NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 5
Saturday's games
Top games of week
Michigan lost at home to Utah last week; attendance os down, Hoke is on the hot seat. Wolverines won/covered last six games with Minnesota, with last five series wins by 22+ points, but they're -10 in turnovers this year, scoring 0-10 points in two losses. Gophers ran ball for 284-380 in wins over I-A cupcakes, lost only road game 30-7 at TCU, running for 99- they completed less than half their passes in last three games.
Iowa won six of last eight games with Purdue; favorites covered four of last six in series, six of last seven at Ross-Ade Stadium. Hawkeyes won 38-14/31-21 in last two visits here; all three of their I-A games this year were decided by 4 or less points (dogs 3-0 vs spread). Boilers allowed 30+ points in all three I-A games, losing 38-17 to Central Michigan, who later lost to Kansas. Purdue is 2-6 in last eight games as a home dog.
Penn State won six in row, 10 of last 12 vs Northwestern, covering last five in series; Wildcats are 13-6 in last 19 games as road dog, but lost last three visits here, by 11-14-26 points. Lions covered last four series tilts when favored by 10+ points. NW lost by 7-8 points in only I-A games this year. Penn State is 10-4 as home favorite in post-Paterno era, with home wins this year by 18-41 points- they've allowed total of 20 points in their last three games.
Since 2004, Colorado is 12-29 as road dogs, 2-3 under MacIntyre, who is good coach but it takes time to build program. Home team covered last three Colorado-Cal games- Buffs lost 52-7 in last visit here, in '10. Cal somehow blew 45-30 lead with 4:00 left at Arizona last week, giving up 36 4th quarter points. Bears won opener at Northwestern, had 3-0 start in their grasp last week, but lost; they're 0-4 in last four games as home favorites- they're 5-14 vs spread in last 19 Pac-12 games.
Vanderbilt ran two kicks back for TDs vs South Carolina last week, so Spurrier is coaching special teams this week. Gamecocks won last two games with Missouri 31-10/27-24; they're 13-10 as home favorite, 0-2 this year- dogs covered all four of their '14 games. Missouri lost 31-27 at home to Indiana last week, giving up 241 rushing yards. Tigers covered seven of last nine as a road dog, 10 of last 13 when coming off a loss.
Western Kentucky held Navy to 86 rushing yards in 19-7 loss LY, first win in three series games for WKU, which lost both road games in 2014, despite scoring 34-47 points. Hilltoppers gave up 323 rushing yards in OT loss at Middle Tennessee; they're 7-3 in last 10 games as a road dog, but 0-2 this year. Navy lost home opener to Rutgers last week, rivalry game with Air Force is next week; they're 13-23 as home fave since '04.
Notre Dame won first three games by 16+ points; they've got a revenge game with Stanford next week. Irish are 5-5 vs spread on neutral fields in Kelly era. Syracuse lost by two TDs at home to Maryland last week, despite outgaining Terps 589-369- they needed OT to beat Villanova, a I-AA team- they've covered last five games on a neutral field, are 3-4 as underdog under Shafer. ACC teams covered six of eight as an underdog out of conference.
Texas A&M beat Arkansas 58-10/45-33 last two years, after losing three in row to Hogs before that; Aggies scored 49.3 ppg in its three I-A wins, one of which was at South Carolina. Arkansas scored 101 points in wins last two weeks, running ball for 438-212 yards; they are 3-9 in their last 12 games as a road underdog, 2-4 under Bielema. Over last decade, A&M is 2-10 vs spread on neutral fields, 1-2 under Sumlin- they're 7-10 as a favorite in Sumlin era.
Oregon State lost seven visits to USC (3-4 vs spread); underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in last seven series games- Beavers upset USC couple times in Corvallis. Trojans are 16-9 vs spread in game following last 25 losses; they gave up 452 rushing yards in last game, loss at BC. Oregon State has senior QB with 34 starts; they've covered last seven games as a road underdog. USC covered 11 of last 17 games as a home favorite- they're starting three sophomores on offensive line.
Stanford won five of last six games vs Washington, with last two decided by total of 7 points; Cardinal won three of last four visits here, losing in last visit here, 17-13. Huskies held Stanford under 280 total yards in last two meetings. Cardinal is 14-5 in last 19 games as road favorite, 10-4 in Shaw era; they're visiting Notre Dame, better not overlook Pac-12 rival that is 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games as home dog. Wary of Washington defense that gave up 52 points to I-AA Wastern Washington.
17-point spread is the biggest in Georgia-Tennessee rivalry in at least 35 years; Dawgs won last four series games, last three by 8 or less points. Vols lost last three visits between hedges by 7-27-12 points, they're 4-1 vs spread in last five visits here, 3-9 in last 12 games as road dog, 10-16 in game following a loss. Georgia is 15-11 as home favorite, scoring 111 points in pair of home wins this year- they gave up 59 points in splitting rivalry games with Clemson/South Carolina.
Duke (+3.5) beat Miami 48-30 LY, ending 8-game series skid; they're 3-0 in last three games as road underdog, 4-0 this season vs cupcakes, scoring average of 43.5 ppg. Miami is 8-9 as home favorite under Golden- they lost 41-31 at Nebraska last week, giving up 343 rushing yards. Duke lost last four visits here (2-2 vs spread) with all four losses by 10+ points. Miami is 8-5 vs spread in game following a loss, 0-3 in last three. Duke is 10-2-1 vs spread in game following last 13 wins.
Boise State beat Air Force 42-20/37-26 in last two meetings, gaining 956 total yards; Broncos are 23-9 in last 32 games as home favorite covering at UConn in only true road game this year. Boise doesn't have a senior starting on OL. Air Force has rivalry game with Navy on deck; they've failed to cover last four tries as a home dog. Falcons threw ball 47 times in last two games, lot for them- they've allowed 696 passing yards in last two games, losing 17-13 at Wyoming, winning 48-38 at Georgia State.
Notes on rest of the card
-- Michigan State is 4-10 in last 14 games as home favorite; their first league game is next week, when Nebraska visits. Mountain West teams are 3-10 as non-conference road dogs.
-- Maryland won at Syracuse last week, despite being outgained by 220 yards. Under Edsall, Terps are 9-13 vs spread in conference games.
-- Baylor beat Iowa State 71-7 in Waco LY, but lost last two visits here, both by 14 points. Cyclones are 9-10-1 as home dog under Rhoads.
-- Wisconsin opens conference play next week, could be looking ahead. South Florida covered 14 of last 20 games as a road underdog.
-- Virginia is 2-8-3 in last 13 games as a home favorite. MAC teams are 8-11 as road underdogs in non-conference games.
-- Virginia Tech got upset in each of its last two home games. Western Michigan is 9-7 in last 16 games as a road dog; they scored 34-45 in two I-A road games this season.
-- Underdogs covered last six Temple-UConn games, winning last three in series SU.
-- Akron is 7-4 as road underdogs under Bowden. Pitt got upset at home by Iowa last week, despite outgaining Hawkeyes by 124 yards.
-- Rutgers covered all three I-A games this year, all as dogs in games that were decided by 7 or less points- they're 6-11 as favorites under Flood.
-- Toledo won its last four games with Central Michigan, all by 11+, as favorites covered five of last six series games.
-- Vanderbilt won its last three games with Kentucky by combined score of 100-14; favorites covered seven of last eight series games.
-- Wake Forest has 3rd-youngest team in country; they lost both road games this season, 17-10 (+2) at ULM, 36-24 (+14) at Utah State.
-- Boston College had 452 rushing yards in upset of USC couple weeks ago. Colorado State is 4-6 as a road underdog under McElwain.
-- Favorites covered five of last six Miami-Buffalo games; Bulls crushed Miami 44-7 LY, running ball for 311 yards.
-- Texas State gave up 954 total yards, 571 on ground in losses by 14-7 points to Illinois/Navy. Sun Belt road underdogs are 8-4 vs spread.
-- UTEP has run ball for 277+ yards in all three games, with only loss at Texas Tech 30-26- they beat both New Mexico schools, rivalry games.
-- Louisiana Tech won two of three I-A road games to open season, then lost home opener to I-AA team. Auburn won its two home games by 24-46 points; they had tough win last week, play LSU next week.
-- Bowling Green won its last two games with UMass 28-7/24-0, but the Falcons allowed 56.3 ppg in their three I-A games this season.
-- SMU is toast for this year, having already fired its coach, but they are 6-2 vs spread in last eight games vs TCU, its local rival.
-- Favorites covered three of last four Rice-Southern Miss games, with average total of 69.5. Owls beat USM 44-17 last year, despite being outgained by two yards for the game.
-- North Carolina gave up 70 points at East Carolina last week; they lost last three visits to Death Valley, by 21-45-8 points. Clemson is starting a true freshman QB this week.
-- Texas has already thrown nine kids off team this year and had starting QB quit (concussions); they won last 10 games vs Kansas, going 7-3 vs spread in those games.
-- Winston is back for Florida State, which lost last two visits to Raleigh, in series where three of last five games were decided by 4 or less points.
-- South Alabama scored total of nine points in losing last two games; it allowed 623 rushing yards in those games. Idaho is 0-3 despite scoring an average of 29.3 ppg.
-- Cincinnati visits Ohio State with a heavy heart; one of their players died in a motorcycle accident this week. Teams last met in 2006.
-- UAB (-6.5) won 27-24 at FIU last year, outrushing Panthers 217-94. Blazers lost 47-34 at Miss State, gaining 548 yards- impressive.
-- Ole Miss won last five games with Memphis (3-1-1 vs spread); this is little bit of local rivalry. Memphis lost 42-35 at UCLA; in no way are they a pushover anymore.
-- FAU had 19-17 lead and ball on first down with 2:09 left last week vs Wyoming; they fumbled on first down, gave up 88-yard pass next play and lost 20-19 in shocking fashion. tough game to bounce back from.
-- UL-Monroe won its last three games with Troy by 14-28-12 points. Warhawks won their first two home games, by seven points each.
-- Home side covered last three Washington State-Utah games; Coogs got beat 49-6 in last visit here. Wazzu was outgained 501-499 in 38-31 loss to Oregon last week- they played their hearts out.
-- LSU lost at home to Miss State last week, New Mexico State lost by 3 to rival New Mexico. Tigers are trying to find a consistent QB.
-- Nebraska gained 521 yards in 39-19 win (-7.5) over Illinois LY; Illini gave up 34 points to WKU, 35 to Texas State- this could get ugly.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 5
Saturday's games
Top games of week
Michigan lost at home to Utah last week; attendance os down, Hoke is on the hot seat. Wolverines won/covered last six games with Minnesota, with last five series wins by 22+ points, but they're -10 in turnovers this year, scoring 0-10 points in two losses. Gophers ran ball for 284-380 in wins over I-A cupcakes, lost only road game 30-7 at TCU, running for 99- they completed less than half their passes in last three games.
Iowa won six of last eight games with Purdue; favorites covered four of last six in series, six of last seven at Ross-Ade Stadium. Hawkeyes won 38-14/31-21 in last two visits here; all three of their I-A games this year were decided by 4 or less points (dogs 3-0 vs spread). Boilers allowed 30+ points in all three I-A games, losing 38-17 to Central Michigan, who later lost to Kansas. Purdue is 2-6 in last eight games as a home dog.
Penn State won six in row, 10 of last 12 vs Northwestern, covering last five in series; Wildcats are 13-6 in last 19 games as road dog, but lost last three visits here, by 11-14-26 points. Lions covered last four series tilts when favored by 10+ points. NW lost by 7-8 points in only I-A games this year. Penn State is 10-4 as home favorite in post-Paterno era, with home wins this year by 18-41 points- they've allowed total of 20 points in their last three games.
Since 2004, Colorado is 12-29 as road dogs, 2-3 under MacIntyre, who is good coach but it takes time to build program. Home team covered last three Colorado-Cal games- Buffs lost 52-7 in last visit here, in '10. Cal somehow blew 45-30 lead with 4:00 left at Arizona last week, giving up 36 4th quarter points. Bears won opener at Northwestern, had 3-0 start in their grasp last week, but lost; they're 0-4 in last four games as home favorites- they're 5-14 vs spread in last 19 Pac-12 games.
Vanderbilt ran two kicks back for TDs vs South Carolina last week, so Spurrier is coaching special teams this week. Gamecocks won last two games with Missouri 31-10/27-24; they're 13-10 as home favorite, 0-2 this year- dogs covered all four of their '14 games. Missouri lost 31-27 at home to Indiana last week, giving up 241 rushing yards. Tigers covered seven of last nine as a road dog, 10 of last 13 when coming off a loss.
Western Kentucky held Navy to 86 rushing yards in 19-7 loss LY, first win in three series games for WKU, which lost both road games in 2014, despite scoring 34-47 points. Hilltoppers gave up 323 rushing yards in OT loss at Middle Tennessee; they're 7-3 in last 10 games as a road dog, but 0-2 this year. Navy lost home opener to Rutgers last week, rivalry game with Air Force is next week; they're 13-23 as home fave since '04.
Notre Dame won first three games by 16+ points; they've got a revenge game with Stanford next week. Irish are 5-5 vs spread on neutral fields in Kelly era. Syracuse lost by two TDs at home to Maryland last week, despite outgaining Terps 589-369- they needed OT to beat Villanova, a I-AA team- they've covered last five games on a neutral field, are 3-4 as underdog under Shafer. ACC teams covered six of eight as an underdog out of conference.
Texas A&M beat Arkansas 58-10/45-33 last two years, after losing three in row to Hogs before that; Aggies scored 49.3 ppg in its three I-A wins, one of which was at South Carolina. Arkansas scored 101 points in wins last two weeks, running ball for 438-212 yards; they are 3-9 in their last 12 games as a road underdog, 2-4 under Bielema. Over last decade, A&M is 2-10 vs spread on neutral fields, 1-2 under Sumlin- they're 7-10 as a favorite in Sumlin era.
Oregon State lost seven visits to USC (3-4 vs spread); underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in last seven series games- Beavers upset USC couple times in Corvallis. Trojans are 16-9 vs spread in game following last 25 losses; they gave up 452 rushing yards in last game, loss at BC. Oregon State has senior QB with 34 starts; they've covered last seven games as a road underdog. USC covered 11 of last 17 games as a home favorite- they're starting three sophomores on offensive line.
Stanford won five of last six games vs Washington, with last two decided by total of 7 points; Cardinal won three of last four visits here, losing in last visit here, 17-13. Huskies held Stanford under 280 total yards in last two meetings. Cardinal is 14-5 in last 19 games as road favorite, 10-4 in Shaw era; they're visiting Notre Dame, better not overlook Pac-12 rival that is 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games as home dog. Wary of Washington defense that gave up 52 points to I-AA Wastern Washington.
17-point spread is the biggest in Georgia-Tennessee rivalry in at least 35 years; Dawgs won last four series games, last three by 8 or less points. Vols lost last three visits between hedges by 7-27-12 points, they're 4-1 vs spread in last five visits here, 3-9 in last 12 games as road dog, 10-16 in game following a loss. Georgia is 15-11 as home favorite, scoring 111 points in pair of home wins this year- they gave up 59 points in splitting rivalry games with Clemson/South Carolina.
Duke (+3.5) beat Miami 48-30 LY, ending 8-game series skid; they're 3-0 in last three games as road underdog, 4-0 this season vs cupcakes, scoring average of 43.5 ppg. Miami is 8-9 as home favorite under Golden- they lost 41-31 at Nebraska last week, giving up 343 rushing yards. Duke lost last four visits here (2-2 vs spread) with all four losses by 10+ points. Miami is 8-5 vs spread in game following a loss, 0-3 in last three. Duke is 10-2-1 vs spread in game following last 13 wins.
Boise State beat Air Force 42-20/37-26 in last two meetings, gaining 956 total yards; Broncos are 23-9 in last 32 games as home favorite covering at UConn in only true road game this year. Boise doesn't have a senior starting on OL. Air Force has rivalry game with Navy on deck; they've failed to cover last four tries as a home dog. Falcons threw ball 47 times in last two games, lot for them- they've allowed 696 passing yards in last two games, losing 17-13 at Wyoming, winning 48-38 at Georgia State.
Notes on rest of the card
-- Michigan State is 4-10 in last 14 games as home favorite; their first league game is next week, when Nebraska visits. Mountain West teams are 3-10 as non-conference road dogs.
-- Maryland won at Syracuse last week, despite being outgained by 220 yards. Under Edsall, Terps are 9-13 vs spread in conference games.
-- Baylor beat Iowa State 71-7 in Waco LY, but lost last two visits here, both by 14 points. Cyclones are 9-10-1 as home dog under Rhoads.
-- Wisconsin opens conference play next week, could be looking ahead. South Florida covered 14 of last 20 games as a road underdog.
-- Virginia is 2-8-3 in last 13 games as a home favorite. MAC teams are 8-11 as road underdogs in non-conference games.
-- Virginia Tech got upset in each of its last two home games. Western Michigan is 9-7 in last 16 games as a road dog; they scored 34-45 in two I-A road games this season.
-- Underdogs covered last six Temple-UConn games, winning last three in series SU.
-- Akron is 7-4 as road underdogs under Bowden. Pitt got upset at home by Iowa last week, despite outgaining Hawkeyes by 124 yards.
-- Rutgers covered all three I-A games this year, all as dogs in games that were decided by 7 or less points- they're 6-11 as favorites under Flood.
-- Toledo won its last four games with Central Michigan, all by 11+, as favorites covered five of last six series games.
-- Vanderbilt won its last three games with Kentucky by combined score of 100-14; favorites covered seven of last eight series games.
-- Wake Forest has 3rd-youngest team in country; they lost both road games this season, 17-10 (+2) at ULM, 36-24 (+14) at Utah State.
-- Boston College had 452 rushing yards in upset of USC couple weeks ago. Colorado State is 4-6 as a road underdog under McElwain.
-- Favorites covered five of last six Miami-Buffalo games; Bulls crushed Miami 44-7 LY, running ball for 311 yards.
-- Texas State gave up 954 total yards, 571 on ground in losses by 14-7 points to Illinois/Navy. Sun Belt road underdogs are 8-4 vs spread.
-- UTEP has run ball for 277+ yards in all three games, with only loss at Texas Tech 30-26- they beat both New Mexico schools, rivalry games.
-- Louisiana Tech won two of three I-A road games to open season, then lost home opener to I-AA team. Auburn won its two home games by 24-46 points; they had tough win last week, play LSU next week.
-- Bowling Green won its last two games with UMass 28-7/24-0, but the Falcons allowed 56.3 ppg in their three I-A games this season.
-- SMU is toast for this year, having already fired its coach, but they are 6-2 vs spread in last eight games vs TCU, its local rival.
-- Favorites covered three of last four Rice-Southern Miss games, with average total of 69.5. Owls beat USM 44-17 last year, despite being outgained by two yards for the game.
-- North Carolina gave up 70 points at East Carolina last week; they lost last three visits to Death Valley, by 21-45-8 points. Clemson is starting a true freshman QB this week.
-- Texas has already thrown nine kids off team this year and had starting QB quit (concussions); they won last 10 games vs Kansas, going 7-3 vs spread in those games.
-- Winston is back for Florida State, which lost last two visits to Raleigh, in series where three of last five games were decided by 4 or less points.
-- South Alabama scored total of nine points in losing last two games; it allowed 623 rushing yards in those games. Idaho is 0-3 despite scoring an average of 29.3 ppg.
-- Cincinnati visits Ohio State with a heavy heart; one of their players died in a motorcycle accident this week. Teams last met in 2006.
-- UAB (-6.5) won 27-24 at FIU last year, outrushing Panthers 217-94. Blazers lost 47-34 at Miss State, gaining 548 yards- impressive.
-- Ole Miss won last five games with Memphis (3-1-1 vs spread); this is little bit of local rivalry. Memphis lost 42-35 at UCLA; in no way are they a pushover anymore.
-- FAU had 19-17 lead and ball on first down with 2:09 left last week vs Wyoming; they fumbled on first down, gave up 88-yard pass next play and lost 20-19 in shocking fashion. tough game to bounce back from.
-- UL-Monroe won its last three games with Troy by 14-28-12 points. Warhawks won their first two home games, by seven points each.
-- Home side covered last three Washington State-Utah games; Coogs got beat 49-6 in last visit here. Wazzu was outgained 501-499 in 38-31 loss to Oregon last week- they played their hearts out.
-- LSU lost at home to Miss State last week, New Mexico State lost by 3 to rival New Mexico. Tigers are trying to find a consistent QB.
-- Nebraska gained 521 yards in 39-19 win (-7.5) over Illinois LY; Illini gave up 34 points to WKU, 35 to Texas State- this could get ugly.
