NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 11
Thursday’s game
Commanders @ Eagles (-3.5)
Commanders (7-3)
Washington is 7-2 SU/ATS in its last nine games.
Rookie QB Daniels is 7-3 as an NFL starter.
Commanders are 4-1 in games decided by less than 7 points.
Last five games, Commanders are +6 in turnovers.
Team total: over 8-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-5
Washington allowed 37-30-28 points in their three losses.
Last three games, Washington was outscored 44-25 in 2nd half.
Commanders are 2-0 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
Commanders are 4-6 ATS in last 10 NFC East road games.
Last two games, Washington gave up 164-140 rushing yards.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Eagles (6-2)
Eagles won last five games, scoring 28-37-28-34 in last four.
Last five games, Eagles allowed 4 TD’s on 51 drives.
Philly outgained last four opponents, 1,802-1,004.
Team total: over 4-0 last four
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1 last five
Eagles outscored last four opponents 54-19 in first half.
Philly is 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 games as a home favorite.
Last three games, Eagles are +7 in turnovers.
QB Hurts is 43-22 as an NFL starter.
Eagles are 8-13 ATS in last 21 NFC East home games.
Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Eagles won 11 of last 13 series games.
Coammnders are 1-5 SU/3-3 ATS in last six visits to Philly.
Over is 7-2 in last nine series games.
Sunday’s games
Ravens (-3) @ Steelers
Ravens (7-3)
Baltimore is 7-1 SU/ATS in its last eight games.
Baltimore is 7-0 if they score 28+ points, 0-3 if they score less than 28
Ravens scored 35 touchdowns on their last 78 drives.
Ravens allowed 320 PY in four of last six games.
Team total: over 7-3
Opponents’ team total: over 8-2
Ravens are 10-5 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite.
Over is 9-1 in Baltimore’s games this year.
QB Jackson is 68-26 as an NFL starter.
Ravens gave up 29+ points in three of their last four games.
Over is 5-0 in Baltimore road games this season.
Last 5 weeks, Ravens threw for 8.8+ yards/pass attempt four times.
Steelers (7-2)
Steelers won/covered their last four games.
Pittsburgh scored 37-26-28 points in Wilson’s first three starts.
Since 2014, Steelers are 12-5-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Team total: over 4-0 last three
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3
Steelers are 14-7-1 in its last 22 games coming off a win.
Pittsburgh is 11-4 ATS in last fifteen AFC North home games.
Steelers are 17-7-1 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last four games, Pittsburgh outscored opponents 75-25 in 2nd half.
Over is 5-1 in their last six games.
Last three games, Steelers scored nine TD’s on 32 drives.
Pittsburgh won seven of last eight series games.
Ravens are 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS in last four visits to Pittsburgh.
Under is 6-0 in last six series games.
Jaguars @ Lions (-13)
Jaguars (2-8)
Jaguars lost last three games, by 3-5-5 points.
Jaguars covered their last four games.
Jaguars have 11 turnovers in last six games (minus-4)
Team total: over 3-1 last four
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2 last six
Jaguars are 5-2 ATS last seven games as a road underdog.
Jaguars lost to Minnesota, despite not giving up a TD.
Backup QB Jones is 18-26 as an NFL starter.
Five of their last seven games went over the total.
Jaguars are 12-31 ATS in last 41 games vs NFC foes (3-1 TY).
AFC South underdogs are 7-10 ATS in non-divisional games.
Lions (8-1)
Detroit won its last seven games (6-1 ATS).
Last three games, Lions outscored opponents 43-11 in 2nd half.
Detroit won LW, despite Goff throwing five INT’s.
Opponents have converted 19 of last 61 third down plays.
Team total: over 4-2 last six
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3
Under Campbell, Lions are 12-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Detroit is 11-6 ATS in last 17 games vs AFC opponents.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 19-9 ATS in games coming off a win.
Lions have outscored opponents 47-13 in last 2:00 of each half.
QB Goff is 78-55-1 as an NFL starter, 34-25-1 with Detroit.
NFC North favorites are 14-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Lions won/covered last four series games.
Jaguars lost 40-14/26-19 in last two visits to Detroit.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Rams (-5) @ Patriots
Rams (4-5)
Rams won three of their last four games.
Rams are 1-5 scoring less than 26 points.
Seven of their nine games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
Last week, Rams didn’t score a TD (tried FG on last 6 drives)
Team total: under 6-3
Opponents’ team total: under 4-0-1 last five
Rams are 1-3 SU on road TY (only win in OT at Seattle)
Last four games, Rams are +4 in turnovers.
Rams are 6-11-1 ATS in last 18 games vs AFC opponents.
Rams are 11-14-2 ATS last 27 games coming off a loss.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
NFC West favorites are 4-7-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Patriots (3-7)
Patriots won two of their last three games (3-0 ATS).
Last three games, New England outscored foes 38-22 in 2nd half.
Patriots were held under 300 TY in eight of ten games.
Team total: under 5-3 last eight
Opponents’ team total: under 3-0 last three
NE is 10-20-1 ATS in last 31 games as an underdog.
Patriots are 32-46 since Tom Brady left town.
Patriots are 5-7-1 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
Rookie QB Maye is 2-3 as an NFL starter.
Over is 3-1 in their home games.
AFC East underdogs are 5-9-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
New England won five of last six series games.
Rams lost their last three visits to Foxboro.
Last three meetings stayed under the total.
Browns @ Saints (-1.5)
Browns (2-7)
Cleveland lost six of its last seven games.
Browns are 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS on road this season.
Cleveland scored 18 or fewer points in 8 of 9 games.
Browns are 2-7 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
Team total: under 8-1
Opponents’ team total: over 5-4
Browns are 8-12-1 ATS last 21 games as a road underdog.
Last three games, Browns ran ball for 77-80-79 yards.
Cleveland is 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland allowed 20+ points in eight of nine games.
AFC North underdogs are 7-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Browns are 6-6 ATS in last 12 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Saints (3-7)
New Orleans snapped 7-game losing skid LW, first game with interim coach.
Saints are 2-6 against spread in last eight games.
Last five games, New Orleans was outscored 94-25 in second half.
Team total: under 3-1 last four
Opponents’ team total: over 6-1 last seven
Saints are 2-3 SU at home TY, losing by 3-14-13 points.
Saints are 7-10 ATS last 17 games as a home favorite.
New Orleans is 8-15-2 ATS last 25 games coming off a win.
Saints are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games vs AFC teams.
QB Carr is 75-92 as an NFL starter.
Over is 3-2 in their last five games.
Saints won last two series games, 17-10/21-19
Browns are 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in last three visits to Bourbon Street.
Over is 3-3 in last six meetings.
Colts @ Jets (-4)
Colts (4-6)
Indy lost last three games, by 3-8-10 points (5-2-1 ATS last eight)
Colts are 1-5 giving up 20+ points.
Colts have played eight games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Team total: under 5-3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1 last five
QB Richardson (5-5 as NFL starter) is back as the starter.
Colts are 7-8-1 ATS last 16 games as a road underdog.
Indy is 7-5 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
Colts converted 13 of last 48 third down plays.
Four of last five Colt games stayed under the total.
AFC South road underdogs are 3-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jets (3-7)
Jets are 1-6 SU/ATS in last seven games.
Jets are 3-1 if they allow 17 or less points, 0-6 if they allow 23+.
Jets are 0-6 scoring less than 21 points.
Team total: under 6-1 last seven
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1 last six
Jets are 5-10 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite.
Jets are 6-10 ATS last 16 games coming off a loss.
Under is 3-1 in their home games.
Jets are 1-4 SU/ATS since their coaching change.
Jets converted 11 of last 25 third down plays.
AFC East home favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts won three of last four series games.
Teams haven’t met since 2021.
Colts are 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS in last five series games..
Average total in last four meetings: 61.3 (over 3-1).
Vikings (-6) @ Titans
Vikings (7-2)
Minnesota won its last two games, giving up 13-7 points.
Vikings allowed 31-30 points in their two losses.
Last four games, Vikings were outscored 49-27 in first half.
Vikings are 9-3-1 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 6-3
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3
QB Darnold is 28-37 as an NFL starter, 7-2 with Vikings.
Minnesota is 6-2-2 ATS in last ten games as road favorite.
Minnesota has 19 takeaways in nine games (+3 turnovers).
Vikings are 11-6-2 ATS in last 19 games vs AFC opponents.
NFC North favorites are 14-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Vikings are 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS on the road this season.
Titans (2-7)
Titans scored 17 or fewer points in their losses; 31-20 points in wins.
Tennessee is minus-11 in turnovers, with six takeaways.
Titans have trailed in only three of nine games at halftime.
Team total: under 7-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-3-2
Tennessee is 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home dog.
Tennessee has been outscored 139-66 in second half.
QB Levis is 4-11 as an NFL starter.
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in last six games coming off a loss.
AFC South home teams are 7-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Minnesota is 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS in last six series games.
Vikings split their last two visits to Nashville.
Favorites are 4-1 ATS in last five meetings.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Raiders @ Dolphins (-7.5)
Raiders (2-7)
Raiders are 0-5 SU/2-3 ATS in last five games
Raiders have 19 turnovers in nine games (minus-14).
Raiders are 1-6 SU/1-5-1 ATS last seven post-bye games.
Team total: over 5-4
Opponents’ team total: over 6-3
Raiders are 20-14 ATS last 34 games as a road underdog.
Raiders haven’t led a game at halftime since Week 1.
QB Minshew is 17-27 as an NFL starter.
Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Last six games, Raiders averaged 5.6 or fewer yards/pass attempt.
AFC West road underdogs are 6-3 ATS in non-division games.
Dolphins (3-6)
Short week for Dolphins after their win in LA Monday night.
Miami allowed 17-10-15 points in its wins, 31-24-16-31-28-30 in losses.
Miami was 21-36 on 3rd down last three games, with Tagovailoa back at QB.
Tagovailoa is 34-23 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 6-2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 5-4
Miami is 0-4 ATS as a home favorite this year.
Last four weeks, Dolphins outscored foes 43-19 in 1st half, but went 1-3.
Dolphins are 26-19 ATS in last 45 games coming off a win.
Miami is 2-3 ATS TY in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Under is 3-2 in their home games.
AFC East home favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Dolphins won 10 of last 13 series games.
Raiders are 1-5 SU/2-3-1 ATS in last six visits to Miami.
Over is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
Packers (-6.5) @ Bears
Packers (6-3)
Packers won four of last five games, scoring 25.2 ppg.
Green Bay’s three losses were 34-29/31-29/14-24.
Green Bay outscored last six foes 94-46 in second half.
Team total: over 5-4
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3
Green Bay is 3-10-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.
Packers are 9-6 ATS in last 15 NFC North road games.
Last two games, Green Bay gained 422-411 total yards.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Green Bay is 3-5-1 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
Last four games, Packers were outscored 40-9 in last 2:00 of half.
Bears (4-5)
Bears lost last three games, scoring 15-9-3 points.
Bears fired their offensive coordinator Monday.
Last two games, Bears were outscored 14-0 in second half.
Team total: under 5-3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 7-2
Under Eberflus, Bears are 11-8-1 ATS at home.
Under Eberflus, Bears are 6-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Chicago is 2-10 ATS in last 12 NFC North home games.
Under Eberflus, Chicago is 11-13-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Last four games, Chicago was +8 in turnovers (10-2).
Last six games, Bears are 18 of 71 on third down.
Green Bay won last 11 series games, covered last 10.
Packers are 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS in last nine visits to Chicago.
Over is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
Falcons @ Broncos (-2.5)
Falcons (6-4)
Atlanta won five of its last seven games SU.
Falcons were held to 10-17-14-17 points in their losses.
Three of Falcons’ last four games stayed under the total.
Team total: under 3-1 last four
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2-1 last seven
Atlanta is 3-1 SU/ATS on road this season.
Falcons are 14-13 ATS in last 27 games as a road underdog.
Falcons are 3-5 ATS last eight games coming off a loss.
Falcons are 7-14 ATS last 21 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Cousins is 82-75-2 as an NFL starter.
Falcons are 3-8 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC teams.
NFC South road underdogs are 6-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Broncos (5-5)
Denver lost its last two games, outscored 23-0 in 2nd half.
Last three weeks, Broncos converted 24-44 third down plays.
Denver is 4-0 if they score more than 20 points, 1-5 if they score 20 or less.
Team total: over 5-4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 6-4
Denver is 2-0 ATS as a home favorite this year.
Since 2015, Denver is 16-26-4 ATS as a road underdog
In wins, Broncos are +5 in turnovers; in losses, minus-6.
Under Payton, Denver is 6-6 ATS coming off a loss.
Five of Broncos’ last six games went over the total.
AFC West home favorites are 9-4 ATS in non-division games.
Atlanta won four of last five meetings.
Falcons won two of last three visits to Denver.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Seahawks @ 49ers (-6.5)
Seahawks (4-5)
Seahawks lost five of last six games, after a 3-0 start.
Seattle allowed 42-29-36-31-26 points in losses, 20 or less in wins.
Seahawks are 0-4 ATS last four post-bye games.
Team total: over 7-2
Opponents’ team total: over 7-2
QB Smith is 34-42 as an NFL starter, 22-23 with Seattle.
Last two games, Seahawks were outscored 40-14 in second half.
Seattle is 5-7 ATS in last 12 NFC West road games.
Over is 6-3 in their games this season.
Seattle turned ball over nine times in last four games (minus-4)
49ers (5-4)
49ers won their last two games, by 6-3 points.
49ers held last two opponents to 292-215 yards.
Last two games, 49ers outgained opponents, 882-507.
Team total: under 5-4
Opponents’ team total: over 6-2-1
49ers are 13-8 ATS last 21 games as a home favorite.
49ers are 2-4 when they run ball for less than 180 yards.
QB Purdy is 26-9 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is +7 in turnovers in wins, minus-4 in losses.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
49ers are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in last five meetings.
Seahawks are 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in last three visits to Santa Clara.
Under is 4-1-1 in last six series games.
Chiefs @ Bills (-2.5)
Chiefs (9-0)
Chiefs are 9-0, winning last three games by 7-6-2 points.
Last three games, Chiefs were held to 87.7 rushing yards/game.
Kansas City is 9-0 despite being minus-6 in turnovers.
Team total: over 4-1 last five
Opponents’ team total: under 6-3
In his career, Mahomes is 12-1-1 ATS as an underdog.
Chiefs are 12-19 ATS in last 31 games coming off a win.
QB Mahomes is 99-25 as an NFL starter.
Chiefs are 8-5 ATS last 13 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last seven games, Chiefs are 60-108 on third down.
Chiefs have outscored opponents 109-67 in second half.
Five of Chiefs’ last seven games stayed under the total.
Bills (8-2)
Bills won their last five games (4-1 ATS)
Buffalo gave up 35-23 points in its two losses (7-0 allow less than 23).
Buffalo outscored last five opponents 98-40 in second half.
Last six games, Bills are +8 in turnovers (12-4).
Team total: over 8-2
Opponents’ team total: under 6-4
Buffalo is 9-10-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite.
Bills are 28-20-1 ATS in last 49 games coming off a win.
QB Allen is 76-37 as an NFL starter.
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Bills are 17-5-1 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last five Buffalo games went over the total.
AFC East home favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Road team won last four series games.
Chiefs won/covered their last four visits to Buffalo.
Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Bengals @ Chargers (-1.5)
Bengals (4-6)
Bengals gave up 35+ points in their last four losses.
Bengals are 4-1 if they allow 24 or fewer points, 0-5 if they allow more than 24.
Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Team total: over 6-4
Opponents’ team total: over 6-3-1
Bengals are 8-3-1 ATS in last 12 games as a road underdog.
Bengals won three of last four road games SU.
Cincinnati is 21-11-1 ATS in last 33 games coming off a loss.
Bengals are 4-7-1 ATS in last 12 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in games decided by fewer than 7 points.
QB Burrow is 38-30-1 as an NFL starter.
AFC North road teams are 11-4 ATS in non-division games.
Chargers (6-3)
Chargers won/covered their last three games.
LA scored 22-26-23-26-27-27 points in wins, 10-10-15 in losses.
Last six games, Chargers outscored foes 108-36 in 1st half.
Team total: over 6-3
Opponents’ team total: under 6-2-1
Chargers are 11-9-1 ATS last 20 games as home favorites.
Last five games, opponents are 16-60 on third down.
Chargers are 16-18-4 ATS in last 38 games coming off a win.
QB Herbert is 36-36 as an NFL starter.
Under is 7-2 in their first nine games.
AFC West favorites are 9-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chargers won last three series games.
Bengals covered last five road series games.
Under is 5-1 in last five meetings.
Monday’s game
Texans (-7.5) @ Cowboys
Texans (6-4)
Houston lost 3 of last 4 games, all decided by 4 or fewer points.
Texans have five wins by 6 or fewer points.
Last five games, Texans are 2-3, despite being +10 in turnovers.
Houston lost 26-23 LW, after leading 23-7 at halftime.
Team total: under 7-3
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1-1 last six
Texans are 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS on road this year
Houston is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 16-11 as an NFL starter.
Last three weeks, Texans were outscored 60-19 in second half.
Texans are 7-15-2 ATS in last 24 games vs NFC opponents.
AFC South favorites are 4-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Cowboys (3-6)
Dallas lost last four games, giving up 47-30-27-34 points.
Cowboys are 0-6 when they allow more than 17 points.
Last four games, Cowboys gave up 16 TD’s on 42 drives.
Dallas is 11-8 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
Team total: under 5-1 last six
Opponents’ team total: over 5-4
Since 2021, Dallas is 1-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Backup QB Rush is 5-2 as an NFL starter (most starts, 2022).
Cowboys averaged 1.5 yards/pass attempt last week.
Cowboys allowed 2.7/6.8/4.3 yards/pass attempt in their wins.
Over is 3-1 in Dallas home games this season.
Dallas is 8-5 ATS in last 13 games vs AFC opponents.
Dallas is 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in last five series games.
Texans lost last three visits to Dallas, by 28-4-3 points.
Five of last six meetings stayed under the total.
