Top NFL Things To Know
Here We Go Again
Chiefs, Mahomes as Undefeated UnderdogsPatrick Mahomes is 11-3 straight-up as an underdog (12-1-1 ATS). That is the best straight-up (SU) mark as a 'dog in the Super Bowl era for a QB with at least 10 starts. Mahomes’ only ATS loss as an underdog came in 2022 at home against Josh Allen and the Bills, losing 24-20 as a 2.5-point underdog.
This is just the fourth time in the Super Bowl era that a team 9-0 SU or better is listed as an underdog.
Underdogs Rule
Week 10 OutlierUnderdogs finished 11-3 ATS in Week 10. We haven't had an NFL week where 11 or more dogs covered with three or fewer losing ATS since 2017.
Detroit Lions Making History
Lions Peak ExpectationsThe Lions are currently 13-point favorites vs. Jaguars this weekend. Detroit hasn’t closed as this high a favorite since December 1995 as a 13.5-point favorite against, of course, the Jaguars in their inaugural season.
Take the Under
The Sunday Night Football TrendSunday Night Football unders are 8-2 this season. Since the beginning of 2022, they're 35-13 (73%) to the under, going under the total by 4.5 points per game.
Here are the under records in night games by day:
- Sunday: 35-13
- Monday: 30-21
- Saturday: 7-4
- Friday: 0-1
- Thursday: 21-23
Which Teams Will Prove Dominance?
Great Week 11 MatchupsChiefs-Bills
Ravens–Steelers
Commanders–Eagles
For the first time since 2020 and the second time in a decade, we have three matchups in which both teams have a win percentage of 70% or higher in Week 11 or later.
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
*GREEN BAY has won the last 10 SU and ATS vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-5.5 at CHI)
NFL Streaks Betting System #7: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-73 SU but 57-29 ATS (66.3%) as underdogs of 5.5-points or more since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+13 at DET)
The last 23 Monday Night Football games featuring home underdogs have seen Under the total go 18-4-1 (81.8%) as well, games producing just 37.3 PPG.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in HOU-DAL (o/u at 42)
NFL Streaks Betting System #15: NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with a 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS (78.6%) record in their last 14 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs. WAS)
* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 12-1 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
System Match: PLAY UNDER in IND-NYJ (o/u at 43.5)
Play road favorites against divisional opponents coming out of their bye week (Record: 33-16 ATS since 2002, 67.3%, +15.4 Units, 31.4% ROI, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-6 at CHI)
NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 15-15 SU but 7-22-1 ATS (24.1%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-13 vs. JAX)
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is on a 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS skid when coming off an upset loss
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+3.5 at PHI)
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 35-10 SU and 32-12-1 ATS (72.7%).
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-2.5 vs. ATL)
* KANSAS CITY is 15-3 SU and 17-1 ATS in its last 18 games as road underdog
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+2 at BUF)
*GREEN BAY has won the last 10 SU and ATS vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-5.5 at CHI)
NFL Streaks Betting System #7: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-73 SU but 57-29 ATS (66.3%) as underdogs of 5.5-points or more since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+13 at DET)
The last 23 Monday Night Football games featuring home underdogs have seen Under the total go 18-4-1 (81.8%) as well, games producing just 37.3 PPG.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in HOU-DAL (o/u at 42)
NFL Streaks Betting System #15: NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with a 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS (78.6%) record in their last 14 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs. WAS)
* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 12-1 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
System Match: PLAY UNDER in IND-NYJ (o/u at 43.5)
Play road favorites against divisional opponents coming out of their bye week (Record: 33-16 ATS since 2002, 67.3%, +15.4 Units, 31.4% ROI, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-6 at CHI)
NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 15-15 SU but 7-22-1 ATS (24.1%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-13 vs. JAX)
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is on a 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS skid when coming off an upset loss
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+3.5 at PHI)
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 35-10 SU and 32-12-1 ATS (72.7%).
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-2.5 vs. ATL)
* KANSAS CITY is 15-3 SU and 17-1 ATS in its last 18 games as road underdog
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+2 at BUF)
Washington @ Philadelphia -3, Total 49
Commanders are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games as the underdog.OVER is 9-2 Washington’s last 11 games as the underdog.
Commanders are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games, 7-2 SU
OVER is 11-4 Washington’s last 15 games on the road including last 6
OVER is 8-2 past 10 meetings in Philly
OVER is 15-6 Washington’s last 21 games played on a Thursday.
Eagles are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games against Washington.
OVER is 21-8 Philadelphia’s last 29 games at home.
Eagles are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games played on a Thursday.
UNDER is 14-3 Philadelphia’s last 17 games played in Week 11.
WASHINGTON at (314) PHILADELPHIA
* WASHINGTON is 26-9 Over the total when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2011
* WASHINGTON is 18-32 ATS (36%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 15-28 ATS (34.9%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS when coming off a non-conference defeat since 2016
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is on 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS skid when coming off upset loss
Systems Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+3.5 at PHI), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 48.5)
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 15-2 SU and 11-5 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs WAS)
Thursday, Nov. 14
8:20pm ET on Prime Video
Jayden Daniels vs. Jalen Hurts
Home Teams Struggle on Thursday Night
➤Thursday home teams are just 42-55 ATS since 2019, including 38-49 ATS in night Thursday games.Teams playing at home in a night game outside of the Sunday Night Football window are 97-116-3 ATS since 2019. SNF home teams are 60-55 ATS in that span.
Over the last two seasons, games played on a Thursday are 19-10 to the over.
Commanders Late Struggles
➤Executing in the fourth quarter has been a minor issue for Washington this year.- 1Q ATS: 7-3
- 2Q ATS: 7-3
- 3Q ATS: 7-3
- 4Q ATS: 2-8
The A.J. Brown Difference
➤The Eagles have played nine games this season and are 6-0 SU when A.J. Brown has played, averaging 30.2 points per game. When he's been out, they're 1-2 and averaging 17.3 points.The Good and The Bad
➤Eagles haven’t covered the spread in six straight home games, which is their longest streak since failing to cover 10 in a row at home back in 2012-13.➤This will be the 12th home night game that Jalen Hurts will play with the Eagles. He's 8-2-1 ATS in those games, sixth-best of any QB since 2003 — the only QBs ahead of him are Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees.
