Armadillo Sports
Monday’s 6-pack:
Week 10 NFL spreads:
— Bengals @ Baltimore (-6)
— Giants (-5) vs Carolina (@ Munich, Germany)
— Broncos @ Kansas City (-9)
— Steelers @ Washington (-2.5)
— Falcons (-3.5) @ New Orleans
— 49ers (-6) @ Tampa Bay
Quote of the Day
“What a unique, weird game that was. What a job by our group to come away with the win.”
Rams coach Sean McVay
Monday’s quiz
Who was the Miami Dolphins’ QB, last time they won a game in Buffalo?
Sunday’s quiz
Gerrit Cole broke into the major leagues with the Pittsburgh Pirates, in 2013.
Saturday’s quiz
In the TV show The West Wing, when President Bartlet’s daughter is kidnapped, the president steps aside until she is found. John Goodman’s character took over as president in those two episodes.
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Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..
Rams 26, Seahawks 20 OT
Seattle’s first five drives: 24 plays, 44 yards, 4 punts and an INT
Seattle’s next two drives: 2 TD’s 0:46 apart at end of first half.
Seahawks led 13-3 at halftime.
Seattle for rest of game: 37 plays, 185 yards, 7 points.
Seattle is 0-5 when it gives up more than 20 points.
Smith threw two INTs in red zone; one was run back 102 yards for a TD.
Stafford threw a 39-yard walk-off TD pass to Robinson in overtime.
Rams are 3-0 scoring 26+ points, 1-3 scoring 20 or fewer points.
Six of their eight games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Last five games, opponents are 13-54 on third down.
Bills 30, Dolphins 27
Tyler Bass kicked a 61-yard FG with 0:10 left for the win.
Bass had previously missed a PAT, banked in another off an upright.
Dolphins had tied game on a TD with 1:38 left.
Miami lost six of its last seven games, last three by 1-5-3 points.
Dolphins led 10-6 at halftime.
Bills in 2nd half: four drives- 32 plays, 231 yards, 24 points.
Last four Buffalo games went over the total.
Bills won 15 of last 17 games vs Miami.
Buffalo outscored last five opponents 88-33 in second half.
Panthers 23, Saints 22
Carolina drove 64 yards, scored game-winning TD with 2:18 left.
Panthers’ win snapped their 5-game losing skid.
QB Young got his third win in 20 career NFL starts.
Saints had 10 penalties for 109 yards, Carolina six for 55.
Saints outgained Carolina 427-246, were +1 in turnovers but still lost.
New Orleans is 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS in its last seven games.
Last four games, New Orleans was outscored 84-22 in second half.
Saints are 1-6-1 ATS last eight games as a road favorite.
Ravens 41, Broncos 10
Ravens scored five TDs, kicked FG on their first seven drives.
WR Flowers caught five passes for 127 yards, two TD’s.
Baltimore is 6-1 SU/ATS in its last seven games.
Ravens scored 28+ points in their wins, 20-23-24 in losses.
Baltimore led this game 24-10 at halftime.
Denver had four drives of 44+ yards that ended with 4th down failures. Denver is 4-0 if they score more than 20 points, 1-4 if they score 20 or less.
Broncos’ last five games went over the total.
Chargers 27, Browns 10
Chargers led 20-3 at halftime.
Browns in first half: 28 plays, 52 yards, 5 punts, 3 points.
Chargers scored 22-26-23-26-27 points in wins, 10-10-15 in losses.
Last seven games, Chargers outscored foes 95-29 in 1st half.
Winston threw three INT’s, averaged only 4.1 yards/attempt.
Chargers are 8-4-2 ATS last 14 games as road favorites.
Under is 7-1 in Chargers’ first eight games.
AFC West favorites are 8-3 ATS in non-divisional games.
Bengals 41, Raiders 24
Bengals’ first five drives: 44 plays, 295 yards, 31 points.
Cincinnati outgained the Raiders, 373-217.
Burrow was 27-39/251 passing, with five TD’s.
Cincinnati is 21-10-1 ATS in last 32 games coming off a loss.
Bengals were 8-15 on third down, Raiders 5-13.
Raiders lost their last five games, by 16-19-5-7-7 points.
Las Vegas has 19 turnovers in nine games (minus-14).
Last six games, Raiders averaged 5.6 or fewer yards/pass attempt.
Commanders 27, Giants 22
Washington is 7-2 for the first time since 1996.
Commanders’ first 4 drives: 29 plays, 193 yards, 21 points.
Commanders are 5-1 ATS last six games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Washington converted 43 of last 85 third down plays.
Giants are 0-5 at home (1-4 ATS), scoring 4 TD’s on 48 drives.
Offense improved some in this game (3 TD’s on 7 drives).
QB Jones is 25-44-1 as an NFL starter.
Washington averaged 9.5 yards/pass attempt.
Famous birthdays, November 4th:
Loretta Swit, 87
Ralph Macchio, 63
Eric Karros, 57
Carlos Baerga, 56
Matthew McConaughey, 55
Orlando Pace, 49
Devin Hester, 42
Jared Verse, 24
Tyrese Maxey, 24
Falcons 27, Cowboys 21
Cousins threw 3 TD passes, averaged 8.1 yards/attempt.
Atlanta won five of its last six games SU.
Falcons were held to 10-17-14 points in their losses.
6-3 Atlanta leads NFC South by 1.5 games over Tampa Bay.
Dallas lost its last three games, giving up 47-30-27 points.
Cowboys ran ball for 137 yards, their most YR this season.
Cowboys outgained Atlanta, 378-310.
Dallas converted only once in five 4th down tries.
QB Prescott left with a hamstring injury.
Titans 20, Patriots 17 OT
NE QB Maye threw 5-yard TD pass on last play of regulation to force OT.
Titans drive 72 yards, kicked FG in OT, taking 7:28 off clock.
Tennessee outgained Patriots 400-295, were +2 in turnovers.
Titans converted 7-16 on third down, New England 3-11.
Patriots in first half: 27 plays, 109 yards, 3 points.
Patriots in 2nd half/OT: 40 plays, 152 yards, 14 points.
New England lost seven of its last eight games.
Patriots are 31-46 since Tom Brady left town.
Cardinals 29, Bears 9
3rd-string RB Demercado ran 53 yards for TD with 0:04 left in 1st half.
Cardinals have won three in a row, lead NFC West by a half-game.
Arizona ran ball for 213 yards, outgained Chicago 350-241.
Cardinals are 5-1 when they allow fewer than 34 points.
Bears averaged only 3.7 yards/pass attempt.
Chicago is 0-4 when they score less than 24 points.
Under Eberflus, Bears are 6-10-2 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Last five games, Bears are 17 of 57 on third down.
Eagles 28, Jaguars 23
Eagles led this game 22-0 with 6:00 left in third quarter.
Down 28-23, Jaguars had ball on Philly 13 with 1:40 left, but Nakobe Dean picked off a pass in the end zone to seal the win.
Jaguars are 7-2 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
Six of their last seven games went over the total.
RB Barkley had 30 touches for 199 yards, two TD’s.
Eagles have won won four games in a row.
Philly outgained Jaguars 447-215, were 0-3 on 2-point conversions.
Eagles are 2-9-1 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
Lions 24, Packers 14
Lions’ first four drives: 36 plays, 205 yards, 17 points.
QB Love threw an awful pick-6 with 0:32 left in 1st half.
Detroit led 17-3 at halftime, on a rainy day in Green Bay.
Under Campbell, Lions are 8-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Detroit is 7-1 ATS last eight NFC North road games.
Loss snaps Green Bay’s four-game winning streak.
Lions are 5-3 SU/6-2 ATS in last eight visits to Lambeau.
This was Detroit’s first game outdoors this season.
Last four games, Packers were outscored 40-9 in last 2:00 of half.
Green Bay outgained Lions 411-261; they were only 3-12 on 3rd down,
Vikings 21, Colts 13
Vikings in 1st half: 39 plays, 189 yards, 2 TO’s, 2 MFG’s.
Vikings in 2nd half: 33 plays, 232 yards, 21 points.
WR Jefferson caught seven passes for 137 yards.
NFC North home teams are 11-3 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts led 7-0 at halftime, with only score a defensive TD.
Colts were outgained 415-227; they were 3-11 on 3rd down (Vikings 6-12)
Colts/Bears were only teams Sunday that didn’t score an offensive TD.
Vikings missed two field goals, 53 and 31 yard attempts.
Monday’s 6-pack:
Week 10 NFL spreads:
— Bengals @ Baltimore (-6)
— Giants (-5) vs Carolina (@ Munich, Germany)
— Broncos @ Kansas City (-9)
— Steelers @ Washington (-2.5)
— Falcons (-3.5) @ New Orleans
— 49ers (-6) @ Tampa Bay
Quote of the Day
“What a unique, weird game that was. What a job by our group to come away with the win.”
Rams coach Sean McVay
Monday’s quiz
Who was the Miami Dolphins’ QB, last time they won a game in Buffalo?
Sunday’s quiz
Gerrit Cole broke into the major leagues with the Pittsburgh Pirates, in 2013.
Saturday’s quiz
In the TV show The West Wing, when President Bartlet’s daughter is kidnapped, the president steps aside until she is found. John Goodman’s character took over as president in those two episodes.
******************************************************
Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..
Rams 26, Seahawks 20 OT
Seattle’s first five drives: 24 plays, 44 yards, 4 punts and an INT
Seattle’s next two drives: 2 TD’s 0:46 apart at end of first half.
Seahawks led 13-3 at halftime.
Seattle for rest of game: 37 plays, 185 yards, 7 points.
Seattle is 0-5 when it gives up more than 20 points.
Smith threw two INTs in red zone; one was run back 102 yards for a TD.
Stafford threw a 39-yard walk-off TD pass to Robinson in overtime.
Rams are 3-0 scoring 26+ points, 1-3 scoring 20 or fewer points.
Six of their eight games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Last five games, opponents are 13-54 on third down.
Bills 30, Dolphins 27
Tyler Bass kicked a 61-yard FG with 0:10 left for the win.
Bass had previously missed a PAT, banked in another off an upright.
Dolphins had tied game on a TD with 1:38 left.
Miami lost six of its last seven games, last three by 1-5-3 points.
Dolphins led 10-6 at halftime.
Bills in 2nd half: four drives- 32 plays, 231 yards, 24 points.
Last four Buffalo games went over the total.
Bills won 15 of last 17 games vs Miami.
Buffalo outscored last five opponents 88-33 in second half.
Panthers 23, Saints 22
Carolina drove 64 yards, scored game-winning TD with 2:18 left.
Panthers’ win snapped their 5-game losing skid.
QB Young got his third win in 20 career NFL starts.
Saints had 10 penalties for 109 yards, Carolina six for 55.
Saints outgained Carolina 427-246, were +1 in turnovers but still lost.
New Orleans is 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS in its last seven games.
Last four games, New Orleans was outscored 84-22 in second half.
Saints are 1-6-1 ATS last eight games as a road favorite.
Ravens 41, Broncos 10
Ravens scored five TDs, kicked FG on their first seven drives.
WR Flowers caught five passes for 127 yards, two TD’s.
Baltimore is 6-1 SU/ATS in its last seven games.
Ravens scored 28+ points in their wins, 20-23-24 in losses.
Baltimore led this game 24-10 at halftime.
Denver had four drives of 44+ yards that ended with 4th down failures. Denver is 4-0 if they score more than 20 points, 1-4 if they score 20 or less.
Broncos’ last five games went over the total.
Chargers 27, Browns 10
Chargers led 20-3 at halftime.
Browns in first half: 28 plays, 52 yards, 5 punts, 3 points.
Chargers scored 22-26-23-26-27 points in wins, 10-10-15 in losses.
Last seven games, Chargers outscored foes 95-29 in 1st half.
Winston threw three INT’s, averaged only 4.1 yards/attempt.
Chargers are 8-4-2 ATS last 14 games as road favorites.
Under is 7-1 in Chargers’ first eight games.
AFC West favorites are 8-3 ATS in non-divisional games.
Bengals 41, Raiders 24
Bengals’ first five drives: 44 plays, 295 yards, 31 points.
Cincinnati outgained the Raiders, 373-217.
Burrow was 27-39/251 passing, with five TD’s.
Cincinnati is 21-10-1 ATS in last 32 games coming off a loss.
Bengals were 8-15 on third down, Raiders 5-13.
Raiders lost their last five games, by 16-19-5-7-7 points.
Las Vegas has 19 turnovers in nine games (minus-14).
Last six games, Raiders averaged 5.6 or fewer yards/pass attempt.
Commanders 27, Giants 22
Washington is 7-2 for the first time since 1996.
Commanders’ first 4 drives: 29 plays, 193 yards, 21 points.
Commanders are 5-1 ATS last six games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Washington converted 43 of last 85 third down plays.
Giants are 0-5 at home (1-4 ATS), scoring 4 TD’s on 48 drives.
Offense improved some in this game (3 TD’s on 7 drives).
QB Jones is 25-44-1 as an NFL starter.
Washington averaged 9.5 yards/pass attempt.
Famous birthdays, November 4th:
Loretta Swit, 87
Ralph Macchio, 63
Eric Karros, 57
Carlos Baerga, 56
Matthew McConaughey, 55
Orlando Pace, 49
Devin Hester, 42
Jared Verse, 24
Tyrese Maxey, 24
Falcons 27, Cowboys 21
Cousins threw 3 TD passes, averaged 8.1 yards/attempt.
Atlanta won five of its last six games SU.
Falcons were held to 10-17-14 points in their losses.
6-3 Atlanta leads NFC South by 1.5 games over Tampa Bay.
Dallas lost its last three games, giving up 47-30-27 points.
Cowboys ran ball for 137 yards, their most YR this season.
Cowboys outgained Atlanta, 378-310.
Dallas converted only once in five 4th down tries.
QB Prescott left with a hamstring injury.
Titans 20, Patriots 17 OT
NE QB Maye threw 5-yard TD pass on last play of regulation to force OT.
Titans drive 72 yards, kicked FG in OT, taking 7:28 off clock.
Tennessee outgained Patriots 400-295, were +2 in turnovers.
Titans converted 7-16 on third down, New England 3-11.
Patriots in first half: 27 plays, 109 yards, 3 points.
Patriots in 2nd half/OT: 40 plays, 152 yards, 14 points.
New England lost seven of its last eight games.
Patriots are 31-46 since Tom Brady left town.
Cardinals 29, Bears 9
3rd-string RB Demercado ran 53 yards for TD with 0:04 left in 1st half.
Cardinals have won three in a row, lead NFC West by a half-game.
Arizona ran ball for 213 yards, outgained Chicago 350-241.
Cardinals are 5-1 when they allow fewer than 34 points.
Bears averaged only 3.7 yards/pass attempt.
Chicago is 0-4 when they score less than 24 points.
Under Eberflus, Bears are 6-10-2 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Last five games, Bears are 17 of 57 on third down.
Eagles 28, Jaguars 23
Eagles led this game 22-0 with 6:00 left in third quarter.
Down 28-23, Jaguars had ball on Philly 13 with 1:40 left, but Nakobe Dean picked off a pass in the end zone to seal the win.
Jaguars are 7-2 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
Six of their last seven games went over the total.
RB Barkley had 30 touches for 199 yards, two TD’s.
Eagles have won won four games in a row.
Philly outgained Jaguars 447-215, were 0-3 on 2-point conversions.
Eagles are 2-9-1 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
Lions 24, Packers 14
Lions’ first four drives: 36 plays, 205 yards, 17 points.
QB Love threw an awful pick-6 with 0:32 left in 1st half.
Detroit led 17-3 at halftime, on a rainy day in Green Bay.
Under Campbell, Lions are 8-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Detroit is 7-1 ATS last eight NFC North road games.
Loss snaps Green Bay’s four-game winning streak.
Lions are 5-3 SU/6-2 ATS in last eight visits to Lambeau.
This was Detroit’s first game outdoors this season.
Last four games, Packers were outscored 40-9 in last 2:00 of half.
Green Bay outgained Lions 411-261; they were only 3-12 on 3rd down,
Vikings 21, Colts 13
Vikings in 1st half: 39 plays, 189 yards, 2 TO’s, 2 MFG’s.
Vikings in 2nd half: 33 plays, 232 yards, 21 points.
WR Jefferson caught seven passes for 137 yards.
NFC North home teams are 11-3 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts led 7-0 at halftime, with only score a defensive TD.
Colts were outgained 415-227; they were 3-11 on 3rd down (Vikings 6-12)
Colts/Bears were only teams Sunday that didn’t score an offensive TD.
Vikings missed two field goals, 53 and 31 yard attempts.
NFL BEST BETS FOR NOVEMBER !
11/04/2024...................1 - 1 - 0......................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/03/2024...................9 - 5 - 1......................64.28%......................+ 17.50
TOTALS...........................10 - 6 - 1.....................62.50%.....................+ 17.00
11/04/2024...................1 - 1 - 0......................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/03/2024...................9 - 5 - 1......................64.28%......................+ 17.50
TOTALS...........................10 - 6 - 1.....................62.50%.....................+ 17.00
Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Week 10 college football spreads:
— Georgia (-2.5) @ Ole Miss
— Michigan @ Indiana (-14)
— Iowa State (-3) @ Kansas
— Clemson (-6.5) @ Virginia Tech
— Alabama (-2.5) @ LSU
— BYU (-4) @ Utah
Quote of the Day
“What’s important for all the Oklahoma State fans to know is that we’re very aware of what’s going on, and at some point in life, we all have to put trust into somebody. And I think they need to trust that we have a good plan for what’s going on here in the big picture, and we have answers. Sometimes they’re not short term. Sometimes they might be long-term answers.”
Oklahoma State football coach Mike Gundy; his team is 3-6, 0-6 in Big X games
Tuesday’s quiz
In The Hangover movies, what well-known actor played Alan’s father?
Monday’s quiz
Matt Moore was the Miami Dolphins’ QB, last time they won a game in Buffalo, which was way back in 2016. Adam Gase was Miami’s coach.
Sunday’s quiz
Gerrit Cole broke into the major leagues with the Pittsburgh Pirates, in 2013.
***********************************
There are six D-I teams with no returning players from last year, none. Players transfer at an alarming rate, so the pre-Christmas games are used to figure things out. We’ll be watching a boatload of games as we gather knowledge. November used to be a fun time to pick games; the more experienced teams cleaned up. It ain’t so easy anymore.
There are 364 Division I teams now; the Final Four is in San Antonio this year. Here are some notes from the first night of the road to the Alamo.
— FS1 did an unusual thing and cut in/out of all the Big East teams playing Monday; none of them were playing anyone good, but all the teams got some TV exposure.
Big East teams went 8-0, but four of the wins were by 7 or less points. It takes teams time to develop chemistry and you really can’t measure how that happens.
— Gonzaga 101, Baylor 63- Zags bamboozled Baylor; they made 13-31 on the arc- they looked so good they’re overrated now. Baylor was 3-21 on the arc; they beat Gonzaga in the national title game four years ago. This game was their comeuppance for that.
— Ohio State 80, Texas 72- High-level game in Las Vegas; Buckeyes made 14-28 on the arc, Texas was 7-28. Ohio State’s subs outscored the Texas bench, 33-10.
— MAC/Sun Belt Challenge
Sun Belt teams were all home; they went 8-4 in these games, with favorites going 7-5 ATS.
— Oklahoma State 89, Green Bay 76— Doug Gottlieb played his college ball at Oklahoma State, then became a TV/radio personality. Now he’s coaching Green Bay and his first game with the Phoenix was in his old college arena.
74-possession game, fast pace. Both teams shot over 45% on the arc.
— They had a tripleheader of games at Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota:
Santa Clara 85, Saint Louis 78
Billikens’ best player, Robbie Avila, hurt his ankle, played only 29:00.
Both teams took more 3-point shots than 2-point shots.
Charleston 90, Southern Illinois 80
Chris Mack’s Cougars shot 62.9% inside the arc.
SIU was +8 in turnovers, but shot only 5-21 on the arc.
South Dakota State 80, McNeese State 73
Jackrabbits were a 10-point underdog in their home state.
Game was 33-33 at halftime.
McNeese started five seniors; this will hurt their seeding in March, assuming they win the Southland title.
Lot of information to go thru; we’ll do some more tomorrow.
Famous birthdays, November 5th:
Kellen Winslow, 67
Lloyd Moseby, 65
Tatum O’Neal, 61
Famke Janssen, 60
Todd Collins, 53
Johnny Damon, 51
Jerry Stackhouse, 50
Jason Kelce, 37
Jon Gray, 33
Odell Beckham, 32
— Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 24 OT
Kansas City converted 12-18 third down plays.
Chiefs ran 83 plays for 384 yards, Bucs 52 for 284.
TE Kelce caught 14 passes for 100 yards.
Chiefs are 8-0, but they’re 4-3-1 against the spread.
Tampa Bay lost for fourth time in last five games.
Bucs drove 81 yards, forced OT on a TD with 0:27 left.
Tampa Bay’s last six games went over the total.
Bucs are 9-2 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
— NFC teams are 25-20 against AFC teams this season.
— New Orleans Saints fired coach Dennis Allen Monday; Saints lost their last seven games, after winning 47-10/44-19 in Weeks 1-2. Losing to Carolina gets you fired.
Allen was 18-25 in 2.5 years with the Saints; teen years ago, when the Raiders fired him after an 0-4 start, Derek Carr was the QB for that team, too.
— Las Vegas Raiders fired OC Luke Getsy and two other assistant coaches; Raiders have lost five games in a row, using three different QB’s. They also fired their offensive line coach and their QB coach. Getsy was in his first year with Las Vegas; not a lot of patience there.
— Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has a hamstring injury that is said to be worse than first feared; he is expected to miss multiple games, maybe even go on IR, which would mean missing 4+ games. Dallas is 3-5 and coach Mike McCarthy’s job is in jeopardy.
— NFL flexed the Jets-Colts game off of Sunday night in Week 11, replacing it with Bengals-Chargers. Good news for Jets fans; it’ll be lot warmer for the 1:00 game than a night game.
— Bears, Steelers are only two NFL teams that hasn’t played a divisional game yet.
— We mentioned yesterday that Detroit played its first seven games indoors, before they won in Green Bay Sunday. Last NFL team to play their first seven games indoors? The 1998 Saints, coached by Mike Ditka. Saints were 4-3 in the indoor games, but wound up with a 6-10 record.
— Tennessee Titans (16-1) scored the first touchdown Sunday; yes, you can bet on that.
Week 10 college football spreads:
— Georgia (-2.5) @ Ole Miss
— Michigan @ Indiana (-14)
— Iowa State (-3) @ Kansas
— Clemson (-6.5) @ Virginia Tech
— Alabama (-2.5) @ LSU
— BYU (-4) @ Utah
Quote of the Day
“What’s important for all the Oklahoma State fans to know is that we’re very aware of what’s going on, and at some point in life, we all have to put trust into somebody. And I think they need to trust that we have a good plan for what’s going on here in the big picture, and we have answers. Sometimes they’re not short term. Sometimes they might be long-term answers.”
Oklahoma State football coach Mike Gundy; his team is 3-6, 0-6 in Big X games
Tuesday’s quiz
In The Hangover movies, what well-known actor played Alan’s father?
Monday’s quiz
Matt Moore was the Miami Dolphins’ QB, last time they won a game in Buffalo, which was way back in 2016. Adam Gase was Miami’s coach.
Sunday’s quiz
Gerrit Cole broke into the major leagues with the Pittsburgh Pirates, in 2013.
***********************************
Tuesday’s Den: The first night of college basketball and other things……..
College basketball started Monday with an avalanche of games; no one and I emphasize NO ONE knows very much right now, and that includes the coaches, so I’ll watch a ton of games and we’ll gradually learn stuff.There are six D-I teams with no returning players from last year, none. Players transfer at an alarming rate, so the pre-Christmas games are used to figure things out. We’ll be watching a boatload of games as we gather knowledge. November used to be a fun time to pick games; the more experienced teams cleaned up. It ain’t so easy anymore.
There are 364 Division I teams now; the Final Four is in San Antonio this year. Here are some notes from the first night of the road to the Alamo.
— FS1 did an unusual thing and cut in/out of all the Big East teams playing Monday; none of them were playing anyone good, but all the teams got some TV exposure.
Big East teams went 8-0, but four of the wins were by 7 or less points. It takes teams time to develop chemistry and you really can’t measure how that happens.
— Gonzaga 101, Baylor 63- Zags bamboozled Baylor; they made 13-31 on the arc- they looked so good they’re overrated now. Baylor was 3-21 on the arc; they beat Gonzaga in the national title game four years ago. This game was their comeuppance for that.
— Ohio State 80, Texas 72- High-level game in Las Vegas; Buckeyes made 14-28 on the arc, Texas was 7-28. Ohio State’s subs outscored the Texas bench, 33-10.
— MAC/Sun Belt Challenge
Sun Belt teams were all home; they went 8-4 in these games, with favorites going 7-5 ATS.
— Oklahoma State 89, Green Bay 76— Doug Gottlieb played his college ball at Oklahoma State, then became a TV/radio personality. Now he’s coaching Green Bay and his first game with the Phoenix was in his old college arena.
74-possession game, fast pace. Both teams shot over 45% on the arc.
— They had a tripleheader of games at Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota:
Santa Clara 85, Saint Louis 78
Billikens’ best player, Robbie Avila, hurt his ankle, played only 29:00.
Both teams took more 3-point shots than 2-point shots.
Charleston 90, Southern Illinois 80
Chris Mack’s Cougars shot 62.9% inside the arc.
SIU was +8 in turnovers, but shot only 5-21 on the arc.
South Dakota State 80, McNeese State 73
Jackrabbits were a 10-point underdog in their home state.
Game was 33-33 at halftime.
McNeese started five seniors; this will hurt their seeding in March, assuming they win the Southland title.
Lot of information to go thru; we’ll do some more tomorrow.
Famous birthdays, November 5th:
Kellen Winslow, 67
Lloyd Moseby, 65
Tatum O’Neal, 61
Famke Janssen, 60
Todd Collins, 53
Johnny Damon, 51
Jerry Stackhouse, 50
Jason Kelce, 37
Jon Gray, 33
Odell Beckham, 32
— Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 24 OT
Kansas City converted 12-18 third down plays.
Chiefs ran 83 plays for 384 yards, Bucs 52 for 284.
TE Kelce caught 14 passes for 100 yards.
Chiefs are 8-0, but they’re 4-3-1 against the spread.
Tampa Bay lost for fourth time in last five games.
Bucs drove 81 yards, forced OT on a TD with 0:27 left.
Tampa Bay’s last six games went over the total.
Bucs are 9-2 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
— NFC teams are 25-20 against AFC teams this season.
— New Orleans Saints fired coach Dennis Allen Monday; Saints lost their last seven games, after winning 47-10/44-19 in Weeks 1-2. Losing to Carolina gets you fired.
Allen was 18-25 in 2.5 years with the Saints; teen years ago, when the Raiders fired him after an 0-4 start, Derek Carr was the QB for that team, too.
— Las Vegas Raiders fired OC Luke Getsy and two other assistant coaches; Raiders have lost five games in a row, using three different QB’s. They also fired their offensive line coach and their QB coach. Getsy was in his first year with Las Vegas; not a lot of patience there.
— Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has a hamstring injury that is said to be worse than first feared; he is expected to miss multiple games, maybe even go on IR, which would mean missing 4+ games. Dallas is 3-5 and coach Mike McCarthy’s job is in jeopardy.
— NFL flexed the Jets-Colts game off of Sunday night in Week 11, replacing it with Bengals-Chargers. Good news for Jets fans; it’ll be lot warmer for the 1:00 game than a night game.
— Bears, Steelers are only two NFL teams that hasn’t played a divisional game yet.
— We mentioned yesterday that Detroit played its first seven games indoors, before they won in Green Bay Sunday. Last NFL team to play their first seven games indoors? The 1998 Saints, coached by Mike Ditka. Saints were 4-3 in the indoor games, but wound up with a 6-10 record.
— Tennessee Titans (16-1) scored the first touchdown Sunday; yes, you can bet on that.
NFL
Week 10
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Trend Report
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Cincinnati vs Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
NY Giants vs Carolina
NY Giants is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Giants's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
New England vs Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 7 games when playing Chicago
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Denver vs Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Atlanta vs New Orleans
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Buffalo vs Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Minnesota vs Jacksonville
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco vs Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Pittsburgh vs Washington
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Washington
Washington is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Washington is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Tennessee vs LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Chargers's last 10 games
NY Jets vs Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing Arizona
NY Jets is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia vs Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Dallas
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Detroit vs Houston
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games
Miami vs LA Rams
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
LA Rams is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing Miami
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Week 10
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Trend Report
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Cincinnati vs Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
NY Giants vs Carolina
NY Giants is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Giants's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
New England vs Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 7 games when playing Chicago
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Denver vs Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Atlanta vs New Orleans
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Buffalo vs Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Minnesota vs Jacksonville
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco vs Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Pittsburgh vs Washington
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Washington
Washington is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Washington is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Tennessee vs LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Chargers's last 10 games
NY Jets vs Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing Arizona
NY Jets is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia vs Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Dallas
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Detroit vs Houston
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games
Miami vs LA Rams
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
LA Rams is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing Miami
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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
— Arizona State 55, Idaho State 48- ASU survived shooting 30.8% from floor.
— San Francisco 86, Cal Poly 78- Mustangs lost, but they’re a much-improved team.
— Rice 77, FIU 70- Owls shot 64.3% inside the arc.
— North Texas 80, Evansville 63- UNT out-rebounded the Aces, 39-22.
— Washington 79, Cal-Davis 73- Huskies survived shooting 21-38 on foul line.
— Kansas State 89, New Orleans 65- N’Guessan had 21 points, 15 rebounds.
Quote of the Day
“Maybe I could have not let my emotions show quite as much, but it’s also something that I’ve tried to do more and I know people in the locker room have wanted me to do a little more, whether good or bad. But I can’t show my emotion positively and then when things don’t go well, not let that be known as well.”
Bengals QB Joe Burrow
Wednesday’s quiz
Which president’s picture is on the $2 bill?
Tuesday’s quiz
In The Hangover movies, Jeffrey Tambor played Alan’s father.
Monday’s quiz
Matt Moore was the Miami Dolphins’ QB, last time they won a game in Buffalo, which was way back in 2016. Adam Gase was Miami’s coach.
*******************************************
Hawks (3-5):
— 1-5 SU in their last six games.
— 0-3 ATS as an underdog.
— Over 7-1
Celtics (7-1):
— won last three games, by 15-10-30 points.
— 2-0 ATS as a home favorite, 3-3 as road favorite.
— under 3-1-1 last five games.
Nets (4-4):
— won three of their last four games SU.
— 5-1 ATS last six games.
— 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
— under 3-1 last four games
Hornets (2-5):
— lost five of last six games SU; 1-4 ATS last five.
— 1-3 ATS at home.
— under 3-1-1 last five games.
Bulls (3-4)
— lost last two games, by 8-9 points.
— allowed 120+ points in three of last four games.
— over 5-2
Cavaliers (8-0):
— 8-0 SU/7-1 ATS this season.
— 5-1 ATS as a favorite, 2-0 as underdog.
— over 3-1 last four games.
Mavericks (4-3):
— lost two of last three games, all at home.
— 2-4 ATS as a favorite.
— under 4-2 last six games.
Nuggets (4-3):
— 4-1 SU last five games.
— 1-5 ATS as a favorite, 1-0 as an underdog.
— over 5-0 last five games.
Pistons (3-5):
— won three of last four games SU.
— 3-1 ATS as road underdogs, 2-2 as a home dog.
— under 6-2
Warriors (6-1):
— won last four games SU, scoring 120 ppg.
— 4-0 ATS on the road.
— 2-0 ATS as an underdog.
— over 3-1 last four games
Rockets (4-3):
— won three of last four games SU
— 2-3 ATS as a favorite, 2-0 as an underdog.
— under 5-2
Pacers (3-4):
— 1-5 SU if they score less than 134 points.
— 1-2 ATS as a favorite, 3-1 ATS as an underdog.
— over 5-0 last five games.
Clippers (3-4):
— lost three of last four games
— 2-3 ATS at home, 2-0 on road.
— over 3-2 at home, under 2-0 on road.
Lakers (4-3):
— lost three of last four games SU
— 3-0 ATS at home, 1-3 ATS on road.
— over 4-2 last six games.
Grizzlies (4-4):
— 2-3 ATS last five games.
— 1-4 ATS as a favorite.
— under 3-1 last four games
Famous birthdays, November 6th:
Sally Field, 78
Charlie Criss, 76
Gerald Riggs, 64
Ethan Hawke, 54
Lamar Odom, 45
Luke Jackson, 43
James Paxton, 36
Alejandro Kirk, 26
Heat (3-3):
— 1-3 SU at home, 2-0 on road.
— road team covered all six of their games.
— under 4-1 last five games.
Bucks (1-6):
— lost last six games, last two by 1-2 points.
— 1-4 ATS as a favorite.
— under 4-1 last five games.
Timberwolves (4-3)
— won four of last six games SU.
— 2-5 ATS, all as a favorite.
— over 3-1 last four games.
Pelicans (3-5):
— lost five of last six games SU
— 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS on the road.
— over 4-2 last six games.
Knicks (3-3):
— 0-3 SU if they score less than 116 points.
— 3-2 ATS as a favorite.
— under 2-0 at home, over 3-1 on road.
Thunder (7-0):
— 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS this season.
— 4-0 ATS on road, 2-1 at home.
— under 5-2
Magic (3-5):
— lost last four games, last three by 11-23-16 points.
— 1-4 ATS as road underdog.
— under 3-1 last four games.
76ers (1-5):
— lost last three games, by 10-17-2 points.
— 0-3 ATS as favorite, 2-1 as underdog.
— over 5-1
Suns (6-1):
— won their last five games SU
— last four wins were all by 6 or fewer points.
— under 3-1 at home, 3-0 on road
Trailblazers (3-5):
— split last six games SU, after an 0-2 start.
— 3-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— under 4-1 last five games
Kings (4-3):
— 4-1 SU/ATS in last five games.
— 3-1 ATS as a favorite.
— over 4-3
Spurs (3-4):
— 2-3 SU in last five games
— 1-0 ATS as favorite, 3-3 as an underdog.
— under 2-1 on road (2-2 at home)
Raptors (2-6):
— 1-5 SU in last six games.
— 7-1 ATS, all as an underdog.
— over 7-1
Jazz (1-6):
— lost six of seven games SU
— 1-3 ATS as home underdog, 2-1 as road dog.
— under 3-1 home games.
Wizards (2-4):
— all four of their losses were by 13+ points.
— 1-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— over 4-1 last five games.
— Arizona State 55, Idaho State 48- ASU survived shooting 30.8% from floor.
— San Francisco 86, Cal Poly 78- Mustangs lost, but they’re a much-improved team.
— Rice 77, FIU 70- Owls shot 64.3% inside the arc.
— North Texas 80, Evansville 63- UNT out-rebounded the Aces, 39-22.
— Washington 79, Cal-Davis 73- Huskies survived shooting 21-38 on foul line.
— Kansas State 89, New Orleans 65- N’Guessan had 21 points, 15 rebounds.
Quote of the Day
“Maybe I could have not let my emotions show quite as much, but it’s also something that I’ve tried to do more and I know people in the locker room have wanted me to do a little more, whether good or bad. But I can’t show my emotion positively and then when things don’t go well, not let that be known as well.”
Bengals QB Joe Burrow
Wednesday’s quiz
Which president’s picture is on the $2 bill?
Tuesday’s quiz
In The Hangover movies, Jeffrey Tambor played Alan’s father.
Monday’s quiz
Matt Moore was the Miami Dolphins’ QB, last time they won a game in Buffalo, which was way back in 2016. Adam Gase was Miami’s coach.
*******************************************
Wednesday’s Den: Early season NBA trends……..
NBA trends (thru Tuesday, November 5)Hawks (3-5):
— 1-5 SU in their last six games.
— 0-3 ATS as an underdog.
— Over 7-1
Celtics (7-1):
— won last three games, by 15-10-30 points.
— 2-0 ATS as a home favorite, 3-3 as road favorite.
— under 3-1-1 last five games.
Nets (4-4):
— won three of their last four games SU.
— 5-1 ATS last six games.
— 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
— under 3-1 last four games
Hornets (2-5):
— lost five of last six games SU; 1-4 ATS last five.
— 1-3 ATS at home.
— under 3-1-1 last five games.
Bulls (3-4)
— lost last two games, by 8-9 points.
— allowed 120+ points in three of last four games.
— over 5-2
Cavaliers (8-0):
— 8-0 SU/7-1 ATS this season.
— 5-1 ATS as a favorite, 2-0 as underdog.
— over 3-1 last four games.
Mavericks (4-3):
— lost two of last three games, all at home.
— 2-4 ATS as a favorite.
— under 4-2 last six games.
Nuggets (4-3):
— 4-1 SU last five games.
— 1-5 ATS as a favorite, 1-0 as an underdog.
— over 5-0 last five games.
Pistons (3-5):
— won three of last four games SU.
— 3-1 ATS as road underdogs, 2-2 as a home dog.
— under 6-2
Warriors (6-1):
— won last four games SU, scoring 120 ppg.
— 4-0 ATS on the road.
— 2-0 ATS as an underdog.
— over 3-1 last four games
Rockets (4-3):
— won three of last four games SU
— 2-3 ATS as a favorite, 2-0 as an underdog.
— under 5-2
Pacers (3-4):
— 1-5 SU if they score less than 134 points.
— 1-2 ATS as a favorite, 3-1 ATS as an underdog.
— over 5-0 last five games.
Clippers (3-4):
— lost three of last four games
— 2-3 ATS at home, 2-0 on road.
— over 3-2 at home, under 2-0 on road.
Lakers (4-3):
— lost three of last four games SU
— 3-0 ATS at home, 1-3 ATS on road.
— over 4-2 last six games.
Grizzlies (4-4):
— 2-3 ATS last five games.
— 1-4 ATS as a favorite.
— under 3-1 last four games
Famous birthdays, November 6th:
Sally Field, 78
Charlie Criss, 76
Gerald Riggs, 64
Ethan Hawke, 54
Lamar Odom, 45
Luke Jackson, 43
James Paxton, 36
Alejandro Kirk, 26
Heat (3-3):
— 1-3 SU at home, 2-0 on road.
— road team covered all six of their games.
— under 4-1 last five games.
Bucks (1-6):
— lost last six games, last two by 1-2 points.
— 1-4 ATS as a favorite.
— under 4-1 last five games.
Timberwolves (4-3)
— won four of last six games SU.
— 2-5 ATS, all as a favorite.
— over 3-1 last four games.
Pelicans (3-5):
— lost five of last six games SU
— 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS on the road.
— over 4-2 last six games.
Knicks (3-3):
— 0-3 SU if they score less than 116 points.
— 3-2 ATS as a favorite.
— under 2-0 at home, over 3-1 on road.
Thunder (7-0):
— 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS this season.
— 4-0 ATS on road, 2-1 at home.
— under 5-2
Magic (3-5):
— lost last four games, last three by 11-23-16 points.
— 1-4 ATS as road underdog.
— under 3-1 last four games.
76ers (1-5):
— lost last three games, by 10-17-2 points.
— 0-3 ATS as favorite, 2-1 as underdog.
— over 5-1
Suns (6-1):
— won their last five games SU
— last four wins were all by 6 or fewer points.
— under 3-1 at home, 3-0 on road
Trailblazers (3-5):
— split last six games SU, after an 0-2 start.
— 3-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— under 4-1 last five games
Kings (4-3):
— 4-1 SU/ATS in last five games.
— 3-1 ATS as a favorite.
— over 4-3
Spurs (3-4):
— 2-3 SU in last five games
— 1-0 ATS as favorite, 3-3 as an underdog.
— under 2-1 on road (2-2 at home)
Raptors (2-6):
— 1-5 SU in last six games.
— 7-1 ATS, all as an underdog.
— over 7-1
Jazz (1-6):
— lost six of seven games SU
— 1-3 ATS as home underdog, 2-1 as road dog.
— under 3-1 home games.
Wizards (2-4):
— all four of their losses were by 13+ points.
— 1-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— over 4-1 last five games.
NFL
Weather Report
Thursday, November 7
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 10
Thursday’s game
Bengals @ Ravens (-6)
Bengals (4-5)
Bengals won three of last four games, after a 1-4 start.
Bengals are 4-1 if they allow 24 or fewer points, 0-4 if they allow more than 24.
Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Team total: over 5-4
Opponents’ team total: over 5-3-1
Bengals are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.
Bengals won their last three road games SU.
Cincinnati is 14-6-1 ATS in last 11 games coming off a lwin.
Cincinnati is 0-4 SU in games decided by fewer than 7 points.
QB Burrow is 38-29-1 as an NFL starter.
Ravens (6-3)
Baltimore is 6-1 SU/ATS in its last seven games.
Baltimore is 6-0 if they score 28+ points, 0-3 if they score less than 28
Ravens scored 30 touchdowns on their last 68 drives.
Ravens allowed 320 PY in three of last five games.
Team total: over 6-3
Opponents’ team total: over 7-2
Ravens are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
Over is 8-1 in Baltimore’s games this year.
QB Jackson is 67-26 as an NFL starter.
Ravens are 3-3 when they run for less than 200 yards.
Last three games, Ravens allowed 8 TD’s on 29 drives.
Last 4 weeks, Ravens threw for 11+ yards/pass attempt three times.
Ravens (-2.5) won 41-38 in OT at Cincinnati in Week 5.
Baltimore outgained the Bengals, 520-442
Ravens won last four meetings, by 4-14-2-3 points.
Over is 7-1 in last eight series games.
Weather Report
Thursday, November 7
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 10
Thursday’s game
Bengals @ Ravens (-6)
Bengals (4-5)
Bengals won three of last four games, after a 1-4 start.
Bengals are 4-1 if they allow 24 or fewer points, 0-4 if they allow more than 24.
Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Team total: over 5-4
Opponents’ team total: over 5-3-1
Bengals are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.
Bengals won their last three road games SU.
Cincinnati is 14-6-1 ATS in last 11 games coming off a lwin.
Cincinnati is 0-4 SU in games decided by fewer than 7 points.
QB Burrow is 38-29-1 as an NFL starter.
Ravens (6-3)
Baltimore is 6-1 SU/ATS in its last seven games.
Baltimore is 6-0 if they score 28+ points, 0-3 if they score less than 28
Ravens scored 30 touchdowns on their last 68 drives.
Ravens allowed 320 PY in three of last five games.
Team total: over 6-3
Opponents’ team total: over 7-2
Ravens are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
Over is 8-1 in Baltimore’s games this year.
QB Jackson is 67-26 as an NFL starter.
Ravens are 3-3 when they run for less than 200 yards.
Last three games, Ravens allowed 8 TD’s on 29 drives.
Last 4 weeks, Ravens threw for 11+ yards/pass attempt three times.
Ravens (-2.5) won 41-38 in OT at Cincinnati in Week 5.
Baltimore outgained the Bengals, 520-442
Ravens won last four meetings, by 4-14-2-3 points.
Over is 7-1 in last eight series games.
Top NFL Things To Know
Chalk Back
Favorites On Great RunNFL favorites finished 14-1 straight up in Week 9. This is just the third week over the last 15 years when favorites won 14+ games SU with just one loss.
In Week 9, favorites were 10-5 ATS, while they are 46-27-1 ATS (63%) over the last five weeks.
Rookie Leap
Favorites UndefeatedThrough nine weeks, Rookie QBs are 17-16 SU and 20-12-1 ATS. Last year, rookie QBs went 34-36-2 ATS over the full season.
This year, rookie QBs are 11-0 ATS when listed as a favorite and 9-12-1 ATS when listed as an underdog.
In his early career, Jayden Daniels is 7-1-1 ATS through nine starts, including 5-0 SU/ATS as a favorite. He’s the first QB to start his career 5-0 ATS as a favorite since 2000.
Cover City
Goff, Campbell Helping BettorsOne of the best cover runs of all-time continues. The Lions are now 40-15 ATS (72.7%) over their last 55 games since the middle of the 2021 season.
Talk about coming through for your bettors. Goff is 4-0 ATS this season as the public side. He’s 14-2 ATS last two seasons and 21-4 ATS last three years when listed as the public side.
Road Domination
Pack It UpFavorites away from home – road or neutral – are 33-18-2 ATS this season, the best season through nine weeks in the last 20 years. In fact, only one other year in that span even finished a season more than 3 games above .500 ATS in this spot. Since Week 5, road favorites are 24-9 ATS.
Overall, road teams are 74-57-3 ATS (57%) this season — which would be the 2nd-highest ATS win pct for road teams over a full season in the Wild Card era since 1990.
Dennis The Menace
Saints March OnDennis Allen's 9-18-1 record ATS in his career as a favorite is the worst mark of any head coach in the last 30 years.
Allen has coached five seasons in the NFL — his teams are 0-5 to their preseason win total over & on their way to 0-6.
2-0 under w/ Saints (2022-23)
3-0 under w/ Raiders (2012-14)
39 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 17-22 straight up (SU) and 22-17 against the spread (ATS) in their first game following the firing.
Those teams had a 102-263-3 SU record (28%) prior to the head coaching change. They also compiled a 135-227-5 ATS (37.3%) record prior to the coaching change.
Caution Ahead
Not How You WinPassing hasn’t equaled on-field success so far this season. Teams to pass for 200 yds or fewer are 61-56-2 ATS this year. That would be the 3rd-highest ATS win pct over a full season since 1990.
Plugged In
Chargers DefenseChargers are 7-1 to the under in the full-game total this season, going under the total by 7.7 PPG. Since the start of last season, the under is 19-6 in Chargers games, the best mark for any team in the NFL.
Just look at Jim Harbaugh and his tendencies: In his last three years as a coach in the NFL, the under 28-14-1 in games he coaches with the Chargers and 49ers.
Looking specifically at Justin Herbert, he is now 17-4 to the under since the start of last season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL – including 17-2 to the under in his last 19 starts.
Up, Up, and Away
High TNF TotalsWe have a high TNF total this week. Totals of 52+ on Thursday Night Football are 14-5-1 to the under since 2003. We haven’t had a total close 53 or higher on TNF since 2021 – Chargers vs. Chiefs, closed at 54.
Joe Burrow has been listed as an underdog of 3 pts or more 19 times in his career. He is 9-9-1 SU and 16-3 ATS. Last 20 years, Burrow is the 3rd-most profitable QB ATS in this spot behind Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater.
Best NFL Week 10 betting trends
The trend: The Ravens are 8-1 to the Over this season
The trend: All nine Panthers games have gone Over the first-half total this season
The trend: The Vikings are 7-1 against the first-quarter spread
The trend: The Chiefs are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games against the Broncos
The trend: The Saints are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog
The trend: The Bears are 4-0 ATS at home and have gone Over their team total in all four home games
The trend: These teams are a combined 12-5 to the Over this season SF@TB
The trend: The Steelers are 7-0 SU in their last seven games following a bye
The trend: The Bills have gone Under in 16 of their last 21 road games
The trend: The Chargers are 7-1 to the Under this season
The trend: The Cowboys have allowed an average of 41.75 points in their last four home games
The trend: The Jets are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 road games
The trend: The Texans have gone Under in 17 of their last 23 regular season games
The trend: Miami is 1-14 SU and 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games as an underdog
Week 10 NFL Betting Trends:
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games
There have been 30 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater, they went Under at a 22-8 rate (73.3%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-BAL (o/u at 53.5)
* DENVER is 12-13 SU but 20-5 ATS bouncing back after a game having scored 14 points or less since 2019
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+8 at KC)
New Orleans: 13-1 ATS stretch in revenge games
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+4 vs. ATL)
* MIAMI’s Mike McDaniel is on 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+1 at LAR)
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 35-8 SU and 32-10-1 ATS (76.2%).
System Matches: PLAY – WASHINGTON, CHICAGO
* LA CHARGERS are on 13-0 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): TEN-LAC (o/u at 39)
NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion and then being favored in the latter games, are 87-18 SU and 69-36 ATS (65.7%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-8 vs. DEN), DETROIT (-3.5 at HOU)
The 49ers are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight post-bye week games versus non-divisional NFC foes
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5 at TB)
* DALLAS is on six-game SU and ATS win streak hosting Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+7 vs PHI)
NFL DK Betting Splits system #15: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 50-74 (40.3%) over the past two-plus seasons.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER): NYJ-ARI (o/u at 46)
Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams and their main components in recent years of action:
* ARIZONA is 38-18 SU and 35-21 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2012
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is just 2-7 SU and ATS in his last nine starts as a favorite
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (-1 vs. NYJ)
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is 7-0 Over the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2022
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYJ-ARI (o/u at 46)
* ATLANTA is 56-45 SU but 37-64 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2012
* ATLANTA’s Kirk Cousins is 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS in the last eight games as a road favorite
* ATLANTA is on 10-14 SU and 6-18 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days)
Systems Match: 2 FADEs, 1 PLAY of ATLANTA (-4 at NO)
* ATLANTA’s Raheem Morris is on 9-4 Over the total surge vs. teams with a losing record
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-NO (o/u at 46)
* BALTIMORE is 24-13 SU but 12-24 ATS as a divisional home favorite since 2010
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 26-8 SU and 22-11 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 23-11 SU and 12-21 ATS as a single-digit home favorite since 2018
Systems Match: 2 FADEs, 1 PLAY of BALTIMORE (-6 vs. CIN)
* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 33-18 Under the total on the road since 2018
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-3.5 at IND)
* CAROLINA is 6-17 SU and 5-18 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2017
* CAROLINA’s Bryce Young is 3-17 SU and 6-13 ATS in his last 19 starts as an underdog
Systems Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+6.5 vs. NYG)
* CHICAGO’s Matt Eberflus is 7-10 SU and 5-11 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2022
* CHICAGO’s Matt Eberflus is on a 6-0 SU and ATS streak at home
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE on CHICAGO (-6 vs NE)
* CHICAGO’s Matt Eberflus is on a 16-9 OVER the total surge when coming off an outright loss
System Match (PLAY OVER): NE-CHI (o/u at 39)
* CINCINNATI is 53-62 SU but 70-42 ATS on the road dating back to 2011
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor is on 12-6 SU and 14-4 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is on 8-9 SU but 15-2 ATS run as an underdog of +3 to 7 points
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 10-7 SU and 14-3 ATS in his last 17 starts vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
Systems Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+6 at BAL)
* DALLAS’ Mike McCarthy is just 13-29-1 SU and 14-29 ATS vs. teams with a winning record since 2017
Systems Match: FADE DALLAS (+7 vs. PHI)
* DENVER is 12-13 SU but 20-5 ATS bouncing back after a game having scored 14 points or less since 2019
* DENVER’s Sean Payton is 15-7 SU and 17-4 ATS in his 22 games when coming off an outright road loss
Systems Match (PLAY): DENVER (+8 at KC)
* DETROIT is 13-4 SU and 15-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
* DETROIT is on 16-9 SU and 20-5 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
Systems Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3.5 at HOU)
* HOUSTON is on 16-52 SU and 24-43 ATS slide vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+3.5 vs. DET)
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is on 10-2 UNDER the total surge vs. teams with winning records
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-HOU (o/u at 49)
* INDIANAPOLIS is 16-15 SU and 23-8 ATS vs. elite teams with point differentials of >=+4.5 PPG since 2015
System Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+3.5 vs. BUF)
* JACKSONVILLE is 8-47 SU and 13-41 ATS versus NFC foes since 2011
* JACKSONVILLE is on a horrific 4-37 SU and 9-32 ATS skid vs. teams with better records since 2011
Systems Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+4 vs. MIN)
* JACKSONVILLE is on 14-2 UNDER the total surge when coming off a loss to NFC foe
* JACKSONVILLE’s Trevor Lawrence is on 8-1 UNDER the total streak, with his team coming off a loss to an NFC foe
* JACKSONVILLE’s Doug Pederson is 18-5 UNDER the total in November games since 2016
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-JAX (o/u at 45)
* KANSAS CITY is 18-10 SU but 6-20 ATS when coming off a game of scoring 30+ points since 2020
Systems Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-8 vs. DEN)
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is 31-11 Under the total as a home favorite of 7 points or more since 2011
* KANSAS CITY is 70-38 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-KC (o/u at 41.5)
* LA CHARGERS are 61-27 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS are on 22-6 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 13-0 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): TEN-LAC (o/u at 39)
* LA CHARGERS’ Jim Harbaugh owns a solid 28-7 SU and 25-8 ATS NFL mark as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2011
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (*if they fall into this line range, -7.5 currently)
* LA RAMS’ Sean McVay is 6-4 SU but 1-8 ATS when his team plays with extra rest since 2022
* LA RAMS’ Sean McVay is just 8-13 SU and 5-14 ATS in its last 21 November games
Systems Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-1 vs. MIA)
* MIAMI’s Mike McDaniel is on 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+1 at LAR)
* MINNESOTA is 28-17 SU and 30-13 ATS versus AFC opponents since 2014
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 75-55 SU and 84-46 ATS record when playing on normal rest (seven days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA’s Sam Darnold is 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS in the last 14 starts vs. teams with losing records
Systems Match: 2 PLAYs, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (-4 at JAX)
* MINNESOTA’s Sam Darnold is 22-8 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-JAX (o/u at 45)
* NEW ORLEANS’ Derek Carr is 19-6 Over the total as a home dog of +3 to +7 points since 2014
* NEW ORLEANS’ Derek Carr is on 12-1 Over the total run vs. teams with a better record
* NEW ORLEANS’ Derek Carr is on 8-0 OVER the total streak as home underdog of +3 to +7 points
System Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-NO (o/u at 46)
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll boasts a decent 11-12 SU and 15-9 ATS record when coming off an outright loss since 2022
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (-6.5 at CAR)
* NY JETS own ugly 11-44 SU and 17-36 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016
System Match (FADE): NY JETS (+1 at ARI)
* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 11-1 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYJ-ARI (o/u at 46)
* PHILADELPHIA is 17-4 Over the total when coming off a home win since 2021
* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 17-7 Under the total in his last 24 road games
Systems Match: 1 PLAY on OVER, 1 PLAY on UNDER in PHI-DAL (o/u at 42.5)
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 8-3 SU but 0-10 ATS vs. poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more since 2022
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-7 at DAL)
* PITTSBURGH is 17-7 SU and 18-6 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013
* PITTSBURGH’s Mike Tomlin is on 27-19 SU and 32-12 ATS run as a single-digit underdog
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+2.5 at WAS)
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson is on 14-4 Over the total surge vs. teams with better records
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson is 8-0 Over the total in the last eight starts as non-conference road underdog
* PITTSBURGH’s Russell Wilson is 10-1 Under the total in his last 11 November starts
Systems Match: 2 PLAYs on OVER, 1 PLAY on UNDER in PIT-WAS (o/u at 45.5)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is on 3-4 SU and 0-7 ATS skid when coming off a home win
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in his last six starts following up a game in which his team scored 30+ points
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is just 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS in his last 12 vs. teams with lesser records
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5 at TB)
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is on an 0-9 SU and 0-7 ATS skid as a home underdog of +3 to +7 points
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-4 at NO)
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is 12-4 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2017
System Match (PLAY OVER): TAMPA BAY (+5.5 vs. SF)
* TENNESSEE is on 6-20 SU and 6-19-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+7.5 at LAC)
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 4-14 SU and 3-14 ATS vs. AFC since 2016
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-2.5 vs. PIT)
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Bengals Ravens Betting Trends
Ravens have won 8 straight TNF home games
Ravens are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games as the favorite.
Bengals are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games played in Week 10 covering just twice
OVER is 7-1 past 8 meetings including 5 straight
Ravens are 8-3 ATS past 11 vs Bengals including 5 straight covers
Bengals are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games on the road.
Bengals are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as the underdog
Ravens have played 5 straight OVERs and 8 of past 9
OVER is 6-1 past 7 Ravens games on short week TNF
Ravens are 6-1 SU, 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as chalk
Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 35-37 SU and 41-29-2 ATS (58.6%) in the last 72.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+6 at BAL)
There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 24-22 SU but 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 38-25 SU and 37-24-2 ATS (60.7%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-6 vs. CIN)
A long-running trend of Thursday night home-field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 17-17 SU but 13-21 ATS (38.2%) since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to that, divisional hosts were on an amazing 17-2-1 ATS run.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-6 vs. CIN)
More on totals, there have been 30 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater, they went Under at a 22-8 rate (73.3%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-BAL (o/u at 53)
UNDER the total TNF Team Trends
Cincinnati 6-3-1 Under the total since 2014
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-BAL (o/u at 53)
Thursday’s game
Bengals @ Ravens (-6)
Bengals (4-5)
Bengals won three of last four games, after a 1-4 start.
Bengals are 4-1 if they allow 24 or fewer points, 0-4 if they allow more than 24.
Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Team total: over 5-4
Opponents’ team total: over 5-3-1
Bengals are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.
Bengals won their last three road games SU.
Cincinnati is 14-6-1 ATS in last 11 games coming off a lwin.
Cincinnati is 0-4 SU in games decided by fewer than 7 points.
QB Burrow is 38-29-1 as an NFL starter.
Ravens (6-3)
Baltimore is 6-1 SU/ATS in its last seven games.
Baltimore is 6-0 if they score 28+ points, 0-3 if they score less than 28
Ravens scored 30 touchdowns on their last 68 drives.
Ravens allowed 320 PY in three of last five games.
Team total: over 6-3
Opponents’ team total: over 7-2
Ravens are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
Over is 8-1 in Baltimore’s games this year.
QB Jackson is 67-26 as an NFL starter.
Ravens are 3-3 when they run for less than 200 yards.
Last three games, Ravens allowed 8 TD’s on 29 drives.
Last 4 weeks, Ravens threw for 11+ yards/pass attempt three times.
Ravens (-2.5) won 41-38 in OT at Cincinnati in Week 5.
Baltimore outgained the Bengals, 520-442
Ravens won last four meetings, by 4-14-2-3 points.
Over is 7-1 in last eight series games.
I just reposted armadillo to keep all thursday info together
In case someone doesnt know ,
Cincinnati needed a running back after Zack Moss reported he was dealing with a neck injury before the team's Week 9 game against the Las Vegas Raiders. On Monday, Bengals coach Zac Taylor said more information would be gathered this week and a timetable for Moss's return was unclear, but on Tuesday, the Bengals placed Moss on injured reserve.
The Bengals acquired Chicago Bears running back Khalil Herbert in exchange for a 2025 seventh-round pick, the teams announced Tuesday.
I heard Burrow say in an interview " He doesnt have time to learn the plays so I will just tell him what to do in the huddle" . To me Cincy run game in a non factor anyway
Cincinnati needed a running back after Zack Moss reported he was dealing with a neck injury before the team's Week 9 game against the Las Vegas Raiders. On Monday, Bengals coach Zac Taylor said more information would be gathered this week and a timetable for Moss's return was unclear, but on Tuesday, the Bengals placed Moss on injured reserve.
The Bengals acquired Chicago Bears running back Khalil Herbert in exchange for a 2025 seventh-round pick, the teams announced Tuesday.
I heard Burrow say in an interview " He doesnt have time to learn the plays so I will just tell him what to do in the huddle" . To me Cincy run game in a non factor anyway
NFL BEST BETS FOR NOVEMBER !
11/07/2024...................2 - 0 - 0...................100.00%......................+ 10.00
11/04/2024...................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/03/2024...................9 - 5 - 1.....................64.28%......................+ 17.50
TOTALS.......................12 - 6 - 1.....................66.66%......................+ 27.00
11/07/2024...................2 - 0 - 0...................100.00%......................+ 10.00
11/04/2024...................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/03/2024...................9 - 5 - 1.....................64.28%......................+ 17.50
TOTALS.......................12 - 6 - 1.....................66.66%......................+ 27.00
Friday’s 6-pack:
Leading scorers in the NBA:
32.6— Anthony Davis, LAL
31.0— Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milw
30.2— Jayson Tatum, Bos
28.8— Nikola Jokic, Den
28.6— Luka Doncic, Dal
28.1— LaMelo Ball, Char
Quote of the Day
“Really our focus with Deshaun (Watson), I would say for any player with a season-ending injury and a major injury, is first and foremost and to make sure that he gets healthy from the Achilles injury. Everything else, we’ll deal with at a later moment.”
Cleveland Browns GM Andrew Berry
Friday’s quiz
Steelers’ QB Russell Wilson played college football at which two schools?
Thursday’s quiz
Who was coach of the Baltimore Ravens, before John Harbaugh?
Wednesday’s quiz
Thomas Jefferson’s picture is on the $2 bill.
*******************************************
Bengals scored TD with 0:38 left, went for 2 points/win, but failed.
Burrow threw for 428 yards, four TD’s.
Bengals outgained Baltimore, 470-389
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in games decided by fewer than 7 points.
Bengals are 8-3-1 ATS in last 12 games as a road underdog.
Ravens’ first six drives: 31 plays, 107 yards, 7 points.
Ravens’ last four drives: 26 plays, 258 yards, 28 points.
Baltimore is 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS in its last eight games.
Ravens scored 35 touchdowns on their last 78 drives.
Opponents’ team total: over 8-2
College basketball notes from the season’s first week:
— Columbia 90, Villanova 80
Columbia shot 70% inside arc, against a Big East team.
Lions haven’t had a winning season since 2016.
Villanova started five seniors; they were favored by 17.5 points.
— Gonzaga 102, Baylor 63
Zags scored 1.44 points/possession, bringing their A game.
Gonzaga also started five seniors; they raised expectations…..a lot.
— North Florida 74, South Carolina 71
Ospreys of the A-SUN pull a big upset- they were 19-point dogs.
South Carolina led by 8 with 14:10 left in game.
Gamecocks were only 14-25 on the foul line.
— Creighton 99, Rio Grande Valley 86
Ryan Kalkbrenner was 20-22 from floor, scored 49 points.
Senior PG Ashworth was 17-17 on foul line.
Red flag: Creighton gave up 86 points to a Southland team.
— Central Florida 64, Texas A&M 61
Knights were down 11 with 6:24 left in game.
UCF was 22-31 on foul line, Aggies were 8-14.
Knights won despite shooting 34% from the floor.
— Ivy League went 3-1 against the MAAC this week, with only loss Siena’s 72-71 OT win over Brown, a game Brown led by 6 with 1:41 left in regulation.
— Famous birthdays, November 8th:
Mary Hart, 74
Alfre Woodard, 72
Jimmy Giles, 70
Chuck Cecil, 60
Courtney Thorne-Smith, 57
Brevin Knight, 49
Sam Bradford, 37
Yasmani Grandal, 36
Giancarlo Stanton, 35
— Oklahoma State 89, Green Bay 76
OSU alum Doug Gottlieb is coaching Green Bay now, plus he is still a radio personality. This was a 74-possession game, fast pace. OSU led 39-38 at halftime, which is a good sign for Green Bay’s chances of being a contender in the Horizon League.
— South Dakota State 80, McNeese State 73
Upset here; McNeese starts five seniors, is being touted as a potential Cinderella in March. Jackrabbits started two freshmen and a sophomore; they made 12-35 on the arc.
— Arizona State 55, Idaho State 48
Was reading an article that inferred how Bobby Hurley isn’t enjoying the NIL era; this game was like watching paint dry, really bad paint. 0.83 points/possession against a Big Sky team doesn’t bode well for a Sun Devil squad that is moving up to the Big X this season.
— San Diego State 63, Cal-San Diego 58
Underdog Tritons led by 6 with 9:09 left; they start three seniors, two juniors in their fifth year as a D-I team. Cal-San Diego shot 28.6% inside arc, 38.5% on the arc. Aztecs’ next four D-I games are all against top 40 teams, which will be interesting.
— Rider 68, San Diego 67
Kid on USD scored 24 points and he didn’t start; this is a good win for the MAAC against Steve Lavin’s Toreros, who started three sophomores. Rider starts four seniors, always a good thing.
— Vermont started the season with a trip to Alabama:
Vermont 67, UAB 62- Great win for America East; UAB was 0-10 on the arc.
Auburn 94, Vermont 43- Reality set in here; this game was 84-27 at one point.
— Top 5 teams in country in experience:
Xavier
Ole Miss
Nevada
Oklahoma State
Memphis
Leading scorers in the NBA:
32.6— Anthony Davis, LAL
31.0— Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milw
30.2— Jayson Tatum, Bos
28.8— Nikola Jokic, Den
28.6— Luka Doncic, Dal
28.1— LaMelo Ball, Char
Quote of the Day
“Really our focus with Deshaun (Watson), I would say for any player with a season-ending injury and a major injury, is first and foremost and to make sure that he gets healthy from the Achilles injury. Everything else, we’ll deal with at a later moment.”
Cleveland Browns GM Andrew Berry
Friday’s quiz
Steelers’ QB Russell Wilson played college football at which two schools?
Thursday’s quiz
Who was coach of the Baltimore Ravens, before John Harbaugh?
Wednesday’s quiz
Thomas Jefferson’s picture is on the $2 bill.
*******************************************
Friday’s Den: College basketball notes from the first week…….
— Ravens 35, Bengals 34Bengals scored TD with 0:38 left, went for 2 points/win, but failed.
Burrow threw for 428 yards, four TD’s.
Bengals outgained Baltimore, 470-389
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in games decided by fewer than 7 points.
Bengals are 8-3-1 ATS in last 12 games as a road underdog.
Ravens’ first six drives: 31 plays, 107 yards, 7 points.
Ravens’ last four drives: 26 plays, 258 yards, 28 points.
Baltimore is 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS in its last eight games.
Ravens scored 35 touchdowns on their last 78 drives.
Opponents’ team total: over 8-2
College basketball notes from the season’s first week:
— Columbia 90, Villanova 80
Columbia shot 70% inside arc, against a Big East team.
Lions haven’t had a winning season since 2016.
Villanova started five seniors; they were favored by 17.5 points.
— Gonzaga 102, Baylor 63
Zags scored 1.44 points/possession, bringing their A game.
Gonzaga also started five seniors; they raised expectations…..a lot.
— North Florida 74, South Carolina 71
Ospreys of the A-SUN pull a big upset- they were 19-point dogs.
South Carolina led by 8 with 14:10 left in game.
Gamecocks were only 14-25 on the foul line.
— Creighton 99, Rio Grande Valley 86
Ryan Kalkbrenner was 20-22 from floor, scored 49 points.
Senior PG Ashworth was 17-17 on foul line.
Red flag: Creighton gave up 86 points to a Southland team.
— Central Florida 64, Texas A&M 61
Knights were down 11 with 6:24 left in game.
UCF was 22-31 on foul line, Aggies were 8-14.
Knights won despite shooting 34% from the floor.
— Ivy League went 3-1 against the MAAC this week, with only loss Siena’s 72-71 OT win over Brown, a game Brown led by 6 with 1:41 left in regulation.
— Famous birthdays, November 8th:
Mary Hart, 74
Alfre Woodard, 72
Jimmy Giles, 70
Chuck Cecil, 60
Courtney Thorne-Smith, 57
Brevin Knight, 49
Sam Bradford, 37
Yasmani Grandal, 36
Giancarlo Stanton, 35
— Oklahoma State 89, Green Bay 76
OSU alum Doug Gottlieb is coaching Green Bay now, plus he is still a radio personality. This was a 74-possession game, fast pace. OSU led 39-38 at halftime, which is a good sign for Green Bay’s chances of being a contender in the Horizon League.
— South Dakota State 80, McNeese State 73
Upset here; McNeese starts five seniors, is being touted as a potential Cinderella in March. Jackrabbits started two freshmen and a sophomore; they made 12-35 on the arc.
— Arizona State 55, Idaho State 48
Was reading an article that inferred how Bobby Hurley isn’t enjoying the NIL era; this game was like watching paint dry, really bad paint. 0.83 points/possession against a Big Sky team doesn’t bode well for a Sun Devil squad that is moving up to the Big X this season.
— San Diego State 63, Cal-San Diego 58
Underdog Tritons led by 6 with 9:09 left; they start three seniors, two juniors in their fifth year as a D-I team. Cal-San Diego shot 28.6% inside arc, 38.5% on the arc. Aztecs’ next four D-I games are all against top 40 teams, which will be interesting.
— Rider 68, San Diego 67
Kid on USD scored 24 points and he didn’t start; this is a good win for the MAAC against Steve Lavin’s Toreros, who started three sophomores. Rider starts four seniors, always a good thing.
— Vermont started the season with a trip to Alabama:
Vermont 67, UAB 62- Great win for America East; UAB was 0-10 on the arc.
Auburn 94, Vermont 43- Reality set in here; this game was 84-27 at one point.
— Top 5 teams in country in experience:
Xavier
Ole Miss
Nevada
Oklahoma State
Memphis
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 10
Sunday’s games
Panthers vs Giants (-5.5) (@ Munich, Germany)
Panthers (2-7)
Carolina is 1-5 SU/ATS in its last five games.
Carolina is 1-4 SU/ATS away from home this year.
Last five games, Panthers are minus-7 in turnovers.
QB Young lis 3-17 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 5-3-1
Opponents’ team total: over 7-2
Carolina is 5-6 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
Panthers were outgained 427-246 in LW’s 23-22 over the Saints.
Over is 7-2 in Carolina games this year.
Panthers opponents are 57-118 on third down.
Carolina is 5-10-1 ATS last 16 NFC South home games.
Last four games, Carolina was outscored 54-33 in 2nd half.
NFC South underdogs are 6-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Giants (2-7)
Giants lost last four games, scoring five TD’s on 40 drives.
Giants are 2-2 away from home, winning at Seattle/Cleveland.
Last three games, Giants were outscored 44-19 in first half.
Team total: under 5-3
Opponents’ team total: over 3-0 last three
Giants are favored for first time this season.
Under Daboll, Giants are 4-3 ATS as a favorite.
Under Daboll, Giants are 14-9-1 ATS coming off a loss.
QB Jones is 25-44-1 as an NFL starter.
Under is 6-3 in their games this season.
NFC East favorites are 4-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Giants won last two series games, 19-16/25-3
Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Broncos @ Chiefs (-8)
Broncos (5-4)
Denver won/covered five of its last seven games.
Last two weeks, Broncos converted 17-31 third down plays.
Denver is 4-0 if they score more than 20 points, 1-4 if they score 20 or less.
Team total: over 5-3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 5-4
Denver is 3-1 ATS as a road underdog this year.
Denver is 21-17-1 ATS in last 39 games as a road underdog
In wins, Broncos are +5 in turnovers; in losses, minus-6.
Under Payton, Denver is 5-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Broncos’ last five games went over the total.
Denver is 3-6 ATS in last nine AFC West road games.
Chiefs (8-0)
Short week for Chiefs after their OT win Monday night.
Chiefs won their first eight games, going 4-4 ATS.
Kansas City is 8-0 despite being minus-6 in turnovers.
Team total: over 4-0 last four
Opponents’ team total: under 5-3
Chiefs are 17-18 ATS in last 35 games as a home favorite.
Chiefs are 4-8 ATS in last 12 AFC West home games.
QB Mahomes is 98-25 as an NFL starter.
Last six games, Chiefs are 53-92 on third down.
Chiefs have outscored opponents 103-67 in second half.
Four of Chiefs’ last six games stayed under the total.
Chiefs won 15 of last 16 meetings with Denver.
Broncos are 0-8 SU/3-5 ATS in last eight visits to Arrowhead.
Over is 4-3 in last seven series games.
Steelers @ Commanders (-3)
Steelers (6-2)
Steelers averaged 8.7/8.1 yards/pass attempt in Wilson’s first two starts.
Wilson is 126-79-1 as an NFL starter, 19-27 since 2021.
Steelers are 16-10 ATS last six games as a road underdog.
Team total: over 3-0 last three
Opponents’ team total: under 6-2
Steelers allowed 18 or fewer points in wins, 27-20 in losses.
Pittsburgh is 13-7-1 in its last 21 games coming off a win.
Pittsburgh gained 409-426 yards the last two weeks.
Steelers are 9-4 ATS in last 13 games vs NFC teams.
Steelers are 16-7-1 ATS in last 24 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
AFC North underdogs are 6-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Commanders (7-2)
Washington is 7-1 SU/ATS in its last eight games.
Rookie QB Daniels is 7-2 as an NFL starter.
Commanders are 4-0 in games decided by less than 7 points.
Last four games, Commanders are +5 in turnovers.
Team total: over 7-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-4
Washington allowed 37-30 points in their two losses.
Washington converted 43 of last 86 third down plays.
Commanders are 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Commanders are 5-1 ATS in last six games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last three games, Washington averaged 8.0/7.8/9.5 yards/pass attempt.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Pittsburgh won five of last six series games.
Steelers won 38-16/23-6 in last two visits to Washington.
Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Vikings (-4) @ Jaguars
Vikings (6-2)
Minnesota lost two of last three games, after a 5-0 start.
Vikings allowed 31-30 points in their two losses.
Last three games, Vikings were outscored 42-24 in first half.
Vikings are 9-2-1 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 6-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-3
QB Darnold is 27-37 as an NFL starter, 6-2 with Vikings.
Minnesota is 6-1-2 ATS in last nine games as road favorite.
Minnesota has 17 takeaways in eight games (+4 turnovers).
Vikings are 11-5-2 ATS in last 18 games vs AFC opponents.
NFC North favorites are 14-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Vikings are 3-0 SU/ATS in outdoor games this season.
Jaguars (2-7)
Jaguars lost last two games, by 3-5 points.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 11-12 ATS coming off a loss.
Jaguars have nine turnovers in last five games (minus-5)
Team total: over 3-0 last three
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1 last five
Jaguars are 5-3 ATS last 8 games as a home underdog.
Last seven games, Jaguars gave up 27 TD’s on 71 drives.
QB Lawrence is 23-38 as an NFL starter.
Five of their last six games went over the total.
Jaguars are 11-31 ATS in last 41 games vs NFC opponents.
AFC South underdogs are 5-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Minnesota is 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS in last five series games.
Vikings won 25-16/30-12 in last two visits to Jacksonville.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Falcons (-3.5) @ Saints
Falcons (6-3)
Atlanta won five of its last six games SU.
Falcons were held to 10-17-14 points in their losses.
Four of Falcons’ last six games went over the total.
Team total: over 5-4
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1-1 last six
Atlanta is 3-0 SU/ATS on road this season.
Falcons are 6-4 ATS in last 10 games as a road favorite.
Falcons are 10-14-1 ATS last 25 games coming off a win.
QB Cousins is 82-74-2 as an NFL starter.
Falcons are 7-4 ATS in last 11 NFC South road games.
NFC South home teams are 2-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Saints (2-7)
New Orleans lost its last six games; they fired their coach Monday.
Saints are 1-6 against spread in last seven games.
Last four games, New Orleans was outscored 84-22 in second half.
Team total: over 5-4
Opponents’ team total: over 6-0 last six
Saints are 1-3 SU at home TY, losing by 3-14-13 points.
Saints are 4-8 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Last 5+ years, New Orleans is 20-17-1 ATS coming off a loss (1-5 TY).
Saints are 9-11 ATS in last 20 NFC South home games.
QB Carr is 74-92 as an NFL starter.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
Saints (+2.5) lost 26-24 at Atlanta in Week 4
Koo kicked a 58-yard FG with 0:02 left for the win.
Falcons’ two TD’s were scored on defense/special teams.
Falcons are 2-5 SU/3-4 ATS in last seven visits to New Orleans.
Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.
49ers (-3.5) @ Buccaneers
49ers (4-4)
49ers have losses by 1-3-6-10 points, wins by 13-17-12-6 points.
49ers are 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in last five post-bye games.
49ers scored 32-30-36-30 points in wins, 17-24-23-18 in losses.
Team total: under 4-4
Opponents’ team total: over 6-1-1
49ers are 7-4-1 ATS last 12 games as a road favorite.
49ers are 1-4 when they run ball for less than 180 yards.
QB Purdy is 25-9 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is +8 in turnovers in wins, minus-4 in losses.
Over is 6-2 in their games this season.
NFC West favorites are 4-5-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Buccaneers (4-5)
Short week for Tampa Bay after its overtime loss Monday.
Buccaneers are 2-4 in last six games, despite scoring 32.5 ppg.
Bucs scored 23 TD’s on their last 61 drives.
Team total: over 7-2
Opponents’ team total: over 7-2
Bucs are 2-6 ATS last eight games as a home underdog.
QB Mayfield is 46-53 as an NFL starter, 14-14 with Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay’s last six games went over the total.
Bucs are 7-3-1 ATS in last eleven games coming off a loss.
Bucs turned ball over 8 times in last four games (minus-3).
San Francisco is 7-3 in last ten series games..
49ers won/covered two of last three visits to Tampa Bay.
Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Bills (-4) @ Colts
Bills (7-2)
Bills won their last four games (3-1 ATS)
Buffalo gave up 35-23 points in its two losses (6-0 allow less than 23).
Buffalo outscored last five opponents 88-33 in second half.
Last five games, Bills are +6 in turnovers (8-2).
Team total: over 7-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-4
Buffalo is 17-12 ATS in last 29 games as a road favorite.
Bills are 27-20-1 ATS in last 48 games coming off a win.
QB Allen is 75-37 as NFL starter.
Buffalo trailed at halftime in four of last six games.
Last four Buffalo games went over the total.
AFC East favorites are 5-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts (4-5)
Indy lost last two games, by 3-8 points (5-1-1 ATS last seven)
All eight Colts games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
Underdogs are 6-2-1 ATS in Colt games this season.
Team total: under 4-3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3
Colts were outgained 415-227 LW; their one TD was scored on defense.
Colts are 6-4 ATS last 10 games as a home underdog.
Indy is 7-4 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
QB Flacco is 114-90 as an NFL starter, 1-2 with Colts.
Last four Colt games stayed under the total.
AFC South underdogs are 5-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
These teams haven’t met since 2021.
Buffalo is 5-3 SU in last eight meetings.
Bills are 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS in last five visits to Indianapolis.
Under is 4-2 in last six series games.
Patriots @ Bears (-6)
Patriots (2-7)
Patriots lost seven of their last eight games.
Last seven games, New England was outscored 110-53 in first half.
Patriots were held under 300 TY in eight of nine games.
Team total: under 5-2 last seven
Opponents’ team total: over 5-4
NE is 9-20-1 ATS in last 30 games as an underdog.
Patriots are 31-46 since Tom Brady left town.
Patriots are 5-13 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss
Rookie QB Maye is 1-3 as an NFL starter.
Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
AFC East road underdogs are 3-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Bears (4-4)
Bears are 3-0 at home, scoring 24-24-36 points.
Bears scored 24-24-36-35 points in their wins, 13-16-15-9 in losses.
Bears have outscored opponents 99-62 in second half.
Team total: under 4-3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 7-1
Under Eberflus, Bears are 11-7-1 ATS at home.
Bears are 8-3-1 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite.
Chicago is 7-5 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
Last four games, Chicago was +7 in turnovers (9-2).
Last five games, Bears are 17 of 57 on third down.
NFC North home favorites are 8-3 ATS in non-divisional games.
New England won five of last six series games.
Patriots are 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS in last three visits to Chicago.
Under is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
Titans @ Chargers (-7)
Titans (2-6)
Titans scored 17 or fewer points in their losses; 31-20 points in wins.
Tennessee is minus-11 in turnovers, with six takeaways.
Titans gained 416-400 TY last two games, their best games this year.
Team total: under 7-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-3-2
Tennessee is 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a road dog (1-3 TY).
Titans has trailed in only two of their eight games at halftime.
Tennessee has been outscored 125-56 in second half.
QB Rudolph is 9-7-1 as an NFL starter.
Tennessee is 0-7 ATS in last seven games coming off a win.
AFC South road underdogs are 3-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chargers (5-3)
Chargers scored 22-26-23-26-27 points in wins, 10-10-15 in losses.
Last six games, Chargers outscored foes 95-29 in 1st half.
Last four games, opponents are 13-51 on third down.
Team total: over 5-3
Opponents’ team total: under 6-1-1
Chargers are 10-9-1 ATS last 20 games as home favorites.
Last two games, Chargers were just 8-26 on third down.
Chargers are 15-18-4 ATS in last 36 games coming off a win.
QB Herbert is 35-36 as an NFL starter.
Under is 7-1 in their first eight games.
AFC West favorites are 7-3 ATS in non-divisional games.
Home team won last eight meetings.
Titans are 0-8 SU/1-6-1 ATS in last eight road series games.
Over is 7-3 in last ten meetings.
Eagles (-7.5) @ Cowboys
Eagles (6-2)
Eagles won last four games, scoring 28-37-28 points in last three.
Last four games, Eagles allowed 4 TD’s on 38 drives.
Philly outgained last four opponents, 1,454-858.
Team total: over 3-0 last three
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1 last four
Eagles outscored last three opponents 40-13 in first half.
Philly is 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
Eagles are 4-1 ATS away from home TY.
QB Hurts is 42-22 as an NFL starter.
Eagles are 3-9-1 ATS in last 13 NFC East road games.
Over is 3-2 in their road games TY.
Cowboys (3-5)
Dallas lost last three games, giving up 47-30-27 points.
Cowboys are 0-5 when they allow more than 17 points.
Last three games, Cowboys gave up 12 TD’s on 30 drives.
Dallas is 11-7 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
Team total: under 4-1 last five
Opponents’ team total: over 4-4
Since 2021, Dallas is 1-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Backup QB Rush is 5-1 as an NFL starter (last start, 2022).
Cowboys allowed 8.1+ yards/pass attempt in their losses.
Cowboys allowed 2.7/6.8/4.3 yards/pass attempt in their wins.
Over is 3-0 in Dallas home games this season.
Dallas is 8-1 ATS in last nine NFC East home games.
Cowboys are 8-4 SU in last 12 series games.
Eagles are 0-6 SU/ATS in last six visits to Dallas.
Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Jets (-2) @ Cardinals
Jets (3-6)
Jets are 1-5 SU/ATS in last six games.
Jets are 3-1 if they allow 17 or less points, 0-5 if they allow 23+.
Jets are 0-5 scoring less than 21 points.
Team total: under 5-1 last six
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1 last five
Jets are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
Jets are 6-12-1 ATS last 19 games coming off a win.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
Jets are 5-15-1 ATS last 21 games vs NFC opponents.
Jets are 6-12-1 ATS last 19 games with spread of 3 or fewer points..
Jets converted only 25 of last 78 third down plays.
AFC East road teams are 5-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Cardinals (5-4)
Arizona is 4-1 SU/ATS last five games, scoring 28-28 points last two games.
Cardinals are 4-7 ATS last eleven games coming off a win.
In its five wins, Arizona outscored foes 70-30 in second half.
Team total: over 5-4
Opponents’ team total: under 5-4
QB Murray is 33-41-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals scored 8 TD’s on their last 28 drives.
Arizona is 12-9 ATS in last 21 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Cardinals are 6-2 ATS last eight games vs AFC opponents.
Cardinals trailed at halftime in five of last seven games.
NFC West home teams are 6-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Cardinals won last two meetings, 30-10/28-3
Teams split their last two meetings in Arizona.
Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Lions (-3.5) @ Texans
Lions (7-1)
Detroit won/covered its last six games.
Lions are 6-1 SU/ATS in domed stadiums this year.
Last three games, Detroit converted only 10 of 31 third down plays.
Opponents have converted 13 of last 46 third down plays.
Team total: over 4-1 last five
Opponents’ team total: under 6-2
Under Campbell, Lions are 7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Detroit is 11-5 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 19-8 ATS in games coming off a win.
Lions outscored last six opponents 141-50 in first half.
Lions have outscored opponents 44-6 in last 2:00 of each half.
QB Goff is 77-55-1 as an NFL starter, 33-25-1 with Detroit.
NFC North favorites are 14-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Texans (6-3)
Houston lost two of last three games, after a 5-1 start.
Texans have five wins by 6 or fewer points.
Last four games, Texans are +7 in turnovers.
Team total: under 7-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1-1 last five
Texans are 4-0 SU at home this year (under 4-0)
Houston is 7-4 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 16-10 as an NFL starter.
Last three weeks, Texans were outscored 41-19 in second half.
Texans are 6-15-2 ATS in last 23 games vs NFC opponents.
AFC South underdogs are 5-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Texans are 4-0 SU/2-1-1 ATS in last four meetings.
Lions lost 20-13/28-21 in last two visits to Houston.
Over is 5-1 in last six series games.
Monday’s game
Dolphins @ Rams (-2.5)
Dolphins (2-6)
Dolphins lost three in row, six of last seven games.
Miami allowed 17-10 points in its wins, 31-24-16-31-28-30 in losses.
Miami threw for 227-224 yards last 2 games, with Tagovailoa back in lineup.
Tagovailoa is 33-23 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 6-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-4
Miami is 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a road underdog.
Last three weeks, Dolphins were outscored 58-31 in 2nd half.
Dolphins are 5-7 ATS in last 12 games vs NFC opponents.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 8-9 ATS in games coming off a loss
Over is 3-2 in their last five games.
AFC East road underdogs are 3-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Rams (4-4)
Rams won last three games, scoring 20-30-26 points.
Rams are 1-4 scoring less than 26 points.
Six of their eight games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Last two weeks, LA outscored foes 39-13 in second half.
Team total: under 5-3
Opponents’ team total: under 4-0 last four
Rams are 8-10 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite.
Last three games, Rams are +4 in turnovers.
Rams are 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last five games, opponents are 13-54 on third down.
Under McVay, Rams are 38-46-2 ATS coming off a win.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
NFC West favorites are 4-5-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Miami won last five series games.
Rams’ last series win was in 2001.
Last three meetings stayed under the total.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 10
Sunday’s games
Panthers vs Giants (-5.5) (@ Munich, Germany)
Panthers (2-7)
Carolina is 1-5 SU/ATS in its last five games.
Carolina is 1-4 SU/ATS away from home this year.
Last five games, Panthers are minus-7 in turnovers.
QB Young lis 3-17 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 5-3-1
Opponents’ team total: over 7-2
Carolina is 5-6 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
Panthers were outgained 427-246 in LW’s 23-22 over the Saints.
Over is 7-2 in Carolina games this year.
Panthers opponents are 57-118 on third down.
Carolina is 5-10-1 ATS last 16 NFC South home games.
Last four games, Carolina was outscored 54-33 in 2nd half.
NFC South underdogs are 6-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Giants (2-7)
Giants lost last four games, scoring five TD’s on 40 drives.
Giants are 2-2 away from home, winning at Seattle/Cleveland.
Last three games, Giants were outscored 44-19 in first half.
Team total: under 5-3
Opponents’ team total: over 3-0 last three
Giants are favored for first time this season.
Under Daboll, Giants are 4-3 ATS as a favorite.
Under Daboll, Giants are 14-9-1 ATS coming off a loss.
QB Jones is 25-44-1 as an NFL starter.
Under is 6-3 in their games this season.
NFC East favorites are 4-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Giants won last two series games, 19-16/25-3
Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Broncos @ Chiefs (-8)
Broncos (5-4)
Denver won/covered five of its last seven games.
Last two weeks, Broncos converted 17-31 third down plays.
Denver is 4-0 if they score more than 20 points, 1-4 if they score 20 or less.
Team total: over 5-3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 5-4
Denver is 3-1 ATS as a road underdog this year.
Denver is 21-17-1 ATS in last 39 games as a road underdog
In wins, Broncos are +5 in turnovers; in losses, minus-6.
Under Payton, Denver is 5-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Broncos’ last five games went over the total.
Denver is 3-6 ATS in last nine AFC West road games.
Chiefs (8-0)
Short week for Chiefs after their OT win Monday night.
Chiefs won their first eight games, going 4-4 ATS.
Kansas City is 8-0 despite being minus-6 in turnovers.
Team total: over 4-0 last four
Opponents’ team total: under 5-3
Chiefs are 17-18 ATS in last 35 games as a home favorite.
Chiefs are 4-8 ATS in last 12 AFC West home games.
QB Mahomes is 98-25 as an NFL starter.
Last six games, Chiefs are 53-92 on third down.
Chiefs have outscored opponents 103-67 in second half.
Four of Chiefs’ last six games stayed under the total.
Chiefs won 15 of last 16 meetings with Denver.
Broncos are 0-8 SU/3-5 ATS in last eight visits to Arrowhead.
Over is 4-3 in last seven series games.
Steelers @ Commanders (-3)
Steelers (6-2)
Steelers averaged 8.7/8.1 yards/pass attempt in Wilson’s first two starts.
Wilson is 126-79-1 as an NFL starter, 19-27 since 2021.
Steelers are 16-10 ATS last six games as a road underdog.
Team total: over 3-0 last three
Opponents’ team total: under 6-2
Steelers allowed 18 or fewer points in wins, 27-20 in losses.
Pittsburgh is 13-7-1 in its last 21 games coming off a win.
Pittsburgh gained 409-426 yards the last two weeks.
Steelers are 9-4 ATS in last 13 games vs NFC teams.
Steelers are 16-7-1 ATS in last 24 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
AFC North underdogs are 6-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Commanders (7-2)
Washington is 7-1 SU/ATS in its last eight games.
Rookie QB Daniels is 7-2 as an NFL starter.
Commanders are 4-0 in games decided by less than 7 points.
Last four games, Commanders are +5 in turnovers.
Team total: over 7-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-4
Washington allowed 37-30 points in their two losses.
Washington converted 43 of last 86 third down plays.
Commanders are 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Commanders are 5-1 ATS in last six games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last three games, Washington averaged 8.0/7.8/9.5 yards/pass attempt.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Pittsburgh won five of last six series games.
Steelers won 38-16/23-6 in last two visits to Washington.
Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Vikings (-4) @ Jaguars
Vikings (6-2)
Minnesota lost two of last three games, after a 5-0 start.
Vikings allowed 31-30 points in their two losses.
Last three games, Vikings were outscored 42-24 in first half.
Vikings are 9-2-1 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 6-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-3
QB Darnold is 27-37 as an NFL starter, 6-2 with Vikings.
Minnesota is 6-1-2 ATS in last nine games as road favorite.
Minnesota has 17 takeaways in eight games (+4 turnovers).
Vikings are 11-5-2 ATS in last 18 games vs AFC opponents.
NFC North favorites are 14-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Vikings are 3-0 SU/ATS in outdoor games this season.
Jaguars (2-7)
Jaguars lost last two games, by 3-5 points.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 11-12 ATS coming off a loss.
Jaguars have nine turnovers in last five games (minus-5)
Team total: over 3-0 last three
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1 last five
Jaguars are 5-3 ATS last 8 games as a home underdog.
Last seven games, Jaguars gave up 27 TD’s on 71 drives.
QB Lawrence is 23-38 as an NFL starter.
Five of their last six games went over the total.
Jaguars are 11-31 ATS in last 41 games vs NFC opponents.
AFC South underdogs are 5-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Minnesota is 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS in last five series games.
Vikings won 25-16/30-12 in last two visits to Jacksonville.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Falcons (-3.5) @ Saints
Falcons (6-3)
Atlanta won five of its last six games SU.
Falcons were held to 10-17-14 points in their losses.
Four of Falcons’ last six games went over the total.
Team total: over 5-4
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1-1 last six
Atlanta is 3-0 SU/ATS on road this season.
Falcons are 6-4 ATS in last 10 games as a road favorite.
Falcons are 10-14-1 ATS last 25 games coming off a win.
QB Cousins is 82-74-2 as an NFL starter.
Falcons are 7-4 ATS in last 11 NFC South road games.
NFC South home teams are 2-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Saints (2-7)
New Orleans lost its last six games; they fired their coach Monday.
Saints are 1-6 against spread in last seven games.
Last four games, New Orleans was outscored 84-22 in second half.
Team total: over 5-4
Opponents’ team total: over 6-0 last six
Saints are 1-3 SU at home TY, losing by 3-14-13 points.
Saints are 4-8 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Last 5+ years, New Orleans is 20-17-1 ATS coming off a loss (1-5 TY).
Saints are 9-11 ATS in last 20 NFC South home games.
QB Carr is 74-92 as an NFL starter.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
Saints (+2.5) lost 26-24 at Atlanta in Week 4
Koo kicked a 58-yard FG with 0:02 left for the win.
Falcons’ two TD’s were scored on defense/special teams.
Falcons are 2-5 SU/3-4 ATS in last seven visits to New Orleans.
Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.
49ers (-3.5) @ Buccaneers
49ers (4-4)
49ers have losses by 1-3-6-10 points, wins by 13-17-12-6 points.
49ers are 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in last five post-bye games.
49ers scored 32-30-36-30 points in wins, 17-24-23-18 in losses.
Team total: under 4-4
Opponents’ team total: over 6-1-1
49ers are 7-4-1 ATS last 12 games as a road favorite.
49ers are 1-4 when they run ball for less than 180 yards.
QB Purdy is 25-9 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is +8 in turnovers in wins, minus-4 in losses.
Over is 6-2 in their games this season.
NFC West favorites are 4-5-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Buccaneers (4-5)
Short week for Tampa Bay after its overtime loss Monday.
Buccaneers are 2-4 in last six games, despite scoring 32.5 ppg.
Bucs scored 23 TD’s on their last 61 drives.
Team total: over 7-2
Opponents’ team total: over 7-2
Bucs are 2-6 ATS last eight games as a home underdog.
QB Mayfield is 46-53 as an NFL starter, 14-14 with Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay’s last six games went over the total.
Bucs are 7-3-1 ATS in last eleven games coming off a loss.
Bucs turned ball over 8 times in last four games (minus-3).
San Francisco is 7-3 in last ten series games..
49ers won/covered two of last three visits to Tampa Bay.
Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Bills (-4) @ Colts
Bills (7-2)
Bills won their last four games (3-1 ATS)
Buffalo gave up 35-23 points in its two losses (6-0 allow less than 23).
Buffalo outscored last five opponents 88-33 in second half.
Last five games, Bills are +6 in turnovers (8-2).
Team total: over 7-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-4
Buffalo is 17-12 ATS in last 29 games as a road favorite.
Bills are 27-20-1 ATS in last 48 games coming off a win.
QB Allen is 75-37 as NFL starter.
Buffalo trailed at halftime in four of last six games.
Last four Buffalo games went over the total.
AFC East favorites are 5-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts (4-5)
Indy lost last two games, by 3-8 points (5-1-1 ATS last seven)
All eight Colts games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
Underdogs are 6-2-1 ATS in Colt games this season.
Team total: under 4-3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3
Colts were outgained 415-227 LW; their one TD was scored on defense.
Colts are 6-4 ATS last 10 games as a home underdog.
Indy is 7-4 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
QB Flacco is 114-90 as an NFL starter, 1-2 with Colts.
Last four Colt games stayed under the total.
AFC South underdogs are 5-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
These teams haven’t met since 2021.
Buffalo is 5-3 SU in last eight meetings.
Bills are 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS in last five visits to Indianapolis.
Under is 4-2 in last six series games.
Patriots @ Bears (-6)
Patriots (2-7)
Patriots lost seven of their last eight games.
Last seven games, New England was outscored 110-53 in first half.
Patriots were held under 300 TY in eight of nine games.
Team total: under 5-2 last seven
Opponents’ team total: over 5-4
NE is 9-20-1 ATS in last 30 games as an underdog.
Patriots are 31-46 since Tom Brady left town.
Patriots are 5-13 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss
Rookie QB Maye is 1-3 as an NFL starter.
Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
AFC East road underdogs are 3-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Bears (4-4)
Bears are 3-0 at home, scoring 24-24-36 points.
Bears scored 24-24-36-35 points in their wins, 13-16-15-9 in losses.
Bears have outscored opponents 99-62 in second half.
Team total: under 4-3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 7-1
Under Eberflus, Bears are 11-7-1 ATS at home.
Bears are 8-3-1 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite.
Chicago is 7-5 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
Last four games, Chicago was +7 in turnovers (9-2).
Last five games, Bears are 17 of 57 on third down.
NFC North home favorites are 8-3 ATS in non-divisional games.
New England won five of last six series games.
Patriots are 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS in last three visits to Chicago.
Under is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
Titans @ Chargers (-7)
Titans (2-6)
Titans scored 17 or fewer points in their losses; 31-20 points in wins.
Tennessee is minus-11 in turnovers, with six takeaways.
Titans gained 416-400 TY last two games, their best games this year.
Team total: under 7-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-3-2
Tennessee is 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a road dog (1-3 TY).
Titans has trailed in only two of their eight games at halftime.
Tennessee has been outscored 125-56 in second half.
QB Rudolph is 9-7-1 as an NFL starter.
Tennessee is 0-7 ATS in last seven games coming off a win.
AFC South road underdogs are 3-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chargers (5-3)
Chargers scored 22-26-23-26-27 points in wins, 10-10-15 in losses.
Last six games, Chargers outscored foes 95-29 in 1st half.
Last four games, opponents are 13-51 on third down.
Team total: over 5-3
Opponents’ team total: under 6-1-1
Chargers are 10-9-1 ATS last 20 games as home favorites.
Last two games, Chargers were just 8-26 on third down.
Chargers are 15-18-4 ATS in last 36 games coming off a win.
QB Herbert is 35-36 as an NFL starter.
Under is 7-1 in their first eight games.
AFC West favorites are 7-3 ATS in non-divisional games.
Home team won last eight meetings.
Titans are 0-8 SU/1-6-1 ATS in last eight road series games.
Over is 7-3 in last ten meetings.
Eagles (-7.5) @ Cowboys
Eagles (6-2)
Eagles won last four games, scoring 28-37-28 points in last three.
Last four games, Eagles allowed 4 TD’s on 38 drives.
Philly outgained last four opponents, 1,454-858.
Team total: over 3-0 last three
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1 last four
Eagles outscored last three opponents 40-13 in first half.
Philly is 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
Eagles are 4-1 ATS away from home TY.
QB Hurts is 42-22 as an NFL starter.
Eagles are 3-9-1 ATS in last 13 NFC East road games.
Over is 3-2 in their road games TY.
Cowboys (3-5)
Dallas lost last three games, giving up 47-30-27 points.
Cowboys are 0-5 when they allow more than 17 points.
Last three games, Cowboys gave up 12 TD’s on 30 drives.
Dallas is 11-7 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
Team total: under 4-1 last five
Opponents’ team total: over 4-4
Since 2021, Dallas is 1-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Backup QB Rush is 5-1 as an NFL starter (last start, 2022).
Cowboys allowed 8.1+ yards/pass attempt in their losses.
Cowboys allowed 2.7/6.8/4.3 yards/pass attempt in their wins.
Over is 3-0 in Dallas home games this season.
Dallas is 8-1 ATS in last nine NFC East home games.
Cowboys are 8-4 SU in last 12 series games.
Eagles are 0-6 SU/ATS in last six visits to Dallas.
Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Jets (-2) @ Cardinals
Jets (3-6)
Jets are 1-5 SU/ATS in last six games.
Jets are 3-1 if they allow 17 or less points, 0-5 if they allow 23+.
Jets are 0-5 scoring less than 21 points.
Team total: under 5-1 last six
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1 last five
Jets are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
Jets are 6-12-1 ATS last 19 games coming off a win.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
Jets are 5-15-1 ATS last 21 games vs NFC opponents.
Jets are 6-12-1 ATS last 19 games with spread of 3 or fewer points..
Jets converted only 25 of last 78 third down plays.
AFC East road teams are 5-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Cardinals (5-4)
Arizona is 4-1 SU/ATS last five games, scoring 28-28 points last two games.
Cardinals are 4-7 ATS last eleven games coming off a win.
In its five wins, Arizona outscored foes 70-30 in second half.
Team total: over 5-4
Opponents’ team total: under 5-4
QB Murray is 33-41-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals scored 8 TD’s on their last 28 drives.
Arizona is 12-9 ATS in last 21 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Cardinals are 6-2 ATS last eight games vs AFC opponents.
Cardinals trailed at halftime in five of last seven games.
NFC West home teams are 6-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Cardinals won last two meetings, 30-10/28-3
Teams split their last two meetings in Arizona.
Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Lions (-3.5) @ Texans
Lions (7-1)
Detroit won/covered its last six games.
Lions are 6-1 SU/ATS in domed stadiums this year.
Last three games, Detroit converted only 10 of 31 third down plays.
Opponents have converted 13 of last 46 third down plays.
Team total: over 4-1 last five
Opponents’ team total: under 6-2
Under Campbell, Lions are 7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Detroit is 11-5 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 19-8 ATS in games coming off a win.
Lions outscored last six opponents 141-50 in first half.
Lions have outscored opponents 44-6 in last 2:00 of each half.
QB Goff is 77-55-1 as an NFL starter, 33-25-1 with Detroit.
NFC North favorites are 14-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Texans (6-3)
Houston lost two of last three games, after a 5-1 start.
Texans have five wins by 6 or fewer points.
Last four games, Texans are +7 in turnovers.
Team total: under 7-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1-1 last five
Texans are 4-0 SU at home this year (under 4-0)
Houston is 7-4 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 16-10 as an NFL starter.
Last three weeks, Texans were outscored 41-19 in second half.
Texans are 6-15-2 ATS in last 23 games vs NFC opponents.
AFC South underdogs are 5-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Texans are 4-0 SU/2-1-1 ATS in last four meetings.
Lions lost 20-13/28-21 in last two visits to Houston.
Over is 5-1 in last six series games.
Monday’s game
Dolphins @ Rams (-2.5)
Dolphins (2-6)
Dolphins lost three in row, six of last seven games.
Miami allowed 17-10 points in its wins, 31-24-16-31-28-30 in losses.
Miami threw for 227-224 yards last 2 games, with Tagovailoa back in lineup.
Tagovailoa is 33-23 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 6-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-4
Miami is 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a road underdog.
Last three weeks, Dolphins were outscored 58-31 in 2nd half.
Dolphins are 5-7 ATS in last 12 games vs NFC opponents.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 8-9 ATS in games coming off a loss
Over is 3-2 in their last five games.
AFC East road underdogs are 3-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Rams (4-4)
Rams won last three games, scoring 20-30-26 points.
Rams are 1-4 scoring less than 26 points.
Six of their eight games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Last two weeks, LA outscored foes 39-13 in second half.
Team total: under 5-3
Opponents’ team total: under 4-0 last four
Rams are 8-10 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite.
Last three games, Rams are +4 in turnovers.
Rams are 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last five games, opponents are 13-54 on third down.
Under McVay, Rams are 38-46-2 ATS coming off a win.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
NFC West favorites are 4-5-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Miami won last five series games.
Rams’ last series win was in 2001.
Last three meetings stayed under the total.
