Dennis Eckersley, 70
Jack Wagner, 65
Greg Foster, 56
Anquan Boldin, 44
Courtney Lee, 39
CJ Abrams, 24
CJ Stroud, 23

— There will be scapegoats: Minnesota Twins went 12-27 in their last 39 games; they fired four coaches Wednesday, with all three hitting coaches being told to take a hike.

— Texas State apparently has said no to the Mountain West, will stay in the Sun Belt, where the travel costs will be much lower.

— NFL divisional trends:
NFC East non-divisional home teams are 0-4 ATS
NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 5-1 ATS.
NFC North non-divisional favorites are 6-0 ATS
NFC North non-divisional home teams are 7-1 ATS
NFC South non-divisional home teams are 2-6 ATS
NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 4-0 ATS
NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 1-5 ATS
AFC East teams are 3-8-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 2-5 ATS
AFC North non-divisional road teams are 6-3 ATS
AFC South non-divisional favorites are 1-5 ATS
AFC West non-divisional road teams are 6-1 ATS

— We close with an unusual story:
Missouri plays Texas A&M this week. Marcel Reed is Texas A&M’s quarterback, taking over for an injured Connor Weigman; his sister is Missouri’s assistant director of on campus recruiting.
The sister is “not allowed at practice this week” according to Mizzou coach Eli Drinkwitz.
Awkward…….

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Thursday, October 3

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 5

Sunday’s games
Jets vs Vikings (-2.5) (@ London)
Jets (2-2)
Jets scored 24-24 points in wins, 19-9 in losses.
Jets outscored opponents 20-3 in first half.
Jets’ last three opponents were 10-37 on third down.
Team total: over 2-1-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1


Under Saleh, Jets are 17-26 ATS as an underdog.
Under Saleh, Jets are 15-17 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Saleh, Jets are 4-11-1 ATS vs NFC teams.
Rodgers is 161-87-1 as an NFL starter.
Last three QB’s Jets faced: Levis, Brissett, Nix. Not good.


Vikings (4-0)
Minnesota won first four games, scoring 29 ppg.
Vikings have outscored opponents 69-17 in first half.
Vikings are 9-5-3 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents
Team total: over 4-0
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1


QB Darnold is 25-35 as an NFL starter, 4-0 with Vikings.
Darnold was 13-25 as Jets’ QB from 2018-20.
Vikings are 8-1-1 ATS in last ten games coming off a win.
Vikings are 14-10-3 ATS in last 27 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Minnesota has ten takeaways in four games (+3 turnovers)


Minnesota won last three series games, scoring 27-37-30 points.
Last four meetings went over the total.
Rodgers is 17-11-1 in his career, against the Vikings.


Panthers @ Bears (-3.5)
Panthers (1-3)
Carolina split Dalton’s two starts, scoring 36-24 points.
Panthers scored 7 TD’s on 20 drives, were 12-26 on third down.
Dalton averaged 7.8/5.4 yards/pass attempt (3.9/2.5 weeks 1-2).
Team total: under 2-2
Opponents’ team total: over 3-1


Carolina is 8-16-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog.
Over is 3-1 in Carolina games this year.
Panthers opponents are 26-53 on third down.
Dalton is 84-83-2 as an NFL starter, mostly with Cincinnati.


Bears (2-2)
Bears scored 24-24 points in its win, 13-16 in losses.
Chicago was outscored 46-23 in first half of those games.
Bears outscored opponents 54-29 in second half of those games.
Team total: under 2-1-1
Opponents’ team total: under 4-0


Under Eberflus, Bears are 4-3-1 ATS as home favorites.
Home team won all four of their games (favorites 3-1 ATS)
Bears are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
Rookie QB Williams averaged 3.0/3.0/5.9/5.1 yards/pass in his games.
Under is 3-1 in Chicago’s four games.


Bears swindled Carolina in big trade last year, just before the draft.
Chicago won six of last seven series games.
Panthers are 0-5 SU/2-3 ATS in last five visits to Chicago.
Last three meetings stayed under the total.


Ravens (-2.5) @ Bengals
Ravens (2-2)
Baltimore won last two games, scoring 28-35 points.
Ravens have outscored opponents 61-28 in first half.
Ravens are 18-4 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Team total: under 2-2
Opponents’ team total: over 3-1


Ravens are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.
Over is 3-1 in Baltimore’s games this year.
QB Jackson is 62-25 as an NFL starter.
Baltimore is 15-17 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
Last two weeks, Ravens ran ball for 274-271 yards.
Last five years, Ravens are 9-6 ATS in AFC North road games.


Bengals (1-3)
Last three games, Bengals scored 25-33-34 points.
Last two games, Bengals scored 8 TD’s on 17 drives.
Cincinnati lost its two home games, by 6-5 points.
Team total: over 3-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1-1


Bengals are 7-4-2 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog.
QB Burrow is 35-27-1 as an NFL starter.
Cincinnati is 13-4-1 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win
Last three games, Bengal defense has allowed 26-38-24 points.
Bengals are 9-6 ATS last 15 AFC North home games.


Baltimore is 9-5 in last 14 series games.
Ravens are 1-3 SU/2-2 SU in last four visits to Cincinnati.
Over is 6-1 in last seven meetings.


Dolphins (-1) @ Patriots
Dolphins (1-3)
Miami has QB injury issues; recently-signed Huntley gets his 2nd start here.
Huntley is 3-8 as an NFL starter.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-2 ATS in AFC East road games.
Team total: under 4-0
Opponents’ team total: over 3-1


Last three games, Dolphins have two touchdown on 33 drives.
Miami has been outscored 67-23 in first half of games.
Last two games, Dolphins were outscored 36-9 in second half.
Miami is 7-11 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last two games, Dolphins were 3-24 on 3rd down.
Miami has played four QB’s in four games; not ideal.


Patriots (1-3)
Patriots have scored only four TD’s on their first 40 drives.
New England lost last three games, outscored 51-19 in first half.
Patriots are 30-42 since Tom Brady left town.
Team total: under 2-1-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-1


NE is 1-6-1 ATS in last eight games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
New England gave up 23-24-30 points in losing last three games.
Patriots were 13-43 on third down in those games.
Patriots are 3-6 ATS in last nine AFC East home games.
Patriots QB Brissett is 19-33 as an NFL starter.


Miami won five of last six series games.
Dolphins covered four of last five visits to Foxboro.
Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.


Browns @ Commanders (-3)
Browns (1-2)
Cleveland scored 17-18-15 points in its 1-2 start.
Browns are 8-43 on 3rd down so far, 7-11 on 4th down.
Browns have gained 230-297-217 yards in their three games.
Team total: under 3-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1


Browns won their only road game; visitors are 3-0 ATS in their games.
QB Watson is 38-33 as an NFL starter, 9-6 with Browns.
Cleveland is 11-3-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 6-4 ATS in last 10 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Browns have averaged 2.74.8/3.3 yards/pass attempt.


Commanders (3-1)
Commanders won/covered last three games, scoring 38-42 points in last two.
First time since 1991 that Washington scored 38+ points in consecutive games.
Last three games, Commanders scored 10 TD’s, kicked 10 FG’s on 22 drives.
Team total: over 3-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-2


Commanders are 3-7 ATS last ten games as a home favorite (1-0 TY).
Washington converted 21 of last 35 third down plays.
Commanders are 18-9-1 ATS in last 28 games coming off a win.
Washington is 7-4 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC opponents.
Over is 3-1 in Washington games this year.


Cleveland won last two series games, 24-10/34-20.
Browns lost two of last three visits to Washington.
Three of last four meetings went over the total.


Colts @ Jaguars (-3)
Colts (2-2)
Colts won their last two games, by 5-3 points.
39-year old backup QB Flacco was 16-26/168 LW, with 2 TD passes.
Just like LY, Indy is better off with its backup QB than Richardson.
Team total: under 2-2
Opponents’ team total: under 2-2


Last three weeks, Colts ran ball for 140-150-133 yards.
Indy is 17-16 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
Flacco is 113-88 as an NFL starter, 5-9 since 2020.
Under Steichen, Colts are 2-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Steichen, Colts are 10-5 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.


Jaguars (0-4)
Jaguars lost first four games, scoring six TD’s on 39 drives.
In four games, Jaguars are 11-44 on third down.
Last three games, Jaguars were outscored 64-19 in first half.
Team total: under 3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1


Jacksonville has been outscored 32-3 in last 2:00 of each half.
Lawrence has averaged only 5.8/5.8/2.9/4.6 yards/pass attempt.
QB Lawrence is 21-35 as an NFL starter.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 4-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Last five years, Jaguars are 8-6 ATS in AFC South home games.
Jaguars are 11-19 ATS in last 30 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.


Jaguars won three in row, five of last seven series games.
Colts are 0-9 SU/ATS in last nine visits to Jacksonville.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.


Bills @ Texans (-1.5)
Bills (3-1)
Bills scored 34-31-47 points in their wins; their loss was 35-10.
Buffalo have converted 15 of 42 third down plays.
Bills scored 13 TD’s on their first 26 drives; they had one TD on 10 drives LW.
Team total: over 3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-2


Buffalo is 9-4-2 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
Bills are 4-5 ATS in last nine games coming off a loss.
QB Allen is 71-36 as NFL starter.
Bills are 15-4-1 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Buffalo outscored first four foes 17-3 in last 2:00 of each half.


Texans (3-1)
Texans have wins by 2-6-4 points.
Their only loss was 34-7 at 4-0 Minnesota.
Last three games, Texans ran ball for 75-38-101 yards.
Team total: under 2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1


Texans are 4-12 ATS last 16 games as home favorites.
Houston is 4-9 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 13-8 as an NFL starter.
Houston is 5-7 ATS in last 12 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Under is 3-0 in their last three games.


Houston WR Diggs wasn’t happy when he left Buffalo.
Texans won five of last seven series games.
Bills are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in last four visits to Houston.


Raiders @ Broncos (-3)
Raiders (2-2)
Raiders have given up 22-23-36 points in their 1-2 start.
Las Vegas is 6-3 ATS in last nine games following a win.
Raiders’ two wins were by 3-4 points, losses by 12-14.
Team total: under 2-2
Opponents’ team total: over 2-2


Raiders are 19-12 ATS last 31 games as a road underdog.
Raiders are 9-7 ATS in their last 16 AFC West road games.
Raiders have converted only 16-49 third down plays.
Under is 17-10 in their last 27 road games.
QB Minshew is 17-24 as an NFL starter; Raiders are his 4th team.


Broncos (2-2)
Denver lost only home game 13-6; visitor is 4-0 ATS in their games.
Broncos outscored last three opponents 22-6 in second half.
Denver is only 14-57 on third down conversions.
Team total: over 2-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1


Under Payton, Denver is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Denver held last three opponents to 251/223/248 yards.
Last three opponents scored two TD’s on 33 drives.
Rookie QB Nix hasn’t thrown TD pass yet, has four INT’s.
Broncos are 9-16 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
Denver’s last three games stayed under the total.


Las Vegas won nine in row (8-1 ATS) against the Broncos.
Raiders won their last four visits (3-1 ATS) to Denver.
Over is 3-2 in last five series games.


Cardinals @ 49ers (-7.5)
Cardinals (1-3)
Arizona lost last two games, scoring 13-14 points (28-41 weeks 1-2)
Cardinals are 15-12 ATS last 27 games coming off a loss.
Arizona is 1-5 ATS in last six NFC West road games.
Team total: over 2-2
Opponents’ team total: under 2-2


QB Murray is 29-40-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals are 15-8 ATS last 23 games as a road underdog.
Last two games, Arizona converted 5-20 on third down (14-24 first two games).
Last two games, opponents are 15-24 on third down.
Over is 3-1 in Arizona games this year.


49ers (2-2)
49ers gave up 19-13 points in their wins, 23-27 in losses.
49ers have gained 399+ total yards in all four games.
Last two weeks, SF averaged 9.3/10.1 yards/pass attempt.
Team total: under 2-2
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1-1


49ers are 12-6 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite.
QB Purdy is 23-7 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is 7-5 ATS last 12 NFC West home games.
49ers are 14-10-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
49ers outscored last two opponents 34-10 in first half.


49ers won/covered last four meetings.
Cardinals split their last six visits to Santa Clara.
Over is 5-1 in last six series games.


Packers (-3.5) @ Rams
Packers (2-2)
Green Bay’s two losses were 34-29/31-29.
Packers have three takeaways in all four games (+6 turnovers)
Green Bay outscored last two foes 30-7 in first half.
Team total: over 2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-1


First three games, Packers ran ball for 163/261/188 yards.
Last week, Green Bay ran for only 86 yards.
Green Bay is 2-9-1 ATS in last 12 games as a road favorite.
Green Bay is 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Over is 3-1 in their first four games.


Rams (1-3)
Rams have been outscored 58-19 in first half of games.
Even in their one win, they trailed 14-0 early on.
Under McVay, Rams are 24-17-3 ATS coming off a loss.
Team total: under 3-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-1


Rams have been outrushed 662-353 in four games.
Rams are 17-46 on third down, opponents 22-52.
LA is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games as a home dog.
Under McVay, Rams are 3-4 ATS in their pre-bye game.
Rams’ last three games went over the total.


Green Bay won four in row, nine of last ten meetings.
Rams’ only win in last ten meetings was 29-27 in 2018.
Packers won four of last five road series games.
Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.


Giants @ Seahawks (-6.5)
Giants (1-3)
Giants scored six TD’s on 19 drives in their two road games.
Giants haven’t scored a TD on 19 drives in their two home games.
Big Blue has been outscored 41-15 in second half of games.
Team total: under 3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 2-2


All four of their games stayed under the total. .
Under Daboll, Giants are 13-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Daboll, Giants are 10-7 ATS as a road underdog.
QB Jones is 24-40-1 as an NFL starter.
Opponents are only 17-48 on third down.


Seahawks (3-1)
Short week for Seattle after its Monday night loss in Detroit
QB’s they beat so far: Nix, Brissett, Thompson. Not great.
Goff was 18-18/292 passing in Monday nite’s game.
Team total: over 4-0
Opponents’ team total: over 3-1


QB Smith is 33-38 as an NFL starter, 21-19 with Seattle.
Seahawks are 2-0 at home, beating Denver 26-20/Miami 24-3
Seahawks are 18-13 in last 31 games coming off a loss.
Opponents have converted 15 of 52 third down plays.
Seattle has Thursday nite divisional tilt with 49ers on deck.


Seahawks won/covered six of last seven series games.
Giants are 2-4 SU/3-3 ATS in last six visits to Seattle.
Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.


Cowboys @ Steelers (-2.5)
Cowboys (2-2)
Cowboys gave up 17-15 points in wins, 44-28 in losses.
Road team won/covered all four of their games.
Dallas is 20-15 ATS in last 35 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 3-1
Opponents’ team totalver 2-2


Dallas is 7-10 ATS last 17 games as a road underdog.
QB Prescott is 77-48 as an NFL starter.
Dallas is 7-5 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC opponents.
Cowboys allowed 14.2/12.1 yards/pass attempt in their losses.
Over is 3-1 in Dallas games this season.


Steelers (3-1)
Steelers allowed 10-6-10 points in wins; their loss was 27-24.
Pittsburgh beat Chargers 20-10 in its only home game.
Steelers are 5-4 ATS last nine games as a home favorite.
Team total: under 3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1


Steelers gave up a total of 2 TD’s in first three games- Colts had 3 TD’s LW.
QB Fields is 13-29 as an NFL starter (3-1 with Steelers).
Pittsburgh is 14-8 in its last 22 games coming off a loss.
Steelers are 14-7-1 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Under is 3-1 in their games this season.


Steelers won three of last five series games.
Teams split two meetings in Pittsburgh.
Over is 3-2 in last five series games.


Saints @ Chiefs (-5)
Saints (2-2)
New Orleans lost its last two games, by 3-2 points.
Saints scored 47-44 points in wins, 12-24 in losses.
New Orleans has outscored opponents 82-36 in first half.
Team total: over 3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1


Saints are 16-5-1 ATS last 22 games as a road underdog.
Last week, Saints gave up TDs on offense, special teams, lost 26-24.
Last 5+ years, New Orleans is 20-12-1 ATS coming off a loss.
QB Carr is 74-90 as an NFL starter.
Over is 3-1 in their games this season.


Chiefs (4-0)
Chiefs won their first four games, by 7-1-5-7 points.
Kansas City is 4-0 despite being minus-6 in turnovers.
Chiefs trailed at halftime in three of the four games.
Team total: under 4-0
Opponents’ team total: over 2-2


KC is 15-18 ATS last 33 games as a home favorite.
QB Mahomes is 93-25 as an NFL starter.
Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in last 11 regular season games vs NFC teams.
Chiefs have outscored opponents 49-22 in second half.
KC is 10-16 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.


Chiefs won last three meetings, by 3-6-3 points.
Saints are 1-1 SU/2-0 ATS in last two visits to Arrowhead.
Under is 3-1-1 in last five series games.

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
TB at ATL	08:15 PM	TB +1.5 U 43.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

NFL BEST BETS OCTOBER !

10/03/2024..................1 - 1 - 0..................50.00%...................- 0.50

SEPT.TOTALS............48 - 46 - 2.................51.06%...................- 19.50

 

[CNOTES]

NFL BEST BETS OCTOBER !

10/03/2024..................0 - 2 - 0..................00.00%...................-11.00

SEPT.TOTALS............48 - 46 - 2..................51.06%...................- 19.50

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s 6-pack:
— Falcons 36, Buccaneers 30 OT- Cousins threw for 509 yards, 4 TD’s.
— Cincinnati Reds are hiring Terry Francona as their new manager.
— Mets 4, Brewers 2- Pete Alonso hit a dramatic 3-run homer in 9th inning.
— Today is a good day to be free agent-to-be Alonso’s agent.
— Texas State 38, Troy 17- Bobcats ran for 215 yards, threw for 252 more.
— Sam Houston 41, Texas-El Paso 21- Bearkats win their 4th straight game.

Quote of the Day
“I’m just so happy to come through for the team right there. It’s just something that you practice in the back yard as a kid. Words can’t explain it.”
Pete Alonso

Friday’s quiz
Which NFL team drafted Kirk Cousins?

Thursday’s quiz
Buck Showalter was manager of the Baltimore Orioles, last time they won a playoff game.

Wednesday’s quiz
Bob Welch was the last pitcher to win 25+ games in a season; he went 27-6 for the A’s in 1990.

********************************************************

Friday’s Den: How NFL teams do on first drives of a half…….
How teams do on first drives of a half, through four games:
NFC
Cardinals
1st drive of game: 36 plays, 255 yards, four TD’s.
Allowed TD on opening drive last two games.
Overall on first drive of half: Cardinals 35-28

Falcons
1st drive of half: 54 plays, 316 yards, 16 points.
Opponents: 70 plays, 324 yards, 16 points.
Overall on first drive of half: 16-16

Panthers
First drive in Dalton’s two games: 21 plays, 139 yards, 7 points.
Opponents’ first drive of 3rd quarter: 26 plays, 171 yards, 17 points.
Overall on first drive of half: opponents, 31-13

Bears
1st drive of game: 30 plays, 92 yards, 3 points
Opponents 1st drive of half: 51 plays, 195 yards, 3 FGs
Bears blocked punt for TD on first drive of 2nd half in Week 1
Overall on first drive of half: Bears 13-2

Cowboys
1st drive of game: 26 plays, 62 yards, 3 points
Opponents’ 1st drive of game: 26 plays, 215 yards, 20 points
Overall on first drive of half: Opponents, 37-9

Lions
1st drive of game: 16 plays, 57 yards, 7 points
Opponents’ 1st drive of game: 22 plays, 152 yards, 10 points
Overall on first drive of half: 17-17

Packers
1st drive of 3rd quarter: 21 plays, 135 yards, 17 points
Opponents’ first drive, last two games: 16 plays, 143 yards, 14 points. Overall on first drive of half: Packers 27-21

Rams
First drive of a half: 45 plays, 173 yards, 6 points.
Opponents’ first drive of 2nd half, last 3 games: 31 plays, 235 yards, 21 points.
Overall on first drive of half: opponents, 35-6

Vikings
First drive of a half, last 2 games: 12 plays, 94 yards, 14 points
Opponents’ first drive of a game: 17 plays, 39 yards, no points
Overall on first drive of half: Vikings, 28-3

Giants
First drive of 2nd half: 29 plays, 178 yards, 2 FG’s, 2 fumbles
Opponents’ first drive of 2nd half: 26 plays, 152 yards, 13 points
Overall on first drive of half: opponents, 23-16

Saints
First drive of game: 36 plays, 280 yards, 24 points.
Opponents’ first drive of game: 25 plays, 60 yards, 3 points.
Overall on first drive of half: Saints, 38-9

Eagles
First drive of game: 13 plays, 7 yards, no points.
First drive of 2nd half: 35 plays, 236 yards, 17 points.
Opponents; first drive of 2nd half: 33 plays, 262 yards, 17 points.
Overall on first drive of half: Opponents, 27-17

49ers
First drive of 2nd half: 31 plays, 241 yards, 21 points.
Opponents; first drive of 2nd half: 15 plays, 67 yards, no points.
Overall on first drive of half: 49ers, 31-0
Seahawks
First drive of game: 19 plays, 55 yards, 3 points.
Opponents’ first drive of game: 15 plays, 15 yards, 3 points.
Overall on first drive of half: Seahawks, 17-10

Buccaneers
First drive of game: 27 plays, 171 yards, 13 points.
Opponents’ first drive of game: 13 plays, 65 yards, 7 points.
Overall on first drive of half: Bucs, 27-17

Commanders
First drive of half: 66 plays, 388 yards, 34 points.
Opponents’ first drive of half: 54 plays, 368 yards, 38 points.
Overall on first drive of half: opponents 38-34

Famous birthdays, October 4th:
Tony LaRuasa, 80
Susan Sarandon, 78
Alan Rosenberg, 74
Truck Robinson, 73
AC Green, 61
Liev Schreiber, 57
Kurt Thomas, 52
Kurt Suzuki, 41
Derrick Rose, 36
Dakota Johnson, 35
Sean Murphy, 30
Oneil Cruz, 26

AFC teams
— Ravens
1st drive of game: 24 plays, 253 yards, 24 points
opponents’ 1sr drive, last 3 games: 17 plays, 25 yards, no points.
Overall on first drive of half: Ravens 38-21

— Bills
1st drive of 2nd half: 30 plays, 198 yards, 17 points.
Overall on first drive of half: Bills, 31-21

— Bengals
First drive of 2nd half, last three games: 32 plays, 219 yards, 21 points.
Opponents’ first drive, last three games: 69-70-69 yards, 10 points.
Overall on first drive of half: Bengals, 31-24

— Browns
First drive of last three games: 32 plays, 183 yards, 21 points.
Opponents’ first drive of game: 14 plays, 4 yards, four punts
Overall on first drive of half: Browns, 24-3

— Broncos
First drive of 2nd half: 14 plays, 21 yards, no points.
Opponents’ first drive of game: 11 plays, 2 yards, 2 turnovers, no points.
Overall on first drive of half: Broncos, 10-7

— Texans
First drive of game: 21 plays, 114 yards, 13 points.
First drive of 3rd quarter: 20 plays, 61 yards, 3 points.
Overall on first drive of half: Opponents, 17-16

— Colts
Colts’ first drive of 2nd half: 13 plays, 30 yards, no points.
Opponents tried FG’s (5-6) on six of eight first drives.
Overall on first drive of half: Opponents, 15-7
— Jaguars
1st drive of game: 16 plays, 17 yards, no points
opponents’ first drive of last 3 games: 35 plays, 229 yards, 21 points.
Overall on first drive of half: opponents, 24-7

— Chiefs
Chiefs’ 1st drive of 2nd half: 40 plays, 255 yards, 20 points.
Opponents’ first drive of game: 38 plays, 280 yards, 24 points.
Overall on first drive of half: Opponents 31-30

— Raiders
First drive of game: 12 plays, minus-2 yards, four punts.
Opponents’ first drive, last three games: 31 plays, 165 yards, 17 points.
Overall on first drive of half: opponents 30-3

— Chargers
First drive of last three games: 22 plays, 143 yards, 14 points.
Opponents’ first drive of 2nd half, last 3 games: 28 plays, 127 yards, 3 FG’s.
Overall on first drive of half: Chargers, 20-12

— Dolphins
First drive of a half: 39 plays, 125 yards, no points.
Opponents’ first drive of 2nd half: 14 plays, 12 yards, no points.
Overall on first drive of half: Opponents, 7-0

— Patriots:
First drive of a half: 34 plays, 89 yards, no points.
Opponents’ first drive of 2nd half, last 2 games: 15 plays, 136 yards, 14 points.
Overall on first drive of half: opponents, 17-0

— Jets
First drive of a half: 19 plays, 37 yards, no points.
Opponents’ first drive of a half: 12 plays, one yard, no points.
Overall on first drive of half: Jets, 14-7

— Steelers
First drive of game: 24 plays, 71 yards, 3 points.
Opponents’ first drive of 2nd half: 14 plays, 22 yards, no points.
Overall on first drive of half: opponents, 10-6

— Titans
First drive of 2nd half: 18 plays, 32 yards, no points.
Opponents’ first drive of 2nd half: 19 plays, 104 yards, 14 points.
Overall on first drive of half: opponents 21-7

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Pitchers with most strikeouts in a playoff game:
17- Bob Gibson, StL
16- Kevin Brown, SD
15- Gerrit Cole, Hat
15- Roger Clemens, NYY
15- Livan Hernandez, Mia
15- Mike Mussina, Balt
15- Sandy Koufax, LA

Quote of the Day
“I do think that the postseason is going to be different from the World Baseball Classic, considering that we did have a week off. So I’m doing the best I can to make sure that my first at-bat is really good.”
Shohei Ohtani, who plays in his first major league playoff game tonight

Saturday’s quiz
Before the NHL’s Calgary Flames moved to Calgary in 1980, where did they call home?

Friday’s quiz
Washington Redskins drafted Kirk Cousins, in the 4th round of the 2012 draft.

Thursday’s quiz
Buck Showalter was manager of the Baltimore Orioles, last time they won a playoff game.

*******************************************

Saturday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……..​

Falcons 36, Buccaneers 30 OT
Cousins threw a 45-yard TD pass on first possession of OT.
Cousins threw for 509 yards, four TD’s.
Atlanta’s three wins are by 1-2 points and an OT game.
Falcons scored 22-26-36 points in wins, 10-17 in losses.
Cousins is first QB in last 58 years to throw for 250+ yards before halftime, and 250+ yards after halftime, in the same game.
Tampa Bay in first half: 25 plays, 223 yards, 24 points.
Tampa Bay in second half: 28 plays, 106 yards, six points.
Atlanta outgained the Buccaneers, 550-333.
Over is 11-2 in last 13 series games.
Atlanta WR London caught 12 passes for 154 yards and a TD.

— Texas State 38, Troy 17
Bobcats ran ball for 215 yards, threw for 252 more.
Texas State led 24-10 at halftime.
1-5 Troy ran ball 33 times for only 63 yards.

— Sam Houston 41, Texas-El Paso 21
Bearkats led 17-7 at halftime.
Sam Houston has won four in row since 45-14 loss at UCF.
Sam Houston outgained Miners, 517-323.

— Jacksonville State 63, Kennesaw State 24
Gamecocks outscored Kennesaw 42-7 in second half.
Jax State outgained the Owls, 577-270
Gamecocks ran ball for 384 yards (7.2 yards/carry).

— Houston 30, TCU 19
Cougars were a 16.5-point underdog.
Houston outrushed the Horned Frogs, 207-66.
Houston had been shut out in its previous two games.

— Oregon 31, Michigan State 10
Ducks led 21-0 at halftime.
Oregon was 6-12 on third down, MSU 2-11
Ducks outrushed the Spartans, 213-59.

— Syracuse 44, UNLV 41 OT
Syracuse scored the first 14 points in both halves.
Orange tied game 38-38 with 0:23 left in regulation.
Syracuse was 11-18 on third down, Rebels 3-7.
Syracuse ran 96 plays for 492 yards, UNLV 50 plays for 354 yards.

Famous birthdays, October 5th:
Steve Miller, 81
Dennis Byrd, 58
Rex Chapman, 57
Grant Hill, 52
Jesse Palmer, 46
Travis Kelce, 35
Cody Zeller, 32
Zack Littell, 29

— Mets 4, Brewers 2
Pete Alonso hit a dramatic 3-run homer in top of the 9th.
Quintana threw six shutout IP, Myers threw 5 shutout IP.
Mets advance to play the Phillies in the NLDS.
It is a very good to be Alonso’s agent, seeing how he is a free agent this winter.

— Cincinnati Reds made a great move, hired Terry Francona as their new manager.
Francona has 1,994 career wins and two World Series titles. He also got Cleveland to the 2016 World Series, where they lost to the Cubs.
He left Cleveland after the 2023 season because of health problems, so good to hear he is coming back. Reds will be better off for it.

— Padres’ P Joe Musgrove is out for the playoffs and probably next year too; he’s going to have Tommy John surgery, after leaving Wednesday’s star with a sore elbow.

— Arizona Diamondbacks got to the World Series last year, but they fired pitching coach Brett Strom this week, which seems odd. Arizona was 89-73 this year despite scoring the most runs in MLB, but Strom is a highly thought of pitching coach.
Long time ago, when he was pitching, Strom was the second pitcher to have Tommy John surgery, back in 1973.

— Celtics 107, Nuggets 103- Exhibition game was played in the basketball hotbed that is Abu Dhabi; Payton Pritchard scored 21 points in 24:00 for Boston.

— Timberwolves 124, Lakers 107
Top three scorers for Minnesota all came off the bench.
Bronny James scored a basket, had an assist in 16:00 (1-6 from floor)
This game was in Palm Springs, CA.
Lakers’ situation is so unusual; Lebron James is still really good, one of the best players in NBA history, but now his son is also on the team, while the Lakers have a new coach (JJ Redick) who has never been a coach at any level. Strange situation.

— A’s 1B/DH Brent Rooker had surgery on his right forearm; the guy hit .293 with 39 homers, 112 RBI while playing with a screwed up arm- he mostly DH’d this season, but is expected to be ready to go for spring training.

— Minnesota Twins VP/general manager Thad Levine is leaving the Twins after eight years; they made the playoffs in four of those eight years, winning three AL Central titles.
Twins went 6-18 in their last 24 games this year and missed the playoffs, but before Levine came to the Twins, Minnesota had missed the playoffs six years in a row.

— Devils 4, Sabres 1- First game of the NHL’s regular season was in Czechoslovakia; rest of the league doesn’t start until Tuesday.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday’s 6-pack:
Active NFL QB’s who have had a game with 500+ passing yards:
— Joe Burrow
— Derek Carr
— Kirk Cousins
— Jared Goff
— Dak Prescott
— Matthew Stafford

Quote of the Day
“This is the dream, right here, and for the next 12 hours, I’m going to enjoy the dream. We’ve got more ahead of us, but this is what Vanderbilt football needs to be about: big wins on big stages. We’re going to go get some more.”
Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea

Sunday’s quiz
Which former Chicago Bears QB threw for 8,697 yards in his college days, playing for Vanderbilt?

Saturday’s quiz
Before the NHL’s Calgary Flames moved to Calgary in 1980, they called Atlanta home.

Friday’s quiz
Washington Redskins drafted Kirk Cousins, in the 4th round of the 2012 draft.

*************************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday…….​

— Vanderbilt 40, Alabama 35
Commodores were a 23-point underdog; huge upset.
Vandy had been 0-60 all-time vs top-5 teams.
Commodores were 12-18 on third down, Alabama 3-7
Vandy QB Pavia was New Mexico State’s QB LY, when the Aggies pulled an upset at Auburn. Now he wins this game, another big upset.
As I type this, there are reports of Vandy students carrying the goalposts from the field down Main Street in Nashville.

— Service academies are on a roll:
Nayy 34, Air Force 7- Navy is 5-0.
Middies outgained Air Force, 463-273
Navy ran ball 49 times for 329 yards (6.7 yards/carry)

Army 49, Tulsa 7
Cadets have won nine games in a row, dating back to last year.
Army was 6-6 passing, for 160 yards.
This is Army’s best start since 1996.
Army-Navy game this year is going to be a very big deal.

— Wake Forest 34, NC State 30
RB Claiborne ran 20 times for 136 yards, two TD’s.
Deacons scored game-winning TD with 1:01 left.
NC State QB McCall got KO’d from this game with a head injury.

— Indiana 41, Northwestern 24
Hoosiers are 6-0 for first time since 1967.
Indiana outscored the Wildcats, 529-336
Indiana QB Rourke was 25-33/380 passing, with three TD’s.

— Minnesota 24, USC 17
Gophers outscored USC 14-0 in 4th quarter.
Minnesota scored game-winning TD with 0:56 left.
Trojans were 7-11 on third down, Gophers 2-8.
USC turned ball over three times (minus-2).

— Arizona State 35, Kansas 31
Sun Devils scored game-winning TD with 0:16 left.
Kansas had taken the lead on a TD with 2:04 left.
Jayhawks are 0-5 vs I-A teams (four losses by 6 or fewer points)

— Upsets of the Week:
Vanderbilt (+23) 40, Alabama 35
Houston (+16.5) 30, TCU 19
UL-Monroe (+16) 21, James Madison 19
Arkansas (+13.5) 19, Tennessee 14
Minnesota (+9.5) 24, USC 17
Charlotte (+8) 55, East Carolina 24
Syracuse (+6.5) 44, UNLV 41, OT
SMU (+6.5) 34, Louisville 27
Wake Forest (+4) 34, NC State 30

— Guardians 7, Tigers 0
Cleveland scored five runs in bottom of the first.
Lane Thomas hit a 3-run HR in his first playoff at-bat.
Guardians still used five pitchers to finish a stress-free win.

— Mets 6, Phillies 2
Zack Wheeler threw 111 pitches, tossed 7 shutout IP
Phillies bullpen threw 58 pitches, allowed 6 runs in 2 IP.
Brandon Nimmo was 2-4, with two RBI.

— New York 6, Royals 5
New York bullpen allow one unearned run in 4 IP.
Verdugo, batting 9th, was 2-3 with two runs scored.
Kansas City pitchers walked eight hitters.

— Dodgers 7, Padres 5
Ohtani was 2-5, with two runs scored, 3 RBI
San Diego led 5-3 after three innings.
Dodger bullpen tossed six shutout IP.

— Famous birthdays, October 6th:
Tony Dungy, 69
Alfredo Griffin, 67
Elisabeth Shue, 61
Ruben Sierra, 59
Jeremy Sisto, 50
Jake Bauers, 29
Bryson Stott, 27
Trevor Lawrence, 25
Kyle Pitts, 24

— UConn 29, Temple 20
UConn led 23-20 with 0:03 left, Temple had ball on UConn’s 1-yard line; not only didn’t Temple score, their QB fumbled and UConn ran the ball back 96 yards for the final margin.

— Western Michigan 45, Ball State 42
RB Nixon ran ball 14 times for 124 yards and three TD’s.
Ball State led 35-31 after three quarters.

— Texas A&M 41, Missouri 10
During the week, Mizzou’s coach caused a stir because the sister of a Texas A&M player is a Mizzou staffer; the coach said he wouldn’t let her watch practice this week, because her brother might be playing QB in this game for the other team.
Texas A&M is 3-0 in the SEC for first time since 2016; the kid didn’t start.
Distractions are a bad thing; Mizzou got blasted in this game, outgained 512-254.

— Oregon 31, Michigan State 10
Andrew Boyle kicked a 50-yard field goal in this game Friday night, Oregon’s first field goal of 50+ yards since 2008.

— Washington 27, Michigan 17
Huskies outscored Michigan 13-0 in 4th quarter.
Washington outgained Wolverines, 429-287.

— Why isn’t Pete Carroll on TV? Guy is a great coach; Nick Saban is on TV, Bill Belichick is on TV and Carroll seems to have a better personality than both of those guys. It is nonsensical.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Sunday, October 6