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THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
WAS at PHI08:15 PMPHI -3.5
O 48.5
+500 +500
 

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Top NFL Things To Know​

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Here We Go Again​

Chiefs, Mahomes as Undefeated Underdogs
Patrick Mahomes is 11-3 straight-up as an underdog (12-1-1 ATS). That is the best straight-up (SU) mark as a 'dog in the Super Bowl era for a QB with at least 10 starts. Mahomes’ only ATS loss as an underdog came in 2022 at home against Josh Allen and the Bills, losing 24-20 as a 2.5-point underdog.

This is just the fourth time in the Super Bowl era that a team 9-0 SU or better is listed as an underdog.

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Underdogs Rule​

Week 10 Outlier
Underdogs finished 11-3 ATS in Week 10. We haven't had an NFL week where 11 or more dogs covered with three or fewer losing ATS since 2017.


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Detroit Lions Making History​

Lions Peak Expectations
The Lions are currently 13-point favorites vs. Jaguars this weekend. Detroit hasn’t closed as this high a favorite since December 1995 as a 13.5-point favorite against, of course, the Jaguars in their inaugural season.

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Take the Under​

The Sunday Night Football Trend
Sunday Night Football unders are 8-2 this season. Since the beginning of 2022, they're 35-13 (73%) to the under, going under the total by 4.5 points per game.

Here are the under records in night games by day:

  • Sunday: 35-13
  • Monday: 30-21
  • Saturday: 7-4
  • Friday: 0-1
  • Thursday: 21-23


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Which Teams Will Prove Dominance?​

Great Week 11 Matchups
Chiefs-Bills
Ravens–Steelers
Commanders–Eagles

For the first time since 2020 and the second time in a decade, we have three matchups in which both teams have a win percentage of 70% or higher in Week 11 or later.
 

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These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

*GREEN BAY has won the last 10 SU and ATS vs. Chicago
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (-5.5 at CHI)

NFL Streaks Betting System #7: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-73 SU but 57-29 ATS (66.3%) as underdogs of 5.5-points or more since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+13 at DET)

The last 23 Monday Night Football games featuring home underdogs have seen Under the total go 18-4-1 (81.8%) as well, games producing just 37.3 PPG.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in HOU-DAL (o/u at 42)

NFL Streaks Betting System #15: NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with a 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS (78.6%) record in their last 14 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs. WAS)

* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 12-1 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
System Match: PLAY UNDER in IND-NYJ (o/u at 43.5)

Play road favorites against divisional opponents coming out of their bye week (Record: 33-16 ATS since 2002, 67.3%, +15.4 Units, 31.4% ROI, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-6 at CHI)

NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 15-15 SU but 7-22-1 ATS (24.1%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-13 vs. JAX)

* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is on a 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS skid when coming off an upset loss
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+3.5 at PHI)

Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 35-10 SU and 32-12-1 ATS (72.7%).
System Match: PLAY DENVER (-2.5 vs. ATL)

* KANSAS CITY is 15-3 SU and 17-1 ATS in its last 18 games as road underdog
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+2 at BUF)
 

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Washington @ Philadelphia -3, Total 49​

Commanders are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games as the underdog.

OVER is 9-2 Washington’s last 11 games as the underdog.

Commanders are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games, 7-2 SU

OVER is 11-4 Washington’s last 15 games on the road including last 6

OVER is 8-2 past 10 meetings in Philly

OVER is 15-6 Washington’s last 21 games played on a Thursday.

Eagles are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games against Washington.

OVER is 21-8 Philadelphia’s last 29 games at home.

Eagles are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games played on a Thursday.

UNDER is 14-3 Philadelphia’s last 17 games played in Week 11.

WASHINGTON at (314) PHILADELPHIA

* WASHINGTON is 26-9 Over the total when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2011
* WASHINGTON is 18-32 ATS (36%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 15-28 ATS (34.9%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS when coming off a non-conference defeat since 2016
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is on 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS skid when coming off upset loss
Systems Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+3.5 at PHI), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 48.5)

* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 15-2 SU and 11-5 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs WAS)
 

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Thursday, Nov. 14
8:20pm ET on Prime Video
Jayden Daniels vs. Jalen Hurts
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Home Teams Struggle on Thursday Night​

➤Thursday home teams are just 42-55 ATS since 2019, including 38-49 ATS in night Thursday games.

Teams playing at home in a night game outside of the Sunday Night Football window are 97-116-3 ATS since 2019. SNF home teams are 60-55 ATS in that span.

Over the last two seasons, games played on a Thursday are 19-10 to the over.

Commanders Late Struggles​

➤Executing in the fourth quarter has been a minor issue for Washington this year.

  • 1Q ATS: 7-3
  • 2Q ATS: 7-3
  • 3Q ATS: 7-3
  • 4Q ATS: 2-8

The A.J. Brown Difference​

➤The Eagles have played nine games this season and are 6-0 SU when A.J. Brown has played, averaging 30.2 points per game. When he's been out, they're 1-2 and averaging 17.3 points.

The Good and The Bad​

➤Eagles haven’t covered the spread in six straight home games, which is their longest streak since failing to cover 10 in a row at home back in 2012-13.
➤This will be the 12th home night game that Jalen Hurts will play with the Eagles. He's 8-2-1 ATS in those games, sixth-best of any QB since 2003 — the only QBs ahead of him are Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees.

So Good It Hurts​

➤Lately we’ve seen a great Jalen Hurts. In his last five games, the Eagles are 5-0 SU and he's second in EPA/play, Y/A and success rate, and he's first in CPOE with 16 total TDs and one INTs.

Never Safe​

➤When the Eagles lead, they’ve had issues holding and covering. In the last two seasons, when Philly is a favorite and leads by 10 or more points at any point in the game, they're still just 6-6-2 ATS. That's tied with the Titans for the lowest ATS mark for teams in that situation.
 

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Great information. Thank you.
 

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NFL BEST BETS FOR NOVEMBER !

11142024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/11/2024...................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/10/2024.................3 - 14 - 0.....................17.64%......................- 62.00
11/07/2024...................2 - 0 - 0...................100.00%......................+ 10.00
11/04/2024...................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/03/2024...................9 - 5 - 1.....................64.28%......................+ 17.50

TOTALS......................17 - 22 - 1.....................43.58%......................- 36.00
 

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Friday’s 6-pack:
Six college basketball teams with most experience in country:
1- Ole Miss
2- Kansas
3- Xavier
4- Kentucky
5- Nevada
6- Memphis

Quote of the Day
“I’m kind of an asshole when I’m bored. I don’t have enough hobbies. I just think I can be irritable. … For me, I don’t know how I’d be not having a team, not having a purpose for a year. And if there’s a couple opportunities, or an opportunity that kind of grabs my heart, then I need to take advantage of that.”
DePaul basketball coach Chris Holtmann, on why he took over a struggling program

Friday’s quiz
Who was head coach of the Washington Redskins/Commanders last time they won a playoff game?

Thursday’s quiz
Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels played college football for Arizona State and LSU.

Wednesday’s quiz
Klay Thompson played his college basketball at Washington State

******************************************

Friday’s Den: College basketball knowledge.…….

College basketball teams that will be interesting to follow this year…….

— Connecticut
UConn won last two national titles, winning title games by 17-15 points.
Huskies were first team since Florida (2006/2007) to win consecutive titles.
Last team to win 3+ consecutive national titles? UCLA, from 1967-73
UConn lost four starters from LY; they’re #199 in experience this year.

— Arkansas
Hard to process, but John Calipari is now the Arkansas coach.
Arkansas was in 3 of last 4 NCAA’s, making two Elite 8’s and a Sweet 16 under Eric Musselman.
Calipari hasn’t made the Sweet 16 since 2019.
Hogs are #232 in experience, #327 in continuity; Calipari is used to that.

— USC
Speaking of Musselman, he is now the Trojans’ coach, as they join the Big 18.
This year’s Trojans are #31 in experience, #349 in continuity; 10 transfers.
USC is 3-0; they struggled to beat Texas-Arlington 98-95 Wednesday.

— Southern Methodist
Andy Enfield bolted USC for SMU and ACC; Dallas is nowhere near the Atlantic Ocean.
Mustangs are #29 in experience, #209 in continuity; Enfield’s teams usually defend well.
So far, SMU scored 93 ppg in beating three stiffs (schedule #331)

Whats left of the Pac-12? (they’re playing in WCC this year)
Oregon State went 11-49 in Pac-12 the last three years, after an Elite 8 in 2021.
Seven players bolted the Beavers’ program after last season.
This year, OSU is 3-0 vs schedule #322; they’ve continuity team #260.

Washington State
New league, new coach, new players after Coogs went 25-10 last year.
David Riley is the new coach; he went 31-5 in the Big Sky last two years.
Wazzu has only one guy back from LY; they’ve scored 97 ppg in a 3-0 start.

— Villanova
Wildcats made Final Four three years ago, then Jay Wright abruptly retired.
Since then, Villanova is 37-35, 20-20 in conference games, 0-0 in NCAA’s.
This year, Villanova is #34 in experience, #261 in continuity; lot of transfers.
Wildcats are 2-2 this year, with losses to Columbia/St Joe’s. No bueno.

Famous birthdays, November 15th:
Sam Waterston, 84
Bob Dandridge, 77
Greg Anthony, 57
Sasha Pavlovic, 41
Asia Kate Dillon, 40
Trevor Story, 32
Karl-Anthony Towns, 29
Wyatt Langford, 23

— Fresno State
68-year old Vance Walberg is the coach; he coached Pepperdine (2006-08), was an NBA assistant for four years, was a high school coach the last eight years, at a school five miles from the Fresno State campus.
Fresno hasn’t been in NCAAs since 2016; they’ve got only two players back from last year, but Walberg recruiting last year’s junior college player of the year, so they’ve got talent. Bulldogs lost an 82-possession game 91-86 in Santa Barbara Wednesday. Walberg’s teams play fast.

— Seton Hall
Shaheen Holloway led Saint Peter’s to the Elite 8 three years ago; his 2nd Seton Hall team was 25-12 last year, 13-7 in Big East but they didn’t make the NCAA’s.
So far this year, Seton Hall has scored only 53.7 ppg in a 1-2 start, losing to Fordham/Hofstra. Pirates are experience team #88, continuity team #240; they’ve got three top 100 games before Big East play starts December 17.

— Louisville
Pat Kelsey is Louisville’s 5th coach in nine years; they went 11-49 in the ACC the last three years and haven’t made the NCAA’s since 2019. Kelsey’s teams have been in three of last four NCAA tournaments, at Winthrop/Charleston— his teams play fast.
This year’s Cardinals are experience team #9, continuity team #350— Kelsey pounded the transfer portal. Louisville split its first two games, forcing turnovers 28.9% of the time. Won’t be long before Louisville is back in the field of 68.

— St John’s
Rick Pitino was Louisville’s coach the last time they won an NCAA game, in 2017.
St John’s hasn’t won an NCAA game since 2000; this year’s Red Storm is experience team #91, continuity team #264- they’ve beaten three stiffs, by 32-23-21 points.
Pitin0 is a great coach; he plays his son’s New Mexico team Sunday, then has three more top 100 games before Big East games start. Chances are St John’s will be in March Madness for the first time since 2019.

— Richard Pitino’s New Mexico Lobos are playing the fastest tempo in America so far this year; Lobos are 3-0 with a win over UCLA- they’ve forced turnovers 24.6% of time (#30). Lobos were in NCAA’s last year for first time since 2014.

— Siena had its first losing season in six years last year, but they fired the coach anyway and hired Syracuse assistant Gerry McNamara- the rumor was he could add some boosters to help Siena’s NIL situation, which wasn’t good.
McNamara’s best recruit might be special assistant Brian Beaury, who won 654 games at St Rose, a Division II team in Albany (the school went out of business LY). Beaury is a great coach who will help a rookie head coach.
Siena is off to a 3-0 start, beating Brown/Bryant in overtime; they’re #19 in country on offensive boards, #301 on the defensive end. Saints are #349 in experience, #331 in continuity.

— Steve Alford’s Nevada Wolf Pack is #5 in experience, #107 in continuity; they’ve scored 80.7 ppg in their 3-0 start, making 49.1% of their 3’s, best in the country so far. Nevada was 25-11 in the Mountain West the last two years and figure to contend there again this year.
 

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Saturday’s 6-pack:
Six college basketball teams playing the fastest tempo so far:
1- New Mexico
2- Portland State
3- Arizona
4- Kennesaw State
5- Bryant
6- Cal-Northridge

Quote of the Day
“It is your character, and your character alone, that will make your life happy or unhappy. That is all that really passes for destiny…..…others can encourage you to make the right choices or discourage you, but you choose.”
John McCain

Saturday’s quiz
From 1967-73, UCLA won March Madness every year; what team beat them and ended their streak in the 1974 national semi-finals?

Friday’s quiz
Joe Gibbs was head coach of the Washington Redskins/Commanders last time they won a playoff game, in 2005; Mark Brunell was the QB.

Thursday’s quiz
Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels played college football for Arizona State and LSU.

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Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a fall Friday…….

— Marquette 78, Maryland 74
Maryland led by six points early in second half.
Visiting Marquette was 18-24 on foul line, Terps were 9-14.
Marquette played nine guys double figure minutes; quality depth.

— Purdue 87, Alabama 78
Alabama was 9-29 on the arc, Purdue 9-16
Crimson Tide led by 6 with 11:00 left in game.
Purdue only had 3 turnovers in a 68-possession game.

— Virginia 70, Villanova 60
Cavaliers made 14-25 shots behind the arc. Impressive.
Virginia didn’t play any seniors in this game.
Villanova started five seniors; they’re 0-3 vs teams in the top 250.

— Butler 81, SMU 70
Butler shot 46.2% on the arc, 37.1% inside the arc.
Bulldogs had six players score in double figures.
SMU’s Harris scored 21 points in 30:00; he didn’t start.

— Florida 87, Florida State 74
Gators shot 66.7% inside arc.
Senior G Clayton was 4-10 on arc, scored 25 points.
Florida has a 7-foot-9 freshman who will redshirt this year. 7-foot-9.

— Michigan 76, TCU 64
Wolverines won despite being minus-9 (21-12) in turnovers.
TCU shot 34.4% from the floor, scored 0.88 points/possession.
Horned Frogs are #90 in experience, #330 in continuity; lot of transfers.

— Charleston 119, Florida Atlantic 116, 2OT
Charleston led by 13 with 6:47 left in regulation.
Cougars were 15-30 on arc; FAU was 16-29.
93-possession game; five guys who didn’t start scored in double figures.

— Tennessee-Martin and Oregon State have the most foreign players on their team this season; both teams have players from nine different countries.

Famous birthdays, November 16th:
Herb Washington, 73
Marg Helgenberger, 66
Dwight Gooden, 60
Maggie Gyllenhaal, 47
Amare Stoudemire, 42
Denzel Valentine, 31
Jason Sanders, 29
Grayson Rodriguez, 25

— Colorado State 24, Wyoming 10
Favored Rams led 14-0 after the first quarter.
Colorado State is 7-3, 5-0 in Mountain West games.
Rams averaged 11 yards/pass attempt.

— Texas-San Antonio 48, North Texas 27
Roadrunners led 27-7 at halftime.
There were five TD plays of 39+ yards in this game.
Both teams are 5-5, both need a win to be bowl eligible.

— East Carolina 38, Tulsa 31
ECU scored two TD’s in last 5:30 of game; they’re 6-4 and bowl eligible.
Pirates ran ball for 222 yards, survived having 125 penalty yards.

Movie of the Day: The Verdict (1982)- An alcoholic lawyer sees the chance to salvage his career and self-respect by taking a medical malpractice case to trial rather than settling, even though his client was offered a hefty settlement.
Paul Newman is the lawyer, Jack Warden is his friend, James Mason is the opposing lawyer.
Very good movie, albeit a little dated now. Paul Newman’s character plays pinball on those cool old-fashioned pinball machines that used to be in bars.

— Tampa Bay Rays will play next season in Tampa, but at the spring training home of the Bronx Bombers. Rays actually have to pay their division rivals $15M to use the facility, because Tropicana Field was wrecked by by a hurricane last month.

— Los Angeles Angels added utility man Kevin Newman for one year, $2.5M; they’ve also added P Kyle Hendricks, C Travis d’Arnaud- they’ve been the busiest baseball team this off-season.

— Pitcher Cole Irvin signed a $1M contract with the Doosan Bears of the KBO; $1M is the most a first-year player can make in Korea.
Irvin is 28-40, 4.54 in 93 MLB starts over six seasons for four teams.

— Cal Poly in the Big West appears to be a vastly improved team; they went 65-202 the last nine years, going 4-65 in conference games the last four years, but the 2-2 so far this year, with 75-71 win over Seattle, plus respectable losses to San Francisco, Cal.
Mike DeGeorge is the new coach; his teams play a faster style, which should help recruiting.

— Mentioned on Tuesday how November 13 was Felix Unger Day, in reference to the great TV show The Odd Couple. Turns out that Garry Marshall’s birthday was November 13; he was one of the show’s writers, and a creative genius with an amazing resume of movies to his credit.

Eagles 26, Commanders 18
Commanders led 10-6 after the third quarter.
Eagles’ first five drives: 30 plays, 177 yards, no points.
Eagles rest of game: 43 plays, 350 yards, 26 points.
Eagles won 12 of last 14 series games.
Philly was 9-16 on third down, Commanders 3-12.
Eagles outgained Washington, 434-264
Last five games, Washington was outscored 67-36 in 2nd half.
Commanders are 4-7 ATS in last 11 NFC East road games.
 

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Armadillo Sports

Sunday’s 6-pack:
Six highest-paid pitchers last season
:
— Max Scherzer
— Justin Verlander
— Jacob deGrom
— Gerrit Cole
— Patrick Corbin
— Steven Strasburg

Those six pitchers combined to make $233M this year, but won only 21 games.

Quote of the Day
“Yes. Without hesitation, yes. He has something you can’t draw up, reminds me a lot of our other tight end, he’s the head coach up at Detroit right now.”
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, touting Jason Witten as a potential NFL coach

Sunday’s quiz
Who was UNLV’s football coach the last time they won a bowl game?
Hint: He also was a head coach in the NFL

Saturday’s quiz
From 1967-73, UCLA won March Madness every year; in 1974, NC State beat them at the Final Four and ended their streak.

Friday’s quiz
Joe Gibbs was head coach of the Washington Redskins/Commanders last time they won a playoff game, in 2005; Mark Brunell was the QB.

************************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….

— Georgia 31, Tennessee 17

Tennessee led 10-0 after the first quarter.
Game was 17-17 at half; Vols didn’t score in 2nd half.
Vols were 10-17 on third down, Georgia 8-13.
Dawgs have now won eight in a row against Tennessee.

— Clemson 24, Pittsburgh 20
QB Klubnik ran 50 yards for game-winning TD with 1:16 left.
Up to that point, Clemson had 8 yards rushing for the whole game.
Clemson led 17-7 at halftime.
WR Williams caught 13 passes for 149 yards, two TD’s.

— Oregon 16, Wisconsin 13
Ducks kicked a 24-yard field goal with 2:36 left.
Wisconsin led this game 10-6 at halftime.
Oregon outgained the Badgers, 354-226.

— USC 28, Nebraska 20
QB Maiava threw for 259 yards, 3 TD’s in his first start for USC.
Nebraska was on USC’s 5-yard line in the last few seconds, but didn’t score.
Both teams are 5-5, need a win to become bowl eligible.
Nebraska hasn’t been to a bowl since 2016; they’ve lost their last eight games that could’ve made them bowl eligible, with seven of those losses by 8 or fewer points.

— Stanford 38, Louisville 35
Stanford kicked a 52-yard field goal as time expired.
Cardinal’s win snaps a six-game losing skid.
Louisville led 35-21 with 7:00 left in the game.

— South Carolina 34, Missouri 30
QB Sellers ran 15 yards for game-winning TD with 0:15 left.
Mizzou had taken lead on a 37-yard TD pass with 1:10 left.
Gamecocks averaged 11.8 yards/pass attempt.

— Florida 27, LSU 16
Game was 10-10 at halftime.
Gators had lost five games in a row against LSU.
LSU lost its third straight game overall, by 15-29-11 points.

Upsets of the Week:
Stanford (+20.5) 38, Louisville 35
Louisiana Tech (+12.5) 12, Western Kentucky 7
New Mexico (+11.5) 38, Washington State 35

Syracuse (+10) 33, California 25
Arizona State (+7.5) 24, Kansas State 14
Troy (+7.5) 28, Georgia Southern 20

South Alabama (+7) 24, Louisiana 22
Rutgers (+5.5) 31, Maryland 17
Florida (+3.5) 27, LSU 16

— Temple 18, Florida Atlantic 15 OT
FAU led 7-6 after the third quarter.
Temple kicker Trujillo made four field goals.
FAU forced OT on a TD/2-point play with 0:34 left.

— Sam Houston 23, Kennesaw State 17 OT
8-2 Bearkats outgained 1-9 Kennesaw 382-243.
San Houston was 8-17 on third down, Owls 3-13.
Kennesaw tied game on a 9-yard TD pass with 0:25 left.

— SMU 38, Boston College 28
Surprising Mustangs improve to 9-1, with seven straight wins.
QB Jennings threw for 298 yards, three TD’s.
Boston College QB James threw for 237 yards in his first college start.

— Baylor 49, West Virginia 35
Hope you bet the over; it was 35-28 at halftime.
Baylor won its 4th straight game, scoring 59-38-37-49 points.
This was Baylor’s first win in seven visits to Morgantown.

— Liberty 35, UMass 34, OT
UMass led 20-7 at halftime.
Minutemen missed a 43-yard FG at end of regulation.
UMass scored first in OT, but missed the PAT.

— Famous birthdays, November 17
Martin Scorsese, 82
Lauren Hutton, 81
Danny DeVito, 80

Adrian Branch, 61
Reggie Wayne, 46
Nick Markakis, 41

Ryan Braun, 41
Seth Lugo, 35
Minkah Fitzpatrick, 28

College basketball from Saturday…….
— Missouri State 111, Tulsa 106, 3OT
Bears were 32-51 on foul line, Tulsa 30-44.
Tulsa led by 5 points in the first OT.
Martin scored 18 points in 44:00 for Missouri State; he didn’t start.

— Bucknell 80, Richmond 76, 2OT
Richmond led 35-14 late in first half.
Spiders are 0-3 vs D-I teams, shooting 23.9% on the arc.

— Radford 92, Evansville 81
Purple Aces led 50-28 late in first half.
Evansville shot 17-35 on the arc, Radford 10-19.

— East Carolina 78, George Mason 77, 2OT
ECU was down 75-71 with 2:17 left in 2nd overtime.
East Carolina had 24 offensive rebounds; they only played 7 guys more than 5:00

— Syracuse 104, Youngstown State 95, 2OT
Penguins led by 9 early in second half.
Teams combined to shoot 13-53 on the arc.
 

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SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 17

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
CLE at NO01:00 PMNO +1.5
O 44.0
+500 +500
BAL at PIT01:00 PMPIT +3.0
O 48.5
+500 +500
LV at MIA01:00 PMLV +7.5
O 44.0
+500 +500
IND at NYJ01:00 PMIND +4.0
U 43.5
+500 +500
MIN at TEN01:00 PMMIN -6.0
U 40.0
+500 +500
GB at CHI01:00 PMGB -6.0
U 40.5
+500 +500
JAC at DET01:00 PMJAC +14.0
O 47.0
+500 +500
LA at NE01:00 PMNE +4.0
U 43.0
+500 +500
SEA at SF04:05 PMSF -6.0
U 49.0
+500 +500
ATL at DEN04:05 PMDEN -2.0
U 45.0
+500 +500
KC at BUF04:25 PMBUF -2.0
O 46.5
+500 +500
CIN at LAC08:20 PMCIN +1.0
O 48.5
+500 +500
 

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Westgate NFL SuperContest Picks, Odds & Standings from Las Vegas​

2024 WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERCONTEST WEEK 11 11/12/24 – 11/18/24
OFFICIAL LINES/ODDS FOR WEEK 11WEEK 11 PICKS BY # OF TEAMS SELECTED
HOME TEAM IN CAPS

EAGLES -3.5 vs. Commanders
Packers -5 vs. BEARS
SAINTS -1 vs. Browns
Rams -4.5 vs. PATRIOTS
Ravens -3 vs. STEELERS
DOLPHINS -7 vs. Raiders
LIONS -14 vs. Jaguars
Vikings -6 vs. TITANS
49ERS-6.5 vs. Seahawks
BRONCOS -2.5 vs. Falcons
BILLS -2.5 vs. Chiefs
CHARGERS -1.5 vs. Bengals
NY JETS -4 vs. Colts
Texans -7 vs. COWBOYS
CLE 393
GB 379
CIN 359
DEN 324
PIT 317

KC 281
BUF 240
IND 227
LAR 216
MIA 209
BAL 205
ATL 203
LAC 193
DET 187
HOU 172
SF 171




TOP 5 YTD RECORD
22-27-1
MIN 171
SEA 168
TEN 166
NE 156
NO 146
JAX 135
DAL 111
CHI 100
PHI 89
LV 82
NYJ 81
WAS 54
TB 0
ARI 0
NYG 0
CAR 0




RECORD LAST WEEK
2-3
TOP 10 SUPERCONTEST PLAYER PICKS AND STANDING
MAYBE TOMORROW 4 – W35 L14 LW 4-1
Week 11 Picks: GB NO LV ATL IND
2ND AND 20 – W34 L14 LW 3-2
Week 11 Picks: NO LV TEN SEA HOU
TA2 RG – W34 L15 LW 4-1
Week 11 Picks: MIA DET SF DEN IND
MEYER LANDSCAPING – W34 L15 LW 2-3
Week 11 Picks: PHI GB NO MIA DEN
RAIDERNATION 2 – W34 L15 LW 2-3
Week 11 Picks: WAS BAL MIA ATL IND
 

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NFL BEST BETS FOR NOVEMBER !

11/17/2024...................10 - 8 - 0....................55.55%......................+ 6.00
11/14/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/11/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/10/2024...................3 - 14 - 0.....................17.64%......................- 62.00
11/07/2024......................2 - 0 - 0...................100.00%......................+ 10.00
11/04/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/03/2024.....................9 - 5 - 1.....................64.28%......................+ 17.50

TOTALS........................27 - 30 - 1.....................47.36%......................- 30.00
 

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Armadillo Sports

Monday’s 6-pack:
St John’s 85, New Mexico 71- Rick Pitino’s team out-rebounded his son’s team, 49-32.
California 71, USC 66- Former Pac-12 rivals met, shot a combined 12-42 on the arc.
Hawai’i 73, Weber State 68 OT- Weber led by 10 points early in second half.
Saint Mary’s 77, Nebraska 74- Gaels were 11-25 on arc, Nebraska 5-17.
Boise State 84, Clemson 71- Good win for the Mountain West here.
Cal Poly 82, Eastern Washington 78- Good win for much-improved Mustangs.

Quote of the Day
“Forget the minutiae of what it is you do. You better play hard, fast and together or you have no shot.”
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin

Monday’s quiz
In the TV show Las Vegas, what well-known actress played James Caan’s wife?

Sunday’s quiz
John Robinson was UNLV’s football coach the last time they won a bowl game, in 2000.

Saturday’s quiz
From 1967-73, UCLA won March Madness every year; in 1974, NC State beat them at the Final Four and ended their streak.

*********************************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…..

Packers 20, Bears 19

Packers blocked a 46-yard FG on last play of the game.
Green Bay drove 78 yards, scored game-winning TD with 2:59 left.
Packers’ last three drives: 17 plays, 218 yards, 14 points.
Packers are 9-7 ATS in last 16 NFC North road games.

Bears were 9-16 on third down, Green Bay 1-5.
Packers averaged 14.4 yards/pass attempt.
Bears lost last four games, scoring 15-9-3-19 points.
Green Bay won last 12 series games (10-2 ATS)

Steelers 18, Ravens 16
Steelers won/covered their last five games.
Pittsburgh didn’t score a TD; they kicked six field goals.
Steelers are 18-7-1 ATS in last 26 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Since 2014, Steelers are 13-5-2 ATS as a home underdog.

Baltimore had 3 turnovers, plus 12 penalties for 80 yards.
Derrick Henry has scored at least one TD in every game this year.
Pittsburgh won eight of last nine series games.
Under is 7-0 in last six meetings.

Rams 28, Patriots 22
Rams’ first two drives: 9 plays, 69 yards, no points.
Rams’ next five drives: 30 plays, 296 yards, 28 points.
Rams won four of their last five games.
Rams are 4-0 scoring 26+ points, 1-5 scoring less than 26.

QB Maye was 30-40/282 passing, with two TD’s.
NE is 10-21-1 ATS in last 32 games as an underdog.
Patriots are 32-47 since Tom Brady left town.
Over is 4-1 in New England’s home games.

Colts 28, Jets 27
Colts drove 70 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:46 left.
Indy’s last two drives: 14 plays, 140 yards, 14 points.
QB Richardson threw for 272 yards, ran for 32 more.
Colts outgained the Jets, 332-253.

Jets’ first five drives: 16 plays, 27 yards, no points.
Jets rest of game: 38 plays, 223 yards, 27 points.
Jets are 1-7 SU/ATS in their last eight games.
Jets are 0-7 if they allow 27+ points.

Saints 35, Browns 14
Game was 14-14 after the third quarter.
Saints were 5-10 on third down, Cleveland 3-13.
Cleveland lost seven of its last eight games.
Browns scored 18 or fewer points in nine of 10 games.

New Orleans is 2-0 since they changed coaches.
Saints ran ball for 214 yards, threw for 259 more.
Saints’ last three drives of game: 17 plays, 185 yards, 21 points.
Taysom Hill ran seven times for 138 yards, 3 TD’s.

Vikings 23, Titans 13
Vikings’ first four drives: 33 plays, 187 yards, 16 points.
Minnesota won its last three games, giving up 13-7-13 points.
Minnesota is 7-2-2 ATS in last eleven games as road favorite.
NFC North favorites are 16-9 ATS in non-divisional games.

Titans’ first six drives: 34 plays, 93 yards, 3 points.
Tennessee ran ball 19 times for only 33 yards.
QB Levis is 4-12 as an NFL starter.
Tennessee is 1-6 ATS in last seven games coming off a loss.

Famous birthdays, November 18
Brenda Vaccaro, 85
Linda Evans, 82
Glenn Carano, 69

Warren Moon, 68
Owen Wilson, 56
Gary Sheffield, 56

Sam Cassell, 55
David Ortiz, 49
Jameson Taillon, 33

Cory Littleton, 31
Shea Langeliers, 27
Caleb Williams, 23

Lions 52, Jaguars 6
Lions scored a touchdown on their first six drives.
Detroit won its last eight games (7-1 ATS).
Last three games, Lions outscored opponents 67-11 in 2nd half.
Under Campbell, Lions are 13-5 ATS as a home favorite.

Detroit led 28-6 at halftime.
Detroit converted 6-10 third down plays, 3-3 on fourth down.
Lions ran 76 plays for 645 yards, Jaguars 47 plays for 170.
First time in five games Jacksonville didn’t cover the spread.

Dolphins 34, Raiders 19
Miami’s lead was only 17-12 after third quarter.
Miami in second half: 32 plays, 226 yards, 3 TDs and a FG.
Dolphins converted 8-12 third down plays, 2-2 on 4th down.
Last four games, Miami is 29-48 on 3rd down.

Last six games, Las Vegas is 0-6 SU/2-4 ATS.
Last seven games, Raiders averaged 5.8 or fewer yards/pass attempt.
QB Minshew is 17-28 as an NFL starter.
TE Bowers caught 13 passes for 126 yards and a TD.

Broncos 38, Falcons 6
Denver’s first five drives: 41 plays, 262 yards, 28 points.
QB Nix was 28-33/307 passing, with four TD’s.
Broncos outgained Atlanta, 400-226.
Denver is 5-0 if they score more than 20 points, 1-5 if they score 20 or less.

Atlanta kicked field goals on two of first three drives.
Falcons in second half: 28 plays, 77 yards, no points.
Falcons were held to 17 or fewer points in their five losses.
Falcons are 7-15 ATS last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Seahawks 20, 49ers 17
Seahawks drove 80 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:12 left.
Seattle is 5-0 when it allows 20 or less points, 0-5 when it allows more.
Seattle scored two TD’s on last three drives: 31 plays, 183 yards, 14 points.
Seahawks snapped a six-game losing skid against San Francisco.

San Francisco lost three of last four home games.
49ers are 2-4 in games decided by six or fewer points.
49ers are 2-5 when they run ball for less than 180 yards.
San Francisco held its last three opponents under 300 yards.

Bills 30, Chiefs 21
Leading 16-14, Bills scored TDs on last two drives: 22 plays, 153 yards.
Bills outgained Chiefs 366-259, converted 9-15 on third down.
Buffalo won its last six games overall (5-1 ATS)
Bills are 18-5-1 ATS in last 24 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Bills are first team since Week 1 to gain more than 320 yards vs KC.
Last four games, Chiefs were held to 85.3 rushing yards/game.
Chiefs are 12-20 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
Chiefs still lead AFC West by two games; Bills lead AFC East by 4.5 games.

Chargers 31, Bengals 24
Chargers led 24-6 at halftime, 27-6 early in third quarter.
Bengals tied game with 3 TD’s in a row: 21 plays, 191 yards, 21 points.
With game 27-27, McPherson missed two FG’s in 4th quarter.
Chargers drove 84 yards in four plays, scored game-winning TD with 0:18 left.

Bengals gave up 35+ points in their last five losses.
Cincinnati is 1-6 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Over is 8-2 in Cincinnati’s last ten games.
Chargers won a close game, but they’ve still lost ten games in a row that were decided by 3 or fewer points.
 

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MONDAY, NOVEMBER 18

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
HOU at DAL08:15 PMDAL +7.5
O 41.0
+500 +500
 

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Messages
106,205
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NFL BEST BETS FOR NOVEMBER !

11/18/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/17/2024...................10 - 8 - 0....................55.55%......................+ 6.00
11/14/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/11/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/10/2024...................3 - 14 - 0.....................17.64%......................- 62.00
11/07/2024......................2 - 0 - 0...................100.00%......................+ 10.00
11/04/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/03/2024.....................9 - 5 - 1.....................64.28%......................+ 17.50

TOTALS........................28 - 31 - 1.....................47.45%......................- 30.50
 

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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Leading scorers in country in college basketball:
28.3— TY Johnson, Cal-Davis
27.5— Ante Brzovic, Charleston
25.8— Ketron Shaw, Md-Eastern Shore
25.8— Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton
25.8— Anthony Roy, Green Bay
25.8— Jaron Pierre, Jacksonville State

Quote of the Day
“I think you got to be really, really careful when you start pointing fingers at certain people. That’s a dangerous thing, and I’m not going to do that. Not doing it. Not right now. As a head coach in this league that’s going through what we’re going through, you’re pointing a finger. And if it needs to be pointed, it needs to be pointed at me. Start with me. That’s enough on that.”
Jaguars coach Doug Pederson

Tuesday’s quiz
Who was the Dallas Cowboys’ coach the last time they won a Super Bowl?

Monday’s quiz
In the TV show Las Vegas, Cheryl Ladd played James Caan’s wife.

Sunday’s quiz
John Robinson was UNLV’s football coach the last time they won a bowl game, in 2000.

******************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but………

Texans 34, Cowboys 10
Texans led 17-10 at half, outscored Dallas 17-0 in 2nd half.
RB Mixon ran ball 20 times for 109 yards, three TD’s.
Houston’s opponents’ team total: under 5-1-1 last seven games.
Houston is 9-4 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.
Cowboys were 5-15 on third down, 0-4 on fourth down.
Dallas lost last five games, giving up 47-30-27-34-34 points.
Cowboys are 0-7 when they allow more than 17 points.
Since 2021, Dallas is 1-5 ATS as a home underdog.

— New Jersey Giants benched QB Daniel Jones Monday, naming Tommy DeVito the starter for this week’s game vs Tampa Bay, with Drew Lock named as the backup.
DeVito went 3-3 as the Giants’ starter last year; Jones was 25-45-1 as the Giants’ QB, 3-13 the last two years, after he went 9-6-1 in 2022, with a playoff win at Minnesota. He is making $40M a year, but looks like he’ll be elsewhere next season.

— Gonzaga 80, San Diego State 67
Senior G Nembhard had 19 points, 10 assists.
San Diego State shot only 37.7% from the floor.
Zags have 7 of their top 8 scorers back from last year.

— Khalif Battle is a senior guard for Gonzaga; he is 23 years old and has had an interesting trip thru college basketball.
2019-20- Started his career at Butler, playing around 8 minutes/game for a 22-9 Butler squad.
2020-23- Started for three years at Temple, playing 26 mpg two years ago; Owls went 38-39 those three years, 24-25 in conference games.
2023-24- He played at Arkansas LY, playing 24 mpg or so for the 16-17 Razorbacks, who were 6-12 in the SEC.
2024-25- Now he is at Gonzaga, a top-5 team in the country; he scored 17.3 ppg in the Zags’ first three games, had xx points against the Aztecs Monday night.

— Florida Atlantic fired football coach Tom Herman on Monday with two games left in his second season at FAU; Owls were 4-8 last year, are 2-8 this season.
UMass fired football coach Don Brown Monday; Minutemen went 6-28 the last three years. UMass plays Georgia this week, bad news for interim coach Shane Montgomery. Brown had led UMass to the I-AA national title game in 2006, but I-A is a much tougher gig.

— Indiana signed football coach Curt Cignetti to an 8-year contract worth $8M/year, which is what happens when you’re still unbeaten in November. Cignetti went 52-9 in five years at James Madison, before moving on to the Hoosiers this year, bring 13 players with him from JMU.

— There are three unbeaten teams left in college football: Army, Indiana, Oregon.
Go figure.

Famous birthdays, November 19
Ahmad Rashad, 75
Richard Todd, 71
Allison Janney, 65
Meg Ryan, 63
Gary Disarcina, 57
Justin Duchscherer, 47
Ryan Howard, 45
Adam Driver, 41
Framber Valdez, 31
Joey Gallo, 31

— Sacramento Kings’ G De’Aaron Fox just scored 109 points in consecutive games, only the third time that has ever happened in NBA history. Wilt Chamberlain, Kobe Bryant also did it.

— NBA pre-game/post-game show Inside the NBA will be on ESPN starting next season, a big upgrade to ESPN’s NBA programming.

— Wisconsin 87, Rio Grande Valley 84
Badgers are 5-0 this month, playing pace #239; last two years, Wisconsin played slower, the #307/344 pace. Four of the Badgers’ next five games are against top 60 teams.

— Cal-Fullerton 62, Idaho State 61
Titans put three guys in double figures; two of them didn’t start.
Idaho State had 22 offensive boards; Fullerton had 23 defensive rebounds.

— There are murmurs on the Interweb that the Mets offered Juan Soto $660M for 14 years, which works out to $47M a year. We’ll see who else steps up to the plate, whether another team will make an offer to try and at least drive up what the Mets/Bronx will have to pay Soto.

— Baltimore Orioles are going to move in the left-field wall at Camden Yards next season; parts of the left-field fence will will be pulled in at varying distances between 9 and 20 feet, and the fence will be four or five feet shorter in some areas.

— Thanksgiving Day is November 28 this year, the latest it can be- the college hoop schedule has been kind of spread out so far, not that much good stuff. Lot of cupcake games, but Purdue-Marquette is a headline game on Tuesday’s schedule. Holiday tournaments will be in full force next week, always a good thing.
 

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