•Situational Trends of The Day
-- NEW ORLEANS is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games this season.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 108, OPPONENT 100.9.
-- MIAMI is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after a game where they made 85% of their free throws or better this season.
The average score was MIAMI 98.9, OPPONENT 90.7.
-- CHARLOTTE is 1-10 (-10.0 Units) against the 1rst half line revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 42.2, OPPONENT 55.3.
-- LA CLIPPERS are 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 46.8, OPPONENT 48.6.
-- TERRY STOTTS is 20-5 OVER (+14.5 Units) after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was STOTTS 110, OPPONENT 105.7.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- MILWAUKEE is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 92.6, OPPONENT 103.6.
-- PORTLAND is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was PORTLAND 109.3, OPPONENT 107.1.
-- MIAMI is 17-38 (-24.7 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 50.2, OPPONENT 48.1.
-- UTAH is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game this season.
The average score was UTAH 40.2, OPPONENT 50.9.
-- MONTY WILLIAMS is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games versus teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents as the coach of NEW ORLEANS.
The average score was WILLIAMS 97.5, OPPONENT 99.6.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Underdogs of +145 to +350 versus the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - off a close home loss by 3 points or less against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points.
(27-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (93.1%, +24.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -115
The average score in these games was: Team 106.4, Opponent 95 (Average point differential = +11.4)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-2, +12.7 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (79-28, +24.5 units).
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DETROIT) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games.
(75-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.0%, +47.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (58-44 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.3
The average score in these games was: Team 102.6, Opponent 100.9 (Average point differential = +1.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 53 (53.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (17-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-13).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (180-130).
-- Play Under - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.
(32-7 since 1996.) (82.1%, +24.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195.2
The average score in these games was: Team 93.8, Opponent 94.4 (Total points scored = 188.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 27 (65.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-2).
-- Play On - Road underdogs versus the 1rst half line (LA CLIPPERS) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games.
(66-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.5%, +34.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 52, Opponent 51.1 (Average first half point differential = +1)
The situation's record this season is: (8-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-9).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (171-128).
-- Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, on Saturday games.
(74-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.3%, +44.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53.8, Opponent 53.8 (Total first half points scored = 107.6)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-7).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (148-98).
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Saturday's Match-ups
#501 DETROIT @ #502 WASHINGTON
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, FSN Detroit-plus, CSN Mid-Atlantic Washington - Line: Wizards -5, Total: 200.5) - The Washington Wizards are one win away from joining the rarified air as a winning team in the Eastern Conference. The Wizards will attempt to move over the even mark and earn a fourth straight victory when they host the Detroit Pistons on Saturday. The Pistons flirted with the .500 mark in the middle of last month but have since dropped nine of 12 and are coming off a 110-89 home loss to the Utah Jazz on Friday.
Washington is not only on a winning streak but is taking care of things in impressive fashion with a pair of wins over Chicago and a 114-97 drubbing of the defending-champion Miami Heat. The Wizards are putting in strong work on both ends, highlighted by Nene’s block that ended Friday’s 96-93 win as they held the Bulls to two points in the final five minutes. Washington swept a home-and-home set from the Pistons at the end of last month and has taken the first two of a five-game homestand.
•ABOUT THE PISTONS (16-23 SU, 16-22-1 ATS): Detroit appeared to be snapping out of its funk with back-to-back wins but allowed Utah to shoot 54.4 percent and was surprisingly outrebounded 43-32 on Friday. The Pistons are at their best when the front line of Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe and Josh Smith is imposing its will but those three were largely neutralized on Friday as the Jazz stuck with a smaller lineup. Monroe and Smith each recorded double-doubles in wins over Philadelphia and Phoenix but were held to a combined eight points and three rebounds on Friday.
•ABOUT THE WIZARDS (19-19 SU, 21-17-0 ATS): Washington had been taking advantage of the weaker teams on its schedule to move into the top eight of a poor Eastern Conference but looked strong against the Bulls and the Heat with a tight eight-man rotation getting the bulk of the minutes. Trevor Booker is thriving in a return to a reserve role while John Wall continues to make improvements and is averaging 22.3 points and nine assists in the last three contests. The Wizards will attempt to pad their record as they finish up a five-game homestand with losing teams Detroit, Philadelphia and Boston.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Wizards crushed the Pistons 106-82 at home on Dec. 28 and picked up a seven-point win on the road two days later.... Detroit G Brandon Jennings is struggling to 29.4 percent from the field over the last five games.... Washington F Martell Webster is 9-for-16 from 3-point range in the last three contests.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON covered the spread 514 times, while DETROIT covered the spread 458 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON won the game straight up 641 times, while DETROIT won 333 times. In 1000 simulated games, 612 games went under the total, while 388 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, DETROIT covered the first half line 508 times, while WASHINGTON covered the first half line 492 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 582 games went under first half total, while 381 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DETROIT is 35-28 against the spread versus WASHINGTON since 1996.
--DETROIT is 45-19 straight up against WASHINGTON since 1996.
--32 of 60 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--WASHINGTON is 33-30 versus the first half line when playing against DETROIT since 1996.
--35 of 62 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Pistons are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Pistons are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Washington.
--Under is 2-0-2 in the last 4 meetings in Washington.
--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 8-1 in Pistons last 9 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Wizards are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 Saturday games.
--Over is 5-1 in Wizards last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
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#503 LA CLIPPERS @ #504 INDIANA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, NBA TV, Prime Ticket Los Angeles, FSN Indiana - Line: Pacers -8.5, Total: 198) - One of the league's hottest teams pays a visit to its best when the road-tripping Los Angeles Clippers take on the Indiana Pacers on Saturday. The Clippers have won five straight after opening a seven-game trek with a 109-95 victory at New York on Friday. They can expect a stiffer test from the Pacers, who own the NBA's best record and are 20-1 at home.
The Pacers took their turn at beating up on the Knicks on Thursday, winning 117-89 at home for their third straight victory overall and their ninth straight at home. They've set season highs for scoring in two straight games and had a season-low five turnovers against New York. "We have set a goal, and we want to be the No. 1 seed (in the Eastern Conference)," guard Lance Stephenson told reporters. "Every night I try to bring something to the table." The Clippers are trying to claim a seat among the Western Conference elite, as they sit in fourth place in the stacked standings.
•ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (28-13 SU, 24-17-0 ATS): The five-game winning streak, which matches Los Angeles' longest of the season, has come without star point guard Chris Paul (shoulder). "Nobody's really trying to do too much and that's really what you need when somebody like CP goes down, because you always worry about somebody trying to replace him," Griffin told reporters. "I think from Day 1 we've said we can't replace him. Everybody has to elevate their game." Griffin has carried the Clippers with Paul out, averaging 26.6 points during the winning streak.
•ABOUT THE PACERS (31-7 SU, 26-12-0 ATS): Indiana is the league's best defensive team and will need to give its trademark effort at that end of the floor against an explosive Clippers team. The Pacers' newfound offensive prowess is a scary proposition for opposing teams, as Paul George (22.9 points, 6.3 rebounds) continues his strong campaign and Lance Stephenson (13.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.1 assists) is enjoying a breakout season. All five starters average double figures, and former All-Star Danny Granger (9.2 points) is returning to form and providing a spark off the bench.
•PREGAME NOTES: Griffin has scored in double figures in every game this season and 41 straight dating to last season, the third-longest streak of his career.... The Pacers are 21-0 when holding opponents under 90 points. The Clippers have failed to reach 90 only twice all season.... Clippers C DeAndre Jordan has hit double digits in rebounds in 18 straight games, the fourth-longest streak in franchise history.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, LA CLIPPERS covered the spread 578 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 422 times. *EDGE against the spread =LA CLIPPERS. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA won the game straight up 641 times, while LA CLIPPERS won 340 times. In 1000 simulated games, 588 games went under the total, while 387 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, LA CLIPPERS covered the first half line 557 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 408 times. *EDGE against first half line =LA CLIPPERS. In 1000 simulated games, 595 games went under first half total, while 383 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LA CLIPPERS is 16-15 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1996.
--INDIANA is 22-10 straight up against LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--18 of 30 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--INDIANA is 15-15 versus the first half line when playing against LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--17 of 30 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Indiana.
--Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 road games.
--Over is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 Saturday games.
--Under is 15-3 in Pacers last 18 games playing on 1 days rest.
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#505 MIAMI @ #506 CHARLOTTE
(TV: 7:30 PM EST, Sun Sports Miami, SportSouth Charlotte - Line: Heat -7.5, Total: 195) - The Miami Heat look to build off the momentum of a slump-busting rout when they visit the Charlotte Bobcats on Saturday. Miami dropped the first three games of a six-game road trip - all to losing teams - before coasting to a 101-86 victory at Philadelphia on Friday in a game it led by as many as 25 points in the second half. LeBron James finished with 21 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds as the Heat survived a second straight game with a limited contribution from Dwyane Wade.
The Bobcats are already 0-2 versus Miami this season, including a one-point loss that saw the Heat score 13 straight points down the stretch to steal a home win. That was Charlotte's 14th consecutive loss in the series. Al Jefferson scored 30 points and hauled in 16 rebounds in the Bobcats' 111-101 victory at Orlando on Friday, the squad's second win in three games following a 1-8 stretch.
•ABOUT THE HEAT (28-11 SU, 17-22-0 ATS): James provided an outstanding all-around effort Friday night but did not provide much scoring until the stretch run, and Wade put forth his second straight eight-point performance. That left much of the scoring load on the shoulders of Chris Bosh, who has rebounded in a big way from a slump earlier this month. After averaging nine points on 34.3 percent shooting in a four-game span, Bosh has produced an average of 25.5 points while making 21-of-37 shots in his last two.
•ABOUT THE BOBCATS (17-24 SU, 22-17-2 ATS): Like Bosh, Jefferson has overcome a recent swoon to put up some outstanding numbers of late and appears to be hitting his stride after injuries diminished the early portions of his first season in Charlotte. The veteran big man has posted 27.3 points and 10.8 rebounds over a four-game stretch. Jefferson missed the first game against Miami in November but had 16 points, 13 boards and three steals in the one-point loss on Dec. 1.
•PREGAME NOTES: Charlotte has taken more free throws than its opponents in 16 of its 17 wins.... Heat G Norris Cole has scored in double digits in four straight games for the second time in his three-year career.... Miami is 8-1 against division opponents.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CHARLOTTE covered the spread 559 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 415 times. *EDGE against the spread =CHARLOTTE. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 605 times, while CHARLOTTE won 362 times. In 1000 simulated games, 537 games went over the total, while 443 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, CHARLOTTE covered the first half line 552 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 448 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 509 games went over first half total, while 491 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CHARLOTTE is 19-16 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--MIAMI is 27-10 straight up against CHARLOTTE since 1996.
--21 of 36 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--CHARLOTTE is 20-17 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--19 of 35 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Heat are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Heat are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Charlotte.
--Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Charlotte.
--Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Under is 5-0 in Heat last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 6-1 in Bobcats last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
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#507 PHILADELPHIA @ #508 CHICAGO
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, CSN Philadelphia, WGN Chicago - Line: Bulls -8, Total: 197) - Coming off arguably the worst game of his NBA career, Michael Carter-Williams seeks a bounce-back effort when the Philadelphia 76ers visit the Chicago Bulls on Saturday night. Carter-Williams, the likely favorite for Rookie of the Year, was overmatched by LeBron James and the physical Miami Heat in Friday's 15-point loss. He managed just seven points, two assists and one rebound - down from his season averages of 17.6, 7.0 and 5.9 entering the game.
“They got physical with him,” Sixers head coach Brett Brown told reporters. “They got up and in and showed a crowd and created that type of traffic around him. They were physical and it’s a great lesson for him to play a team like that.” Added Carter-Williams, who shot 1-of-7 and had five of the team's 23 turnovers: “This time they mixed it up and I got confused a few times and I have to learn from it. I have to be prepared and adjust for the next time.” The Bulls will present another challenge as they are widely regarded as being one of the league's most physical teams, but they have lost two of their last three - both against Washington - with a triple-overtime win versus Orlando in between.
•ABOUT THE 76ERS (13-26 SU, 16-23-0 ATS): The Sixers have dropped five of their last six games, including Friday's 101-86 setback that concluded a 1-3 homestand. In addition to Carter-Williams' struggles in the loss to the Heat, Thaddeus Young was limited to 10 points on 3-of-13 shooting. Young's play got increasingly worse during the homestand, as his scoring output in the four games dipped from 22 to 15 to 11 to 10 while his shooting percentage went from 47.6 to 43.8 to 36.4 and finally 23.1 percent against Miami.
•ABOUT THE BULLS (18-20 SU, 17-21-0): Playing once again without the injured Derrick Rose and the recently traded Luol Deng, the Bulls had no answers for Wizards point guard John Wall (23 points, 11 assists) in Friday's three-point loss. "They're a tough team to match up with. You have the issue of Wall with his speed," said Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau, whose team will try to bottle up Carter-Williams with veteran Kirk Hinrich and third-year guard Jimmy Butler drawing the primary assignments. Hinrich is coming off a season-high 18-point effort against Washington and rounded out his performance with five rebounds, five assists and three blocks.
•PREGAME NOTES: 76ers C Spencer Hawes has notched a double-double in three of his last four games after not doing so in any of the previous seven contests.... Butler has only made 8-of-26 shots from the field, including 3-of-14 from 3-point range, over his last two games.... Friday's loss kept Chicago from reaching the .500 mark for the first time since late November.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PHILADELPHIA covered the spread 497 times, while CHICAGO covered the spread 484 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CHICAGO won the game straight up 681 times, while PHILADELPHIA won 296 times. In 1000 simulated games, 586 games went under the total, while 379 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, CHICAGO covered the first half line 503 times, while PHILADELPHIA covered the first half line 497 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 582 games went under first half total, while 418 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PHILADELPHIA is 33-32 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1996.
--PHILADELPHIA is 37-30 straight up against CHICAGO since 1996.
--39 of 65 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--PHILADELPHIA is 34-31 versus the first half line when playing against CHICAGO since 1996.
--34 of 66 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 4-0 in 76ers last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Over is 6-1-1 in 76ers last 8 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Under is 3-0-1 in 76ers last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
--Under is 10-2 in Bulls last 12 home games.
--Under is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 Saturday games.
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#509 MILWAUKEE @ #510 HOUSTON
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, FSN Wisconsin Milwaukee, CSN Houston - Line: Rockets 13, Total: 198) - The Houston Rockets look to rebound from an epic second-half meltdown when they host the Milwaukee Bucks -- a team accustomed to disappointment -- on Saturday. Houston put up a season-high 73 points in the first half and led by 14 points before limping to a 104-92 loss to Oklahoma City on Thursday. The Bucks, who own the worst record in the NBA, have lost seven straight and are coming off an 82-77 home loss to Memphis on Wednesday.
The Rockets shot 19.4 percent and were outscored 45-19 in the second half against the Thunder, a particularly stinging way to end a three-game winning streak. "We had a terrible time shooting the ball, laying it in, making simple plays," Houston coach Kevin McHale told reporters. "We couldn't sustain anything offensively in the second half." The teams have split the past eight meetings including the first two this season following an eight-game Houston winning streak.
•ABOUT THE BUCKS (7-31 SU, 13-25-0 ATS): Milwaukee is the worst offensive team in the league by just about any metric, averaging an NBA-low 91.3 points on a league-worst 41.9 percent shooting. The Bucks shockingly have six players who average double-digit scoring, but they lack a dynamic offensive star as point guard Brandon Knight (15.4 points, 4.3 assists) leads the team in scoring. One of those six -- guard O.J. Mayo (13 points) -- has been relegated to a minor role while forward Khris Middleton (10.8 points) has struggled to 6-for-35 from the field over the past four games.
•ABOUT THE ROCKETS (26-15 SU, 20-19-2 ATS): Houston is fifth in the Western Conference despite having its depth tested by injuries as center Omer Asik (thigh/knee) and guard Patrick Beverley (hand) remain sidelined and guard Aaron Brooks (knee) and big man Greg Smith (knee) have been in and out of the lineup. All five current starters average double-digit scoring with James Harden (24.4 points, 5.3 assists, five rebounds) leading the way. The Rockets' offensive prowess makes Thursday's second half all the more unthinkable, as Houston became the first team in the shot-clock era to score at least 70 points in the first half and fewer than 20 in the second.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Rockets are 12-3 against the Eastern Conference, including an 8-0 mark at home.... Milwaukee has shot over 50 percent or better only three times all season.... Houston PF Terrence Jones (11 points, 7.6 rebounds) has recorded double-doubles in three of the past four games and five of eight.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON covered the spread 575 times, while MILWAUKEE covered the spread 395 times. *EDGE against the spread =HOUSTON. In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON won the game straight up 875 times, while MILWAUKEE won 114 times. In 1000 simulated games, 628 games went under the total, while 342 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON covered the first half line 540 times, while MILWAUKEE covered the first half line 460 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 586 games went under first half total, while 378 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--HOUSTON is 16-14 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 20-11 straight up against MILWAUKEE since 1996.
--15 of 27 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 20-9 versus the first half line when playing against MILWAUKEE since 1996.
--17 of 26 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Bucks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
--Underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
--Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
--Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
--Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
--Rockets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.
--Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Over is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
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#511 GOLDEN STATE @ #512 NEW ORLEANS
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, CSN Bay Area Golden State, FSN New Orleans - Line: Warriors -4, Total: 202) - The New Orleans Pelicans are trying to break out of a seven-game losing streak and may have found just the right opponent. The Golden State Warriors, who visit the Pelicans on Saturday, were making their mark as one of the better defensive teams while winning 11 of 12 games but were terrible on that end in back-to-back losses this week. The Warriors have not lost three in a row since Nov. 20-23 - a slide that ended with a 102-101 win at New Orleans.
The Pelicans are battling hard but have not had the manpower to overcome the losses of Ryan Anderson (herniated disc) and Jrue Holiday (stress fracture) along with Tyreke Evans (ankle). Evans, who has missed the last three games, might be ready for Saturday but both Anderson and Holiday are out indefinitely, putting the scoring load on guard Eric Gordon and forward Anthony Davis. Those two will need to figure out a way to outscore Golden State bombers Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, who combined to score 63 and went 12-for-19 from 3-point range in a 127-121 loss at Oklahoma City on Friday.
•ABOUT THE WARRIORS (25-16 SU, 18-21-2 ATS): Curry and Thompson put on a show Friday night but it was nothing compared to the one Kevin Durant (54 points) put up on the other side as Golden State had no answer defensively for the game’s best scorer. The Warriors have surrendered an average of 125 points on 56.1 percent shooting in their last two games after allowing 93.9 points in the previous 12 contests. Golden State made a trade earlier in the week to boost its bench production and got a combined 12 points from Jordan Crawford and MarShon Brooks but neither was much help on the defensive end. Crawford went 2-for-14 from the field against New Orleans when he was with the Boston Celtics on Jan. 3.
•ABOUT THE PELICANS (15-23 SU, 16-20-2 ATS): New Orleans is 0-7 since Anderson’s injury but very nearly snapped the drought on Wednesday before squandering a 17-point lead in a 103-100 home loss to the Houston Rockets. Gordon scored a season-high 35 points but the final shot went to Darius Miller, who could not knock down a 3-pointer. “It’s tough,” coach Monty Williams told reporters. “It’s especially tough when there’s so much attention on Eric and (Davis). Other guys have to knock down shots. If you look at our numbers, they’re not that great from a few of our guys that we’re counting on.” Gordon managed just five points on 1-of-9 shooting in a 104-93 loss at Golden State on Dec. 17.
•PREGAME NOTES: Golden State has taken six straight in the series and three in a row in New Orleans.... Curry’s 37-point, 11-assist effort on Friday marked his league-leading fifth game of at least 30 points and 10 assists.... Gordon is 12-for-19 from beyond the arc in the last four contests.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW ORLEANS covered the spread 632 times, while GOLDEN STATE covered the spread 349 times. *EDGE against the spread =NEW ORLEANS. In 1000 simulated games, NEW ORLEANS won the game straight up 540 times, while GOLDEN STATE won 437 times. In 1000 simulated games, 600 games went over the total, while 375 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW ORLEANS covered the first half line 599 times, while GOLDEN STATE covered the first half line 380 times. *EDGE against first half line =NEW ORLEANS. In 1000 simulated games, 535 games went over first half total, while 435 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--GOLDEN STATE is 29-19 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--NEW ORLEANS is 27-22 straight up against GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--25 of 47 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--NEW ORLEANS is 25-21 versus the first half line when playing against GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--27 of 48 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Warriors are 19-7-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings.
--Warriors are 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in New Orleans.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 Saturday games.
--Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Over is 5-1 in Pelicans last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.
--Under is 3-0-1 in Pelicans last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
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#513 UTAH @ #514 MINNESOTA 8:05 PM
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ROOT Sports Utah, FSN North Minnesota - Line: Timberwolves -11, Total: 207) - The Minnesota Timberwolves look to avoid their first four-game losing streak of the season when they visit the resurgent Utah Jazz on Saturday. Minnesota's skid reached three games with a 94-89 setback at Toronto on Friday night, as one of the league's highest-scoring teams was shut down for the second time during the slide. The Timberwolves have been held under 90 points on just four occasions this season, twice this week.
Utah has won 11 of the last 13 meetings between the teams, including all four last season. Despite playing their fourth game without leading scorer Gordon Hayward, the Jazz posted an impressive 110-89 win at Detroit on Friday, dominating in the paint and getting a standout performance from rookie guard Trey Burke. The University of Michigan product had 20 points and a season-high 12 assists as Utah improved to 10-8 since its 4-19 start.
•ABOUT THE JAZZ (14-27 SU, 19-20-2 ATS): Burke has done an admirable job picking up the slack for Hayward, scoring at least 17 points in the past four games while averaging 9.3 assists. Also surging of late is center Enes Kanter, who has scored in double figures in all seven games this month while never playing more than 27 minutes. Hayward, who was unable to participate in the team's shootaround Friday morning, remains day-to-day.
•ABOUT THE TIMBERWOLVES (18-21 SU, 20-19-0 ATS): Minnesota is three games below .500 for the first time this season after going 3-for-18 from 3-point range in the loss to Toronto. Despite the slide and a difficult road trip on the horizon, there remains confidence that a second-half push into the playoff picture is possible. "We need to win, we need to string together a few in a row," Kevin Love, who scored 16 points Friday, told reporters. "If we can do that, our confidence will be right back."
•PREGAME NOTES: Love has been held under 20 points in four of his last five games after failing to reach the mark five times in his first 33 games.... Utah is 3-10 on the road against Western Conference teams.... The teams meet again Tuesday in Utah.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA covered the spread 507 times, while UTAH covered the spread 465 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MINNESOTA won the game straight up 744 times, while UTAH won 234 times. In 1000 simulated games, 509 games went over the total, while 467 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the first half line 527 times, while MINNESOTA covered the first half line 473 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 506 games went over first half total, while 494 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UTAH is 33-31 against the spread versus MINNESOTA since 1996.
--UTAH is 41-25 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--37 of 65 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--MINNESOTA is 35-29 versus the first half line when playing against UTAH since 1996.
--39 of 64 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Jazz are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Over is 21-7-1 in the last 29 meetings.
--Over is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings in Minnesota.
--Favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 overall.
--Over is 18-6 in Jazz last 24 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 5-2 in Jazz last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
--Over is 3-0-1 in Timberwolves last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Under is 4-1-1 in Timberwolves last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
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#515 PORTLAND @ #516 DALLAS 8:35 PM
(TV: 8:30 PM EST, KGW Portland, FSN Southwest Dallas - Line: Trailblazers -1, Total: 214.5) - The Portland Trail Blazers knocked off one corner of the Texas triangle on Friday and attempt to make it two in a row when they visit the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday. The Trail Blazers are winners of four straight after a 109-100 triumph at San Antonio and will hit all three Texas teams along with Oklahoma City on their four-game road trip. The Mavericks are averaging 112.2 points while winning four of five and have taken three straight at home.
Dallas got a big lift from rookie Shane Larkin in Friday’s 110-107 win over the Phoenix Suns and will look to the speedy guard if the Blazers push the pace. “(Larkin) was awesome,” Dirk Nowitzki told reporters after the win over the Suns. “We needed everything out of him tonight. I think it was his kind of game, an up-and-down game, and he was phenomenal.” Starting point guard Jose Calderon banged a knee in that game and is day-to-day, which could mean Larkin getting a bigger chance to run against Damian Lillard and Wesley Matthews in Portland’s backcourt.
•ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (30-9 SU, 23-16-0 ATS): LaMarcus Aldridge put up his third straight double-double with 26 points and 13 rebounds on Friday and combined with Matthews to close out the Spurs in the fourth quarter. The All-Star forward has scored at least 21 points in each of the last six games, opening things up for Lillard, Matthews and Nicolas Batum on the outside. “We have confident shooters,” coach Terry Stotts said. “Whomever it is - Damian, Wesley, Mo (Williams), (Aldridge), (Batum) - we have a lot of guys who are very good shooters and feel confident when the ball is in their hands.” Matthews went 6-of-7 from beyond the arc in Friday’s win.
•ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (24-17 SU, 23-18-0 ATS): Dallas managed to grab a 108-106 win at Portland on Dec. 7 on Monta Ellis’ game-winning jumper and is heading back up the standings after a stretch of three losses in four games. The Mavericks have turned it around since and are ready to pour more onto Larkin’s plate after the rookie stepped up with 18 points and five assists off the bench on Friday. “Devin (Harris)’s not back, Gal (Mekel) had surgery and Jose said he’s hurting,” Larkin explained to reporters. “So I was like, ‘I’ve just got to go play now. I mean, I’m not coming out, so just go out there and do you.’”
•PREGAME NOTES: Dallas has won three straight - all by six points or fewer - in the series.... Harris (toe) could make his season debut on Saturday.... Matthews has hit multiple 3-pointers in 12 of the last 14 games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the spread 508 times, while PORTLAND covered the spread 472 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, PORTLAND won the game straight up 492 times, while DALLAS won 474 times. In 1000 simulated games, 514 games went under the total, while 486 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the first half line 520 times, while PORTLAND covered the first half line 480 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 505 games went under first half total, while 465 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PORTLAND is 40-38 against the spread versus DALLAS since 1996.
--DALLAS is 45-33 straight up against PORTLAND since 1996.
--42 of 77 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--DALLAS is 44-32 versus the first half line when playing against PORTLAND since 1996.
--44 of 77 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Trail Blazers are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Dallas.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Dallas.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.
--Over is 6-1 in Trail Blazers last 7 road games.
--Over is 7-1 in Trail Blazers last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Over is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Over is 12-2 in Mavericks last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Over is 3-0-1 in Mavericks last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
