Cnote's College Footall Best Bets For August-Sept- Conference Recaps, Trends, Stats!

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Thursday, September 18

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Game of the Day: Auburn at Kansas State
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Auburn Tigers at Kansas State Wildcats (+8.5, 65.5)

As a member of the Southeastern Conference, Auburn faces plenty of elite opponents - both at home and on the road. However, the Tigers tend to play it safe when it comes to their non-conference schedule, as Thursday's matchup against Kansas State will mark the first time since 2002 that Auburn is playing a true road game against a ranked, non-conference opponent. The fifth-ranked Tigers have put up 104 points through two games thanks to a dominant rushing attack, while the 20th-ranked Wildcats know they need to improve upon their performance in Week 2.

“It’s going to take a heck of a lot of work,” Kansas State quarterback Jake Waters said, “and a heck of a lot of preparation and going out and executing (to beat Auburn). It is going to be a tough game, no matter what. We will be fortunate to come out on top. If we do, it will be a game that puts a stamp on the start of the season, but we have a lot of work still to do.” The Wildcats needed 19 unanswered points to defeat Iowa State 32-28 their last time out, while the Tigers dismantled San Jose State 59-13 but will have their work cut out for them against coach Bill Snyder's crew. "That's one of the toughest places to play," Auburn coach Gus Malzahn said. "They've got an outstanding coach who's a legend. You can just watch them on film and they're very, very good at what they do. ... This will be our first road test. We're going on the road to a top 20 team, and any time you go on the road (against) a top 20, you better have your 'A' game. That's our challenge."

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Tigers opened as 9-point road faves and have been bet as high as -10, but have settled back down below the opening number and are now listed at Auburn -8.5. The Total opened at 66 and is down slightly to 65.5.

INJURY REPORT: Auburn - WR Sammie Coats (questionable Thursday, leg). Kansas State - N/A.

WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy with a 17 percent chance of rain and temperatures will be in the mid 70s around kickoff. There will also be an eight mile per hour wind blowing across the field from east to west.

POWER RANKINGS: Auburn (-23.5) - Kansas State (-14) + home field (-3) = Kansas State (+6.5)

ABOUT AUBURN (2-0, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U): The Tigers had 358 rushing yards against San Jose State and rank seventh nationally with 330 per game while running for at least 200 in 13 consecutive contests. Quarterback Nick Marshall has not had to do much through the first two weeks, but he still has guided Auburn to 12 straight games of at least 30 points - a school record. Defensively, the Tigers registered 10 tackles for loss against San Jose State, including three by defensive tackle Montravius Adams.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (2-0, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Following a 39-point win over Stephen F. Austin in Week 1, the Wildcats needed a second-half rally that included two rushing touchdowns by Waters - who finished with a career-high 138 yards on the ground - to defeat the Cyclones. Charles Jones also ran for a pair of scores as Kansas State recorded its first come-from-behind victory since 2011. The Wildcats continue to receive strong play from senior wideout Tyler Lockett, who racked up 136 receiving yards against Iowa State and needs one more 100-yard effort to break the school record of 10 that he currently shares with Jordy Nelson (2005-07) and Quincy Morgan (1999-2000).

TRENDS:

* Auburn is 11-0 in its last 11 games following an ATS win.
* Kansas State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a bye week.
* Over is 6-1 in Auburn's last seven games overall.
* Over is 9-2 in Kansas State's last 11 games following a bye week.

CONSENSUS: Almost 59 percent of wagers are backing Auburn at -8.5.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Thursday, September 18


Auburn red-hot ATS after covering in previous game

The No. 5 ranked Auburn Tigers visit No. 20 Kansas State to kick off Week 4 college football action Thursday evening.

After covering the spread in their last matchup - a 59-13 pounding of San Jose State in Week 2 - trends are pointing in a positive direction for spread bettors backing Auburn again this week.

In their last 11 games following an ATS win, the Tigers are a perfect 11-0 against the spread. Auburn is currently 8.5-point road faves with a total of 64.5 for the matchup.


Tigers a boon for Over bettors

The Auburn Tigers have had no problem putting plenty of points on the board as of late. The Over is a sizzling 6-1 in the Tigers' last seven games.

Week 4's first NCAAF matchup sees Auburn visit Kansas State Thursday evening. The Tigers are presently -8.5 favorites with the total set at 64.5.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Week 4


Connecticut-USF have history of going Under

When Connecticut and South Florida get together for Friday night college football action, there's one particular trend bettors need to pay attention to.

In the last four meetings between the two schools, the Under is a perfect 4-0. USF is currently 2-point home faves with a total of 46.


UConn has had problems covering in September

The month of September has not been kind to spread bettors backing the University of Connecticut. The Huskies are a paltry 1-6 against the spread in their last seven September games.

Connecticut faces off against South Florida in the Sunshine State Friday, where the Huskies are currently listed as 2-point road dogs with a total of 46.


This trend favors FSU over Clemson

Florida State has had no problem coming through on the big stage, an opportunity they'll have against the Clemson Tigers in Week 4 NCAAF action.

College GameDay will be in Tallahassee Saturday, which is a good omen for the school. According to a tweet from @JeffGrantSports, the Seminoles have won their last five games when the broadcast team visits campus. The 'Noles have won by an average of 17 points over those five contests.

Florida State will be without reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston for the first half of the game for his use of 'vulgar language' in the student union Tuesday.

FSU is currently 17-point home faves with a total of 60.5 for the matchup.


Jameis Winston's first half benching causes line move

Florida State Seminoles Heisman-winning quarterback Jameis Winston will be on the bench for the first half of Saturday’s game against the Clemson Tigers, forcing most sportsbooks to pull the odds off the board Wednesday afternoon.

Florida State opened as a 20-point home favorite and moved to -17 before news of Winston’s punishment was made public.

“We have it closed right now, but the line has gone from -20 to -17 (-105),” says a spokesman for GTBets.eu. “No first-half line for that game at the moment.”

"For the full game, Winston has to be worth four points against most teams," says the spokesman.

"After the news of Winston's first half benching broke, we took the line off the board at -19.5 and re-posted it at -16.5 shortly after," says Jeff Sherman of the Westgate LV SuperBook.

"We opened the Seminoles as 19.5-point favorites and have since move them to 16.5-point home faves," says Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag. "So far the action on Florida State is all on the moneyline at 82 percent while the the spread is seeing all Tigers action as Clemson is getting 94 percent to cover."

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Thursday, September 18


Auburn on sizzling ATS run

The Auburn Tigers hit the road Thursday night to take on the Kansas State Wildcats, as they look to extend their red-hot run of covering the spread.

Auburn has covered the spread in 13 consecutive games, covering by an average of almost 12 points per game.

The Tigers are currently nine-point point favorites against the Kansas State.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday, September 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Auburn 0 0th Kansas State +7 500 *****

Kansas State 0 Over 64 500 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Pac-12 Report - Week 4

September 19, 2014

2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 3-0 0-0 1-2 1-2

Arizona State 3-0 1-0 1-2 1-2

California 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1

Colorado 1-2 0-1 1-2 1-2

Oregon 3-0 0-0 1-2 2-1

Oregon State 2-0 0-0 0-2 1-1

Southern California 2-1 1-0 2-1 2-1

Stanford 2-1 0-1 2-1 0-2

UCLA 3-0 0-0 0-3 1-2

Utah 2-0 0-0 2-0 2-0

Washington 3-0 0-0 1-2 1-2

Washington State 1-2 0-0 1-2 2-1


Hawaii at Colorado (Pac-12 Network, 2:00 p.m. ET)
Colorado played well last week in a two-touchdown loss to Arizona State, covering the spread in the process. The Buffaloes are not quite back yet, but a resounding win against Hawaii as an eight-point favorite would be a nice start. It won't be easy, though, as the Warriors have covered each of its first two against Pac-12 teams this season, narrowly losing to Washington Aug. 30 by a 17-16 score (17-point dog), while dropping a 38-30 decision to Oregon State (10-point dog). In fact, Hawaii is 3-0 ATS this season, they have covered five straight, and they are 8-0 ATS in its past eight non-conference affairs. Bettors might look to the total, as the under is 2-1 for both teams this season. The under is 4-1 in Hawaii's past five against Pac-12 foes, and the under is 7-2 in Colorado's past nine against Mountain West opponents, including their opener against Colorado State.


Utah at Michigan (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30p.m. ET)
Utah packs up and heads east to meeting Michigan in the Big House, and Vegas has the Wolverines as a favorite by just over a field goal in most shops. While Utah is 4-0 ATS in the past four against Big Ten foes, and 35-17-2 ATS in their past 54 non-conference tilts, their 2-6 ATS record in the past eight road games is rather glaring. Consider Michigan is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 home games, and the home team could be a very popular play. Don't forget, though, that Michigan has failed to cover in its past seven against Pac-12 opponents, they're just 1-5 ATS in the past six against non-conference opponents, and the Wolverines have managed to cover just two of their past seven against teams with a winning record. Maybe the over is the better targeted play. Utah is 5-1 in the past six non-conference battles, and 4-1 in their past five overall - including both games this season. The under has cashed in each of Michigan's past two, though, and that includes last week's lackluster 34-10 win against Miami (Ohio).

California at Arizona (Pac-12 Network, 10:00 p.m.)
The way Cal played last season, it is hard to believe they would come into this game unbeaten, but they have played extremely well and appear to be trending upward in a big way. Still, this will be a big test for a team which is 3-11 ATS in its past 14 games against a team with a winning record and 2-12 ATS in the past 14 Pac-12 games. Cal is also just 2-6 ATS in the past eight on the road. However, one of those covers came in their opener at Northwestern. Arizona hasn't exactly shredded the spread, either, going 1-4 ATS in the past five conference tilts, and 3-9 ATS in the past 12 against a team with a winning overall mark. And trends are conflicting in this series, with the home team going 6-1 ATS in the past seven, but Cal covered four of the past five. Where the trends are in agreement is the under, which has cashed in six of the past eight meetings. The under is also 6-2-1 in Cal's past nine conference games, 5-1 in their past six road games (including Aug. 30 at Northwestern), and 7-3-1 in the past 11 overall. The under is 7-1 in Arizona's past eight at home, and 19-6-1 in their past 26 home games against a team with a winning road record.

San Diego State at Oregon State (FOX Sports 1, 10:30 p.m.)
The Aztecs nearly pulled up a huge upset on the road two weeks ago in Chapel Hill, falling short against North Carolina. They have had two weeks to think about Oregon State, a team they also frittered away a fourth-quarter lead against last season. San Diego State appeared primed for an upset because Oregon State somehow found a way to pick up a 34-30 win. The Aztecs come in rested and with plenty of motivation. They're a 10-point underdog, but that might be a bit much considering Oregon State is 0-2 ATS so far this season, while SDSU has covered six of its past seven, including 2-0 ATS this season.

Oregon at Washington State (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)
For whatever reason, the Ducks just haven't seemed to have a lot of luck in Pullman over the years. They head into this one 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings with the Cougars, and 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to the Palouse. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. That might scare many off the 23-point number, but Oregon is 13-3 ATS in their past 16 road games, and 33-16-2 ATS in the past 51 against a team with a losing record. Washington State has done next to nothing this season, losing at home to Rutgers and tumbling on the road at Nevada before taking their frustrations out on poor Portland State in a 59-21 win last weekend to finally cover for the first time. The over is 2-1 for the Cougs, and that might be the play here, even at 75 points. Oregon has scored 46 or more points in each of their three games, including against Michigan State's vaunted defense, and the over is 2-1 in their three outings, too. The over has connected in five of the past six in this series, and five of the past six meetings in Pullman.

Other Pac-12 team in action
Georgia State at Washington (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m.)

 

[CNOTES]

Bad Company - Week 4

September 18, 2014

Three weeks into the college football and there are several teams that have shown they are national championship contenders and others that are just trying to stay competitive. A handful of clubs are the “sacrificial lamb” as they are receiving many points and hope to cover to help out pointspread backers. This week, we’ll take a look at five teams that are huge underdogs and look to hang around with superior foes.

Troy (+41) at Georgia – 12:00 PM EST

The Trojans finished last season at 6-6, so this isn’t a team with a history of losing. However, Troy is 0-3 out of the gate, capped off by an embarrassing 38-35 defeat to Abilene Christian last week as 11-point home favorites. Troy blew a 21-7 lead in that setback to an FCS school, while allowing Abilene nearly 500 yards of offense.

Maybe it was a sign of a bad season for Troy after it was routed in the season opener at UAB, 48-10, as the Blazers won just two games last season. Troy normally schedules SEC schools at least once a year (or SEC schools schedule the Trojans) as last season, Troy failed to cover in blowout losses at Mississippi State (62-7) and Mississippi (51-21). Georgia is coming off last week’s loss at South Carolina, while hosting Tennessee next week, so the Bulldogs will try to be on cruise control this Saturday. UGA is 0-3 ATS in its last three home games against non-conference foes, failing to cover against Buffalo, FAU, and North Texas.

Eastern Michigan (+45) at Michigan State – 12:00 PM EST

This is plenty of points of swallow if you back the Spartans, as Michigan State is taking the field for the first time since getting blown out at Oregon two weeks ago. The Spartans allowed 46 points to the Ducks, as MSU hadn’t given up more than 28 points in any game during the 2012 and 2013 seasons. However, backing the Spartans may be a tough proposition this week as they own a 3-11 ATS record since 2012 at Spartan Stadium as a home favorite.

Eastern Michigan squeezed past Morgan State in its opener before getting routed at Florida as 40 ½-point underdogs, 65-0. The Eagles managed a cover as 20 ½-point ‘dogs in last week’s 17-3 setback at Old Dominion, while limiting the Monarchs to 187 yards passing. EMU owns a 4-9 ATS record in its past 13 games in the road underdog role since 2012, which includes a 23-7 loss in East Lansing as 31 ½-point ‘dogs in 2012.

SMU (+33 ½) vs. Texas A&M – 3:30 PM EST

The Mustangs have turned in a pair of ugly efforts in losses to Baylor and North Texas in the first two games of the season. Head coach June Jones resigned days after the 43-6 drubbing at North Texas, as the Mustangs have been outscored 88-6 through the 0-2 start. Now, SMU plays its home opener against a Texas A&M squad that has put up a whopping 163 points in three victories over South Carolina, Lamar, and Rice.

For what it’s worth, the Mustangs have covered five of their past seven games as a home underdog since 2012. However, SMU has lost three straight meetings to Texas A&M in blowout fashion (46-14 in 2011, 48-3 in 2012, and 42-13 in 2013), as the Aggies easily cashed each time. The Aggies failed to cover in three opportunities as a road favorite last season, while going 0-3 ATS under Kevin Sumlin on the road off a home victory.

Georgia State (+34 ½) at Washington – 6:00 PM EST

It was a long first season for Georgia State in 2013, moving from the FCS level to the FBS. The Panthers compiled an 0-12 record last season, but found a way to cover in seven of nine lined games. This season, the Panthers were actually listed as favorites in its first two contests against Abilene Christian and New Mexico State, but failed to cash. Georgia State staved off Abilene in the opener, 38-37, while losing a three-point decision to New Mexico State. However, the Panthers grabbed a pointspread win in a 48-38 home loss to Air Force as 12-point ‘dogs.

Now, Georgia State hits the road for the first time to take on a Washington club that finally covered after ATS losses to Hawaii and Eastern Washington. The Huskies crushed Illinois last Saturday, 44-19 as 13-point favorites, while jumping out to a 35-5 lead in the second quarter. Washington may be in a look-ahead spot here, hosting Stanford next week in the Pac-12 opener. In 2013, the Huskies posted a 1-4 ATS record following an ATS win, so keep an eye on Washington winning and potentially not covering.

Miami-Ohio (+28) at Cincinnati – 7:00 PM EST

The Redhawks were part of this feature last week as they managed to hang with Michigan at the Big House as 31-point underdogs. The Wolverines eventually cruised to victory, but Miami covered in a 34-10 defeat after trailing 17-10 midway through the third quarter. Miami has lost 15 straight games since the start of 2013, but they have cashed twice as heavy ‘dogs this season, including the opener at Marshall.

Does Miami keep it up this week with a battle against cross-state rival Cincinnati? The Bearcats blanked the Redhawks last season, 14-0, as Miami easily covered as 24 ½-point underdogs. Cincinnati jumped out to a 34-0 second quarter lead in its opener last Friday against Toledo, but the Rockets rallied back to cut the deficit to seven in the fourth. The Bearcats opened things up late and covered as 9 ½-point favorites, 58-34, as UC hopes to avoid a look-ahead with a trip to Columbus next week to face Ohio State.

 

[CNOTES]

Huskies, Bulls open AAC play

September 17, 2014


UConn Huskies (1-2) at South Florida Bulls (1-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: South Florida -1.5, Total: 47.5

Two struggling teams square off in an American Athletic Conference battle on Friday when UConn travels to South Florida.

The Huskies have looked very poor in the early going of the 2014 season, as they have taken losses against both BYU and Boise State, while their only win was a three-point victory (19-16) against Stony Brook, which is an FCS club. Their game against Boise State last week was actually quite close though, as Connecticut cut the deficit to three points just before the final quarter, but could not hold off the Broncos, allowing two late touchdowns while failing to cover the 15-point spread. The Huskies managed 290 yards of offense with a meager 48 coming from the running game.

The Bulls are coming off of a 2-10 season and are not looking to have improved much in 2014. Just like its opponent, USF’s one win came against an FCS team, Western Carolina, in the opening week by a score of 36-31. Since then, the Bulls have averaged just 17.0 PPG in their two losses and really took a beating (49-17) at the hands of NC State as 2.5-point underdogs most recently. South Florida gained a putrid 159 yards of offense in the matchup as they turned the ball over three times and gave up 589 total yards to the Wolfpack.

Last season’s installment of this matchup was extremely ugly, as the Bulls went on the road and won 13-10 as 3.5-point underdogs despite connecting on only 8-of-28 passes for 106 yards. Connecticut holds a slight 5-4 SU edge (4-4 ATS) between these programs since 2007 and has won SU in its past two visits to South Florida.

The Bulls have not done well at all as a favorite with a 0-8 ATS record since the start of 2012 while the Huskies have gone just 2-11 ATS in the first half of the year in the same timeframe.

The injury to QB Casey Cochran (concussion) is a blow to the Connecticut club, as he will be out for the entire season, while bettors should keep an eye on whether or not playmaking WR Andre Davis (sternum) suits up for USF, since he is listed as questionable.

UConn has one of the worst run games in the nation, ranking seventh-worst among FBS schools in rushing yards (76 YPG) while doing slightly better in the passing game (223 YPG) and scoring 16.7 PPG (9th-lowest in nation). With Casey Cochran out for the season, QB Chandler Whitmer (464 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) has taken over under center. He has not done well over the past two seasons with the program, throwing 14 TD and 22 INT, and is completing less than 50 percent of his passes in 2014.

Unfortunately, the team will be relying on him heavily to guide them, as their running game does little to nothing as HB Max DeLorenzo leads the sad group with 104 yards (3.6 YPC). The one true bright spot on this club is WR Geremy Davis who has 256 receiving yards (16.0 avg) and two touchdowns this year, and was the key to their one win as he grabbed six balls for 113 yards (18.8 avg) and a touchdown.

The Huskies defense has given up 406.5 YPG to opponents in FBS play thus far, and hope that a strong secondary led by senior DB Byron Jones (12 tackles) can help turn things around.

South Florida is similar to its Friday opponent, in that the offense has been poor in 2014, averaging 371 YPG with just 182.5 YPG of that coming from the passing attack. QB Mike White (275 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) has been very unimpressive while completing 32.6% of his attempts that have gone for a low 6.4 YPA. Last week NC State baffled White as he completed 4-of-16 attempts for 82 yards and a TD.

Freshman HB Marlon Mack (399 yards, 4 TD) has been a great surprise for the Bulls, but had most of his production come in the opening win against Western Carolina when he rushed for 275 yards (11.5 avg) and four touchdowns. The receivers on this team will not impress anyone with WR Rodney Adams (116 yards) leading the team, while WR Deonte Welch (76 yards) has the most receptions (seven) and WR Reyshene Bronson (80 yards) has the lone touchdown.

The defense for the Bulls had its worst game last week, but will look to turn things around behind leader LB Reshard Cliett (7 tackles, 2 sacks).

 

[CNOTES]

Can NCAAF heavyweights continue with championship dreams crushed?

Some title contenders have already had their national championship dreams shattered, and we’re only four weeks into the college football season.

Often times, programs with high hopes come crashing down after a crushing loss and lack motivation for the rest of the year, making them a play-against selection for football bettors.

We look at five teams that suffered a major blow to their playoff hopes and if they can recover before it’s too late:

Georgia Bulldogs (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)

Next game: -41 vs. Troy

Georgia's loss came at the hands of South Carolina last weekend. Georgia scored 35 points and lost by just three points. While there were some issues with offensive playcalling in key spots and the missed field goals loom large, the big issues are on defense. A lack of a pass rush against the Gamecocks exposed the secondary.

Georgia has just two ranked teams left on the schedule (Missouri and Auburn) and if it can figure out those issues on defense the Bulldogs can be a real contender for the College Football Playoff. Georgia should rebound and it could get back to the SEC Championship Game but it’s tough to see UGA making it through the rest of the scheduled unscathed.


Michigan State Spartans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)

Next game: -45.5 vs. Eastern Michigan

After looking like they had the Oregon game in hand, the Spartans fell victim to a second-half avalanche of scoring from the Ducks to lose big. A number of factors went into the loss, including Michigan State's offensive line not performing well in the second half and the Spartans defense giving up two blown coverage touchdowns – all of which can come down to fatigue after trying to play at Oregon’s pace for four quarters.

The Big Ten has had a rough start to the season and that will have a big impact on the Spartans’ chances to get into the playoff. Michigan State still plays two Top 25 teams but those opponents are currently ranked No. 24 and No. 25. The Spartans have the ability to run the table on the rest of their schedule but even if they do they will most likely be left on the outside looking in.


Ohio State Buckeyes (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)

Next game: vs. Cincinnati (Sept 27)

Without Braxton Miller, the Buckeyes got controlled in their loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2. A bigger factor than the loss of Miller was the Buckeyes’ inability to get any production from the running back position.

Ohio State has just one game remaining with a Top 25 team (Michigan State). I see the Buckeyes with a least one more loss once the season ends.


South Carolina Gamecocks (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)

Next game: -22 at Vanderbilt

The Gamecocks started out the season getting embarrassed by Texas A&M. It was a bad matchup and they simply weren't prepared to play. But they rebounded by pulling off an upset of rival Georgia last Saturday.

The Gamecocks have games left against Auburn, Clemson and Missouri and have a legit shot at getting back into the College Football Playoff, but the Gamecocks will likely lose at least one more game which will leave them on the playoff chopping block.


USC Trojans (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)

Next game: vs. Oregon State (Sept 27)

After beating Stanford, the Trojans fell to Boston College by six points on the road. They simply had no answer to the Eagles’ rushing attack as they finished with 452 yards rushing.

Southern Cal has three games left against Top 15 opponents and out of all five of these teams, USC probably has the lowest chance to rebound and make the College Football Playoff. The Trojans do have the benefit of not playing Oregon but it’s possible they drop another three or four games if last weekend was any indication.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Friday, September 19

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Game of the Day: Connecticut at South Florida
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Connecticut Huskies at South Florida Bulls (-2, 45)

Very little went right for South Florida in its first season under then-rookie coach Willie Taggart, with one of the few exceptions being how it played at the start of its conference schedule. The Bulls on Friday look to win their American Athletic Conference opener for the second straight season when they host Connecticut. South Florida went 2-10 in 2013 – the worst campaign in its 17-year football history – but managed to defeat Cincinnati and the Huskies to begin league play last October.

The Bulls did not score an offensive touchdown in either victory and have only tallied one in each of their last two losses since freshman Marlon Mack rushed for four by himself in a season-opening win over Western Carolina. Connecticut also secured its only victory against an FCS foe in Stony Brook, although it was able to frustrate undefeated Brigham Young in its opener and played Boise State tight through three-plus quarters last Saturday. The Huskies and Bulls have met every year since 2005 and each of the former Big East rivals’ last seven meetings has been decided by seven points or fewer.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: South Florida opened as 3.5-point home faves, but have been bet down to -2. The total opened at 47.5 points and has also been bet down to 45.

INJURY REPORT: Connecticut - N/A. South Florida - OL Thor Jozwiak (probable Friday, arm), WR Andre Davis (questionable Friday, sternum).

WEATHER REPORT: The is supposed to be a thunderstorm in the region and an 80 pecent chance of rain at game time. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid 70s, with humidity reaching as high as 84 percent.

ABOUT CONNECTICUT (1-2, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U): First-year coach Bob Diaco was pleased with his defense despite giving up 38 points last week as it held Boise State 245 yards below its season average in total offense and limited Broncos’ running back Jay Ajayi 113 yards under his season rushing average. "The defense, playing basically the same system they played in week one, looked nothing like it looked in week one. I'm proud of the way that they played today," Diaco said. Chandler Whitmer became the eighth player in program history to surpass 4,000 passing yards after throwing for a season-high 209 last week.

ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): The Bulls have played eight freshmen this season and two have already left a mark on the offensive end, including Mack’s AAC-record 275 yards rushing yards in the opener. In last weekend’s 49-17 loss to North Carolina State, it was Ryeshene Bronson’s turn as the freshman receiver collected two catches for 80 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown reception early in the first quarter. Andre Davis, who led South Florida with 49 catches and 735 yards last season, remains questionable after suffering a bruised sternum against Western Carolina.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 7-0 in South Florida's last seven games versus a team with a losing record.

CONSENSUS: Just over 65 percent of wagers are backing South Florida at -2.

 

[CNOTES]

Diamond Trends - Friday

September 19, 2014


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Dodgers are 11-0 since October 03, 2013 as a 140+ favorite when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1100.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- When Clayton Kershaw starts the Dodgers are 14-0 since September 02, 2013 as a 200+ favorite for a net profit of $1400.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Nationals are 19-0 (+$1,900) in team history as a road favorite after a win where they allowed 6 or fewer hits, which did not end a 3+ game losing streak.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Cubs are 0-10 since May 17, 2012 as a home 140+ dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $1000 when playing against.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- When Clayton Kershaw starts the Dodgers are 11-0 since August 01, 2011 as a road favorite vs a team that lost their starter’s last two starts for a net profit of $1100.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's Rated Games:

*****-------------------------------1 - 1

Double Plays--------------------------0 - 0

Triple Plays---------------------------0 - 0

LIGHTS OUT.....................................0 - 0

Overall Rated Plays

20 - 14......................................*****

10 - 14.....................................DOUBLE PLAY

7 - 9 ....................................TRIPLE PLAY

4 - 2 ....................................LIGHTS OUT


Friday, September 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Connecticut - 8:00 PM ET Connecticut +2.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

South Florida - Over 43.5 500 ******

 

[CNOTES]

TOP TRENDS


CFB > (343) HAWAII@ (344) COLORADO | 09/20/2014 - 02:00 PM

Play AGAINST HAWAII using the money line in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63
The record is 6 Wins and 14 Losses for the since 1992 (-23.05 units)

CFB > (321) C MICHIGAN@ (322) KANSAS | 09/20/2014 - 03:30 PM

Play ON C MICHIGAN using the money line in road lined games
The record is 7 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+16.35 units)

CFB > (327) TULANE@ (328) DUKE | 09/20/2014 - 12:30 PM

Play AGAINST DUKE using the money line when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 7 Wins and 22 Losses for the since 1992 (-25.7 units)

CFB > (373) LOUISVILLE@ (374) FLA INTERNATIONAL | 09/20/2014 - 03:30 PM

Play UNDER LOUISVILLE on the total versus the first half line in all games
The record is 1 Overs and 13 Unders for the last two seasons (+11.9 units)

CFB > (313) IOWA@ (314) PITTSBURGH | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM

Play AGAINST IOWA using the money line in road games
The record is 44 Wins and 56 Losses for the since 1992 (-70.85 units)

CFB > (385) NEW MEXICO@ (386) NEW MEXICO ST | 09/20/2014 - 08:00 PM

Play AGAINST NEW MEXICO using the money line in September games
The record is 9 Wins and 24 Losses for the since 1992 (-28.15 units)

CFB > (319) IDAHO@ (320) OHIO U | 09/20/2014 - 07:00 PM

Play AGAINST OHIO U using the money line when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 3 Wins and 5 Losses for the last two seasons (-18.9 units)

CFB > (335) UTAH@ (336) MICHIGAN | 09/20/2014 - 03:30 PM

Play AGAINST UTAH using the money line in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56
The record is 4 Wins and 7 Losses for the since 1992 (-19.95 units)

CFB > (329) ARMY@ (330) WAKE FOREST | 09/20/2014 - 03:30 PM

Play AGAINST ARMY using the against the spread in road games
The record is 0 Wins and 10 Losses for the last three seasons (-11 units)

CFB > (381) N ILLINOIS@ (382) ARKANSAS | 09/20/2014 - 07:00 PM

Play AGAINST N ILLINOIS using the money line in games played on turf
The record is 25 Wins and 25 Losses for the since 1992 (-44.8 units)

CFB > (323) TROY@ (324) GEORGIA | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM

Play AGAINST TROY using the money line in games played on a grass field
The record is 11 Wins and 28 Losses for the since 1992 (-29.7 units)

CFB > (325) BOWLING GREEN@ (326) WISCONSIN | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM

Play UNDER BOWLING GREEN on the total when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 2 Overs and 15 Unders for the last three seasons (+12.8 units)

CFB > (335) UTAH@ (336) MICHIGAN | 09/20/2014 - 03:30 PM

Play UNDER UTAH on the total as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last three seasons (+9 units)

CFB > (323) TROY@ (324) GEORGIA | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM

Play OVER GEORGIA on the total in September games
The record is 9 Overs and 0 Unders for the last three seasons (+9 units)

CFB > (387) MIAMI@ (388) NEBRASKA | 09/20/2014 - 08:00 PM

Play OVER MIAMI on the total when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 8 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+8 units)

CFB > (381) N ILLINOIS@ (382) ARKANSAS | 09/20/2014 - 07:00 PM

Play UNDER N ILLINOIS on the total as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
The record is 1 Overs and 12 Unders for the since 1992 (+10.9 units)

CFB > (315) BALL ST@ (316) TOLEDO | 09/20/2014 - 07:00 PM

Play OVER TOLEDO on the total against conference opponents
The record is 31 Overs and 9 Unders for the since 1992 (+21.1 units)

CFB > (307) INDIANA@ (308) MISSOURI | 09/20/2014 - 04:00 PM

Play UNDER MISSOURI on the total when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 1 Overs and 11 Unders for the last three seasons (+9.9 units)

CFB > (391) CALIFORNIA@ (392) ARIZONA | 09/20/2014 - 10:00 PM

Play AGAINST ARIZONA using the against the spread as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points
The record is 2 Wins and 14 Losses for the since 1992 (-13.4 units)

CFB > (371) OLD DOMINION@ (372) RICE | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM

Play ON RICE using the against the spread against conference opponents
The record is 56 Wins and 22 Losses for the since 1992 (+31.8 units)

CFB > (305) CONNECTICUT@ (306) S FLORIDA | 09/19/2014 - 08:00 PM

Play AGAINST S FLORIDA using the against the spread as a favorite
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the last three seasons (-8.8 units)

CFB > (327) TULANE@ (328) DUKE | 09/20/2014 - 12:30 PM

Play AGAINST DUKE in the first half in September games
The record is 10 Wins and 31 Losses for the since 1992 (-24.1 units)

CFB > (369) TEXAS ST@ (370) ILLINOIS | 09/20/2014 - 04:00 PM

Play AGAINST ILLINOIS in the first half when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 4 Wins and 17 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.7 units)

CFB > (323) TROY@ (324) GEORGIA | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM

Play AGAINST GEORGIA in the first half in non-conference games
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last three seasons (-10 units)

CFB > (349) APPALACHIAN ST@ (350) SOUTHERN MISS | 09/20/2014 - 07:00 PM

Play AGAINST SOUTHERN MISS using the against the spread in games played on turf
The record is 5 Wins and 18 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.8 units)

CFB > (343) HAWAII@ (344) COLORADO | 09/20/2014 - 02:00 PM

Play AGAINST COLORADO in the first half when playing on a Saturday
The record is 5 Wins and 18 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.8 units)

CFB > (315) BALL ST@ (316) TOLEDO | 09/20/2014 - 07:00 PM

Play ON BALL ST in the first half versus the 1rst half line in road games
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)

CFB > (331) N CAROLINA@ (332) E CAROLINA | 09/20/2014 - 03:30 PM

Play ON E CAROLINA in the first half in games played on a grass field
The record is 16 Wins and 4 Losses for the last three seasons (+11.6 units)

CFB > (343) HAWAII@ (344) COLORADO | 09/20/2014 - 02:00 PM

Play ON HAWAII using the against the spread in non-conference games
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+7 units)

CFB > (361) GEORGIA TECH@ (362) VIRGINIA TECH | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM

Play AGAINST GEORGIA TECH using the against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)

CFB > (379) MISSISSIPPI ST@ (380) LSU | 09/20/2014 - 07:00 PM

Play ON MISSISSIPPI ST in the first half versus the first half line in all games
The record is 13 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+9.7 units)

 

[CNOTES]

• [h=5]CFB > (329) ARMY@ (330) WAKE FOREST | 09/20/2014 - 03:30 PM[/h] Play AGAINST ARMY using the against the spread in road games
  [h=6] The record is 0 Wins and 10 Losses for the last three seasons (-11 units)
  
  [/h]

• [h=5]CFB > (391) CALIFORNIA@ (392) ARIZONA | 09/20/2014 - 10:00 PM[/h] Play AGAINST ARIZONA using the against the spread as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points
  [h=6] The record is 2 Wins and 14 Losses for the since 1992 (-13.4 units)
  
  [/h]

• [h=5]CFB > (371) OLD DOMINION@ (372) RICE | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM[/h] Play ON RICE using the against the spread against conference opponents
  [h=6] The record is 56 Wins and 22 Losses for the since 1992 (+31.8 units)
  
  [/h]

• [h=5]CFB > (349) APPALACHIAN ST@ (350) SOUTHERN MISS | 09/20/2014 - 07:00 PM[/h] Play AGAINST SOUTHERN MISS using the against the spread in games played on turf
  [h=6] The record is 5 Wins and 18 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.8 units)
  
  [/h]

• [h=5]CFB > (343) HAWAII@ (344) COLORADO | 09/20/2014 - 02:00 PM[/h] Play ON HAWAII using the against the spread in non-conference games
  [h=6] The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+7 units)
  
  [/h]

• [h=5]CFB > (361) GEORGIA TECH@ (362) VIRGINIA TECH | 09/20/2014 - 12:00 PM[/h] Play AGAINST GEORGIA TECH using the against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record
  [h=6] The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)
  
  [/h]

 

[CNOTES]

Florida at Alabama

September 18, 2014


For the first time in three seasons, Alabama and Florida will square off Saturday afternoon at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide will be seeking a fourth consecutive win over the Gators, who haven't beaten 'Bama since a 35-24 triumph in the 2008 SEC Championship Game at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta.

As of Thursday, most books had Alabama (3-0 straight up, 0-2-1 against the spread) listed as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 52. Gamblers can take UF on the money line for a +500 return (risk $100 to win $500).

Nick Saban's team opened the season with a 33-23 non-covering win over West Va. at the Ga. Dome. Alabama never led by more than 10 points and came nowhere close to taking the cash as a 22-point favorite. T.J. Yeldon ran 23 times for 126 yards and two touchdowns, while Derrick Henry produced 113 rushing yards and one TD on 17 totes. Blake Sims threw for 250 yards with Amari Cooper making 12 catches for 130 yards.

Since then, 'Bama has recorded a pair of lopsided victories at home over FAU (41-0) and Southern Miss (52-12). The win over the Owls was a 'no-play' because weather forced the game to be postponed before 55 minutes of play. The line had closed at 'Bama -42.

Sims has secured the starting QB job ahead of FSU transfer Jacob Coker. Sims has completed 47-of-63 throws (74.6%) for 626 passing yards with a 4/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's also rushed for 102 yards and two scores while averaging 7.3 yards per carry.

Yeldon has rushed for 225 yards and two TDs, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Henry has 209 rushing yards and one score while averaging 6.3 YPC. Cooper leads the SEC in receptions (33) and receiving yards (454) and has a pair of TD catches.

After its opener vs. Idaho was postponed due to lightning, Florida (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) opened the season with a 65-0 clubbing of Eastern Michigan. The Gators dealt out cream-cheese treatment as 40.5-point favorites.

Will Muschamp's squad is coming off a 36-30 win over Kentucky in triple overtime. UF never threatened to cover the 17.5-point spread at The Swamp, while the 'over' hit for a second straight week thanks to the OTs (more on those details below...).

Matt Jones rushed 29 times for 156 yards, including the game-winning TD plunge from one yard out in triple OT. Jeff Driskel threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns, while DeMarcus Robinson enjoyed a breakout performance with 15 receptions for 216 yards and a pair of scores.

With the exception of missing a number of throws in the first half against UK, Driskel has looked solid in new offensive coordinator Kurt Roper's hurry-up offense that's better suited to his skills. The fourth-year junior has connected on 63.6 percent of his passes for 543 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio. Robinson, a true sophomore, has emerged as the team's go-to WR with 21 catches for 339 yards and three TDs.

After missing most of last season with a knee injury, Jones has rushed for 221 yards and a pair of scores with a 6.0 YPC average. Sophomore Kelvin Taylor has 132 rushing yards and two TDs while averaging 5.7 YPC.

Dating back to last season, Alabama is mired in a 0-5-2 ATS slump. As a home favorite during Saban's tenure, 'Bama owns a 23-24-1 spread record.

On Muschamp's watch, UF has posted a 4-3 spread record as a road underdog.

The 'over' is 2-0 for both of these schools this season. Remember, wagers on the total were ruled 'no action' in 'Bama's win over FAU.

Florida hasn't tasted a victory in Tuscaloosa since 1998, although that stat is a bit misleading in that it has only played at Alabama twice since then. Both of those trips to T-town were miserable ones for UF. In 2005, the biggest moment of Mike Shula's tenure was a beatdown to the Gators by a 31-3 count in a game that was over in the first quarter.

In 2010, Urban Meyer inexplicably had John Brantley running the option and taking big hits in a 31-6 setback.

CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E's Bonus Nuggets**

-- Bettors backing the UF-UK game to stay 'under' 54 combined points were delivered a gut-wrenching defeat. The Gators' win went to the extra sessions with the score knotted at 20-20.

-- In the last 10 head-to-head meetings between UF and 'Bama, the Tide has compiled an 8-1-1 spread record.

-- When Florida State announced the suspension of QB Jameis Winston for the first half of Saturday's game against Clemson on Wednesday morning, books yanked the line of 19.5 or 20 off the board. When the number re-surfaced that afternoon, it was at 16.5 or 17.

--Duke is on a 9-1-1 ATS roll in its last 11 games as a home favorite going back to a 2011 win over Tulane both SU and ATS. The Green Wave returns to Durham this weekend as a 17-point underdog.

-- Arizona State QB Taylor Kelly has been ruled out of next Thursday's home game vs. UCLA. Kelly's foot injury could keep him out for much longer.

--West Virginia starting cornerback Daryl Worley has been suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules. Worley had 17 tackles and a team-high two interceptions through three games. A report on Wednesday revealed that Worley is facing a battery charge against a woman.

-- Utah State QB Chuckie Keeton is out for Saturday's game at Arkansas St. due to a knee injury. The Aggies are hopeful that Keeton, who saw his 2013 season ended by an ACL tear, will be able to return for an Oct. 3 game at BYU after an open date. Keeton has enjoyed an outstanding career, but he's struggled through three games with a 2/4 TD-INT ratio. He came into the year with a 56/13 career TD-INT ratio and 14 rushing TDs. In last week's 36-24 win over Wake Forest, Darell Garretson completed 11-of-16 passes for 121 yards with one TD and one interception. Garretson made seven starts as a true freshman last season, posting a 10/7 TD-INT ratio.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Notes - Week 4

September 19, 2014

Week 3 Recap

There was a good mix of total winners in Week 3 and for those keeping records, the ‘over’ produced a 28-23 mark in Week 3 in the 51 matchups between FBS schools. After this weekend most teams will have completed at least a third of the regular season, which gives bettors a good sample to analyze. Heading into Week 4, total players can start to see glaring tendencies.

Based on our numbers, these teams have all seen the OVER go 3-0 in their first three games - Fresno State, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Tulsa, Middle Tennessee State, Tulane, Toledo, Buffalo, Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky and Georgia Tech.

Schools that have watched the UNDER go 3-0 are Nevada, Tennessee, Houston, Navy, Ball State and Wyoming.

Should bettors ride these outcomes, perhaps go the other way? We asked that question to VegasInsider.com totals expert James Manos and he gave us a quick snapshot of his handicapping approach.

He explained, “When handicapping totals and looking to make OVER bets, I prefer to look at two major categories, my offensive efficiency ratings and the matchups. I prefer to find teams with efficient offensive units that have quality matchups rather than look for a mediocre offense to take advantage of an inefficient or poor defense but, as always, each game must be evaluated on its own merits with all factors considered. When deciding on UNDER plays I prefer to look at my defensive efficiency ratings and pace statistics (plays per game, points per play, % of rushing plays).”

For those individuals who have time and a passion for understanding the totals market more, I would recommend visiting a site like www.teamrankings.com. They have stats upon stats that can only help you with your selections.

Game of the Week - Clemson at Florida State

Editor's Note: On late Friday night, Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston was suspended for the entire game vs. Clemson after further investigation by the school. FSU-Clemson Line Moves

The ACC takes center stage on Saturday night as the Tigers and Seminoles knock heads again. Due to the Jameis Winston suspension for Florida State, I asked Manos for his thoughts on the matchup and how he would look to bet the game and halves.

“Normally, I would avoid a situation like this but this setup seems too juicy to ignore and these are two teams that I know something about. I made the original line for this game FSU -17 but was unwilling to back Clemson unless I could get +21 or better. The line nearly got there (peaking at a widely available +20.5) but has now returned to this number with the suspension of QB Winston for the 1st half.

Probably NO player in the country has meant more to his team over the last 1-plus seasons than Winston and his loss for the 1st half of this game could be very detrimental. But essentially, considering the opener, the books are only crediting Winston's absence with two points of value (or a full game +4.5).
I think that's an underestimation and places value on the Tigers at that number but it's been scooped up by the professional all over. As of Friday, Clemson is now a 15-point underdog or less at books.

Both teams had byes prior to this meeting but now the ‘Noles only have two full practices to get a redshirt freshman QB with 21 career pass attempts ready to play against a Top 20 defense. Florida State has struggled to find playmakers at the WR position this season and in the 1st half of this game, I expect a heavy dose of RB Williams.

Clemson's defense struggled vs Georgia's solid ground game but most of that came in the 4th quarter when the Tigers were exhausted from an inept offense leaving them on the field too long. Clemson OC Morris has been known to take more chances in situations like this and with two weeks to prepare expect some packages for electric freshman QB Watson, who has seen playing time in both games so far this year and looked good.

Two good defenses should control the first half of this game and when Winston returns in the 2nd half he'll likely have just 7 possessions and 37 plays or so to make a difference. My numbers show FSU with an expectation of .631 points per play with Winston in the game vs. an average defense but Clemson is no average defense. Adjusted for Clemson's defensive efficiency and backup QB Maquire playing the entire first half, I have the ‘Noles scoring 34-36 points in this game. With an extra week to prepare and an excellent OC in Morris I expect the Clemson offense to be better than it was vs Georgia especially after the confidence building win over South Carolina State. I like the Tigers chances to score more than 20 points in this contest and if they can somehow receive the 2nd half kickoff and generate a drive, they will cut into Winston's potential number of plays even more. With that being said, I would grab the points!

The movement downward is correct and the adjustment is accurate. I think UNDER for the game offers more value than the UNDER for the 1st half as we may see some trick plays from both sides in the first stanza and as I mentioned above, if Clemson receives the 2nd half kickoff they could limit Winston's participation even more.”



Line Moves

In last week’s Total Notes piece, Manos touched on how he analyzes line movements in the totals market and divided the shifts into four categories. He also provided examples of each category.

1) Correct sharp movement - Indiana/Bowling Green OVER

If you check the moves on this matchup, you’ll see an opener of 64 and the line closed as high as 76. That’s a 12-point shift, which is ridiculous. After a slow start, Bowling Green beat Indiana 45-42 in a shootout as all tickets cashed.

2) Incorrect sharp movement - Nevada/Arizona OVER

This number opened 60 and closed as high as 66 ½. Some bettors might’ve scored a middle with Arizona winning 35-28.

3) Public movement - Georgia/South Carolina OVER

Big television games garner attention and despite a delayed start to weather, South Carolina defeated Georgia 38-35. This line jumped up during the week but the weather drove the number back in the neighborhood of the opener (58.5).

4) Market manipulation - Western Kentucky/Middle Tennessee UNDER

This number opened at 67 and received plenty of attention all week at the betting counter. The number closed at 64 and even though the final score was 50-47, make a note that 29 points came in overtime.

Manos has listed four examples for Week 4 that fit into his line movement categories.

1) Correct sharp movement - San Diego State/Oregon State OVER
2) Incorrect sharp movement - Tulane/Duke OVER
3) Public movement - North Carolina/East Carolina OVER
4) Market manipulation - Middle Tennessee State/Memphis UNDER

Some VI users have asked me why I use CRIS aka Bookmaker as source to track moves. Put simply, outside of CG Technology (formerly Cantor Gaming) in Las Vegas, CRIS has a very strong reputation as an offshore outfit and they post early numbers on totals.

Listed below are all of the total moves by 3 or more points based on openers from CRIS as of Friday afternoon.

Week 4 Moves

Rotation Open Current

**Ball State at Toledo 67 59

**Central Michigan at Kansas 48 45

Troy at Georgia 69 64

Bowling Green at Wisconsin 61 64

Tulane at Army 54.5 58

Army at Wake Forest 51 47

**San Jose State at Minnesota 56.5 51.5

Eastern Michigan at Michigan State 57 52

South Carolina at Vanderbilt 57.5 52.5

Middle Tennesse State at Memphis 65.5 60

Appalachian State at Southern Mississippi 62.5 59.5

Florida at Alabama 53.5 50.5

UNLV at Houston 57.5 62.5

Oregon at Washington State 73.5 77.5

**Clemson at Florida State 66 59.5

Virginia at BYU 51.5 48

Louisville at Florida International 48 44

Utah State at Arkansas State 54 50

Miami, Fl. at Nebraska 61 55.5

Oklahoma at West Virginia 62 65

California at Arizona 66 69.5

** Denotes key injuries to offensive players

 

[CNOTES]

Oklahoma at West Virginia

September 19, 2014


Oklahoma will put its unbeaten record on the line in a dangerous road game Saturday at West Virginia. As of late Friday afternoon, most books had the Sooners installed as 7.5-point favorites with a total of 65. Gamblers can take the Mountaineers on the money line for a +240 payout (risk $100 to win $240).

For first-half wagers, Oklahoma (3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) is favored by 4.5 points with a total of 33.

Bob Stoops's team has been impressive in convincing wins over La. Tech (48-16), Tulsa (52-7) and Tennessee (34-10). The Sooners dropped the Volunteers as 21-point home favorites last weekend.

Trevor Knight threw for 308 yards and one touchdown and also had a rushing score. Sterling Shepard had five catches for 109 yards, and Julian Wilson put the game away and got OU ahead of the number for the first time with a 100-yard interception return for a TD.

Coming off a disastrous 4-8 season, West Virginia (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) wasn't given much respect coming into the 2014 campaign. However, the Mountaineers are a clearly improved team that's getting terrific QB play from FSU transfer Clint Trickett, who is third in the nation with 1,224 passing yards. Trickett has completed 75.4 percent of his throws with a 7/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has a rushing score.

Trickett was brilliant in last week's 40-37 win at Maryland as a three-point underdog. He connected on 37-of-49 throws for 511 yards and four TDs. Kevin White had 13 receptions for 216 yards and one TD, while Mario Alford had 11 catches for 131 yards and two scores.

After trailing 28-6 in the first half, the Terrapins battled back to tie the game at 37-37 in the final stanza. But WVU got a 47-yard field goal as time expired to preserve the victory.

Dana Holgorsen's team started the season at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta, where it gave Alabama fits for 60 minutes. The Crimson Tide eventually captured a 33-23 win, but it never threatened to cover the spread as a 22-point 'chalk.'

Oklahoma will be without leading rusher Keith Ford, who suffered a slightly fractured ankle against UT. Ford, who will miss 2-3 weeks, has rushed for 194 yards and five TDs on 34 carries. He's also made six receptions for 100 yards and one TD.

Knight has completed 60-of-101 passes (59.4%) for 860 yards with a 4/2 TD-INT ratio. The third-year sophomore also has a pair of rushing scores and a 4.9 yards-per-carry average.

Shepard has been Knight's favorite target, hauling in 17 receptions for 335 yards and two TDs. Durron Neal has 15 catches for 183 yards.

WVU has been a home underdog five times during Holgorsen's tenure, going 2-3 ATS. Since 2004, OU has a 16-19-1 spread record as a road favorite.

The 'over' has hit at a 2-1 clip for both schools this year. Going back to last season, WVU has seen the 'over' go 8-2 in its last 10 outings.

When these teams met in Norman last year, OU captured a 16-7 win but failed to cover the number as a 21-point home favorite. In 2012, Oklahoma was fortunate to escape Morgantown with a 50-49 win as an 11.5-point 'chalk.' The Sooners let four separate double-digit leads get away and got the game-winning score with only 24 seconds remaining.

West Va. won't have starting cornerback Daryl Worley, who has been suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules. Worley had 17 tackles and a team-high two interceptions through three games.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on FOX.

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 3

September 19, 2014

After sportsbooks won the first two weeks of the NFL season, they are already looking to rally back from an early deficit following a 56-14 rout by the Atlanta Falcons over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. Atlanta kicked off Week 3 NFL betting action with an easy win, one that Johnny Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, saw coming.

“Awful – I just knew it was going to come in, I just couldn’t do anything about it,” Avello said about bettors backing the Falcons, who opened as 5.5-point favorites. “I thought about going to 7 like three days ago because I knew we would be pressing 7, and we ended up going to 6.5 laying -120. I guess the bets on that game were probably 7-to-1 on the Falcons.

“A lot of my big money came in late, and that was the killer. I already had money on them. Then the late money really buried me. Sometimes you catch a team on a bad week, and I guess they caught Tampa on a bad week. Right from the first drive, you could tell this team’s in trouble. But Atlanta’s a very good team at home. It was a great spot for Atlanta, and the bettors were all over it.”

Sportsbooks will now try to make up some ground with Sunday’s slate, which features a Super Bowl XLVIII rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos in the biggest game of Week 3. The Seahawks opened as 5-point favorites and remained there as of Friday afternoon. Seattle blew away the Broncos 43-8 in the last meeting for the Vince Lombardi Trophy back on Feb. 2. The defending champs will have a significant home-field advantage, especially since it should be much cooler than it was for the team’s game last week in San Diego where they lost 30-21 to the Chargers.

“That Seattle game last week, I didn’t realize that the field was so hot,” Avello said. “That must have taken some steam out of them. I’m sure that they didn’t come into the game taking it lightly, because they knew that this team is a team this year that could possibly be reckoned with.”

There has not been much line movement in most of the games yet other than a half-point here or there. The one exception so far is the Monday Night Football matchup between the Chicago Bears and New York Jets, who opened as 1-point favorites and are now up to -3. Both teams are coming off opposite results, as Chicago came back from a 17-0 deficit to beat the San Francisco 49ers 28-20 as 7-point road underdogs last Sunday night while New York blew a 21-3 lead in a 31-24 road loss to the Green Bay Packers as 7-point dogs.

“The Bears are coming off of a good primetime game last week,” Avello said. “The Jets had a good showing in the first half, I don’t know what happened after that. They played a team that can catch you even if you’re up three scores. I don’t know if the Bears are that type of team.

“This looks like it will be a closer game throughout. At least it looks that way. Cutler to me is a lot like (Philip) Rivers, he can give you a good half or a full good game, but he always throws that pick or something at the end of the game.”

According to Avello, another game of note from a betting perspective is the Dallas Cowboys visiting the St. Louis Rams as 1-point favorites, with each of them getting their first wins of the season last week. “I think everybody wants to play Dallas, they had a good showing last week,” Avello said. We’ll see if that trend continues come Sunday, it may.”

Two divisional games worth watching include the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Cleveland Browns in an AFC North battle and the Detroit Lions hosting the Green Bay Packers in an NFC North showdown. The Ravens opened as 1-point road favorites and have moved to -1.5 while the Lions are -2.5 at home.

“Cleveland with a big win last week,” Avello said. “Has that team really turned the corner now? I don’t know, we’ll see. Baltimore plays a very boring style of football. When these teams meet, they are hard games to watch. They’re not games that the National Football League has drawn out to be exciting.

“I think a lot of the (Lions-Packers) games are decided within the point spread of 7. It’s usually a close game. Green Bay doesn’t look like they’re destroying anybody on the road.”

Finally, another huge matchup in primetime is the Sunday Night Football game between the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers. The defending NFC South champion Panthers have looked impressive in starting 2-0 following a 24-7 victory against the Lions in Week 2 while the Steelers have had some extra time off after losing badly to the Ravens 26-6 on Thursday Night Football. Carolina opened -3 (-120) at The Wynn and has remained there most of the week, hitting a high of -3.5 (-120) on Wednesday.

“What that kind of shows you is that there’s a little bit of weight on Carolina’s side, home field and maybe a little extra,” Avello said. “Carolina’s looked really good so far. But then it’s a huge game for Pittsburgh certainly. That’s another one of those isolated games on Sunday night, so we’ll see where the money comes in late.”

Week 3 Betting Moves per the SuperBook in Las Vegas

Rotation Team Open Current Move

451 CHARGERS - - -
452 BILLS 1 2.5 1.5

453 COWBOYS 1.5 1 .5
454 RAMS - - -

455 REDSKINS - - -
456 EAGLES 6.5 6.5 0

457 TE-ANS 2.5 2 -0.5
458 GIANTS - - -

459 VIKINGS - - -
460 SAINTS 9.5 9.5 0

461 TITANS - - -
462 BENGALS 7 7 0

463 RAVENS 0 1.5 1.5
464 BROWNS - - -

465 PACKERS - - -
466 LIONS 0 2.5 2.5

467 COLTS 7 7 0
468 JAGUARS - - -

469 RAIDERS - - -
470 PATRIOTS 13.5 14 0.5

471 49ERS 2.5 3 0.5
472 CARDINALS - - -

473 BRONCOS - - -
474 SEAHAWKS 4.5 4.55 0

475 CHIEFS - - -
476 DOLPHINS 5.5 4.5 -1

477 STEELERS - - -
478 PANTHERS 3 3.5 0.5

479 BEARS - - -
480 JETS 1.5 3 1.5

Line Updates provided by bettingmoves.com on 9/19

 

[CNOTES]

Sharp Moves - Week 3

September 19, 2014


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Last week, we pointed out three plays and they went 2-1 but I'll give myself a pass on the Minnesota play due to the Adrian Peterson issue.

Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 3!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Friday morning.

(Rotation #468) Jacksonville +7 – All over the place, this was a +7.5 game just a couple days ago, but all of a sudden, there have been some big bets coming in on the Jags to make us think that they are headed towards their first cover of the season. Remember, for as bad as Jacksonville has looked, this is its first home game of the year, and it comes against a team which has had all sorts of consistency issues and has made gobs of mental mistakes. Not only is the insinuation there that the home standing Jags are going to cover this game, but it's there that they are going to end up winning it as well. Don't be stunned if it happens, as this is the sharpest play of the year, and it might be the sharpest play of the entire season as well.

Opening Line: Jacksonville +7.5
Current Line: Jacksonville +7
Public Betting Percentage: 73% on Indianapolis

(Rotation #478) Pittsburgh +3.5 – The Steelers being sharp in a primetime game just doesn't seem to make all that much sense, and this very well could end up reverting itself by the time Sunday Night Football actually rolls around. However, with over 60 percent of the betting action on Carolina, we have to take notice considering the fact that the line is eking just a bit in the other direction. The Panthers could be really thin in the backfield once again, and if by chance they have to put the ball in the air more often, we aren't so sure that that bodes well for the hosts. If you can catch this spread beyond three, you're going to be obviously be in a lot better shape than you'd be in getting just a field goal. It's only a mildly sharp play, but on a week where there isn't a ton of sharp action obvious, Pittsburgh isn't a bad play.

Opening Line: Pittsburgh +3.5
Current Line: Pittsburgh +3
Public Betting Percentage: 62% on Carolina

(Rotation #480) New York -3 – This one makes all the sense in the world to us. The Bears just played in primetime last week, and they ended up coming back from behind to beat the 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Now, the public is all high and mighty on itself, and playing against a Jets team that just found a way to blow a game against Green Bay makes for the perfect square/sharp play. The public really thinks there's no reason for Gang Green to be laying points in this game, but we see it much differently. Remember that this was a Jets outfit that scored 21 points in their first three drives last week at Lambeau Field. It's a very winnable game for New York.

Opening Line: New York -3
Current Line: New York -3
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Chicago

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Saturday's games
Top games of week
Pitt rushed for 300+ yards in all three wins this year; they outrushed BC 302-142, inpressive after Eagles whacked USC in next game. Panthers are 5-2 in last seven games as home favorite. Iowa ran ball for just 131 ypg in 2-1 start, scoring 17 in each of its last two games, loss to Iowa State, fortunate win over Ball State. Hawkeyes are 3-6 in last nine games as a road dog. ACC home favorites are 2-6 vs spread in non-league games; Big 14 road underdogs are 3-4.

Third straight tough game for East Carolina squad that waxed Tar Heels 55-31 in Chapel Hill LY, gaining 603 TY as they ended four-game series skid. Pirates won at Va Tech last week, lost 33-23 at South Carolina, but they outgained Gamecocks 453-441. ECU is 9-6 as home favorite under Ruffin; they've got senior QB with 26 starts. UNC is 0-4 as a road dog under Fedora; they were outgained 509-394 by San Diego State at home in last game, but picked off last-minute pass in end zone.

Hard to tell much about Utah squad that hammered pair of cupcakes to open season; they're 3-8 vs spread in last 11 road games, 7-9 as road dog since '09. Michigan is already -7 in turnovers; they were only up 17-10 at half vs Miami O last week, but pulled away late, running ball for 276 yards- Wolverines should be concerned with passing game averaging only 194.3 ypg. they're 11-7 as home favorites under Hoke. Pac-12 teams are 2-8 vs spread on road, but covered only time they were underdog.

Middle Tennessee won five of last six games with Memphis, winning the last three meetings by 2-18-7 points. Blue Raiders gave up 718 yards in wild OT win over Western Kentucky last week, after losing 35-24 week before at Minnesota, despite outgaining Gophers 445-351. Memphis is 8-12 as home favorite since '05; they lost 42-35 at UCLA in last game, as Bruins threw for 396 yards. AAC home teams are 2-8 vs spread in their non-league games. C-USA road underdogs are 11-5 vs spread.

Rutgers won four of last five games vs Navy, but last meeting was in '11; Scarlet Knights had bitter 13-10 loss to Penn State in Big 14 debut last week, throwing five INTs (-4 TOs) in game they led 10-0 at half. Navy scored 66 points in winning last two games, after giving Buckeyes good battle in opener. Middies are 10-14 as home favorites under Niumatalolo. Rutgers is 18-8 in last 26 games as road dog, 6-2 under Flood; both their I-A games this season were decided by a FG.

Alabama won last three games with Florida by average score of 34-10, as Gators lost 31-6/31-3 in last two visits here. Florida was fortunate last week to beat Kentucky in OT, tying game on last-second play to force OT. Gators covered four of last five games as road dog, are 8-5 over last decade in that role. Bama is 3-0 but hasn't covered yet this year; they're 16-14 in last 30 games as home favorite, but 17-9 in last 26 SEC games. First road game for Gators (7-6 vs spread on road under Muschamp).

Virginia Tech won eight of last ten games with Georgia Tech, winning last four (dogs 3-1 vs spread); only one of Hokies' last five series wins was by more than 7 points. GT lost last three visits here by 3-7-3; they were held under 200 yards rushing in last two series games. Hokies were upset by ECU last week after Tech had upset Ohio State week before-- they're 5-12-1 in last 18 games as a home favorite. GT is 2-6 in its last eight games as a road underdog.

Florida State QB Winston is out for this game now, which you'd think means FSU will try to run ball, shorten game for backup QB Maguire, who threw 21 passes LY and is over his head here. Seminoles are 10-2-1 in last 13 games as home favorite; they've won three of last four vs Clemson, winning 49-37/51-14 last two years. Tigers are 1-7 in their last seven visits here, losing last three by 12-3-14; they've covered three of last four visits here- they lost 45-21 at Georgia in first road game.

Oregon State (-8) won 34-30 at San Diego State LY, passing ball for 367 yards; Beavers are 7-12 as home favorites since '09, 6-11 out of Pac-12- they have big league game next week at USC. Aztecs lost tight game at North Carolina despite outgaining UNC 509-394; they're 6-3 as a road dog under Long. Pac-12 home favorites are 6-4 vs spread outsude league play. Mountain West road underdogs are 6-8 as underdogs, 3-5 when on foreign soil. OSU has senior QB with 33 career starts.

LSU won its last 14 games with Mississippi State, covering last four by average score of 36-14; Bulldogs covered twice in last eight visits here-- five of their last six losses in Death Valley were by 18+ points. MSU is 5-10 as road dog under Mullen, but he has 8 starters back on both sides of ball and mobile QB with 10 career starts. LSU is 11-15-1 as favorite at home since '10; they shut out pair of cupcakes in last two games, after the comeback win on neutral field over Wisconsin to start season.

Miami is playing frosh QB who completed 60% of his passes with four INTs in first three games, including 31-13 loss at Louisville; Hurricanes are 1-4-1 in last six games as a road dog. Nebraska has four new starters on OL; they're 12-5 in last 17 games as home favorites. ACC underdogs are 4-1 vs spread out of conference, 2-1 on road, Big 14 home favorites are 5-8 vs spread. Cornhuskers have conference opener with Illinois on deck, but primetime on ABC makes this the bigger game.

Oklahoma won but didn't cover last two games with West Virginia; they gave up 778 yards in wild 50-49 win here two years ago, then ran ball for 316 yards in 16-7 home win LY. Sooners are 13-10 in last 23 games as a road favorite. Mountaineers gained 694 yards in 40-37 wn vs Maryland last week; senior QB Trickett is completing 75.4% of his passes- he was 29-45/365 in 33-23 loss to Alabama. over last decade, WVU is 3-4 when a home underdog- they're 9-7 overall as a dog under Holgorsen.

Cal lost last three visits to Tucson by 1-15-4 points; underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in last five series games played here. Arizona won three of last four games vs Cal- last two series games were won by total of six points; Wildcats are 6-7 as home favorites under RichRod- Nevada threw ball for 321 yards against them last week. Unusual amount of rain in Tucson this week; wonder if it disrupted their preparation? Bears are 3-7 in last ten games as a road dog, but they've already won at Northwestern this year.

Notes on rest of card
-- Missouri ran ball for 280 yards, outgained Indiana 623-475 in 45-28 win at Indiana LY. Tigers are 13-8 in last 21 games as home favorite.
-- Since 2012, Penn State is 9-4 as a home favorite.
-- Marshall is 1-9-1 as a road favorite under Holliday. Akron is 2-6 as a home underdog under Terry Bowden.
-- Favorites covered five of last seven Ball State-Toledo games; average total in last five series games is 62.2. Ball won 31-24/34-27 in last two series meetings.

-- Syracuse is 13-8 in its last 21 games as a home favorite ACC favorites are 2-6 vs spread at home, in non-league games.
-- Idaho is 4-11 in its last 15 games as a road underdog. Ohio Bobcats are 8-11 in last 19 games as a home favorite.
-- Kansas is 0-4 as home favorite under Weis. Jayhawks lost 41-3 last week at Duke. Central Michigan lost 40-3 at home to Syracuse.
-- Georgia lost 38-35 at South Carolina, plays Tennessee next week; this is sandwich game for them. Troy lost 38-35 to a I-AA team last week.

-- Wildcat in NY Post used Wisconsin (-27) as a selection this week; he is a pretty good 'capper. Bowling Green allowed 702-582 yards in its two games vs I-A teams this season.
-- Tulane is 12-10-1 in last 23 games as a road dog- they lost first road game this year in OT at Tulsa. Duke covered nine of last ten games as a home favorite.
-- Over last decade, Army is 0-6 as a road favorite. Wake Forest is young team, 3rd-youngest in country- they're playing a true freshman QB.
-- San Jose State is 9-4 in last thirteen games as a road dog. Minnesota is 5-2 in last seven game as home fave- they start league play next week.

-- Michigan State covered four of last five games with Eastern Michigan.
-- South Carolina won last five games with Vanderbilt (2-3 vs spread)-- they've won six of last seven here (one win by more than 18 points).
-- Wyoming scored 45 points in first three games, playing a I-AA team and service academy. FAU is 0-2 as road dog this year, 11-4 in their last 15 tries as a road dog.
-- Since '06, Hawai'i is 16-13 as a road underdog. Colorado is 4-2 in last six games as a home favorite.

-- Georgia State is 1-2, despite scoring 38-31-38 points in in three games. Washington beat I-AA Eastern Washington 59-52 earlier this month.
-- Southern Miss lost two games vs I-AA teams by combined 102-12; in between, they beat I-AA Alcorn State 26-20 in between.
-- Georgia Southern lost two games to ACC teams by combined total of five points. South Alabama is 1-4 as a home dog since moving to I-A.
-- SMU changed head coaches since its last game- they lost last two tilts with Texas A&M by combined score of 90-15.

-- Houston is 20-10 in last 30 games as home favorite, 6-5 under Levine. Mountain West dogs are 6-8 vs spread in non-league games, 3-5 on road.
-- Oregon won its last seven games with Washington State, but Coogs are 4-0 vs spread in last four; Ducks won last three visits here, by 25-20-49.
-- BYU (+2) lost 19-16 at Virginia LY, despite outgaining Cavs 362-223 on a rainy day. ACC non-conference underdogs are 4-1 vs spread.
-- Illinois is 6-9 in last fifteen games as home favorite, 4-4 with Beckman as coach. Texas State is 5-7 as a road underdog under Franchione.

-- Rice is 11-4 vs spread in last fifteen games as home favorite. C-USA teams are 18-7 vs spread out of conference, 8-1 at home.
-- Louisville beat FIU 72-0 LY. Panthers gave up 321 rushing yards in 42-25 home loss to Pitt last week; they lost at home to I-AA Bethune-Cookman 14-12 in season opener.
-- Cincinnati won last eight games (6-2 vs spread) vs Miami O, which is 0-5 vs spread in series games here. Miami was down only 17-10 at half in Ann Arbor last week but got buried in second half, 34-10.
-- Since 2008, Northern Illinois is 10-3 as a road underdog; they've won at Northwestern, UNLV last two weeks, Arkansas ran for 438 yards in 49-28 win at Texas Tech last week.

-- Since 2006, Arkansas State is 2-6 as a home underdog. Utah State covered five of last seven games as a road favorite.
-- New Mexico (-11) beat New Mexico State 66-17 LY, just second win for Lobos in last five series games. Aggies are 3-6 in last nine games as a home underdog.
-- UL-Lafayette was outscored 104-35 in losing its two I-A games so far this season. Sun Belt underdogs are 8-5 out of conference, 4-2 on road.