Cnotes January's NBA POD'S - Trends - Stats - News !

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Sunday, January 19

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Minnesota at Iowa: What bettors need to know
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Minnesota Golden Gophers at Iowa Hawkeyes (-9, OFF)

It's not easy getting attention in the Big Ten sometimes. With Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State garnering much of the national spotlight, teams like Iowa and Minnesota - which meet Sunday on the Hawkeyes' home court - can get lost in the shuffle. The Hawkeyes have claimed some attention after winning at Ohio State a week ago, moving up in the national rankings because of it, while the Gophers are still looking for that attention-grabbing win.

Beating the Hawkeyes would certainly help first-year coach Richard Pitino's national cred, but that won't be easy. Iowa's only losses this year have been to nationally-ranked Villanova, Iowa State and Wisconsin, and the Hawkeyes have won 19 straight at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Still, Pitino's squad took Michigan State to overtime on the road and is coming off its own win over the Buckeyes as well.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network

LINE: Iowa are currently 9-point home faves. The total is currently off the board.

ABOUT MINNESOTA (14-4, 6-8-1 ATS): One of the big — though not literally — weapons the Gophers have at their disposal is 5-9 point guard DeAndre Mathieu, who continues to improve at his position as he learns on the job. The junior college transfer has been the starter from the beginning of this season, and Pitino sees him as a valuable asset going forward as he continues to learn how to play. “He needs to stop trying to drive in amongst the trees when there's two or three guys in there,” Pitino told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. “He's got to be smarter about his attempts, and (against Ohio State), he was about to drive it, they backed up, he knocked down two or three open shots, which was big.”

ABOUT IOWA (14-3, 10-5 ATS): The Hawkeyes are hoping some home cooking can help lead them to a conference title. Iowa will host each of the top three teams in the league standings as well as Ohio State in the coming weeks, and with Carver-Hawkeye Arena scheduled to be sold out for each of them, the Hawkeyes should have quite an advantage. “We're just really excited that it's going to be like that,” Iowa coach Fran McCaffery told the Iowa City Press-Citizen. “I don't think there is any question we'd all agree that you're going to play better in that atmosphere.”

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meeting in Iowa.
* Minnesota is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Iowa.
* Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.

TIP-INS:

1. The Golden Gophers rank No. 1 in the Big Ten in both steals per game (8.4) and free-throw percentage (.755).

2. Iowa F Melsahn Basabe has posted a double-double in each of the Hawkeyes' last two games.

3. The Hawkeyes have gotten the better of the Gophers in this matchup, leading 54-40, including winning the last matchup by 21.

 

[CNOTES]

Fact or Fiction

January 17, 2014


The calendar year is now said and done with, and that means that we are right around the halfway point of the NBA season. Check out some of the hot topic items as we head into 2014 for NBA betting fans, as we decipher which are fact and which are fiction.

FACT

The Magic May as Well Be Called the Tragic: The Magic have lost nine straight games, and though they are consistently being praised for "playing hard" by head coach Jacque Vaughn, they flat out stink when they don't have center Nik Vucevic in the fold. Vucevic is really the only legit big man this team has, and the Magic have been getting destroyed on the glass while he recovers from his concussion. Don't expect things to get any better as the days go on for what might be the worst team in the NBA.

The Pacers Should Be Afraid of the Heat with Greg Oden: The Heat are never going to get more than 15 or 20 minutes per game out of Oden, but he looked strong in the paint in his limited time out there on Wednesday in his first game in over four years. The big man has some skills for sure if he can stay healthy, and if Miami properly manages him, he might finally be the force which can body with C Roy Hibbert in the paint to give the Pacers all sorts of troubles.

The Blazers Being the Best in the Northwest: Though we aren't sure whether the Trail Blazers are going to ultimately end up being in a position to do well in the playoffs this year, they have a team which is setup well to succeed in the regular season in 2014. Having a couple big time rebounders will help out a lot, but the bottom line is that there are a bunch of great three-point shooters on this team as well. Outside of the exchange of Kevin Durant for LaMarcus Aldridge, there might not be another position on the court where we would take Oklahoma City, the prohibitive favorite at the start of the season in the Northwest Division, over Portland.

FICTION

Houston Having a Problem After the OKC Loss: The Rockets only scored 19 points in the second-half against Oklahoma City on Thursday, and while that’s no doubt a historic head-scratcher, I still don't think it's the end of the world. ESPN and the likes are saying that this team has all sorts of problems, but I just don't see it. The time is going to come when the ball is going to get back into the paint with C Dwight Howard, and when it does that and the team gets back to playing inside-out basketball, it will be just fine, just as it was when it scored 73 points in the first half in that same game against the Thunder.

Miami Being a Team to Worry About After Three Straight Losses: Get real if you really believe this. The Heat have lost and failed to cover three straight games, but that just doesn't matter. In case you've missed it, the rest of the Eastern Conference is really bad, and Miami isn't going to care if it has to play on the road in the playoffs. The Heat are winning the Southeast Division, and they are going to be, at absolute worst, the No. 2 seed in the East. That's good enough for this team to be the favorites to win it all regardless of whether it wins 48 games or 68 games.

New Orleans Having the Longest Losing Streak in the Western Conference: The poor Pelicans. They have lost six games in a row, but they have faced a brutally tough schedule throughout the streak. They have had to take on the Rockets, Spurs, Mavericks (twice), Heat and Pacers, and the fact of the matter is that the last three of those games were all ones which could have gone the other way. There are going to be plenty of examples this year of the Pelicans covering games which they lose, and these last three against the three teams from the Lone Star State have been amongst those examples.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday Afternoon Tips

January 19, 2014


Clippers at Pistons - 1:05 PM EST

Los Angeles: 28-14 SU, 24-18 ATS
Detroit: 17-23 SU, 17-22-1 ATS

The Clippers continue a seven-game road swing, coming off Saturday's 106-92 setback at Indiana that snapped a five-game hot streak. Los Angeles owns a solid 6-1 SU/ATS record in the last seven contests off a defeat, while dropping consecutive road games just twice this season. Doc Rivers' club has struggled on the highway against Eastern Conference foes, posting a 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS record, including losses at Cleveland and Orlando.

The Pistons rallied past the Wizards on Saturday night, 104-98 to win their third game in four tries. Since December 8, Detroit has lost eight of its past 10 contests at the Palace of Auburn Hills, which includes an ugly defeat to Utah on Friday, 110-89 as seven-point favorites. The Pistons have lost six of the last seven meetings with the Clippers, including three straight home defeats.

Mavericks at Cavaliers - 1:05 PM EST

Dallas: 24-18 SU, 23-19 ATS
Cleveland: 15-25 SU, 18-22 ATS

The Mavericks put together one of their poorer efforts of the season in Saturday's 127-111 home defeat to the Blazers, as Dallas heads to Cleveland. Rick Carlisle's club has performed well on the highway over the last month, winning six of their last eight away contests, including Friday's 110-107 triumph at Phoenix as a short favorite. The defense has disappeared of late for the Mavs, allowing at least 127 points in each of their last two losses, while going 4-1 to the 'over' the last five games.

The Cavaliers are the best home underdog in the league, putting together an 8-1 ATS record, including outright wins over the Bulls, Nuggets, and Clippers. Cleveland finished off an up-and-down five-game road trip with a 117-109 triumph at Denver as seven-point underdogs, but the Cavs are just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS the last six games off a win. The Cavs have struggled against the Mavericks recently, losing five of the last six meetings, including an eight-point loss at Quicken Loans Arena last season.

76ers at Wizards - 2:05 PM EST

Philadelphia: 13-27 SU, 16-24 ATS
Washington: 19-20 SU, 21-18 ATS

The Wizards keep getting opportunities to push above the .500 mark, but somehow stub their toe. Washington fell at home to Detroit on Saturday, 104-98 to snap a three-game winning streak, as the Wizards blew an eight-point halftime lead. Randy Wittman's club has split two meetings with the Sixers this season, as the road team has won each time. The Wizards have covered just twice in their last seven chances as a road favorite, which includes outright losses to the Bucks, Raptors, and Mavericks.

The Sixers have lost 15 of 20 games away from the Wells Fargo Center, while dropping six of their past seven overall. Since winning the final four games of a West Coast swing earlier this month, Philadelphia has suffered double-digit defeats at Cleveland and Chicago. The offense has struggled of late for Philadelphia, topping the 100-point mark just once in the last seven games.

Raptors at Bobcats - 2:05 PM EST

Toronto: 20-18 SU, 23-15 ATS
Charlotte: 17-25 SU, 22-18-2 ATS

The Raptors squandered a 19-point lead in Sunday's 112-106 home defeat to the Lakers, as Toronto heads to Charlotte as a five-point road favorite. Dwane Casey's squad has covered 11 of the last 13 games in spite of Sunday's setback, but the Raptors have lost three straight contests on the highway. Toronto is playing with double-revenge on Monday after losing twice to Charlotte this season, including a 104-102 overtime defeat last month.

Kemba Walker hit the game-winning jumper in that victory over the Raptors, but the electric Charlotte guard is out indefinitely after suffering an ankle injury in Friday's overtime loss to Miami. The Bobcats have lost four of their last six games at Time Warner Cable Arena, while going 'over' the total in eight of the past 10 contests overall.

Nets at Knicks - 2:35 PM EST

Brooklyn: 16-22 SU, 18-20 ATS
New York: 15-24 SU, 16-24 ATS

The last time these two underachieving rivals hooked up at Barclays Center, the Knicks destroyed the Nets, 113-83 in early December as short favorites. Brooklyn has actually played better since that rout, winning 11 of its past 19 games, including Thursday's 127-110 victory over the Hawks in London. The Nets are expected to get point guard Deron Williams back in the lineup after missing the last five games with an ankle injury. However, Brooklyn won four of five times with Williams sidelined, while the Nets are 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven contests overall.

The Knicks look to bust out of a three-game funk following Friday's home loss to the Clippers. New York started the New Year with six consecutive covers, but Mike Woodson's team has failed to cash in its last four games, while posting a 2-6 ATS record the past eight contests at Madison Square Garden. Playing during the daytime has been a disaster for the Knicks, failing to cover in all four matinee contests this season.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Super Bowl odds and ends.........

-- 20 years ago, Dallas beat Buffalo 30-13, a pair of #1 seeds; since then, this will be only second Super Bowl between #1 seeds-- last one was when the Saints beat Peyton Manning and the Colts four years ago.

-- Underdogs won four of last six Super Bowls, covered five of last six.

-- NFC teams won four of last six Super Bowls.

-- Eight of ten playoff games this year stayed under the total.

-- Since 1996, teams that scored 40+ points in a playoff game are 3-23-2 vs the spread in their next game. Thanks to Dennis for that knowledge.

-- Super Bowl opened anywhere from pick/Seattle -2, then ton of Denver money came in-- as I type this, it is anywhere from Denver -1, -1.5 or 2, with a total of 48. Going to be an interesting two weeks.


*****

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend......

13) Broncos 26, Patriots 16-- Nine years and counting without a title for the Patriots; in other words, no titles since Spygate. Denver had two drives that took over 7:00. The better team won.

12) Seahawks 23, 49ers 17-- Home team has now won 10 of last 11 series games between these two division rivals.

11) Twitter almost exploded after Richard Sherman's rant with Erin Andrews on the FOX post-game interview; most who had opinions sided along racial lines. My take: If you don't want to listen to him, beat him.

10) 98 underclassmen declared for the NFL Draft; there are seven rounds in the draft, 32 teams drafting, so that is 224 picks. Add in the 400+ seniors who would like to be drafted, and there will be a lot of disappointed young men when draft is over.

9) If you care about such things, Peyton Manning yelled "OMAHA" 33 times Sunday, raising $24,800 for his charity foundation. Eight companies kicked in $100 each for every time he said it in Sunday's game.

8) Coming into Sunday's game, Brady/Manning combined for 343 wins, the most combined wins for any two opposing starting QBs in a playoff game.

7) I was looking at a table with local NFL markets' TV ratings for their teams' games; not surprisingly, ratings paralleled teams' won-lost records. Seattle/Kansas City's ratings were way up; Atlanta/Houston's took a dive.

6) Oregon State 80, Oregon 72-- Ducks have now lost four games in row after starting season 13-0- they allowed 89.5 ppg in the four losses.

5) Looks like ESPN will dump Brent Musburger as the play/play guy on its #1 Saturday night college football game; they'd like him to work on their new SEC Network, which debuts in August. Chris Fowler is the favorite to replace Musburger; my opinion is that Rece Davis would be a better choice.

4) Some enterprising journalist needs to find former NC State football coach Tom O'Brien and ask him what went on between him and Russell Wilson that led to Wilson leaving NC State for Wisconsin, without having to sit out a year? O'Brien is now an assistant coach at Virginia.

3) This could happen; how about a second round NCAA tournament game with Minnesota-Louisville, Rick Pitino vs Richard Pitino? Good theater. Wonder who Mrs Pitino would be rooting for?

2) Apple commercial with Robin Williams narrating from Dead Poets' Society is excellent; whoever is doing Apple's commercials deserves a raise- the one they did at Christmas was also really well done.

1) Jimmy Sexton is an agent; he reps five of the 14 SEC football coaches, as well as Jimbo Fisher and Jim Mora; his 14 college coaches earned a total of around $20M this past season. He's the Scott Boras of college football.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, January 20

Hot teams
-- Cleveland won four of last six games, covered last five home games. Mavericks won four of last six games, covered last three on road.
-- Clippers won five of their last six games. Detroit won three of four.
-- Toronto won four of last six games, covered eight of last ten.
-- Wizards won three of their last four games.
-- Nets won six of their last seven games.
-- Memphis won last five games, all by 7 or less points.
-- Heat won last two games, after losing previous three.
-- Chicago won seven of its last nine games. Lakers won last two games, after losing previous six.
-- Portland won its last five games, all by 8+ points. Rockets won six of their last eight games.
-- Pacers won/covered their last four games.

Cold Teams
-- Charlotte lost five of its last seven games.
-- 76ers lost six of their last seven games.
-- New York lost last three games, by 10-28-14 points.
-- Pelicans lost last eight games, covered three of last four.
-- Hawks lost five of their last seven games.
-- Warriors lost three of their last five games.

Series records
-- Cavaliers lost five of last six games with Dallas.
-- Clippers won six of last seven games with Detroit.
-- Bobcats won their last three games with Toronto.
-- 76ers won eight of last eleven games with Washington.
-- Knicks won nine of last twelve games with Brooklyn.
-- Pelicans lost their last four visits to Memphis.
-- Heat won last nine vs Atlanta, covered five of last six.
-- Lakers lost three of last four games with Chicago.
-- Rockets won three of last four games with Portland.
-- Pacers won four of last five games with Golden State.

Totals
-- Last four Cleveland-Dallas games stayed under total.
-- Last seven Clipper road games went over the total.
-- Last six Toronto road games stayed under the total. Five of last six Charlotte games went over.
-- Five of last six Philly road games stayed under; four of Washington's last five home games went over.
-- Three of last four Brooklyn games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Memphis road games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Miami road games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-2 in Chicago's last 11 home games; four of last five Laker road games went over.
-- Nine of last twelve Portland road games went over.
-- Last five Indiana road games stayed under the total.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, January 20

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Trend Report
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1:00 PM
LA CLIPPERS vs. DETROIT
LA Clippers are 4-14 SU in their last 18 games when playing on the road against Detroit
LA Clippers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
Detroit is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing LA Clippers

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. CLEVELAND
Dallas is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Cleveland's last 19 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Dallas

2:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Washington is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Philadelphia

2:00 PM
TORONTO vs. CHARLOTTE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road
Charlotte is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Charlotte is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Toronto

2:30 PM
BROOKLYN vs. NEW YORK
Brooklyn is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against New York
Brooklyn is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New York
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of New York's last 19 games when playing Brooklyn
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New York's last 9 games

5:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. MEMPHIS
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
New Orleans is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Memphis's last 8 games at home
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

5:30 PM
MIAMI vs. ATLANTA
Miami is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

8:00 PM
LA LAKERS vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the LA Lakers last 9 games when playing on the road against Chicago
LA Lakers are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chicago's last 13 games at home

8:00 PM
PORTLAND vs. HOUSTON
Portland is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Portland
Houston is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Portland

10:30 PM
INDIANA vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Indiana's last 23 games when playing Golden State
Indiana is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Golden State is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, January 20

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Bank Shots: NBA's weekly betting news and notes
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For the week of Jan. 12-18

Hottest ATS - Portland Trail Blazers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)

The league's biggest first-half surprise isn't going away anytime soon. The Trail Blazers put themselves on a 60-win pace with a perfect week, covering the spread with comfortable victories over the Cleveland Cavaliers, San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks. Portland is on a five-game winning streak that has seen it average better than 113 points per game - bolstering the league's top offense while moving the team to the top of the Western Conference standings. Whether the Blazers stay there will depend on how they fare this week (more on that later.)


Coldest ATS - New York Knicks (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS)

It was another difficult week in Manhattan, as the Knicks failed to take advantage of the momentum created by their season-high five-game winning streak (capped by an overtime win over Phoenix to start the week.) Matched up against a pair of elite defenses in Charlotte and Indiana and the undermanned but still-dangerous Los Angeles Clippers, New York dropped all three games by double digits to fall 10 games under .500 yet again. Things get a little easier for the Knicks over the coming week, as they'll play all four games at Madison Square Garden.


Best Over play - Indiana Pacers (3-0 SU, 3-0 O/U)

Heaven help the Eastern Conference if the Pacers continue to score as frequently as they did over the past week. Armed with the league's stingiest defense but an offensive attack that still ranks below league average, Indiana broke out in a big way this past week, averaging 113 points - more than 15 points above their season mark - in convincing victories over the Kings, Knicks and Clippers. Paul George has been his usual efficient self, while Lance Stephenson has proven to be a viable second option as he bolsters his Most Improved Player credentials.


Best Under play - Philadelphia 76ers (1-2 SU, 0-3 O/U)

While the Pacers emerged as a major surprise on the Over last week, the 76ers were certainly the most unexpected Under play. Philadelphia spent time as the league's most prolific offense, but those days appear to be far behind it now; the 76ers needed just 95 points to dispose of Charlotte, then managed only 86 in a loss to the Miami Heat and 78 in a thumping at Chicago. It's the continuation of a disturbing trend for Philadelphia, which ranked 10th in scoring in November, slipped to 12th in December and is 19th so far in January.


Surveying the schedule

The Trail Blazers' only weakness is on the defensive side of the ball, where they allow 102.9 points per game - tied for the third-highest mark in the Western Conference. Portland has a steady diet of prolific opponents on the schedule this coming week; it opens with road games against Houston (105.1 points per game) and Oklahoma City (105.3) before returning home for dates against Denver (103.3) and Minnesota (106.4). Expect points a-plenty - and lofty over/under totals to reflect that.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, January 20

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Nets at Knicks: What bettors need to know
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Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks (+2, 193)

The resurgent Brooklyn Nets are back on the right side of the playoff bubble, and they'll try to stay there when they travel across the city to face the rival New York Knicks on Monday. The Nets have won six of their last seven to climb into a tie for seventh place in the Eastern Conference. The Knicks are one of the teams chasing them, but they've lost three straight to fall two games off the pace.

The Nets are playing stateside for the first time since a 127-110 win over Atlanta in London on Thursday in which they got 29 points from Joe Johnson, who has averaged 24.4 points over the past five games. "Joe has been off the charts," Brooklyn coach Jason Kidd told reporters. "Not just the last few games, but the whole season." The Nets won the first inter-borough matchup of the season, 113-83 on Dec. 5 in Brooklyn.

TV: 2:30 p.m. ET, YES (Brooklyn), MSG (New York)

LINE: The line opened with the Knicks as 2-point home dogs. The total opened at 193.

POWER RANKINGS: Brooklyn (-6) - New York (-6.1) + home court (-3) = New York -3.1

ABOUT THE NETS (16-22, 18-20 ATS): Brooklyn has been winning without point guard Deron Williams (13.6 points, 6.9 assists), who has missed the past five games with a sprained ankle and will be a game-time decision. Shaun Livingston has played well in Williams' absence, averaging 11.6 points and 5.8 rebounds over the past five contests, but the Nets are hurting for depth in the backcourt. Brooklyn has lacked offensive punch since losing leading scorer Brook Lopez to a broken foot, but it has stayed afloat by playing better at the defensive end, holding six of its last seven opponents under 100 points.

ABOUT THE KNICKS (15-25, 16-24 ATS): New York has been hampered by injuries all season and will be shorthanded for Monday's matinee with forwards Metta World Peace (knee), Amar'e Stoudemire (ankle) and Kenyon Martin (ankle) all out and guard Pablo Prigioni (toe) unlikely to play. The latest round of injuries prompted coach Mike Woodson to indicate rarely-used reserve centers Cole Aldrich and Jeremy Tyler "will have to play some now." It also is likely to mean the offense will run through leading scorer Carmelo Anthony (26.1 points, 9 rebounds) even more than usual.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in New York.
* Under is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
* Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Knicks are 0-4 ATS in the last four games overall.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Knicks are 18-9 all-time on Martin Luther King Day but have lost on the holiday the past three seasons.

2. After being held out as a coach's decision twice in a span of four games, Knicks SG J.R. Smith has averaged 18 points over the past two contests.

3. The Nets, who host Orlando on Tuesday, are 5-2 in the first game of back-to-backs.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, January 20

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Pacers at Warriors: What bettors need to know
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Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors (+1, 197.5)

The Indiana Pacers are on a mission and have already won a staggering 20 games by double digits entering Monday’s road contest against the Golden State Warriors. Indiana just swept a four-game homestand by an average of 23.3 points and the matchup against the Warriors marks the opener of a five-game road trip. Golden State is beginning a five-game homestand and is just 2-3 over the past five games after defeating the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday.

The Warriors are 12-5 at home and reside in sixth place in the Western Conference and will be gunning for a huge victory. Golden State held the Pelicans to 33 second-half points in Saturday’s victory and will need a top-notch defensive outing to slay Paul George and the Pacers. George had 36 points in Indiana’s 106-92 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday, including an acrobatic reverse windmill dunk that electrified the building. The Pacers are 11-6 on the road.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE: The Warriors opened as 1-point home dogs and the total opened at 197.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Indiana (-14.3) - Golden State (-13) + home court (-3) = Golden State -1.7

ABOUT THE PACERS (32-7, 27-12 ATS): George is averaging 30.7 points over the past three games and his emergence as a borderline superstar has fueled Indiana’s strong first half. The fourth-year pro is part of the MVP chatter and he is averaging 23.6 points – a total that would be likely higher if the Pacers weren’t regularly blowing out opponents. George has scored 20 or more points 27 times, including seven 30-point efforts, and has five double-digit outings on the boards while also buying into coach Frank Vogel’s defensive philosophy. “Help one another, contest every jump shot, load up the paint and make everything tough for guys,” George said after the Pacers held the Clippers to 39.8 percent from the field.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (26-16, 19-21-2 ATS): Guard Jordan Crawford had 10 points in 13 minutes against New Orleans in his second game since being acquired from Boston. Golden State coveted Crawford to bolster its backcourt depth due to the versatility that he displayed while averaging 13.7 points and 5.7 assists with the Celtics prior to the trade. “He’s a scorer, he’s a playmaker,” star guard Stephen Curry told reporters after the win over the Pelicans. “He’ll get more comfortable as we go along but he’s shown why that was such a good trade for us. So I’m excited that he’s here.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Golden State.
* Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus the Wesstern Conference.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Indiana has lost five of its last six road games against the Warriors.

2. Pacers C Ray Hibbert has blocked five or more shots 10 times this season after having five rejections against the Clippers.

3. Golden State committed just eight turnovers against New Orleans, one off its season low.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, January 20

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Under the Cover: Three Understated NBA Trends
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Sure it’s fun to bet on those public NBA teams, the ones on ESPN or ABC every night and have stars with nicknames like “The King” or “CP 3”. But we bettors all know real value is often found in those teams running their sets and protecting the rim away from the limelight.

Here we highlight three teams and three trends that won’t make the headlines but may help boost your bank account.

Grizz Bettors Go West

Whether it’s the change in climate or the extra couple hours of shut-eye, there’s something about playing the Western Conference that is jiving for the Memphis Grizzlies and their supporters these days. The Grizz are 6-1 ATS in their last seven against teams from left side of the Continental Divide, including straight-up home wins against Oklahoma City and Sacramento last week. Whether this will continue remains to be seen but with a home date versus New Orleans Monday and a home-and-home with Houston Friday and Saturday this week bettors will certainly hope so.

The Kings of the Over

With the likes of Rudy Gay, DeMarcus Cousins, and Isaiah Thomas, the Sacramento Kings can score with the best teams in the league. The problem is that the aforementioned trio - along with the rest of the lackluster Kings – just can’t stop the best from scoring, not that this has been a problem for totals bettors. In the Kings' last six against teams with a .600 record the over has hit in all six. And with games at Houston Wednesday and against Indiana Friday this week these same bettors will look for this run to continue.

Rest Helps Suns Rise

Who even plays for the Phoenix Suns? There’s those Morris twins with the same first name and that Dragic kid who was Steve Nash’s backup a couple of years ago. Whoever they are, perhaps it is this anonymity that has made the Suns among the NBA’s best bet this season, going 25-13-1 ATS. What’s been even more impressive has been the Suns’ ability to cover the spread on a days rest, going 20-6-1 in their last 27 after a day off. And would you look at Phoenix’s schedule this week: games against Indiana, Washington, and at Cleveland on Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday respectively.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Brooklyn at New York
The Nets visit Madison Square Garden today to face a Knicks team that is coming off a 109-95 home loss to the Clippers and is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a double-digit home defeat. Brooklyn is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Nets favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-2). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, JANUARY 20

Game 701-702: LA Clippers at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 122.049; Detroit 116.851
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5; 187
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 703-704: Dallas at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 117.568; Cleveland 119.556
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 2 1/2; 207 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2 1/2); Over

Game 705-706: Philadelphia at Washington (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 106.978; Washington 121.313
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 14 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 10; 206 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-10); Under

Game 707-708: Toronto at Charlotte (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 125.124; Charlotte 115.010
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 10; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 5; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-5); Over

Game 709-710: Brooklyn at New York (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 121.115; New York 116.813
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 4 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-2); Over

Game 711-712: New Orleans at Memphis (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 113.874; Memphis 124.248
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 6 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 8; 191
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+8); Under

Game 713-714: Miami at Atlanta (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.711; Atlanta 120.598
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 5 1/2; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+5 1/2); Under

Game 715-716: Portland at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 120.407; Houston 124.806
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 4 1/2; 224
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 2 1/2; 217 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-2 1/2); Over

Game 717-718: LA Lakers at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 104.640; Chicago 122.467
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 18; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 9; 197
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-9); Over

Game 719-720: Indiana at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 122.494; Golden State 128.648
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 6; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+1); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, January 20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA CLIPPERS (28 - 14) at DETROIT (17 - 23) - 1/20/2014, 1:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 2-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 3-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (24 - 18) at CLEVELAND (15 - 25) - 1/20/2014, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 70-53 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 40-21 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in January games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after a non-conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 2-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (13 - 27) at WASHINGTON (19 - 20) - 1/20/2014, 2:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-23 ATS (-11.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 52-27 ATS (+22.3 Units) as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 312-374 ATS (-99.4 Units) in home games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 7-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 6-3 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (20 - 19) at CHARLOTTE (17 - 25) - 1/20/2014, 2:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 186-229 ATS (-65.9 Units) after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
TORONTO is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in road games this season.
TORONTO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
CHARLOTTE is 52-70 ATS (-25.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 43-58 ATS (-20.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 34-59 ATS (-30.9 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) in January games over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 32-55 ATS (-28.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 6-3 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 6-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BROOKLYN (16 - 22) at NEW YORK (15 - 25) - 1/20/2014, 2:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) as an underdog this season.
NEW YORK is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 4-3 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 5-3 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (15 - 24) at MEMPHIS (20 - 19) - 1/20/2014, 5:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 75-57 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 41-26 ATS (+12.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) in road games in January games since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. division opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 7-3 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 5-5 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (29 - 11) at ATLANTA (20 - 19) - 1/20/2014, 5:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-3 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 9-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PORTLAND (31 - 9) at HOUSTON (27 - 15) - 1/20/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
HOUSTON is 49-73 ATS (-31.3 Units) in home games in January games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 6-2 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 6-3 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA LAKERS (16 - 25) at CHICAGO (19 - 20) - 1/20/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 87-113 ATS (-37.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 39-63 ATS (-30.3 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 115-75 ATS (+32.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
CHICAGO is 59-73 ATS (-21.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 25-44 ATS (-23.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 2-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-1 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANA (32 - 7) at GOLDEN STATE (26 - 16) - 1/20/2014, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
INDIANA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
INDIANA is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 3-1 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 3-1 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Short Sheet

Monday, January 20

LA Clippers at Detroit, 1:05 ET
LA Clippers: 9-3 Over on Monday
Detroit: 10-5 ATS vs. LA Clippers

Dallas at Cleveland, 1:05 ET
Dallas: 24-11 ATS when line is +3 to -3 points
Cleveland: 11-4 Over with 2 days rest

Philadelphia at Washington, 2:05 ET
Philadelphia: 1-8 ATS away with total of 200 to 210 points
Washington: 8-1 Over after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 games

Toronto at Charlotte, 2:05 ET
Toronto: 14-6 ATS away this year
Charlotte: 13-30 ATS in January games

Brooklyn at New York, 2:35 ET
Brooklyn: 9-1 ATS away playing 6 or less games in 14 days
New York: 5-15 ATS home this year

New Orleans at Memphis, 5:05 ET
New Orleans: 33-14 ATS away after 4 or more losses
Memphis: 1-8 ATS vs. division opponents this year

Miami at Atlanta, 5:35 ET
Miami: 3-13 ATS off 2 or more straight road wins
Atlanta: 10-0 ATS at home after 2 or more straight losses

Portland at Houston, 8:00 ET
Portland: 8-1 ATS as underdogs this year
Houston: 11-2 Over after a non-conference game

LA Lakers at Chicago, 8:00 ET
LA Lakers: 3-13 ATS away off SU underdog win
Chicago: 15-5 Under at home this season

Indiana at Golden State, 10:35 ET
Indiana: 8-1 ATS playing 4 or less games in 10 days
Golden State: 6-16 ATS at home after failing to cover 2 of last 3 games

 

[CNOTES]

January's Record

*****............. 22 - 16

DOUBLE PLAYS....11 - 13

TRIPLE PLAYS.....8 - 8 - 1


Monday, January 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Dallas - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +2 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Cleveland -

L.A. Clippers - 1:00 PM ET Detroit +3.5 500 *****
Detroit -

Toronto - 2:00 PM ET Charlotte +4.5 500
Charlotte -

Philadelphia - 2:00 PM ET Washington -10 500 *****
Washington -

Brooklyn - 2:30 PM ET Brooklyn -2 500 *****
New York -

New Orleans - 5:00 PM ET Memphis -8 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Memphis -

Miami - 5:30 PM ET Atlanta +5 500
Atlanta -

L.A. Lakers - 8:00 PM ET Chicago -9 500 *****
Chicago -

Portland - 8:00 PM ET Portland +2.5 500 *****
Houston -

Indiana - 10:30 PM ET Golden State -1 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Golden State -

 

[CNOTES]

Hoop Trends - Tuesday

January 21, 2014


ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Timberwolves are 0-11 ATS (-8.77 ppg) since Dec 29, 2004 with two or more days of rest after a win where they scored at least 80 points when their DPA was minus 15 points or less.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Kings are 0-10-1 OU (-13.91 ppg) since Mar 19, 2004 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Thunder are 9-0 ATS (6.89 ppg) since Mar 17, 2013 after Serge Ibaka shot better than 66% from the field at home.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Magic are 0-10 OU (-13.80 ppg) since Nov 26, 2009 as a dog with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Magic are 9-0-1 ATS (8.40 ppg) since Jan 23, 2010 with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line.

-- The Trail Blazers are 6-0 ATS (7.08 ppg) since Jan 19, 2011 on the road after Nicolas Batum decreased his scoring by at least 15 points over their past two games.

 

[CNOTES]

Heat, Celtics hook up

January 21, 2014


Check out more NBA Odds at Sportsbook.ag!

BOSTON CELTICS (14-28) at MIAMI HEAT (29-12)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Miami -9, 197.5

After an unsuccessful road trip, the Heat look to end their struggles on Tuesday evening when they return home to face the slumping Celtics.

Miami has been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season, allowing only 98.8 PPG (9th in NBA), but in its just-completed 2-4 road trip, the club allowed 102+ points in all four defeats. Boston has been atrocious over the past month, losing 14 of 16 games SU and going 5-11 ATS. Before this slide, the team had allowed just 95.8 PPG, but that number has jumped to 103.6 PPG during the 2-14 stretch. This includes going 0-2 (SU and ATS) since getting star PG Rajon Rondo back on the court.

When these teams met earlier in the season on Nov. 9, the Heat were a 13.5-point home favorite but lost 111-110 on a Jeff Green buzzer-beating three pointer. This improved the Celtics record in this series to 12-4 ATS (8-8 SU) over the past three seasons, including 6-3 ATS (3-6 SU) in Miami. The Over is 12-4 (75%) in this series during this three-year timeframe, including 8-1 (89%) in South Beach. This season, Boston is a solid 11-10 ATS (5-16 SU) on the road, while the Heat are a poor 7-12 ATS (16-3 SU) at home. Both teams have favorable betting trends on Tuesday though, with Miami benefitting from the fact that NBA favorites with a 60% to 75% win pct. coming off an upset division loss when favored are 32-8 ATS (80%) in the past five seasons when facing a losing team. However, extremely tired (playing 4th game in 5 days) home teams revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110+ points are a mere 6-28 ATS (18%) over the past five seasons. On the injury front, SF Jeff Green (knee) is probable for Boston, while Jerryd Bayless (toe) is questionable.

The Celtics have been a poor offensive team all season with just 95.2 PPG (25th in NBA) on 43.9% FG (23rd in league) and 33.2% threes (28th in NBA). They are also tallying a subpar 42.7 RPG (21st in league) and a woeful 19.7 APG (28th in NBA), but got a lot of firepower back recently with PG Rajon Rondo returning from a torn ACL. Despite losing both games with Rondo in the lineup, he is averaging 7.0 PPG, 4.0 APG, 4.0 RPG and 1.5 SPG in just 20.5 MPG. He will need to use his speed to get into the paint and create shots for his teammates as he will be guarded by a slower player in Mario Chalmers. In the past four meetings he's had with the Heat, Rondo has posted an impressive 54 assists (13.5 APG) and just 16 turnovers (3.4 Ast/TO ratio).

SF Jeff Green (15.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG) hit a game-winner the last time these teams played on Nov. 9, finishing that contest with 23 points (5-of-8 threes) and five boards. Green is also coming off a 22-point performance against the Magic where he shot 15 free throws, and his ability to get into the paint will be a key part of this matchup. Green will also have the nearly impossible defensive assignment of containing LeBron James. PF Jared Sullinger (13.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG) will need to score the basketball as he will be going up against a relatively small frontcourt. Sullinger has averaged just 9.5 PPG over the past two contests and the Celtics will need a lot more out of him. PG Avery Bradley (14.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG) is coming off of an 18-point performance against the Magic, but made just 7-of-21 shots (0-for-5 threes). Bradley is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA and will be relied upon to shut down Dwyane Wade.

The Heat have been a highly efficient offense all season with 104.2 PPG (7th in NBA) on a league-high 50.6% FG and 37.6% threes (7th in NBA). They have also dished out 23.5 APG (5th in NBA) and rank 11th in the league with a 1.62 Ast/TO ratio. The one weakness continues to be on the boards, as they have the fewest rebounds in the league (36.6 RPG) and the NBA's fourth-worst rebounding margin (minus-3.8 RPG). SG Dwyane Wade (18.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.7 APG) sat out the past two games for Miami with a sore knee, but is expected to give it a go against the Celtics. Wade has dropped 20.7 PPG, 6.1 APG and 4.2 RPG in 32 career games in this series, finishing the Nov. 9 meeting with 18 points and seven assists. SF LeBron James (26.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 6.6 APG, 1.3 SPG) has also dominated Boston in his career with 30.1 PPG (50% FG), 6.7 RPG and 6.6 APG in 35 career meetings. This includes a 25-point, 10-assist, 8-rebound effort earlier this season when he made 9-of-13 FG. James continues to play at an MVP level, averaging 29.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 6.7 APG during the six-game road trip his team just wrapped up.

PF Chris Bosh (16.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.1 BPG) also had a strong road trip, averaging 24.3 PPG (54% FG, 8-of-18 threes), 6.8 RPG and 1.3 BPG over the final four contests. He should have a productive game against the Celtics who lack a strong interior presence defensively, and who have always struggled to guard Bosh who has 18.5 PPG, 9.1 RPG in 37 career meetings against them. Since returning from an Achilles injury, PG Mario Chalmers (9.5 PPG, 5.1 APG, 1.9 SPG) is averaging a solid 12.0 PPG, 4.7 APG, 3.3 RPG and 2.3 SPG. He will need to hold his own against Rajon Rondo, who is an elite player when healthy, but he is still not close to 100 percent after returning from a torn ACL.

 

[CNOTES]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best NBA spot bet opportunities

Letdown spot

Denver was in terrible form for the entire month of December. The Nuggets went 5-10 SU and ATS during the month. The first two weeks of January were strong, going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS, but the Nuggets have lost back-to-back games coming into Thursday’s game in Portland.

The Nuggets will have three full days of rest going into that game, and then they have Friday off before hosting Indiana Saturday night. That’s two Class-A teams in back-to-back games. On Sunday, the Nuggets will play at Sacramento, so Denver may not be too sharp after playing the Blazers and Pacers in their previous two contests.

Lookahead spot

Indiana began a five-game West Coast road trip at Golden State Monday night. The Pacers will play in Phoenix Wednesday, in Sacramento Friday, and then at Denver Saturday. In that sequence, Indiana will face just one bad team, and that’s the Kings.

Indiana just beat Sacramento 116-92 at home on January 14. That game was never close, as the Pacers led by as many as 29 points. After facing the Warriors and Suns, Indiana will play the Kings on the first night of a back-to-back set before playing in the thin air and altitude of Denver. The Pacers will be looking ahead to the Nuggets, especially since they just crushed the Kings by 24 points in their previous meeting.

Schedule spot

The Utah Jazz have had a miserable season, but they will be in a terrific scheduling spot Saturday, January 25. Utah is hosting the Washington Wizards that night, and the setup couldn’t be any better for the Jazz.

Utah will be coming into that game with a full three days of rest. It will also be just its second game in seven days after hosting Minnesota Tuesday night. Meanwhile, the Wizards will be playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah after playing in Phoenix the night before. It will also be the third game in four nights for Washington, and their fourth game of the week.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Portland at Oklahoma City
The Trail Blazers look to bounce back from last night's loss in Houston and build on their 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 games when playing with 0 days of rest. Portland is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Trail Blazers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Portland (+6). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, JANUARY 21

Game 501-502: Boston at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 111.071; Miami 124.191
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 13; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 9; 198
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-9); Over

Game 503-504: Orlando at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 111.886; Brooklyn 118.962
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 7; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 10; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+10); Under

Game 505-506: Sacramento at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 118.825; New Orleans 115.896
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 3; 199
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 1; 204
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+1); Under

Game 507-508: Portland at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 125.174; Oklahoma City 124.231
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 1; 224
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6; 215 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+6); Over

Game 509-510: Minnesota at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.309; Utah 118.046
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 7 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 3; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, January 21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON (14 - 28) at MIAMI (29 - 12) - 1/21/2014, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 12-4 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-8 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
12 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ORLANDO (11 - 30) at BROOKLYN (17 - 22) - 1/21/2014, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 5-3 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 4-4 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SACRAMENTO (14 - 25) at NEW ORLEANS (16 - 24) - 1/21/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 146-195 ATS (-68.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 5-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-4 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PORTLAND (31 - 10) at OKLAHOMA CITY (31 - 10) - 1/21/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 74-58 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 66-49 ATS (+12.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 111-74 ATS (+29.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-3 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-3 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (19 - 21) at UTAH (14 - 28) - 1/21/2014, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 6-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 6-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, January 21

Boston at Miami, 7:35 ET
Boston: 7-18 ATS away with 1 days rest
Miami: 7-3 Under home without rest

Orlando at Brooklyn, 7:35 ET
Orlando: 2-10 ATS off a home ATS win
Brooklyn: 9-4 Over at home without rest vs. opponent with rest

Sacramento at New Orleans, 8:05 ET
Sacramento: 3-13 ATS after an under game
New Orleans: 7-1 Over vs. Sacramento

Portland at Oklahoma City, 8:05 ET
Portland: 6-2 Over away after scoring 110 or more points away
OKC: 23-11 ATS home vs. opponent without rest

Minnesota at Utah, 9:05 ET
Minnesota: 3-11 ATS after an ATS win as favorite of 5 or more points
Utah: 8-2 Over after an ATS loss as a dog of 10 or more points




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, January 21

Hot teams
-- Nets won seven of their last eight games (5-3 last eight HF).
-- Trailblazers won five of their last six games. Oklahoma City won four of their last five.
-- Jazz won four of their last five home games.

Cold Teams
-- Magic lost ten of their last eleven games (0-7 last seven AU).
-- Heat lost four of their last six games. Boston lost 11 of last 12 games, covered one of last four.
-- Kings lost three of last four games but covered five of last seven. New Orleans lost eight of last nine games, but covered four of last five.
-- Minnesota lost four of its last six games.

Series records
-- Nets won four of last five games with Orlando.
-- Heat won five of last seven games with Boston, but Celtics covered the last four meetings.
-- Pelicans won four of last five games with Sacramento.
--Thunder is 0-2 vs Portland this year, losing by 7-4 points.
-- Minnesota beat Jazz by 26 Saturday, its first win in last six games vs Utah.

Totals
-- 10 of last 11 Orlando road games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Miami games went over total. 14 of 21 Boston road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six New Orleans games.
-- 15 of 21 Portland road games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Utah games went over the total.




NBA

Tuesday, January 21

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Trend Report
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7:30 PM
BOSTON vs. MIAMI
Boston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
Boston is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 10 games at home
Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home

7:30 PM
ORLANDO vs. BROOKLYN
Orlando is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Orlando's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Brooklyn's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Brooklyn's last 11 games when playing at home against Orlando

8:00 PM
SACRAMENTO vs. NEW ORLEANS
Sacramento is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Sacramento's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Sacramento
New Orleans is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Sacramento

8:00 PM
PORTLAND vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
Portland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Portland is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Portland
Oklahoma City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Portland

9:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. UTAH
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Minnesota's last 11 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Minnesota


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NBA

Tuesday, January 21

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Trail Blazers at Thunder:: What bettors need to know
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Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5, 216.5)

Kevin Durant attempts to run his streak of consecutive 30-point outings to eight when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday in a battle of Western Conference heavyweights. Durant has been on a tremendous scoring spree this month, setting an NBA-season high with 54 points last Friday against Golden State and scoring 48 on two other occasions. Portland had won five straight games before falling to the Houston Rockets on Monday.

Trail Blazers forward Nicolas Batum reinjured his fractured left middle finger in the loss to the Rockets and said after the contest that he will probably need a new splint if he is to attempt to play against the Thunder. Forward LaMarcus Aldridge had 27 points and 20 rebounds for his third 20-20 outing of this season and fifth in his career. The Thunder will be gunning for Portland in this contest after losing the first two meetings this season; the two teams are tied for second place in the Western Conference, one game behind the San Antonio Spurs.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, CSN Northwest (Portland), FSN Oklahoma (Oklahoma City)

LINE: The Thunder opened as 5,5-point home faves. The total opened at 216.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Portland (-11.5) - Oklahoma City (-12.5) + home court (-3) = Oklahoma City -4

ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (31-10, 24-17 ATS): Guard Damian Lillard had 24 points in the loss to the Rockets and his 131 3-pointers are the most in history for a player through his team’s first 41 games. Ray Allen made 130 3-pointers in Boston’s first 41 games of the 2005-06 campaign. Lillard is a little bit more concerned with how Portland bounces back as the effort wasn’t always top-notch against Houston. “They were beating us to all the loose balls and they were playing free and easy and getting whatever they wanted,” Lillard said afterward.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (31-10, 23-18 ATS): While Durant has been carrying the offense, power forward Serge Ibaka scored 20 points on 9-of-13 shooting against Sacramento on Sunday. It was the third straight game in which Ibaka scored 20 or more and he is 27-of-37 shooting during the stretch. “He is a guy that excels off of playing everybody else,” Durant said of Ibaka. “He gives himself up by setting screens and rolls to the rim and the ball finds him. He sets great screens and moves the defense. He shifts the defense with his hard rolls to the basket and you have to respect his jumper.”

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 19-5-2 in the last 26 meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Favorite is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
* Trail Blazers are 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Trail Blazers had lost seven straight games against the Thunder prior to this season’s two victories.

2. Aldridge is averaging 31.5 points and 13.5 rebounds against Oklahoma City this season.

3. Oklahoma City PG Reggie Jackson is averaging 17.5 points over the past four games and has reached double digits in eight of the last nine outings.

 

[CNOTES]

January's Record

*****............. 23 - 20

DOUBLE PLAYS....11 - 14

TRIPLE PLAYS.....8 - 10 - 1


Tuesday, January 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Orlando - 7:30 PM ET Orlando +9 500 *****
Brooklyn - Over 193.5 500

Boston - 7:30 PM ET Boston +9.5 500
Miami - Over 196.5 500

Sacramento - 8:00 PM ET Sacramento -1.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
New Orleans - Under 205.5 500

Portland - 8:00 PM ET Portland +6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Oklahoma City - Under 214.5 500

Minnesota - 9:00 PM ET Minnesota -4 500 *****
Utah - Under 202.5 500

 

[CNOTES]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best NBA spot bet opportunities


Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Covers Expert Steve Merril points out the best spot bet opportunities on the NBA schedule this week:

Letdown spot

Denver was in terrible form for the entire month of December. The Nuggets went 5-10 SU and ATS during the month. The first two weeks of January were strong, going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS, but the Nuggets have lost back-to-back games coming into Thursday’s game in Portland.

The Nuggets will have three full days of rest going into that game, and then they have Friday off before hosting Indiana Saturday night. That’s two Class-A teams in back-to-back games. On Sunday, the Nuggets will play at Sacramento, so Denver may not be too sharp after playing the Blazers and Pacers in their previous two contests.

Lookahead spot

Indiana began a five-game West Coast road trip at Golden State Monday night. The Pacers will play in Phoenix Wednesday, in Sacramento Friday, and then at Denver Saturday. In that sequence, Indiana will face just one bad team, and that’s the Kings.

Indiana just beat Sacramento 116-92 at home on January 14. That game was never close, as the Pacers led by as many as 29 points. After facing the Warriors and Suns, Indiana will play the Kings on the first night of a back-to-back set before playing in the thin air and altitude of Denver. The Pacers will be looking ahead to the Nuggets, especially since they just crushed the Kings by 24 points in their previous meeting.

Schedule spot

The Utah Jazz have had a miserable season, but they will be in a terrific scheduling spot Saturday, January 25. Utah is hosting the Washington Wizards that night, and the setup couldn’t be any better for the Jazz.

Utah will be coming into that game with a full three days of rest. It will also be just its second game in seven days after hosting Minnesota Tuesday night. Meanwhile, the Wizards will be playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah after playing in Phoenix the night before. It will also be the third game in four nights for Washington, and their fourth game of the week.